Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/28/2022
  Indus: 33,849 -497.57 -1.4%  
  Trans: 14,145 -297.18 -2.1%  
  Utils: 962 -10.18 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,050 -176.86 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 3,964 -62.18 -1.5%  
YTD
-6.8%  
-14.2%  
-1.9%  
-29.4%  
-16.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/28/22
As of 11/28/2022
  Indus: 33,849 -497.57 -1.4%  
  Trans: 14,145 -297.18 -2.1%  
  Utils: 962 -10.18 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,050 -176.86 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 3,964 -62.18 -1.5%  
YTD
-6.8%  
-14.2%  
-1.9%  
-29.4%  
-16.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/28/22

March 2022 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 3/31/22. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin BTC-USD

The Nasdaq composite dropped by -1.2% or -177.37 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 125 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 53 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 72 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 236/416 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 61/129 or 47.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show bitcoin on the daily chart.

The coin has not formed a double bottom at AB. Why? Because the coin has to close above the peak between bottoms A and B. In short, the coin needs to close above line C. That hasn't happened yet as the chart shows.

If the coin does climb to confirmation, then I'd expect the coin to continue higher, perhaps much higher. Eyeballing the chart, that would suggest a rise to $57,000.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AEP, AEL, AMGN, ANIK, ANTM, ASH, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BIIB, BMRN, EPAY, CBT, CALM, CE, CLS, CMCO, CMTL, CRH, CW, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, D, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, WIRE, EVH, FFIV, FDP, HELE, HP, HOLX, INFN, IIIN, INTC, LANC, MHO, MTRX, MRK, MLI, NOV, NTAP, NJR, NXGN, NI, JWN, OXM, PKG, PYPL, PCG, PHM, DGX, RGS, RCKY, RES, SCHW, SRE, SKX, LUV, SWX, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TJX, RIG, VRSN, VMC, WAT, WSO, WSM, WWW, IAI, IAT, EZA, THD, PJP, XLE, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,075.38    
 Monthly S1  13,258.83  1,183.44   
 Weekly S2  13,578.32  319.49   
 Monthly Pivot  13,738.79  160.48   
 Weekly S1  14,010.29  271.50   
 Weekly Pivot  14,114.53  104.23   
 Daily S2  14,252.52  138.00   
 Daily S1  14,347.40  94.87   
 Low  14,383.45  36.05   
 Close  14,442.27  58.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,469.71  27.44   
 Daily Pivot  14,478.32  8.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,496.35  18.03   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,522.99  26.64   
 Weekly R1  14,546.50  23.51   
 Open  14,558.59  12.09   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  14,573.20  14.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  14,609.25  36.05   
 Weekly R2  14,650.74  41.49   
 Daily R2  14,704.12  53.39   
 Monthly R1  14,922.24  218.11   
 Monthly R2  15,402.20  479.97   

Wednesday 3/30/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index has been on a straight-line run up for two weeks or so. Is it time for a retrace?

If you look at the thin blue CPI line near the bottom of the chart, the answer is "no." It's pegged near the top of the scale (bullish).

My guess is the index has more room to climb (to 350 to 360, near prior peaks) and then it'll retrace to about 250 to 270. After that, I'll re-evaluate.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 36% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 40%.
The fewest was 9% on 05/03/2021.
And the most was 54% on 03/07/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 05/07/2021.
And the bottom was 23% on 03/14/2022.

Both the blue and red lines have climbed along with the index. The more sensitive red line made a good gain from a week ago. It moved above the prior peak, which is a good sign.

So if you combine both charts, it looks as if the bull run is intact. I don't see anything which hints of a retrace but maybe that's when it's most dangerous and overdue for one to begin.

Take care.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 252 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AES, ADS, DOX, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMGN, AMN, APH, AON, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AXS, AZTA, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BIIB, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BMY, CDNS, CPB, CE, CX, CENX, CRL, CHS, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CGNX, CL, CMTL, COTY, CRH, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EL, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FOE, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FDP, FRD, IT, GE, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HELE, HP, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, ITW, ILMN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, LAMR, LAWS, LEN, LLY, MAN, MCHX, MAS, MA, MDT, FB, MGEE, MLKN, MCO, MLI, NBR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, JWN, NUS, OGE, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PRFT, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PG, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGA, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, RES, CRM, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, SHW, SKX, LUV, SWX, SXI, SSYS, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TXN, TMO, TJX, RIG, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, VEEV, V, VMC, WMT, WAT, WU, WMB, WSM, WOLF, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, IHI, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, GLD, XRT, SPY, XLK, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/29/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Masco (MAS)

The index climbed by 0.3% or 94.65 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1127 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 621 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 506 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 242/431 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Masco: MAS stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, APD, ADS, AMED, AEL, AMGN, AMN, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BBBY, BIO, BIIB, BA, BRC, BBW, BG, CACI, CDNS, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CMCO, CMTL, ED, GLW, CCRN, DRQ, EBAY, EIX, EL, RE, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GME, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HBI, HSC, HQY, HSII, HSY, IDA, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, INTU, NVTA, JAZZ, KALU, K, KMT, KSS, LZB, LRCX, RAMP, MTSI, MAN, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, ^IXIC, NFLX, NJR, NEU, NKE, NI, NWPX, PANW, PDCO, PRFT, PPL, PINC, PG, PHM, KWR, RL, RMBS, RJF, RNG, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SKX, SO, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TDC, UGI, UPS, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WOLF, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, IHI, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, ICF, IGV, SOXX, EWO, ECH, EIS, EWY, EWT, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLY, XRT, XLK, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,387.02    
 Monthly S1  33,171.45  1,784.44   
 Monthly Pivot  34,057.08  885.63   
 Weekly S2  34,145.91  88.83   
 Daily S2  34,416.32  270.41   
 Weekly S1  34,550.90  134.58   
 Low  34,552.23  1.33   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  34,686.10  133.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,707.21  21.11   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  34,746.80  39.59   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,755.08  8.28   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,802.95  47.88   
 Daily Pivot  34,822.02  19.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  34,833.03  11.02   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,955.89  122.86   
 High  34,957.93  2.04   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,091.80  133.88   
 Weekly R1  35,151.79  59.98   
 Daily R2  35,227.71  75.93   
 Weekly R2  35,347.69  119.98   
 Monthly R1  35,841.51  493.82   
 Monthly R2  36,727.14  885.63   

Monday 3/28/22. Market Monday: Bull Market in the Dow Utilities

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Yes, the labeling doesn't make a lot of sense, but I show the Dow utilities chart on the daily scale.

At AFGB is what the Elliott wavers call a corrective phase or an ABC correction. In my world, it's a measured move down. What's important about the pattern is that leg GB nearly matches the length of AF. I didn't measure it in this case, but they look darn close.

At BCDE, it's the reverse, a measured move up. The measure is the same: the second leg (DE) should nearly (but rarely) match the length of the first leg (BC).

What does that means for the coming week?

If the pattern follows the prediction, the utilities should continue higher.

