As of 08/05/2022   Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%     Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%     Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%     Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%     S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%	YTD -9.7%   -11.4%    +3.4%   -19.1%   -13.0%	Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022     33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022   15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022   1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022   12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022   4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 7/15/22

As of 08/05/2022   Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%     Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%     Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%     Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%     S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%	YTD -9.7%   -11.4%    +3.4%   -19.1%   -13.0%
Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022     33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022   15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022   1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022   12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022   4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 7/15/22

Monday 8/8/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

Peaks CD and EF are twin peak chart patterns called double tops.

At AB, we see a double bottom. All of these patterns confirm as valid when price closes either above the top or below the bottom of the patterns. The move after all of them was superb.

We measure performance by the height of the pattern and you can see that the move after the patterns far exceeded their height.

The two diamond-shaped patterns are, well, diamond tops. After the top, expect the index to drop. In this case, the left diamond didn't see price drop far (just to B).

Will the second diamond behave the same? Neither diamond is well-shaped and you might be hard pressed to defend the right diamond pattern as a diamond. Having said that, the move up from B to the diamond has been a strong push. I'd expect a pause before a resumption of the uptrend. We're seeing that pause now in the shape of the diamond. After it breaks out (the breakout direction can be either up or down), then we'll know if another strong up-move will appear.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AMD, AES, AA, AYX, AIG, ARW, ADP, AVA, BMI, BALL, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BFH, CIEN, CLNE, CONN, CCK, CTS, DECK, DSGR, DOV, EMR, EOG, FICO, FISV, FIVN, GME, GNW, GS, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ITW, JKHY, JNJ, KFRC, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LNC, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MLI, MUR, NFG, NWL, NOC, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PFE, KWR, DGX, RGA, RLI, ROST, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SXI, SRDX, TEVA, TKR, VFC, VMC, WLK, WOLF, ITA, IHE, DDM, IAT, IYF, IHI, EWS, IBB, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/5/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AMD, APD, DOX, AMED, ACGL, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CALM, CHS, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DVN, DOV, DTE, DUK, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FISV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GS, HAYN, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, ITGR, IVC, JNJ, KBAL, LNC, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PRU, PEG, RLI, SLB, SO, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMC, WERN, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, IEV, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 8/4/22. Cryptocurrency Update: Bitcoin BTC-USD

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms A and B highlight what I call an ugly double bottom. That's when the second bottom (B) is significantly above the first bottom (A). It confirms as a valid bottom reversal at C. That's when the coin closes above the top of the double bottom. The coin has struggle to move higher since C but it remains above the red confirmation line.

I drew two green lines showing the trend of the coin. Notice that it curves upward. That slope suggests strength, that the value of the coin will continue higher.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, AIZ, BMI, BALL, BAX, BFH, BG, CHS, CSCO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DSGR, D, DOV, DUK, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EVH, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GL, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LDOS, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OXY, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PPL, PRU, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SEE, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, V, WAT, WMB, XEL, IEZ, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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