As of 09/18/2024
Indus: 41,503 -103.08 -0.2%
Trans: 16,071 +57.68 +0.4%
Utils: 1,050 -9.27 -0.9%
Nasdaq: 17,573 -54.76 -0.3%
S&P 500: 5,618 -16.32 -0.3%
|
YTD
+10.1%
+1.1%
+19.1%
+17.1%
+17.8%
|
 42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/202416,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024 |
As of 09/18/2024
Indus: 41,503 -103.08 -0.2%
Trans: 16,071 +57.68 +0.4%
Utils: 1,050 -9.27 -0.9%
Nasdaq: 17,573 -54.76 -0.3%
S&P 500: 5,618 -16.32 -0.3%
|
YTD
+10.1%
+1.1%
+19.1%
+17.1%
+17.8%
| |
|
42,000 or 40,100 by 10/01/202416,200 or 15,300 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,750 or 5,400 by 10/01/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on September 3, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
With the large drop in the indices today (Tuesday), the CPI turned bearish with an 8.5 reading, with 100 being the most bullish and 0 being the most bearish.
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
The Dow is forecast to close the year 6% higher. It's up 10% as of Friday's close. Will it drop that far by year end?
Highlighted by the vertical green line at A is a bottom that's close to the forecasted valley. The green line closest to peak B shows that the forecasted peak will happened a few weeks later than the recent peak in the Dow.
This is the Nasdaq.
The green line near A shows the recent actual bottom versus the forecast. B shows weakness coming next month, but notice that valley A is below B, so we shouldn't tumble as far in October (if the forecast is correct).
C shows the timing of the actual versus forecast peak.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
Line A highlights the timing of the July peak, B shows the valley, and C shows the forecast peak in two weeks.
Here's the updated Dow utilities 10-year forecast.
The utilities should end the coming 10 years 51% higher than they were at the start of the year. That may sound like a big gain, and it is, but that's less than 5% a year if you factor in compounding.
I show relative peaks in 2027 and 2032, with weakness setting in during 2028.
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