Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/13/2024
  Indus: 41,394 +297.01 +0.7%  
  Trans: 15,730 +91.13 +0.6%  
  Utils: 1,054 +11.75 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 17,684 +114.30 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 5,626 +30.26 +0.5%  
YTD
 +9.8%  
-1.1%  
 +19.6%  
 +17.8%  
 +18.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/13/2024  
  Up arrow42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow18,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024
As of 09/13/2024
  Indus: 41,394 +297.01 +0.7%  
  Trans: 15,730 +91.13 +0.6%  
  Utils: 1,054 +11.75 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 17,684 +114.30 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 5,626 +30.26 +0.5%  
YTD
 +9.8%  
-1.1%  
 +19.6%  
 +17.8%  
 +18.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/13/2024  
  Up arrow42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow18,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024

September 2024 Headlines

Archives


Monday 9/16/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

From the left, we see a chart pattern called a double top at FG. After the pattern confirmed as valid (meaning price had to close below the lowest valley between peaks F and G) the index continued lower to H.

The same situation happened at peaks AB, which saw price drop to C.

Peaks DE look to have the same setup. Will we see price tumble?

My gut says no. Why? Because as soon as you recognize a pattern, things change. If you were to try to take advantage of this situation based on the prior two double tops, price wouldn't cooperate. It'll rise instead. Maybe not. Maybe it will drop, but it's not a bet I'm willing to take.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 484.18 points.
Tuesday: Down 92.63 points.
Wednesday: Up 124.75 points.
Thursday: Up 235.06 points.
Friday: Up 297.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1048.37 points or 2.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 993.15 points or 6.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 217.6 points or 4.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 41,585.21 on 08/30/2024.
     11.5% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     5.3% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     22.1% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 5,669.67 on 07/16/2024.
     20.2% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  40,947  41,170  41,352  41,576  41,757 
Weekly  39,433  40,413  40,974  41,954  42,514 
Monthly  38,382  39,888  40,736  42,243  43,091 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,587  5,606  5,621  5,641  5,656 
Weekly  5,327  5,477  5,556  5,706  5,786 
Monthly  5,175  5,401  5,526  5,751  5,877 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,501  17,593  17,656  17,747  17,810 
Weekly  16,392  17,038  17,379  18,024  18,365 
Monthly  15,982  16,833  17,425  18,276  18,869 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AEIS, APD, AA, ALL, AEO, AMGN, AAPL, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ATO, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BAX, BERY, BFH, BBW, BG, CBT, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CSCO, CNO, CMTL, GLW, CR, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EVRG, FFIV, FMC, FTNT, FDP, GAP, GD, GL, GMS, GOOGL, GFF, GES, THG, HL, HD, HOV, HUBG, HURC, INCY, IBP, IPI, IRM, KBH, KMT, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LH, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MHO, M, MGY, MRTN, MRK, MLKN, MLI, MYGN, NOV, NJR, NWL, NOC, NTNX, OTEX, OR, PKG, PATK, PETS, PHM, RL, RGA, ROG, ROST, RGLD, ^GSPC, SBH, SAND, SEIC, SHW, SWN, TDOC, TTD, TJX, TSCO, TREX, UHAL, VFC, VMI, VECO, VEEV, WEX, WPM, WSM, WSC, IYM, IYC, ICF, IYZ, IEV, MXI, SLV, ITB, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PEJ, GLD, XLI, XLB, SPY, UNG, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Electric Utility (East)
