Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/17/2024
  Indus: 43,239 +161.35 +0.4%  
  Trans: 16,333 -229.97 -1.4%  
  Utils: 1,062 -5.91 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 18,374 +6.53 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,841 -1.00 0.0%  
YTD
 +14.7%  
 +2.7%  
 +20.5%  
 +22.4%  
 +22.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/11/2024  
  Up arrow43,500 or 41,600 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow16,800 or 15,700 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow19,000 or 17,600 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow5,900 or 5,675 by 11/01/2024
As of 10/17/2024
  Indus: 43,239 +161.35 +0.4%  
  Trans: 16,333 -229.97 -1.4%  
  Utils: 1,062 -5.91 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 18,374 +6.53 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,841 -1.00 0.0%  
YTD
 +14.7%  
 +2.7%  
 +20.5%  
 +22.4%  
 +22.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/11/2024  
  Up arrow43,500 or 41,600 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow16,800 or 15,700 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow19,000 or 17,600 by 11/01/2024
  Up arrow5,900 or 5,675 by 11/01/2024

July 2024 Headlines

Archives


Wednesday 7/31/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The latest reading of the CPI is bullish as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows. Before that, the indicator was in neutral territory for about two weeks even as the index dropped.

There's not much else to say about this chart other than it's bullish (at least for now. The indicator can change its mind for up to a week).

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

I drew a tall vertical red line to show were the CPI peaked compared to the index. According to this chart, you had about a week's warning before the index turned down.

Circled is what's called a failure swing. The indicator bottoms and then makes a higher bottom, suggesting a bullish turn coming.

There are a number of them on this chart. The easiest one to spot is in January 2024, right above the label. I circled it in green for your viewing pleasure. Smiley

After the index bottomed, the uptrend resumed (in the index).

What does all of this mean? I think the retrace is about over. Look for the index to resume its climb.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ALRM, ALK, AA, DOX, AXP, AFG, AMWD, ANIK, AON, ADM, AWI, ASH, AVA, BMI, BIO, BKH, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BRC, BCO, BLDR, BG, CALM, CLS, COR, CNC, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CLNE, CNO, CNX, CGNX, ED, CONN, CXW, GLW, CR, CTS, CMI, DFS, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EIX, ELV, EMR, EVH, EXPI, FFIV, FARO, FLS, FDP, GME, IT, GNW, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HE, HQY, HSII, HP, HSIC, HSY, HWM, IDA, INCY, TILE, JNJ, KFRC, KMB, LHX, LANC, LDOS, MANH, MLM, MA, MTRN, MGEE, MOS, NOC, NOVT, NUS, NTNX, OGE, ASGN, OR, OMI, PTEN, PCG, PPL, PINC, PSTG, RMBS, RJF, RGA, RNG, RES, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, SCI, NOW, SCCO, TDC, VFC, VECO, VEEV, MDRX, VRSN, VC, VMC, WSC, WOLF, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, IXC, IXN, IGE, IEO, IHI, EIS, EWP, XLE, XLF, GLD, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Tuesday 7/30/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -49.41 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1399 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 731 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 668 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 290/530 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring extended V-tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALRM, ALK, ALKS, AMWD, ANIK, AR, AGO, AVA, BKH, BFH, BCO, CAL, CLS, CX, COR, CVX, CNX, CL, CXW, DVN, FANG, EXP, ECL, EOG, EQT, EVRG, EXPI, EXPD, FAST, FDX, FISV, FDP, FRD, GNW, GL, GS, GFF, THG, HLIT, HQY, HSII, JBHT, INFN, NSP, INTC, TILE, IPI, JBLU, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LPLA, MTSI, MRO, MUR, JWN, NOC, OTEX, ORCL, PANW, PKE, PINC, QCOM, RMBS, RNG, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SAIA, SBH, SEE, SIGI, NOW, STR, SWX, SR, TECH, TER, VLO, MDRX, VC, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, IXC, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWI, EWS, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, XLB, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,807.96    
 Monthly S1  39,173.95  1,365.98   
 Weekly S2  39,420.69  246.75   
 Weekly S1  39,980.31  559.62   
 Daily S2  40,243.42  263.11   
 Monthly Pivot  40,274.97  31.55   
 Weekly Pivot  40,367.07  92.10   
 Low  40,388.83  21.76   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  40,391.68  2.85   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  40,501.01  109.33   
 50% Down from Intraday High  40,535.66  34.65   
 Daily Pivot  40,537.08  1.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  40,539.93  2.85   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  40,570.31  30.38   
 Open  40,665.71  95.40   
 High  40,682.49  16.78   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  40,685.34  2.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  40,830.74  145.41   
 Weekly R1  40,926.69  95.95   
 Weekly R2  41,313.45  386.76   
 Monthly R1  41,640.96  327.51   
 Monthly R2  42,741.98  1,101.03   

Monday 7/29/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

At AB, a potential double bottom appears. Price has to close above the highest peak between the two bottoms (D) before it confirms as a valid chart pattern. Without confirmation, it's just squiggles on the price chart.

In this case, it's not a double bottom because the index drops below B at C.

I drew a line of overhead resistance in green connecting price peaks. Will price pierce this line of resistance? I don't have an answer to that. Elliott wavers may claim that it's wave 5 of an uptrend, so there's a risk of reversal.

