Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/24/2023
  Indus: 32,238 +132.28 +0.4%  
  Trans: 13,707 +18.91 +0.1%  
  Utils: 911 +28.13 +3.2%  
  Nasdaq: 11,824 +36.56 +0.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,971 +22.27 +0.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023  
  Down arrow30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow940 or 860 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023
As of 03/24/2023
  Indus: 32,238 +132.28 +0.4%  
  Trans: 13,707 +18.91 +0.1%  
  Utils: 911 +28.13 +3.2%  
  Nasdaq: 11,824 +36.56 +0.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,971 +22.27 +0.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023  
  Down arrow30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow940 or 860 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023

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Monday 3/27/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

At A is a chart pattern called a broadening top. That's where the price swings widen over time, forming what looks like a megaphone.

B shows a similar pattern, called a broadening bottom. It's the same as the top version except for the direction price enters the pattern.

Broadening bottoms (B) breakout upward 60% of the time, according to my research of the chart pattern. That's not much above random, but that's what I found when studying over 1,000 of them.


A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 382.6 points.
Tuesday: Up 316.02 points.
Wednesday: Down 530.49 points.
Thursday: Up 75.14 points.
Friday: Up 132.28 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 375.55 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 193.45 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 54.35 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     2.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
     3.6% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     15.2% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     5.3% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     4.7% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.


Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,648  31,943  32,100  32,395  32,552 
Weekly  31,311  31,775  32,268  32,731  33,225 
Monthly  30,186  31,212  32,456  33,482  34,726 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,887  3,929  3,951  3,993  4,015 
Weekly  3,843  3,907  3,973  4,037  4,104 
Monthly  3,683  3,827  3,953  4,097  4,222 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,618  11,721  11,774  11,877  11,929 
Weekly  11,333  11,578  11,796  12,042  12,260 
Monthly  10,576  11,200  11,607  12,231  12,638 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price


Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ABC, APA, ASH, AZTA, BALL, BECN, BKH, BSX, CPB, CLF, CLX, CAG, COST, COTY, CR, CW, FTV, HE, HL, HSIC, HOLX, DHI, IDA, IEX, ILMN, IIIN, IPI, ISRG, JAZZ, LHX, LNC, LPLA, LXU, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, ^IXIC, NEWR, NOVT, OMCL, OXM, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PKI, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, ^GSPC, SLB, NOW, SKX, SMAR, SWN, SCS, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TMO, RIG, WAT, WOLF, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, QQQ, IYH, IYZ, IHI, EWO, EWW, EWT, QLD, DBA, PHO, SSO, XLV, SPY, USO, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Shoe3. Metals and Mining (Div.)
4. Metals and Mining (Div.)4. Shoe
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Internet
7. Metal Fabricating7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Apparel
9. Diversified Co.9. Retail Building Supply
10. Advertising10. Metal Fabricating
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Medical Services51. Insurance (Diversified)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Chemical (Diversified)
53. Healthcare Information53. Medical Services
54. Natural Gas (Distributor)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Insurance (Life)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Electric Utility (East)57. Healthcare Information
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Insurance (Life)
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Producing)
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 3/24/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AFL, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AEL, ABC, BECN, BERY, BKH, BAH, BCO, CNC, CF, CVX, CI, CLF, CLX, CNA, CAG, GLW, COTY, CRH, DVN, FANG, DSGR, BOOM, ELV, EOG, EVRG, EZPW, FDS, FDX, FCX, GMS, GFF, HL, HSII, HON, IPI, NVTA, KALU, KBH, LH, LAMR, LDOS, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MANH, MRO, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NFLX, OXY, OMCL, OXM, PATK, PEN, PXD, PPL, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REGN, ROL, ROST, R, SLB, SAIC, NOW, STR, SMAR, SCS, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TJX, TDG, TZOO, TWLO, SLCA, UNH, MDRX, WERN, WSM, WDAY, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FDN, FXI, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EZA, THD, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, XLY, XLE, XLF, XRT, XAR, USO, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski



