Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 05/18/2022
  Indus: 31,490 -1,164.52 -3.6%  
  Trans: 13,692 -1,096.25 -7.4%  
  Utils: 992 -9.94 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,418 -566.37 -4.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,924 -165.17 -4.0%  
YTD
-13.3%  
-16.9%  
 +1.1%  
-27.0%  
-17.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 4/21/22
As of 05/18/2022
  Indus: 31,490 -1,164.52 -3.6%  
  Trans: 13,692 -1,096.25 -7.4%  
  Utils: 992 -9.94 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,418 -566.37 -4.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,924 -165.17 -4.0%  
YTD
-13.3%  
-16.9%  
 +1.1%  
-27.0%  
-17.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow15,500 or 13,700 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 4/21/22

 

February 2022 Headlines

Archives


Monday 2/28/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index has been sliding for 3.5 months now, so I drew two red trendlines to highlight the downtrend.

The bottom trendline is easy enough to understand with the line hugging the valleys. It has three touches, so it's a solid support line.

The top trendline is what's called an internal trendline. It cuts through price. I drew it this way to touch more peaks.

The top line suggests the rising index will bounce downward off that line when it gets there. So we might have another strong push higher on Monday and then it'll drop again. More likely, is that world events (meaning Ukraine) will take a turn this weekend and the markets will drop.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 482.57 points.
Wednesday: Down 464.85 points.
Thursday: Up 92.07 points.
Friday: Up 834.92 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 20.43 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 146.55 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 35.78 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     5.5% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     13.6% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     8.8% up from the low of 12,587.88 on 02/24/2022.
S&P 500
     9.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     6.6% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,992  33,525  33,811  34,344  34,629 
Weekly  31,653  32,856  33,476  34,679  35,299 
Monthly  30,500  32,280  34,052  35,831  37,604 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,254  4,319  4,352  4,418  4,451 
Weekly  4,024  4,204  4,295  4,475  4,566 
Monthly  3,884  4,134  4,365  4,615  4,846 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,245  13,470  13,583  13,808  13,922 
Weekly  12,217  12,956  13,326  14,065  14,435 
Monthly  11,676  12,685  13,597  14,607  15,519 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, AA, AYX, AMED, AEE, AEO, AFG, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BG, CACI, CENX, CTXS, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CAG, COST, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, XRAY, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EMR, EFX, RE, EXPD, FICO, FOE, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GPS, GL, GS, GOOGL, GFF, GES, HBI, HLIT, HE, HQY, HSII, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPG, IPI, ISRG, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LEN, LLY, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MNDT, MANH, MRTN, MDC, FB, MGEE, MSFT, NFLX, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NI, JWN, NOC, NUS, OGE, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PKG, PANW, PATK, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PICO, PNW, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RHI, ROK, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXT, TMO, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, WSO, WERN, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IGV, SOXX, PPA, PEJ, ILF, MXI, XLE, GLD, XRT, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Natural Gas (Distributor)6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Food Processing7. Metals and Mining (Div.)
8. Metals and Mining (Div.)8. Insurance (Life)
9. Insurance (Life)9. Advertising
10. Advertising10. Food Processing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Drug50. Diversified Co.
51. Medical Supplies51. Computers and Peripherals
52. Homebuilding52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Drug
54. Short ETFs54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Computers and Peripherals55. Medical Supplies
56. Biotechnology56. Short ETFs
57. Healthcare Information57. Biotechnology
58. E-Commerce58. Healthcare Information
59. Shoe59. Shoe
60. Retail (Special Lines)60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/25/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 289 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ADS, AMED, AEP, AXP, AFG, AIG, ABC, AMGN, APH, ANIK, AON, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AGO, AVNT, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BCPC, BLL, BBBY, BERY, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, ED, CONN, COP, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CMI, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, D, DTE, EMN, EIX, EMR, EPAM, EL, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FTNT, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, IT, GE, GIS, GNW, GL, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HURC, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IVC, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAWS, LNC, L, LXU, M, MNDT, MANH, MAN, MRK, MGEE, MLKN, MS, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NI, NWPX, NVDA, ORI, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PANW, PAYX, PFE, PICO, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RGA, REV, RHI, ^GSPC, SIGI, SLGN, SWN, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TRV, TZOO, UNM, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WOLF, WWW, IYK, IHI, IHE, IDU, FXI, ICF, IHF, IAT, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PJP, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLU, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/10/202202/16/2022Apparel
ACNPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022IT Services
AEODouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/26/202202/10/2022Apparel
AELDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/14/202202/11/2022Insurance (Life)
APHTriple top      01/26/202202/09/2022Electronics
ADSKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022Computer Software and Svcs
BMRNPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022Biotechnology
BAPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
CEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/03/202202/10/2022Chemical (Basic)
CMCOTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/202202/23/2022Machinery
DECKHorn top      01/31/202202/14/2022Shoe
DVNPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
DHead-and-shoulders top      01/21/202202/22/2022Electric Utility (East)
FICOPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022IT Services
FIVNPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FMCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/10/202202/18/2022Chemical (Basic)
FDPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/10/202202/17/2022Food Processing
GPNTriple top      01/06/202202/10/2022Computer Software and Svcs
GOOGLPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Internet
HSCDead-cat bounce      02/24/202202/24/2022Diversified Co.
IPARDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/01/202202/09/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
KSSHorn top      01/24/202202/07/2022Retail Store
MTriple top      01/25/202202/22/2022Retail Store
MLMHead-and-shoulders top      02/01/202202/17/2022Cement and Aggregates
NTAPDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/09/202202/18/2022Computers and Peripherals
PEGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/07/202202/09/2022Electric Utility (East)
QCOMPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Telecom. Equipment
RHIPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022Human Resources
RCKYHorn top      01/24/202202/07/2022Shoe
SCHWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/14/202202/09/2022Securities Brokerage
SUMBroadening bottom      01/28/202202/16/2022Cement and Aggregates
TPXDead-cat bounce      02/22/202202/22/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
TEVADouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/14/202202/09/2022Drug
VMCTriple top      02/01/202202/17/2022Cement and Aggregates
XELDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/10/202202/03/2022Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 2/24/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.6% or -344.03 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 35 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 22 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 13 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/413 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The blue channel shows a slope of the downtrend that mirrors what we see happening now (red channel). The blue channel drops slightly faster and is shorter than the red channel.