2. Electric Utility (East)2. Electric Utility (West)
3. Electric Utility (Central)3. Homebuilding
4. Electric Utility (West)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. IT Services5. Natural Gas (Diversified)
6. Natural Gas (Diversified)6. Retail (Special Lines)
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Insurance (Diversified)
8. Advertising8. Household Products
9. Aerospace/Defense9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Internet10. Medical Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Apparel50. Chemical (Specialty)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Building Materials
52. Semiconductor Cap Equip.52. Apparel
53. Cement and Aggregates53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Human Resources54. Cement and Aggregates
55. Petroleum (Integrated)55. Semiconductor
56. Short ETFs56. Human Resources
57. Trucking/Transp. Leasing57. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 9/13/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, AKAM, AEE, AXP, AME, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMRN, BAH, BFH, CAL, CNA, CNO, CR, EMN, ECL, EME, EMR, EXPI, FDS, FDX, FTNT, FTV, FNV, FRD, GME, GILD, GGG, HTLD, HL, HD, HUBG, HUM, HURC, IDXX, INCY, ISRG, K, KMT, KMB, KSS, RAMP, MLKN, MUR, NOC, NTNX, NVDA, OR, OUT, PCTY, PHM, RGS, RGA, RHI, RCKY, ROL, RGLD, RES, CRM, SAND, SCHW, SMG, NOW, SSYS, TRGP, TPX, VEEV, VRTX, VC, WAT, WEX, WPM, WWW, ITA, BOTZ, MXI, SLV, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, TUR, EWU, GLD, XHB, UNG, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMZNUgly double bottom      08/05/202408/28/2024Internet
ARDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/04/202409/10/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVNTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/29/2024Chemical (Specialty)
AVADouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202409/05/2024Electric Utility (West)
AXSPipe top      08/26/202409/03/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BFHPipe top      08/26/202409/03/2024Information Services
CALDead-cat bounce      09/12/202409/12/2024Shoe
CPBBroadening wedge, ascending      08/13/202409/12/2024Food Processing
CNOPipe top      08/26/202409/03/2024Insurance (Diversified)
CXWTriangle, symmetrical      06/03/202409/10/2024Industrial Services
^DJTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/26/202408/30/2024None
EGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202409/04/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HONDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/06/202409/11/2024Aerospace/Defense
DHIRoof, inverted      08/27/202409/12/2024Homebuilding
IBPPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Retail Building Supply
IIINDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Building Materials
INTUDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/23/202409/05/2024Computer Software and Svcs
RAMPTriple top      08/22/202409/06/2024Computer Software and Svcs
MPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Retail Store
MLKNHead-and-shoulders top      07/18/202408/26/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
JWNTriangle, ascending      08/01/202409/12/2024Retail Store
PHMTriangle, ascending      07/31/202409/12/2024Homebuilding
ROKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Diversified Co.
SANDUgly double bottom      08/05/202409/06/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SXIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Diversified Co.
SCSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/26/202409/03/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
SSYSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/29/202409/06/2024Electronics
TPRUgly double bottom      08/05/202408/28/2024Apparel
TTDBroadening wedge, descending      08/23/202409/12/2024Advertising
TZOOFlag, high and tight      07/10/202409/11/2024Internet
VMIPipe top      07/22/202407/29/2024Metal Fabricating

