Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 08/05/2022
  Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%  
  Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-9.7%  
-11.4%  
 +3.4%  
-19.1%  
-13.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022  
  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/15/22
As of 08/05/2022
  Indus: 32,803 +76.65 +0.2%  
  Trans: 14,601 +122.31 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,014 -7.66 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,658 -63.03 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,145 -6.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-9.7%  
-11.4%  
 +3.4%  
-19.1%  
-13.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/28/2022  
  Up arrow33,300 or 31,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow15,200 or 13,400 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow1,040 or 975 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow12,900 or 11,300 by 08/15/2022
  Up arrow4,200 or 3,900 by 08/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/15/22

December 2021 Headlines

Archives


Friday 12/31/21. New Research: Trading Pattern Pairs

I thought today was a market holiday, but it's not.

I've been working on pattern pairs for about 6 months now and most of it is ready for your review. I'm still working on tips to make patterns work better.

The idea behind pattern pairs is to pick a chart pattern type (like double bottoms) to buy and another to sell (like double tops). You buy the upward breakout from a double bottom, hold for a few years, and sell when a double top appears and breaks out downward. Along the way, you give price a chance to rise far enough to overcome those trades which are stopped out for a loss.

Here's the link to the Pattern Pairs page. You can pick whatever pattern you wish to buy and it'll show stats on different patterns to sell.

A link to pattern pairs is also available on the home page.

Summary report: This links reports on the top 10 performing pattern pairs, sorted by various categories.

-- Tom Bulkowski

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Thursday 12/30/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -15.5 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 618 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 345 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 273 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/406 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/126 or 46.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What strikes me about this chart is how long the upward run is. I highlight that with the long red line. On Tuesday, we see a retrace begin which lasts into the start of Wednesday's trading.

This reminds me of Elliott wave. I'm not a waver, but it suggests another motive wave which takes the index higher. If I'm correct, it's already begin with the shorter upward red line shown to illustrate the move.

So I'm looking for the index to continue rising. The day before the Christmas holiday also sees price rise, but only 50.7% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ADBE, AES, AA, ALKS, AMZN, AMED, AON, APA, AWI, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AZTA, BLL, BECN, BZH, BIG, BIIB, BA, BRC, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CHS, CLF, CLX, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, XRAY, DVN, DDS, D, DUK, EBAY, EOG, EL, EXC, FLEX, FLS, GE, GIS, GILD, GOOGL, GGG, GES, HSII, HP, DHI, HURC, ILMN, KBH, KMT, KSS, KLIC, LAWS, LEN, LMT, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MRTN, MU, CNR, NEU, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OLN, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PRFT, PNW, PPL, KWR, ROST, RES, SAIA, SEE, LUV, SWN, SXI, TDC, TEVA, TKR, TOL, RIG, TG, TREX, VLO, VC, VMC, WRB, WLK, WOLF, WDAY, XLNX, IEO, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, EWO, EWJ, EWT, TUR, IEV, XLP, XLV, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,260.64    
 Weekly S2  14,603.47  342.83   
 Monthly S1  15,013.43  409.96   
 Weekly S1  15,184.85  171.42   
 Weekly Pivot  15,441.41  256.57   
 Daily S2  15,574.00  132.59   
 Monthly Pivot  15,612.83  38.83   
 Low  15,649.85  37.02   
 Daily S1  15,670.11  20.26   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,715.54  45.43   
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,735.83  20.29   
 Daily Pivot  15,745.96  10.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,756.12  10.16   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  15,766.22  10.10   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  15,794.92  28.70   
 High  15,821.81  26.89   
 Daily R1  15,842.07  20.26   
 Daily R2  15,917.92  75.85   
 Weekly R1  16,022.79  104.87   
 Weekly R2  16,279.35  256.57   
 Monthly R1  16,365.62  86.27   
 Monthly R2  16,965.02  599.40   

Wednesday 12/29/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. That's bullish. The rapid rise of the index after the green bar has solidified the bullish signal (because signals can change for up to a week).

Of course, such a quick rise means that there's a retrace coming. You can see the blue indicator line has turned horizontal, and looks pegged near the top of its scale (100).

Let's look at the next chart.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 38%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.

This chart shows a similar uptrend, following the move of the prior chart. The red and blue lines went vertical, in concert with the index. Both the red and blue lines have reached the level of a prior peak in their corresponding lines. That suggests overhead resistance.

I highlight this with the blue line. In October, the red line made a second peak stopping at the blue line. Then it retraced for a week to 10 days or so. As we approach the blue line now, I expect the same behavior...a retrace of the recent uptrend. The CPI chart agrees with this assessment.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 179 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ADBE, AES, ALK, AMED, AEE, AEP, AEL, AIG, ABC, AMN, ANTM, APA, ATR, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AZTA, BLL, BECN, BIG, BA, EPAY, BBW, CDNS, CPB, CNP, CENX, CHS, CLF, CLX, CLR, CR, CRH, CCK, DVN, DDS, D, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EOG, EPAM, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FDP, GPS, GE, GPN, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HSII, HP, HOLX, ILMN, IBP, IBKR, JBLU, KSS, LAWS, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MRO, MRTN, NBR, NOV, CNR, NEE, NKE, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PKG, PATK, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PNW, POR, PEG, KWR, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, ROST, SAIA, NOW, SLGN, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TRV, TG, TREX, VLO, VEEV, V, VC, WRB, WLK, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IEO, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, IHF, IGV, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, PXJ, PJP, IEV, MXI, XHB, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/28/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

The index climbed by 1.0% or 351.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 427 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 226 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 201 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/93 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Freeport McMoRan: FCX