Also notice that the index is near the bottom of the red channel. That suggests the index will rise soon. Of course, world events will determine the direction and speed of the move. I think we'll have more of a decline to come, pushed lower by Putin.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 222 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AMED, AEP, AFG, AMWD, APH, AON, AMAT, ATR, ADM, ASH, AGO, AZTA, BCPC, BIO, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CAL, CE, CIEN, CLF, CNA, CMCO, CMTL, ED, DHR, DECK, XRAY, ^DJU, D, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EFX, EL, RE, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FDP, GPN, GS, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HD, HURC, IDXX, INCY, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, JBLU, KELYA, KLAC, LAWS, LEG, RAMP, MTSI, M, MA, MTRX, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NKE, NI, NUS, NVDA, OGE, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PAYX, PYPL, PCG, PICO, POR, PPG, PG, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RGS, REV, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SO, LUV, SR, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TER, TXN, TXT, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UPS, UNM, VMI, VEEV, V, WAT, WSO, WLK, WEX, WWW, WDAY, IYK, IYC, IHE, IDU, DDM, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, PEJ, PJP, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,873.58    
 Monthly S1  12,455.53  581.96   
 Daily S2  12,699.54  244.00   
 Weekly S2  12,857.42  157.89   
 Daily S1  12,868.51  11.09   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  12,947.46  78.94   
 Low  13,032.17  84.71   
 Close  13,037.49  5.32   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,201.15  163.66   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,223.79  22.64   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,282.97  59.19   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,342.17  59.19   
 Daily R1  13,370.12  27.96   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  13,511.75  141.63   
 High  13,533.78  22.03   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  13,555.59  21.81   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  13,645.63  90.03   
 Monthly Pivot  13,676.61  30.98   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  13,702.76  26.15   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R2  14,253.76  551.01   
 Monthly R1  14,258.56  4.80   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  15,479.64  1,221.07   

Wednesday 2/23/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal issued about 2 weeks ago was timely because the index dropped. See the vertical red line on the far right of the chart.

I expect the index to drop further because of the Ukraine issue. What's interesting is that energy issues (at least 2 securities I looked at) dropped today. I expected them to rise. Metals rose (but I only looked at HL). That's a surprise, too.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 48% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 48% on 01/27/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 01/27/2022.

Both lines this week are down compared to a week ago. That's no surprise, of course. The red and blue lines are making new lows.

The red line has completed a head-and-shoulder's top in the last month. It's a pretty one, too.

Both charts are bearish, so I'm going to stay with my bearish stance. World events will likely determine the direction of the markets over the coming weeks.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AFL, AA, AMWD, APH, AON, APA, AMAT, ATO, ADP, AVA, AZTA, BA, BRC, BBW, CAL, CENX, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CLNE, ED, COP, CLR, CRH, CROX, CMI, DECK, DVN, DDS, DOV, DRQ, EOG, EL, RE, XOM, FICO, FAST, GPS, GL, EVRG, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HNI, HD, HURC, IIIN, TILE, IVC, JNJ, KALU, KLAC, KSS, LEG, M, MANH, MRO, MTRX, MRK, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NKE, NI, JWN, OXY, OGE, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PATK, PETS, PPG, PPL, PG, REV, RCKY, ROG, SAIC, SCS, SNPS, TGT, TPX, TSCO, RIG, VLO, WU, IYK, IYE, IEO, IHE, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXC, ILF, XLY, XLP, XLE, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/22/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.7% or -232.85 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 292 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 297 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 240/427 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/93 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Jones Apparel Group: JNY.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACN, ADBE, AMD, AKAM, ALB, AA, AYX, AMZN, AMN, AMAT, AVNT, BAH, BRC, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CTXS, CLNE, CLX, CGNX, CL, CROX, DHR, DDS, EQT, XOM, FAST, FRD, GE, GOOGL, HE, HAYN, HQY, HL, HOLX, HOV, HURC, INFN, INTC, IPG, JNJ, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LLY, L, MHO, M, NWL, OTEX, PPL, QCOM, RCKY, ^GSPC, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SCS, SNPS, TMO, SLCA, VMI, WU, WEX, IAI, IHE, DDM, ICF, IHF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWJ, EWW, EWY, EWD, THD, QLD, DBA, PBE, IXC, XLY, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,562.55    
 Monthly S1  32,820.86  1,258.32   
 Weekly S2  33,296.11  475.24   
 Weekly S1  33,687.64  391.54   
 Daily S2  33,712.25  24.60   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  33,895.71  183.47   
 Low  33,976.18  80.46   
 Close  34,079.18  103.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,147.09  67.91   
 Daily Pivot  34,159.65  12.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,199.88  40.23   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,252.67  52.79   
 Open  34,310.45  57.78   
 Daily R1  34,343.11  32.66   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  34,367.71  24.60   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Monthly Pivot  34,408.65  40.93   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  34,423.58  14.93   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  34,607.05  183.47   
 Weekly R1  34,759.25  152.21   
 Weekly R2  35,439.33  680.07   
 Monthly R1  35,666.96  227.64   
 Monthly R2  37,254.75  1,587.78   

