Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/17/2025
  Indus: 43,488 +334.70 +0.8%  
  Trans: 16,431 -169.75 -1.0%  
  Utils: 1,013 +1.53 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 19,630 +291.91 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,997 +59.32 +1.0%  
YTD
 +2.2%  
 +3.4%  
 +3.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/15/2025  
  Up arrow44,700 or 41,600 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow17,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow1,050 or 950 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow20,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow6,100 or 5,700 by 02/01/2025
As of 01/17/2025
  Indus: 43,488 +334.70 +0.8%  
  Trans: 16,431 -169.75 -1.0%  
  Utils: 1,013 +1.53 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 19,630 +291.91 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,997 +59.32 +1.0%  
YTD
 +2.2%  
 +3.4%  
 +3.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/15/2025  
  Up arrow44,700 or 41,600 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow17,200 or 15,700 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow1,050 or 950 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow20,500 or 18,670 by 02/01/2025
  Up arrow6,100 or 5,700 by 02/01/2025

December 2024 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 12/31/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -1.0% or -418.48 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 398 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 193 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 205 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 298/549 or 54.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 56/119 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Vertex Pharmaceutical: VRTX stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ATSG, ALB, DOX, APH, AR, ATR, BKNG, BRC, BFH, BG, CALM, CF, CHD, CNA, CTSH, CL, CMTL, CXW, COST, COTY, CRH, CSGS, DDS, EPAM, EQT, EVH, FARO, FAST, FIS, FLS, FWRD, FCX, GL, HIG, HL, HSII, HD, HUN, IEX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, TILE, IPG, ISRG, KMT, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, MTSI, M, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MDT, MRCY, MU, MSFT, NKE, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, OMCL, OMC, OUT, OXM, PYPL, PPG, RL, RRC, REGN, RGS, RGA, RHI, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SCI, SLGN, SCCO, TDC, TER, TMO, RIG, TREX, VMI, MDRX, VMC, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, QTEC, FXL, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IEV, MXI, SLV, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWW, EZA, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, XLY, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, UNG, USO, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,337.26    
 Monthly S1  41,455.50  1,118.23   
 Weekly S2  41,964.42  508.92   
 Daily S2  41,966.68  2.27   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  42,263.51  296.83   
 Weekly S1  42,269.07  5.56   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  42,270.21  1.13   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  42,492.84  222.64   
 50% Down from Intraday High  42,563.68  70.84   
 Daily Pivot  42,567.04  3.35   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  42,573.73  6.70   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  42,634.53  60.80   
 Weekly Pivot  42,821.53  187.00   
 High  42,863.86  42.33   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  42,863.86  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Daily R1  42,870.55  6.70   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  43,126.18  255.63   
 Daily R2  43,167.38  41.20   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly Pivot  43,264.56  97.18   
 Weekly R2  43,678.64  414.07   
 Monthly R1  44,382.80  704.16   
 Monthly R2  46,191.86  1,809.07   

Monday 12/30/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is the Dow transports on the daily scale. The chart looks busy but most of the patterns are the same.

Peaks AB, DE, FG are double tops, or some variation of Adam and Eve. What does that mean? An Adam peak is narrow and tall, sometimes a one-day needle. Eve is wide, often with nubbin's sticking out, like your shaver missed them.

Peaks AB is an Adam & Adam double top. FG and DE look like and Adam & Eve patterns. Peak H is an obvious Eve top. Compare H to A or B.

HI looks like an ugly double top where the two peaks should reach the same value but don't (and miss by a lot). The twin-peak pattern confirms as a valid double top when the index closes below the green line at C.

The measure rule (to set a price target) for double tops is the height, from tallest peak to the valley between the two peaks. In this case, that's I to C. Extended below C, we see the lower green line, which is the target.

The index has reached the target and looks to be turning upward. After such a strong downdraft from peak I, it looks to me like the transports have bottomed and are poised to rise. Maybe we'll see a recovery begin in the new year.

$ $ $

I released results of testing on a new pattern called the 2-tall.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 66.69 points.
Tuesday: Up 390.08 points.
Thursday: Up 28.77 points.
Friday: Down 333.59 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 151.95 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 149.43 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 39.99 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.6% down from the high of 45,073.63 on 12/04/2024.
     15.8% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     2.4% down from the high of 20,204.58 on 12/16/2024.
     36.2% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     2.1% down from the high of 6,099.97 on 12/06/2024.
     27.5% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  42,520  42,756  42,998  43,234  43,475 
Weekly  42,104  42,548  42,961  43,405  43,818 
Monthly  40,477  41,734  43,404  44,662  46,331 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,897  5,934  5,970  6,007  6,043 
Weekly  5,827  5,899  5,974  6,046  6,122 
Monthly  5,700  5,835  5,968  6,103  6,235 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  19,375  19,549  19,727  19,900  20,078 
Weekly  19,200  19,461  19,766  20,027  20,331 
Monthly  18,354  19,038  19,621  20,305  20,889 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 44 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ACIW, BFH, CALM, CL, CXW, FANG, DDS, EZPW, FICO, FARO, FAST, FIVN, FTNT, FRD, GMS, HE, HTLD, K, LANC, MCHX, NTNX, PANW, RGS, SLB, SMAR, TER, TZOO, VMI, WMB, WDAY, FDN, IXC, EEM, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWY, TUR. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. E-Commerce
2. Securities Brokerage2. Internet
3. E-Commerce3. IT Services
4. Financial Services4. Securities Brokerage
5. Insurance (Diversified)5. Financial Services
6. IT Services6. Insurance (Diversified)
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Machinery9. Machinery
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Investment Co. (Domestic)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Human Resources50. Drug
51. Chemical (Basic)51. Semiconductor
52. Drug52. Short ETFs
53. Medical Services53. Human Resources
54. Short ETFs54. Medical Services
55. Petroleum (Integrated)55. Petroleum (Integrated)
56. Petroleum (Producing)56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Biotechnology57. Petroleum (Producing)
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
59. Semiconductor Cap Equip.59. Biotechnology
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Semiconductor Cap Equip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/27/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 68 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AFG, APOG, BSET, BFH, CALM, CLS, CHD, CLNE, CXW, CSGS, DECK, DDS, EZPW, FARO, GME, GD, GNW, HNI, HON, IEX, INFN, NSP, PODD, JAZZ, K, KMT, KFRC, LH, LANC, LMT, M, MAN, MKTX, MLKN, NOC, OLN, ASGN, PKE, PETS, PSTG, QTWO, RGS, ROL, SAIA, CRM, SXI, SCS, SUM, TER, TKR, WERN, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IYK, FTEC, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWY, THD, TUR, PBE, PJP, XLP. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ARCBPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BCPCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/06/202411/25/2024Chemical (Specialty)
BIOBroadening bottom      11/25/202412/19/2024Medical Supplies
CHKPRoof, inverted      12/04/202412/26/2024E-Commerce
DVNTriangle, descending      09/26/202411/25/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
EBAYRising wedge      11/20/202412/23/2024Internet
IIINHead-and-shoulders complex top      11/11/202412/17/2024Building Materials
LANCPipe top      12/09/202412/16/2024Food Processing
MRTNPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
NEUDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/06/202412/16/2024Chemical (Specialty)
NOVTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/16/2024Precision Instrument
PFEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      12/05/202412/12/2024Drug
PNWBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      08/02/202412/18/2024Electric Utility (West)
PORDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/12/2024Electric Utility (West)
RGSPipe bottom      12/09/202412/16/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
SEEHead-and-shoulders complex top      09/27/202412/09/2024Packaging and Container
SPSCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/11/202412/18/2024E-Commerce
WMTTriple top      12/06/202412/18/2024Retail Store

