As of 10/03/2023   Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%     Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%     Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%     S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%	YTD -0.4%    +9.6%   -18.4%    +24.8%    +10.2%	Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023     34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023   15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023   850 or 725 by 10/15/2023   13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023   4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 9/15/23

As of 10/03/2023   Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%     Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%     Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%     S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%	YTD -0.4%    +9.6%   -18.4%    +24.8%    +10.2%
Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023     34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023   15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023   850 or 725 by 10/15/2023   13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023   4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 9/15/23

Wednesday 10/4/23. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We're back to two bearish bars separated by neutral ones.

Notice at the bottom of the chart, the thin blue CPI line. It's either at 0 or close to it. That's bearish but it could also mean that the only direction to go is up.

In the past, the time spent at 0 is brief. That suggests this drop is near an end. Of course, that's just a guess.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines this week are worse off compared to a week ago. No surprise there. The lines are convergent, too, so they are saying, "Look out below!"

Based on underlying support, it looks as if the Dow could drop to 32,600 before rebounding. By that, I mean the 32,600 level is the next level of good support. It might not be enough to stop the tumble, though. I still believe the drop is about over. I'm bullish and have been adding to existing positions.

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Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AMD, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AMWD, APH, APA, ANET, AIZ, AGO, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BSX, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CPB, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DSGR, DOV, BOOM, EMR, FARO, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, GE, GPN, GS, GES, HLIT, HIG, HE, HD, ITGR, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LEN, MCHX, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MS, NEWR, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OLN, ON, OMI, PANW, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PNW, PFG, PHM, PSTG, RL, RGA, RNG, RHI, RCKY, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SUM, TEVA, TJX, TDG, RIG, TG, UGI, UIS, UNM, VLO, WEX, WPM, WWD, IYM, IAI, IYE, FXI, IYH, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PBE, PJP, XLE, XHB, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/3/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Three falling peaks.

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Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AFL, ALB, ALKS, AFG, APA, ACGL, ADP, AVY, AVA, BECN, BBY, BIIB, BFH, CACI, CPB, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CR, CRH, CSGS, CW, DHR, DVN, DOV, EXP, EME, EMR, EOG, FIS, FE, FORM, GE, GFS, GMS, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HELE, DHI, HWM, IDA, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, JNJ, KMT, KSS, LH, LANC, RAMP, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MLKN, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NEWR, NEE, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OR, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PNW, PXD, POR, PINC, DGX, RCKY, SAND, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SKYW, SWX, SPLK, SXI, TDG, RIG, UIS, UNH, VMI, VMC, WPM, WMB, WSC, IYE, IYH, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWJ, EWM, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, GLD, XLU, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/2/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Forecast

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AFL, APD, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AEO, AXP, AME, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ADP, AVY, AVA, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIG, BRC, BR, CACI, CAL, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CTAS, CNO, CL, CONN, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, CW, DVN, DSGR, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EBAY, EME, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EL, FAST, FIS, FISV, FORM, FWRD, GME, GD, GE, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HWM, HUBG, HUN, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, TILE, IPG, KMT, KLAC, LANC, LMT, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEWR, NEU, JWN, OXY, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PXD, PINC, PSTG, QTWO, RMBS, RLI, ROP, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SPLK, TFX, TER, TDG, TRV, UHAL, VFC, VMI, MDRX, V, VMC, WRB, WMT, WMB, WSC, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLK, VHT, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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