Monday 2/21/22. Market Holiday, Site Support

Picture of a bug

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 2/18/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 96 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALB, AMZN, AMED, AMN, AMAT, AVA, BAX, BECN, BKH, CRL, CGNX, CAG, CROX, CCRN, DVN, DDS, DRQ, EQT, XOM, FAST, FE, GOOGL, EVRG, HTLD, HL, HOLX, HURC, IBKR, IPG, IPI, JNJ, KSS, LZB, LANC, LLY, RAMP, M, MTRN, MRK, MS, NFLX, NWL, OTEX, PKG, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PICO, PPL, PRU, QCOM, RLI, RCKY, RES, SMG, SWX, SNPS, TMO, TSCO, RIG, VMI, VC, WEX, WOLF, IAI, IYE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IHF, IYF, ECH, EWW, EWY, EWD, QLD, PJP, ROBO, IXC, ILF, XLF, GLD, XLU, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Medical Supplies
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022IT Services
AKAMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/19/202202/02/2022E-Commerce
ALRMTriangle, symmetrical      01/28/202202/17/2022Computer Software and Svcs
ALBDead-cat bounce      02/17/202202/17/2022Chemical (Diversified)
AAScallop, ascending and inverted      12/03/202101/31/2022Aerospace/Defense
AYXTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/202202/15/2022Computer Software and Svcs
APAHead-and-shoulders top      01/27/202202/10/2022Petroleum (Producing)
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/04/2022Building Materials
AVNTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/07/2022Chemical (Specialty)
BBBYThree Falling Peaks      02/01/202202/16/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BBYTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/202202/08/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BIIBFalling wedge      01/12/202202/17/2022Biotechnology
BKHHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202202/14/2022Electric Utility (West)
BBWRoof, inverted      01/18/202202/04/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CDNSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022Computer Software and Svcs
CRLPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Biotechnology
CHSTriple bottom      01/21/202202/04/2022Apparel
CMTLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/07/2022Telecom. Equipment
EDBroadening top      12/16/202102/03/2022Electric Utility (East)
CONNTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/202202/17/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CRDiamond top      02/01/202202/17/2022Diversified Co.
CRHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/10/2022Cement and Aggregates
DHRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022Precision Instrument
DFSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/24/202201/28/2022Financial Services
^DJIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022None
FEBroadening top      01/05/202202/14/2022Electric Utility (East)
GPSHead-and-shoulders top      01/27/202202/10/2022Apparel
GEPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Diversified Co.
GPROTriangle, symmetrical      01/28/202202/16/2022Electronics
HBIHead-and-shoulders top      01/26/202202/10/2022Apparel
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202101/25/2022Medical Supplies
HNITriple bottom      01/24/202202/07/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
HUBGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/04/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IBPTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/202202/17/2022Retail Building Supply
INTUPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Computer Software and Svcs
KALUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/28/202202/04/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
KLICRoof, inverted      01/21/202202/17/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LZBDead-cat bounce      02/16/202202/16/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LEGTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/202202/17/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LOWFalling wedge      02/02/202202/17/2022Retail Building Supply
MTSITriangle, symmetrical      01/28/202202/17/2022Semiconductor
MANHTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/202202/17/2022IT Services
MTRNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/28/202202/07/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
MURTriangle, symmetrical      02/07/202202/17/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
^IXICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/10/2022None
NWLPipe bottom      01/31/202202/07/2022Household Products
OGETriple top      12/31/202102/04/2022Electric Utility (Central)
PDCOTriple bottom      01/25/202202/14/2022Medical Supplies
PETSUgly double bottom      01/24/202202/04/2022Medical Services
PNWHead-and-shoulders complex top      12/31/202102/08/2022Electric Utility (West)
PORHead-and-shoulders complex top      12/16/202102/03/2022Electric Utility (West)
PGRDiamond top      01/10/202202/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KWRTriple bottom      01/28/202202/11/2022Chemical (Specialty)
RESFlag, high and tight      12/20/202102/16/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^GSPCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/09/2022None
SODouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/10/202201/31/2022Electric Utility (East)
LUVHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202202/04/2022Air Transport
SRTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/202202/17/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
TPRHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/10/202202/04/2022Apparel
TMOPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Precision Instrument
TKRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/07/2022Metal Fabricating
TZOOUgly double bottom      01/21/202202/04/2022Internet
SLCATriple bottom      01/24/202202/08/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VEEVDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/02/202202/10/2022Healthcare Information
VRSNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202202/11/2022Internet
VCTriple bottom      01/28/202202/11/2022Electronics
WATPipe top      02/01/202202/09/2022Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 2/17/22. Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH-USD)

The Nasdaq index dropped by -0.1% or -15.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 620 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 345 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 275 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/412 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency Ethereum on the daily scale.

I drew a down-sloping trendline along the peaks, forming trendline C.

The trendline measure rule is the height of the dip (blue line A) added to the breakout, which we'll assume is today (it hasn't broken out yet, but it depends on how you draw the red line), giving a target B (another blue line). This is just a mechanical measure. It only has relevance as a gauge to determine how often price will actually reach the target.

For stocks, the target is hit 56% of the time. A better target is to use the start of the trendline as the target. That works 77% of the time. In this example, there's not a lot of difference between the two targets. I will say that the target is awfully far away...

