Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/25/2020
  Indus: 27,174 +358.52 +1.3%  
  Trans: 11,270 +152.52 +1.4%  
  Utils: 808 +12.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 10,914 +241.29 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,298 +51.87 +1.6%  
YTD
-4.8%  
 +3.4%  
-8.1%  
 +21.6%  
 +2.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow28,650 or 26,000 by 10/15/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20
As of 09/25/2020
  Indus: 27,174 +358.52 +1.3%  
  Trans: 11,270 +152.52 +1.4%  
  Utils: 808 +12.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 10,914 +241.29 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,298 +51.87 +1.6%  
YTD
-4.8%  
 +3.4%  
-8.1%  
 +21.6%  
 +2.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow28,650 or 26,000 by 10/15/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20

 

August 2020 Headlines

Archives


Monday 8/31/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

This chart resembles the chart of the Dow transports a week ago.

There's a flag pattern at C, sitting atop a flagpole which ran from A to B. A nice straight-line run up, in fact...

The index is climbing to D. If you measure the rise from A to B and add it to the low at C, you can get an estimate of where D will be.

In this case, that's 29,800 or about 1,200 points above where the index is now.

That sounds like a tall order to me. I don't know if it'll climb that far.

EF forms a double bottom which confirms when the index closes above the blue line, G. That happens and the index retraces for a period (a throwback to A) before resuming the upward move in earnest.

What I'm saying is that the index should continue higher over the next week.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 378.13 points.
Tuesday: Down 60.02 points.
Wednesday: Up 83.48 points.
Thursday: Up 160.35 points.
Friday: Up 161.6 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 723.54 points or 2.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 383.83 points or 3.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 110.85 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.1% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     57.3% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 11,730.01 on 08/27/2020.
     76.4% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 3,509.23 on 08/28/2020.
     60.0% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,380  28,517  28,625  28,762  28,870 
Weekly  27,785  28,219  28,476  28,911  29,168 
Monthly  25,052  26,853  27,793  29,594  30,534 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,476  3,492  3,501  3,517  3,525 
Weekly  3,381  3,444  3,477  3,540  3,573 
Monthly  3,097  3,302  3,406  3,611  3,715 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,606  11,651  11,680  11,725  11,754 
Weekly  11,142  11,419  11,574  11,851  12,007 
Monthly  9,702  10,699  11,214  12,211  12,727 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 95 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ATSG, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEE, AEO, AIG, AAPL, ATR, ARW, ASH, ATO, BLL, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CPB, ED, CSOD, CRH, CCK, EXP, EBAY, EL, FMC, FORM, FCX, FRD, GIS, JBHT, IEX, IPI, IVC, JCOM, JNJ, K, LHX, LNC, LOW, MANH, MSFT, MOS, MLI, NOV, PCG, PINC, PGR, PEG, RL, ROK, ROG, SAIA, SIGI, SSYS, TDOC, TSCO, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VMC, WSM, WDAY, IYM, IDU, ICF, IYZ, EWO, EWZ, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, GLD, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Computers and Peripherals
2. Computers and Peripherals2. Retail Building Supply
3. Internet3. Healthcare Information
4. E-Commerce4. Semiconductor
5. Retail Building Supply5. Internet
6. Air Transport6. Precision Instrument
7. Computer Software and Svcs7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Household Products
9. Telecom. Equipment9. Telecom. Equipment
10. Healthcare Information10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Aerospace/Defense
51. Apparel51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Natural Gas (Distributor)53. Natural Gas (Distributor)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Petroleum (Integrated)
55. Advertising55. Apparel
56. Insurance (Life)56. Advertising
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Insurance (Life)
58. Short ETFs58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
59. Petroleum (Producing)59. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/28/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AYI, ATSG, ALKS, ADS, AEE, AFG, APH, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ADSK, AXS, BLL, BECN, BKNG, BRKS, CDNS, CPB, CF, CIEN, CSCO, CLF, CGNX, COTY, CREE, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EBAY, EMR, EZPW, FDS, FFG, FEYE, FLEX, FLIR, GIS, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, HOLX, HOV, JBHT, IEX, ITGR, IPI, JCOM, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KLAC, LAWS, LLY, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MAS, MLHR, NTAP, NKE, NI, OXY, OMC, OMI, PDCO, PYPL, PRFT, PLXS, POR, PINC, PG, KWR, DGX, RJF, ROG, RES, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SSYS, TECH, TPX, TOL, TSCO, TREX, WRB, WAT, WSO, ZBRA, ZBRA, IYK, DDM, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, XLP, XLF, XLB, XRT, SMH. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 4.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/11/202008/25/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AMGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/11/202008/24/2020Biotechnology
APOGBroadening bottom      07/02/202008/26/2020Building Materials
CRLTriangle, symmetrical      08/11/202008/27/2020Biotechnology
CHSRectangle bottom      06/11/202008/27/2020Apparel
CLGXFalling wedge      07/23/202008/27/2020Information Services
^DJTFlag      08/12/202008/21/2020None
ETFCTriangle, ascending      07/09/202008/27/2020Securities Brokerage
FBScallop, ascending      08/07/202008/26/2020E-Commerce
FISVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/20/202008/24/2020IT Services
GSTriangle, symmetrical      06/26/202008/27/2020Securities Brokerage
HOVFlag      08/20/202008/27/2020Homebuilding
IBPRectangle top      08/10/202008/27/2020Retail Building Supply
RAMPDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/18/202008/21/2020Computer Software and Svcs
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202008/27/2020Electric Utility (Central)
MSFTRoof, inverted      07/09/202008/25/2020Computer Software and Svcs
PCGRectangle bottom      07/13/202008/27/2020Electric Utility (West)
PICOTriangle, ascending      05/14/202008/27/2020Diversified Co.
PINCPipe top      08/10/202008/17/2020Healthcare Information
TPXRectangle top      08/07/202008/27/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
TMOBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/22/202008/27/2020Precision Instrument
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      08/10/202008/27/2020Air Transport
WWWTriangle, ascending      08/05/202008/27/2020Shoe
IHIRectangle top      07/27/202008/25/2020Medical Supplies

