As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Note as of 9/20/21: The following statistics have not been updated with more recent information, so they are outdated. This page provides a ranking of patterns, sorted by various means (performance, failure rate, performance over the decades) but not like the list below. However, the pages at the link have been updated recently.
| Pattern: Up Breakouts | 1 Month Gain | 2 Month Gain | 3 Month Gain |
| High and tight flags | 22% | 21% | 21% |
| Eve & Eve double bottom | 9% | 12% | 13% |
| Scallop, ascending and inverted | 11% | 12% | 13% |
| Rectangle Bottom | 8% | 11% | 14% |
| Adam & Adam double bottom | 7% | 10% | 12% |
| Adam & Eve double bottom | 7% | 10% | 10% |
| Eve & Adam double bottom | 7% | 10% | 14% |
| Falling wedge | 8% | 10% | 9% |
| Rounded top | 7% | 10% | 14% |
| Flag | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| Pattern: Down Breakouts | 1 Month Loss | 2 Month Loss | 3 Month Loss |
| Complex head-and-shoulders top | -8% | -10% | -10% |
| Head-and-shoulders top | -7% | -8% | -7% |
| Diamond top | -8% | -7% | -6% |
| Diamond bottom | -10% | -5% | -4% |
| Scallop, descending | -6% | -5% | -4% |
| Adam & Adam double top | -6% | -4% | -3% |
| Right-angled and descending broadening formation | -5% | -4% | 0% |
| Rounded top | -6% | -4% | -4% |
| Scallop, descending and inverted | -4% | -4% | -4% |
| Triangle, descending | -5% | -4% | -3% |
The table shows the best performing chart patterns for upward breakouts (top half) and downward breakouts (bottom half), sorted by the 2 month's performance column.
I scanned my database of chart patterns (the popular ones) and found over 30,000 samples. Then I measured the price move 1, 2, 3 and 6 months after the breakout. However, I show only a maximum of 3 months in the table.
This measurement technique is different than the one I used in my books. There, I measured the move assuming a perfect trade, from breakout to ultimate high or low (after which price dropped or rose by at least 20%).
This table is just another way of slicing the same information. However, it does contain surprises.
Notice that the cup with handle doesn't appear in the list. That's because performance is poor -- it ranked 11th, so it didn't make the top 10.
Click on the associated link for more information about a chart pattern.
-- Thomas Bulkowski.
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