 

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Thursday 9/12/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.2% or 369.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 48 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 26 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 22 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 281/502 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 80/167 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

Let me say that yahoo no longer allows data download without registering. I dislike yahoo, so I'm not going to resister so you won't see any more cryptocurrencies discussed in this blog. I've not been able to find another site to download historical data with my downloader.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At B, we see a chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. The breakout from the pattern is downward and the index tumbles.

At SHS, we see another pattern called a head-and-shoulders top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern at C. This chart pattern also had a downward breakout.

At A, we see the index shooting higher at an angle too steep to continue much longer (45 degrees or less is best). So I'd look for momentum to slow. We might even see a retrace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AYI, ADBE, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALL, AXP, AME, ADSK, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BFH, BCO, CAL, CX, CF, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CGNX, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, BOOM, FDS, FARO, FMC, FTNT, FDP, GIS, THG, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HNI, HOLX, HUBG, HUM, IEX, INCY, INFN, IIIN, KSS, KLIC, RAMP, MGY, MANH, MAN, MRO, MLM, MRCY, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, ON, OMI, PKE, PRFT, PLXS, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RL, RGA, RES, SLB, SMG, SEE, SCI, NOW, SLGN, SMAR, SUM, TDC, TSCO, TZOO, VLO, VEEV, MDRX, VC, WAT, WU, WEX, WWW, IHE, DDM, IYH, ILF, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWS, EZA, EWL, TUR, DBA, PHO, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,731.44    
 Monthly S1  16,063.48  1,332.05   
 Weekly S2  16,299.64  236.15   
 Daily S2  16,568.81  269.17   
 Low  16,787.84  219.03   
 Weekly S1  16,847.58  59.74   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  16,982.17  134.59   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,029.41  47.24   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  17,040.59  11.17   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,061.41  20.82   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,104.04  42.63   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,178.66  74.62   
 Daily Pivot  17,201.20  22.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  17,216.52  15.32   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  17,395.53  179.01   
 High  17,420.23  24.70   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,614.56  194.33   
 Weekly R1  17,764.46  149.90   
 Daily R2  17,833.59  69.13   
 Weekly R2  18,133.40  299.81   
 Monthly R1  18,372.63  239.24   
 Monthly R2  19,349.74  977.10   

Wednesday 9/11/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the CPI is bearish, highlighted by the tall vertical red line on the far right of the chart. That's no surprise because the peak (in the index) ran up against overhead resistance setup by the July 2024 peak. The index is retracing since peaking again earlier this month or late last month.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is the same chart as the last one except I removed the signal changes. I drew red lines to show where the CPI turned against the index.

The first red bar on the left shows the index retracing about a week later, but the turn-down in May doesn't last long.

The middle peak, the CPI signals about a week before a significant retrace in July. The right two signals show the timing of the CPI hump which alerted followers to the approaching weakness in the index.

If the indicator is correct, then look for the downturn to continue, but probably not much longer. The markets could rebound after the FED meeting in a week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALGT, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AXP, AIG, AMN, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BCPC, BFH, BCO, BG, CAL, CX, CVX, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CXW, COTY, CSGS, CTS, DUK, EMR, EQT, EG, XOM, FDS, FLEX, FORM, FTNT, IT, GIS, GL, GS, THG, HNI, HUBG, INCY, IIIN, KMB, LHX, LH, LRCX, RAMP, L, MGY, MTRX, MU, MS, MOS, NFG, NFLX, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, NTNX, OXY, OLN, ON, ORCL, OMI, PEN, PRFT, PFE, PGR, QTWO, DGX, RJF, RGA, RHI, ROL, SBH, SLB, SMG, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, STR, SMAR, SWN, SR, SPSC, TPX, TWLO, VMI, VECO, MDRX, VRSN, VC, WRB, WAT, WU, WSM, WWW, IAI, IYE, IHE, ICF, IAT, IEV, IXC, ILF, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWU, PEJ, XLE, XLF, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 9/10/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.2% or 484.18 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 326 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 180 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 146 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 294/536 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yahoo (YHOO, Part 1) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AES, A, AKAM, AA, AMED, AEE, AEO, AXP, AFG, AGO, ATO, ADP, AZTA, BCPC, BZH, BIO, BKH, BA, CAL, CHD, CLX, CMTL, COST, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DECK, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EMR, EFX, EQT, FAST, FISV, FORM, FTNT, FNV, GAP, GILD, GFF, GES, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, HWM, HUM, JBHT, HURC, INTU, ISRG, KMT, KFRC, LZB, LRCX, M, MANH, MLM, MTRN, MU, MSFT, MOS, NFLX, NEU, JWN, NOVT, NUS, NTNX, ORI, OR, OUT, OMI, PATK, PCTY, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PG, KWR, QCOM, RJF, ROK, SBH, SLB, SMG, SLGN, STR, SCCO, SWN, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TXN, TKR, UHAL, UNH, VECO, V, VC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WEX, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYK, DDM, BOTZ, IYH, MXI, EWA, EWO, EWC, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, PPA, DBA, PBE, ROBO, XLF, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,218.75    
 Monthly S1  39,024.17  1,805.42   
 Weekly S2  39,679.86  655.68   
 Weekly S1  40,254.72  574.87   
 Daily S2  40,300.45  45.73   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  40,304.69  4.24   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  40,518.06  213.37   
 Open  40,555.11  37.05   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  40,565.02  9.91   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  40,702.25  137.23   
 50% Down from Intraday High  40,759.15  56.89   
 Daily Pivot  40,782.63  23.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  40,816.05  33.42   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  40,829.59  13.54   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  40,872.20  42.61   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  41,000.24  128.04   
 Daily R1  41,047.20  46.96   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  41,264.81  217.61   
 Weekly R1  41,447.06  182.25   
 Weekly R2  42,064.54  617.47   
 Monthly R1  42,110.11  45.57   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  43,390.63  1,280.52   