 


Thursday 8/27/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.7% or 198.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 85 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 54 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 31 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/349 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red line in three segments following price bottoms. Notice how the curve is bending upward. I wouldn't call it an exponential curve but it might develop into one. Right now, though, it's just a gentle turn.

At the top end of the index is a broadening top chart pattern, shown here in blue. The top slopes upward and the bottom slopes downward with at least five trendline touches of the two trendlines (total). It's a small pattern but it's there.

Those patterns breakout upward 60% of the time which isn't really much above random. Still, that's the way to bet, especially with the index on a tear. But it's Thursday and that means another chance to scare the market with employment numbers.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 38 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALKS, AGO, ATO, BLL, BKNG, BRC, CHS, EZPW, JBHT, IDXX, IPI, MTRX, NFLX, NJR, OUT, PYPL, PINC, PG, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SCS, TECH, WDAY, EWC, ECH, EWM, EWL, PXJ, XLB. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,960.63    
 Monthly S1  10,812.84  852.22   
 Monthly Pivot  11,069.53  256.68   
 Weekly S2  11,111.72  42.19   
 Weekly Pivot  11,357.30  245.58   
 Weekly S1  11,388.39  31.09   
 Daily S2  11,450.27  61.88   
 Low  11,507.46  57.19   
 Open  11,516.62  9.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  11,557.66  41.04   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,570.33  12.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,589.75  19.42   
 Weekly R2  11,602.88  13.13   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,609.18  6.30   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily Pivot  11,614.86  5.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  11,633.97  19.11   
 Close  11,665.06  31.09   
 High  11,672.05  6.99   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  11,722.25  50.20   
 Daily R2  11,779.45  57.19   
 Monthly R1  11,921.74  142.30   
 Monthly R2  12,178.43  256.68   

Wednesday 8/26/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

Before I describe the CPI, I want you to know that below I've started including daily patterns found by Patternz and a link to small patterns, too. Click the associated links to be taken to the pattern's you seek. Maybe a stock you own shows a pattern that you've missed.