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, ADBE, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, ABC, AVA, BMI, BRC, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DHR, DVN, DDS, WIRE, EFX, XOM, FIS, FRD, GOOGL, EVRG, HQY, HL, HP, HOLX, HURC, IPG, KSS, LHX, LZB, L, M, MTRX, NJR, NWL, NUS, OXY, OMCL, PTEN, QCOM, RMBS, RCKY, SMG, SCCO, SCS, TMO, TSCO, TG, SLCA, WEX, XEL, DDM, ICF, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWW, EZA, QLD, DBA, PXJ, ILF, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,954.88    
 Monthly S1  13,039.48  1,084.61   
 Weekly S2  13,345.87  306.39   
 Weekly S1  13,734.98  389.11   
 Daily S2  13,841.53  106.55   
 Low  13,931.99  90.46   
 Daily S1  13,982.81  50.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,020.51  37.71   
 Open  14,038.92  18.41   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,047.86  8.94   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  14,073.27  25.41   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,075.21  1.94   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  14,122.27  47.06   
 Close  14,124.09  1.82   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  14,163.73  39.64   
 Monthly Pivot  14,179.26  15.53   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  14,214.55  35.29   
 Daily R2  14,305.01  90.46   
 Weekly R1  14,511.38  206.37   
 Weekly R2  14,898.67  387.29   
 Monthly R1  15,263.86  365.19   
 Monthly R2  16,403.64  1,139.77   

Wednesday 2/16/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator signaled a bullish turn even as I predict the indices will tumble. The uptick in the indicator is a result of today's big move up in the indices (the major ones were up more than 1%).

My feeling is that if Russia invades Ukraine the markets will drop. Energy prices will rise. Inflation will probably go higher, too, spooking an already shaky market. The outlook is very much tied to what happens in world events. So I changed my targets (see page top) to bearish for the next two weeks.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 48% on 01/27/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 01/27/2022.

The red line showed a slight improvement compared to last week. However, almost half of my stocks are still down at least 20% from their highs.

The blue line follows the shape of the index closely. The red line has larger swings, but it also looks similar. The trend of the red and blue lines is downward and that's different from what we see in the index. So the lines aren't exact replicas of the index. Maybe a way to think of the red line is the say that it represents how solid the underlying stocks are in the index. Because the red line is trending lower over time, it suggests an erosion of the overall market.

What does this mean going forward? I don't know because it hasn't meant anything so far. The red line trends downward from the left to the right of the chart and yet the markets continue to rise. So we really can't use this as a warning of a bear market or even a coming correction.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AMD, ALK, DOX, AEE, AXP, AMGN, AON, AAPL, ARW, ATO, BBBY, BIIB, BRC, BMY, CBT, CAL, CRL, CHKP, CINF, COP, GLW, CRH, CCK, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DDS, DRQ, EXP, EMR, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FIS, FISV, FRD, GL, GOOGL, HLIT, HQY, HP, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HURC, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, IPG, INTU, IVC, KMB, KSS, LZB, LDOS, LLY, LNC, M, MCHX, MRTN, NTAP, NWL, NWPX, OLN, OMI, PINC, QCOM, RL, RJF, RCKY, ROG, RES, SMG, SXI, SUM, TXT, TMO, TSCO, SLCA, WAT, WU, WMB, WOLF, XEL, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, IYH, IAT, IYF, ECH, EWH, EWM, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PJP, IXN, XLF, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/15/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.5% or -171.89 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 781 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 393 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 388 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 239/426 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/93 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring JetBlue: JBLU.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AYX, DOX, AEE, AEP, AIG, AMN, APH, AMAT, ATR, ARW, ATO, AVA, BAX, BMRN, BA, CALM, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, ED, COTY, DHR, BOOM, EXP, EIX, WIRE, EVH, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GPS, GE, GNW, GILD, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HAYN, HL, HSY, HUBG, HURC, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, JBLU, KELYA, KBAL, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, MTSI, MNDT, MANH, MRTN, MU, MLI, NBR, CNR, NFLX, NTGR, NXGN, NI, JWN, OUT, OMI, PAYX, PFE, PICO, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, RMBS, RGS, SCHW, SO, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TXT, TOL, RIG, TRV, UNM, VEEV, WERN, WU, WLK, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ITA, IHE, FXL, FXI, ICF, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, ILF, XLP, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,379.91    
 Monthly S1  32,973.04  1,593.13   
 Weekly S2  33,799.90  826.86   
 Daily S2  34,098.06  298.16   
 Weekly S1  34,183.04  84.98   
 Low  34,304.28  121.25   
 Daily S1  34,332.11  27.83   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,472.47  140.36   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,524.42  51.95   
 Daily Pivot  34,538.34  13.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  34,566.17  27.84   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,576.37  10.20   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  34,694.50  118.13   
 Monthly Pivot  34,743.46  48.96   
 High  34,744.56  1.10   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  34,772.39  27.84   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  34,978.62  206.22   
 Weekly Pivot  35,003.66  25.04   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  35,386.79  383.14   
 Weekly R2  36,207.42  820.63   
 Monthly R1  36,336.59  129.17   
 Monthly R2  38,107.01  1,770.42   

Monday 2/14/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The two red lines highlight a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. That's price bounded by two up-sloping and diverging trendlines. The chart pattern breaks out downward 52% of the time in a bull market (which is about random).

My guess is the index will breakout downward when Russia invades Ukraine. That might happen as soon as this week but it might not happen at all. A sharp drop in the market averages will take most things down, including the utilities.

Clearly utilities will suffer in a rising interest rate environment because of the debt they hold, so they are facing headwinds.

Having written that, you wouldn't know that utilities face trouble by their performance over the past year. I'm not talking about the percentage gain, but that the index is rising over time. That rise began with the Covid bear market low in March 2020. That's almost 2 years ago now.

