As of 12/24/2024
Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%
Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%
Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%
Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%
S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%
|
YTD
+14.9%
+1.0%
+12.7%
+33.4%
+26.6%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/24/2024
Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%
Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%
Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%
Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%
S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%
|
YTD
+14.9%
+1.0%
+12.7%
+33.4%
+26.6%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Initial release: 8/9/2018. Statistics updated on 8/28/2020.
This article describes my analysis of the bullish crab pattern as described by publicly available information and common sense rules to determine valid patterns. Additional rules may or may not improve performance. I tested the pattern using only the below identification guidelines.
The bullish crab can resemble a double top chart pattern except that the turns are located using Fibonacci ratios. It's very rare, and you'll need a computer with pattern recognition software to fine it.
The above numbers are based on over 550 perfect trades in a bull market. See the glossary for definitions.
Because of the many ratios used, the pattern is rare. I found a few more than 550 of them since 1990. The statistics in this article only apply to bull markets.
You'll need a computer with software to find the pattern.
Find five peaks/valleys where the ratio of one leg to another is one of the Fibonacci numbers listed in the figure. However, I used a 3 percentage point window on the last ratio to keep the sample count high.
| Characteristic | Discussion |  Bullish Crab Ratios
|
| Peaks/Valleys | The peaks and valleys in the pattern need not be consecutive. This is not a guideline, but an observation. | |
| XAB | Price drops to valley X, the first point in the pattern. It rises from there to A and retraces to B. The retrace value is shown in the figure | |
| ABC | Turn ABC shows a CB/AB retrace of one of the following Fibonacci ratios shown. | |
| BCD | Extension CD/CB is one of three Fibonacci ratios. | |
| XAD | Retrace AD/AX is 161.8%. |
I don't offer much trading help because I'm new to this pattern.
Price may rise after point D. Indeed, that happens 92% of the time.
You may have better luck with the pattern if underlying support is near the XD valleys.
For targeting, price rises to the price of X 65% of the time, to A 33% of the time, to B 48% of the time, and to C 36% of the time.
The figure above shows an example of a bullish crab pattern, XABCD.
Here are the high/low prices of the various turns
Here are the ratios.
AB/AX = (41.90-39.60)/(41.90-38.65) or 70.7%, using the low at B. Using the high at B, we get: (41.9-40.23)/(41.9-38.65) or 51%. The high-low range encompasses the 61.8% retrace, so I allow it.
CB/AB = (41.36-39.60)/(41.90-39.60) or 76.5%, using the high at C. The low at C gives (40.89-39.60)/(41.90-39.60) or 56%, which encompasses the 70.7% retrace, so I allow this.
CD/CB = (41.36-36.62)/(41.36-39.60) or 269.3%. However, the high-low range of D (41.36-38.95)/(41.36-39.60) or 136.9% encompasses the 261.8% retrace, so it's allowed.
AD/AX = (41.90-36.62)/(41.90-38.65) or 162.5% which is within three percentage points of 161.8%, so it's allowed.
Price breaks out upward at E and throws back to the breakout price and keeps dropping, to F before recovering slightly. The stock drifted below the breakout price, as the chart shows.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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If it jams, force it. If it breaks, it needed replacing anyway.
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