$ $ $

Above is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator still shows a bearish turn in the index, as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows.

It's been around long enough that it's not going to disappear (which can happen for 7 calendar days). The kicker is, the market is ignoring the signal, at least so far. If you look back to January, a similar signal occurred, so maybe we're looking at the indicator turning back green in a few days.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 47%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The more sensitive red line has improved slightly from a week ago. It contradicts what the prior chart shows. However, as I explained, the CPI may turn green (bullish) in a few days, and the markets will continue higher.

However, maybe Thursday's employment news will send jitters into the markets. I guess anything can happen, but I think the charts are pointing to a continued rise.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 29 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ALKS, BLL, BKNG, BBW, CHS, EIGI, XOM, EZPW, FORM, GPS, IPI, KLAC, MSFT, NKE, NUS, OMI, POR, PINC, PG, ROG, SMG, IYM, ECH, EWH, XLB. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/25/20. Top 10 Best Performing Chart Patterns!

The index climbed by 1.4% or 378.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 210 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 122 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 88 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 212/365 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I recently completed a project which updated my research on chart patterns. I'll be updating the website soon to reflect that research.

Here's the top 10 best performing chart patterns in bull markets with upward breakouts on the daily scale. A rank of 1 is best out of 39 chart patterns.

I measured performance from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate high. The ultimate high is the highest high before price drops at least 20% or it's the highest high before price closes below the bottom of the chart pattern.

Failures are a percentage of how many chart patterns failed to see price rise more than 5% after the breakout.

For the complete list of chart patterns, sorted by performance, click here and by failure rate, click here.

Patterns with Update Breakouts, Bull Market
RankPattern NameFailure Rank
1 (best)Bump-and-run reversal bottom6
2Rounding top4
3Cup with handle2
4Rectangle top24
5Eve & Eve double bottom13
6Three rising valleys8
7Rounding bottom2
8Rectangle bottom18
9 (tie)Head-and-shoulders bottom, complex3
9 (tie)Scallop, descending and inverted25

This is a table of the top 11 performing chart patterns out of 36, based on downward breakouts in bull markets, on the daily scale. I measured performance from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate low. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price climbs at least 20% or it's the lowest low before price closes above the top of the chart pattern.

Patterns with Downward Breakouts, Bull Market
RankPattern NameFailure Rank
1 (best)Diamond bottom5
2V top, extended3
3 (tie)Rounded top12
3 (tie)Diamond top3
3 (tie)Bump and reversal top1 (best)
6Cup with handle inverted7
7Head-and-shoulders top, complex9
8Big M2
9Head-and-shoulders top10
10 (tie)Scallop descending and inverted6
10 (tie)Double top, Adam & Eve13

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 38 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, AGO, BLL, BIO, CAL, CENX, CHS, CINF, EFX, FEYE, FORM, HSC, JBHT, TILE, NBR, NWL, NKE, OLN, OMI, PDLI, PFG, PG, SMG, SKX, SWX, STMP, SCS, RIG, TZOO, WERN, EWH, IBB. Clink this link for details on patterns in those symbols.

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,322.61    
 Monthly S1  26,815.53  1,492.93   
 Weekly S2  27,471.28  655.75   
 Monthly Pivot  27,485.21  13.93   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  27,889.87  404.66   
 Weekly Pivot  27,944.84  54.97   
 Daily S2  27,948.53  3.69   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  28,041.75  93.22   
 Open  28,077.58  35.83   
 Daily S1  28,128.49  50.91   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,146.11  17.62   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,178.35  32.24   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,210.58  32.24   
 Daily Pivot  28,221.72  11.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  28,308.46  86.74   
 High  28,314.94  6.48   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  28,363.43  48.49   
 Daily R1  28,401.68  38.25   
 Weekly R2  28,418.40  16.72   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  28,494.91  76.51   
 Monthly R1  28,978.13  483.23   
 Monthly R2  29,647.81  669.67   

Monday 8/24/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily chart.

