As of 11/25/2022   Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%     Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%     Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%     Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%     S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%	YTD -5.5%   -12.4%   -0.9%   -28.2%   -15.5%	Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022     35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022   15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022   1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022   11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022   4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 11/4/22

As of 11/25/2022   Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%     Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%     Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%     Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%     S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%	YTD -5.5%   -12.4%   -0.9%   -28.2%   -15.5%
Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022     35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022   15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022   1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022   11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022   4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 11/4/22

Monday 11/28/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, we see what I call an ugly double bottom. That pattern occurs when the right bottom is at least 5% above the left one. However, when we're talking about an index, I don't use the 5% rule.

The double bottom confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms, shown here by a horizontal red line at C.

A throwback happens at D which brings the index back to the breakout price before it resumes its upward move.

At E, and the green line, I show overhead resistance setup by what looks like a tight knot of resistance. We'll have to see if the index turns lower or stalls there.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALB, DOX, AEE, APH, ATR, ATO, ADSK, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BG, CALM, CPB, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, EXC, FE, FISV, FMC, FWRD, FRD, IT, GIS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IPAR, ISRG, KBAL, LH, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NOC, OGE, OXM, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RL, RMBS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, SO, SWX, SR, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TSCO, TZOO, VRTX, VMC, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ITA, IDU, IHF, EWK, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PJP, IXC, MXI, XLY, GLD, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 11/25/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AJRD, AES, ALB, AMWD, ADM, ATO, ADSK, AXS, AZTA, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BFH, BMY, BG, CACI, CPB, CNP, CHS, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, ^DJT, EIX, EPAM, RE, FDS, FAST, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, GIS, GNW, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IIIN, NVTA, KALU, KMB, LH, LRCX, RAMP, L, LOW, MCHX, MRTN, MU, MS, NBR, NTAP, NOC, OMCL, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PLXS, PFG, PGR, KWR, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SO, SWX, SCS, TGT, TDOC, TKR, TREX, VRTX, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, MXI, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 11/23/22. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a chart of a bullish pattern. Last week, we saw bearish divergence which has disappeared. The thin blue line (CPI line) is now coincident instead of divergent.

What does this mean? The threat of a drop in the index appears to be over (the index didn't drop much in the past week, regardless of bearish divergence). The index is rising again.

The blue line is at or approaching the top reading of 100. So it's bullish.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red line shows improvement, but the blue line is flat, compared to a week ago. The red line might encounter resistance but I don't know if that's meaningful because we're looking at the measure of stocks in bear market territory. Does such a measure have support and resistance zones? The chart suggests that yes, it does, based on prior peaks and valleys.

You can say the same for the blue line, showing support and resistance.

Combining the two charts, the CPI one is bullish. This chart is also bullish but hints of overhead resistance. If you're an Elliott waver, the CPI chart shows a motive wave where you see 5 steps (3 higher and 2 lower, 5 total) and we're in step 4 or maybe turning higher to step 5, the last stage before an ABC correction.

I don't claim to be a waver, so it's hard for me to judge, but my guess is the index is going to rise in the coming week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 192 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AJRD, AES, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AIG, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BG, CPB, CE, CNP, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CLR, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EIX, ELV, EMR, EQT, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FE, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GE, GIS, GS, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HNI, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ISRG, IVC, KALU, K, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LH, LRCX, LEG, RAMP, LOW, M, MAN, MLM, MDC, MRK, MU, MS, NFG, NTGR, JWN, NOC, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PNW, PPL, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RGS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SCHW, SMG, SRE, SLGN, SWX, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TER, TXN, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, VLO, WRB, WLK, WSM, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IHE, IDU, FXI, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, MXI, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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