Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/23/2024
  Indus: 39,132 +62.42 +0.2%  
  Trans: 15,921 +98.65 +0.6%  
  Utils: 849 +3.14 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,997 -44.80 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 5,089 +1.77 +0.0%  
YTD
 +3.8%  
 +0.1%  
-3.7%  
 +6.6%  
 +6.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/23/2024
  Indus: 39,132 +62.42 +0.2%  
  Trans: 15,921 +98.65 +0.6%  
  Utils: 849 +3.14 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,997 -44.80 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 5,089 +1.77 +0.0%  
YTD
 +3.8%  
 +0.1%  
-3.7%  
 +6.6%  
 +6.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

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Monday 2/26/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The Dow has been on a tear since point A in late October (or early November). The mid point of the move from A to B, using a ruler, is the red line.

When, not if, the industrials retrace, it's probably going to take the index down far, perhaps to that red line, C (approximately).

I can already see the chart pattern indicator (not shown) getting nervous about the climb, but those fears have lessened in the last few days.

I still think trouble is coming. According to my 2024 Dow forecast, it could be until May before we see a significant decline.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride. And be sure to carry plenty of bottled oxygen for the climb. Smiley

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 64.19 points.
Wednesday: Up 48.44 points.
Thursday: Up 456.87 points.
Friday: Up 62.42 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 503.54 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 221.17 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 83.23 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.
     5.4% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.9% down from the high of 16,134.22 on 02/23/2024.
     10.5% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 5,111.06 on 02/23/2024.
     8.7% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,981  39,057  39,169  39,244  39,357 
Weekly  37,974  38,553  38,917  39,496  39,861 
Monthly  36,791  37,961  38,622  39,792  40,452 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,064  5,076  5,094  5,106  5,123 
Weekly  4,884  4,986  5,049  5,151  5,214 
Monthly  4,670  4,879  4,995  5,205  5,321 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,849  15,923  16,029  16,103  16,208 
Weekly  15,178  15,588  15,861  16,270  16,543 
Monthly  14,692  15,345  15,739  16,392  16,786 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AEIS, APD, ALRM, AEP, AEL, AMGN, AAPL, AWI, AGO, BALL, BAX, BECN, BERY, BA, BRC, BCO, BMY, CBT, CDNS, CF, CNA, CNO, CL, CMTL, COST, COTY, CSGS, CTS, DHR, DFS, DSGR, BOOM, EIX, EME, WIRE, EPAM, EVRG, FICO, FARO, FIS, FISV, FTV, FRD, GGG, THG, HLIT, HE, HTLD, HNI, HD, HUM, JBHT, IDXX, IPG, INTU, KBH, KMB, LRCX, LANC, MAN, MCHX, NTGR, NWL, NOC, NWPX, NOVT, OMC, OMI, PAYX, PEN, PINC, PSTG, RGS, RLI, ROP, ROST, RES, CRM, SHOP, STR, SPSC, SXI, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TDC, TER, TXN, TMO, TSCO, TG, UHAL, VC, WAT, WSO, WU, WOLF, IDU, IYH, MXI, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWD, PBE, XLF, XHB, XRT, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Homebuilding5. E-Commerce
6. Semiconductor6. Semiconductor
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. E-Commerce8. Homebuilding
9. Building Materials9. IT Services
10. IT Services10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Human Resources50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Food Processing54. Air Transport
55. Air Transport55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Natural Gas (Diversified)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Food Processing
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/23/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, APD, AKAM, ALK, AYX, AEO, AEL, AME, APH, ADSK, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BZH, BA, BKNG, CDNS, COR, CENX, CF, CRL, CTAS, CNA, CTSH, CL, CSGP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CTS, D, DTE, EXP, EIX, EME, WIRE, EPAM, EVRG, EXPD, FDS, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FISV, FIVN, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HSIC, HOLX, HD, HON, IBP, IPG, ISRG, JBLU, KALU, LZB, LAMR, LEG, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, META, MCO, MLI, NTGR, NWL, NEU, JWN, NWPX, NOVT, OMC, OTEX, PATK, PAYX, PRFT, PFG, PSTG, RMBS, RNG, ROK, ROG, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAIA, SAND, NOW, SHOP, SPLK, SPSC, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TXT, TG, TREX, UHAL, UPS, VMI, VECO, VMC, WRB, WSO, WERN, WPM, ZBRA, IYC, IYE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IXC, ILF, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWY, EWD, THD, QLD, PHO, ROBO, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWBroadening top      12/15/202302/15/2024IT Services
ALGTTriangle, ascending      01/08/202402/22/2024Air Transport
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/22/202402/07/2024IT Services
AMEDTriangle, symmetrical      02/06/202402/21/2024Medical Services
AMNDead-cat bounce      02/16/202402/16/2024Human Resources
ARHead-and-shoulders top      12/27/202301/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVAPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (West)
CNAPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CAGTriple top      01/04/202402/02/2024Food Processing
CONNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/08/202402/22/2024Retail (Special Lines)
DFSPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Financial Services
DPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (East)
DTEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202402/08/2024Electric Utility (Central)
BOOMPipe bottom      01/08/202401/16/2024Metal Fabricating
EBAYTriple bottom      01/16/202402/13/2024Internet
EIXPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (West)
WIREPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
FARODouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/30/202402/12/2024Precision Instrument
FIVNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/22/202402/12/2024Computer Software and Svcs
GLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/09/202402/01/2024Insurance (Life)
HUNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/17/202402/13/2024Chemical (Specialty)
ITWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/01/202402/13/2024Metal Fabricating
ITGRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/22/202402/13/2024Electronics
JAZZTriple bottom      02/02/202402/14/2024Biotechnology
KDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/22/202402/09/2024Food Processing
MTDRTriple bottom      12/12/202302/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
MYGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Biotechnology
NWPXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/31/202402/12/2024Building Materials
OXYDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/18/202402/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
OXMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/16/202402/05/2024Apparel
PANWDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Computer Software and Svcs
PPLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202402/08/2024Electric Utility (East)
PSTGPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Computers and Peripherals
RNGHead-and-shoulders top      12/28/202302/12/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ROLTriangle, ascending      01/22/202402/14/2024Industrial Services
RDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/26/202302/12/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SMTCTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/202402/21/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NOWPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024IT Services
SHOPPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024E-Commerce
SWXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/08/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
SWNTriple bottom      01/23/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
TDOCDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Healthcare Information
UISDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/22/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.3% or -49.91 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 540 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 293 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 247 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 271/481 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/160 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Peaks AB show a pattern called a double top (two similar peaks) or even a triple top (three similar peaks). The pattern confirms as valid when the index closes below the green line at C. I drew the line connecting the lowest valley between peaks A and B.