With interest rates rising, why would debt-heavy utilities rise? Answer: I think it's a flight to safety. People can collect a decent dividend from holding shares even as the market drops. That buying has pushed prices up and the utility average has responded. As of yesterday (Thursday), the Dow utilities is the only average in positive territory for the year.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 201.94 points.
Tuesday: Up 254.47 points.
Wednesday: Down 448.96 points.
Thursday: Up 349.44 points.
Friday: Up 153.3 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 106.31 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 275.46 points or 2.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 79.94 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.7% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     8.0% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     12.9% up from the low of 12,555.35 on 03/14/2022.
S&P 500
     5.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     10.4% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,501  34,681  34,812  34,992  35,123 
Weekly  34,114  34,488  34,715  35,089  35,316 
Monthly  31,355  33,108  34,026  35,778  36,696 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,485  4,514  4,530  4,559  4,575 
Weekly  4,383  4,463  4,504  4,585  4,626 
Monthly  3,970  4,256  4,401  4,688  4,833 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,925  14,047  14,133  14,255  14,341 
Weekly  13,487  13,828  14,024  14,365  14,560 
Monthly  11,984  13,077  13,648  14,740  15,311 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AMD, AES, APD, ALRM, ALK, ADS, AYX, AEO, AMN, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BIO, BIIB, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CRL, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CLX, CNO, ED, COP, CLR, GLW, CCRN, CTS, DDS, ^DJU, DRQ, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EOG, EQT, EL, RE, EVH, XOM, FICO, FE, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HSII, HP, HSY, HON, DHI, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, NVTA, KALU, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MU, MSFT, MCO, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NKE, NI, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PETS, PPL, PG, PHM, KWR, RL, RNG, ROST, RES, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SO, SWX, SWN, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TEVA, TOL, TSCO, RIG, UGI, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWZ, EWC, EIS, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWT, QLD, IBB, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XRT, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)7. Metals and Mining (Div.)
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Food Processing9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Electric Utility (West)10. Retail Store
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Homebuilding
51. Computer Software and Svcs51. Financial Services
52. Financial Services52. Biotechnology
53. Biotechnology53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Medical Supplies54. Computers and Peripherals
55. E-Commerce55. Medical Supplies
56. Retail (Special Lines)56. Short ETFs
57. Homebuilding57. E-Commerce
58. Healthcare Information58. Healthcare Information
59. Short ETFs59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/25/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AMD, APD, ALKS, ADS, AMED, AMN, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BA, BRC, BBW, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CE, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CTXS, CLF, GLW, CCRN, CSGS, DRQ, EBAY, EIX, EL, RE, FICO, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HSII, HP, HNI, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, INTU, NVTA, KALU, K, KMT, KMB, KSS, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, RAMP, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MTRX, MU, MSFT, MCO, MOS, ^IXIC, NFLX, NEU, NXGN, NKE, OUT, OXM, PANW, PPL, PINC, PG, PHM, KWR, RL, RNG, ROST, SAIA, SLB, SMG, NOW, SHW, SKX, SO, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TMO, UGI, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WSO, WEX, WSM, WOLF, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EIS, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWT, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XHB, XRT, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTNFalling wedge      02/24/202203/24/2022Telecom. Equipment
APDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/08/202203/15/2022Chemical (Diversified)
ALBTriple bottom      02/24/202203/15/2022Chemical (Diversified)
AMWDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/09/202203/21/2022Building Materials
ANTMHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/07/202202/24/2022Medical Services
AAPLPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Computers and Peripherals
ADMThree Rising Valleys      12/01/202102/24/2022Food Processing
AWIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/24/202203/08/2022Building Materials
CALMThree Rising Valleys      12/29/202103/11/2022Food Processing
CEHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/15/2022Chemical (Basic)
CLSHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Electronics
CLFFlag, high and tight      01/24/202203/24/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
DHRHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Precision Instrument
^DJTPennant      03/17/202203/22/2022None
DUKDiamond top      03/08/202203/22/2022Electric Utility (East)
BOOMPipe bottom      02/28/202203/07/2022Metal Fabricating
EMNTriple bottom      03/08/202203/18/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EIXUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Electric Utility (West)
REPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EZPWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/14/2022Financial Services
FFIVDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/26/202203/14/2022Internet
FDXHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Air Transport
FIVNPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FORMTriple bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Semiconductor
FWRDHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
GMEFlag, high and tight      03/14/202203/23/2022Retail (Special Lines)
GOOGLTriple bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Internet
HQYRoof, inverted      02/18/202203/15/2022Healthcare Information
HTLDHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/04/202203/14/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HELERectangle bottom      01/27/202203/23/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
HONV Bottom Extension      02/09/202203/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
IDATriangle, symmetrical      03/09/202203/24/2022Electric Utility (West)
INTCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/24/202203/15/2022Semiconductor
KALUPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
KLICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/07/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LDOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/09/202203/16/2022IT Services
FBDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/08/202203/15/2022E-Commerce
MSPennant      03/18/202203/24/2022Securities Brokerage
MOSFlag, high and tight      01/24/202203/24/2022Chemical (Diversified)
^IXICPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022None
NKEPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Shoe
NVDAHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Semiconductor
ORITriangle, symmetrical      02/16/202203/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
OXMUgly double bottom      01/31/202202/24/2022Apparel
PANWPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
PYPLHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Financial Services
PICOTriple bottom      02/14/202203/15/2022Diversified Co.
PNWRoof, inverted      03/09/202203/24/2022Electric Utility (West)
PORPennant      03/08/202203/24/2022Electric Utility (West)
^GSPCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/14/2022None
SUMPipe bottom      02/28/202203/07/2022Cement and Aggregates
SNPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TECHPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Biotechnology
TFXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/07/202203/21/2022Diversified Co.
TPXHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
TDCPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TEVADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/07/202203/14/2022Drug
TMOHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Precision Instrument
WATTriangle, ascending      02/24/202203/15/2022Precision Instrument
WUTriple bottom      03/01/202203/14/2022Financial Services
WWWPipe bottom      02/28/202203/07/2022Shoe
WDAYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/08/202203/15/2022Computer Software and Svcs
IHIPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Medical Supplies
QTECPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Electronics
MGKPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022None

 

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Thursday 3/24/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.3% or -186.22 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 119 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 49 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.6% on 70 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 58.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 236/416 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 61/128 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a trendline (red line) to see how the index compared to the uptrend. It pierced the trendline at B and hugged it going up to A. From there, it has drifted lower.

After an upward move, you often see price retrace half the upward move. In this case, that's a rise from 12,600 to 14,200 or 1,600 points (about). Half of that would be a drop back to 13,400 (or 14,200 - 1600/2). I show that as the blue line on the chart.

