Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 08/05/2022
  Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%  
  Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-9.7%  
-11.4%  
 +3.4%  
-19.1%  
-13.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022  
  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/15/22
As of 08/05/2022
  Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%  
  Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-9.7%  
-11.4%  
 +3.4%  
-19.1%  
-13.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022  
  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/15/22

 

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Monday 8/8/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

Peaks CD and EF are twin peak chart patterns called double tops.

At AB, we see a double bottom. All of these patterns confirm as valid when price closes either above the top or below the bottom of the patterns. The move after all of them was superb.

We measure performance by the height of the pattern and you can see that the move after the patterns far exceeded their height.

The two diamond-shaped patterns are, well, diamond tops. After the top, expect the index to drop. In this case, the left diamond didn't see price drop far (just to B).

Will the second diamond behave the same? Neither diamond is well-shaped and you might be hard pressed to defend the right diamond pattern as a diamond. Having said that, the move up from B to the diamond has been a strong push. I'd expect a pause before a resumption of the uptrend. We're seeing that pause now in the shape of the diamond. After it breaks out (the breakout direction can be either up or down), then we'll know if another strong up-move will appear.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 46.73 points.
Tuesday: Down 402.23 points.
Wednesday: Up 416.33 points.
Thursday: Down 85.68 points.
Friday: Up 76.65 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 41.66 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 266.86 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 14.9 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.2% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     10.6% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     20.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     19.8% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     14.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     14.0% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,378  32,591  32,703  32,916  33,028 
Weekly  32,136  32,470  32,721  33,055  33,306 
Monthly  29,145  30,974  31,973  33,802  34,801 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,090  4,118  4,135  4,162  4,179 
Weekly  4,043  4,094  4,131  4,182  4,219 
Monthly  3,565  3,855  4,011  4,301  4,458 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,440  12,549  12,635  12,743  12,829 
Weekly  12,076  12,367  12,551  12,842  13,027 
Monthly  10,277  11,467  12,102  13,292  13,926 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AMD, AES, AA, AYX, AIG, ARW, ADP, AVA, BMI, BALL, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BFH, CIEN, CLNE, CONN, CCK, CTS, DECK, DSGR, DOV, EMR, EOG, FICO, FISV, FIVN, GME, GNW, GS, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ITW, JKHY, JNJ, KFRC, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LNC, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MLI, MUR, NFG, NWL, NOC, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PFE, KWR, DGX, RGA, RLI, ROST, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SXI, SRDX, TEVA, TKR, VFC, VMC, WLK, WOLF, ITA, IHE, DDM, IAT, IYF, IHI, EWS, IBB, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Electric Utility (West)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Aerospace/Defense6. Precision Instrument
7. Food Processing7. Electric Utility (Central)
8. Electric Utility (East)8. Electric Utility (West)
9. Natural Gas (Distributor)9. Insurance (Diversified)
10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Shoe51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Advertising52. Shoe
53. Investment Co. (Foreign)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Telecom. Equipment54. Diversified Co.
55. Apparel55. Computers and Peripherals
56. E-Commerce56. Homebuilding
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Apparel
58. Homebuilding58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Internet59. Internet
60. Computers and Peripherals60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/5/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AMD, APD, DOX, AMED, ACGL, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CALM, CHS, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DVN, DOV, DTE, DUK, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FISV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GS, HAYN, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, ITGR, IVC, JNJ, KBAL, LNC, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PRU, PEG, RLI, SLB, SO, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMC, WERN, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, IEV, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      06/13/202208/04/2022Medical Services
AESHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202207/15/2022Electric Utility (East)
AKAMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/14/202207/14/2022E-Commerce
APAPipe bottom      07/05/202207/11/2022Petroleum (Producing)
BALLDead-cat bounce      08/04/202208/04/2022Packaging and Container
BIOHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202207/14/2022Medical Supplies
BMRNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/20/202208/01/2022Biotechnology
CBTThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202207/14/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EDHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
CRThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202207/14/2022Diversified Co.
CWPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Machinery
^DJUDiamond top      08/01/202208/04/2022None
EIXPipe bottom      06/21/202206/21/2022Electric Utility (West)
FDXHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/01/202207/26/2022Air Transport
FIVNHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/25/202207/13/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FTNTTriple top      07/12/202208/03/2022Computer Software and Svcs
GDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/17/202207/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
HURCPipe top      07/18/202207/25/2022Machinery
INFNDead-cat bounce      08/03/202208/03/2022Telecom. Equipment
JAZZDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/07/202207/28/2022Biotechnology
KFRCPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Human Resources
LLYHead-and-shoulders top      07/08/202207/28/2022Drug
MTSIHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/16/202207/13/2022Semiconductor
MGEEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/16/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (Central)
MLKNPipe bottom      06/27/202207/05/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
NCRUgly double bottom      07/14/202207/26/2022IT Services
NJRPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
OUTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/16/202207/14/2022Advertising
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/202207/14/2022Apparel
PPGPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Chemical (Diversified)
PPLUgly double bottom      06/17/202207/05/2022Electric Utility (East)
PRUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/202207/14/2022Insurance (Life)
RMBSDiamond bottom      06/17/202207/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RCKYDead-cat bounce      08/03/202208/03/2022Shoe
SNPSThree Rising Valleys      05/12/202207/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TPRTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/202208/04/2022Apparel
TERDiamond bottom      06/16/202207/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
UPSThree Rising Valleys      05/19/202207/14/2022Air Transport
WWWTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/202207/21/2022Shoe
WDAYDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/23/202207/13/2022Computer Software and Svcs
XELUgly double bottom      06/17/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 8/4/22. Cryptocurrency Update: Bitcoin BTC-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.6% or 319.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 30 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 12 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 243/428 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms A and B highlight what I call an ugly double bottom. That's when the second bottom (B) is significantly above the first bottom (A). It confirms as a valid bottom reversal at C. That's when the coin closes above the top of the double bottom. The coin has struggle to move higher since C but it remains above the red confirmation line.

I drew two green lines showing the trend of the coin. Notice that it curves upward. That slope suggests strength, that the value of the coin will continue higher.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, AIZ, BMI, BALL, BAX, BFH, BG, CHS, CSCO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DSGR, D, DOV, DUK, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EVH, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GL, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LDOS, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OXY, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PPL, PRU, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SEE, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, V, WAT, WMB, XEL, IEZ, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,405.23    
 Weekly S2  11,316.37  911.15   
 Monthly S1  11,536.69  220.32   
 Monthly Pivot  11,981.48  444.78   
 Weekly S1  11,992.27  10.79   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  12,209.26  217.00   
 Daily S2  12,323.24  113.98   
 Low  12,425.21  101.97   
 Open  12,433.87  8.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  12,495.70  61.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,530.04  34.34   
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,562.42  32.38   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,594.81  32.38   
 Daily Pivot  12,597.67  2.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  12,668.16  70.49   
 High  12,699.64  31.48   
 Daily R1  12,770.13  70.49   
 Daily R2  12,872.10  101.97   
 Weekly R1  12,885.16  13.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  13,102.15  217.00   
 Monthly R1  13,112.94  10.79   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  13,557.73  444.78   

 

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My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom bookBedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me bookRemember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book


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