Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 07/28/2021
  Indus: 34,931 -127.59 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,360 -86.76 -0.6%  
  Utils: 916 -5.15 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 14,763 +102.00 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 4,401 -0.82 0.0%  
YTD
 +14.1%  
 +14.8%  
 +5.9%  
 +14.5%  
 +17.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/14/2021  
  Up arrow35,500 or 33,600 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,200 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 875 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,100 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,250 by 08/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/20/21
As of 07/28/2021
  Indus: 34,931 -127.59 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,360 -86.76 -0.6%  
  Utils: 916 -5.15 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 14,763 +102.00 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 4,401 -0.82 0.0%  
YTD
 +14.1%  
 +14.8%  
 +5.9%  
 +14.5%  
 +17.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/14/2021  
  Up arrow35,500 or 33,600 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,200 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 875 by 08/15/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,100 by 08/01/2021
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,250 by 08/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/20/21

 

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Thursday 7/29/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 102 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 439 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 267 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 172 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 222/389 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's go through this chart by the letters, starting at A.

This is what I call a multi-peak pattern. Price forms several peaks while price moves sideways. This one isn't ideal because it has one or two peaks above the others.

Bottoms BC combine to form an Adam & Eve double bottom. Adam (B) has a narrow bottom while Eve (C) is much wider. This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. It leads to a nice rise, to A.

D begins the flagpole of a flag pattern except the flag portion (circled) is too long. Flags should be less than 3 weeks long and this one looks to push the limits of that. The thinking with the flag is that price will resume climbing above the flag in an amount similar to the height of the flagpole, but it's measured from the bottom of the flag. Sound complicated? See the measure rule at the link for an explanation. Hint: it rarely works (46% of the time) as expected.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALL, DOX, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AXS, BLL, BIG, BIO, BA, BKNG, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CNO, CL, CLR, CR, CROX, CCRN, DHR, WIRE, EQT, EXPD, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FWRD, GME, IT, GS, GOOGL, EVRG, GFF, GES, HBI, HIG, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, JNJ, KFRC, LLY, L, MHO, MANH, MRTN, MA, MRK, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PRFT, PFE, PPG, PG, DGX, RMBS, RGS, SAIC, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, TOL, TRV, UPS, VFC, VMC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WU, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, DDM, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, PPA, PBE, ILF, MXI, XLI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,636.87    
 Weekly S2  13,925.70  288.83   
 Monthly S1  14,199.73  274.03   
 Weekly S1  14,344.14  144.41   
 Monthly Pivot  14,522.89  178.75   
 Daily S2  14,582.45  59.55   
 Weekly Pivot  14,595.10  12.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  14,645.63  50.53   
 Daily S1  14,672.51  26.88   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,704.17  31.66   
 Open  14,715.66  11.49   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,722.25  6.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  14,735.70  13.44   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,740.34  4.64   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,762.58  22.24   
 High  14,798.88  36.30   
 Daily R1  14,825.76  26.88   
 Daily R2  14,888.95  63.18   
 Weekly R1  15,013.54  124.59   
 Monthly R1  15,085.75  72.21   
 Weekly R2  15,264.50  178.75   
 Monthly R2  15,408.91  144.41   

Wednesday 7/28/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A thunder storm is approaching so I'll make this brief.

The indicator is still bullish but the thin blue indicator line near chart bottom is heading lower. That was pulled down today by the market's drop. Still, it shows underlying market weakness, I think. Perhaps it's better to describe the market condition as nervous.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

Both lines show a modest recovery from a week ago, continuing an uptrend from the lows mid month. I think the recovery will continue into August, but we have to pierce earnings season, which is happening now.

After that, we'll be heading into September and that's usually a weak time. In sum, it's a time for caution. I still expect the markets to drop in September and October, but might show strength before then, in August.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AEIS, APD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, ALL, AYX, DOX, AIG, AMN, APOG, AAPL, ADSK, AXS, BIO, BKH, BRKS, CACI, CAL, CLS, CNC, ED, CSOD, CREE, CROX, CCRN, DUK, EQT, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FIS, FISV, FWRD, GME, GE, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HE, HAYN, HD, HON, HOV, IDA, INCY, INOV, NSP, ITGR, IPI, JCOM, JBLU, KLIC, LHX, LH, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MDT, MU, MSFT, MLHR, CNR, NJR, NVDA, OTEX, OUT, PANW, POR, PINC, PEG, PHM, DGX, SAIC, SRE, SHW, SO, SWX, STMP, TDOC, TDC, TOL, UPS, VFC, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WDAY, ITA, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWT, DBA, PBE, PJP, IXN, MXI, XLP, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/27/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.2% or 82.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1343 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 729 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 614 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/404 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Boeing: BA.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, APD, AEO, AMGN, BZH, EPAY, BLDR, BG, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CLR, CR, DOV, DUK, EXP, EPAM, EXPD, FLEX, FCX, GS, EVRG, HON, INOV, IBP, IIIN, KLIC, LEG, MLM, MDCA, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NEU, JWN, OGE, OTEX, PKE, PTEN, PPL, PINC, SLGN, LUV, SUM, TDC, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WDAY, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FXI, IYH, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, DBA, PXJ, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLP, GLD, XRT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,733.98    
 Weekly S2  33,306.90  572.92   
 Monthly S1  33,939.14  632.25   
 Weekly S1  34,225.60  286.46   
 Monthly Pivot  34,517.24  291.64   
 Weekly Pivot  34,660.46  143.23   
 Daily S2  34,881.44  220.98   
 Low  34,950.19  68.75   
 Daily S1  35,012.88  62.68   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,026.66  13.79   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,050.28  23.62   
 Open  35,055.86  5.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,073.90  18.04   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  35,081.63  7.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  35,144.31  62.68   
 High  35,150.37  6.06   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,213.05  62.68   
 Daily R2  35,281.80  68.75   
 Weekly R1  35,579.17  297.37   
 Monthly R1  35,722.40  143.23   
 Weekly R2  36,014.04  291.63   
 Monthly R2  36,300.50  286.46   

 

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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