If this were the daily chart, I'd feel more comfortable than this intraday chart. There's a lot more noise on this scale than on the daily charts. But that's the target. It took 6.5 days to to rise that far and price often drops twice as fast as it rises, so look for the index to reach the target in about 3 days (Monday).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 194 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, APD, ALRM, AA, ADS, DOX, AEO, AFG, ABC, AMGN, AMN, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BIO, BIIB, BA, BKNG, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CLNE, CL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CRH, CCRN, CW, DVN, ^DJI, DRQ, EBAY, EOG, EL, RE, EXPD, XOM, FOE, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FDP, GME, IT, GD, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, HSII, HNI, HOV, HURC, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KMT, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LEN, LLY, RAMP, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NEU, NKE, PANW, PATK, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PINC, PG, KWR, RL, RNG, ROG, ROST, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SRE, NOW, SHW, SKX, SXI, SRDX, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TDC, TJX, TOL, RIG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WOLF, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, IGE, ECH, EIS, EWY, EWT, THD, QLD, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLE, XHB, XRT, XLK, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,938.85    
 Weekly S2  12,115.15  176.30   
 Monthly S1  12,930.72  815.58   
 Weekly S1  13,018.87  88.15   
 Weekly Pivot  13,459.08  440.20   
 Monthly Pivot  13,547.23  88.15   
 Daily S2  13,768.31  221.08   
 Daily S1  13,845.45  77.15   
 Low  13,921.65  76.20   
 Close  13,922.60  0.95   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  13,990.35  67.75   
 Daily Pivot  13,998.80  8.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,009.70  10.90   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,036.89  27.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,064.09  27.20   
 Daily R1  14,075.94  11.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  14,152.14  76.20   
 Daily R2  14,229.29  77.15   
 Weekly R1  14,362.80  133.52   
 Monthly R1  14,539.10  176.30   
 Weekly R2  14,803.01  263.90   
 Monthly R2  15,155.61  352.60   

Wednesday 3/23/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has been bullish for more than a week now. That's shown in the chart by the vertical green line on the far right of the chart.

The indicator line, which is the blue one near the bottom of the chart, has ticked up and is near the top of the scale for this indicator.

In short, the chart is bullish and I don't see any indications of the upward run ending. However, that means we're overdue for a retrace.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 50%.
The fewest was 9% on 05/03/2021.
And the most was 54% on 03/07/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 8% on 05/07/2021.
And the bottom was 23% on 03/14/2022.

The red and blue lines have turned bullish from a week ago. The straight-line run up that we saw in the prior chart reflects here by a sharp move up.

So this chart is bullish and the prior chart is bullish, so I remain bullish, too.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 219 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, ADBE, AMD, AFL, APD, ALKS, ADS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AFG, AIG, ABC, AMN, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AIZ, ADSK, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BAX, BBBY, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BA, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CLR, GLW, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CW, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EBAY, EPAM, EL, RE, FDX, FOE, FISV, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FDP, GME, GIS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, HSII, HNI, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IPAR, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LEN, LLY, RAMP, MTSI, MAN, FB, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MLI, NBR, CNR, NFLX, NEU, NXGN, NKE, JWN, PKG, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PICO, PG, PRU, KWR, RL, RMBS, RGS, RNG, ROG, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SMG, NOW, SHW, SKX, SWX, SXI, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TDC, TOL, TREX, UGI, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WEX, WSM, WOLF, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHI, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLF, XHB, XRT, XLK, UNG, SMH, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/22/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.6% or -201.94 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 684 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 353 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 331 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 241/430 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eli Lilly: LLY stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADTN, APD, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AFG, ANIK, APA, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, BZH, BBY, BBW, CAL, CX, CENX, CF, CVX, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CTSH, COP, CLR, CRH, CCK, CSGS, DHR, DVN, DFS, ^DJU, BOOM, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, XOM, FDS, FWRD, FRD, GNW, GOOGL, HAYN, HL, HELE, HP, HOV, HURC, NSP, IPI, IVC, KBH, KELYA, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LNC, LMT, LOW, MHO, MRO, MLKN, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NVDA, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PCG, PICO, POR, RLI, ROST, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPX, TMO, TJX, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UPS, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WRB, WEX, WMB, WSM, WWW, IYM, IYE, IEO, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, IEV, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,182.66    
 Weekly S2  32,038.41  855.75   
 Monthly S1  32,867.82  829.41   
 Weekly S1  33,295.70  427.88   
 Monthly Pivot  33,957.81  662.11   
 Weekly Pivot  34,075.45  117.64   
 Daily S2  34,101.22  25.77   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  34,327.11  225.88   
 Low  34,341.81  14.70   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,520.00  178.19   
 Close  34,552.99  32.99   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,567.69  14.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,575.05  7.36   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,630.09  55.04   
 Open  34,669.85  39.76   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  34,793.58  123.73   
 High  34,808.28  14.70   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  35,034.16  225.88   
 Weekly R1  35,332.74  298.57   
 Monthly R1  35,642.97  310.23   
 Weekly R2  36,112.49  469.52   
 Monthly R2  36,732.96  620.47   

Monday 3/21/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

A blue trendline connecting the peaks (you connect peaks when it slopes downward) shows that the trend changed from down to up (when the index closed above the blue trendline). The uptrend has been moving higher for about a week but my expectation is that it'll retrace about half the move up when it does reverse. That would be typical. So at this stage, you might see it drop to line C.

Line C is the confirmation price where potential double bottom AB turns into a real and valid chart pattern. As the chart shows, the index made a strong push higher after confirmation.

What does all of this mean? I've already given the answer, but I expect the index to retrace this week. If we get a reversal on Monday, then look for a drop to C (it may take a few days to get there).

If the index coasts higher, then expect a drop to stop above C (that is, half the distance from B to where it tops out).