This is an interesting picture but maybe only I think so. Smiley

A strong push higher started at A and it peaked at B. The two parallel red lines outline a flag pattern. Don't confuse this with a flag, high and tight.

Anyway, if we consider that the flag appears midway in the uptrend (and it does, but not all of the time. I'd have to look up the exact percentage and I just tucked into bed my other computer), then there's a good move still ahead.

How far?

I'm eyeballing this on the chart, but A looks to be at 9700 and B is at 11,000. The low at C is about 10,700 giving a target of (11,000 - 9700) + 10,700 or 12,000.

Let's be conservative and call it 11,500 and that's if the flag breaks out upward.

$ $ $

Chris Constandse suggested that I list the chart patterns in this post instead of just the total. I implemented that today and you'll see a link below to the text file. Over the past month, I found 124 chart patterns. I'll be changing Friday's list to a separate page like this one, which speeds load times when the list is long.

Thanks for suggesting the idea, Chris!

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 86.11 points.
Tuesday: Down 66.84 points.
Wednesday: Down 85.19 points.
Thursday: Up 46.85 points.
Friday: Up 190.6 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 0.69 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 292.5 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 24.31 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     53.3% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 11,326.21 on 08/21/2020.
     70.6% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 3,399.96 on 08/21/2020.
     55.0% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,586  27,758  27,859  28,031  28,132 
Weekly  27,345  27,638  27,819  28,111  28,292 
Monthly  25,197  26,563  27,359  28,726  29,522 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,371  3,384  3,392  3,405  3,413 
Weekly  3,339  3,368  3,384  3,413  3,429 
Monthly  3,132  3,265  3,332  3,465  3,532 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,214  11,263  11,294  11,344  11,375 
Weekly  10,994  11,153  11,240  11,398  11,485 
Monthly  9,843  10,577  10,952  11,686  12,061 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

For a list of 124 chart patterns found in the last month, click here.

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Computers and Peripherals1. Semiconductor
2. Retail Building Supply2. Retail Building Supply
3. Healthcare Information3. Healthcare Information
4. Semiconductor4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Internet5. Internet

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/21/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz. It has some bug fixes but also some improvements that people have asked for, such as 3 new data vendors, all of which you probably should not use. See this link for a comparison of the data vendors. Tiingo and Yahoo remain the best choices.

If you have problems installing the new version over an existing one, then use the patternz.exe program included in the zip file. Replace your existing one with the new one.

Also, this version saves the form location and size. If you flub this somehow (a form becomes invisible), go to the Main form. Select the menu's Help button then Restore Layout to return the form's sizes to their factory defaults.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXSPennant      08/11/202008/20/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BSETFlag, high and tight      06/25/202008/20/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
BMRNDead-cat bounce      08/19/202008/19/2020Biotechnology
CTSFlag      08/13/202008/19/2020Electronics
HOVScallop, ascending      06/09/202008/18/2020Homebuilding
LAMRPennant      08/13/202008/20/2020Advertising
MADiamond top      08/06/202008/14/2020Financial Services
PICOTriangle, ascending      05/14/202008/20/2020Diversified Co.
SWXPipe top      08/03/202008/10/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
RIGDead-cat bounce      08/20/202008/20/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VRectangle top      05/18/202008/19/2020Financial Services
IHIRectangle top      07/27/202008/19/2020Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/13/2020 and 08/20/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $45.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.04 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.42%
Volume: 1,000,500 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/11/2020 to 08/20/2020
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 144 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $11.57
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.58 or 17.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.64%
Volume: 164,400 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/25/2020 to 08/20/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $74.85
1 Month avg volatility: $3.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $83.97 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.47%
Volume: 7,284,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,330,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/19/2020 to 08/19/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $21.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.72 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.52%
Volume: 97,200 shares. 3 month avg: 73,662 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/13/2020 to 08/19/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $33.50
1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.90 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 60.52%
Volume: 109,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 08/18/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 472 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $67.37
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.60 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.52%
Volume: 360,100 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/13/2020 to 08/20/2020
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Mastercard Inc (MA)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $337.32
1 Month avg volatility: $6.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $350.31 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.97%
Volume: 2,964,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/06/2020 to 08/14/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $8.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.15 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.95%
Volume: 30,500 shares. 3 month avg: 140,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/14/2020 to 08/20/2020
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $65.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.46 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.40%
Volume: 263,300 shares. 3 month avg: 213,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/03/2020 to 08/10/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $1.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.25 or 41.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -76.89%
Volume: 66,068,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/20/2020 to 08/20/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Visa (V)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $204.15
1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $192.06 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.65%
Volume: 8,802,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/18/2020 to 08/19/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 579
8/20/20 close: $294.15
1 Month avg volatility: $3.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $285.09 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.29%
Volume: 145,200 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/19/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Thursday 8/20/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -64.38 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 317 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 141 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 176 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 195/348 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This pic is similar to the one on August 10. In this chart, the index followed the channel in red until it didn't. Price broke out downward today (Wednesday).