 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
Start End Industry
DOXScallop, descending      02/15/202303/21/2023IT Services
BAHScallop, descending      03/06/202303/21/2023IT Services
CXPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Cement and Aggregates
CHKPTriple bottom      02/17/202303/13/2023E-Commerce
CHSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/03/202303/16/2023Apparel
GFSTriple bottom      02/23/202303/13/2023Semiconductor
GOOGLDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/24/202303/13/2023Internet
IIINTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/202303/06/2023Building Materials
PODDTriple bottom      02/22/202303/10/2023Medical Supplies
LMTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/13/202303/08/2023Aerospace/Defense
MASDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/09/2023Building Materials
NEUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/24/202303/15/2023Chemical (Specialty)
PENPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Medical Supplies
PHMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/21/202303/13/2023Homebuilding
REGNUgly double bottom      01/09/202302/17/2023Biotechnology
SMARPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023E-Commerce
SNPSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/21/202303/13/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TFXPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Diversified Co.
VRTXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/27/202303/08/2023Biotechnology
SOXXTriple bottom      02/22/202303/13/2023Semiconductor
MGKDiamond bottom      02/27/202303/15/2023None



Thursday 3/23/23. Cryptocurrency Ethereum: Broadening Top

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.6% or -190.15 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 96 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 49 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 47 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 253/448 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of cryptocurrency Ethereum on the daily scale.

This is almost a picture perfect image of a broadening top chart pattern. It appears as price trends upward into the start of the pattern.

From there, it makes higher swings upward and lower swings downward, looking like a megaphone, B.

At A, the currency has paused. This could be a partial decline. That's when price attempts to reach the bottom line, doesn't make it, and breaks out upward immediately. The signal is correct 72% of the time.

Is that what will happen this time (an upward breakout)? Answer: I don't know. The probabilities were for stocks, not cryptocurrencies.

$ $ $

My neighbor backed into his neighbors mailbox, looked at it, and walked back to his pickup, parked it, and started washing his car as if nothing had happened.

He didn't leave a note, so I sent him an email to do the right thing and tell of the accident. Will it work?

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AA, AXP, ABC, AON, ACGL, AWI, ATO, ADP, AVA, AXS, BBBY, BAH, BG, CACI, CNC, CDAY, CF, CVX, CI, CLF, CLX, CNA, CAG, CONN, GLW, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, DHR, DVN, FANG, ^DJI, EIX, ELV, EOG, EFX, EVRG, EXPI, FDS, FDX, FE, FORM, FCX, GME, GD, GE, GMS, GFF, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HON, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, IBKR, IPG, NVTA, K, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, MANH, MRO, MA, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MGEE, MOS, MUR, NBR, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OMCL, ON, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PAYX, PEN, PNW, PXD, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, ROL, ROST, R, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, NOW, STR, SMAR, LUV, SR, SPSC, SXI, SCS, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TMO, TJX, TDG, TZOO, TWLO, UNH, VECO, VRTX, V, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XRT, XAR, XLK, XLU, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,486.19    
 Weekly S2  10,684.98  198.79   
 Monthly S1  11,078.08  393.10   
 Weekly S1  11,177.47  99.39   
 Daily S2  11,436.46  258.99   
 Weekly Pivot  11,475.29  38.83   
 Daily S1  11,553.21  77.92   
 Monthly Pivot  11,574.68  21.47   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  11,666.85  92.17   
 Close  11,669.96  3.11   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,783.60  113.64   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,799.46  15.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,840.42  40.96   
 Open  11,857.50  17.08   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,881.38  23.88   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  11,900.35  18.97   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  11,967.78  67.43   
 High  12,013.99  46.21   
 Daily R2  12,130.74  116.75   
 Monthly R1  12,166.57  35.83   
 Weekly R2  12,265.60  99.03   
 Monthly R2  12,663.17  397.57   


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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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