Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22

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Monday 11/28/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, we see what I call an ugly double bottom. That pattern occurs when the right bottom is at least 5% above the left one. However, when we're talking about an index, I don't use the 5% rule.

The double bottom confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms, shown here by a horizontal red line at C.

A throwback happens at D which brings the index back to the breakout price before it resumes its upward move.

At E, and the green line, I show overhead resistance setup by what looks like a tight knot of resistance. We'll have to see if the index turns lower or stalls there.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 45.41 points.
Tuesday: Up 397.82 points.
Wednesday: Up 95.96 points.
Friday: Up 152.97 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 601.34 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 80.3 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 60.78 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.1% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     19.8% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     29.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     11.3% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     16.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     15.3% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,124  34,236  34,311  34,423  34,498 
Weekly  33,270  33,809  34,098  34,636  34,925 
Monthly  28,800  31,573  32,980  35,754  37,160 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,014  4,020  4,027  4,033  4,040 
Weekly  3,897  3,962  3,998  4,062  4,099 
Monthly  3,516  3,771  3,903  4,158  4,289 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,176  11,201  11,231  11,256  11,287 
Weekly  10,836  11,031  11,171  11,366  11,506 
Monthly  9,764  10,495  10,994  11,725  12,224 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALB, DOX, AEE, APH, ATR, ATO, ADSK, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BG, CALM, CPB, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, EXC, FE, FISV, FMC, FWRD, FRD, IT, GIS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IPAR, ISRG, KBAL, LH, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NOC, OGE, OXM, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RL, RMBS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, SO, SWX, SR, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TSCO, TZOO, VRTX, VMC, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ITA, IDU, IHF, EWK, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PJP, IXC, MXI, XLY, GLD, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Securities Brokerage2. Securities Brokerage
3. Metal Fabricating3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Machinery4. Metal Fabricating
5. Food Processing5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing6. Machinery
7. Retail Store7. Retail Store
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Food Processing
9. Biotechnology9. Petroleum (Integrated)
10. IT Services10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Investment Co. (Foreign)50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Short ETFs52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electronics
56. Medical Supplies56. Medical Supplies
57. Electronics57. Chemical (Basic)
58. Chemical (Basic)58. Short ETFs
59. E-Commerce59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/25/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AJRD, AES, ALB, AMWD, ADM, ATO, ADSK, AXS, AZTA, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BFH, BMY, BG, CACI, CPB, CNP, CHS, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, ^DJT, EIX, EPAM, RE, FDS, FAST, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, GIS, GNW, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IIIN, NVTA, KALU, KMB, LH, LRCX, RAMP, L, LOW, MCHX, MRTN, MU, MS, NBR, NTAP, NOC, OMCL, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PLXS, PFG, PGR, KWR, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SO, SWX, SCS, TGT, TDOC, TKR, TREX, VRTX, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, MXI, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag      11/15/202211/23/2022Electronics
ACNPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022IT Services
AMWDHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202211/04/2022Building Materials
ABCDiamond top      10/28/202211/17/2022Biotechnology
ANIKCup with handle      03/03/202211/10/2022Biotechnology
BSETUgly double bottom      10/07/202210/24/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
BAXPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Medical Supplies
BIGUgly double bottom      10/24/202211/09/2022Retail Store
BAPennant      11/11/202211/16/2022Aerospace/Defense
BLDRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Retail Building Supply
BGCup with handle      08/30/202211/08/2022Food Processing
CBTDiamond top      10/26/202211/21/2022Chemical (Diversified)
CALBroadening top      10/25/202211/23/2022Shoe
CPBPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Food Processing
CENXBig W      09/30/202210/12/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CFPipe bottom      09/19/202209/26/2022Chemical (Basic)
CHDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/10/202211/04/2022Household Products
CSCOUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Computers and Peripherals
CLNEPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
CLXUgly double bottom      10/10/202211/03/2022Household Products
CAGPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Food Processing
GLWThree Rising Valleys      09/30/202210/25/2022Telecom. Equipment
CROXPipe bottom      10/24/202210/31/2022Shoe
CCRNPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Human Resources
DHRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Precision Instrument
BOOMDiamond top      10/31/202211/14/2022Metal Fabricating
EBAYFlag      11/14/202211/23/2022Internet
EQTPipe bottom      10/17/202210/24/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Electric Utility (East)
FMCTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202211/21/2022Chemical (Basic)
FORMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Semiconductor
FDPUgly double bottom      09/29/202210/20/2022Food Processing
GPSFlag, high and tight      09/30/202211/22/2022Apparel
GOOGLFlag      11/16/202211/22/2022Internet
HSCFlag, high and tight      09/30/202211/23/2022Diversified Co.
HTLDPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HONFlag      11/10/202211/21/2022Aerospace/Defense
JBHTCup with handle      08/16/202211/15/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCTriple bottom      09/01/202210/31/2022Machinery
IDXXCup with handle      08/08/202211/14/2022Drug
NSPTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/202211/17/2022Human Resources
KSSPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Retail Store
RAMPFlag      11/15/202211/23/2022Computer Software and Svcs
MRODouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/07/202211/14/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
MLIThree Rising Valleys      09/23/202211/03/2022Metal Fabricating
NFLXPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Internet
NJRUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
NKEPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Shoe
NIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (Central)
JWNPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Retail Store
OXYDiamond top      10/26/202211/16/2022Petroleum (Producing)
PFEUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/11/2022Drug
PPGPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Chemical (Diversified)
QCOMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Telecom. Equipment
RCKYCup with handle      09/12/202211/11/2022Shoe
SEEPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Packaging and Container
SKXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/30/202210/27/2022Shoe
SWNRoof, inverted      10/05/202211/16/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
SRUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/07/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
TGTUgly double bottom      10/14/202211/09/2022Retail Store
TECHThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/01/2022Biotechnology
TFXTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202211/22/2022Diversified Co.
RIGFlag, high and tight      09/23/202211/15/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VRSNRounding bottom      08/18/202210/28/2022Internet
VUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/09/2022Financial Services
WSOHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/23/202211/09/2022Retail Building Supply
WUPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Financial Services
WSMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/24/202211/03/2022Retail (Special Lines)
ZBRAFlag      11/14/202211/21/2022Computers and Peripherals
FDNBroadening wedge, descending      09/23/202211/15/2022Internet
IGVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202211/04/2022Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Wednesday 11/23/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a chart of a bullish pattern. Last week, we saw bearish divergence which has disappeared. The thin blue line (CPI line) is now coincident instead of divergent.

