As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Updated 8/30/2023.
This article discusses the months of the year that close up most often (to sell) and buy during months with few up closes. Can you trade stocks in those months and profit?
The best month to buy is usually September. That's the month with the fewest up closes. That's true for the Dow industrials, Nasdaq composite, S&P 500, and the average of more than 500 stocks I looked at.
Good months to sell are usually November or December, but this varies depending on the index.
I programmed my computer to count the number of times price closed up from one month to the next. For example, if price closed at 10 on December 31, 2009 and on January 31, 2010 (one month later), it closed at 11, the up count total for January would increase by 1 since price closed higher than where it ended in December. If February saw price close at 11.50, then the up count total for February would increase by 1. A month showing a lower close would increase the down count total.
To get a percentage, I compared the up counts to the total of up and down counts (unchanged prices were not counted). If the up count total was 15 and down counts were 5 for January, then the percentage of those closing up would be 15/(15+5) or 75%.
The following charts, in slider format, show what I found for the Dow industrials, utilities, transports, Nasdaq, and a collection of stocks I follow.
I've included my Excel spreadsheet (.xls ~29k) of results in case you want to look at the up/down totals and charts.
This is a chart of the Dow utilities showing the percentage of closes each month. January, for example, shows an even number of up and down closes, on average (50% of each).
The best time to buy is when the utility index is down for the month. That happens three times, in February, June, and November. Those three months have the fewest up closes.
The best time to sell is in December, which closes higher 75% of the time.
This is a chart of the Dow Transports. June and August have the fewest up closes, so they represent good times to buy transportation stocks (or an ETF based on the Dow transports).
The best time to sell, in months that close higher most often, is near year end (October, November, and December).
This is a chart of the Dow industrials, showing the percentage of up closes each month. The best time to buy is September because it ends the month lower most often than the other months.
The best sell month is December, which closes higher more than 70% of the time.
February and September show the months with the fewest up closes. They represent the best time to buy. The best month to sell is November which closes up 70% of the time.
The S&P 500 index shows that September is the best buy month with the best sell months being April and December.
For this chart, I used all stocks that I follow (522) and asked which were the best buy and sell months?
The best month to buy is September, and the best month to sell is November.
-- Thomas Bulkowski.
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