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 1.05 points.
Tuesday: Up 599.1 points.
Wednesday: Up 518.76 points.
Thursday: Up 417.66 points.
Friday: Up 274.17 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1810.74 points or 5.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 1050.03 points or 8.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 258.81 points or 6.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.9% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     7.7% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     12.4% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     10.7% up from the low of 12,555.35 on 03/14/2022.
S&P 500
     7.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     8.5% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,055  34,405  34,630  34,980  35,205 
Weekly  32,106  33,430  34,143  35,467  36,180 
Monthly  31,250  33,002  34,025  35,778  36,800 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,365  4,414  4,440  4,489  4,515 
Weekly  4,060  4,261  4,363  4,565  4,667 
Monthly  3,981  4,222  4,356  4,597  4,731 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,403  13,648  13,774  14,019  14,145 
Weekly  12,106  13,000  13,449  14,344  14,793 
Monthly  11,929  12,912  13,538  14,520  15,146 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AA, APOG, AWI, BBY, BMRN, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CENX, CF, CINF, CSCO, CNA, CTSH, GLW, COTY, CRH, CCK, CSGS, CW, DHR, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, FDS, FICO, FOE, FISV, FWRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GFF, HELE, HURC, INCY, NSP, IBKR, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LEG, LMT, MANH, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MLI, MYGN, NEE, NOC, NWPX, ASGN, OMI, PAYX, PRFT, PCG, PICO, RGS, REV, RLI, ^GSPC, SCHW, SEIC, SO, SR, SCS, SUM, TPX, TXT, TMO, UPS, VC, WAT, WMB, WWW, XEL, IYE, ITB, IYH, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWU, PBE, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLF, XHB, XLB, XRT, XLU, VHT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Natural Gas (Distributor)6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Food Processing
10. Retail Store10. Electric Utility (West)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Homebuilding50. Precision Instrument
51. Financial Services51. Apparel
52. Biotechnology52. Biotechnology
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Computers and Peripherals54. Financial Services
55. Medical Supplies55. Computers and Peripherals
56. Short ETFs56. Medical Supplies
57. E-Commerce57. Healthcare Information
58. Healthcare Information58. E-Commerce
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/18/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 116 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, APD, AA, ALKS, ALL, AYX, ABC, ADM, AIZ, ADP, BLL, BAX, BBY, CALM, CENX, CINF, CSCO, CNA, CLR, COST, CRH, CTS, CW, DHR, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, EVH, FOE, FMC, FWRD, FCX, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HOLX, HD, HURC, NSP, IPI, KELYA, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LOW, MAS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NOC, OXY, ASGN, OMI, PAYX, PCG, PICO, PHM, RGS, REV, SLB, SEE, SIGI, SHW, SO, SUM, TGT, TPX, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UPS, WAT, WU, WMB, WWW, WDAY, IEZ, IDU, BOTZ, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLP, XLB, XRT, UNG, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYIUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
ATSGTriangle, ascending      03/01/202203/17/2022Air Transport
AKAMUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/09/2022E-Commerce
ALLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/03/202202/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMZNHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Internet
AFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202102/24/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
APOGTriple bottom      01/28/202202/24/2022Building Materials
ARCBHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202203/14/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AGOThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/24/2022Insurance (Life)
ADPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022IT Services
CENXPipe top      02/28/202203/07/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNAHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CGNXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/28/202202/24/2022Precision Instrument
CMTLDead-cat bounce      03/11/202203/11/2022Telecom. Equipment
CRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202202/24/2022Diversified Co.
CROXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/14/2022Shoe
DHRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/08/2022Precision Instrument
DVNPipe top      02/28/202203/07/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
DOVBroadening top      10/19/202102/04/2022Machinery
WIREDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/17/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
EOGDiamond top      03/01/202203/17/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
EXPDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/07/202203/14/2022Air Transport
FDSUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/10/2022Information Services
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/202203/17/2022Building Materials
HLITDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/14/2022Telecom. Equipment
HOLXPipe top      01/31/202202/07/2022Medical Supplies
IEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/08/2022Machinery
ILMNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/24/202203/15/2022Biotechnology
NSPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/23/202203/08/2022Human Resources
JNJDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/30/202102/24/2022Medical Supplies
KFRCPipe top      02/22/202202/28/2022Human Resources
KLICHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LEGTriangle, symmetrical      02/24/202203/17/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LOWUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/10/2022Retail Building Supply
MCHXUgly double bottom      02/22/202203/08/2022Advertising
MLIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/01/202203/14/2022Metal Fabricating
ASGNHorn bottom      02/22/202203/07/2022Human Resources
OMIUgly double bottom      02/22/202203/14/2022Medical Supplies
OXMTriangle, ascending      02/04/202203/17/2022Apparel
PKGHead-and-shoulders top      01/31/202202/25/2022Packaging and Container
PETSRising wedge      01/24/202203/04/2022Medical Services
PCGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/08/2022Electric Utility (West)
PICORectangle bottom      10/25/202103/17/2022Diversified Co.
TERDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/14/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TXNTriple bottom      02/14/202203/08/2022Semiconductor
TMODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/08/2022Precision Instrument
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202203/08/2022Air Transport
UNMPipe top      02/07/202202/14/2022Insurance (Diversified)
VMIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/28/202202/24/2022Metal Fabricating
VCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/08/202203/15/2022Electronics
WEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/24/202203/08/2022Information Services
WSMUgly double bottom      02/24/202203/08/2022Retail (Special Lines)

 

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Thursday 3/17/22. Cryptocurrency DOGE-USD

The Nasdaq index climbed by 3.8% or 487.93 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 4 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 2 occasions.
     Average loss was -3.0% on 2 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 235/415 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 61/128 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of doge-usd on the dail scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE-USD on the daily scale.

Not much has happened since the last time I looked at DOGE.

At AB, there's an unconfirmed double bottom. That's two bottoms near the same price. (I don't show a scale because it's less than $1 and my chart program doesn't report it anyway).

The double bottom will confirm as a valid chart pattern when the currency closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. I show that as the horizontal red line, C.

As the chart shows, confirmation hasn't happened yet, so all we have are squiggles on the price chart.

My guess is that the coin will turn up and you'll get that confirmation. That means price will make a push higher above C. We just have to wait and see if confirmation occurs.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ATSG, AA, ALL, AYX, DOX, AFG, ADM, ARW, AGO, BBY, BIG, BMRN, BOOT, BRC, BMY, CPB, CX, CENX, CF, CHD, CLX, CNA, CMTL, CLR, CRH, CCK, CTS, CW, DHR, DVN, ^DJT, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EPAM, XOM, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GIS, HSY, HUBG, HURC, NSP, IPG, NVTA, KELYA, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LEG, LDOS, MHO, MLM, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, NWPX, OGE, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PGR, RMBS, RGS, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SEIC, SWX, SUM, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TMO, RIG, UPS, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, V, VC, WRB, WAT, WMB, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, IEZ, FXL, FXI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, DBA, PBE, PXJ, IEV, XLE, XLF, XLB, XAR, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,589.65    
 Weekly S2  12,470.10  880.45   
 Monthly S1  12,513.10  43.00   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Daily S2  12,841.70  328.60   
 Weekly S1  12,953.33  111.62   
 Low  12,992.20  38.87   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  13,119.36  127.16   
 Daily S1  13,139.13  19.77   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  13,153.30  14.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,163.31  10.00   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,216.16  52.85   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,269.01  52.85   
 Daily Pivot  13,289.62  20.61   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  13,436.55  146.93   
 High  13,440.12  3.57   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  13,511.33  71.21   
 Daily R1  13,587.05  75.72   
 Weekly R1  13,636.53  49.48   
 Daily R2  13,737.54  101.02   
 Weekly R2  13,836.50  98.96   
 Monthly R1  14,434.78  598.28   
 Monthly R2  15,433.01  998.23   

Wednesday 3/16/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Today's (Tuesday's) big rise of almost 600 points in the Dow industrials meant a switch from bearish to bullish in the indicator. You can see that reflected on the chart as the vertical green bar on the far right.

The indicator is bullish with 90.5% reading, where 100% is the max. Of course, volatility could erase the bullish signal easily enough by a steep drop in the markets. Signals can change for up to a week.