Recently, the index formed a down-sloping channel, which I show here in red. The breakout from the channel was upward, suggesting a higher close will come tomorrow (but the start could be bumpy with a retrace of the strong move up in the last hour of today's session).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, APD, ALKS, AR, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMI, BA, BFH, BRKR, CDNS, CDAY, CNA, CNX, CL, CCRN, CTS, DHR, XRAY, ^DJI, D, BOOM, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, EQT, EG, EVRG, EXC, FICO, FARO, FIS, FTNT, GME, GE, GNW, GES, HBI, HAYN, HOLX, DHI, HUBG, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IPG, JAZZ, KMT, KEYS, LZB, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, META, MCO, MLI, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, OMC, OTEX, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PFG, PSTG, RRC, RNG, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SWN, SPLK, SPSC, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TDY, TG, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, WAT, WSO, WERN, WPM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IHE, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IEV, IGV, IXC, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWP, EWD, EWL, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, XLE, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,081.88    
 Monthly S1  14,831.38  749.49   
 Weekly S2  15,208.83  377.45   
 Weekly S1  15,394.85  186.02   
 Daily S2  15,406.70  11.85   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  15,451.65  44.95   
 Monthly Pivot  15,455.72  4.07   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,493.79  38.06   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,502.09  8.30   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,517.67  15.58   
 Open  15,532.12  14.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,533.24  1.12   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  15,538.73  5.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,580.87  42.14   
 High  15,583.68  2.81   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  15,625.82  42.14   
 Daily R2  15,670.76  44.95   
 Weekly Pivot  15,737.46  66.70   
 Weekly R1  15,923.48  186.02   
 Monthly R1  16,205.22  281.74   
 Weekly R2  16,266.09  60.87   
 Monthly R2  16,829.56  563.47   

 

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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