Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/15/2021
  Indus: 35,295 +382.20 +1.1%  
  Trans: 15,191 +247.29 +1.7%  
  Utils: 899 -1.55 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 14,897 +73.91 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,471 +33.11 +0.7%  
YTD
 +15.3%  
 +21.5%  
 +3.9%  
 +15.6%  
 +19.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,500 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow15,450 or 14,000 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow925 or 860 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 10/8/21
As of 10/15/2021
  Indus: 35,295 +382.20 +1.1%  
  Trans: 15,191 +247.29 +1.7%  
  Utils: 899 -1.55 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 14,897 +73.91 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,471 +33.11 +0.7%  
YTD
 +15.3%  
 +21.5%  
 +3.9%  
 +15.6%  
 +19.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,500 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow15,450 or 14,000 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow925 or 860 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021
  Up arrow4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 10/8/21

 

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Monday 10/18/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Let's take the chart by colors. The two converging green lines form a symmetrical triangle. The chart pattern broke out upward and then threw back to F before trying to rise again to a new high (which it failed to achieve).

To the right of that pattern is DEF. That's a double top. Peaks DE are close to each other in price and the pattern confirms as valid when the index drops below the blue line (F) on the way to A.

Pattern ABC is similar except it's a double bottom. It confirms when the index closes above the red line C.

The index is now powering higher. That's a continuation gap by the way (separating the last two price bars on the chart. It might be an exhaustion gap, and another day will confirm that). I'm looking for the upward move to continue.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 250.19 points.
Tuesday: Down 117.72 points.
Wednesday: Down 0.53 points.
Thursday: Up 534.75 points.
Friday: Up 382.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 548.51 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 317.5 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 80.03 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     18.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     20.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     22.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,916  35,105  35,213  35,403  35,510 
Weekly  33,704  34,500  34,910  35,705  36,116 
Monthly  33,035  34,165  34,743  35,873  36,451 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,437  4,454  4,465  4,482  4,493 
Weekly  4,280  4,376  4,426  4,521  4,572 
Monthly  4,213  4,342  4,418  4,547  4,622 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,826  14,862  14,883  14,919  14,940 
Weekly  14,285  14,591  14,748  15,054  15,211 
Monthly  13,921  14,409  14,812  15,301  15,704 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AA, AEL, AFG, APH, AON, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CAL, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CRH, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, FB, FAST, FOE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, ITW, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NCR, NFLX, NJR, OGE, ORI, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKG, PETS, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POR, KWR, RMBS, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SEIC, LUV, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TDC, TER, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, VMI, WRB, WSO, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLI, SPY, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Human Resources
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Human Resources4. Precision Instrument
5. Securities Brokerage5. Insurance (Diversified)
6. Insurance (Diversified)6. Securities Brokerage
7. Precision Instrument7. Information Services
8. Information Services8. Natural Gas (Diversified)
9. Retail Store9. Retail Store
10. Shoe10. Drug
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Building Materials50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Household Products
52. Household Products52. Short ETFs
53. Semiconductor Cap Equip.53. Medical Services
54. Short ETFs54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
57. Medical Services57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Homebuilding58. Apparel
59. Apparel59. Homebuilding
60. Air Transport60. Air Transport

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AES, AFL, APD, AA, ADS, DOX, AXP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BG, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CSOD, CR, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EMN, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FICO, FE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GPN, GOOGL, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HUBG, JBHT, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IVC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MSFT, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PRFT, PPG, PG, RGS, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TG, VEEV, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYM, IYK, ITB, IHI, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 571 stocks searched, or 6.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEISTriangle, symmetrical      08/17/202110/14/2021Semiconductor
ALBTriangle, descending      09/20/202110/12/2021Chemical (Diversified)
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      09/21/202110/13/2021Building Materials
APHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/30/202110/13/2021Electronics
ARCBCup with handle      05/10/202110/13/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AGORounding bottom      08/25/202110/11/2021Insurance (Life)
AVNTTriangle, ascending      09/09/202110/13/2021Chemical (Specialty)
CNABroadening bottom      08/12/202110/11/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COTYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/08/202110/14/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
EQTPipe top      09/27/202110/04/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
ELHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/12/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
RERounding bottom      08/17/202110/14/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/04/202110/11/2021Electric Utility (East)
FWRDTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/202110/14/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FCXHorn bottom      09/20/202110/04/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
FRDHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/30/202110/11/2021Building Materials
HLBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/17/202110/14/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
NSPScallop, ascending      09/03/202110/08/2021Human Resources
JAZZBroadening bottom      08/31/202110/08/2021Biotechnology
KALUBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/27/202110/14/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
LZBDiamond bottom      09/17/202110/14/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      09/14/202110/14/2021Metal Fabricating
MASHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/13/2021Building Materials
NOVBroadening bottom      08/24/202110/11/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OMCRectangle bottom      07/21/202110/14/2021Advertising
RNGBroadening bottom      09/15/202110/13/2021Computer Software and Svcs
ROKHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/21/202110/12/2021Diversified Co.
NOWTriple bottom      09/29/202110/11/2021IT Services
TDOCPipe bottom      09/27/202110/04/2021Healthcare Information
TGTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202110/14/2021Chemical (Specialty)
VMCTriangle, symmetrical      09/20/202110/14/2021Cement and Aggregates
WEXUgly double bottom      09/21/202110/12/2021Information Services
WMBRounding bottom      06/07/202110/08/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
XELDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/28/202110/11/2021Electric Utility (West)
MGKHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/13/2021None

 

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Thursday 10/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 105.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 440 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 268 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 172 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/397 or 57.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The composite formed a small triple bottom at 1, 2, 3. The pattern confirmed when the composite closed above red line A. That was a buy signal, but it hasn't amounted to much...so far anyway.

If you take the height of the chart pattern (from A to 3, the tallest part of the pattern) and add it to A, you can get a target. In stocks, price will reach the target 74% of the time according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition #ad.

If I had to guess, I'd say the composite will move higher and that assessment agrees with the above prediction, too.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AA, AMWD, AMN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, BIG, BMRN, BRKS, BG, CBT, CNC, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CSOD, CCK, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMR, WIRE, EZPW, FLS, FCX, HSII, ITW, INFN, NSP, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, KMT, LAWS, RAMP, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, NXGN, OLN, PKG, PRFT, PFE, KWR, QCOM, RL, RJF, RNG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SWN, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IYM, FXL, EWO, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWS, EWY, PXJ, XLP, GLD, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,686.93    
 Monthly S1  14,129.29  442.35   
 Daily S2  14,426.88  297.59   
 Weekly S2  14,446.31  19.43   
 Low  14,471.89  25.58   
 Daily S1  14,499.26  27.37   
 Weekly S1  14,508.97  9.71   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,516.73  7.76   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,530.58  13.85   
 Open  14,537.17  6.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  14,544.27  7.10   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,544.44  0.17   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,571.64  27.20   
 High  14,589.28  17.64   
 Daily R1  14,616.65  27.37   
 Weekly Pivot  14,632.35  15.70   
 Daily R2  14,661.66  29.31   
 Weekly R1  14,695.01  33.35   
 Monthly Pivot  14,766.36  71.35   
 Weekly R2  14,818.39  52.02   
 Monthly R1  15,208.72  390.33   
 Monthly R2  15,845.79  637.08   

 

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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