But it looks good. I'm thinking that the markets will be quiet tomorrow morning until the Fed announces their decision to raise rates by 1/4 point. Then the market will soar. That's a guess, but the market has been expecting a rate hike for a long time.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 53%.
The fewest was 9% on 03/17/2021.
And the most was 54% on 03/07/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 8% on 05/07/2021.
And the bottom was 23% on 03/14/2022.

Both lines show modest improvement from a week ago, but it's not that evident from the chart. Rather, I'm looking at the above numbers.

Like I've complained about for a few months now, the trend of the red and blue lines is downward throughout the entire chart. That is long-term divergence with the upward trend (until this year) in the index.

I think we'll be hitting bottom soon. Russia is running out of steam in their war. Ukraine is being shelled to death. Covid is coming back for another run at killing people. You'll see that in a few months, I think. Interest rates are rising. Inflation remains a stubborn problem. Hmm. Most of that isn't good news, and yet I remain bullish.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, ALB, AA, AYX, DOX, ABC, APH, AZTA, BBY, BIG, BAH, BG, CE, CENX, CVX, CHS, CSCO, CNA, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CW, DHR, DVN, D, BOOM, EXP, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FIS, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GD, GE, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HTLD, HSII, HURC, NSP, ITGR, IPI, IVC, KELYA, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LDOS, LXU, MHO, MRK, MYGN, NBR, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NOC, ASGN, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PCG, PICO, RMBS, RGS, SAIA, SLB, SAIC, SCCO, SCS, SUM, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TMO, UPS, VRTX, WERN, WMB, WWW, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IGE, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWP, EWD, PPA, PXJ, IEV, IXC, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, XAR, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/15/22. Slider Trading Quiz! KB Home (KBH)

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1345 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 722 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 623 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 240/429 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring KB Home: KBH stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AES, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, AMWD, APH, AAPL, ATO, AZTA, BZH, BIG, BG, CACI, CLS, CENX, CLNE, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CMI, D, DTE, EMR, WIRE, EL, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GS, GOOGL, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HURC, IDXX, IBP, IIIN, IPI, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, LNC, LXU, MTRN, MU, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NKE, NWPX, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PRFT, PNW, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RGS, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, SWX, SR, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TSCO, UNM, VMI, WMT, WAT, IHI, FXI, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, PPA, IEV, ILF, XLY, XLF, XAR, XLK, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,129.08    
 Monthly S1  31,537.16  1,408.08   
 Weekly S2  32,033.55  496.39   
 Daily S2  32,475.57  442.01   
 Weekly S1  32,489.40  13.83   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  32,710.40  221.01   
 Low  32,818.16  107.76   
 Close  32,945.24  127.08   
 Open  33,000.37  55.13   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  33,034.57  34.20   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,038.74  4.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  33,053.00  14.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,106.88  53.88   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,175.01  68.14   
 Daily R1  33,287.83  112.82   
 High  33,395.59  107.76   
 Weekly R1  33,490.42  94.83   
 Daily R2  33,630.43  140.01   
 Monthly Pivot  33,680.72  50.29   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  34,035.59  354.88   
 Monthly R1  35,088.80  1,053.21   
 Monthly R2  37,232.36  2,143.56   

Monday 3/14/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

At AB, there's a pretty double top chart pattern. It confirmed as a valid pattern when the index closed below the low between the two peaks. That happened at line B.

At C, the index pulled back to the breakout price of the double top.

After that, the index dropped and that's typical for pullbacks.

What happens next? I was hoping you wouldn't ask me that because no one knows. I can only guess.

I keep hoping for a sharp recovery but as the Ukraine-Russia war continues, there's going to be pressure on the markets. I suspect there's a fear that the US will get directly involved and that might lead to world war 3. I can see that kind of involvement when Putin begins using chemical weapons. I expect that to happen in the next two weeks and the markets won't be thrilled with that development.


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 797.42 points.
Tuesday: Down 184.74 points.
Wednesday: Up 653.61 points.
Thursday: Down 112.18 points.
Friday: Down 229.88 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 670.61 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 469.63 points or 3.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 124.56 points or 2.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     2.1% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     19.0% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     2.0% up from the low of 12,587.88 on 02/24/2022.
S&P 500
     12.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     2.2% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,520  32,732  33,124  33,336  33,728 
Weekly  32,033  32,489  33,034  33,490  34,035 
Monthly  30,129  31,536  33,680  35,088  37,232 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,141  4,173  4,232  4,263  4,322 
Weekly  4,061  4,132  4,230  4,302  4,399 
Monthly  3,827  4,016  4,303  4,492  4,779 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,562  12,703  12,971  13,112  13,380 
Weekly  12,273  12,558  12,956  13,241  13,639 
Monthly  11,392  12,118  13,314  14,040  15,235 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 214 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACIW, ADTN, AES, APD, ALRM, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEO, AMWD, APH, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, AIZ, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BECN, BZH, BIG, BAH, BRC, BMY, CDNS, CALM, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, CLNE, CLX, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CROX, CTS, CMI, DHR, XRAY, ^DJI, EIX, EMR, WIRE, RE, EVH, EXPD, FICO, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FDP, GPS, GIS, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, ITW, INCY, IIIN, IPG, NVTA, JKHY, K, KMT, KBAL, KLIC, LDOS, MHO, MTSI, M, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NTGR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PANW, PRFT, PINC, PFG, PHM, QCOM, RGS, REV, RNG, RHI, ROK, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TECH, TFX, TDC, TER, TMO, TOL, TSCO, TRV, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, WRB, WAT, WU, WSM, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHI, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWL, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, QQQ, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XHB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Aerospace/Defense
7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing7. Food Processing
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Food Processing9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Electric Utility (West)10. Electric Utility (West)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Precision Instrument50. Homebuilding
51. Apparel51. Apparel
52. Biotechnology52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Medical Supplies
54. Financial Services54. Financial Services
55. Computers and Peripherals55. Biotechnology
56. Medical Supplies56. Computers and Peripherals
57. Healthcare Information57. E-Commerce
58. E-Commerce58. Healthcare Information
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/11/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AES, ATSG, AEL, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, BMI, BAX, BIG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, CNC, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CLX, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DDS, DUK, EXP, FOE, FIVN, FLS, FDP, GIS, GNW, GILD, EVRG, HSC, HAYN, HUBG, HURC, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, TILE, JKHY, K, KFRC, KBAL, LZB, LXU, MHO, MAN, MLM, MCO, NTGR, NWL, OUT, PATK, PGR, RGS, RNG, ROG, RES, SMTC, SLGN, SO, LUV, SWX, TXN, TJX, TSCO, VMI, VRTX, WWW, IYK, FXI, IYZ, EPP, EZA, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AJRDBroadening bottom      01/25/202203/07/2022Diversified Co.
AESPipe bottom      02/22/202202/28/2022Electric Utility (East)
ATSGPennant      03/03/202203/10/2022Air Transport
AIGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/09/202202/25/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AONRoof, inverted      02/04/202203/10/2022Insurance (Diversified)
ATRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/05/202203/01/2022Packaging and Container
BBBYTriple bottom      01/11/202202/24/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BBWDead-cat bounce      03/10/202203/10/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CPBBroadening bottom      01/26/202203/10/2022Food Processing
CAGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/20/202202/18/2022Food Processing
CLRThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/15/2022Petroleum (Producing)
XRAYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/05/202202/25/2022Medical Supplies
DFSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/13/202202/15/2022Financial Services
EVHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/27/202203/02/2022Healthcare Information
FEPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Electric Utility (East)
FLSPipe bottom      02/22/202202/28/2022Machinery
HAYNPipe bottom      02/22/202202/28/2022Building Materials
HURCTriangle, symmetrical      02/04/202203/10/2022Machinery
IIINBroadening wedge, descending      02/02/202203/07/2022Building Materials
IPIFlag, high and tight      01/24/202203/10/2022Chemical (Diversified)
IVCDead-cat bounce      03/09/202203/09/2022Medical Supplies
KDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/23/202203/07/2022Food Processing
LAMRFalling wedge      12/01/202103/10/2022Advertising
MTRXTriple bottom      12/29/202102/24/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022Electric Utility (East)
OXYFlag, high and tight      01/03/202203/10/2022Petroleum (Producing)
PKEDiamond top      02/28/202203/09/2022Chemical (Specialty)
PTENFlag, high and tight      01/24/202203/08/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SAICTriple bottom      12/20/202102/24/2022IT Services
SEEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/20/202202/18/2022Packaging and Container
TSCOPipe bottom      02/22/202202/28/2022Retail Building Supply
SLCAFlag, high and tight      02/08/202203/08/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VMIPipe bottom      02/22/202202/28/2022Metal Fabricating