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEL, AMN, AON, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BCPC, BKH, CAL, CLS, CNC, CHKP, CVX, COP, CLR, GLW, CRH, DHR, DVN, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EQT, XOM, FLEX, GPS, GILD, GPRO, GFF, HBI, THG, HAYN, HELE, HP, DHI, IBP, IBKR, IVC, JAZZ, KLIC, LXU, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NXGN, NI, NUS, OXY, OGE, PPL, KWR, RES, SMG, NOW, SNPS, TPX, TJX, TOL, UGI, VLO, VMI, WSO, ITA, IYE, IEO, IHE, FTEC, EWO, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PXJ, IEV, IXC, IXN, XLE, XHB, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,316.88    
 Weekly S2  34,280.80  963.92   
 Monthly S1  34,809.63  528.83   
 Weekly S1  35,291.59  481.96   
 Monthly Pivot  35,499.73  208.14   
 Weekly Pivot  35,676.29  176.56   
 Daily S2  35,835.69  159.40   
 Low  35,954.48  118.79   
 Open  35,954.48  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  36,069.04  114.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  36,088.99  19.96   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  36,130.55  41.55   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  36,172.10  41.55   
 Daily Pivot  36,187.82  15.73   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  36,302.38  114.55   
 High  36,306.61  4.23   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  36,421.17  114.56   
 Daily R2  36,539.95  118.79   
 Weekly R1  36,687.08  147.13   
 Monthly R1  36,992.48  305.40   
 Weekly R2  37,071.78  79.30   
 Monthly R2  37,682.58  610.80   

Monday 12/27/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a pic of the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

Pattern AB is a confirmed double top. 'Confirmed' means the index closed below the low between the two peaks (C). That confirmation means the index was going down. How far would it drop wasn't clear. It never is. We can only guess.

The chart shows what happens, though. The index did drop. Indeed, it plunged going into the late September low.

A symmetrical triangle appears at D. An upward breakout meant the index would climb. However, first it had to plow through a throwback. In fact, the upward breakout busted when the index climbed less than 10% and reversed to close below the bottom of the triangle. Then the triangle busted again when it didn't drop far before closing above the top of the triangle.

So that's a double busted triangle. The index made a strong push higher. My question now is how much higher can it go? The answer is unclear. That means your guess is as good as mine. My guess is it's at overhead resistance and is likely to drop.


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 433.28 points.
Tuesday: Up 560.54 points.
Wednesday: Up 261.19 points.
Thursday: Up 196.67 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 585.12 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 483.69 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 105.15 points or 2.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     20.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.4% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
     26.3% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
     29.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,653  35,802  35,931  36,080  36,210 
Weekly  34,164  35,057  35,559  36,453  36,955 
Monthly  33,200  34,575  35,382  36,758  37,565 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,687  4,706  4,723  4,743  4,760 
Weekly  4,456  4,591  4,666  4,801  4,876 
Monthly  4,406  4,566  4,655  4,815  4,904 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,458  15,556  15,627  15,725  15,796 
Weekly  14,566  15,110  15,404  15,948  16,242 
Monthly  14,223  14,938  15,575  16,290  16,927 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 16 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, EPAM, FAST, THG, DHI, KBH, KLIC, MHO, MDC, PHM, TOL, TG, VMI, WSO, ITB, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Semiconductor3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Precision Instrument
5. Precision Instrument5. Semiconductor
6. Cement and Aggregates6. Retail Store
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Homebuilding8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
9. IT Services9. Telecom. Equipment
10. Toiletries/Cosmetics10. Shoe
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Furn/Home Furnishings50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Investment Co. (Foreign)52. Air Transport
53. Biotechnology53. Investment Co. (Foreign)
54. Air Transport54. Biotechnology
55. Healthcare Information55. Healthcare Information
56. Financial Services56. Financial Services
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Apparel
58. Apparel58. Retail (Special Lines)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 12/23/21. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin BTC-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.2% or 180.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 174 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 111 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 63 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/405 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/126 or 46.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the btc-usd (bitcoin).

$ $ $

I show a picture of cryptocurrency bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

Let's start from the top. AB is a double top which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the coin dropped below C (the line connecting the lowest low between peaks A and B).

The coin dropped substantially below C, more than meeting the measure rule target. That is the height (B to C) subtracted from C.

Now, we're seeing the coin bouncing off support. I show that with the blue line. I drew it from the recent low to the left of the chart. It cuts through support at E and is below D. So that support range covers the bottom above D to E.

It suggests support will be strong enough to push the coin upward. So it's bullish.


$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 71 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ATSG, AKAM, AEL, AAPL, ATO, ADP, BZH, BMY, BBW, CALM, CX, CF, CRH, ^DJU, EPAM, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FOE, FE, FISV, GME, GPN, GGG, THG, HLIT, DHI, HOV, INFN, IBP, ISRG, JAZZ, KBH, KLIC, MHO, MDC, CNR, NUS, OGE, PAYX, PNW, PINC, PGR, PHM, RMBS, ROG, SRE, TDOC, TOL, TG, VMI, WSO, XEL, ITB, IHE, IYH, EWA, EWO, EWQ, PXJ, XLY, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,273.89    
 Weekly S2  14,696.42  422.53   
 Monthly S1  14,897.89  201.47   
 Weekly S1  15,109.15  211.26   
 Daily S2  15,227.40  118.24   
 Low  15,303.06  75.66   
 Open  15,319.16  16.10   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  15,373.11  53.95   
 Daily S1  15,374.64  1.54   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,388.21  13.57   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,414.51  26.30   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,440.82  26.30   
 Daily Pivot  15,450.31  9.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,521.89  71.58   
 High  15,525.97  4.08   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  15,555.06  29.09   
 Daily R1  15,597.55  42.49   
 Daily R2  15,673.22  75.66   
 Weekly R1  15,785.84  112.63   
 Weekly R2  16,049.80  263.95   
 Monthly R1  16,179.06  129.26   
 Monthly R2  16,836.23  657.17   

Wednesday 12/22/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Today's rise in the Dow by 560 points flipped the CPI from red three days ago to green today (this is shown on the S&P). If we see the index falter (retrace) tomorrow, we'll probably see the green bar disappear.

As you know, the CPI signals can change for up to a week but like the red bar shown on the far right of the chart (that is, the bar 3 days ago), it's usually stable after three days.

The chart is bullish and it has bounced off a trendline connecting the lows of recent valleys (from October. See blue trendline).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.

The above remarks show that the two lines diverged. The blue line showed improvement from a week ago but not the red one. The red one is the more sensitive of the two and it's the one I like to reference.

To me, the recent dip in the red line looks like it's forming a double bottom. It's an unconfirmed pattern (meaning it's just squiggles on the chart at this point), but it has potential of signaling a bullish move.

The bullish move would come if the red line moves above the highest peak between the two most recent lows.

So this chart looks bullish because we have two bounces in December and could see a recovery. The prior chart is bullish. However, I expect a short retrace followed by a strong push higher to end the year above where we are now.

