As of 12/07/2023
  Indus: 36,117 +62.95 +0.2%  
  Trans: 15,299 +69.26 +0.5%  
  Utils: 878 -1.01 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 14,340 +193.28 +1.4%  
  S&P 500: 4,586 +36.25 +0.8%  
YTD
 +9.0%  
 +14.2%  
-9.2%  
 +37.0%  
 +19.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023
As of 12/07/2023
  Indus: 36,117 +62.95 +0.2%  
  Trans: 15,299 +69.26 +0.5%  
  Utils: 878 -1.01 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 14,340 +193.28 +1.4%  
  S&P 500: 4,586 +36.25 +0.8%  
YTD
 +9.0%  
 +14.2%  
-9.2%  
 +37.0%  
 +19.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023

Bulkowski on Chart Pattern Performance over Decades

Statistics from 7/25/2019. Revised 8/25/2020.

This article compares the performance of chart patterns over the decades. Do chart patterns perform worse or better now than in decades past? Let's find out.

Note: Because the rank and performance shown in the table only applies to the associated decade, the results will differ from other pages on this website.

Time Performance: Up Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median rises from the breakout to the ultimate high. There are 56 patterns shown.

 

Up Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD®, bearish***42%44%43%1922%25%22%
AB=CD®, bullish***38%43%36%3720%24%19%
Bat®, bearish***42%50%38%3022%31%24%
Bat®, bullish***43%55%42%2226%24%26%
Big W44%52%46%1130%31%28%
Broadening bottom41%45%45%1420%21%25%
Broadening top40%47%34%4323%26%15%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending39%50%34%4325%25%19%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending34%53%36%3723%28%18%
Broadening wedge, ascending44%43%41%2330%29%18%
Broadening wedge, descending41%44%38%3026%30%24%
Bump-and-run reversal bottom44%67%65%127%47%47%
Butterfly®, bearish***44%50%43%1929%29%23%
Butterfly®, bullish***49%*44%31%5127%26%18%
Crab®, bearish***41%45%45%1424%28%28%
Crab®, bullish***42%*35%*48%*924%*30%*41%*
Cup with handle49%54%55%632%36%37%
Diamond bottom45%39%40%2634%25%19%
Diamond top24%37%29%5219%26%12%
Double bottom, Adam & Adam45%62%35%4026%29%17%
Double bottom, Adam & Eve44%49%33%4726%32%14%
Double bottom, Eve & Adam39%49%36%3725%32%21%
Double bottom, Eve & Eve43%58%37%3522%35%18%
Diving board91%56%58%445%37%38%
Flags**14%12%6%569%7%4%
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
Flags, high and tight43%37%34%4322%27%17%
Gartley, bear***39%49%49%724%31%26%
Gartley, bull***46%58%41%2322%33%24%
Head-and-shoulders bottom45%46%44%1730%31%23%
Head-and-shoulders bottom, complex41%45%62%229%28%35%
Horn bottom55%70%49%728%39%29%
Island bottoms26%30%37%3511%19%11%
Island, long29%35%34%4313%23%16%
Measured move down41%52%40%2623%28%18%
Measured move up36%50%38%3019%28%16%
Pennants**10%7%4%578%5%3%
Pipe bottom53%60%46%1128%35%27%
Rectangle bottoms48%52%40%2627%28%18%
Rectangle Tops55%59%38%3031%32%18%
Roof30%46%32%4915%24%14%
Roof, inverted29%29%44%1721%13%14%
Rounding bottom55%66%56%536%41%39%
Rounding top53%78%60%333%41%43%
Scallop, ascending38%54%41%2325%36%27%
Scallop, ascending and inverted43%55%38%3028%33%23%
Scallop, descending37%39%45%1421%27%24%
Scallop, descending and inverted38%53%46%1129%30%24%
Three rising valleys45%50%47%1030%32%28%
Triangle, ascending47%47%35%4024%20%15%
Triangle, descending51%37%27%5531%19%12%
Triangle, symmetrical41%38%29%5224%21%12%
Triple bottoms43%45%43%1928%25%22%
V-bottoms44%41%33%4726%21%17%
V-bottoms, extended40%44%35%4024%26%21%
Wedge, falling34%47%32%4919%20%12%
Wedge, rising31%41%39%2918%25%21%
Wolfe wave®, bullish28%30%28%5412%12%12%
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.
** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).
*** Although I show the traditional way of measuring performance (the move from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate high) for Fibonacci patterns, that's not how performance is supposed to be measured for these patterns. The performance results are misleading and should not be compared with other non-Fibonacci-based patterns.