We'll have to see how this all plays out.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 127.91 points.
Tuesday: Down 57.35 points.
Wednesday: Down 504.22 points.
Thursday: Up 81.2 points.
Friday: Up 654.27 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 301.81 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 369.06 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 45.9 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.9% down from the high of 41,376.00 on 07/18/2024.
     9.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     7.0% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     19.9% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     3.7% down from the high of 5,669.67 on 07/16/2024.
     16.6% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,882  40,236  40,495  40,848  41,108 
Weekly  39,437  40,013  40,384  40,960  41,330 
Monthly  37,824  39,207  40,291  41,674  42,758 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,402  5,430  5,459  5,488  5,517 
Weekly  5,284  5,372  5,478  5,566  5,673 
Monthly  5,228  5,343  5,507  5,622  5,785 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,136  17,247  17,351  17,462  17,565 
Weekly  16,412  16,885  17,507  17,980  18,601 
Monthly  16,051  16,704  17,688  18,341  19,325 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AFL, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AMWD, ANIK, AON, APOG, AVA, BMI, BMRN, BKH, BAH, BMY, CPB, CX, CNC, CINF, CLNE, CL, CMTL, CONN, COP, CROX, EMN, EPAM, EVRG, FICO, FIS, FISV, FMC, FTNT, FRD, GNW, GMS, GFF, THG, HIG, HSII, HOLX, ITW, INCY, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, TILE, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KLIC, LEG, LDOS, LLY, LPLA, MTSI, MTDR, META, MOS, MYGN, NOV, NWL, JWN, NWPX, ORI, OLN, PKE, PGR, PHM, RL, RMBS, RTX, RGA, ROL, ROST, SAIA, SKYW, TRGP, TER, UPS, VEEV, VC, WRB, WPM, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, BOTZ, IYH, IXC, IEO, ECH, PHO, XLV, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Computers and Peripherals
2. Computers and Peripherals2. Apparel
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Apparel4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Industrial Services5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Natural Gas (Diversified)6. Industrial Services
7. Shoe7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
8. Electric Utility (Central)8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Retail Building Supply9. Shoe
10. Electric Utility (East)10. Semiconductor
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Investment Co. (Foreign)50. Insurance (Diversified)
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Air Transport52. Information Services
53. Information Services53. Chemical (Diversified)
54. Medical Supplies54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
55. Healthcare Information55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Computer Software and Svcs56. Medical Supplies
57. Human Resources57. Healthcare Information
58. Trucking/Transp. Leasing58. Human Resources
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Friday 7/26/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AMD, AES, ALK, ALKS, ALGT, AMWD, APH, AON, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, ATO, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BSET, BBY, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BSX, BRKR, CBT, CX, CNP, CHD, CLNE, CCK, DOV, DUK, EMN, EBAY, ECL, EIX, EME, EVRG, FIS, FISV, FTV, GPS, GNW, GILD, GFS, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HBI, THG, HE, HAYN, HOLX, INCY, INTC, IBKR, TILE, INTU, KELYA, KMB, KLIC, LRCX, LLY, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MTDR, META, MSFT, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NFLX, JWN, NOC, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, OR, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, QCOM, RTX, RHI, ROP, ROST, ^GSPC, SAND, SEE, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SO, SRDX, TER, TSCO, TZOO, UNM, VMI, VECO, VEEV, MDRX, WMT, WLK, WPM, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, IAT, IXN, ILF, SOXX, SLV, EWK, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWP, EWT, TUR, QLD, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XLY, GLD, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALKSPipe bottom      07/08/202407/15/2024Drug
AEOHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/20/202407/19/2024Apparel
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/25/202407/09/2024Building Materials
ANETHead-and-shoulders top      06/20/202407/23/2024E-Commerce
ADSKBroadening top      07/01/202407/24/2024Computer Software and Svcs
AZTADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/02/202407/10/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BALLDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/09/2024Packaging and Container
BOOTDouble Top, Eve and Adam      06/20/202407/16/2024Shoe
CALDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/10/202407/05/2024Shoe
CENXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/03/202407/17/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
COSTPipe top      07/01/202407/08/2024Retail Store
CSGSTriangle, symmetrical      05/30/202407/10/2024IT Services
CMIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/05/2024Machinery
DDSTriple top      04/01/202407/12/2024Retail Store
EMEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/16/202407/25/2024Industrial Services
EXPDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/09/202407/15/2024Air Transport
HBIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/10/2024Apparel
HOVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/29/202407/01/2024Homebuilding
HWMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/28/202407/18/2024Aerospace/Defense
INTCPipe top      07/08/202407/15/2024Semiconductor
KLICPipe top      07/08/202407/15/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MTRXPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNPipe top      07/08/202407/15/2024Retail Store
PORHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/14/202407/05/2024Electric Utility (West)
RRCTriple top      06/24/202407/15/2024Petroleum (Producing)
ROLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/08/202407/23/2024Industrial Services
ROSTDouble Top, Eve and Adam      06/17/202407/12/2024Retail (Special Lines)
RESDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      07/10/202407/24/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOWTriple bottom      07/10/202407/24/2024IT Services
SHOPTriple top      06/14/202407/16/2024E-Commerce
TERPipe top      07/08/202407/15/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TTDTriple top      07/10/202407/23/2024Advertising
TMODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/09/202407/19/2024Precision Instrument
VFCPennant      07/18/202407/25/2024Apparel
WERNUgly double bottom      07/09/202407/22/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WWWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/17/202407/10/2024Shoe

 

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Thursday 7/25/24. Ethereum (ETH-USD) Review

The Nasdaq dropped by -3.6% or -654.94 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 11 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 4 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 7 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 279/498 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 78/164 or 47.6% of the time.

Picture of the ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily scale.

At A, we see what looks like a horn bottom (but it looks as if there is more than one price bar between the two spikes) or a narrow double bottom. Regardless of what you call it, the currency made a quick rise to C.

Because B and C are at nearly the same price, you might conclude that this is a chart pattern called a double top. Actually, it's not. The currency has to close below the lowest valley between the two peaks (below A) before it becomes valid.

Also, the drop from D to B makes the pattern look more like a bottom than a top.

So what's next for ETH? My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the currency will drop a bit more before finding support and rising. I drew a horizontal green line where I think the currency might reverse.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, ALKS, AEE, AFG, AMWD, APH, AMAT, ATR, ASH, AVY, AVA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BERY, BBY, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BCO, BMY, BR, CACI, CX, CINF, CTAS, CLF, CONN, DFS, ^DJI, DOV, BOOM, ECL, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FTV, FNV, FCX, GNW, GFS, GL, THG, HTLD, HL, HON, IEX, ITGR, INTC, KALU, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LDOS, L, LOW, MANH, MAN, MKTX, MRTN, MA, MGEE, MYGN, NOV, JWN, NWPX, NUS, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OR, PKE, PTEN, PEN, PNW, KWR, RGA, ROST, SCHW, NOW, SHOP, SMAR, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TDY, TER, TSCO, TDG, SLCA, UNM, MDRX, V, WPM, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IHE, DDM, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, MXI, IXN, ILF, SOXX, SLV, IHI, EWA, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, GLD, XLB, SMH, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,658.78    
 Weekly S2  16,941.69  282.91   
 Monthly S1  17,000.60  58.91   
 Daily S2  17,034.12  33.53   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  17,142.05  107.93   
 Daily S1  17,188.27  46.21   
 Low  17,313.52  125.25   
 Close  17,342.41  28.89   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  17,467.66  125.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,479.13  11.47   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,530.29  51.16   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,581.45  51.16   
 Daily R1  17,621.81  40.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  17,733.91  112.10   
 High  17,747.06  13.15   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  17,835.83  88.77   
 Weekly Pivot  17,891.79  55.96   
 Daily R2  17,901.20  9.41   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  18,092.15  190.95   
 Monthly R1  18,177.65  85.50   
 Weekly R2  18,841.89  664.24   
 Monthly R2  19,012.88  170.99   

Wednesday 7/24/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

In this chart, you can't see much of the underlying CPI line. We'll see the line in the next chart.

What we can see is that the CPI has turned neutral. That's clear by the chart showing white bars on the far right of the chart.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

Here we see the CPI line (the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart), pegged at 45 (almost midrange from 0 to 100).

I drew vertical red and green lines to match the high to low swings in the CPI. Notice the width of the three red-green pairs. They are about the same, aren't they?

If the trend continues-and there's no reason to suspect that it will and no reason to suspect that it won't-but if the trend continues then we have a few more days of retracing before the index resumes rising.

Also notice that after the red line the index doesn't drop much before the green line appears.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, A, ATSG, ALKS, AEP, AMWD, APOG, ARCB, BMI, BKH, BCO, BRKR, CX, CRL, CVX, CHD, CTAS, ED, COP, CW, DVN, ^DJI, ECL, EOG, FNV, GE, GNW, THG, HOLX, JBHT, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, JNJ, KLIC, LH, RAMP, LMT, LOW, LXU, MRO, MKTX, MRTN, MA, MGEE, MUR, MYGN, NEU, JWN, NTNX, ORCL, PKE, PFE, POR, RGA, ROK, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SMTC, NOW, SMAR, TDY, TER, RIG, TG, WAT, WERN, WSM, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IDU, DDM, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, ILF, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWD, THD, PBE, XLY. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Tuesday 7/23/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 127.91 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1161 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 636 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 525 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 290/529 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring extended V-bottoms chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AA, AEP, AMWD, AMN, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, AIZ, AVY, AZTA, BMI, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BCO, CBT, CACI, CPB, CE, CVX, CHD, CI, CLNE, CMCO, CMTL, ED, COP, COST, CCK, CTS, DECK, DVN, DSGR, EMN, ECL, EOG, EXPI, FIVN, FMC, FNV, FDP, GPS, GNW, GILD, GFS, THG, HE, HP, HNI, HUN, IEX, INCY, ISRG, K, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, MRO, MCHX, MKTX, MTRX, MDT, META, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, NUS, NTNX, OLN, ON, OMI, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PNW, PINC, PG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RES, SKX, SKYW, SMAR, SPSC, TRGP, TEVA, TXN, TMO, RIG, UNM, VFC, VMI, VECO, VC, WLK, WMB, WSC, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, SOXX, SLV, IHI, EEM, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, DBA, PJP, UNG, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,130.41    
 Monthly S1  38,772.93  1,642.51   
 Weekly S2  39,402.61  629.69   
 Weekly S1  39,909.03  506.41   
 Monthly Pivot  40,074.46  165.44   
 Daily S2  40,120.49  46.02   
 Low  40,222.77  102.28   
 Daily S1  40,267.96  45.20   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  40,318.18  50.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High  40,347.65  29.47   
 Daily Pivot  40,370.25  22.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  40,377.12  6.88   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  40,414.49  37.37   
 Close  40,415.44  0.95   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  40,472.53  57.09   
 Daily R1  40,517.72  45.19   
 Daily R2  40,620.01  102.29   
 Weekly Pivot  40,642.51  22.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  41,148.93  506.41   
 Monthly R1  41,716.98  568.05   
 Weekly R2  41,882.41  165.44   
 Monthly R2  43,018.51  1,136.10   

Monday 7/22/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Outlined in red is a nicely shaped diamond bottom. The upward breakout from this chart pattern led to a nice gain.

