As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
|
YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/19/2024
Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%
Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%
Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%
Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%
S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%
|
YTD
+0.8%
-5.1%
-0.7%
+1.8%
+4.1%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 1/31/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on Thursday January 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
With the big move up today (Monday 1/31, 400 points in the Dow (1%), 3% move in the Nasdaq), the CPI flipped to green (vertical bar on the far right of the chart).
That move shows promise of a strong recovery.
This is the Dow industrials on the daily chart. The forecast said the Dow would drop for about 2 weeks at the start of January but not drop nearly as far as it did (~3,650 points or 10%). Indeed, the low posted already exceeds the forecast low in July (A, bottom blue line). The forecast close for the year is lower than the year's open, too (blue line at B).
Notice that we peak in early to mid March and drop from there to July. That's a drop of about 4,200 points or over 10%.
This is a chart of the Nasdaq on the daily scale. I show the forecasted closing price for the year compared to the year's open. The forecast says we close about 400 points lower, which isn't bad considering it could be a lot worse.
This is the daily chart for the S&P 500 index. The chart shows we drop 1,200 points to year end. We peak in March and bottom in July, just like we see in the other charts.
The January drop set a new low, about 150 points below the forecast low.
This is the 4-year forecast starting from January 2022, weekly scale.
If this forecast is accurate (and it's already had a miss), we bottom in July 2022 and peak in November 2025. That's a rise of 14,000 points or almost 50% from low to high.
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