 

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Thursday 3/10/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 3.6% or 460 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 11 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.4% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 8 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 72.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 235/415 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The three peaks, 1, 2, and 3, highlight a triple top chart pattern. It confirmed when the index closed below the lowest valley (A) between the three peaks. That happened at B.

The measure rule is the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout price. It's about 2 grid lines tall (from peak 3 to line A). That gives a target of C which the index met and exceeded on the way down.

Since then, the index has made a stair-step climb. I'm hoping the rise will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ADTN, AES, ATSG, ALB, DOX, AEP, AFG, ANIK, BAX, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BBW, CRL, CSCO, CTXS, ED, CAG, CTS, XRAY, ^DJT, D, EMR, EOG, EZPW, FDX, FIS, FLS, GNW, HBI, THG, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HURC, IDA, IEX, ITW, IIIN, IVC, K, LH, MYGN, NJR, NKE, NUS, OXY, ORI, OUT, PNW, RGS, RHI, SMG, SR, SRDX, TPR, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, VMI, WAT, WLK, XEL, IHI, IHE, IDU, IYH, EZA, PHO, ILF, XLV, XLU, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,529.32    
 Monthly S1  12,392.43  863.12   
 Weekly S2  12,826.76  434.33   
 Daily S2  12,937.46  110.70   
 Low  13,039.79  102.33   
 Weekly S1  13,041.16  1.37   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  13,096.51  55.35   
 Open  13,113.70  17.19   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,139.63  25.93   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,170.47  30.84   
 Daily Pivot  13,198.83  28.36   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,201.32  2.48   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,255.55  54.23   
 High  13,301.16  45.61   
 Daily R1  13,357.88  56.72   
 Weekly Pivot  13,439.37  81.50   
 Monthly Pivot  13,451.00  11.62   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  13,460.20  9.21   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  13,653.77  193.56   
 Weekly R2  14,051.98  398.22   
 Monthly R1  14,314.11  262.13   
 Monthly R2  15,372.68  1,058.56   

Wednesday 3/9/22. A Look At Indicators: Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The news is bearish. I thought we'd see a sharp rise, a big push higher, but noooo! The markets don't listen to me. They keep tumbling.

The CPI is bearish and shown by the vertical red line on the far right of the chart and the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. The indicator has a value of 21.7% (today, Tuesday) which is bearish.

Today the indicator made a slight turn up, but we can only wait and see if that move is permanent.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 53% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 48%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 54% on 03/07/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 23% on 03/08/2022.

Both the red and blue lines have suffered from a week ago. No surprise there because the market has dropped, too, sucking down most stocks.

The two charts this week are firmly bearish. Does that mean we're close to the bottom? That's hard to tell. I'd be nibbling now as price drops but I suspect, and perhaps hope, that we'll see a V-shaped bottom. That means a quick move higher.

If oil flows onto the market from Iran, that could push oil prices down and that would lift the market. If the Russians come to their senses and back off, that would also help. I'm not sure either of those will happen anytime soon.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADTN, AJRD, AES, AEP, AXP, AFG, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AIZ, ATO, AXS, AZTA, BLL, BSET, BAX, BIG, BIO, EPAY, CDNS, CVX, CIEN, ED, CAG, CLR, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DHR, D, DRQ, EIX, EMR, EOG, EL, XOM, FFIV, FE, FLS, FMC, FTNT, GD, GE, GGG, GFF, HAYN, HNI, HD, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, IIIN, INTC, IVC, KALU, KBAL, KLAC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, NBR, NFG, NFLX, NTGR, OGE, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PFE, PICO, PNW, RGS, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SEE, SMTC, SLGN, SKX, SR, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TECH, TSCO, TG, SLCA, UGI, VMI, VRTX, WDAY, XEL, IHI, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, SLV, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, EWU, PPA, IEV, IXC, GLD, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/8/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -2.4% or -797.42 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 61 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.6% on 33 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 28 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 240/428 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Jones Apparel Group 1: JNY stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 211 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, ALK, ALKS, AEE, AEP, AXP, AIG, APA, APOG, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, ASH, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BERY, BA, BKNG, CBT, CDNS, CF, CIEN, CNO, ED, COP, CLR, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CCK, DFS, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EOG, EL, RE, XOM, FDX, FOE, FE, FLEX, FMC, GE, GNW, GGG, GFF, HIG, HNI, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IDXX, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IVC, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LNC, RAMP, LMT, M, MNDT, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDC, MU, MCO, NOV, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NI, OGE, OLN, OUT, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PAYX, PRFT, PICO, POR, PFG, PRU, PEG, RL, RJF, REV, ROK, RCKY, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SEE, SMTC, SLGN, SKX, SO, LUV, SR, SXI, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TECH, TXN, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UPS, UNM, VMI, V, VMC, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHI, IEZ, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XLF, GLD, XHB, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,086.46    
 Monthly S1  31,451.92  1,365.46   
 Daily S2  32,294.16  842.24   
 Weekly S2  32,296.64  2.48   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  32,555.77  259.13   
 Weekly S1  32,557.01  1.24   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  32,806.15  249.14   
 Close  32,817.38  11.23   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  33,067.76  250.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,101.66  33.90   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,192.95  91.29   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,284.23  91.29   
 Daily R1  33,329.37  45.14   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  33,368.04  38.67   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  33,579.75  211.71   
 Open  33,579.75  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  33,628.41  48.66   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  33,638.10  9.69   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  33,841.36  203.26   
 Weekly R2  34,439.44  598.08   
 Monthly R1  35,003.56  564.12   
 Monthly R2  37,189.74  2,186.18   

Monday 3/7/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale. Here's how I determine when it's time to buy.