The two green lines highlight resistance to the upward move. Although the index pierced the lines, they closed below the top one. In short, you might see the index start a downward retrace here.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 210.82 points.
Tuesday: Up 742.76 points.
Wednesday: Up 243.6 points.
Thursday: Down 533.06 points.
Friday: Down 377.49 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 286.63 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 671.51 points or 3.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 110.35 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.6% down from the high of 41,376.00 on 07/18/2024.
     8.5% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     5.1% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     22.4% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     2.9% down from the high of 5,669.67 on 07/16/2024.
     17.6% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,949  40,118  40,372  40,541  40,795 
Weekly  39,360  39,824  40,600  41,064  41,840 
Monthly  37,088  38,688  40,032  41,632  42,976 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,459  5,482  5,520  5,543  5,580 
Weekly  5,385  5,445  5,557  5,617  5,730 
Monthly  5,282  5,394  5,532  5,643  5,781 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,541  17,634  17,785  17,878  18,028 
Weekly  17,070  17,398  18,020  18,349  18,970 
Monthly  16,787  17,257  17,964  18,434  19,141 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AFL, APD, AKAM, AA, ALL, AEE, AEP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMN, APH, AON, APOG, ACGL, AIZ, AVY, BCPC, BALL, BAX, BZH, BKH, BAH, BSX, BCO, BBW, CBT, CACI, CPB, CVX, CI, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CMCO, CAG, COP, COST, CCK, CMI, FANG, DSGR, ^DJU, DTE, EIX, EOG, FTNT, FWRD, FNV, GPS, IT, GD, GIS, GILD, GPRO, THG, HLIT, HIG, HE, HAYN, HSY, HUN, IDXX, INCY, TILE, IPG, ISRG, JNJ, K, KSS, LHX, LH, LANC, LDOS, LEN, L, LXU, MRO, MCHX, MKTX, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MDT, MRCY, META, MOS, NBR, NFG, NI, NTNX, ORI, OLN, OMC, OMI, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, POR, PHM, KWR, RTX, RGS, RLI, ROK, SAIC, SKX, SRDX, TFX, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TSCO, VFC, VMI, WMB, WSC, XEL, ZBRA, FXI, IEV, ILF, SLV, IEO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, EWU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Computers and Peripherals1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Apparel2. Semiconductor
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Apparel
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Industrial Services6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.7. Shoe
8. Metals and Mining (Div.)8. Petroleum (Producing)
9. Shoe9. Retail Store
10. Semiconductor10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Diversified)50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Information Services
52. Information Services52. Medical Services
53. Chemical (Diversified)53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing54. Chemical (Diversified)
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
56. Medical Supplies56. Medical Supplies
57. Healthcare Information57. Healthcare Information
58. Human Resources58. Human Resources
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Friday 7/19/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AMD, AKAM, ALGT, ALL, AMZN, AEP, AMGN, AMN, AON, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ANET, AVY, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BCO, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CNC, CI, CTAS, CLNE, CMCO, CMTL, COST, CCK, CSGS, FANG, DSGR, ELV, EFX, XOM, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FNV, FCX, GD, GNW, GILD, GPRO, HBI, THG, HLIT, DHI, HUN, INCY, IIIN, KLAC, LRCX, LAMR, LEN, LLY, LPLA, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MTRX, META, MU, MSFT, MOS, NBR, ^IXIC, NWPX, NTNX, NVDA, OLN, ORCL, OMI, PTEN, PAYX, PG, PGR, PHM, PSTG, KWR, QCOM, ^GSPC, SCHW, SAIC, SKX, SMAR, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TG, UNM, VFC, VMI, VECO, VEEV, WMB, WSC, XEL, ZBRA, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IEV, IGV, IXN, ILF, SOXX, IEO, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, EWU, QLD, SSO, XLP, XLE, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFHorn top      05/28/202406/10/2024Apparel
ADTNTriple bottom      06/10/202406/27/2024Telecom. Equipment
AEISRoof, inverted      05/15/202407/10/2024Semiconductor
AFLTriple bottom      06/26/202407/09/2024Insurance (Diversified)
ALGTPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Air Transport
AMNPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Human Resources
APHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/12/2024Electronics
ANIKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/23/202406/07/2024Biotechnology
APAHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/04/202407/08/2024Petroleum (Producing)
ARCBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/06/202407/09/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BMICup with handle      05/23/202407/16/2024Precision Instrument
BCOPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Industrial Services
BMYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/05/2024Drug
CBTPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Chemical (Diversified)
CVXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/17/202407/10/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
CIPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Medical Services
CSCOHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/29/202407/09/2024Computers and Peripherals
CMCOPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Machinery
COPHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/07/202407/10/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
COTYTriple bottom      06/11/202407/02/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
CRHDiamond bottom      06/25/202407/05/2024Cement and Aggregates
CCKPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Packaging and Container
DVNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/14/202407/11/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
DSGRPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Metal Fabricating
DOVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/14/202407/05/2024Machinery
ELVTriple top      06/13/202407/16/2024Medical Services
EOGUgly double bottom      06/14/202407/09/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
EFXTriangle, symmetrical      05/15/202407/10/2024Information Services
EVHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/01/202407/10/2024Healthcare Information
XOMHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/04/202407/10/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
FASTDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/02/2024Retail Building Supply
FIVNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/26/202407/10/2024Computer Software and Svcs
FLSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/09/2024Machinery
FMCPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Chemical (Basic)
FDPDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/18/202407/09/2024Food Processing
FRDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/26/202407/09/2024Building Materials
GMEPipe bottom      06/24/202407/01/2024Retail (Special Lines)
GISTriple bottom      06/26/202407/16/2024Food Processing
GMSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/01/2024Cement and Aggregates
GGGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/01/202407/10/2024Machinery
HELEDead-cat bounce      07/09/202407/09/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/27/202407/10/2024Medical Supplies
HUNPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Chemical (Specialty)
IDADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/17/202406/26/2024Electric Utility (West)
IEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/05/2024Machinery
ITWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/01/2024Metal Fabricating
INCYPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Drug
ITGRTriple bottom      06/26/202407/10/2024Electronics
ISRGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/01/202407/11/2024Medical Supplies
JKHYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/13/202407/10/2024IT Services
KDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/09/202407/15/2024Food Processing
KEYSTriple bottom      06/10/202407/01/2024Precision Instrument
KFRCTriple bottom      04/30/202407/09/2024Human Resources
LMTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/14/202407/11/2024Aerospace/Defense
LTriple bottom      05/29/202407/05/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
LOWDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/29/202407/02/2024Retail Building Supply
MGYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/08/202406/17/2024Petroleum (Producing)
MROHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/07/202407/10/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
MTDRHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/04/202407/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
MTRNTriple bottom      06/20/202407/09/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDTHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/02/202407/16/2024Medical Supplies
MRCYTriple bottom      05/08/202406/28/2024Computers and Peripherals
METAPipe top      07/01/202407/08/2024E-Commerce
MOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/202407/10/2024Chemical (Diversified)
MURPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
NTGRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/21/202407/05/2024Telecom. Equipment
NJRTriple bottom      05/29/202407/09/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWPXTriple bottom      06/17/202407/10/2024Building Materials
NOVTTriple bottom      07/01/202407/10/2024Precision Instrument
NTNXPipe top      07/01/202407/08/2024E-Commerce
OLNPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Chemical (Basic)
OMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/13/202407/02/2024Advertising
OMIPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Medical Supplies
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/13/202407/09/2024Apparel
PATKPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Retail Building Supply
PENDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202406/26/2024Medical Supplies
PFETriple bottom      06/17/202407/09/2024Drug
PHMPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Homebuilding
RJFHead-and-shoulders top      06/24/202407/12/2024Securities Brokerage
RHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/10/202407/10/2024Human Resources
RDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/14/202407/09/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SBHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/20/202407/10/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
SAICDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/14/202407/09/2024IT Services
SCSPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
SNPSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/11/2024Computer Software and Svcs
TFXUgly double bottom      06/26/202407/15/2024Diversified Co.
TEVADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/01/202407/09/2024Drug
TXTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/14/202407/05/2024Diversified Co.
RIGBig W      06/25/202407/10/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TWLOUgly double bottom      06/20/202407/10/2024E-Commerce
UGIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/14/202407/09/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
UNHDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/29/202406/20/2024Medical Services
VFCPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Apparel
VMIThree Rising Valleys      05/01/202407/09/2024Metal Fabricating
VECODouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/18/202407/11/2024Precision Instrument
WRBTriple bottom      04/26/202407/11/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/202406/27/2024Financial Services
WSCPipe bottom      07/01/202407/08/2024Industrial Services