What does this mean? The threat of a drop in the index appears to be over (the index didn't drop much in the past week, regardless of bearish divergence). The index is rising again.

The blue line is at or approaching the top reading of 100. So it's bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 52%.
The fewest was 23% on 11/23/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 451 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line shows improvement, but the blue line is flat, compared to a week ago. The red line might encounter resistance but I don't know if that's meaningful because we're looking at the measure of stocks in bear market territory. Does such a measure have support and resistance zones? The chart suggests that yes, it does, based on prior peaks and valleys.

You can say the same for the blue line, showing support and resistance.

Combining the two charts, the CPI one is bullish. This chart is also bullish but hints of overhead resistance. If you're an Elliott waver, the CPI chart shows a motive wave where you see 5 steps (3 higher and 2 lower, 5 total) and we're in step 4 or maybe turning higher to step 5, the last stage before an ABC correction.

I don't claim to be a waver, so it's hard for me to judge, but my guess is the index is going to rise in the coming week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 192 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AJRD, AES, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AIG, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BG, CPB, CE, CNP, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CLR, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EIX, ELV, EMR, EQT, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FE, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GE, GIS, GS, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HNI, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ISRG, IVC, KALU, K, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LH, LRCX, LEG, RAMP, LOW, M, MAN, MLM, MDC, MRK, MU, MS, NFG, NTGR, JWN, NOC, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PNW, PPL, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RGS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SCHW, SMG, SRE, SLGN, SWX, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TER, TXN, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, VLO, WRB, WLK, WSM, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IHE, IDU, FXI, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, MXI, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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