For me, that puts off tax loss selling of two stocks which are about a day's move away from breakeven. If the markets suffer, I'll dump them and harvest the meager losses for my taxes.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, AEIS, AFL, AA, AEL, AFG, ABC, AAPL, ARCB, AWI, AIZ, BZH, BKNG, BLDR, BG, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CTXS, CNO, BOOM, EXP, EPAM, EL, EXPD, FDS, FAST, FISV, FDP, GD, GNW, GILD, GL, GGG, EVRG, GFF, GES, THG, HLIT, HQY, DHI, HOV, HURC, IBP, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IVC, JKHY, KALU, KBH, KLIC, LZB, LH, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MLM, MA, MDC, MU, MLKN, NOV, CNR, NFLX, NKE, OMCL, OMC, PTEN, PLXS, PPG, PINC, PGR, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RJF, SIGI, SWX, TPR, TDOC, TXT, TKR, TOL, RIG, TG, UPS, UNM, VMI, VMC, WRB, WSO, ITB, DDM, IYZ, ECH, EWP, PPA, ILF, XHB, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/21/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Florida Rock (FRK, version 2)

The index dropped by -1.2% or -433.28 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 272 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 123 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 149 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 44/92 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Florida Rock: FRK 2

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AES, APD, AA, ADS, AMED, AXP, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANTM, AON, APA, APOG, ARCB, ARW, AGO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BERY, BBY, BIIB, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CACI, CLS, CHS, CTXS, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CSGS, CTS, DECK, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, WIRE, EOG, EQT, XOM, FE, FORM, FTNT, FDP, IT, GE, GILD, GL, GPRO, GFF, THG, HTLD, HP, DHI, HUBG, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, ISRG, JNJ, KBH, KMT, KMB, LHX, LAMR, LDOS, MHO, MNDT, FB, MGEE, MLKN, MS, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NTGR, NKE, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PKE, PATK, PFE, PICO, PLXS, POR, PGR, RNG, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIC, SMG, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SUM, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TOL, TZOO, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMI, V, WRB, WERN, WWW, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FTEC, FXI, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, QLD, DBA, PXJ, QQQ, PHO, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XHB, XRT, SPY, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,775.62    
 Monthly S1  33,853.89  1,078.27   
 Daily S2  34,383.31  529.42   
 Weekly S2  34,563.18  179.87   
 Daily S1  34,657.73  94.55   
 Low  34,665.50  7.77   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  34,747.67  82.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,878.13  130.46   
 Close  34,932.16  54.03   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,939.93  7.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,943.81  3.88   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,009.49  65.68   
 Monthly Pivot  35,085.25  75.76   
 Daily R1  35,214.35  129.10   
 High  35,222.12  7.77   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  35,222.12  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  35,468.75  246.63   
 Daily R2  35,496.55  27.80   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  35,653.24  156.69   
 Monthly R1  36,163.52  510.28   
 Weekly R2  36,374.32  210.80   
 Monthly R2  37,394.88  1,020.56   

Monday 12/20/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

I had my main computer processing today's (Friday's) market data and the thing just died.

I turned off my power strip, waited 30 seconds, and then powered it up. The machine started, died, and then rebooted only to appear to halt with a blank screen.

There's an old joke which goes. "Backups? Sure we have backups. Do you want this year's or last year's?"

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I do a machine backup at the start of each month and also weekly ones (usually) when I make substantial changes. Sometimes, I backup individual files when I change them (which can be multiple times daily). The potential data loss didn't bother me. Plus, I have a complete machine waiting to be updated (with recent data) and to step in. I thought of moving the hard drive and letting it rip.

I've had crashes before and I handle them the same way. I open the hood, pull out the memory chips, take an erasure and clean the contacts, and then reinstall them. That has worked in the past. Did it work this time?

Yes, at least so far. Thank goodness. First thing I did was a weekly backup.

$ $ $

I show a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

LS, H, and RS is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. ABC is a potential double top but to confirm it as a valid pattern, the index would have to close below C. That's a long drop which I don't see happening. However, the new covid variant is making me nervous (and I've had 3 covid shots plus a flu shot). Omicron could drive the markets down farther than I expect but I'm not that concerned. We'll recover over time.