 

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Thursday 7/18/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -2.8% or -512.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 34 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 15 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 19 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 279/498 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 77/163 or 47.2% of the time.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

$ $ $

A chart pattern called a double top appears at AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the lowest price between the two peaks. I show that with line C.

The measure rule, which is the height of the pattern (A-C) subtracted from C gives a target that price meets or exceeds 64% of the time in a bull market. Right now, the index is just under halfway to the target.

What does that mean? The measure rule is just a computed target. It's not gravity. It's not magnetism. It's just a number. The index has found support here (the sideways move during the last few hours). That could means tomorrow we'll see a snapback rally. Or it could mean the downward plunge continues. After all, the markets are expected to be weak going into the start of August, according to the updated yearly forecast. And by the way, I found a mistake where I showed the June 2024 forecast update, not July. So you might want to visit the link.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AMD, AA, ALGT, AMZN, AEE, AEP, AMGN, AMN, AON, APA, APOG, ADM, ATO, ADP, AVNT, AVA, BMI, BECN, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BCO, BMY, BR, BBW, BG, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CL, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CAG, COP, COST, CCRN, CCK, DVN, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, EME, EOG, EVRG, XOM, FWRD, FNV, GNW, GILD, GFS, HBI, THG, HL, HP, HWM, HUN, INCY, JNJ, LRCX, LAMR, LMT, L, LPLA, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MA, MTRX, META, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MOS, NTGR, NWPX, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, OLN, OMI, PAYX, POR, PG, PHM, PSTG, KWR, RTX, RES, SAND, SLB, SCHW, SCI, NOW, SLGN, STR, SKX, SMAR, SWN, TEVA, TXN, RIG, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VFC, VMI, VECO, MDRX, WSM, WSC, WWD, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, IYE, IXC, EWK, EWM, XLP, XLE, UNG, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,294.71    
 Monthly S1  17,145.82  851.10   
 Daily S2  17,813.97  668.16   
 Weekly S2  17,869.97  55.99   
 Daily S1  17,905.45  35.48   
 Monthly Pivot  17,908.44  3.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  17,933.44  25.00   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  17,972.87  39.43   
 Close  17,996.92  24.05   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  18,064.34  67.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,068.51  4.17   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,098.05  29.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,127.60  29.54   
 Daily R1  18,155.82  28.22   
 Open  18,188.19  32.37   
 High  18,223.24  35.05   
 Weekly Pivot  18,302.26  79.02   
 Daily R2  18,314.71  12.46   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  18,365.73  51.02   
 Weekly R2  18,734.55  368.81   
 Monthly R1  18,759.55  25.00   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  19,522.17  762.63   

Wednesday 7/17/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Finally, we have a resolution of the question of what happens next? I'm talking about the undecided switching from neutral bars (which are off white on the chart) and the red ones (bearish). They've been flopping back and forth for months now.

About a week ago, one bar turned green (bullish). Because signals can change for up to a week, this one has been in place long enough to remain on the chart.

That means this chart is bullish. It suggests the markets are going higher and today they did. The Dow was up almost 750 points. Nice.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This chart doesn't add much to the picture. It's bullish. It shows market strength spiking and creating a fast rise in the CPI line over the last week or so even though the index climbed at a more leisurely rate.

The CPI is at or near 100, the top of the scale. It means the CPI is going to drop (because it can't go up). When will that occur and will it translate into a meaningful drop in the index? I don't have an answer to those questions. My guess is yes, the market will grow overextended and drop, but I don't think it'll last long.

Short-term, the markets are strong, but we will likely see a retrace after such a strong upward move.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACIW, ADTN, ALRM, ALGT, AEP, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AR, APOG, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BMRN, BKNG, BFH, BCO, BR, BRKR, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CX, COR, CIEN, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, COST, CCK, DECK, DDS, DFS, DSGR, DUK, EXP, EIX, EPAM, FDX, FISV, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FNV, GME, IT, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HL, HSII, HOV, HWM, HUN, INCY, ITGR, TILE, K, KFRC, LAMR, LDOS, RAMP, L, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MRCY, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NKE, NOC, NWPX, NTNX, OLN, OMI, PDCO, POR, PFG, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, R, SAND, SMG, NOW, SHOP, SKYW, SMAR, SO, SWN, SR, SUM, TGT, TEVA, TXN, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UGI, VFC, VMI, WERN, WMB, WSC, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, DDM, IHF, MXI, SLV, EWO, EWC, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWT, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLF, GLD, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Tuesday 7/16/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.5% or 210.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 967 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 525 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 442 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 289/528 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring V-bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADTN, AEIS, ALRM, AMED, AXP, AR, AON, AAPL, AVY, AZTA, BALL, BERY, BIIB, BOOT, BSX, BRKR, CACI, CAL, CE, CNP, CRL, CI, CNX, CL, CMTL, CXW, DFS, ^DJI, ECL, EOG, EFX, EG, EXPD, FAST, FISV, FLEX, FTV, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, GPRO, HLIT, HAYN, HL, HON, HUM, IEX, ITW, INCY, ITGR, IPAR, JBLU, KBH, KFRC, KMB, KLIC, LH, LEG, L, MAN, MKTX, MRTN, MU, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NEU, NUS, NTNX, NVDA, ASGN, OTEX, PYPL, PEN, PLXS, POR, PFG, PGR, DGX, RMBS, ROK, ROP, SCI, SHW, SKYW, SO, LUV, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TGT, TFX, TEVA, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, WU, WLK, WMB, WSC, IYK, IYH, IAT, IEV, IGV, IHI, EWA, EWI, EWJ, EWL, TUR, PPA, PBE, PXJ, XLF, XLV, XAR, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,640.21    
 Weekly S2  38,761.21  1,121.00   
 Monthly S1  38,925.96  164.75   
 Weekly S1  39,486.46  560.50   
 Monthly Pivot  39,591.60  105.14   
 Weekly Pivot  39,871.85  280.25   
 Daily S2  40,017.97  146.12   
 Daily S1  40,114.85  96.88   
 Low  40,136.10  21.25   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  40,138.40  2.30   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close  40,211.72  73.32   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  40,218.23  6.51   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  40,232.97  14.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  40,243.60  10.63   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  40,268.97  25.37   
 Daily R1  40,329.85  60.88   
 High  40,351.10  21.25   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  40,447.97  96.87   
 Weekly R1  40,597.11  149.13   
 Monthly R1  40,877.36  280.25   
 Weekly R2  40,982.49  105.14   
 Monthly R2  41,542.99  560.50   

Monday 7/15/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

There's not a lot to say about this chart. The index continues to rise.

