As of 11/06/2024   Indus: 43,730 +1,508.05 +3.6%     Trans: 17,462 +890.44 +5.4%     Utils: 1,014 -9.52 -0.9%     Nasdaq: 18,983 +544.30 +3.0%     S&P 500: 5,929 +146.28 +2.5%	YTD  +16.0%    +9.8%    +15.0%    +26.5%    +24.3%	Targets    Overview: 10/31/2024     43,100 or 41,250 by 11/15/2024   16,800 or 15,700 by 11/15/2024   1,075 or 1,000 by 11/15/2024   19,000 or 17,600 by 11/15/2024   5,900 or 5,600 by 11/15/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/4/24

As of 11/06/2024   Indus: 43,730 +1,508.05 +3.6%     Trans: 17,462 +890.44 +5.4%     Utils: 1,014 -9.52 -0.9%     Nasdaq: 18,983 +544.30 +3.0%     S&P 500: 5,929 +146.28 +2.5%	YTD  +16.0%    +9.8%    +15.0%    +26.5%    +24.3%
Targets    Overview: 10/31/2024     43,100 or 41,250 by 11/15/2024   16,800 or 15,700 by 11/15/2024   1,075 or 1,000 by 11/15/2024   19,000 or 17,600 by 11/15/2024   5,900 or 5,600 by 11/15/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/4/24

Thursday 11/7/24. Dow After 2016 Election

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I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale, but the chart is from 2016.

Instead of charting the Nasdaq intraday, I thought it would be instructive to see what happened the last time Trump won the election.

The chart shows the election on November 8, 2016. The next day, Trump was declared the winner, beating Clinton.

Notice what the Dow industrials did.

From the November low, the Dow was already moving up as if a Trump win was expected. After he won, it continued to rise.

What will happen this time? No one knows, of course. But the CPI (chart pattern indicator) reached 87.8 today, which is bullish but far below 100. I thought the indicator would be pegged at 100. Hmm. To me, that's a danger signal.

With the above stats suggesting a lower close 58% of the time (near random), I'm thinking that we'll see the markets retrace sone of the big gain.

Oh. I should mention that I thought the markets would be quiet (see yesterday's blog post) until the FED announces a quarter-point drop in rates tomorrow (Thursday). So I missed calling this rally. Oops. I didn't think the markets would react to a win by either side.

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Here's a symbol list of 354 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ABM, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AES, AFL, A, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALKS, ALGT, ALL, DOX, AMED, AEO, AMWD, AME, AMN, APH, AR, AON, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ANET, AWI, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BERY, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BFH, BMY, BR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CPB, CE, CLS, CX, COR, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, COP, CXW, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CW, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, EXP, ECL, EME, EMR, EFX, EQT, EG, EVH, EXPI, FFIV, FAST, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FWRD, GAP, GD, GIS, GNW, GILD, GPN, GFS, GL, GMS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, THG, HQY, HL, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, DHI, HWM, HUBG, JBHT, IEX, ITW, INCY, INFN, PODD, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, INTU, JKHY, JAZZ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LH, LANC, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, L, LPLA, MGY, MRO, MKTX, MRTN, MTDR, MTRN, MRK, MRCY, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MS, MOS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NFLX, NEU, NEE, NKE, JWN, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, OMC, OR, OUT, PKG, PKE, PCTY, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PFG, PGR, PRU, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, REGN, RGS, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ROST, RGLD, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SBH, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SCI, NOW, SLGN, STR, SKX, SKYW, SMAR, SR, SPSC, SXI, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TRGP, TGT, TECH, TDC, TER, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TG, UIS, UNH, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, MDRX, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, WPM, WMB, WSC, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, MXI, SLV, IEO, IYF, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWW, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLB, XRT, SPY, SMH, VHT, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Wednesday 11/6/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bullish as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

The signal suggests that the recent retrace in the index is over, but I know that big moves like we saw today (Tuesday) are what pulled the CPI higher.

I drew a red line to show the timing of the CPI peak related to the index, and the green line to show where the CPI turned higher. (I think I drew the green line incorrectly. It should line up better with the gap in the index).

This chart shows the CPI suggesting a higher move coming.

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The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday and Thursday this week, so expect the markets to be calm until late Thursday afternoon when they announce their decision. Look for a one-quarter drop in interest rates.

