Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/03/2023
  Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%  
  Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%  
  Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%  
YTD
-0.4%  
 +9.6%  
-18.4%  
 +24.8%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023  
  Up arrow34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow850 or 725 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023
As of 10/03/2023
  Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%  
  Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%  
  Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%  
YTD
-0.4%  
 +9.6%  
-18.4%  
 +24.8%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023  
  Up arrow34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow850 or 725 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023

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Wednesday 10/4/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We're back to two bearish bars separated by neutral ones.

Notice at the bottom of the chart, the thin blue CPI line. It's either at 0 or close to it. That's bearish but it could also mean that the only direction to go is up.

In the past, the time spent at 0 is brief. That suggests this drop is near an end. Of course, that's just a guess.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 48% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 76% on 10/14/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 33% on 10/14/2022.

Both lines this week are worse off compared to a week ago. No surprise there. The lines are convergent, too, so they are saying, "Look out below!"

Based on underlying support, it looks as if the Dow could drop to 32,600 before rebounding. By that, I mean the 32,600 level is the next level of good support. It might not be enough to stop the tumble, though. I still believe the drop is about over. I'm bullish and have been adding to existing positions.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AMD, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AMWD, APH, APA, ANET, AIZ, AGO, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BSX, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CPB, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DSGR, DOV, BOOM, EMR, FARO, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, GE, GPN, GS, GES, HLIT, HIG, HE, HD, ITGR, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LEN, MCHX, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MS, NEWR, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OLN, ON, OMI, PANW, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PNW, PFG, PHM, PSTG, RL, RGA, RNG, RHI, RCKY, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SUM, TEVA, TJX, TDG, RIG, TG, UGI, UIS, UNM, VLO, WEX, WPM, WWD, IYM, IAI, IYE, FXI, IYH, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PBE, PJP, XLE, XHB, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/3/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -74.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1249 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 624 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 625 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 271/495 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Three falling peaks.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AFL, ALB, ALKS, AFG, APA, ACGL, ADP, AVY, AVA, BECN, BBY, BIIB, BFH, CACI, CPB, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CR, CRH, CSGS, CW, DHR, DVN, DOV, EXP, EME, EMR, EOG, FIS, FE, FORM, GE, GFS, GMS, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HELE, DHI, HWM, IDA, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, JNJ, KMT, KSS, LH, LANC, RAMP, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MLKN, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NEWR, NEE, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OR, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PNW, PXD, POR, PINC, DGX, RCKY, SAND, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SKYW, SWX, SPLK, SXI, TDG, RIG, UIS, UNH, VMI, VMC, WPM, WMB, WSC, IYE, IYH, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWJ, EWM, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, GLD, XLU, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,172.71    
 Monthly S1  32,803.03  630.32   
 Weekly S2  32,874.50  71.46   
 Daily S2  33,095.92  221.43   
 Weekly S1  33,153.92  58.00   
 Low  33,219.56  65.64   
 Daily S1  33,264.64  45.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,331.24  66.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,365.73  34.50   
 Daily Pivot  33,388.27  22.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,400.23  11.96   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,433.35  33.12   
 Open  33,455.50  22.15   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  33,511.91  56.41   
 Daily R1  33,556.99  45.08   
 Weekly Pivot  33,585.73  28.74   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  33,680.63  94.90   
 Weekly R1  33,865.15  184.53   
 Monthly Pivot  33,936.62  71.47   
 Weekly R2  34,296.96  360.34   
 Monthly R1  34,566.94  269.98   
 Monthly R2  35,700.53  1,133.59   

Monday 10/2/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

Forecast

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 43.04 points.
Tuesday: Down 388 points.
Wednesday: Down 68.61 points.
Thursday: Up 116.07 points.
Friday: Down 158.84 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 456.34 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 7.51 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 32.01 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.1% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     6.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     8.5% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     28.8% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.9% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     13.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,117  33,312  33,603  33,798  34,089 
Weekly  32,899  33,203  33,610  33,915  34,322 
Monthly  32,197  32,852  33,961  34,616  35,725 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,240  4,264  4,299  4,323  4,357 
Weekly  4,189  4,238  4,288  4,338  4,388 
Monthly  4,053  4,171  4,356  4,473  4,659 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,054  13,137  13,260  13,343  13,466 
Weekly  12,769  12,994  13,188  13,414  13,608 
Monthly  12,258  12,738  13,444  13,925  14,630 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AFL, APD, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AEO, AXP, AME, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ADP, AVY, AVA, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIG, BRC, BR, CACI, CAL, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CTAS, CNO, CL, CONN, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, CW, DVN, DSGR, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EBAY, EME, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EL, FAST, FIS, FISV, FORM, FWRD, GME, GD, GE, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HWM, HUBG, HUN, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, TILE, IPG, KMT, KLAC, LANC, LMT, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEWR, NEU, JWN, OXY, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PXD, PINC, PSTG, QTWO, RMBS, RLI, ROP, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SPLK, TFX, TER, TDG, TRV, UHAL, VFC, VMI, MDRX, V, VMC, WRB, WMT, WMB, WSC, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLK, VHT, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. E-Commerce3. Insurance (Life)
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Cement and Aggregates
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Internet
7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment7. E-Commerce
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Insurance (Diversified)
10. Insurance (Life)10. Building Materials
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Human Resources
51. Advertising51. Precision Instrument
52. Securities Brokerage52. Advertising
53. Metal Fabricating53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Securities Brokerage
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Metal Fabricating
56. Medical Supplies56. Food Processing
57. Food Processing57. Medical Supplies
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Short ETFs
59. Telecom. Equipment59. Telecom. Equipment
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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