 

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Thursday 12/26/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.3% or 266.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 174 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 111 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 63 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 286/513 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 82/170 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Trading at A ended early for the day. The markets do that sometimes before a holiday.

Notice at B that the index climbed to the red line and stopped. The red line touches prior peaks and valleys. In technical terms, the line shows support and resistance. Whether it'll push through that resistance on Friday is anyone's guess.

The percentage of time the markets close higher after Christmas is random, 50% (in a bull market. In a bear market, it's much higher: 68%)

$ $ $

Have a happy holiday!

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 12 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, BFH, CALM, CXW, DDS, FARO, LANC, M, PSTG, RGS, WDAY. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,103.72    
 Weekly S2  18,765.16  661.44   
 Monthly S1  19,067.43  302.26   
 Weekly S1  19,398.15  330.72   
 Monthly Pivot  19,636.00  237.86   
 Daily S2  19,741.30  105.30   
 Weekly Pivot  19,801.36  60.06   
 Low  19,813.76  12.40   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  19,818.48  4.72   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  19,886.22  67.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,896.79  10.58   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,922.45  25.65   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,948.09  25.65   
 Daily Pivot  19,958.67  10.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  20,031.13  72.46   
 High  20,031.13  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  20,103.59  72.46   
 Daily R2  20,176.04  72.46   
 Weekly R1  20,434.35  258.30   
 Monthly R1  20,599.71  165.36   
 Weekly R2  20,837.56  237.86   
 Monthly R2  21,168.28  330.72   

Tuesday 12/24/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.2% or 66.69 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1391 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 757 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 634 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 297/548 or 54.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 56/119 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring VF Corp: VFC stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AES, AKAM, AA, AEO, APOG, AGO, AVY, BZH, BKNG, CBT, CE, CX, CNC, CHD, CNO, CL, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CROX, CSGS, DDS, DSGR, ^DJI, EIX, EXC, FDS, FTV, FNV, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GL, HLIT, HIG, HE, HSII, HOLX, HUM, IDXX, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, IPG, JNJ, K, KELYA, KSS, LANC, L, M, MRTN, NFLX, NEE, NVDA, ORI, OR, PEN, PFG, PRU, RL, RJF, RTX, ROG, ROL, ^GSPC, SEIC, SCI, SMAR, SCS, TRGP, TER, TMO, TREX, TWLO, UNM, VEEV, WMT, WERN, WU, WEX, WMB, WWD, DDM, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWW, EZA, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, SSO, XLP. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,448.34    
 Weekly S2  41,196.37  748.04   
 Monthly S1  41,677.64  481.27   
 Weekly S1  42,051.66  374.02   
 Daily S2  42,352.95  301.29   
 Low  42,516.87  163.92   
 Daily S1  42,629.95  113.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  42,685.30  55.35   
 50% Down from Intraday High  42,737.33  52.03   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  42,789.36  52.03   
 Daily Pivot  42,793.87  4.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  42,800.49  6.62   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  42,906.95  106.46   
 High  42,957.79  50.84   
 Weekly Pivot  43,001.62  43.83   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  43,070.87  69.25   
 Daily R2  43,234.79  163.92   
 Monthly Pivot  43,375.64  140.85   
 Weekly R1  43,856.91  481.27   
 Monthly R1  44,604.95  748.04   
 Weekly R2  44,806.87  201.93   
 Monthly R2  46,302.94  1,496.07   

Monday 12/23/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

There's not a lot shown on the chart.

At A, a broadening top, highlighted by the two diverging red lines, appears. The index punctured the broadening top (also at A). The index has returned inside of the chart pattern.

My guess is that you'll see the index continue to rise. The recent drop from the high on the chart is overdone.

If you want income, then look at utility stocks with the view of holding for a few years. The dividend rate they pay now will likely grow, boosting the yield on the original cost of the shares.

Shares I bought years ago are now paying almost 10% and the share price has grown, too. Yum. Dividends, if held for a year, at taxed at capital gains rates, too. That may change later this year with the expiration of tax bill. (I'm not sure about that).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 110.58 points.
Tuesday: Down 267.58 points.
Wednesday: Down 1123.03 points.
Thursday: Up 15.37 points.
Friday: Up 498.02 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 987.8 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 354.12 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 120.24 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.0% down from the high of 45,073.63 on 12/04/2024.
     15.4% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     3.1% down from the high of 20,204.58 on 12/16/2024.
     35.2% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     2.8% down from the high of 6,099.97 on 12/06/2024.
     26.7% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  41,665  42,252  42,734  43,322  43,804 
Weekly  41,174  42,007  42,979  43,812  44,785 
Monthly  40,426  41,633  43,353  44,560  46,281 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,765  5,848  5,915  5,998  6,065 
Weekly  5,697  5,814  5,949  6,067  6,202 
Monthly  5,687  5,809  5,954  6,076  6,222 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  18,910  19,241  19,500  19,831  20,090 
Weekly  18,612  19,092  19,649  20,129  20,685 
Monthly  17,951  18,762  19,483  20,294  21,015 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AES, ATSG, AA, ALGT, AMZN, AEE, APOG, AMAT, ANET, AIZ, AGO, AVA, AXS, BOOT, BMY, BBW, CAL, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CVX, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CRH, CTS, DDS, DSGR, EBAY, EVH, FICO, FARO, FAST, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FTV, FRD, GME, GL, GMS, HSII, HWM, INCY, INFN, IPG, IPI, K, KMT, KLAC, KLIC, LZB, MA, MTDR, MLI, ^IXIC, NFG, NTGR, JWN, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OXY, OR, PAYX, QTWO, RJF, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SRE, SLGN, LUV, SCS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TER, TREX, UHAL, UPS, VFC, VEEV, VC, WAT, WU, WSC, WOLF, IAI, IEZ, DDM, FTEC, FDN, IAT, IEV, IXN, EWO, EIS, EWW, TUR, PPA, SSO, XLP, XLI, XRT, XLK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. E-Commerce1. Internet
2. Internet2. E-Commerce
3. IT Services3. IT Services
4. Securities Brokerage4. Securities Brokerage
5. Financial Services5. Financial Services
6. Insurance (Diversified)6. Insurance (Diversified)
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Machinery
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Machinery9. Investment Co. (Domestic)
10. Investment Co. (Domestic)10. Natural Gas (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Drug50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Semiconductor51. Chemical (Basic)
52. Short ETFs52. Human Resources
53. Human Resources53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Medical Services54. Semiconductor
55. Petroleum (Integrated)55. Drug
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Petroleum (Producing)
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Medical Services
58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment58. Biotechnology
59. Biotechnology59. Short ETFs
60. Semiconductor Cap Equip.60. Semiconductor Cap Equip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/20/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADTN, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALKS, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CENX, CF, CVX, CTAS, CSCO, CLNE, CL, CAG, COTY, CRH, CROX, DDS, DSGR, ECL, EFX, FDS, FAST, FORM, FTV, FRD, GME, GE, GL, GMS, GPRO, THG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HSY, DHI, INCY, IPG, K, LZB, LEN, MTDR, ^IXIC, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, ON, ORCL, OR, PAYX, PCTY, PPL, PHM, RMBS, RRC, ROG, RES, SAND, SAIC, SLGN, SWX, SPSC, SCS, TDY, TPX, TER, TEVA, TOL, TSCO, TREX, UHAL, VEEV, VC, WMB, WSC, WOLF, XEL, IYM, IAT, IEV, MXI, IXN, SLV, ITB, EWO, EWW, EWL, THD, TUR, DBA, PJP, XLI, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

