As of 10/25/2021   Indus: 35,741 +64.13 +0.2%     Trans: 15,874 +102.32 +0.6%     Utils: 918 -3.65 -0.4%     Nasdaq: 15,227 +136.51 +0.9%     S&P 500: 4,566 +21.58 +0.5%	YTD  +16.8%    +26.9%    +6.1%    +18.1%    +21.6%	Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021     36,000 or 34,600 by 11/01/2021   16,100 or 14,500 by 11/01/2021   925 or 860 by 11/01/2021   15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021   4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 10/8/21

As of 10/25/2021   Indus: 35,741 +64.13 +0.2%     Trans: 15,874 +102.32 +0.6%     Utils: 918 -3.65 -0.4%     Nasdaq: 15,227 +136.51 +0.9%     S&P 500: 4,566 +21.58 +0.5%	YTD  +16.8%    +26.9%    +6.1%    +18.1%    +21.6%
Targets    Overview: 10/14/2021     36,000 or 34,600 by 11/01/2021   16,100 or 14,500 by 11/01/2021   925 or 860 by 11/01/2021   15,400 or 14,200 by 11/01/2021   4,600 or 4,250 by 11/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 10/8/21

Bulkowski on Pattern Failures by Month

This article looks at the failures of chart patterns, sorted by the month in which the breakout occurred. First posted August 2015.

Pattern Failures: Summary

I sorted chart patterns that failed to see price rise more than 10% after the breakout by their breakout date.

The average failure rate for all qualifying chart patterns in the study was 8%.

The fall/winter months (February and October through December) had fewer failures and the spring/summer months (March, April, June and July) had more failures.

Pattern Failures: Background

I received an email that asked if August showed more chart pattern failures than other months. Since it was an easy question to answer, I started the research and found the result a day later.

The results are discussed in this article.

Pattern Failures: Methodology

I used 1,263 stocks and found 23,487 chart patterns from 1988 to 2015. Not all stocks covered the entire range.

I sorted the breakout date according to the month in which it occurred.

For this test, I defined a chart pattern failure as one in which price failed to rise more than 10% after an upward breakout (to keep the sample counts high). The results are for bull markets only and for chart patterns that appear on the daily charts.

Pattern Failures: Results

Table 1 shows the results, sorted by month. For example, in January 8% of the chart patterns failed to rise more that 10% after an upward breakout in a bull market (at the time of the breakout). The 8% value is the average failure rate for all qualifying chart patterns that I measured.

February showed fewer than average failures, as the "less" box in the "More/less" row signifies.

Based on the results, we can say that February, and October through December showed fewer failures and March, April, June and July showed more failures. Generally, the fall/winter months had fewer failures and the spring/summer months had more failures.

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