In fact, the chart pattern indicator turned bearish today, too, with a reading of 19.1 well below the 35 minimum for bearish signals.

As bad as that looks, the blue line shows support, setup by two peaks. Will the index reach the blue line and turn? My answer is yes (it has already reached it). That's based on the behavior of a measured move down chart pattern, which formed the drop out of the red channel. It predicts a return to the corrective phase. So that means an up move on Thursday, at least for a time. After that? Who knows.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,874.74    
 Monthly S1  10,510.60  635.86   
 Weekly S2  10,649.20  138.60   
 Monthly Pivot  10,818.32  169.12   
 Weekly S1  10,897.83  79.51   
 Weekly Pivot  11,011.34  113.51   
 Daily S2  11,053.34  42.00   
 Daily S1  11,099.90  46.56   
 Low  11,132.10  32.20   
 Close  11,146.46  14.36   
 Daily Pivot  11,178.66  32.20   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,179.97  1.31   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,194.76  14.79   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,209.55  14.79   
 Open  11,214.80  5.25   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  11,225.22  10.42   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  11,257.42  32.20   
 Weekly R1  11,259.97  2.55   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  11,303.98  44.01   
 Weekly R2  11,373.48  69.50   
 Monthly R1  11,454.18  80.70   
 Monthly R2  11,761.90  307.72   

Wednesday 8/19/20. Indicators Turning Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew two lines, in red, along the peaks to highlight bearish divergence. That happens when the indicator turns down but price continues rising.

It's best if you compare peaks to peaks, as I have in this case.

The CPI at the bottom of the chart shows the right peak lower than the left one. The index at the top of the chart continues to make new highs.

They theory is that the index will follow the indicator downward sooner or later. That's not always true because the last time this happened, the index ignored the divergence (or perhaps the CPI rebounded which it can do in a signal switch for 7 days. So maybe the CPI line started to converge and not diverge).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 47% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

This chart shows a more subtle version of bearish divergence. No peaks to compare.

However, I circled the two areas of interest, in red. The red indicator line is the more sensitive of the two lines (between the red and blue ones, that is). It shows weakness.

The index is flat to slightly up over the same period. So that's more divergence.

The prior chart shows the CPI diving for ground. That's certainly weakness shown even if the divergence doesn't pan out. This chart is also bearish, but not alarmingly so. That's no surprise because the red and blue lines are lagging indicators or even coincident ones. They move almost in lock-step with the index.

Bottom line: A warning of weakness to come.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/18/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Dow Chemical

The index dropped by -0.3% or -86.11 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1055 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 497 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 558 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/364 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Dow Chemical stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,695.05    
 Monthly S1  26,269.98  1,574.93   
 Weekly S2  27,162.66  892.68   
 Monthly Pivot  27,212.43  49.77   
 Weekly S1  27,503.79  291.36   
 Daily S2  27,703.63  199.84   
 Daily S1  27,774.27  70.64   
 Low  27,816.40  42.13   
 Weekly Pivot  27,829.33  12.93   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  27,844.91  15.58   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,886.46  41.55   
 Daily Pivot  27,887.04  0.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,908.11  21.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,929.75  21.64   
 Daily R1  27,957.68  27.93   
 Open  27,970.05  12.37   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  27,999.81  29.76   
 Daily R2  28,070.45  70.64   
 Weekly R1  28,170.46  100.01   
 Weekly R2  28,496.00  325.55   
 Monthly R1  28,787.36  291.36   
 Monthly R2  29,729.81  942.45   

Monday 8/17/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This turned into an interesting picture when I connected the minor highs with a trendline and the minor lows with another.

