As of 05/16/2022
Indus: 32,223 +26.76 +0.1%
Trans: 14,335 121.64 0.8%
Utils: 994 +1.06 +0.1%
Nasdaq: 11,663 142.21 1.2%
S&P 500: 4,008 15.88 0.4%

YTD
11.3%
13.0%
+1.3%
25.5%
15.9%

33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022

As of 05/16/2022
Indus: 32,223 +26.76 +0.1%
Trans: 14,335 121.64 0.8%
Utils: 994 +1.06 +0.1%
Nasdaq: 11,663 142.21 1.2%
S&P 500: 4,008 15.88 0.4%

YTD
11.3%
13.0%
+1.3%
25.5%
15.9%
 
33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022
 
Initial release: 6/27/2018. Statistics updated 8/28/2020.
This article describes my analysis of the bearish bat pattern as described by publicly available information and common sense rules to determine valid patterns. Additional rules may or may not improve performance. I tested the pattern using only the below identification guidelines.
The bearish bat often resembles a big W chart pattern except that the turns are located using Fibonacci ratios. It's a rare pattern, so don't expect to find it in your attic anytime soon. With so many complicated turns, you'll need better than 20/20 vision and a flashlight to find them, too.
The idea behind this pattern is that once point D is located, price should turn lower there. It does, too, 86% of the time!
Important Bull Market ResultsOverall performance rank for down moves: 1 (best) out of 5 (versus other Fibonacci patterns)
Break even failure rate: 18%
Average decline: 14%
Percentage reversing at D: 86%
The above numbers are based on more than 500 perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions. 
Characteristic  Discussion 
Bearish Bat Ratios

Peaks/Valleys  The peaks and valleys in the pattern need not be consecutive. This is not a guideline, but an observation.  
XAB  Price climbs to peak at X, the first point in the pattern. It drops from there to valley A and rises to peak B. The BA/XA retrace should be either 38.2% or 50%.  
ABC  Turn ABC shows a BC/BA retrace of one of the following Fibonacci ratios: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 70.7%, 78.6% or 88.6%.  
BCD  Extension DC/BC is one of the following Fibonacci ratios: 161.8%, 200%, 224% or 261.8%.  
DAX  Retrace DA/XA is 88.6%. 
Because of the many ratios used, especially the 88.6% DA/XA retrace, the pattern is rare. I found 537 of them.
You'll need a computer with software to find the pattern.
Find five peaks/valleys where the ratio of one leg to another is one of the Fibonacci numbers listed in the above table. However, I used a 3 percentage point window on the last ratio (88.6% becomes 85.6% to 91.6%) to keep the sample count high.
I don't offer much trading help because I'm new to this pattern.
Price may dip after point D, in fact it's likely that it does so (86% do), but the drop usually doesn't amount to much (14% average). Eighteen percent of chart patterns see price decline no more than 5% below D.
For targets, after peaking at D, price drops to A 35% of the time, to B 81% of the time, and to C 48% of the time.
You may have better luck with the pattern if overhead resistance matches or is near the XD peaks. Think of this as a ceiling which takes some pushing to break through.
I did not test or examine the pattern for this behavior. However, the following chart shows an example of this type of overhead resistance and a bat pattern.
The figure on the right shows an example of a bearish bat pattern that isn't bearish at all.
Here are the high/low prices of the various turns
Here are the ratios.
The day after D, the stock dropped to a low of 65.10 before resuming its upward move. As of 4/10/19, the stock peaked at E, dropped to about 67, and wobbled up to 76.
I drew two horizontal red lines showing what I believe is an area of overhead resistance (between the lines). I would expect the stock to peak somewhere within that area. (It did. Price dropped to 67 later in June 2018).
Indeed, the peaks at X and to the left of it stop at or near the bottom red line. The stock has bumped up against overhead resistance of the top line at E and dropped along with the general market on the last day shown.
On the weekly chart, the stock is close to making new alltime highs, so there is no additional overhead resistance once it clears the January spike (the highest price on the chart).
 Thomas Bulkowski
See Also 
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