Monday 9/9/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I've highlighted twin peak patterns (double tops). The first is at A. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when it closes below the red line.

After confirmation, the index makes a swift drop. In fact, all three double tops decline after confirmation, and the drop is steep.

Pattern B is tall. After dropping so far to confirm the pattern, there's not much left of a desire to push the index much lower. Maybe it's more accurate that the bulls gather and stop the decline.

At C, I highlight the most recent twin peak. It's height is small compared to the others (a bit smaller than A). Maybe that suggests we won't have much of a drop.

Indeed, based on support at the circle, I think the index will reverse at the green line. In other words, concerns about the economy won't hold the index down much longer.

$ $ $

I added new stock, ETF, and cryptocurrency tests to the outside days article.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 626.15 points.
Wednesday: Up 38.04 points.
Thursday: Down 219.22 points.
Friday: Down 410.34 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1217.67 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 1022.79 points or 5.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 239.98 points or 4.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.0% down from the high of 41,585.21 on 08/30/2024.
     8.7% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     15.3% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     4.6% down from the high of 5,669.67 on 07/16/2024.
     15.5% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,839  40,092  40,551  40,804  41,263 
Weekly  39,518  39,932  40,711  41,124  41,903 
Monthly  37,057  38,701  40,143  41,787  43,229 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,325  5,367  5,445  5,486  5,564 
Weekly  5,257  5,333  5,478  5,554  5,700 
Monthly  4,861  5,135  5,393  5,667  5,925 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,344  16,517  16,842  17,015  17,340 
Weekly  16,065  16,378  16,982  17,295  17,898 
Monthly  14,497  15,594  16,806  17,903  19,115 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 220 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, ACIW, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, AA, AEO, AEP, AIG, AMWD, AME, APH, AAPL, ADM, ANET, AWI, AVA, BCPC, BERY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BCO, BR, BRKR, BG, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CHD, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CAG, GLW, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CTS, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EIX, EOG, EL, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FICO, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GAP, GNW, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GES, HE, HTLD, HL, HSIC, HSY, HOV, HUN, HURC, ILMN, IIIN, INTC, IPI, INTU, JKHY, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MANH, MLM, MA, MTRN, META, MSFT, MLKN, MS, MOS, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEE, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, ORI, OTEX, ORCL, OR, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCTY, PRFT, PETS, PLXS, POR, PINC, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RTX, RGA, ROK, ROST, CRM, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, STR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SNPS, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TTD, TRV, TWLO, UHAL, UGI, VECO, VC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WPM, WMB, WWW, WDAY, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYC, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PHO, XLY, XLV, XLB, XAR, USO, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Electric Utility (East)1. Electric Utility (East)
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Homebuilding
3. Homebuilding3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Natural Gas (Diversified)5. Electric Utility (West)
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Natural Gas (Diversified)
7. Insurance (Diversified)7. Advertising
8. Household Products8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Medical Services10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Specialty)50. Petroleum (Producing)
51. Building Materials51. Building Materials
52. Apparel52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Cement and Aggregates54. Apparel
55. Semiconductor55. Cement and Aggregates
56. Human Resources56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Semiconductor Cap Equip.57. Human Resources
58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment58. Short ETFs