To sum this up, I'm looking for a downward breakout from this chart pattern. If I'm wrong, then you'll see the index bounce off the bottom trendline and head higher. It has completed a partial rise (the rise shown between the last two bottom trendline touches), which also suggests a downward breakout.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 1.39 points.
Tuesday: Up 371.65 points.
Wednesday: Up 305.28 points.
Thursday: Down 526.47 points.
Friday: Down 503.53 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 351.68 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 306.86 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 81.89 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     4.8% up from the low of 33,150.33 on 01/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     13.0% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     5.3% up from the low of 13,094.65 on 01/24/2022.
S&P 500
     8.3% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     4.6% up from the low of 4,222.62 on 01/24/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,119  34,429  34,930  35,239  35,741 
Weekly  33,857  34,298  35,061  35,501  36,265 
Monthly  31,437  33,088  34,801  36,451  38,164 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,324  4,371  4,449  4,496  4,574 
Weekly  4,281  4,350  4,470  4,539  4,659 
Monthly  3,937  4,178  4,463  4,704  4,990 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,410  13,601  13,924  14,114  14,437 
Weekly  13,235  13,513  14,011  14,289  14,788 
Monthly  11,844  12,818  14,068  15,042  16,293 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, ADBE, ALK, AYX, DOX, AEE, AEO, AIG, AMN, ARCB, ARW, ADP, BERY, BMRN, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BMY, CALM, CE, CENX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CAG, COP, COST, COTY, CCRN, DHR, ^DJU, DTE, EXP, EIX, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EVH, FAST, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GPS, GE, GNW, EVRG, GES, HBI, HAYN, HL, HD, HURC, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, JBLU, JNJ, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LRCX, LAWS, LXU, MTSI, MNDT, MAN, MRTN, MA, MU, MLI, CNR, NFLX, NWL, NUS, OMC, OUT, OMI, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PICO, PPG, PPL, PFG, PEG, RMBS, RNG, ROG, RES, SCHW, SMTC, SXI, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TXT, TMO, TZOO, TREX, UPS, UNM, VEEV, VRTX, V, VC, WU, WLK, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYE, IEO, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLY, XLU, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing6. Insurance (Life)
7. Insurance (Life)7. Natural Gas (Distributor)
8. Food Processing8. Insurance (Diversified)
9. Insurance (Diversified)9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.10. Securities Brokerage
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Diversified Co.
51. Medical Supplies51. Homebuilding
52. Drug52. Medical Supplies
53. Homebuilding53. Apparel
54. Apparel54. Drug
55. Short ETFs55. Biotechnology
56. Biotechnology56. Retail (Special Lines)
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Short ETFs
58. Healthcare Information58. E-Commerce
59. E-Commerce59. Healthcare Information
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/11/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 102 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEE, AIG, AMWD, ARW, AGO, BMRN, BA, CALM, CE, CENX, EIX, WIRE, EQT, RE, FIVN, FORM, FCX, GE, GNW, GILD, THG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSIC, HSY, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, TILE, IPI, KALU, KMB, KSS, LAWS, RAMP, L, LXU, MNDT, MRTN, MLM, MDT, MU, MOS, MLI, CNR, NTGR, NEU, NEE, OLN, OMC, PKE, PATK, PAYX, PPL, PFG, RGS, RGA, SCHW, SRE, SMTC, SXI, TPR, TFX, TMO, UNM, VRTX, VC, WMT, WU, WLK, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IAT, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWM, EPP, ILF, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTNPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Telecom. Equipment
ATSGHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202202/04/2022Air Transport
ADSPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Information Services
DOXUgly double bottom      12/02/202101/24/2022IT Services
AXPTriple bottom      12/01/202101/24/2022Financial Services
AMGNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/24/202202/07/2022Biotechnology
ACGLThree Rising Valleys      11/30/202101/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AIZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202101/24/2022Insurance (Diversified)
AGOUgly double bottom      12/20/202101/24/2022Insurance (Life)
BAPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Aerospace/Defense
BBWPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CALMPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Food Processing
CENXPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CINFMulti-peaks      04/30/202102/10/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLNEPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
CWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/04/2022Machinery
XRAYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/25/202202/04/2022Medical Supplies
^DJTTriangle, symmetrical      01/20/202202/10/2022None
EXPTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/202202/10/2022Cement and Aggregates
WIREPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
FLSTriangle, symmetrical      01/18/202202/07/2022Machinery
FMCDiamond top      12/28/202102/08/2022Chemical (Basic)
FCXPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
GDThree Rising Valleys      11/30/202101/24/2022Aerospace/Defense
GNWPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Insurance (Life)
GESPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Apparel
HAYNPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Building Materials
HLPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
ILMNPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Biotechnology
INCYHead-and-shoulders top      12/30/202102/01/2022Drug
INFNHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/21/202202/04/2022Telecom. Equipment
IPARHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
JBLUDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/01/202101/24/2022Air Transport
KLACBroadening top      11/08/202101/24/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MNDTPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Computer Software and Svcs
MRKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/11/202202/02/2022Drug
MUPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Semiconductor
MLIPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Metal Fabricating
JWNPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Retail Store
ORIPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PAYXPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022IT Services
RESPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SAIADiamond bottom      01/10/202202/10/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCHWPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Securities Brokerage
SEEHead-and-shoulders top      01/05/202202/01/2022Packaging and Container
SKXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202101/28/2022Shoe
SCCOHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/25/202202/04/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
LUVUgly double bottom      12/20/202101/28/2022Air Transport
SXIPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Diversified Co.
TFXPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Diversified Co.
UGIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/05/202201/19/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/02/202101/28/2022Air Transport
UNMPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Insurance (Diversified)
WERNMulti-peaks      05/18/202102/10/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WLKPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Chemical (Basic)
WOLFPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 2/10/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.1% or 295.92 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 53 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 32 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 21 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/411 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's analyze the chart left to right. BC is a double bottom which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal, yellow line D. The chart pattern seems to fall short of its promise when the index fails to rise at least the height of the pattern above D.

Next is a head-and-shoulders bottom shown here as L (left shoulder), H (head), and R (right shoulder). This pattern confirms as valid after a close above blue line A. This chart pattern appears to have met the target today.