12/19/24I released the 2-Did pattern.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriple top      11/11/202412/05/2024Diversified Co.
ACIWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/07/202411/25/2024IT Services
AYITriple top      11/13/202412/04/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
ADTNHorn top      11/25/202412/09/2024Telecom. Equipment
AFLTriple top      10/04/202411/27/2024Insurance (Diversified)
APDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/21/202412/03/2024Chemical (Diversified)
AFGHead-and-shoulders top      11/13/202412/06/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AIGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/18/202411/06/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/13/202411/25/2024Industrial Services
APHTriple top      11/25/202412/16/2024Electronics
ANIKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/27/202412/11/2024Biotechnology
ARPipe top      11/18/202411/25/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
ATRPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Packaging and Container
ATOBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/16/202412/19/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
ADPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/13/202411/27/2024IT Services
AXSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/05/202412/17/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BSETDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/02/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
BKNGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/06/202412/12/2024Internet
BRCBroadening top      11/26/202412/19/2024Chemical (Diversified)
BMYThree Falling Peaks      11/25/202412/09/2024Drug
BRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/27/202412/06/2024Information Services
CBTPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Chemical (Diversified)
CDNSHead-and-shoulders top      11/26/202412/16/2024Computer Software and Svcs
CDAYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/25/2024Information Services
CFHead-and-shoulders top      11/21/202412/12/2024Chemical (Basic)
CRLDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/25/202412/10/2024Biotechnology
CIHorn top      09/03/202409/16/2024Medical Services
CSCOHead-and-shoulders top      11/27/202412/12/2024Computers and Peripherals
CLNEHead-and-shoulders top      10/17/202411/27/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
CLFHead-and-shoulders top      11/25/202412/09/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNXHead-and-shoulders top      11/12/202412/12/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
CTSHBroadening top      12/02/202412/17/2024IT Services
CMCODouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/09/2024Machinery
COTYPipe top      12/02/202412/09/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
CROXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/04/202412/11/2024Shoe
CWPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Machinery
DDSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/11/2024Retail Store
DFSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/29/2024Financial Services
ECLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/06/202412/17/2024Chemical (Specialty)
EIXTriple top      09/04/202411/27/2024Electric Utility (West)
EOGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/07/202411/21/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
EQTPipe top      11/18/202411/25/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
EVHFalling wedge      11/21/202412/19/2024Healthcare Information
EXPIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/18/202411/06/2024E-Commerce
EXPDTriple top      11/25/202412/11/2024Air Transport
FLSTriple top      11/25/202412/12/2024Machinery
FMCThree Falling Peaks      11/26/202412/09/2024Chemical (Basic)
FORMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/31/202411/19/2024Semiconductor
FDPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/12/202412/03/2024Food Processing
FRDDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/02/202412/09/2024Building Materials
ITPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024IT Services
GISDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202412/13/2024Food Processing
GSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/29/2024Securities Brokerage
HIGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/17/202411/27/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HTLDDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/14/202411/25/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HELEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/09/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
HPHead-and-shoulders top      10/14/202411/22/2024Petroleum (Producing)
HSICDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/27/202412/11/2024Medical Supplies
HNIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/12/202411/25/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
HOLXTriple top      11/13/202412/10/2024Medical Supplies
DHIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/04/202411/25/2024Homebuilding
JBHTPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IEXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/06/202411/25/2024Machinery
ITWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/27/2024Metal Fabricating
IBPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/05/202411/26/2024Retail Building Supply
IIINDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/09/202412/17/2024Building Materials
PODDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202412/12/2024Medical Supplies
INTCTriple top      11/14/202412/02/2024Semiconductor
JAZZTriangle, symmetrical      11/13/202412/19/2024Biotechnology
KALUTriple top      11/06/202412/09/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
KBHPipe top      10/14/202410/21/2024Homebuilding
KFRCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/02/202412/11/2024Human Resources
KLACDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202412/18/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LZBTriple top      11/25/202412/18/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
LRCXTriple top      12/04/202412/18/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MHODouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202411/25/2024Homebuilding
MTSIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202412/16/2024Semiconductor
MRTNDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/02/202412/11/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MRCYTriangle, symmetrical      12/09/202412/19/2024Computers and Peripherals
NVDAHead-and-shoulders top      11/08/202412/05/2024Semiconductor
OGEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/12/202411/27/2024Electric Utility (Central)
ORTriangle, descending      09/30/202412/19/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
PANWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/09/202412/17/2024Computer Software and Svcs
QTWOPipe top      12/02/202412/09/2024E-Commerce
RRCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/25/202412/12/2024Petroleum (Producing)
ROKTriple top      11/25/202412/13/2024Diversified Co.
ROGHorn top      11/25/202412/09/2024Electronics
ROLHorn top      11/11/202411/25/2024Industrial Services
RGLDTriple top      10/21/202412/11/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
RDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/14/202411/25/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCHWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/29/202412/12/2024Securities Brokerage
SIGIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202411/29/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SCIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/11/202411/25/2024Industrial Services
SHOPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/06/202412/17/2024E-Commerce
SKYWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/27/2024Air Transport
SCSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/12/202411/25/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
TEVATriple bottom      11/18/202412/13/2024Drug
TXTPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Diversified Co.
TKRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/09/2024Metal Fabricating
TJXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/27/202412/11/2024Retail Store
TSCODouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/08/202412/02/2024Retail Building Supply
TRVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/18/202411/29/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
UGIPipe top      12/02/202412/02/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
VLODouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/04/202411/19/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
VECOFalling wedge      12/02/202412/17/2024Precision Instrument
VEEVPipe top      12/02/202412/09/2024Healthcare Information
MDRXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202412/03/2024Healthcare Information
VRTXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/10/202412/17/2024Biotechnology
VCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/05/2024Electronics
VMCPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Cement and Aggregates
WATTriple top      11/27/202412/11/2024Precision Instrument
WEXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/29/2024Information Services
WPMDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/22/202412/09/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

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Thursday 12/19/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -3.6% or -716.37 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 12 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 4 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 8 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 286/513 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 81/169 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's an old Monty Python saying: "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition."

