As of 11/27/2024
Indus: 44,722 -138.25 -0.3%
Trans: 17,609 -88.01 -0.5%
Utils: 1,079 -0.58 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 19,060 -113.82 -0.6%
S&P 500: 5,999 -22.89 -0.4%
|
YTD
+18.7%
+10.8%
+22.4%
+27.0%
+25.8%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/27/2024
Indus: 44,722 -138.25 -0.3%
Trans: 17,609 -88.01 -0.5%
Utils: 1,079 -0.58 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 19,060 -113.82 -0.6%
S&P 500: 5,999 -22.89 -0.4%
|
YTD
+18.7%
+10.8%
+22.4%
+27.0%
+25.8%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on October 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI remains bearish with a reading heading toward 0. I remarked yesterday (Wednesday) that the indicator usually bounces off a low value and moves higher quickly. However, we may be in for a retrace because we've pierced some underlying support in the market indices.
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
The forecast has been way off the mark this year. The forecast gain is predicted to be 6%, which would mean a drop from the present level. However, the forecast is for strength going into the end of the year.
This is the Nasdaq.
The Nasdaq is performing almost three times as well as forecast.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
The S&P 500 index is also doing very well this year compared to the forecast..
Here's the updated Dow Industrials 10-year forecast.
If the forecast is correct, you should be able to double your money in 10 years by investing in Dow stocks or market related ETFs.
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