So I'm looking for the indices to resume the move upward.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 320.04 points.
Tuesday: Down 106.77 points.
Wednesday: Up 383.25 points.
Thursday: Down 29.79 points.
Friday: Down 532.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 605.55 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 460.92 points or 2.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 91.38 points or 1.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     18.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     6.4% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
     22.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.6% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
     26.2% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,967  35,166  35,483  35,682  35,999 
Weekly  34,708  35,037  35,613  35,942  36,519 
Monthly  32,920  34,143  35,230  36,452  37,539 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,563  4,592  4,629  4,658  4,696 
Weekly  4,519  4,570  4,651  4,702  4,783 
Monthly  4,371  4,496  4,620  4,745  4,869 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,811  14,990  15,140  15,319  15,468 
Weekly  14,579  14,874  15,256  15,551  15,932 
Monthly  14,156  14,663  15,438  15,944  16,719 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADBE, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, AA, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANTM, ATO, AVY, BCPC, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BAH, EPAY, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLX, CNA, ED, GLW, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CMI, ^DJI, EFX, EQT, XOM, FDX, FIVN, FLS, FTNT, FDP, GME, GL, GPRO, GGG, HIG, HTLD, HP, HOLX, HD, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ISRG, NVTA, KMB, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LLY, L, MHO, MNDT, MRTN, FB, MGEE, MUR, NUS, OMC, ASGN, PATK, PICO, PLXS, PGR, PEG, RLI, RCKY, SMG, SHW, SLGN, SWN, SR, SCS, SRDX, TDOC, TRV, TZOO, UPS, VFC, WMT, WDAY, IYE, IEO, FXI, IAT, EWQ, EWM, EZA, EWP, TUR, IBB, PPA, PBE, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Semiconductor
4. Precision Instrument4. Shoe
5. Semiconductor5. Precision Instrument
6. Retail Store6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Retail Store
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. Homebuilding
9. Telecom. Equipment9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Shoe10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Aerospace/Defense
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Furn/Home Furnishings
52. Air Transport52. Food Processing
53. Investment Co. (Foreign)53. Healthcare Information
54. Biotechnology54. Apparel
55. Healthcare Information55. Air Transport
56. Financial Services56. Financial Services
57. Apparel57. Retail (Special Lines)
58. Retail (Special Lines)58. Biotechnology
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/17/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AFL, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALL, AYX, AMED, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ARW, ATO, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BBBY, BIG, BIIB, BA, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BBW, CBT, CALM, CAL, CE, CF, CIEN, CSCO, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, COTY, CR, CRH, CCK, CSGS, DECK, DDS, ^DJT, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EQT, EXC, EZPW, FDX, FORM, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GME, GILD, GL, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HTLD, HELE, HP, HOLX, HD, HOV, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KMB, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, RAMP, L, LXU, MTSI, MNDT, MANH, MRTN, MA, MDT, FB, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NEU, NXGN, NI, JWN, NUS, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PFG, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TXN, TRV, TREX, VFC, VC, WMT, WERN, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, ECH, EWL, EWU, QLD, PPA, PEJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/08/202111/23/2021Medical Supplies
ACNThree Rising Valleys      06/18/202111/26/2021IT Services
ADBEHead-and-shoulders complex top      11/05/202112/13/2021Computer Software and Svcs
AJRDHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/19/202112/13/2021Diversified Co.
AKAMThree Rising Valleys      10/12/202112/02/2021E-Commerce
ALLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/01/202112/09/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AEOHead-and-shoulders top      11/05/202112/07/2021Apparel
ANTMPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Medical Services
AONTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/202112/16/2021Insurance (Diversified)
BCPCPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Chemical (Specialty)
BKHHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/08/202111/30/2021Electric Utility (West)
CEUgly double bottom      12/02/202112/15/2021Chemical (Basic)
CHKPDiamond bottom      11/23/202112/14/2021E-Commerce
CTXSPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Computer Software and Svcs
CNAHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/19/202112/13/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CAGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/22/202112/01/2021Food Processing
CTSScallop, ascending and inverted      10/14/202112/15/2021Electronics
DVNBroadening top      11/08/202112/15/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
EMNThree Rising Valleys      09/20/202112/02/2021Chemical (Diversified)
EQTHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/10/202112/13/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
FASTScallop, ascending and inverted      10/27/202112/01/2021Retail Building Supply
FDPPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Food Processing
GPROScallop, descending      11/18/202112/13/2021Electronics
HSYThree Rising Valleys      09/28/202112/01/2021Food Processing
ILMNPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Biotechnology
IBKRTriangle, symmetrical      11/18/202112/15/2021Securities Brokerage
IPITriangle, descending      11/02/202112/16/2021Chemical (Diversified)
JNJTriple bottom      10/04/202111/30/2021Medical Supplies
KDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/30/202112/09/2021Food Processing
FBPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021E-Commerce
MGEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/17/202111/30/2021Electric Utility (Central)
NXGNPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Healthcare Information
NKEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/05/202111/22/2021Shoe
NOCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/18/202112/01/2021Aerospace/Defense
OMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/03/202111/26/2021Advertising
OUTHead-and-shoulders top      10/08/202112/08/2021Advertising
PPLBroadening top      10/20/202112/06/2021Electric Utility (East)
PINCDiamond bottom      12/06/202112/16/2021Healthcare Information
RLIPipe bottom      11/29/202112/06/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VMIMulti-peaks      02/18/202112/16/2021Metal Fabricating
WMTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/02/202112/09/2021Retail Store

 

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Thursday 12/16/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.2% or 327.94 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 42 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 23 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 19 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/404 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/126 or 46.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a double bottom at AB. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the red line. That line joins the highest peak between the two bottoms.

The height of the pattern, from C to the lower of the two bottoms (B), can give you a target if you add it to C. I show that target with the blue line.

In this case, the index flew threw the target. What does that mean for the markets going forward?

Because we're on the intraday scale (5 min), any predictions made won't last long nor be significant (lots of noise at shorter time scales). My guess is that we'll see resistance to an upward move form tomorrow (Thursday), likely either forcing the index lower or preventing it from soaring. I'd expect a retrace back below 15,400 but probably not dropping below 15,300. So let's call it 15,360.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AES, AA, AMED, AMWD, ANTM, APA, ACGL, ASH, BCPC, BZH, BIIB, BAH, CACI, CX, CENX, CF, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CAG, CONN, CLR, CRH, CTS, XRAY, DVN, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EXC, FICO, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GPRO, GES, HP, HNI, HOLX, HD, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, ISRG, IVC, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MNDT, MDC, MDT, FB, MS, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NCR, NEU, NXGN, NI, OXY, OMCL, OTEX, PDCO, PFE, PGR, RGA, RLI, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SMG, SO, SCCO, SR, TFX, TZOO, UPS, V, WMT, WERN, WDAY, IYC, IYE, IEO, IHE, FXI, IYH, SLV, EWK, EWL, EWU, ILF, GLD, XLV, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,288.45    
 Weekly S2  14,566.64  278.19   
 Daily S2  14,878.33  311.69   
 Monthly S1  14,927.02  48.69   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  15,055.23  128.21   
 Weekly S1  15,066.11  10.88   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,221.95  155.84   
 Open  15,230.71  8.76   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,254.07  23.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,315.50  61.42   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,376.92  61.42   
 Daily Pivot  15,398.86  21.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  15,431.08  32.22   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  15,565.58  134.50   
 Monthly Pivot  15,569.62  4.04   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  15,575.76  6.14   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  15,742.48  166.72   
 Daily R2  15,919.39  176.90   
 Weekly R1  15,930.55  11.16   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  16,208.19  277.64   
 Weekly R2  16,295.52  87.33   
 Monthly R2  16,850.79  555.27   

Wednesday 12/15/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows the indicator turning bearish, which the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart highlights.

Earlier in the year (May through August) the red bars didn't signal much of a decline. After August (Sept, Nov) the index made a big down move after red bars appeared. Will it again crumble because of today's red bar?

I have my doubts. The stories we see in the news are a lot of fear packed upon incidents where we've seen a fast recovery in the past. Because we've been through a covid decline once already, I don't think we'll see it again. Certainly not to the extent that we saw in early 2020.

Besides all of that, the indicator can change for up to a week, so today's bearish signal could be fake.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.

Both the red and blue lines are more bearish today than they were a week ago. I am somewhat hopeful that if you compare the timing of the red line's bottom, in this chart, it happened at the start of December. Directly above that valley the index made a lower low for 2 extra days. In other words, the red (and blue) line(s) signaled a bottom 2 days before the index (suggesting a downturn end and a recovery).