The peaks formed nearly a straight line. My original thought was to show how the index has bumped up against a ceiling of resistance. For the last month, it's been riding along the top of that ceiling looking for a way upward.

I think it'll find it.

Along the valleys, I thought of drawing a line connecting the two bottoms in May and June, but decided to use the April valley as the first touch. That worked out well and it shows a chart pattern called an ascending triangle.

Those breakout upward 63% of the time.

If you look closely at the end of the index, it seems to curl downward which might suggest weakness. That could suggest a drop to the bottom of the triangle, but I still think it'll move higher.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 357.96 points.
Tuesday: Down 104.53 points.
Wednesday: Up 289.93 points.
Thursday: Down 80.12 points.
Friday: Up 34.3 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 497.54 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 8.32 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 21.57 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     53.4% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 11,126.04 on 08/07/2020.
     66.2% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     53.9% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,671  27,801  27,889  28,019  28,108 
Weekly  27,191  27,561  27,858  28,228  28,525 
Monthly  24,724  26,327  27,241  28,845  29,759 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,354  3,363  3,371  3,380  3,388 
Weekly  3,301  3,337  3,362  3,398  3,424 
Monthly  3,036  3,204  3,296  3,465  3,556 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,930  10,975  11,017  11,061  11,103 
Weekly  10,607  10,813  10,969  11,175  11,331 
Monthly  9,832  10,426  10,776  11,369  11,720 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.3%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 17.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.0%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks up 29.4%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 14.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
22Triangle, symmetrical
17Pipe bottom
14Head-and-shoulders bottom
9Flag, high and tight
7Triangle, ascending
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Broadening top
5Big W
5Diamond top
4Rectangle bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Retail Building Supply2. Healthcare Information
3. Healthcare Information3. Retail Building Supply
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Internet
5. Internet5. Computers and Peripherals

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/14/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 15 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Diversified Co.
ANFDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      07/20/202008/07/2020Apparel
ALKScallop, ascending      07/23/202008/11/2020Air Transport
ALBPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Chemical (Diversified)
AYXDead-cat bounce      08/07/202008/07/2020Computer Software and Svcs
BSETRising wedge      07/08/202008/12/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
CALPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Shoe
CPBRectangle bottom      06/16/202008/11/2020Food Processing
CLFPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
COTYPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
CRPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Diversified Co.
FEYEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/29/202008/10/2020Computer Software and Svcs
FLSPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Machinery
IIINTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/202008/13/2020Building Materials
KALUPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
LXUFlag, high and tight      07/10/202008/13/2020Building Materials
NITriangle, symmetrical      07/22/202008/13/2020Electric Utility (Central)
ORIPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PNWTriple top      07/23/202008/11/2020Electric Utility (West)
DGXHorn top      07/20/202008/03/2020Medical Services
RHIPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Human Resources
SAIAPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SOTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/202008/13/2020Electric Utility (East)
LUVPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Air Transport
SXIPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Diversified Co.
SRDXDiamond top      07/27/202008/12/2020Medical Supplies
TRVPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VRectangle top      05/18/202008/13/2020Financial Services
VMCPipe bottom      07/27/202008/03/2020Cement and Aggregates