I'm not a big fan of Elliott Wave, but I've identified the waves with numbers (but I could be wrong).

Number 1 shows the index making a strong push higher. Number 2 is the retrace. Number 4 might not be a retrace. Rather, it might be a continuation of wave 3. Assigning wave counts is difficult and subject to revision, which is why I dislike Elliott. For a novice like me, it can be downright dangerous.

It seems that two experts can't agree on the wave count sometimes.

We're either waiting for a wave 4 retrace or seeing price climb in wave 5. If it's wave 5, then look for a decline where price drops, retraces the drop, and then drops again (an ABC correction).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 31.08 points.
Tuesday: Down 52.82 points.
Wednesday: Up 429.39 points.
Thursday: Up 32.39 points.
Friday: Up 247.15 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 625.03 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 45.69 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 48.16 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 40,257.24 on 07/12/2024.
     7.8% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     27.1% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 5,655.56 on 07/12/2024.
     19.9% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,540  39,770  40,014  40,244  40,488 
Weekly  38,691  39,346  39,802  40,457  40,912 
Monthly  37,570  38,785  39,521  40,737  41,473 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,555  5,585  5,620  5,650  5,686 
Weekly  5,518  5,567  5,611  5,660  5,704 
Monthly  5,204  5,410  5,533  5,738  5,861 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  18,153  18,276  18,416  18,539  18,679 
Weekly  18,004  18,201  18,436  18,633  18,868 
Monthly  16,429  17,414  18,042  19,027  19,656 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 1 days.

Here's a symbol list of 210 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADTN, ALRM, AMED, AXP, AMWD, AMGN, AON, ATR, AVA, AZTA, BSET, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CAL, CLS, CINF, CNA, CNO, CNX, CL, CMTL, COTY, CSGS, CMI, CW, DDS, ^DJI, EXP, ECL, EIX, EMR, EL, EXPD, FICO, FAST, FISV, FWRD, FNV, GME, IT, GNW, GL, GMS, GPRO, HBI, HE, HL, HSY, HNI, DHI, HOV, ILMN, INFN, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JBLU, KBH, LZB, LDOS, LEN, L, LOW, MHO, MRO, MA, MGEE, MLKN, MCO, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NJR, JWN, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, ASGN, OR, OXM, PEN, PLXS, PG, PGR, PRU, PHM, PSTG, RL, RJF, RGA, ROST, R, SAIC, SEIC, SCI, SHW, SO, SWN, SCS, SUM, TPR, TGT, TFX, TPX, TXN, TXT, TOL, RIG, TG, UHAL, UGI, VLO, VMI, VRTX, VC, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FXL, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IEV, MXI, IGE, ITB, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor2. Shoe
3. Apparel3. Semiconductor
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Telecom. Equipment
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Telecom. Equipment6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Shoe7. Apparel
8. Petroleum (Producing)8. Retail Store
9. Retail Store9. Long ETFs
10. Industrial Services10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Homebuilding
51. Information Services51. Chemical (Basic)
52. Medical Services52. Healthcare Information
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Medical Services
54. Chemical (Diversified)54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Medical Supplies56. Chemical (Diversified)
57. Healthcare Information57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Human Resources58. Human Resources
59. Short ETFs59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Friday 7/12/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 254 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, AEIS, ATSG, ALRM, AMED, AEE, AEO, AXP, AMGN, AR, AMAT, AWI, AIZ, AGO, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BERY, BIIB, BKNG, BMY, BLDR, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNC, CRL, CVX, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, COST, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DECK, DDS, ^DJU, ^DJI, D, DOV, EBAY, ECL, EPAM, EVRG, EXPI, XOM, EZPW, FARO, FTV, GME, GPS, IT, GNW, GL, GPRO, GES, HBI, HAYN, HL, HELE, HOV, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, TILE, JKHY, JAZZ, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MKTX, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NEE, NI, JWN, NOVT, NVDA, ON, OUT, OMI, PATK, PDCO, PCTY, PEN, PCG, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPG, PPL, PFG, PRU, PHM, PSTG, QCOM, RHI, ROK, ROST, ^GSPC, CRM, SBH, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SKYW, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TPR, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TER, TXN, TXT, TOL, TG, TREX, VFC, VECO, WSO, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IHE, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IYF, ITB, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XLY, GLD, XHB, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, USO, SMH, VHT, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFTriangle, descending      06/04/202407/10/2024Apparel
AMDDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/18/202407/01/2024Semiconductor
AAPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Aerospace/Defense
AEODouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/20/202407/05/2024Apparel
AIGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/17/202406/26/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ACGLDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/23/202406/25/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ASHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/02/202407/09/2024Chemical (Basic)
AGORising wedge      06/06/202407/08/2024Insurance (Life)
AVYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/02/202407/09/2024Packaging and Container
AVADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/21/202407/09/2024Electric Utility (West)
AXSTriangle, symmetrical      06/14/202407/11/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BAXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/11/202407/02/2024Medical Supplies
CNPHead-and-shoulders top      06/12/202407/01/2024Electric Utility (Central)
CIENTriangle, symmetrical      06/13/202407/11/2024Telecom. Equipment
DFSBroadening wedge, ascending      05/29/202406/27/2024Financial Services
DSGRTriangle, symmetrical      04/28/202305/26/2023Metal Fabricating
^DJUDiamond bottom      06/26/202407/08/2024None
EXPTriple bottom      06/25/202407/09/2024Cement and Aggregates
EMRTriple bottom      06/06/202406/26/2024Computers and Peripherals
EPAMUgly double bottom      06/18/202407/10/2024IT Services
EZPWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/03/202407/01/2024Financial Services
FTVBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/12/202407/11/2024Industrial Services
FCXHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/04/202407/02/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
GLHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/24/202407/09/2024Insurance (Life)
HQYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      06/12/202407/01/2024Healthcare Information
HLPipe bottom      06/24/202407/01/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
HPUgly double bottom      06/14/202407/09/2024Petroleum (Producing)
JNJDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/27/202407/05/2024Medical Supplies
KELYAPipe top      06/17/202406/24/2024Human Resources
LHXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/29/202406/14/2024Aerospace/Defense
LEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/27/202407/09/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
LENDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/28/202405/15/2024Homebuilding
LPLAHead-and-shoulders top      05/31/202407/01/2024Securities Brokerage
MADouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/16/202406/24/2024Financial Services
MRCYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/20/202406/28/2024Computers and Peripherals
NBRUgly double bottom      06/17/202407/08/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/18/202407/02/2024Electric Utility (East)
NITriangle, symmetrical      05/21/202407/08/2024Electric Utility (Central)
NVDAPipe bottom      06/24/202407/01/2024Semiconductor
OGETriple bottom      06/17/202407/09/2024Electric Utility (Central)
ONBroadening top, right-angled and descending      05/15/202407/11/2024Semiconductor
PNWHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/11/202407/05/2024Electric Utility (West)
PPGDiamond bottom      06/26/202407/05/2024Chemical (Diversified)
KWRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/21/202407/10/2024Chemical (Specialty)
QCOMPipe bottom      06/24/202407/01/2024Telecom. Equipment
RGADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/13/202407/02/2024Insurance (Life)
ROPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/24/202406/28/2024Industrial Services
SRETriangle, symmetrical      06/04/202407/10/2024Electric Utility (West)
SCIRising wedge      05/24/202406/26/2024Industrial Services
SHWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/25/202407/02/2024Chemical (Basic)
SOBroadening top      06/10/202407/11/2024Electric Utility (East)
SWXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/01/202407/09/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
SRHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/29/202407/09/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
TDYTriple bottom      06/20/202407/05/2024Aerospace/Defense
TPXDiamond bottom      06/26/202407/10/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
UPSRectangle bottom      05/29/202407/11/2024Air Transport
VDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/07/202406/24/2024Financial Services
WATDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/01/202407/09/2024Precision Instrument
WWWTriple top      05/14/202406/25/2024Shoe
XELHead-and-shoulders top      05/13/202406/04/2024Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 7/11/24. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Review