59. Trucking/Transp. Leasing59. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 9/6/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I added new stock, ETF, and cryptocurrency tests to the inside days article.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AEIS, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, AEE, AEO, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AMN, AR, ADM, ANET, AWI, ASH, AGO, ATO, AVA, BECN, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BFH, BR, BG, CAL, CE, CNC, CF, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CCRN, CW, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EIX, EL, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FAST, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FWRD, GIS, GNW, GPN, GL, GMS, GES, HE, HTLD, HL, HELE, HD, HOV, HUBG, HURC, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPI, JKHY, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LH, LEG, RAMP, LMT, L, LOW, LXU, MGY, MRO, MKTX, MLM, MA, MTRN, MRCY, MLKN, MS, MOS, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NWPX, NTNX, ORI, ASGN, ORCL, PATK, PRFT, PETS, POR, PINC, PRU, RJF, RTX, RGA, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SRE, SLGN, STR, SWN, TDOC, TKR, TOL, TREX, UGI, UPS, UNH, VMI, VECO, V, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WSM, WWW, ITA, IYK, IYE, IDU, DDM, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IXC, MXI, IGE, ITB, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, IBB, PBE, PHO, GLD, XAR, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Semiconductor
ALKUgly double bottom      08/06/202408/22/2024Air Transport
AAPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Aerospace/Defense
AMATPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BGHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/05/202408/20/2024Food Processing
CALPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Shoe
CLNEHead-and-shoulders top      08/13/202408/26/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
EDHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/09/202408/28/2024Electric Utility (East)
COPPipe bottom      07/29/202408/05/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
CRHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Cement and Aggregates
CROXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/23/202408/29/2024Shoe
DVNDiamond top      08/09/202408/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
DOVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Machinery
EXPPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
EMNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Chemical (Diversified)
ELVPipe bottom      07/15/202407/22/2024Medical Services
FLSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/18/202407/30/2024Machinery
GGGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Machinery
HLPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
HOVPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Homebuilding
HUNPipe bottom      08/05/202408/12/2024Chemical (Specialty)
LRCXPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LOWBroadening top      07/18/202408/26/2024Retail Building Supply
MROPipe bottom      07/29/202408/05/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
MLMPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
MUPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor
NVDAPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Semiconductor
SAIATriple bottom      08/05/202408/30/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCHWTriangle, symmetrical      08/15/202409/05/2024Securities Brokerage
STRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SCCODouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWNHead-and-shoulders top      08/19/202408/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SPSCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/09/202408/29/2024E-Commerce
TDOCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/14/202408/28/2024Healthcare Information
TREXPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Building Materials
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      08/16/202409/05/2024Air Transport
VMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Metal Fabricating
VMCPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
WATBroadening top      08/16/202409/04/2024Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 9/5/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.3% or -52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 547 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 296 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 251 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 280/501 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 80/167 or 47.9% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much has happened this week. We see a down-sloping channel, outlined in red, at A.

It would be obvious that down-sloping <anything> would break out upward most often. Here's an example where that's not true. Indeed, we see the index crashing through the bottom of the channel in the last two days.