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/06/2020 and 08/13/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $165.86
1 Month avg volatility: $2.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.29 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.99%
Volume: 2,853,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,950,578 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $10.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.53 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -38.11%
Volume: 1,433,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,821,334 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 08/07/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $37.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.41 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.22%
Volume: 1,795,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 07/23/2020 to 08/11/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Albemarle Corp. (ALB)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $91.60
1 Month avg volatility: $2.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.25 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.41%
Volume: 987,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,363,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Alteryx, Inc (AYX)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $110.34
1 Month avg volatility: $7.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $125.88 or 14.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.26%
Volume: 2,503,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/07/2020 to 08/07/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $9.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.26 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.08%
Volume: 77,400 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/08/2020 to 08/12/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $7.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.27 or 14.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -68.97%
Volume: 697,000 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/14/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/14/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $51.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.17 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.56%
Volume: 864,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/11/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $5.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.33 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.69%
Volume: 8,204,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $4.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.71 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -63.47%
Volume: 4,141,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $61.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.48 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.37%
Volume: 147,800 shares. 3 month avg: 293,374 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

FireEye Inc (FEYE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 276 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $14.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.30 or 9.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.22%
Volume: 5,020,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,815,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/29/2020 to 08/10/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $31.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.48 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.09%
Volume: 1,211,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $18.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.77 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.19%
Volume: 87,500 shares. 3 month avg: 163,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 08/13/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $67.22
1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.11 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.38%
Volume: 79,600 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $1.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.32 or 31.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.81%
Volume: 1,083,600 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/10/2020 to 08/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Nisource Inc. (NI)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $24.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.03 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.54%
Volume: 2,310,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,389,146 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/22/2020 to 08/13/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Old Republic International Corp (ORI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $16.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.63 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.35%
Volume: 1,116,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $78.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.03 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.72%
Volume: 1,415,400 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/23/2020 to 08/11/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $121.75
1 Month avg volatility: $3.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.91 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.01%
Volume: 649,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 7%.
Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 295 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $56.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.90 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.70%
Volume: 775,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 33 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $130.74
1 Month avg volatility: $4.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.05 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.40%
Volume: 215,600 shares. 3 month avg: 163,825 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $55.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.18 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.64%
Volume: 3,913,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/13/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 537 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $34.71
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.14 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -35.70%
Volume: 8,378,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,071,869 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $60.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.74 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.12%
Volume: 33,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Surmodics, Inc (SRDX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 80 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $47.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.09 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.39%
Volume: 43,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/12/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Travelers Companies Inc, The (TRV)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $119.27
1 Month avg volatility: $2.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.74 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.91%
Volume: 896,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,525,757 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Visa (V)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $197.58
1 Month avg volatility: $3.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $189.39 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.15%
Volume: 6,946,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/18/2020 to 08/13/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 59
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 579
8/13/20 close: $129.64
1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.37 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.97%
Volume: 458,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 8/13/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.1% or 229.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 52 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 31 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 21 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 59.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 194/347 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I know I tried this before, recently, but don't think I checked to see how it worked. Anyway, look at the rectangle bottom, which is the pattern outlined by the two horizontal red lines at AB.

At B, the pattern broke out downward. At C, it busted the downward breakout. Usually what follows is a robust move higher. But not this time. Hmm.

Here's what I was referring to. Notice how far down the index dropped below the bottom trendline at B. If we take that drop, we can add it to the top of the rectangle to balance out that drop. That would put it close to 11,100.

It's a variation of the trendline measure rule. So far, the index hasn't climbed far enough yet. So maybe we're due for a higher move.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,830.00    
 Monthly S1  10,421.12  591.12   
 Weekly S2  10,694.92  273.80   
 Monthly Pivot  10,773.58  78.66   
 Daily S2  10,815.81  42.23   
 Weekly S1  10,853.58  37.77   
 Low  10,877.16  23.58   
 Open  10,878.12  0.96   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  10,914.03  35.91   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,938.11  24.09   
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,956.94  18.83   
 Daily Pivot  10,975.37  18.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,975.77  0.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  10,989.81  14.04   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,012.24  22.43   
 High  11,036.72  24.48   
 Daily R1  11,073.59  36.87   
 Daily R2  11,134.93  61.35   
 Weekly R1  11,148.47  13.54   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  11,284.70  136.23   
 Monthly R1  11,364.70  80.00   
 Monthly R2  11,717.16  352.46   

Wednesday 8/12/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The same bullish green bar on the far right of the chart is still there. However, look at the thin blue indicator line.

