Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 05/16/2022
  Indus: 32,223 +26.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,335 -121.64 -0.8%  
  Utils: 994 +1.06 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,663 -142.21 -1.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,008 -15.88 -0.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/13/22
As of 05/16/2022
  Indus: 32,223 +26.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,335 -121.64 -0.8%  
  Utils: 994 +1.06 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,663 -142.21 -1.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,008 -15.88 -0.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/13/22


Recent Headlines


Older Headlines

Tuesday 5/17/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 26.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1381 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 713 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 668 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 246/437 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/96 or 49.0% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring PPG Industries (PPG) stock.

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Here's a symbol list of 64 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALL, DOX, AEE, APA, ARCB, ATO, BERY, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CVX, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CMTL, CAG, DSGR, WIRE, FLEX, FRD, GPS, GPRO, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HP, HNI, IDA, IVC, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LANC, M, NFG, NXGN, OXY, OMI, PANW, PFE, PCG, PRU, KWR, RMBS, REV, RLI, SSYS, SUM, TKR, TG, VMC, IHE, DBA, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,717.29    
 Monthly S1  30,470.35  1,753.07   
 Weekly S2  30,543.99  73.63   
 Weekly S1  31,383.70  839.72   
 Daily S2  31,636.03  252.33   
 Low  31,928.18  292.15   
 Daily S1  31,929.73  1.55   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  32,067.94  138.21   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,151.97  84.03   
 Open  32,152.15  0.18   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,221.10  68.95   
 Daily Pivot  32,221.87  0.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,223.42  1.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,290.23  66.81   
 High  32,514.02  223.79   
 Daily R1  32,515.57  1.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  32,807.71  292.15   
 Weekly R1  32,907.65  99.94   
 Monthly Pivot  32,981.29  73.63   
 Weekly R2  33,591.89  610.60   
 Monthly R1  34,734.35  1,142.46   
 Monthly R2  37,245.29  2,510.93   

Monday 5/16/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

LHR is a head-and-shoulders bottom with L being the left shoulder, H is the head, and R is the right shoulder. The chart pattern suggests a rise that was achieved, or close to being achieved, at D.

More recently, pattern AB is a double top It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the red line, near C.

What does all of this mean going forward? The quick drop and recovery after C is what's called a pullback. After a pullback, there's a 54% chance that the index will resume the downtrend (according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad))

Because the predicted trend is about random, it doesn't help us, does it? However, the index is resting on support (created by the recent valleys near the same price) so my guess is the index will continue moving higher. The index dropped enough days in a row that a decent rebound is overdue.


A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 653.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 84.96 points.
Wednesday: Down 326.63 points.
Thursday: Down 103.81 points.
Friday: Up 466.36 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 702.71 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 339.66 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 99.45 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     12.9% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     3.1% up from the low of 31,228.22 on 05/12/2022.
     25.5% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     6.3% up from the low of 11,108.76 on 05/12/2022.
S&P 500
     16.5% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     4.3% up from the low of 3,858.87 on 05/12/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).


Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,699  31,948  32,112  32,361  32,525 
Weekly  30,535  31,366  32,059  32,890  33,583 
Monthly  28,708  30,453  32,972  34,717  37,236 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,934  3,979  4,009  4,054  4,084 
Weekly  3,766  3,895  3,988  4,117  4,210 
Monthly  3,478  3,751  4,132  4,405  4,786 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,378  11,591  11,724  11,938  12,070 
Weekly  10,753  11,279  11,635  12,161  12,517 
Monthly  9,606  10,706  12,208  13,308  14,810 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price


Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AYX, AMED, AMN, APA, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BALL, BZH, BERY, BIIB, BMY, BBW, CBT, CAL, CLS, CF, CVX, CHS, CLNE, COP, COTY, CROX, DVN, EXP, EIX, EOG, EPAM, RE, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FRD, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HSII, HP, HSIC, JBHT, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LRCX, LEG, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MCO, NFG, OXY, ORI, OLN, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PCG, PGR, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RNG, RCKY, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SEE, NOW, SKX, SUM, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TOL, TREX, VEEV, VMC, WAT, WSO, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYE, ITB, IYH, IEO, IHI, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWS, THD, IBB, PBE, PHO, IXC, XLE, GLD, XLV, XHB, XAR, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Food Processing6. Food Processing
7. Electric Utility (West)7. Electric Utility (West)
8. Electric Utility (Central)8. Electric Utility (Central)
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Aerospace/Defense
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Diversified Co.50. Semiconductor
51. Semiconductor51. Homebuilding
52. Apparel52. Medical Supplies
53. Homebuilding53. Apparel
54. Internet54. Internet
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Computers and Peripherals56. Computers and Peripherals
57. E-Commerce57. E-Commerce
58. Healthcare Information58. Healthcare Information
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 5/13/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AEE, AEL, AXP, ABC, AMN, APH, APA, AMAT, AWI, AGO, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BERY, BA, EPAY, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CAL, CE, CNC, CNP, CENX, CIEN, CLF, CRH, CMI, DDS, DFS, DRQ, EIX, EOG, EXC, EXPD, FDX, FLEX, FTNT, FCX, GME, GNW, GS, GPRO, GFF, GES, HIG, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, IDXX, KALU, KFRC, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LH, LRCX, LEG, LNC, LXU, MHO, MAS, MRK, FB, MU, MCO, MS, NFG, CNR, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PAYX, PCG, PRU, PEG, KWR, RMBS, REV, SEE, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, SUM, TPR, TKR, TSCO, RIG, TREX, SLCA, VMC, WWW, IHE, FXI, IYH, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski



 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
Start End Industry
ACIWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/21/202205/05/2022IT Services
APDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/29/202205/05/2022Chemical (Diversified)
AELDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/29/202204/21/2022Insurance (Life)
AXPTriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Financial Services
ASHThree Falling Peaks      04/20/202205/04/2022Chemical (Basic)
BERYHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Packaging and Container
BMRNPipe top      04/04/202204/11/2022Biotechnology
BOOTThree Falling Peaks      03/18/202205/04/2022Shoe
BRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/202205/04/2022Chemical (Diversified)
BBWHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CACIHead-and-shoulders top      03/07/202204/07/2022IT Services
CLNEDead-cat bounce      05/06/202205/06/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
DFSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/20/202205/04/2022Financial Services
^DJTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/21/202205/04/2022None
FDSHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202204/21/2022Information Services
FISVTriple top      04/05/202204/28/2022IT Services
GPROHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Electronics
GFFPennant      05/04/202205/12/2022Building Materials
GESHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202205/04/2022Apparel
HONBroadening top      03/23/202204/29/2022Aerospace/Defense
ITGRTriple top      12/29/202104/20/2022Electronics
KUgly double bottom      03/14/202205/03/2022Food Processing
LHXPipe top      02/28/202203/07/2022Aerospace/Defense
LRCXHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MTSITriple top      04/20/202205/04/2022Semiconductor
NFGHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
NKETriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Shoe
NOCTriangle, symmetrical      03/07/202205/12/2022Aerospace/Defense
NWPXUgly double bottom      04/07/202205/06/2022Building Materials
PANWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/31/202204/20/2022Computer Software and Svcs
PATKUgly double bottom      04/07/202204/27/2022Retail Building Supply
PPGTriple top      03/29/202205/04/2022Chemical (Diversified)
KWRHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Chemical (Specialty)
RMBSHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGSDead-cat bounce      05/10/202205/10/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
REVDead-cat bounce      05/10/202205/10/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
SLGNTriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Packaging and Container
SUMHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Cement and Aggregates
TXTTriple top      04/21/202205/04/2022Diversified Co.
TJXHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202205/04/2022Retail Store
SLCAHead-and-shoulders top      04/05/202205/05/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VMCHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Cement and Aggregates




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Chart Patterns: After the Buy

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