I drew a red line along the peaks. The index spend most of today (Wednesday) riding along that line. Look to a week ago and you'll see a peak near where the index reached today. It suggests overhead resistance. So I'd look for the index to drop near the open or maybe close lower. The above probabilities suggest a rise, so one of us is wrong.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ATSG, ALK, ALB, ADS, AYX, AIG, ABC, APH, ANIK, AON, ARW, AIZ, ADP, AVNT, BAX, BZH, BBY, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BMY, BG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CENX, CRL, CHS, CSCO, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, COST, COTY, CCK, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, ^DJI, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EVH, FICO, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FDP, GME, GE, GNW, GGG, THG, HE, HAYN, HL, HSIC, HSY, HD, HURC, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KLAC, KSS, LH, LAWS, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MNDT, MAN, MRTN, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MU, MLKN, MCO, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NEE, NUS, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PATK, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, PFG, RJF, RGA, REV, RNG, RLI, ROG, ROST, SCHW, SMG, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TJX, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VC, WAT, WLK, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ITA, IAI, IYC, IHI, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLV, XHB, XRT, XAR, UNG, SMH, VHT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,721.56    
 Monthly S1  13,105.97  1,384.40   
 Weekly S2  13,517.19  411.22   
 Weekly S1  14,003.78  486.59   
 Weekly Pivot  14,254.30  250.52   
 Daily S2  14,277.47  23.17   
 Low  14,330.87  53.40   
 Open  14,368.16  37.29   
 Daily S1  14,383.92  15.76   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,391.93  8.01   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,410.79  18.86   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,429.66  18.86   
 Daily Pivot  14,437.32  7.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  14,479.05  41.73   
 Close  14,490.37  11.32   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  14,490.72  0.35   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  14,543.77  53.05   
 Daily R2  14,597.17  53.40   
 Weekly R1  14,740.89  143.72   
 Weekly R2  14,991.41  250.52   
 Monthly R1  15,863.46  872.05   
 Monthly R2  17,236.54  1,373.09   

Wednesday 2/9/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is still green, bullish. I show that by the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart.

If you look at the indicator line near the bottom of the chart, you'll see that there's more room for the CPI to rise to 100 (it's at 94%). That suggests more of an up move to come.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 38%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 49% on 01/27/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 01/27/2022.

If you compare the movement of the thin blue line in the CPI chart (since late January) with the red one here, you'll see a stair-step rise in the CPI. The red line in this chart, however, has a lower step (from mid-February, onward). The prior chart shows a strong move up. This chart follows the index and doesn't show that strength. This chart appears to lag what we see in the CPI chart.

This chart is bullish but less enthusiastic than the CPI chart. Because I view this chart as a near echo or mirror of what we see the index doing, I rely more on the CPI chart. That chart is bullish, so it matches my attitude toward the market in the coming week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ALRM, ADS, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AMGN, ANTM, ARW, AVNT, BAX, BA, BOOT, BRC, BG, CALM, CE, CNP, CENX, CRL, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CLR, CCK, CTS, CMI, EBAY, WIRE, EXC, FISV, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GME, GE, GNW, GFF, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSII, HNI, HURC, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, JKHY, JAZZ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LH, RAMP, LXU, MNDT, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MRK, MU, MLKN, MLI, NFG, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NUS, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PNW, PFG, KWR, RES, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, NOW, LUV, SXI, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TG, UNM, VRSN, VC, WLK, WMB, WOLF, WDAY, ITA, IYM, IYC, IHI, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWK, ECH, EPP, EWS, EZA, SSO, XLY, XLV, SPY, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/8/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.39 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1344 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 721 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 623 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 238/425 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/93 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Intertape Polymer: ITP stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AJRD, APD, AKAM, ADS, AEE, AEO, AEP, AIG, AMN, AAPL, AVY, BMI, BLL, BZH, BKH, BMY, BBW, CACI, CPB, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, COP, CLR, COST, CRH, CCRN, CCK, DECK, DVN, ^DJT, EXP, FMC, FWRD, GPS, GFF, GES, HBI, HOLX, HURC, ITGR, IPAR, IPI, INTU, JAZZ, K, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LAMR, L, M, MANH, MAS, MTRX, MRK, FB, MS, CNR, NFLX, NJR, JWN, ORI, OTEX, PYPL, PETS, PICO, PFG, PHM, QCOM, RJF, ROST, RES, SEE, SHW, SWX, SXI, TDC, TER, TXN, TMO, TZOO, TREX, UNM, VRSN, V, WEX, WMB, WSM, IYM, IYE, ITB, IAT, IYZ, IGE, EWC, ECH, EWI, EWM, EWS, THD, TUR, DBA, PBE, XHB, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,262.38    
 Monthly S1  33,176.76  1,914.38   
 Weekly S2  33,905.71  728.95   
 Weekly S1  34,498.42  592.71   
 Daily S2  34,805.68  307.25   
 Daily S1  34,948.40  142.73   
 Low  34,993.98  45.58   
 Monthly Pivot  35,064.70  70.72   
 Weekly Pivot  35,088.81  24.11   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  35,091.13  2.32   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  35,108.38  17.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,120.43  12.05   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  35,136.71  16.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,159.50  22.79   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,198.55  39.06   
 Daily R1  35,279.43  80.88   
 High  35,325.01  45.58   
 Daily R2  35,467.74  142.73   
 Weekly R1  35,681.52  213.78   
 Weekly R2  36,271.91  590.39   
 Monthly R1  36,979.08  707.17   
 Monthly R2  38,867.02  1,887.95   

Monday 2/7/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index, on the daily scale.

I drew an up-sloping channel, shown here with red lines. If you consider the channel as a chart pattern, we see that the index is pulling back to the bottom of the channel.