The markets moved after the FOMC reported their results. You can see what happened at A. I'm glad that yesterday (blog post) I didn't predict how far down price would drop. The Dow industrials were off 1,123 points (2.6%), the Nasdaq was off 716 points or 3.6%, and the S&P was off 178 points or about 3%.

I'm scratching my head over the size of these values. Of course, if the group said lowering interest rates would be fewer next year that the markets would drop. We all knew that, but why so steep? Wasn't the adverse news expected? (I had hoped they'd make no change in next year's guidance).

In my opinion, this is an over-reaction so I expect a fast and furious rebound (I could be wrong, so keep that in mind). This is a Christmas and New Year's present come early. Buy and prosper. A year from now (or even next week), you'll be glad you did, but make up your own mind. To me, this is a bullish buying opportunity, but don't expect the indices to make a full recovery in one day.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ABM, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ALKS, ALL, DOX, AEO, AIG, ANIK, AR, APA, AMAT, ATR, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, BCPC, BECN, BBY, BMRN, BKNG, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CAL, CX, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, COP, CXW, COST, COTY, CRH, CROX, DHR, DVN, FANG, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EG, EZPW, FDS, FDX, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GME, GAP, GIS, GPN, GFS, GL, GMS, GPRO, HBI, HIG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HP, HSIC, HSY, HURC, INFN, NSP, IBKR, TILE, IPG, INTU, JBLU, KMT, LZB, LAMR, LPLA, LXU, MAN, MLM, MTDR, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NWL, NEE, JWN, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, ON, OR, PAYX, PCTY, PETS, PCG, PPL, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RLI, ROG, ROST, RES, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SLGN, STR, LUV, SPSC, TPR, TDY, TPX, TDC, TER, TSCO, TRV, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WLK, WMB, WSM, WOLF, WWD, XEL, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, IGE, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWL, THD, TUR, PPA, PEJ, PJP, XLK, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,886.96    
 Monthly S1  18,639.82  752.87   
 Daily S2  18,793.17  153.35   
 Daily S1  19,092.93  299.76   
 Weekly S2  19,278.25  185.32   
 Weekly S1  19,335.47  57.22   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Low  19,336.59  1.12   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  19,350.74  14.15   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  19,392.69  41.95   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  19,636.35  243.66   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,658.69  22.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  19,698.56  39.88   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  19,755.78  57.22   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,758.18  2.40   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,857.68  99.50   
 Daily R1  19,936.11  78.43   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly R1  20,103.60  167.49   
 Open  20,114.98  11.38   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  20,118.87  3.89   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Open.
 High  20,179.77  60.90   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  20,479.53  299.76   
 Monthly R2  20,814.52  334.99   

Wednesday 12/18/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal is bearish. That's apparent on the chart by the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.

The indicator line, which is the thin blue line visible on portions of the chart, is low, at 4.7. That's bearish. Zero is the lowest the signal can go, so there's a lot of upside (to 100) than downside (0).

I believe the index will drop lower but if the FED announces good news tomorrow (Wednesday) about the future of interest rate cuts, the index could make a nice rise (several hundred points). Right now, though, the market expects a rate cut of a quarter point. It's the comments about next year that will move the market, so stay tuned.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 168 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALKS, AIG, AMN, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, ATO, BCPC, CNC, CENX, CDAY, CF, CHKP, CVX, CI, CLNE, CLF, CNX, CAG, COP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCK, CW, DVN, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, EMN, EBAY, EQT, EG, EXPI, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FRD, GME, GL, GMS, GPRO, HIG, HL, HSIC, HD, HOV, IBKR, TILE, KLIC, LAMR, LXU, MGY, MRTN, MTDR, MCO, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, NEE, JWN, NWPX, OTEX, PKE, PAYX, PFE, PCG, PGR, PEG, QTWO, RRC, RGS, RGA, RLI, ROG, ROL, RGLD, R, SLB, SMG, SRE, NOW, STR, SPSC, SXI, SCS, TPR, TER, TEVA, UIS, UNH, VECO, VEEV, MDRX, WRB, WMB, WWD, XEL, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IHF, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XLF. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/17/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -110.58 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1103 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 521 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 582 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 297/548 or 54.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 55/118 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Volt Information Sciences: VOL (actual trade) .

$ $ $

I released a new pattern call 2-Dance based on the finding of Kevin McDonald.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ALK, AEP, AMN, AAPL, ARCB, ANET, AVNT, BMI, BIO, BRC, CALM, CENX, CLNE, CLF, CNX, CAG, CCK, CTS, XRAY, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, D, EMN, EMR, EFX, EXC, FIS, FLS, FNV, FCX, GME, GPRO, HTLD, HL, HSIC, HD, DHI, HOV, NSP, IBP, IPI, JNJ, KBH, K, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, LH, LEN, M, MAN, MRTN, MTRX, MU, MSFT, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NEU, NEE, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OR, OXM, PKE, PCTY, PETS, PFE, PLXS, POR, PEG, KWR, REGN, RGA, RLI, RGLD, SAND, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SEIC, SKYW, SCCO, SWX, SXI, TPR, TDOC, TER, TDG, TG, UGI, VFC, V, WRB, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYK, IYE, FXI, IYZ, IEV, IXC, MXI, IXN, ILF, IGE, ITB, IHI, EWK, EWH, EWJ, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, PJP, XLY, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLB, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  41,775.23    
 Monthly S1  42,746.36  971.12   
 Weekly S2  43,140.79  394.44   
 Weekly S1  43,429.14  288.34   
 Daily S2  43,520.57  91.44   
 Daily S1  43,619.03  98.45   
 Low  43,686.85  67.82   
 Close  43,717.48  30.63   
 Daily Pivot  43,785.30  67.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  43,787.98  2.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  43,819.21  31.24   
 Open  43,825.76  6.55   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  43,850.45  24.69   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  43,883.76  33.30   
 Monthly Pivot  43,909.99  26.23   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  43,951.58  41.59   
 Daily R2  44,050.04  98.46   
 Weekly Pivot  44,078.82  28.79   
 Weekly R1  44,367.17  288.34   
 Monthly R1  44,881.12  513.95   
 Weekly R2  45,016.85  135.73   
 Monthly R2  46,044.75  1,027.90   

Monday 12/16/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Two red lines hug price and they show an upward price channel.