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.2% or 218.16 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 182 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 115 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 67 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 279/497 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 77/163 or 47.2% of the time.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

LS, RS, and head are the shoulders and head of a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. It confirmed as valid and the currency climbed and formed another pattern at AB.

AB is a double top, confirmed when the currency closed below the lowest low between A and B. Line C shows the value it needed to close below.

Highlighted in green (which is hard to see), is what I think of as Elliott waves (5 count, motive wave). It's only made 4 legs, so expect another down leg and perhaps additional down legs if there are extensions. I show a possible leg 5 in blue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, ATSG, ALK, DOX, AR, AAPL, ADM, ANET, ARW, ATO, AVA, BBY, BIO, BMRN, BRC, CX, CHKP, CSCO, CLNE, CNO, CNX, CAG, CTS, ^DJU, ^DJI, DTE, EXC, FICO, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, FTV, FNV, GME, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HBI, HIG, HE, HQY, HL, HSY, HON, JBHT, HURC, IDA, ILMN, IIIN, INTU, KMT, KSS, LHX, LDOS, MRCY, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NI, NOC, NOVT, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PCTY, PYPL, POR, PINC, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, ROST, RGLD, R, SEIC, SIGI, SHW, SKYW, SCS, TEVA, UHAL, VFC, MDRX, V, WSO, WLK, WPM, IYM, IYE, IHE, DDM, FXL, ILF, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, EEM, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWT, THD, PPA, PBE, PXJ, XLB, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,166.85    
 Monthly S1  17,407.15  1,240.30   
 Weekly S2  17,515.13  107.98   
 Monthly Pivot  17,886.73  371.60   
 Weekly S1  18,081.29  194.56   
 Weekly Pivot  18,223.80  142.51   
 Daily S2  18,402.46  178.66   
 Low  18,467.58  65.12   
 Open  18,512.09  44.51   
 Daily S1  18,524.96  12.87   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,539.25  14.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,561.38  22.14   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,583.52  22.14   
 Daily Pivot  18,590.07  6.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,647.45  57.38   
 High  18,655.19  7.74   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  18,712.57  57.38   
 Daily R2  18,777.68  65.12   
 Weekly R1  18,789.96  12.28   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  18,932.47  142.51   
 Monthly R1  19,127.03  194.56   
 Monthly R2  19,606.61  479.58   

Wednesday 7/10/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vacillation between neutral (white bars) and bearish (red bars) continues. You can see a hint at the bottom of the chart that the CPI is trending lower. We'll see a better view of that on the next chart.

I still think these bars represent a weakening of the general market.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

Here's the chart which shows the CPI line continuing to drop even as the index rises. That's bearish divergence. It suggests but does not guarantee that the index will following the CPI lower.

Keep in mind that bearish divergence can last for months before anything of significance happens.

$ $ $

Picture of Foresight book

I changed the title of my 'Training "Miles" ' book to "Foresight". Unfortunately, I forgot to check how many other titles used the same name (there's a lot). Oops. If you'd like to buy a copy, click on the link. And if you read the book, please post a review. The new title wiped out the existing reviews. Sigh.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, ALK, AEP, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ANET, ARW, AGO, ATO, AVA, BALL, BSET, BRC, BCO, BMY, BRKR, BBW, COR, CHKP, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CAG, CR, CTS, D, DRQ, DTE, EIX, EVH, EZPW, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, GME, GNW, GL, GPRO, HBI, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, TILE, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, K, KEYS, KFRC, LXU, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MTRN, MCO, MUR, NOV, NEU, NUS, NVDA, ASGN, ORCL, OR, OXM, PKG, PTEN, PG, QCOM, ROG, ROL, SCHW, NOW, SKYW, SO, SR, SRDX, TTD, UHAL, VLO, VC, WERN, WSM, WOLF, QTEC, FXL, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWH, PPA, PHO, XLF, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Tuesday 7/9/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -31.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1396 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 730 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 666 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 289/527 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring symmetrical triangles, part 2.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AFL, AKAM, AEP, AFG, AME, AON, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ATO, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BKH, BA, BCO, CNP, CDAY, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CMCO, ED, GLW, COTY, ^DJT, DTE, EMR, EVRG, EVH, EXPI, EXPD, EZPW, FARO, FIVN, FDP, GES, HOV, JBHT, HUN, IDA, INTC, IRM, K, KELYA, LHX, LZB, LNC, MHO, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MRCY, MU, MCO, MOS, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, JWN, NOC, NUS, ASGN, ORCL, OMI, PETS, PLXS, POR, PPG, PEG, PSTG, KWR, RLI, ROL, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SIGI, SRE, SKYW, SSYS, TGT, TPX, TDC, TTD, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, UIS, VC, VMC, WSO, WEX, IAI, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IYZ, IXC, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWP, EWT, QLD, PXJ, XAR, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,730.40    
 Monthly S1  38,537.60  807.20   
 Weekly S2  38,873.28  335.68   
 Daily S2  39,049.53  176.25   
 Monthly Pivot  39,054.41  4.88   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  39,109.04  54.62   
 Daily S1  39,197.16  88.13   
 Weekly Pivot  39,273.70  76.54   
 Low  39,278.43  4.73   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  39,344.79  66.36   
 Open  39,391.98  47.19   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,422.27  30.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  39,426.06  3.79   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,466.70  40.64   
 Weekly R1  39,509.45  42.76   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,511.13  1.67   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  39,573.69  62.57   
 High  39,654.96  81.27   
 Weekly R2  39,674.12  19.16   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  39,802.59  128.47   
 Monthly R1  39,861.61  59.02   
 Monthly R2  40,378.42  516.82   

Tuesday 7/9/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -31.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1396 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 730 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 666 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 289/527 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring symmetrical triangles, part 2.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AFL, AKAM, AEP, AFG, AME, AON, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ATO, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BKH, BA, BCO, CNP, CDAY, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CMCO, ED, GLW, COTY, ^DJT, DTE, EMR, EVRG, EVH, EXPI, EXPD, EZPW, FARO, FIVN, FDP, GES, HOV, JBHT, HUN, IDA, INTC, IRM, K, KELYA, LHX, LZB, LNC, MHO, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MRCY, MU, MCO, MOS, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, JWN, NOC, NUS, ASGN, ORCL, OMI, PETS, PLXS, POR, PPG, PEG, PSTG, KWR, RLI, ROL, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SIGI, SRE, SKYW, SSYS, TGT, TPX, TDC, TTD, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, UIS, VC, VMC, WSO, WEX, IAI, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IYZ, IXC, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWP, EWT, QLD, PXJ, XAR, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,730.40    
 Monthly S1  38,537.60  807.20   
 Weekly S2  38,873.28  335.68   
 Daily S2  39,049.53  176.25   
 Monthly Pivot  39,054.41  4.88   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  39,109.04  54.62   
 Daily S1  39,197.16  88.13   
 Weekly Pivot  39,273.70  76.54   
 Low  39,278.43  4.73   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  39,344.79  66.36   
 Open  39,391.98  47.19   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,422.27  30.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  39,426.06  3.79   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,466.70  40.64   
 Weekly R1  39,509.45  42.76   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,511.13  1.67   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  39,573.69  62.57   
 High  39,654.96  81.27   
 Weekly R2  39,674.12  19.16   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  39,802.59  128.47   
 Monthly R1  39,861.61  59.02   
 Monthly R2  40,378.42  516.82   

Monday 7/8/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

There's not much to say about the chart. The Nasdaq keeps going up. It's following a channel shown by the two near-parallel red lines.