It follows that the index would drop after completion of the pullback (after point A). That's what we're seeing now.

I see the index following the blue line. We'll see the index drop some and then resume moving up. I didn't measure the retrace from the top of the pullback (A) to the following low, but it's possible that the index will rise on Monday and continue moving up.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a thermometer.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 406.39 points.
Tuesday: Up 273.38 points.
Wednesday: Up 224.09 points.
Thursday: Down 518.17 points.
Friday: Down 21.42 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 364.27 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 327.44 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 68.68 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     5.9% up from the low of 33,150.33 on 01/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     11.1% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     7.7% up from the low of 13,094.65 on 01/24/2022.
S&P 500
     6.6% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     6.6% up from the low of 4,222.62 on 01/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,540  34,815  35,074  35,349  35,609 
Weekly  33,905  34,497  35,088  35,681  36,271 
Monthly  31,262  33,176  35,064  36,978  38,867 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,409  4,455  4,497  4,543  4,585 
Weekly  4,322  4,411  4,503  4,593  4,685 
Monthly  3,918  4,209  4,514  4,805  5,110 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,685  13,891  14,057  14,264  14,429 
Weekly  13,386  13,742  14,124  14,479  14,861 
Monthly  11,591  12,844  14,348  15,602  17,106 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AJRD, ADS, AMZN, AEO, AEL, AIG, AMWD, AMN, AAPL, AVY, AZTA, BMI, BZH, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, BMY, BBW, CPB, CF, CLNE, CLX, CLR, CCRN, DVN, DDS, EOG, XOM, GPS, IT, GNW, GPRO, GES, HTLD, HD, HON, HOV, HURC, INTC, IPAR, IPI, IVC, KBH, KSS, LZB, LEN, LNC, LOW, M, MRO, MAS, MTRX, MS, MOS, NFG, CNR, NWL, JWN, NWPX, ORI, OTEX, PAYX, PRFT, PFG, RJF, RGA, RES, SEE, SEIC, NOW, SHW, SKX, SWX, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TFX, TJX, RIG, TZOO, UGI, UNM, WMB, WSM, IYE, IEO, FXL, IAT, IGE, ECH, EWS, TUR, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, XLE, XHB, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Insurance (Life)6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Natural Gas (Distributor)7. Insurance (Life)
8. Insurance (Diversified)8. Retail Building Supply
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Securities Brokerage10. Electric Utility (East)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Diversified Co.50. E-Commerce
51. Homebuilding51. Financial Services
52. Medical Supplies52. Medical Supplies
53. Apparel53. Diversified Co.
54. Drug54. Drug
55. Biotechnology55. Apparel
56. Retail (Special Lines)56. Short ETFs
57. Short ETFs57. Biotechnology
58. E-Commerce58. Retail (Special Lines)
59. Healthcare Information59. Shoe
60. Shoe60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/4/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, ALRM, ADS, AYX, AEO, AMWD, AMN, AAPL, AVA, BMI, BSET, BAX, BERY, BMRN, BKNG, EPAY, BBW, CAL, CNC, CNP, CLNE, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DVN, EPAM, EXC, EZPW, GPS, GIS, GES, HBI, HLIT, HE, HL, HD, HURC, IDXX, ITW, IBP, IPAR, IPG, IVC, KALU, KSS, LZB, LEG, LOW, M, MAN, FB, MS, MYGN, CNR, NWL, JWN, NWPX, ORI, OTEX, PYPL, PRFT, PICO, POR, PFG, PGR, PRU, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, REV, ROST, RES, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, TDOC, TJX, TRV, TZOO, VLO, VRTX, WSM, WWW, FDN, FXI, IAT, XLY, XRT, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AELPipe top      01/10/202201/18/2022Insurance (Life)
AAPLPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Computers and Peripherals
BMIPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Precision Instrument
BBBYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/11/202201/21/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BOOTThree Falling Peaks      11/18/202112/30/2021Shoe
CNCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/06/202201/26/2022Medical Services
EXCDead-cat bounce      02/02/202202/02/2022Electric Utility (East)
EZPWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/13/202201/28/2022Financial Services
HDPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Retail Building Supply
KSSPipe bottom      12/13/202112/20/2021Retail Store
LZBPipe bottom      01/24/202201/24/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
FBDead-cat bounce      02/03/202202/03/2022E-Commerce
MLKNTriangle, symmetrical      12/08/202102/03/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
MSPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Securities Brokerage
ORIHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/01/202101/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PTENRoof, inverted      01/11/202202/03/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PYPLDead-cat bounce      02/02/202202/02/2022Financial Services
PGRoof, inverted      12/29/202102/03/2022Household Products
RJFPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Securities Brokerage
SCCOPipe top      01/10/202201/18/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
SSYSBroadening wedge, descending      01/03/202202/02/2022Electronics
SRDXDead-cat bounce      02/03/202202/03/2022Medical Supplies
TPRThree Falling Peaks      11/22/202101/05/2022Apparel
TJXPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Retail Store
SLCAPipe top      01/10/202201/18/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VLOPipe top      10/18/202110/25/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
WSMPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Retail (Special Lines)

 

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Thursday 2/3/22. Bitcoin

The index climbed by 0.5% or 71.55 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq index made 579 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 392 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 187 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 67.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 234/410 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin on the daily scale.

I've already discussed the double top at AB, confirmed at C when the index closed below it.