There seemed to be a second trendline inside the channel. I show that as the green line. I thought it would split the channel in the middle but it slopes downward toward the lower red line.

I look for these types of lines because they often show support or resistance. That's clear as you look at the chart. Notice how the index touches each line and bounces off it (not always, though).

So what does all of this mean going forward? Hard to say. Because the index has dropped shy of the top red line, one could argue that it's a sign of weakness and that the index will drop. It has already started to do that.

It might find support at the green line. It looks to me that the index will continue lower for a time. Eventually, though, I expect to see it make a new high.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 240.59 points.
Tuesday: Down 154.1 points.
Wednesday: Down 99.27 points.
Thursday: Down 234.44 points.
Friday: Down 86.06 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 814.46 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 66.95 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 39.18 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 45,073.63 on 12/04/2024.
     18.1% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 20,061.65 on 12/13/2024.
     37.6% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 6,099.97 on 12/06/2024.
     29.2% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  43,627  43,728  43,891  43,991  44,155 
Weekly  43,178  43,503  44,116  44,441  45,054 
Monthly  41,812  42,820  43,947  44,955  46,082 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,012  6,032  6,055  6,075  6,098 
Weekly  5,995  6,023  6,058  6,086  6,121 
Monthly  5,754  5,903  6,001  6,150  6,248 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  19,691  19,809  19,935  20,053  20,179 
Weekly  19,456  19,691  19,877  20,112  20,297 
Monthly  18,065  18,996  19,529  20,460  20,993 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AMD, ALB, ALGT, AEO, AXP, APH, ARCB, ANET, ASH, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BZH, BERY, BIO, BOOT, CBT, CNP, CENX, CLNE, CLF, CMTL, XRAY, DSGR, ECL, EMR, EXPI, XOM, FCX, GME, GMS, HLIT, HL, HSIC, DHI, HUN, ILMN, IBP, KALU, KBH, KEYS, LEG, LMT, MTRN, MU, MLKN, MS, MOS, NOV, NTAP, NWPX, NVDA, ORI, OLN, OMI, PANW, PATK, PCTY, PETS, PLXS, PHM, DGX, REGN, RGS, ROK, CRM, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SKYW, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TDOC, TER, TEVA, TOL, RIG, UGI, UNM, VMI, WDAY, IYM, IYK, IYC, IYE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, MXI, IXN, SLV, IEO, ITB, EWA, EIS, EWJ, EPP, THD, TUR, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLB, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. IT Services
2. E-Commerce2. Internet
3. IT Services3. E-Commerce
4. Securities Brokerage4. Insurance (Diversified)
5. Financial Services5. Securities Brokerage
6. Insurance (Diversified)6. Machinery
7. Machinery7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Investment Co. (Domestic)9. Financial Services
10. Natural Gas (Diversified)10. Natural Gas (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Semiconductor
51. Chemical (Basic)51. Chemical (Basic)
52. Human Resources52. Petroleum (Integrated)
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Semiconductor54. Medical Services
55. Drug55. Human Resources
56. Petroleum (Producing)56. Biotechnology
57. Medical Services57. Petroleum (Producing)
58. Biotechnology58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Short ETFs59. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
60. Semiconductor Cap Equip.60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/13/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 102 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AEO, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMN, AR, ARCB, ASH, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BRC, CACI, CNC, CENX, CIEN, CI, CLNE, CLF, COTY, DFS, ECL, EFX, FARO, FIS, GME, IT, GPN, GES, DHI, HWM, IBP, IIIN, IPG, INTU, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LEN, LLY, LMT, L, MTRN, MGEE, NFG, NI, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PAYX, PETS, PPG, ROK, SKYW, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SXI, TDOC, TPX, TEVA, TRV, UGI, UPS, VMC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYC, IHE, IYH, MXI, IEO, ITB, EWA, EWK, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWP, TUR, PPA, PBE, PHO, XHB, XLB, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/14/202412/03/2024Electronics
ABTHead-and-shoulders top      10/18/202411/27/2024Medical Supplies
ANFHead-and-shoulders top      11/25/202412/04/2024Apparel
ALBTriangle, ascending      11/11/202412/03/2024Chemical (Diversified)
AADouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/07/202411/26/2024Aerospace/Defense
ARWPipe bottom      11/11/202411/18/2024Electronics
AGODouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/12/202411/25/2024Insurance (Life)
AVNTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/25/2024Chemical (Specialty)
BRCUgly double bottom      11/18/202412/03/2024Chemical (Diversified)
CORDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/29/2024Biotechnology
CIHorn top      09/03/202409/16/2024Medical Services
CTASDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/26/2024Industrial Services
CLXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/22/202412/06/2024Household Products
CRHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/27/202412/05/2024Cement and Aggregates
XRAYUgly double bottom      11/08/202412/10/2024Medical Supplies
EXPBroadening top      10/07/202412/10/2024Cement and Aggregates
ECLMulti-peaks      08/26/202412/12/2024Chemical (Specialty)
FASTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202411/27/2024Retail Building Supply
GPROUgly double bottom      11/20/202412/05/2024Electronics
HETriangle, ascending      11/05/202412/09/2024Electric Utility (West)
HLHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/12/202412/06/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
HDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/26/202412/09/2024Retail Building Supply
IDXXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/31/202411/21/2024Drug
ILMNUgly double bottom      11/19/202412/04/2024Biotechnology
INCYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/27/202412/06/2024Drug
JKHYDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/20/202412/05/2024IT Services
KALUTriple top      11/25/202412/09/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
LANCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/19/202412/06/2024Food Processing
LENDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/05/202411/25/2024Homebuilding
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/202412/12/2024Building Materials
MLMHead-and-shoulders top      10/30/202411/25/2024Cement and Aggregates
MASDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/09/2024Building Materials
NOVTriple top      11/06/202411/25/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUTriangle, descending      11/19/202412/12/2024Chemical (Specialty)
ORCLBroadening top      11/11/202412/09/2024Computer Software and Svcs
OXMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202412/11/2024Apparel
PETSHorn bottom      11/18/202412/02/2024Medical Services
PCGBroadening top      10/15/202412/11/2024Electric Utility (West)
PFGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/11/202411/27/2024Insurance (Diversified)
RHITriangle, symmetrical      11/13/202412/12/2024Human Resources
RCKYTriangle, ascending      11/12/202412/09/2024Shoe
RGLDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/26/202412/06/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SANDBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/22/202412/12/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SXITriangle, ascending      11/11/202412/12/2024Diversified Co.
TECHPipe bottom      11/11/202411/18/2024Biotechnology
TDOCPipe top      11/25/202412/02/2024Healthcare Information
UISDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/08/202412/05/2024Computers and Peripherals
UNHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202412/04/2024Medical Services
VMIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/06/202411/27/2024Metal Fabricating

 

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Thursday 12/12/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.8% or 347.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 68 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 39 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 29 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 286/512 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 81/169 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the trendline as a "best fit" line. That means at A, I sliced through prices, despite how loudly they yelled. Smile

At B, we see weakness in the indices taking stock lower.

