As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Statistics updated on 8/26/2020.
For more information on this pattern, read
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition
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The bump-and-run reversal top is a chart pattern that is an excellent good performer in both bull and bear markets, judging by the high average decline after the breakout. The chart pattern was discovered by Thomas Bulkowski in 1996 while researching price prediction techniques using trendlines. Originally called the bump-and-run formation (BARF), the name was changed for obvious reasons.
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Bump-and-Run Reversal Top
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The above numbers are based on 1,488 perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.
Consult the associated figure on the right.
| Characteristic | Discussion | 
BARR Top |
| Arithmetic scale | Use the arithmetic chart, not the semi logarithmic one because you will use it to measure vertical distances. | |
| Rising trendline | A trendline connecting the price valleys rises upward at 30 to 45 degrees, but this varies with scaling. Do not use horizontal or near-horizontal trendlines and avoid patterns with steep (over 60 degrees) trendlines. | |
| Lead-in phase | The lead-in is the section at the start of the pattern and it precedes the bump phase. Price follows a rising trendline. The figure to the lower right shows an example. | |
| Lead-in height | The tallest distance in the first quarter of the chart pattern, measured vertically, is the lead-in height. Must be at least $1, but preferably $2 or more. The chart on the right shows the measure between the two blue dots, vertically, from trendline to price low. | |
| Lead-in duration | At least a month, but be flexible. | |
| Bump phase | Price rises in the bump phase following a steeper trendline (45 to 60 degrees) on high volume usually after a favorable event (earnings report, rating upgrades). Price rounds over and eventually returns to the lower, 30-degree trendline setup in the lead-in phase. The chart on the right shows an example. | |
| Bump height | Measured from the peak to the 30-degree trendline, it should be at least twice the lead-in height (but be flexible). The chart on the right shows an example between the two blue dots. | |
| Downhill run | After price returns to the 30-degree trendline, price may bump up and form additional bumps or slide along the trendline before plunging lower in a downhill run. The figure to the right shows one bump up followed by the downhill run. | |
| Volume | High at the start of the pattern, at the bump start, and at the downward breakout (where price pierces the 30-degree trendline). | |
| Confirmation | The pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes below the 30-degree trendline. If price does not close below the trendline, then you do NOT have a valid pattern. |
Consult the associated figure on the right.
| Trading Tactic | Explanation | 
The Measure Rule |
| Measure rule | Use the bottom of the chart pattern (A) as the target. | |
| Breakout | Sell an existing holding or sell short when price closes below the 30-degree trendline AB at B. | |
| Confirmation | Wait for confirmation before placing a trade. | |
| Warning line | Draw a line parallel to the 30-degree trendline and lead-in height above it (the lowest line parallel to AB). The line warns that the stock is making a move and is entering the sell zone, an area between the warning and sell lines. | |
| Sell line | Draw additional trendlines parallel to the warning line, each lead-in height above it (E, shown as the green arrows). Consider selling when price touches the sell line, especially if the bump is narrow not rounded. Delay selling if price continues moving up. When the stock rounds over and touches a lower sell line (C), then close out your position. The figure to the right shows the sell lines and price piercing a lower sell line, suggesting it is time to take profit. | |
| Pullbacks | Pullbacks hurt performance. The link to the left defines a pullback, and this link shows performance. | |
| Dual bumps | 18% to 21% show additional bumps after the first one. The second bump would begin at B, rise up, round over and crash through the 30-degree trendline for a downward breakout. |
The above figure shows an example of a bump and run reversal top chart pattern, highlighted by the blue trendline.
Price begins the bump and run reversal at A and moves up in a confined trading range until the bump phase begins at B. Price zooms upward and then moves in a wide trading range, forming a descending triangle chart pattern (red lines). Price tumbles downward out of the descending triangle and pierces the 30-degree trendline at C, staging a breakout.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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