This evening, I was talking to my brother about buying the dip, and how to do that.

A head-and-shoulders top appears on the chart as LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). It looks as if the index closed below the blue neckline at A. When that happened, it was a sell signal.

But notice that the index turned around and has struggled to move higher.

In my terms, the head-and-shoulders busted the downward breakout and that suggests a strong upward move.

The way this might unfold I show as two routes. Route 1 is a climb following red line 1.

Alternatively, the index can drop to form a double bottom. Once that happens, look for a recovery following path 2 to 3.

Please don't assume that the rise to 1 or drop to 2 will be straight-line affairs. But if I had cash to put into the market or if I had an under performing stock (or one I thought would underperform in the coming months/years), I'd be buying the dip. If you're worried about a single stock dropping then buy an ETF like the QQQs (which track the Nasdaq) or a mutual fund to spread the risk.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 166.15 points.
Tuesday: Down 597.65 points.
Wednesday: Up 596.4 points.
Thursday: Down 96.69 points.
Friday: Down 179.86 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 443.95 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 381.18 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 55.78 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     4.2% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     16.0% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     5.8% up from the low of 12,587.88 on 02/24/2022.
S&P 500
     10.2% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     5.2% up from the low of 4,114.65 on 02/24/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,107  33,361  33,508  33,762  33,909 
Weekly  32,562  33,089  33,634  34,160  34,705 
Monthly  30,352  31,984  33,904  35,535  37,456 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,262  4,295  4,319  4,352  4,376 
Weekly  4,204  4,267  4,342  4,404  4,479 
Monthly  3,866  4,097  4,346  4,578  4,827 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,080  13,197  13,342  13,458  13,603 
Weekly  12,846  13,080  13,459  13,692  14,071 
Monthly  11,549  12,431  13,470  14,353  15,392 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 186 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, AES, ALK, ALKS, AEE, AEO, AEP, AXP, AIG, AMGN, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ASH, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CTSH, COP, CLR, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CW, DECK, DFS, EMN, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, XOM, EZPW, FOE, FE, FISV, FLEX, FTNT, GE, GL, HTLD, HSY, HNI, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, IPI, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KLAC, LHX, LAWS, LEN, LNC, RAMP, M, MNDT, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRX, MS, MUR, NFG, NI, OXY, OGE, OLN, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PAYX, PICO, POR, PFG, PRU, PEG, RL, RJF, REV, RLI, SCHW, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SKX, LUV, SSYS, TECH, TFX, TDC, TOL, RIG, TZOO, VEEV, V, WEX, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHI, IEO, QTEC, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, XLE, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Aerospace/Defense6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Food Processing7. Food Processing
8. Metals and Mining (Div.)8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Insurance (Life)
10. Electric Utility (West)10. Advertising
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Homebuilding50. Drug
51. Apparel51. Medical Supplies
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Homebuilding
53. Medical Supplies53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Financial Services54. Short ETFs
55. Biotechnology55. Computers and Peripherals
56. Computers and Peripherals56. Biotechnology
57. E-Commerce57. Healthcare Information
58. Healthcare Information58. E-Commerce
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Shoe
60. Shoe60. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/4/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, APD, ALB, ADS, AMZN, AEO, AEP, ANIK, APA, ATO, ADSK, BSET, BBBY, BBY, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, CBT, CDNS, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CGNX, COTY, CRH, CCRN, DECK, DFS, D, EPAM, EQT, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FOE, FIS, FE, FISV, FTNT, GME, GE, GIS, HSC, HQY, HTLD, HSY, HNI, HOV, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, KFRC, LH, LRCX, LEN, RAMP, LXU, M, MNDT, MANH, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MRK, FB, MCO, MS, ^IXIC, NXGN, NI, JWN, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PICO, PNW, POR, PEG, PHM, RL, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TDC, TOL, RIG, TZOO, VC, WEX, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYC, IHI, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, IGV, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWP, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, XLY, XLE, XAR, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMEDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022Medical Services
AEPPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Electric Utility (Central)
AMNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/24/202202/17/2022Human Resources
APAThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/24/2022Petroleum (Producing)
AIZUgly double bottom      01/24/202202/24/2022Insurance (Diversified)
BSETPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
BECNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022Retail Building Supply
BOOTPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Shoe
BLDRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022Retail Building Supply
BGThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/24/2022Food Processing
CACIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022IT Services
CDNSPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Computer Software and Svcs
CENXFlag, high and tight      01/31/202203/03/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CVXThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
CHDHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/16/202203/02/2022Household Products
CLNEHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/15/202102/24/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
CRHead-and-shoulders top      02/02/202202/16/2022Diversified Co.
CCRNPipe bottom      01/18/202201/24/2022Human Resources
EOGBroadening top      02/04/202203/01/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
EPAMDead-cat bounce      02/28/202202/28/2022IT Services
EQTThree Rising Valleys      01/27/202202/24/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
FTNTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/28/202202/24/2022Computer Software and Svcs
GFFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/04/202202/24/2022Building Materials
HNIPipe top      02/14/202202/22/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
IDXXPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Drug
INTCPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Semiconductor
TILETriple bottom      01/31/202202/24/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
JKHYThree Rising Valleys      12/02/202102/24/2022IT Services
JAZZDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/24/202202/24/2022Biotechnology
LDOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202102/15/2022IT Services
LLYTriple bottom      01/24/202202/24/2022Drug
LXUFlag, high and tight      01/28/202203/03/2022Building Materials
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      02/15/202203/03/2022Advertising
MOSThree Rising Valleys      12/01/202102/23/2022Chemical (Diversified)
NFGTriple bottom      01/25/202202/24/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
OGEPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Electric Utility (Central)
OMCTriangle, symmetrical      02/24/202203/03/2022Advertising
OUTUgly double bottom      01/28/202202/23/2022Advertising
PANWPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Computer Software and Svcs
SREDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/25/202202/24/2022Electric Utility (West)
SWXPipe bottom      10/04/202110/11/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
SRDXUgly double bottom      02/03/202202/24/2022Medical Supplies
TDOCTriangle, symmetrical      01/20/202202/16/2022Healthcare Information
TGTriangle, symmetrical      11/11/202103/02/2022Chemical (Specialty)
WMBThree Rising Valleys      12/20/202102/22/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
WDAYPipe bottom      02/14/202202/22/2022Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 3/3/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.6% or 219.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 89 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 46 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 43 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 235/414 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

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I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

I drew a channel, shown here in red by two down-sloping trendlines. I wanted to see where the coin was in relation to that channel.

The coin bottomed at C and climbed up to A, pushing outside of the channel. The coin retraced and surged to form a second peak, B.