At C, the index has climbed up to the trendline...and hit resistance. Ouch! Of course, if you look back to Monday and Tuesday, the index also touched the trendline and turned down. Will this third touch be the one to see price pierce resistance?

We already know the answer (No). The index is heading lower, but it could try again on Thursday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, ACN, ADBE, AA, DOX, AEO, APH, AR, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ASH, ATO, AXS, BZH, BKH, BA, BRC, BCO, CACI, CAL, CENX, CHD, CI, CLX, CNO, COTY, CCRN, CMI, XRAY, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, BOOM, EME, EFX, EG, EVH, EXPD, FDS, FNV, GME, GE, GIS, HIG, HOV, HUBG, NSP, IBKR, IPG, IPI, JBLU, KBH, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LHX, LZB, LH, LEG, LEN, LMT, MHO, MCHX, MCO, MLI, NFLX, NTGR, NOC, NUS, NVDA, OLN, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PCTY, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PPL, PEG, ^GSPC, SAND, SAIC, SKYW, SSYS, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TOL, UGI, UPS, V, VMC, WSO, WU, WLK, WWD, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHE, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IEV, IXN, ITB, EWK, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLP, GLD, XLB, SPY, XLK, XLU, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,586.64    
 Monthly S1  18,810.77  1,224.12   
 Weekly S2  19,110.10  299.33   
 Monthly Pivot  19,336.95  226.86   
 Weekly S1  19,572.49  235.54   
 Weekly Pivot  19,717.82  145.32   
 Daily S2  19,748.53  30.71   
 Low  19,830.64  82.11   
 Open  19,832.96  2.32   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  19,891.71  58.75   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,916.70  24.99   
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,943.29  26.58   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,969.87  26.58   
 Daily Pivot  19,973.82  3.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  20,034.89  61.07   
 High  20,055.93  21.04   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  20,117.00  61.07   
 Weekly R1  20,180.21  63.21   
 Daily R2  20,199.11  18.90   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  20,325.54  126.43   
 Monthly R1  20,561.08  235.54   
 Monthly R2  21,087.26  526.19   

Wednesday 12/11/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish about a week ago, according to this chart. The date of the signal changing is complicated because it can change for up to a week. That means a signal that didn't happen in real time a week ago, suddenly appears as if it signaled back then.

If you don't understand that, it's fine. Regardless, the CPI is bearish and it suggests the markets are going down. Indeed, we see the index rounding over and heading lower.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is the same chart as the prior one except I removed the signal changes. You can see that the CPI peaked about two weeks ago and has been heading lower since.

It moved from bullish to neutral to bearish even as the index climbed for most of that period.

A read of 35 is neutral, so this is bearish at 10.3. With the CPI that low, it usually doesn't stay down long, so maybe we can expect a rebound soon. Of course, 10.3 isn't zero, so look for more weakness before that rebound.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AMD, AFL, ALKS, AEO, AMWD, AMN, AON, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ANET, ASH, AIZ, BCPC, BALL, BBY, BOOT, BG, CRL, CVX, CNA, CNO, CL, CXW, CCK, DVN, ^DJU, D, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EG, FDS, FIS, FORM, FWRD, GME, GAP, GE, GIS, GILD, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, THG, HIG, IPI, ISRG, JNJ, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, MCHX, MLM, MTDR, MRK, MU, MUR, NOV, NTGR, NEU, NEE, ON, PDCO, PCTY, PETS, PFE, POR, PPL, PEG, QCOM, RLI, RHI, ROL, SAIC, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, SKYW, SMAR, SRDX, TDOC, TDY, TER, TOL, RIG, TWLO, UHAL, UGI, UIS, VFC, VECO, WSC, WDAY, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IHE, FDN, ICF, IYH, IGV, SOXX, ITB, EWJ, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, XLP, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLB, XLU, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/10/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.5% or -240.59 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 805 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 409 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 396 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 297/547 or 54.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 55/118 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Vulcan materials: VMC stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AXP, AR, AON, APA, AAPL, ATR, ACGL, ANET, ASH, AIZ, BCPC, BIO, BOOT, BRKR, CAL, CX, CVX, CHD, CLF, CMCO, CMTL, CW, D, BOOM, EQT, EL, XOM, FDS, FICO, FIVN, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FCX, GME, GAP, GPN, GFS, GFF, GES, HQY, HL, HSII, HWM, IDXX, INCY, INFN, IIIN, IBKR, IPG, ISRG, KELYA, LHX, LANC, LMT, LPLA, LXU, MTSI, MGY, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MDT, MRK, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NWPX, NTNX, ORI, OTEX, OR, OMI, PANW, PAYX, PCTY, POR, PFG, RL, RRC, RTX, ROL, RGLD, RES, CRM, SBH, SAND, SLB, SHOP, SCCO, TDOC, TDY, TKR, RIG, TWLO, UHAL, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, V, WSC, WOLF, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IYC, IEZ, FDN, FXI, IYZ, IGV, MXI, ILF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, TUR, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, XLP, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,280.89    
 Monthly S1  42,341.41  2,060.52   
 Monthly Pivot  43,707.52  1,366.11   
 Daily S2  44,158.74  451.22   
 Weekly S2  44,184.60  25.86   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  44,280.34  95.74   
 Weekly S1  44,293.26  12.93   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  44,382.83  89.57   
 Close  44,401.93  19.10   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  44,504.42  102.49   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,514.88  10.46   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,555.67  40.79   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,596.46  40.79   
 Daily R1  44,626.02  29.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  44,637.97  11.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly Pivot  44,683.45  45.48   
 High  44,728.51  45.07   
 Weekly R1  44,792.11  63.60   
 Daily R2  44,850.10  57.99   
 Weekly R2  45,182.30  332.20   
 Monthly R1  45,768.04  585.74   
 Monthly R2  47,134.15  1,366.11   

Monday 12/9/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

There's not a lot to see on the chart, but I have some thoughts.

The chart is on the daily scale of the Nasdaq composite.

The BA combination forms an up-sloping channel. When the index soars above the top of the channel, it broke the shape of the channel.

The index returned to the channel but the lows had curved upward in an exponential race higher, at C. The two red lines narrow in a sort of rising wedge move upward.

