As of 10/15/2021   Indus: 35,295 +382.20 +1.1%     Trans: 15,191 +247.29 +1.7%     Utils: 899 -1.55 -0.2%     Nasdaq: 14,897 +73.91 +0.5%     S&P 500: 4,471 +33.11 +0.7%	YTD  +15.3%    +21.5%    +3.9%    +15.6%    +19.0%	Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021     35,600 or 33,500 by 11/01/2021   15,450 or 14,000 by 11/01/2021   925 or 860 by 11/01/2021   15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021   4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 10/8/21

As of 10/15/2021   Indus: 35,295 +382.20 +1.1%     Trans: 15,191 +247.29 +1.7%     Utils: 899 -1.55 -0.2%     Nasdaq: 14,897 +73.91 +0.5%     S&P 500: 4,471 +33.11 +0.7%	YTD  +15.3%    +21.5%    +3.9%    +15.6%    +19.0%
Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021     35,600 or 33,500 by 11/01/2021   15,450 or 14,000 by 11/01/2021   925 or 860 by 11/01/2021   15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021   4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 10/8/21

Monday 10/18/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Let's take the chart by colors. The two converging green lines form a symmetrical triangle. The chart pattern broke out upward and then threw back to F before trying to rise again to a new high (which it failed to achieve).

To the right of that pattern is DEF. That's a double top. Peaks DE are close to each other in price and the pattern confirms as valid when the index drops below the blue line (F) on the way to A.

Pattern ABC is similar except it's a double bottom. It confirms when the index closes above the red line C.

The index is now powering higher. That's a continuation gap by the way (separating the last two price bars on the chart. It might be an exhaustion gap, and another day will confirm that). I'm looking for the upward move to continue.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AA, AEL, AFG, APH, AON, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CAL, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CRH, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, FB, FAST, FOE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, ITW, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NCR, NFLX, NJR, OGE, ORI, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKG, PETS, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POR, KWR, RMBS, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SEIC, LUV, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TDC, TER, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, VMI, WRB, WSO, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLI, SPY, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AES, AFL, APD, AA, ADS, DOX, AXP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BG, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CSOD, CR, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EMN, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FICO, FE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GPN, GOOGL, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HUBG, JBHT, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IVC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MSFT, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PRFT, PPG, PG, RGS, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TG, VEEV, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYM, IYK, ITB, IHI, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 571 stocks searched, or 6.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The composite formed a small triple bottom at 1, 2, 3. The pattern confirmed when the composite closed above red line A. That was a buy signal, but it hasn't amounted to much...so far anyway.

If you take the height of the chart pattern (from A to 3, the tallest part of the pattern) and add it to A, you can get a target. In stocks, price will reach the target 74% of the time according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition #ad.

If I had to guess, I'd say the composite will move higher and that assessment agrees with the above prediction, too.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AA, AMWD, AMN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, BIG, BMRN, BRKS, BG, CBT, CNC, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CSOD, CCK, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMR, WIRE, EZPW, FLS, FCX, HSII, ITW, INFN, NSP, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, KMT, LAWS, RAMP, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, NXGN, OLN, PKG, PRFT, PFE, KWR, QCOM, RL, RJF, RNG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SWN, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IYM, FXL, EWO, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWS, EWY, PXJ, XLP, GLD, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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