Looking forward, we have a bearish CPI chart and a bearish percent down chart. That would suggest the index is going to drop more in the coming days.

I just don't believe it. I think the index will rise. In fact, I'm looking for a recovery going into the new year.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, APD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AYX, AMED, AEE, ABC, ANTM, APA, ARCB, ACGL, BCPC, BLL, BBBY, BIIB, BA, BLDR, CPB, CF, CRL, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNA, CAG, EIX, EMR, EOG, EQT, FOE, FTNT, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GOOGL, GPRO, HL, HP, HNI, HD, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, IBP, IPI, INTU, ISRG, IVC, KBH, KELYA, LRCX, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MNDT, MRO, MDC, MRK, FB, MUR, MYGN, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NI, OTEX, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PFG, PG, PGR, PHM, DGX, RL, RLI, RCKY, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SRE, NOW, SHW, SWN, SR, SXI, TGT, TXN, TOL, WMT, WU, WDAY, ITA, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, EWU, QLD, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLK, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/14/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Fed Ex (version 4)

The index dropped by -0.9% or -320.04 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 435 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 210 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 225 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/91 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Fed Ex: FDX 4.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AJRD, ALK, ALB, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMN, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ATO, BZH, BBBY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, BLDR, CSCO, CTXS, CNO, GLW, CCRN, CTS, XRAY, DDS, ^DJI, D, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EXC, FE, FISV, FMC, GE, GGG, EVRG, GES, HL, HOLX, HD, HURC, IDA, INCY, INFN, IBP, IPAR, IPG, IPI, INTU, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, KMB, KLIC, LANC, LEN, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MDC, MLKN, MS, NBR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NI, NWPX, OXY, OGE, OMCL, ASGN, PTEN, PLXS, PPG, PEG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGA, RHI, ^GSPC, SLB, SIGI, SHW, SCCO, LUV, SXI, TPX, TER, TKR, TOL, TZOO, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WDAY, XEL, ITB, IHI, IEO, IHE, IDU, FTEC, IAT, IGV, EWO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, PXJ, IEV, XHB, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,849.14    
 Weekly S2  34,073.10  1,223.96   
 Monthly S1  34,250.04  176.95   
 Weekly S1  34,862.02  611.98   
 Daily S2  35,390.40  528.38   
 Monthly Pivot  35,407.89  17.48   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly Pivot  35,422.36  14.47   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  35,520.68  98.32   
 Low  35,609.53  88.86   
 Close  35,650.95  41.42   
 Daily Pivot  35,739.80  88.86   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,743.00  3.20   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,784.23  41.23   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,825.46  41.23   
 Daily R1  35,870.08  44.62   
 Open  35,958.93  88.85   
 High  35,958.93  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  36,089.20  130.27   
 Weekly R1  36,211.29  122.08   
 Weekly R2  36,771.62  560.33   
 Monthly R1  36,808.79  37.18   
 Monthly R2  37,966.64  1,157.84   

Monday 12/13/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

This was a tough chart to draw lines on. The top red line went in just fine because it lines up well with the peaks and we have plenty of trendline touches.

The bottom line I struggled with. Why? Because it didn't really line up well. I drew what's called an internet trendline which slices through price. That's clear at A.

This is not how I like to draw trendlines, but it seems to make sense in this situation.

What does the chart show?

This is an ascending broadening wedge. The two trendlines slope upward and diverge. Price nears or touches the internal trendline several times and has a fake downward breakout at A.

The pause we see now might be just that, a pause, before the uptrend continues. That's what I think will happen. However, it's also possible that we'll see it reverse here and head down toward the bottom trendline. Indeed, you see that situation just before point A. Price neared the bottom trendline, moved up about halfway and then reversed to pierce the trendline at A.

