As of 05/20/2022   Indus: 31,262 +8.77 +0.0%     Trans: 13,491 +51.76 +0.4%     Utils: 991 +1.46 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 11,355 -33.88 -0.3%     S&P 500: 3,901 +0.57 +0.0%	YTD -14.0%   -18.1%    +1.0%   -27.4%   -18.1%	Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022     33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022   14,700 or 12,400 by 06/01/2022   1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022   12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022   4,150 or 3,700 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 4/21/22

As of 05/20/2022   Indus: 31,262 +8.77 +0.0%     Trans: 13,491 +51.76 +0.4%     Utils: 991 +1.46 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 11,355 -33.88 -0.3%     S&P 500: 3,901 +0.57 +0.0%	YTD -14.0%   -18.1%    +1.0%   -27.4%   -18.1%
Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022     33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022   14,700 or 12,400 by 06/01/2022   1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022   12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022   4,150 or 3,700 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): on 4/21/22

Bulkowski on Pattern Failures by Month

This article looks at the failures of chart patterns, sorted by the month in which the breakout occurred. First posted August 2015.

Pattern Failures: Summary

I sorted chart patterns that failed to see price rise more than 10% after the breakout by their breakout date.

The average failure rate for all qualifying chart patterns in the study was 8%.

The fall/winter months (February and October through December) had fewer failures and the spring/summer months (March, April, June and July) had more failures.

Pattern Failures: Background

I received an email that asked if August showed more chart pattern failures than other months. Since it was an easy question to answer, I started the research and found the result a day later.

The results are discussed in this article.

Pattern Failures: Methodology

I used 1,263 stocks and found 23,487 chart patterns from 1988 to 2015. Not all stocks covered the entire range.

I sorted the breakout date according to the month in which it occurred.

For this test, I defined a chart pattern failure as one in which price failed to rise more than 10% after an upward breakout (to keep the sample counts high). The results are for bull markets only and for chart patterns that appear on the daily charts.

Pattern Failures: Results

Table 1 shows the results, sorted by month. For example, in January 8% of the chart patterns failed to rise more that 10% after an upward breakout in a bull market (at the time of the breakout). The 8% value is the average failure rate for all qualifying chart patterns that I measured.

February showed fewer than average failures, as the "less" box in the "More/less" row signifies.

Based on the results, we can say that February, and October through December showed fewer failures and March, April, June and July showed more failures. Generally, the fall/winter months had fewer failures and the spring/summer months had more failures.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notices: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases." Paid links).

My novels:

Copyright © 2005-2022 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer ☰

Monday is an awful way to spend one-seventh of your life