When the index dropped, it formed a double top (AB). After confirmation (meaning after the double top became valid), the coin dropped to D, fulfilling the target for the chart pattern. That target is the height of the double top subtracted from the low between the two peaks.

Now, the coin is rising again amid the world's turbulence. It as reached the price level near A or B. If the coin were to drop below the lowest valley between A and where we are now, it would form a triple top.

Of course, the coin hasn't dropped yet but it looks like it's slowing after hitting resistance from the prior peaks at A and B. I'd expect it to drop in the coming weeks.

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Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, AYI, ADBE, AEP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APA, ATR, ARW, ASH, AVNT, BSET, BIO, BOOT, EPAY, CDNS, CVX, CINF, CLF, CMTL, COP, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CW, DHR, ^DJI, D, DTE, EOG, EPAM, FFIV, FE, FISV, FDP, GPN, GES, THG, HLIT, HAYN, HTLD, HSY, HNI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INTC, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JAZZ, RAMP, L, M, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MLKN, MUR, NBR, NCR, NTAP, NEU, NI, JWN, NWPX, OGE, ORI, OMI, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PICO, RMBS, REV, RCKY, CRM, SMG, SEE, SKX, SWX, SXI, SCS, TPR, TECH, TPX, TKR, RIG, TREX, UNM, VMI, WMB, WWW, WDAY, IHI, IEO, IDU, FXI, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWA, EWC, EWS, EWP, EWU, PXJ, IXC, XLE, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,694.81    
 Weekly S2  12,236.61  541.80   
 Monthly S1  12,723.41  486.81   
 Weekly S1  12,994.31  270.90   
 Weekly Pivot  13,345.59  351.27   
 Daily S2  13,378.19  32.60   
 Low  13,493.91  115.72   
 Daily S1  13,565.10  71.19   
 Open  13,597.53  32.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,609.52  11.99   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  13,616.49  6.97   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,645.23  28.74   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  13,680.83  35.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,680.94  0.11   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,752.02  71.08   
 High  13,796.55  44.53   
 Daily R1  13,867.74  71.19   
 Daily R2  13,983.47  115.72   
 Weekly R1  14,103.29  119.83   
 Weekly R2  14,454.57  351.27   
 Monthly R1  14,645.09  190.53   
 Monthly R2  15,538.17  893.07   

Wednesday 3/2/22. A Look At Indicators

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I released a new version of Patternz (7.34). It fixes two bugs. That's important if you use the Update Form to update your quotes.

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I read a Reuters article about hackers trying to interfere with operations in Russia and Belarus. I'm glad someone is taking cyber action...and having success.

For my part, I've attempted to block bots from Russia, China, and North Korea from accessing this website. You may have seen some weird error messages appear when trying to access the site. That's me trying to rig things. It's especially apparent with translators and blocked images. Sorry about that, but I don't have a fix for it yet. I wanted to paint the border surrounding the site blue over yellow (colors of the Ukraine flag) to show my support, but haven't figured that out yet either. Instead, I show the flag and am proud of the Ukrainian people for defending themselves with such courage.

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Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We snuck in a green (bullish) bar on the chart, but the indicator turned red today. Sigh. It suggests a double bottom is going to form. If that's the case, then look for the second bottom to be a buying opportunity.

Indeed, this war has been a buying opportunity for stocks punished by the market. I still expect to see a strong and fast rebound but what do I know? I am frequently wrong.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 48% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 48%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 52% on 02/23/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 458 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 02/23/2022.

Much to my surprise, both lines show no change from a week ago. I expected the lines to drop. I will remind you of the longer-term downtrend that we see in the chart (from far left to far right, in both the red and blue lines).

The prior chart is very short-term bearish and this one is neutral but tending toward bearish. So I expect more of a bumpy ride ahead even as I expect a fast upward recovery (move).

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Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACIW, ADBE, AFL, ALRM, ADS, AMED, AEE, AEP, AXP, AIG, ANIK, APA, ATR, AWI, AGO, ATO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BECN, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, CDNS, CAL, CE, CLS, CENX, CVX, CTXS, CLF, CNO, COP, CLR, CROX, CCRN, DHR, D, BOOM, EMN, EOG, EPAM, EQT, EZPW, FOE, FE, FISV, FLEX, IT, GPRO, GGG, HE, HL, HSY, HNI, HOV, HURC, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IBP, INTC, NVTA, JKHY, LHX, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, M, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MOS, MLI, MUR, NFG, NOV, NJR, NI, NOC, NUS, OGE, OLN, OMI, PANW, PYPL, POR, PPG, PHM, CRM, SLB, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TECH, TJX, RIG, TZOO, UNM, VC, WSO, WLK, WEX, WMB, WDAY, IYM, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, QTEC, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWS, EWP, EWU, PXJ, IXC, MXI, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

The Dow index dropped by -0.5% or -166.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 782 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 394 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 388 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 240/427 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 45/94 or 47.9% of the time.

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Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 28 January 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+39%)
10. Real estate (19%)
3. Consumer staples (18%)
2. Financials (17%)
6. Health care (14%)
9. Information technology (14%)
4. Utilities (13%)
7. Materials (11%)
5. Industrials (6%)
11. Consumer discretionary (4%)
8. Communication services (-2%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 2/25/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Real estate
11. Materials
10. Utilities

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 2/25. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+39%)
7. Health care providers and services (+36%)
New. Metals and mining (34%)
New. Health care technology (33%)
2. Energy equipment and services (+32%)
New. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (31%)
4. Consumer finance (+29%)
5. Diversified financial services (+28%)
9. Construction and engineering (+28%)
3. Real estate management and development (28%)

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Here's a symbol list of 61 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AYX, AEE, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BG, COP, CTS, DECK, DVN, EPAM, EVH, FICO, FIVN, FRD, GD, GILD, HQY, HURC, INFN, IPI, LHX, LMT, LXU, MRTN, MOS, NEU, NXGN, NOC, NUS, OXY, OMI, PICO, PPG, PHM, RHI, ROG, SRE, TPR, TDOC, RIG, TZOO, UNM, WEX, WMB, WWW, IYE, IEO, IGE, EWH, PPA, PEJ, XAR, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,444.87    
 Weekly S2  31,597.23  1,152.36   
 Monthly S1  32,168.73  571.51   
 Weekly S1  32,744.91  576.18   
 Daily S2  33,280.86  535.95   
 Weekly Pivot  33,420.33  139.47   
 Low  33,469.31  48.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  33,586.73  117.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,658.14  71.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,716.47  58.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,774.80  58.33   
 Daily Pivot  33,775.18  0.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  33,870.62  95.44   
 Close  33,892.60  21.98   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  33,963.63  71.03   
 Monthly Pivot  33,996.51  32.88   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  34,081.05  84.54   
 Daily R2  34,269.50  188.45   
 Weekly R1  34,568.01  298.51   
 Weekly R2  35,243.43  675.41   
 Monthly R1  35,720.38  476.95   
 Monthly R2  37,548.15  1,827.77   

 

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My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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