We'll know in the coming weeks which way the composite moves.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 646.95 points.
Tuesday: Up 492.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 35.32 points.
Thursday: Down 0.06 points.
Friday: Up 216.3 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1390.91 points or 4.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 545.13 points or 3.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 173.59 points or 3.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.6% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     20.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.6% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
     26.1% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
     28.6% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,616  35,793  35,888  36,066  36,160 
Weekly  34,180  35,075  35,529  36,425  36,878 
Monthly  32,956  34,463  35,515  37,022  38,073 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,655  4,684  4,699  4,727  4,742 
Weekly  4,482  4,597  4,655  4,770  4,828 
Monthly  4,402  4,557  4,650  4,806  4,899 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,396  15,513  15,595  15,713  15,795 
Weekly  14,588  15,109  15,453  15,974  16,317 
Monthly  14,310  14,970  15,591  16,252  16,872 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AJRD, ALK, DOX, AEO, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AIZ, BCPC, BZH, BIO, BA, BAH, EPAY, BMY, BBW, BG, CPB, CX, CNC, CSCO, CNO, COP, COST, CCK, CMI, XRAY, WIRE, FE, FISV, FMC, GE, GNW, GS, GPRO, GES, HIG, HNI, HON, JBHT, IDA, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JBLU, KLIC, LEG, LLY, LOW, MHO, MLM, MDC, MU, MLKN, NWL, NXGN, NI, OXY, ASGN, PKG, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PNW, PLXS, PPG, DGX, RL, RGS, RGA, ROG, SLB, SCCO, LUV, SWN, TECH, TPX, TMO, TZOO, TG, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WMT, WLK, WMB, IYK, ITB, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IGV, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, XLP, GLD, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Trucking/Transp. Leasing1. Semiconductor
2. Retail Building Supply2. Precision Instrument
3. Semiconductor3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Precision Instrument5. Retail Building Supply
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Retail Store7. Retail Store
8. Homebuilding8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Computers and Peripherals9. Computer Software and Svcs
10. Cement and Aggregates10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Aerospace/Defense50. Investment Co. (Foreign)
51. Furn/Home Furnishings51. Furn/Home Furnishings
52. Food Processing52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Healthcare Information53. Apparel
54. Apparel54. Food Processing
55. Air Transport55. Insurance (Life)
56. Financial Services56. Short ETFs
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Air Transport
58. Biotechnology58. Financial Services
59. Short ETFs59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/10/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AJRD, AFL, APD, ATSG, ALK, AEE, AEL, AIG, AMGN, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, BZH, BIO, BAH, BBW, CLS, CNC, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, DHR, XRAY, DFS, DOV, WIRE, EPAM, EXC, XOM, FE, FISV, FMC, FTNT, FDP, IT, HTLD, HOV, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INCY, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KBH, LEG, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MDC, NXGN, OXY, OMCL, OXM, PKG, PTEN, PETS, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PRU, PHM, RL, RGA, RNG, SLB, NOW, LUV, SWN, TECH, TPX, TEVA, UPS, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, WSM, IYK, ITB, IDU, FTEC, ICF, IHF, IAT, SLV, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, TUR, XLP, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AADouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/12/202111/24/2021Aerospace/Defense
AEPBroadening wedge, descending      11/03/202112/06/2021Electric Utility (Central)
AMATDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/26/202112/06/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AWIUgly double bottom      10/13/202112/01/2021Building Materials
BATriple top      09/29/202111/15/2021Aerospace/Defense
BRCDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/18/202111/26/2021Chemical (Diversified)
CLXDiamond top      11/18/202112/09/2021Household Products
CONNTriangle, descending      08/27/202112/06/2021Retail (Special Lines)
COPThree Falling Peaks      10/25/202111/24/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
CCKTriple top      11/16/202111/26/2021Packaging and Container
XRAYPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Medical Supplies
FISVPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021IT Services
FMCPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Chemical (Basic)
FORMBroadening top      11/10/202112/08/2021Semiconductor
GNWBig M      10/21/202111/02/2021Insurance (Life)
GFFUgly double bottom      11/16/202112/01/2021Building Materials
HSCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/22/202111/29/2021Diversified Co.
HQYDead-cat bounce      12/07/202112/07/2021Healthcare Information
IPARPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
IPGPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Advertising
ISRGHead-and-shoulders top      11/01/202111/17/2021Medical Supplies
KLICTriangle, symmetrical      11/19/202112/06/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MHOPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Homebuilding
MDCPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Homebuilding
MUDiamond top      11/22/202112/09/2021Semiconductor
MSBroadening bottom      11/09/202112/08/2021Securities Brokerage
NCRRectangle bottom      09/23/202112/08/2021IT Services
NWPXDiamond top      11/11/202112/09/2021Building Materials
OGEThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202111/30/2021Electric Utility (Central)
PTENPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PLXSPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Electronics
PORBroadening top      11/04/202112/06/2021Electric Utility (West)
PPGPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Chemical (Diversified)
PEGTriangle, symmetrical      10/26/202112/09/2021Electric Utility (East)
PHMThree Rising Valleys      10/01/202111/30/2021Homebuilding
RESTriple bottom      11/19/202112/02/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TPXPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
TOLThree Rising Valleys      07/19/202111/30/2021Homebuilding
UGIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/20/202111/12/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
VFCPipe bottom      11/22/202111/29/2021Apparel
WLKThree Rising Valleys      07/19/202109/20/2021Chemical (Basic)
ZBRARectangle top      11/08/202112/09/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 12/9/21. Cryptocurrency: DOGE-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.6% or 100.07 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 509 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 316 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 193 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/403 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/126 or 46.8% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the doge-usd.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE-USD.

At AB there's a chart pattern called a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the currency closes below the red line. That line connects the lowest valley between peaks A and B.

A downward breakout occurs at C. It seems hard to envision but the pattern predicts a drop below C as far as the height of AB to C. On this scale, it looks like the currency would go below 0, so you'll want to be conservative in your projections.

What we can say about the double top is that the currency is going down. The chart shows that's already happened (with the spike down at C). What's not clear is how much lower it might go. Indeed, it appears to be pulling back now, but that upward move of the last four days looks anemic. So maybe it'll resume dropping.


$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ALK, AEL, AFG, AIG, ANIK, AXS, BZH, BBW, CPB, CLS, CNC, CHD, CNO, COP, COST, CCK, CW, DHR, XRAY, DOV, WIRE, EPAM, EXC, FICO, FE, FISV, FMC, FDP, FRD, HTLD, HSII, HP, INCY, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, IVC, JBLU, K, KSS, LEG, LOW, MHO, M, MDC, NXGN, NI, OXY, OTEX, OUT, PATK, PTEN, PCG, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PG, PHM, RL, RGA, SLB, SCCO, SWN, TGT, TPX, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WSO, ITB, FTEC, FXI, IAT, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, IEV, ILF, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,362.26    
 Weekly S2  14,615.00  252.75   
 Monthly S1  15,074.62  459.62   
 Weekly S1  15,201.00  126.37   
 Weekly Pivot  15,517.05  316.06   
 Daily S2  15,559.08  42.02   
 Low  15,618.88  59.80   
 Monthly Pivot  15,643.43  24.55   
 Daily S1  15,673.03  29.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,685.26  12.22   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  15,690.65  5.39   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,705.76  15.11   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,726.26  20.50   
 Daily Pivot  15,732.84  6.57   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,786.99  54.15   
 High  15,792.64  5.65   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  15,846.79  54.15   
 Daily R2  15,906.60  59.80   
 Weekly R1  16,103.05  196.45   
 Monthly R1  16,355.79  252.75   
 Weekly R2  16,419.10  63.31   
 Monthly R2  16,924.60  505.49   

Wednesday 12/8/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish as shown by the green vertical bar on the far right of the chart. It shows the indicator turned green yesterday but it could have been today's big move in the indices which caused the indicator to flash green yesterday. Sound weird?

I mention this because a strong move could cause the indicator to change signals for up to a week (meaning we could have had a bullish signal days ago). That 'feature' is like looking in the mirror as you drive down the road and saying, "You should have turned back there," and then being able to make that turn.

In short, this chart is bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 36%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 12/01/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 19% on 12/01/2021.

Both the red and blue lines on this chart show marked improvement from a week ago. I think it's odd that the red line made a lower low less than a week ago even as the index shows a consistent uptrend (starting off the chart to the left), in a rise-retrace pattern. Both the red and blue lines have shown growing weakness in the index (since March, when the two lines peaked).

Regardless, these lines are moving up and that means they are more bullish now than a week ago.