Because the index has made such a sharp turn upward, the slope of the move is too steep to continue much longer. Indeed, the CPI has turned bearish, suggesting a bearish retrace is coming.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 128.65 points.
Tuesday: Down 76.47 points.
Wednesday: Up 308.51 points.
Thursday: Down 248.33 points.
Friday: Down 123.19 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 268.13 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 641.6 points or 3.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 57.89 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 45,073.63 on 12/04/2024.
     20.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 19,863.14 on 12/06/2024.
     37.2% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 6,099.97 on 12/06/2024.
     30.1% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  44,394  44,518  44,721  44,845  45,048 
Weekly  44,265  44,454  44,764  44,953  45,262 
Monthly  40,361  42,502  43,788  45,928  47,214 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,070  6,080  6,090  6,100  6,110 
Weekly  6,008  6,049  6,075  6,116  6,141 
Monthly  5,559  5,825  5,962  6,228  6,366 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  19,690  19,775  19,819  19,904  19,948 
Weekly  19,052  19,456  19,659  20,063  20,267 
Monthly  17,528  18,694  19,279  20,444  21,029 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 173 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADBE, AFL, ALK, AA, AFG, AR, APA, APOG, AAPL, ADM, AWI, BALL, BIO, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BCO, CX, CNP, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CL, CAG, CSGP, COST, DVN, DSGR, ^DJI, D, DTE, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EIX, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EVRG, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FMC, FTV, FDP, GME, GIS, GPRO, HBI, HSII, HWM, IDXX, ITW, IPAR, IPG, JAZZ, LANC, LDOS, LMT, LOW, M, MGY, MCHX, MTDR, MTRX, MGEE, MOS, MUR, NOV, NTGR, NWL, NWPX, NTNX, OGE, ORI, OLN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PNW, POR, DGX, RL, RNG, RCKY, ROG, ROL, RGLD, RES, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, SNPS, TGT, TDY, TPX, TSCO, RIG, TREX, UIS, UNH, VLO, VMI, VEEV, MDRX, VRSN, VC, WU, IYM, IYC, IEZ, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, IXN, IEO, EWA, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EPP, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, DBA, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLU, UNG, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. IT Services
2. Internet2. Internet
3. E-Commerce3. Insurance (Diversified)
4. Insurance (Diversified)4. E-Commerce
5. Securities Brokerage5. Securities Brokerage
6. Machinery6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Natural Gas (Diversified)
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Financial Services
9. Financial Services9. Machinery
10. Natural Gas (Diversified)10. Homebuilding
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Semiconductor50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Chemical (Basic)51. Drug
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Semiconductor
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Medical Services54. Biotechnology
55. Human Resources55. Shoe
56. Biotechnology56. Human Resources
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Petroleum (Producing)
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Semiconductor Cap Equip.59. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/6/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, ADTN, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AMWD, AR, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ADM, ANET, AWI, ARW, ATO, AVA, BALL, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, BMY, BBW, CBT, CAL, CPB, CE, CNP, CF, CLX, ED, GLW, CCK, DDS, ^DJI, DOV, BOOM, EQT, EG, EZPW, FDX, FISV, FMC, FTNT, FWRD, GME, GFS, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HON, DHI, JBHT, ITW, IBP, INTC, IPAR, JNJ, KFRC, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, LNC, M, MGY, MTRX, MRCY, META, MSFT, NOVT, ORCL, OR, OMI, PDCO, PTEN, PCTY, PHM, DGX, RNG, RCKY, ROG, ROL, R, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SIGI, STR, LUV, SPSC, TECH, TDY, TPX, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TWLO, UIS, UNH, VECO, VC, WU, WOLF, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, QTEC, FXL, IHF, IEV, MXI, IXN, ILF, ITB, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, TUR, EWU, PEJ, PHO, XLI, XLB, UNG, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

I released a pattern called the 3DC, which is a three-day trend compression pattern. Yes, it's a stinker.

You can find a list of small patterns and their rank here. The page is still under construction with more patterns to come but the results are worth looking at if you like using short patterns (up to 7 price bars long).

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMWDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202411/25/2024Building Materials
ASHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/02/2024Chemical (Basic)
BALLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/14/202411/27/2024Packaging and Container
BAPipe bottom      11/11/202411/18/2024Aerospace/Defense
BRKRPipe bottom      11/11/202411/18/2024Precision Instrument
CBTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/04/2024Chemical (Diversified)
CALDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/04/2024Shoe
CHDDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/22/202412/02/2024Household Products
CCRNPipe bottom      11/11/202411/18/2024Human Resources
FANGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/22/2024Petroleum (Producing)
EMETriangle, symmetrical      11/14/202412/04/2024Industrial Services
FICOTriangle, ascending      11/13/202412/05/2024IT Services
GMSHead-and-shoulders top      11/12/202412/04/2024Cement and Aggregates
HLITUgly double bottom      10/29/202411/19/2024Telecom. Equipment
HUNTriple bottom      11/14/202411/26/2024Chemical (Specialty)
IDADouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/13/202411/25/2024Electric Utility (West)
IRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/06/202411/15/2024Industrial Services
MBroadening top      10/17/202412/02/2024Retail Store
MGYPipe top      11/18/202411/25/2024Petroleum (Producing)
MKTXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/18/202410/30/2024Securities Brokerage
MTRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/03/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
MOSTriple bottom      11/12/202411/26/2024Chemical (Diversified)
MURTriple top      11/12/202411/25/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
NBRPipe top      11/04/202411/11/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NWLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/05/202411/18/2024Household Products
OXYHead-and-shoulders top      11/06/202411/22/2024Petroleum (Producing)
OLNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/25/202412/02/2024Chemical (Basic)
ONDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/02/2024Semiconductor
OMIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/05/202411/21/2024Medical Supplies
PETSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/19/202412/02/2024Medical Services
PINCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/06/202411/25/2024Healthcare Information
RTXTriangle, descending      11/05/202412/04/2024Aerospace/Defense
RGADouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/15/202411/25/2024Insurance (Life)
SLBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/12/202411/25/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
STRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/12/202411/21/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SOHead-and-shoulders top      09/05/202411/27/2024Electric Utility (East)
SRDXRising wedge      10/25/202412/05/2024Medical Supplies
TDOCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202412/02/2024Healthcare Information
TERDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/05/202411/20/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TEVADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/15/202411/29/2024Drug

 

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Thursday 12/5/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.3% or 254.21 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 173 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 111 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 62 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 64.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 286/511 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 81/169 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The measure rule for trendlines says that the move down (B) will mirror the move up (A). You can flip that around, and it suggests the rise at A will precede a fall to B. In this case, notice that B is taller than A. The move from C to the trendline better aligns with what we see at B.