If I had to guess, I'd say the index will climb some to rejoin the channel before continuing down, following a slope similar to that shown in A.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AA, AEE, APH, AR, APA, ATR, ANET, AGO, ATO, AVA, BALL, BKH, BFH, BMY, BG, CAL, CX, CENX, CIEN, CLF, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, ED, COP, CCRN, CCK, XRAY, DVN, FANG, DDS, DFS, EXP, EOG, FAST, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FTV, FDP, GFS, GES, HLIT, HE, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSIC, DHI, HOV, HUN, HURC, INCY, IIIN, JAZZ, KMT, KSS, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, M, MGY, MRO, MLM, MA, MTDR, MTRN, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NWPX, NTNX, OXY, ORCL, OR, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PETS, PINC, PRU, PHM, KWR, RRC, RHI, ROP, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, SRE, NOW, SMAR, SWN, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TKR, UIS, VMI, VECO, VEEV, VMC, WAT, IYM, IYE, IEZ, QTEC, BOTZ, IXC, SOXX, IGE, IEO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWI, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, DBA, PXJ, PHO, XLE, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,627.69    
 Monthly S1  15,856.00  1,228.30   
 Daily S2  16,852.16  996.16   
 Monthly Pivot  16,936.84  84.68   
 Daily S1  16,968.23  31.39   
 Low  16,984.37  16.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S2  17,007.91  23.54   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Low.
 Open  17,015.71  7.80   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  17,046.10  30.39   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,079.21  33.11   
 Close  17,084.30  5.09   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  17,100.44  16.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,108.51  8.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,137.81  29.30   
 Daily R1  17,216.51  78.70   
 High  17,232.65  16.14   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  17,348.72  116.07   
 Weekly Pivot  17,477.60  128.88   
 Weekly R1  17,515.79  38.20   
 Weekly R2  17,947.29  431.49   
 Monthly R1  18,165.15  217.86   
 Monthly R2  19,245.99  1,080.85   

Wednesday 9/4/24. 2024 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

I added new stock, ETF, and cryptocurrency tests to the article.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AES, AA, ALGT, DOX, AEE, ATO, BBY, BMRN, BOOT, BMY, CAL, CPB, COR, CNC, CENX, CDAY, CIEN, CTAS, CLF, CLX, CNA, COST, ^DJI, EME, EVRG, FICO, FARO, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FDP, GNW, GPRO, THG, HIG, HL, DHI, HOV, HWM, HUN, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, IPAR, INTU, K, KMB, LRCX, LEN, MANH, MU, MSFT, MCO, MLI, MUR, NBR, NTAP, NEU, NTNX, NVDA, ASGN, OR, PCTY, POR, PGR, PHM, RL, RMBS, RRC, RNG, RHI, ROL, ^GSPC, SLB, SMG, SIGI, SRE, NOW, SCCO, SXI, TXN, VFC, VECO, WAT, XEL, QTEC, FXI, IAT, SOXX, EWY, TUR, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 9/3/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 228.03 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 909 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 514 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 395 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 294/535 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yahoo (edition 2) (YHOO) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AEIS, AES, AA, ALGT, DOX, AMAT, ATR, ANET, ATO, AXS, BMI, BSET, BIG, BOOT, BMY, CDNS, CAL, CPB, CNC, CDAY, CRL, CLF, CCRN, ELV, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GD, GIS, GNW, HSII, HOV, HWM, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, IBKR, INTU, ISRG, JNJ, LRCX, M, MANH, MKTX, MRK, MOS, MLI, NBR, NUS, NTNX, ASGN, PKG, PETS, PFE, RNG, ROST, SAIA, SAND, SLB, SEE, SMAR, TDG, UHAL, UIS, UPS, VFC, WAT, WOLF, IYM, IYH, IAT, ILF, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWJ, EWS, EWP, TUR, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,463.25    
 Monthly S1  39,513.16  2,049.92   
 Monthly Pivot  40,549.19  1,036.02   
 Weekly S2  40,587.27  38.09   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  40,992.02  404.75   
 Weekly S1  41,075.18  83.16   
 Low  41,145.85  70.68   
 Daily S1  41,277.55  131.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  41,313.68  36.13   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  41,330.19  16.51   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  41,365.53  35.34   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  41,366.16  0.63   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  41,417.38  51.21   
 Daily Pivot  41,431.38  14.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  41,563.08  131.70   
 High  41,585.21  22.13   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  41,716.91  131.70   
 Weekly R1  41,818.10  101.19   
 Daily R2  41,870.74  52.64   
 Weekly R2  42,073.11  202.38   
 Monthly R1  42,599.10  525.99   
 Monthly R2  43,635.13  1,036.02   

 

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