I drew two blue lines which form a down-sloping channel. Notice the position of the coin within those two blue lines. The coin is heading toward the top blue line but today it turned lower. I drew a second line, green, to highlight closer overhead resistance (setup by the green trendline). Because the coin turned lower as it approached the green line, I think it's going down to the lower blue line. That's a drop to about 35,000.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AMD, AES, ADS, AYX, DOX, AEO, AMN, APA, AAPL, ARW, AIZ, BMI, BMRN, BKNG, BBW, BG, CAL, CNP, CENX, CLNE, CMTL, ED, CONN, COP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, DVN, ^DJU, D, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMR, EPAM, EQT, EXC, EZPW, FOE, FE, GPS, GE, GILD, GOOGL, GES, HBI, HLIT, HE, HL, HSII, HOLX, HD, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ITW, IBP, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, IVC, JNJ, KALU, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LH, LEG, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, M, MAN, MRO, MRK, MU, MCO, MS, MYGN, NOV, CNR, JWN, NWPX, OGE, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PNW, POR, QCOM, RJF, RGS, REV, ROST, RES, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SCS, SSYS, TDOC, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, UGI, VFC, WSM, WWW, XEL, XLNX, IEO, IDU, FDN, FXI, IAT, SOXX, EWO, EWK, EWI, EWJ, EWD, EWU, IEV, XLY, XLP, XLV, XRT, XLU, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,664.40    
 Weekly S2  12,930.28  1,265.88   
 Monthly S1  13,040.98  110.69   
 Weekly S1  13,673.92  632.94   
 Weekly Pivot  13,838.28  164.37   
 Daily S2  14,155.50  317.22   
 Low  14,264.65  109.15   
 Daily S1  14,286.53  21.88   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,356.39  69.87   
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,384.74  28.34   
 Daily Pivot  14,395.67  10.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,413.08  17.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,417.55  4.47   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  14,471.22  53.67   
 Open  14,494.47  23.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  14,504.82  10.35   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  14,526.70  21.88   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  14,581.92  55.22   
 Daily R2  14,635.84  53.93   
 Weekly R2  14,746.28  110.44   
 Monthly R1  15,847.80  1,101.51   
 Monthly R2  17,278.04  1,430.25   

Wednesday 2/2/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the CPI turned bullish (vertical green bar on the far right) about a week after the index bottomed. The indicator is at 95.5%, where its top end is 100%.

So there's a small room for improvement but potential for a large drop.

Although I expect a continued move up, I also expect that world affairs (Russia invasion, new and more toxic covid variant) would cause a retrace.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 38% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 44%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 49% on 01/27/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 01/27/2022.

After taking a steep dive, following the market lower, the red and blue lines have recovered (but not returned to the prior level).

The upward move in both lines is bullish, but the trend lower from the left side of the chart to today remains pronounced. It's like the chart is saying long-term bearish, short-term bullish.

Both charts this week are bullish, and that's good because it agrees with my stance on the markets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADTN, AMD, ADS, AEO, AEL, AMN, ANTM, APOG, AAPL, AVNT, BMI, BAX, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, CAL, CNP, CF, CHD, CLNE, CL, CRH, CCRN, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, EIX, FOE, FCX, GPS, GE, GILD, GES, HLIT, HSY, HD, HOV, HURC, IIIN, IPAR, KALU, KBH, KSS, LZB, LOW, M, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MS, MOS, MYGN, NBR, CNR, JWN, NWPX, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PETS, RJF, RGS, RLI, ROK, RES, SLB, SLGN, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SNPS, TECH, TEVA, TKR, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, V, WU, WLK, WSM, WOLF, EWO, EWG, EWI, EWL, EWU, DBA, IEV, ILF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

The index climbed by 1.2% or 406.39 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 312 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 169 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 143 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 237/424 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/93 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 28 January 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+18%)
4. Financials (-1%)
10. Consumer staples (-2%)
11. Utilities (-5%)
9. Industrials (-6%)
5. Health care (-8%)
6. Materials (-8%)
8. Communication services (-9%)
3. Information technology (-9%)
2. Real estate (-10%)
7. Consumer discretionary (-13%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 1/28/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
9. Energy
8. Real estate
11. Utilities
10. Materials

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 1/28. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

7. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+65%)
New. Energy equipment and services (+65%)
1. Real estate management and development (57%)
New. Consumer finance (+44%)
New. Diversified financial services (+38%)
3. Distributors (+36%)
New. Health care providers and services (+34%)
New. Banks (+34%)
6. Construction and engineering (+33%)
New. Insurance (+32%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AMED, AEL, AGO, AVY, BCPC, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, EPAY, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CTSH, COTY, CTS, ^DJI, DUK, EL, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FOE, FCX, FDP, GME, GE, GNW, GS, GPRO, EVRG, HSC, HE, HAYN, HQY, HSY, HURC, INCY, NSP, ITGR, KALU, KBH, K, KBAL, KSS, LHX, LH, LDOS, MNDT, MCHX, MOS, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, OMCL, OMC, PANW, PAYX, PCG, PLXS, PEG, RHI, SMG, SIGI, NOW, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, RIG, SLCA, VLO, VRSN, WAT, WERN, WLK, ITB, IHI, IDU, IYH, IHF, IYZ, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWJ, EWL, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,275.96    
 Weekly S2  32,700.61  1,424.65   
 Monthly S1  33,203.91  503.30   
 Weekly S1  33,916.24  712.33   
 Daily S2  34,273.33  357.09   
 Weekly Pivot  34,365.95  92.63   
 Low  34,496.10  130.15   
 Open  34,691.17  195.07   
 Daily S1  34,702.59  11.42   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,745.18  42.59   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,822.12  76.94   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,899.06  76.94   
 Daily Pivot  34,925.37  26.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  35,078.28  152.91   
 Close  35,131.86  53.58   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  35,148.14  16.28   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,354.63  206.49   
 Daily R2  35,577.41  222.77   
 Weekly R1  35,581.58  4.17   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  36,031.29  449.71   
 Monthly R1  37,006.23  974.94   
 Monthly R2  38,880.60  1,874.37   

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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