The uptrend will continue until it stops. That may sound dumb but it's true. It's how I set my targets at the top of this page. To put it another way, a trend in motion tends to remain in motion.

However, history says that the indices tend to weaken in the summer months. The 2024 forecast, charts 2 through 4, makes this clear. Expect weakness going into August.

Let's wait and see if it happens.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 50.66 points.
Tuesday: Up 162.33 points.
Wednesday: Down 23.85 points.
Friday: Up 67.87 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 257.01 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 620.16 points or 3.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 106.71 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.8% down from the high of 40,077.40 on 05/20/2024.
     6.1% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 18,366.31 on 07/05/2024.
     26.8% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 5,570.33 on 07/05/2024.
     18.9% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,090  39,233  39,312  39,455  39,534 
Weekly  38,884  39,130  39,284  39,530  39,684 
Monthly  37,741  38,558  39,065  39,882  40,389 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,518  5,542  5,556  5,581  5,595 
Weekly  5,404  5,486  5,528  5,610  5,652 
Monthly  5,121  5,344  5,457  5,680  5,793 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  18,136  18,244  18,305  18,414  18,475 
Weekly  17,417  17,885  18,126  18,594  18,834 
Monthly  16,069  17,211  17,789  18,931  19,508 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 8 days.

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AMD, AES, A, AEE, AFG, AME, APOG, AAPL, AIZ, ATO, BMI, BSET, BIG, BKH, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CDAY, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CMCO, CXW, GLW, COTY, CR, CCK, CMI, CW, EMN, ELV, EQT, EVRG, EZPW, FLS, GE, GNW, GL, HLIT, HTLD, HL, HUN, HURC, IDA, IEX, IDXX, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, INTU, JKHY, KALU, K, KELYA, LAMR, LDOS, LPLA, M, MAS, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MOS, ^IXIC, NFLX, NOC, NWPX, ORI, OLN, OR, OMI, PETS, PNW, PPL, RJF, RNG, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAND, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SKX, SMAR, LUV, SR, TPR, TTD, TKR, TOL, TG, TWLO, WSO, WERN, WU, WPM, WSM, WDAY, ITA, FTEC, QQQ, IHF, IEV, IXC, IXN, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PHO, SSO, GLD, XHB, XRT, UNG, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor3. Apparel
4. Telecom. Equipment4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Semiconductor
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Apparel7. Drug
8. Retail Store8. Retail Store
9. Long ETFs9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Industrial Services10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Homebuilding50. Healthcare Information
51. Chemical (Basic)51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Healthcare Information52. Chemical (Basic)
53. Medical Services53. Medical Supplies
54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing54. Information Services
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
56. Chemical (Diversified)56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Chemical (Diversified)
58. Human Resources58. Short ETFs
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Human Resources
60. Short ETFs60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Friday 7/5/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AA, DOX, AEE, AFG, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AAPL, ACGL, AGO, ATO, BMRN, BOOT, BSX, BMY, CLS, CENX, CHKP, CLF, CNA, CMTL, CXW, GLW, CCK, EXP, ELV, EG, EVRG, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FNV, FDP, GME, GD, GE, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HQY, HSIC, HUM, IEX, ITGR, IBKR, IPI, ISRG, JAZZ, KALU, KELYA, KEYS, KSS, LLY, LXU, MCHX, MA, MTRX, META, MLKN, MYGN, NFLX, NEU, OTEX, PFE, RRC, RNG, RGLD, ^GSPC, SAND, SIGI, SCI, SCCO, SR, TPR, TDOC, TEVA, TTD, TSCO, TREX, V, VC, WSO, IYC, IHE, FXI, IHF, IEV, ILF, SLV, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWT, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XLY, GLD, XRT, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDPipe top      06/03/202406/10/2024Electronics
ALKTriangle, descending      05/29/202407/03/2024Air Transport
ALLTriangle, symmetrical      06/17/202407/03/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/30/202406/13/2024Biotechnology
AIZFalling wedge      05/23/202407/03/2024Insurance (Diversified)
AGOBroadening bottom      05/15/202406/27/2024Insurance (Life)
ADPThree Falling Peaks      05/22/202406/24/2024IT Services
AZTADouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/12/202406/24/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BECNTriple top      04/05/202406/12/2024Retail Building Supply
BIODouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/15/202406/17/2024Medical Supplies
BIIBTriangle, ascending      05/15/202407/03/2024Biotechnology
BADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/20/202406/25/2024Aerospace/Defense
BRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/30/202406/14/2024Information Services
CALMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/10/202406/21/2024Food Processing
CORUgly double bottom      05/29/202406/12/2024Biotechnology
CENXPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
CVXHead-and-shoulders complex top      04/12/202405/31/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
CIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202406/24/2024Medical Services
CINFHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/05/202406/26/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLNEHead-and-shoulders top      05/10/202406/24/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
CGNXPipe bottom      06/03/202406/10/2024Precision Instrument
CONNDead-cat bounce      06/24/202406/27/2024Retail (Special Lines)
DHRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/22/202406/06/2024Medical Services
FANGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/04/202406/17/2024Petroleum (Producing)
^DJIBroadening top      01/03/202401/19/2024None
DRQTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/202407/03/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DUKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/21/202406/04/2024Electric Utility (East)
EMRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/06/202406/27/2024Computers and Peripherals
EOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/04/202406/14/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
EXPDThree Rising Valleys      05/01/202406/14/2024Air Transport
FICOUgly double bottom      04/26/202405/31/2024IT Services
FLSBroadening wedge, descending      05/22/202406/24/2024Machinery
FTNTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/20/202406/26/2024Computer Software and Svcs
GDTriple top      05/21/202406/24/2024Aerospace/Defense
GSHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/30/202406/27/2024Securities Brokerage
THGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/14/202406/26/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HTLDUgly double bottom      04/30/202405/29/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HNIHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/10/202406/26/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
HOLXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/20/202406/26/2024Medical Supplies
JBHTDiamond bottom      05/23/202407/03/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
INTCTriangle, symmetrical      06/12/202407/03/2024Semiconductor
KFRCHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/30/202406/17/2024Human Resources
LAMRBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/22/202402/21/2024Advertising
LENDouble Top, Eve and Adam      06/03/202406/12/2024Homebuilding
LDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/29/202406/14/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MHOBroadening bottom      05/23/202406/21/2024Homebuilding
MRTNBroadening top      05/14/202406/28/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MOSPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Chemical (Diversified)
NBRPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NKEDead-cat bounce      06/28/202406/28/2024Shoe
NTNXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/07/202406/20/2024E-Commerce
OTEXPipe bottom      06/03/202406/10/2024E-Commerce
OXMTriangle, symmetrical      06/12/202407/03/2024Apparel
PKEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/10/202406/17/2024Chemical (Specialty)
PAYXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/22/202406/24/2024IT Services
PNWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/21/202405/31/2024Electric Utility (West)
PGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/07/202406/24/2024Household Products
PGRMulti-peaks      03/18/202407/03/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PRUPipe bottom      06/10/202406/17/2024Insurance (Life)
PHMTriple top      04/01/202405/16/2024Homebuilding
PSTGPipe top      06/10/202406/17/2024Computers and Peripherals
DGXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/20/202406/28/2024Medical Services
RLHead-and-shoulders top      05/31/202406/25/2024Apparel
RMBSTriple bottom      05/01/202406/25/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTXHead-and-shoulders top      05/23/202406/24/2024Aerospace/Defense
RGSFlag, high and tight      06/07/202406/27/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
RNGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/20/202406/27/2024Computer Software and Svcs
RBroadening bottom      05/28/202406/12/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CRMUgly double bottom      05/30/202406/17/2024E-Commerce
SLBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/06/202406/14/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SEEHead-and-shoulders top      05/17/202406/12/2024Packaging and Container
SEICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/10/202406/17/2024IT Services
SIGIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/14/202406/26/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
NOWPipe bottom      05/28/202406/03/2024IT Services
STRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/04/202406/17/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SKXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/12/202406/25/2024Shoe
SCSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/10/202406/20/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
TPRHead-and-shoulders complex top      05/16/202407/01/2024Apparel
TDCDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/07/202405/31/2024Computer Software and Svcs
TERTriangle, symmetrical      06/12/202407/02/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
UHALTriangle, symmetrical      05/30/202407/03/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WPMTriangle, descending      06/04/202406/27/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
WSMPipe top      06/10/202406/17/2024Retail (Special Lines)
WDAYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/30/202406/13/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ZBRADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/10/202406/21/2024Computers and Peripherals