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Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, AXDX, AEIS, AFL, A, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ALKS, DOX, AEO, AIG, AMN, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ADM, ANET, AGO, BMI, BAX, BA, BRC, BMY, CE, CLS, CNC, CENX, CHD, CTAS, CLNE, CLF, CR, CRH, CSGS, CMI, BOOM, EME, EFX, EXPI, FDX, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FTNT, FNV, GNW, GMS, GFF, THG, HLIT, HQY, HSII, HD, HUBG, HUN, IDA, IBP, IIIN, IRM, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LEG, LPLA, MTSI, MKTX, MS, MUR, ^IXIC, NWL, NEU, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, ASGN, OUT, PATK, PPG, PINC, KWR, RNG, RHI, RCKY, R, SCHW, SKX, SMAR, SSYS, TPR, TRGP, TPX, TKR, RIG, TREX, UIS, UNM, WSO, WLK, WMB, IAI, IYC, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, IXN, IYF, IHI, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWM, EWW, EZA, PBE, XAR, XLK, UNG, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Tuesday 11/5/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Williams-Sonoma (WSM) stock.

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Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, AXDX, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, AEO, AIG, AMGN, AGO, BALL, BSET, CNP, CDAY, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CNX, CMTL, GLW, CCRN, CSGS, DVN, EMN, EBAY, EME, EOG, EPAM, EXPI, FIS, FTNT, FTV, GNW, GFS, HE, HAYN, HSII, HUM, JBHT, HURC, IBP, IPG, JKHY, KBH, K, KELYA, KMT, KSS, LNC, L, LPLA, MHO, MS, MOS, NWL, JWN, OMI, OXM, PEN, PFE, PNW, POR, PEG, PHM, PSTG, RGS, CRM, SIGI, SHW, SLGN, SMAR, TPR, TDC, TOL, TG, UHAL, UNM, VECO, MDRX, VC, VMC, WRB, WLK, WEX, WSM, WDAY, ZBRA, IDU, IAT, IYZ, MXI, ILF, ITB, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWM, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, THD, TUR, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Monday 11/4/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The chart pattern pictured is a rising wedge. That's bad news for two reasons.

First, the wedge breaks out downward most often 60% of the time, according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd Edition (#AD)

In this case, the wedge did the unusual by breaking out upward first. However, the index reversed and dropped below the bottom red trendline.

Second, this is what I call a busted rising wedge, although I usually wait for the security to close below the bottom of the chart pattern. In this case, that would be a delay that's too far.

What does a busted pattern mean? It suggests, but does not guarantee, that we'll see the index continue to drop.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, AYI, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AFG, AIG, APH, ANIK, APOG, AAPL, ACGL, AGO, AVNT, AXS, BSET, BKNG, BSX, BRKR, BBW, CE, CNP, CF, CHD, CNX, CMTL, COST, CCRN, CSGS, ^DJU, ^DJI, EMN, ECL, EIX, ELV, EOG, EQT, EG, FORM, FTV, GNW, GMS, HE, HP, DHI, IDA, PODD, INTC, TILE, INTU, KBH, KEYS, LEN, LNC, LPLA, MHO, MGY, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MGEE, MU, MCO, MUR, MYGN, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NWPX, OGE, ASGN, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, OMI, OXM, PANW, PDCO, PCG, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, KWR, REGN, RGA, ROL, RGLD, SAIA, SIGI, SHOP, SMAR, SO, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TOL, TG, UNM, VLO, VMC, WRB, WMT, WERN, WMB, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IDU, IYZ, IXC, SLV, IGE, IHI, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EIS, EWW, EWT, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PHO, SSO, GLD, SPY, XAR, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Friday 11/1/24. 2024 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALKS, ALGT, ALL, AFG, ANIK, ATR, ACGL, ANET, ARW, AGO, AXS, BALL, BAX, BECN, BIO, BA, BKNG, BFH, BMY, BBW, CACI, CE, CX, CNC, CF, CLNE, CNX, CGNX, COST, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CW, DECK, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, EMN, EBAY, ECL, EL, EG, FLEX, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FNV, FCX, FRD, GNW, THG, HL, HUN, HURC, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IPG, KBH, KEYS, LRCX, L, LPLA, MHO, MGY, MCHX, MA, MTDR, MU, MLKN, MCO, NEU, NKE, JWN, NOVT, NTNX, ORI, OMCL, ORCL, OUT, OXM, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PPG, PINC, PHM, REGN, RCKY, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SCI, SCCO, LUV, SPSC, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TRGP, TOL, TWLO, UNH, VFC, VECO, WRB, WSC, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYM, DDM, IHF, IYZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWK, EEM, EIS, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PPA, SSO, XLI, SPY, XAR, VIS, VAW, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.