Combined with the bullishness of the prior chart, it seems clear that the uptrend will continue...until it stops. Russia invading Ukraine could be a cause as well as Covid 19 adapting to the vaccines and becoming more lethal. Lots can happen but I remain bullish.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADTN, AJRD, ALK, AEL, AXP, APH, AAPL, AWI, AXS, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CNC, CENX, CHKP, CTXS, CNO, CMCO, COP, COTY, CRH, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DOV, EL, FAST, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FDP, HQY, HL, HSII, HOLX, INCY, NSP, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, JBLU, KBH, K, KLIC, LANC, LEG, LDOS, MHO, MA, MDC, MDT, MRK, MU, MUR, NBR, NXGN, NKE, NI, OXY, OLN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PLXS, PPG, DGX, RL, RGA, RNG, ROK, SLB, SCCO, SWX, SCS, TPR, TPX, TER, TXN, TMO, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, WSO, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IYM, IAI, ITB, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IHF, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, EWU, PXJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, USO, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/7/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.9% or 646.95 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 99 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 43 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 56 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/419 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Fed Ex: FDX 3

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 84 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AES, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AZTA, BLL, EPAY, BRC, CAL, CNC, CRL, CVX, CTXS, CNO, CAG, CLR, COTY, EIX, WIRE, EOG, FICO, FE, FORM, FRD, IT, GD, GIS, GL, THG, HAYN, IBP, IPI, KMB, LXU, M, MCHX, MTRN, MUR, NFG, NTAP, NI, NOC, OGE, OUT, OXM, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, KWR, RMBS, SMTC, SO, SXI, TGT, TPX, TEVA, RIG, VRTX, WEX, WSM, IYK, IEO, ICF, IYF, EWA, EWC, EWH, EWY, EWD, IBB, ROBO, IXC, XLF, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,707.83    
 Weekly S2  33,559.71  851.88   
 Monthly S1  33,967.43  407.72   
 Daily S2  34,349.08  381.65   
 Weekly S1  34,393.37  44.29   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  34,633.43  240.06   
 Open  34,633.43  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  34,788.05  154.63   
 Weekly Pivot  34,840.64  52.59   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,909.74  69.10   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,995.09  85.35   
 Daily Pivot  35,072.40  77.31   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,080.44  8.04   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  35,227.03  146.59   
 Monthly Pivot  35,266.58  39.55   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  35,356.75  90.17   
 Daily R1  35,511.38  154.63   
 Weekly R1  35,674.30  162.93   
 Daily R2  35,795.72  121.42   
 Weekly R2  36,121.57  325.85   
 Monthly R1  36,526.18  404.61   
 Monthly R2  37,825.33  1,299.15   

Monday 12/6/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I drew two red lines following the peaks and valleys, respectively. What do they show?

Notice that both lines slope upward. That indicates a rising price trend. Taken together, the two lines highlight a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge.

Those breakout downward most often (52% of the time). That's about random.

Here's what I expect will happen. At A, the index got near the bottom trendline but didn't quite make it down there. It has made higher lows during the last two days. I expect that uptrend to continue following the green line. We might see a test of the bottom line like the loop it did in September. Or the index can continue up until it touches or nears the top line.


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 236.6 points.
Tuesday: Down 652.22 points.
Wednesday: Down 461.68 points.
Thursday: Up 617.75 points.
Friday: Down 59.71 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 319.26 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 406.19 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 56.19 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.4% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     15.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     7.0% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
     21.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     4.3% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
     23.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,012  34,296  34,549  34,833  35,085 
Weekly  33,344  33,962  34,625  35,243  35,906 
Monthly  32,492  33,536  35,051  36,095  37,610 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,434  4,486  4,547  4,599  4,660 
Weekly  4,391  4,465  4,569  4,643  4,747 
Monthly  4,344  4,441  4,592  4,690  4,841 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,623  14,854  15,162  15,394  15,702 
Weekly  14,381  14,733  15,283  15,635  16,185 
Monthly  14,128  14,607  15,410  15,888  16,691 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AEL, AMWD, AMN, BMI, BZH, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CX, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CHS, COTY, CTS, D, EBAY, WIRE, FFIV, FE, FLEX, FORM, FRD, HAYN, HL, HOV, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JAZZ, LLY, LXU, M, MTRN, MTRX, MU, ^IXIC, NJR, NEU, NXGN, OXM, PANW, PRFT, PETS, KWR, RL, RMBS, REV, RHI, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, SKX, SXI, TECH, TDC, RIG, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WSM, WOLF, IYC, FTEC, QTEC, BOTZ, IAT, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, QLD, IBB, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, XLY, XRT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Retail Store
2. Precision Instrument2. Semiconductor
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Retail Building Supply5. Precision Instrument
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. Retail Store7. Retail Building Supply
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
9. Computer Software and Svcs9. Computers and Peripherals
10. IT Services10. Petroleum (Producing)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Investment Co. (Foreign)50. Furn/Home Furnishings
51. Furn/Home Furnishings51. Retail (Special Lines)
52. Aerospace/Defense52. Investment Co. (Foreign)
53. Apparel53. Aerospace/Defense
54. Food Processing54. Homebuilding
55. Insurance (Life)55. Insurance (Life)
56. Short ETFs56. Apparel
57. Air Transport57. Financial Services
58. Financial Services58. Short ETFs
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Air Transport
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/3/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AEIS, ALRM, ADS, DOX, AIG, AMWD, APA, ATO, BMI, BA, EPAY, BRC, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CF, CRL, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CMTL, CRH, ^DJI, EFX, XOM, FE, FLEX, IT, GD, GGG, HAYN, HL, INFN, IBP, INTU, JKHY, KBAL, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MHO, M, MUR, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, OXY, OXM, PKE, PHM, ROK, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEIC, SKX, SNPS, RIG, VEEV, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WSM, IYE, IEO, FXI, IYZ, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWM, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, IXC, MXI, XLE, GLD, XLV, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021IT Services
ALKPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Air Transport
AEPHead-and-shoulders complex top      10/07/202111/22/2021Electric Utility (Central)
ANTMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/27/202111/15/2021Medical Services
ADMDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/26/202111/15/2021Food Processing
AIZHead-and-shoulders top      10/21/202111/23/2021Insurance (Diversified)
ATODouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/15/202111/23/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
BMIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202111/22/2021Precision Instrument
BIOTriangle, symmetrical      10/29/202112/02/2021Medical Supplies
BLDRCup with handle      05/10/202108/19/2021Retail Building Supply
CBTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/09/202111/22/2021Chemical (Diversified)
CALPipe top      11/15/202111/22/2021Shoe
CPBHead-and-shoulders top      11/04/202111/26/2021Food Processing
CEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/26/202111/10/2021Chemical (Basic)
CNCTriple top      06/16/202107/13/2021Medical Services
CLDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/16/202111/26/2021Household Products
CRHDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/08/202111/24/2021Cement and Aggregates
CSGSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/16/202111/29/2021IT Services
CWHead-and-shoulders top      10/25/202111/22/2021Machinery
DDSDead-cat bounce      11/29/202111/30/2021Retail Store
DFSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/15/202111/24/2021Financial Services
EMNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202111/23/2021Chemical (Diversified)
EBAYPipe top      10/18/202110/25/2021Internet
EXPDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/04/202111/22/2021Air Transport
EZPWBig M      10/11/202111/18/2021Financial Services
FETriple top      11/02/202111/16/2021Electric Utility (East)
FLEXPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021Electronics
FTNTThree Falling Peaks      11/08/202111/30/2021Computer Software and Svcs
FCXPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
GLThree Falling Peaks      11/08/202111/23/2021Insurance (Life)
HAYNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/09/202111/22/2021Building Materials
HSIITriple top      10/26/202111/16/2021Human Resources
HOVPipe bottom      10/04/202110/11/2021Homebuilding
HUBGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/05/202111/16/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTTriple top      10/25/202111/17/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
INCYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/02/202111/23/2021Drug
IBPPipe top      11/15/202111/22/2021Retail Building Supply
JAZZHead-and-shoulders top      10/07/202111/12/2021Biotechnology
JBLUPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Air Transport
LHTriangle, symmetrical      11/09/202112/02/2021Medical Services
LAMRPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Advertising
LLYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/04/202111/19/2021Drug
MPipe top      11/15/202111/22/2021Retail Store
MRTNPipe bottom      09/13/202109/20/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MTRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/08/202111/22/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
MRKPipe top      10/25/202111/01/2021Drug
FBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202111/22/2021E-Commerce
NFLXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/29/202111/17/2021Internet
OTEXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/08/202111/17/2021E-Commerce
OXMPipe top      11/15/202111/22/2021Apparel
PRUDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/26/202111/03/2021Insurance (Life)
SAIADouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/05/202111/17/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SEICTriple top      10/21/202111/16/2021IT Services
TPRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202111/22/2021Apparel
TXTTriple top      11/08/202111/22/2021Diversified Co.
TKRPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021Metal Fabricating
UPSThree Falling Peaks      10/26/202111/23/2021Air Transport
VCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/08/202111/16/2021Electronics
WERNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/28/202111/16/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WLKHead-and-shoulders top      10/25/202111/24/2021Chemical (Basic)
WSMPipe top      11/15/202111/22/2021Retail (Special Lines)
WWWPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Shoe
IYCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/05/202111/22/2021Retail Store
VISDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/08/202111/16/2021Industrial Services
MGKHead-and-shoulders top      11/05/202111/30/2021None