The rise at D says something else about the trend. It is gaining momentum. I think that applies to lines drawn using linear regression (a way to draw a line between points so they are all have a minimum distance from the line). I did not use linear regression on this chart. When price rises above the line, momentum is increasing. When it's heading toward the line, momentum is falling.

If we use the measure rule, then look for the index to drop below the line by about 200 points.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, AES, ATSG, ALRM, AMZN, AMED, AMWD, AMN, APH, AR, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ATO, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BRKR, CBT, CDNS, CPB, CE, CLS, CX, CF, CI, ED, COTY, CR, CCRN, CCK, BOOM, ECL, ELV, EQT, EG, XOM, FIS, FTNT, GME, GIS, GFS, GL, GOOGL, HL, HSII, HUBG, IBP, INTC, IPI, JBLU, JNJ, KLIC, LZB, LH, LDOS, LLY, LMT, MTSI, MGY, META, MSFT, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NWL, OLN, OMC, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PHM, PSTG, RMBS, RTX, RNG, ROL, ROP, ^GSPC, SLB, SEIC, STR, SMAR, LUV, SPSC, SNPS, TECH, TOL, TDG, RIG, TWLO, UIS, VLO, VMI, MDRX, WEX, WSC, WOLF, WWD, IYK, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, IYZ, IGV, IXN, SOXX, EWO, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, DBA, PXJ, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLF, XRT, SPY, XLK, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,779.59    
 Monthly S1  18,757.36  977.76   
 Weekly S2  18,997.65  240.29   
 Monthly Pivot  19,061.71  64.07   
 Weekly Pivot  19,305.94  244.22   
 Weekly S1  19,366.38  60.45   
 Daily S2  19,517.73  151.35   
 Low  19,575.40  57.67   
 Open  19,587.48  12.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly R2  19,614.23  26.75   
 Daily S1  19,626.43  12.20   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,638.95  12.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,658.58  19.63   
 Weekly R1  19,674.67  16.09   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,678.21  3.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily Pivot  19,684.09  5.88   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  19,735.12  51.03   
 High  19,741.76  6.64   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  19,792.79  51.03   
 Daily R2  19,850.45  57.67   
 Monthly R1  20,039.48  189.02   
 Monthly R2  20,343.83  304.36   

Wednesday 12/4/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal is green, which is bullish. There's no change from last week except that the thin blue indicator line has rounded over and is heading lower.

Look at the index. It continues to rise even as the indicator drops. Uh-oh. That's bearish divergence. It suggests, but does not guarantee, that the index will follow the CPI lower.

I recently switched my targets (top of page) from up to down, based on weakness I saw in the price trend. I think it'll be a short retrace before a resumption of the upward move, but today's CPI chart seems to confirm my reasoning of a weakening general market.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, ATSG, ALB, AR, ADM, ASH, ADP, AVNT, AVA, BBY, BAH, BCO, BG, CE, CNP, CENX, CHD, CI, CL, CR, ^DJU, ^DJT, BOOM, EMN, ELV, EQT, EVH, EZPW, FARO, FMC, FNV, FRD, GME, GIS, HL, HSII, HOLX, HUBG, HURC, IEX, INFN, INTC, IRM, JNJ, K, KELYA, LZB, LXU, MTSI, M, MGY, MAN, MCHX, MTRN, MGEE, MOS, NWL, NEE, NVDA, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKE, PAYX, PCG, PPG, PINC, PFG, PHM, PSTG, RTX, RNG, ROL, R, SAND, SAIC, SIGI, SLGN, SKX, SKYW, LUV, SXI, TDOC, TXT, TWLO, UPS, UNH, VLO, VMI, VMC, WU, WLK, WEX, IYM, FXI, ICF, IHF, IYZ, MXI, IXN, IHI, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, THD, TUR, EWU, IBB, DBA, PJP, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/3/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -128.65 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1100 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 521 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 579 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 297/547 or 54.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/117 or 46.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Walmart: WMT stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AKAM, AA, ALKS, AMZN, AMN, AR, ANET, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BSET, BA, BSX, BCO, BRKR, BBW, CPB, CE, CNC, CRL, CINF, CLF, CTSH, CMTL, CAG, COP, CR, CCRN, FANG, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, DTE, EIX, EQT, EZPW, FFIV, FMC, FTNT, GME, GAP, GIS, GILD, GPN, GL, THG, HSIC, HSY, HOV, HWM, HUBG, INCY, IBP, IPAR, IPG, JBLU, LEG, LDOS, RAMP, L, MTSI, MTDR, MRK, META, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NEE, NWPX, OMC, ON, ORCL, OR, OMI, PKG, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PETS, PNW, PFG, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RTX, RNG, RLI, RCKY, ROL, RGLD, R, SAIA, SRE, SCI, STR, SMAR, SO, LUV, SCS, TRGP, TECH, TDOC, TDY, TXT, TMO, TZOO, TG, TWLO, UPS, UNH, VRSN, VMC, WAT, WMB, WOLF, IYC, IYE, IHE, QTEC, ICF, IYZ, IHI, EIS, EWJ, EWT, PPA, DBA, PBE, PJP, XLY, XAR, XLK, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,409.14    
 Monthly S1  42,595.57  2,186.43   
 Monthly Pivot  43,833.43  1,237.86   
 Weekly S2  44,060.46  227.03   
 Weekly S1  44,421.23  360.77   
 Daily S2  44,539.77  118.54   
 Daily S1  44,660.89  121.11   
 Low  44,710.16  49.27   
 Weekly Pivot  44,746.26  36.10   
 Close  44,782.00  35.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,821.51  39.51   
 Daily Pivot  44,831.27  9.76   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,855.91  24.64   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,890.31  34.40   
 Open  44,925.86  35.55   
 Daily R1  44,952.39  26.53   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  45,001.66  49.27   
 Weekly R1  45,107.03  105.37   
 Daily R2  45,122.77  15.74   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  45,432.06  309.29   
 Monthly R1  46,019.86  587.80   
 Monthly R2  47,257.72  1,237.86   

Monday 12/2/24. 2024 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APD, ATSG, ANET, AWI, ARW, AVY, BAX, BA, BFH, BCO, BRKR, BBW, CPB, CNC, CVX, CINF, CLF, CNO, CAG, COTY, CCRN, DTE, EBAY, EIX, EXPI, FMC, GME, GIS, GL, HSIC, HON, HOV, ITW, INCY, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IPG, JBLU, K, KELYA, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, L, MRK, MLKN, MUR, NUS, OMC, ON, OUT, PTEN, PAYX, PEN, PNW, PFG, RJF, RGS, RGA, RNG, RCKY, ROL, ROP, SRE, SCI, SMAR, SO, SSYS, TECH, TFX, TZOO, VFC, VECO, VRTX, WAT, WU, WEX, WOLF, IYM, IYK, ICF, ILF, SLV, EWG, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, DBA, PBE, ROBO, XLP, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

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