 

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Wednesday 7/3/24. 2024 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AMD, A, ALK, DOX, AIG, AME, APH, AON, AAPL, AMAT, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BERY, BKNG, BOOT, BG, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CDAY, CHKP, CI, CTAS, CLX, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CONN, CXW, GLW, CRH, CROX, CMI, DHR, DDS, ^DJI, DUK, EME, EG, FDS, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FTNT, GPS, GD, GFS, GFF, GES, THG, HQY, HP, DHI, HURC, IBP, IPI, KBH, K, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LEN, LNC, MHO, MTSI, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDT, MRCY, MCO, MYGN, NBR, ORI, OTEX, PKG, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PFE, POR, PRU, PHM, RMBS, RGA, RNG, SAND, SCHW, SEE, SHW, STR, SMAR, SCCO, TPR, TDC, TER, TKR, TOL, TDG, TZOO, UGI, VFC, VC, WMT, WSO, WU, WMB, IYC, DDM, FXL, IAT, ILF, SLV, IYF, ITB, EWC, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLF, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Tuesday 7/2/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 50.66 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1417 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 728 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 689 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 288/526 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring ascending triangles, part 2 .

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 191 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, AEIS, AKAM, AA, AMED, AR, APOG, AAPL, AWI, ADP, AVA, AZTA, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIIB, BA, BRC, BCO, BLDR, CAL, COR, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CI, CTAS, CLNE, CLX, CAG, GLW, COTY, CR, CCRN, CTS, DDS, DFS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, DUK, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EME, EMR, EQT, EG, FFIV, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FNV, GME, GPS, IT, GNW, GGG, GES, HLIT, HP, HSY, HOV, HUN, IDA, IEX, ITW, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IPI, ISRG, KBH, K, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, LHX, LEN, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MOS, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NOVT, OGE, OR, OUT, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PRU, KWR, RGS, ROG, R, SLB, SEE, SHW, SKYW, LUV, SR, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TMO, TKR, TOL, TDG, TZOO, UGI, VFC, WAT, WSO, WEX, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYK, IYC, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IYZ, ILF, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWM, THD, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, XHB, XLB, XRT, XLU, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction) Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,343.63    
 Monthly S1  38,256.58  912.95   
 Weekly S2  38,554.34  297.76   
 Daily S2  38,814.85  260.51   
 Weekly S1  38,861.93  47.08   
 Monthly Pivot  38,913.90  51.97   
 Daily S1  38,992.19  78.29   
 Low  39,037.94  45.75   
 Close  39,169.52  131.58   
 Open  39,186.20  16.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,190.90  4.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  39,215.27  24.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  39,216.58  1.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,238.15  21.57   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,285.40  47.25   
 Daily R1  39,392.61  107.21   
 High  39,438.36  45.75   
 Weekly R1  39,524.17  85.81   
 Daily R2  39,615.69  91.52   
 Monthly R1  39,826.85  211.16   
 Weekly R2  39,878.82  51.97   
 Monthly R2  40,484.17  605.35   

Monday 7/1/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This shows the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

On the far left is a chart pattern called a broadening bottom. The index broke out upward from the pattern and made a good rise.

Toward the center right of the chart are two converging red trendlines. They outline another chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. This chart pattern also had an upward breakout and prices climbed away from the pattern.

The longer diagonal red line is a trendline. I wanted to see where support was and how the valleys touched the line. The January low is not on the trendline, which I found disappointing, so I didn't connect it. I would expect the trendline to support the index should it drop that far sometime in the future.

The chart seems to show a sideways move from February onward. The 2024 forecast shows the Dow dropping going into August, so expect weakness from here. I'll update the forecast on Wednesday's post.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 260.88 points.
Tuesday: Down 299.05 points.
Wednesday: Up 15.64 points.
Thursday: Up 36.26 points.
Friday: Down 45.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 31.47 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 43.24 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 4.14 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.4% down from the high of 40,077.40 on 05/20/2024.
     5.4% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.7% down from the high of 18,035.00 on 06/28/2024.
     22.5% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 5,523.64 on 06/28/2024.
     16.6% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,660  38,889  39,167  39,396  39,673 
Weekly  38,537  38,828  39,200  39,490  39,862 
Monthly  37,327  38,223  38,897  39,793  40,467 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,406  5,433  5,478  5,506  5,551 
Weekly  5,400  5,430  5,477  5,507  5,554 
Monthly  5,060  5,260  5,392  5,592  5,724 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,519  17,626  17,830  17,937  18,142 
Weekly  17,213  17,473  17,754  18,014  18,295 
Monthly  15,815  16,774  17,404  18,363  18,994 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALK, AA, ALGT, DOX, ANIK, APOG, AAPL, ATR, BALL, BAX, BERY, BA, BOOT, BAH, BCO, CAL, COR, CENX, CHKP, CI, CTAS, CLNE, CLF, CTSH, ED, CXW, COST, XRAY, DFS, ^DJU, D, EIX, EME, EQT, EG, EXPD, FAST, FE, FMC, FWRD, FNV, GFF, HLIT, HE, HP, HWM, HUM, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, INTU, JAZZ, KALU, KMT, KEYS, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LDOS, LPLA, MTSI, M, MAN, MRTN, MA, MDT, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MOS, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NKE, NUS, NTNX, ORI, OMI, OXM, PATK, PETS, POR, PPL, PRU, PSTG, KWR, RL, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, SEE, SKYW, SR, SCS, TPX, TEVA, TDG, TZOO, TREX, V, WU, WSC, WOLF, WWW, WWD, XEL, ITA, IYC, IEZ, FXI, QQQ, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, THD, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, SSO, SPY, XLU, USO, VIS, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Apparel3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Telecom. Equipment
5. Semiconductor5. Apparel
6. Telecom. Equipment6. Semiconductor
7. Drug7. Drug
8. Retail Store8. Industrial Services
9. Computers and Peripherals9. Retail Store
10. Industrial Services10. Long ETFs
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Healthcare Information50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Chemical (Basic)52. Air Transport
53. Medical Supplies53. Information Services
54. Information Services54. Medical Supplies
55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing55. Chemical (Diversified)
56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment56. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
57. Chemical (Diversified)57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Short ETFs
59. Human Resources59. Human Resources
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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