 

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Thursday 12/2/21. Intraday Nasdaq: Down Then Up

The index dropped by -1.8% or -283.64 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 58 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 23 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 35 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 60.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/403 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/125 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The market was trending lower as I show with the two parallel lines. Those lines highlight what's called a channel. In a channel, price moves between two parallel or nearly parallel lines.

Notice that today (Wednesday) the index pierced the channel. That's a worrisome development. I expect you'll see a pullback to the bottom of the channel. I expect that will happen on Thursday and if not, then on Friday of this week.

After that, it's just a guess. But I view this plunge in the indices as a buying opportunity. I think we'll be higher going into the new year.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AFL, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALL, AYX, AIG, ANIK, AON, APA, ATR, AGO, ATO, AVA, BIG, BA, BBW, CACI, CAL, CE, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CRH, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, EZPW, FDS, FE, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FDP, IT, GIS, GFF, THG, HAYN, HL, HSII, HSIC, HON, IBP, IIIN, JBLU, LZB, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRO, MCHX, MDT, MRK, MUR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NKE, OXY, ORI, OMC, OXM, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PICO, RCKY, ROST, CRM, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SLGN, LUV, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPX, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VRSN, VRTX, VC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WSM, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, ICF, IAT, IYF, EWW, EWD, TUR, DBA, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,304.56    
 Monthly S1  14,779.30  474.75   
 Daily S2  14,865.38  86.07   
 Weekly S2  14,884.65  19.27   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  15,059.71  175.06   
 Weekly S1  15,069.35  9.64   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  15,243.93  174.58   
 Close  15,254.05  10.12   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  15,438.27  184.22   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,462.77  24.51   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  15,495.77  32.99   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,530.38  34.61   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,597.98  67.60   
 Daily R1  15,632.60  34.63   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  15,640.79  8.19   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  15,752.27  111.48   
 High  15,816.82  64.55   
 Weekly R1  15,825.49  8.67   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Monthly R1  15,970.51  145.02   
 Daily R2  16,011.16  40.64   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  16,396.93  385.77   
 Monthly R2  16,686.98  290.05   

Monday 12/1/21. 2021 December Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for December, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 30 November 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+45%)
4. Information technology (+39%)
2. Financials (+37%)
3. Real estate (+33%)
8. Consumer discretionary (+28%)
5. Communication services (+24%)
7. Materials (+21%)
9. Health care (+21%)
6. Industrials (+17%)
10. Consumer staples (+10%)
11. Utilities (+6%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 11/29.

1. Information technology (IT)
3. Consumer discretionary
2. Health care
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Real estate
10. Materials
11. Utilities

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 11/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

5. Construction and engineering (+65%)
New. Semiconductors & Semi equipment (+60%)
1. Real estate management and development (60%)
7. Automobiles (+55%)
New. Distributors (+52%)
New. Software (+50%)
3. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+47%)
New. Construction Materials (+47%)
New. Interactive media & Services (+46%)
4. Consumer finance (+44%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, APA, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BMY, CBT, CACI, CAL, CPB, CE, CNC, CENX, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CRH, CCK, CTS, DHR, DDS, EOG, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FDP, IT, GL, GFF, HBI, THG, HIG, HAYN, HL, HSII, HP, HSIC, HON, DHI, HURC, INFN, IBP, TILE, IPI, ISRG, JBLU, K, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, NOV, CNR, NFLX, NTAP, NKE, ORI, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PLXS, POR, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, RGS, RLI, SLB, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SKX, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TKR, RIG, TRV, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WSM, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IDU, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWZ, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, TUR, DBA, PXJ, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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