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Time Performance: Down Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median declines from the breakout to the ultimate low. There are 53 patterns shown.

Down Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Decline2010sMedian Decline
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD®, bearish***14%13%12%3811%9%8%
AB=CD®, bullish***15%13%14%2711%8%10%
Bat®, bearish***16%12%12%3814%11%7%
Bat®, bullish***18%13%17%814%7%14%
Big M19%15%16%917%13%13%
Broadening bottom17%13%16%915%10%10%
Broadening top16%13%13%3413%9%8%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending16%13%14%2711%9%9%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending16%13%16%914%10%11%
Broadening wedge, ascending17%11%13%3413%8%8%
Broadening wedge, descending17%12%14%2713%8%10%
Bump-and-run reversal top19%18%19%117%15%15%
Butterfly®, bearish***14%12%16%99%9%9%
Butterfly®, bullish***18%16%*16%916%12%12%
Crab®, bearish***17%22%*15%1916%16%*9%
Crab®, bullish***16%13%*16%913%9%*12%
Cup with handle, inverted17%16%19%114%15%13%
Diamond bottom23%14%15%1922%12%11%
Diamond top20%15%14%2718%12%10%
Double top, Adam & Adam16%13%12%3813%10%8%
Double top, Adam & Eve17%13%11%4514%10%8%
Double top, Eve & Adam15%12%12%3813%9%9%
Double top, Eve & Eve16%13%10%4913%11%7%
Flags**11%8%6%529%7%5%
 Average Decline2010sMedian Decline
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
Gartley, bear***16%17%15%1914%13%12%
Gartley, bull***17%13%15%1915%9%12%
Head-and-shoulders tops20%14%15%1917%11%10%
Head-and-shoulders tops, complex20%13%16%918%9%11%
Horn tops19%18%19%116%14%15%
Island, long17%13%13%3414%11%9%
Island tops14%15%12%3810%11%8%
Measured move down13%12%11%459%8%8%
Measured move up13%13%11%4510%9%8%
Pennants**9%6%5%536%4%3%
Pipe top20%18%18%417%14%14%
Rectangle bottoms15%14%18%412%10%12%
Rectangle Tops16%10%12%3815%7%7%
Roof18%9%14%2717%6%12%
Roof, inverted17%12%13%3413%10%10%
Rounding top21%16%18%420%13%15%
Scallop, ascending15%13%16%912%11%12%
Scallop, descending18%13%16%916%10%11%
Scallop, descending and inverted18%12%14%2715%9%11%
Three falling peaks17%13%15%1915%9%11%
Triangle, ascending17%11%11%4515%6%6%
Triangle, descending16%14%16%914%9%10%
Triangle, symmetrical14%12%12%3811%8%7%
Triple tops17%13%14%2714%9%10%
V-tops16%14%15%1912%10%11%
V-top, extended20%18%18%417%14%14%
Wedge, falling16%11%15%1910%8%11%
Wedge, rising13%8%7%519%4%4%
Wolfe wave®, bearish12%11%10%498%7%6%
 Average Decline2010sMedian Decline
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 

* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.

** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).
*** Although I show the traditional way of measuring performance (the move from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate low) for Fibonacci patterns, that's not how performance is supposed to be measured for these patterns. The performance results are misleading and should not be compared with other non-Fibonacci-based patterns.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

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