It's turning down. Market weakness. That's what it means. You can see two valleys ago that just because the indicator says the market is weak, it won't necessarily change the signal.

I think we'll have to wait another week to see if the weakness persists.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 48%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both red and blue lines show modest improvement this week over last week. The lines uptrends continue, though.

There's no sign of divergence. No dry cough or fever, so probably not covid either. It just looks bullish.

The prior chart is bullish but showing signs of stress. This chart is happy. So let's just call the direction for the next week as undecided. I suspect the indices will be moving up, but a bad jobs report on Thursday could scuttle things. So could lots of other national news.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/11/20. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.3% or 357.96 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 257 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 138 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 119 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/363 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider quiz featuring broadening bottoms.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,991.00    
 Weekly S2  26,338.83  1,347.83   
 Monthly S1  26,391.22  52.39   
 Monthly Pivot  26,923.73  532.51   
 Weekly S1  27,065.13  141.40   
 Weekly Pivot  27,260.69  195.55   
 Daily S2  27,378.85  118.17   
 Low  27,488.21  109.36   
 Open  27,488.21  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  27,585.15  96.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,608.79  23.64   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,646.04  37.25   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,683.28  37.25   
 Daily Pivot  27,694.50  11.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,791.44  96.94   
 High  27,803.86  12.42   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  27,900.80  96.94   
 Weekly R1  27,986.99  86.20   
 Daily R2  28,010.15  23.16   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  28,182.55  172.39   
 Monthly R1  28,323.95  141.40   
 Monthly R2  28,856.46  532.51   

Monday 8/10/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

Not much new here compared to the last time we looked at this chart.

AB is a double bottom chart pattern which confirmed when price closed above the top of the pattern. The index has followed a channel upward, to C, so that was a nice move.

As you can see, the index is at the top of the channel now (shown as the two parallel red lines), suggesting a drop to the bottom of the channel. I don't know if that'll happen or not. The index might just keep sliding along the top trendline. That happens sometimes. In fact, you can see that happened at the last, top, trendline touch in mid July.

I drew a horizontal blue line which I view as overhead resistance to the upward move. That might have a say in how far the index rises.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 236.08 points.
Tuesday: Up 164.07 points.
Wednesday: Up 373.05 points.
Thursday: Up 185.46 points.
Friday: Up 46.5 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1005.16 points or 3.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 265.71 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 80.16 points or 2.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.2% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     50.6% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 11,126.04 on 08/07/2020.
     66.0% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     52.9% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,138  27,286  27,371  27,519  27,604 
Weekly  26,220  26,826  27,141  27,748  28,063 
Monthly  24,872  26,153  26,804  28,085  28,737 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,320  3,336  3,344  3,360  3,368 
Weekly  3,261  3,306  3,329  3,374  3,397 
Monthly  3,036  3,194  3,273  3,431  3,510 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,813  10,912  11,019  11,118  11,225 
Weekly  10,695  10,853  10,989  11,148  11,284 
Monthly  9,830  10,420  10,773  11,364  11,717 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 46.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 5 months up 17.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.3%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 36.0%   The trend may continue. 
 5 months up 14.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
39Head-and-shoulders bottom
28Triangle, symmetrical
23Triple bottom
20Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
11Pipe bottom
10Big W
9Flag, high and tight
7Triangle, ascending
6Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Healthcare Information
2. Healthcare Information2. Semiconductor
3. Retail Building Supply3. Internet
4. Internet4. Retail Building Supply
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/7/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APDScallop, ascending and inverted      06/24/202008/04/2020Chemical (Diversified)
ATSGScallop, ascending      07/17/202008/06/2020Air Transport
ALRMHead-and-shoulders top      07/13/202007/31/2020Computer Software and Svcs
CPBRectangle bottom      06/16/202008/06/2020Food Processing
CLNEBig W      07/20/202007/31/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
COSTMeasured move up      06/25/202008/06/2020Retail Store
INFNFlag, high and tight      06/11/202008/06/2020Telecom. Equipment
LAMRRoof, inverted      07/21/202008/05/2020Advertising
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202008/06/2020Electric Utility (Central)
NBRFlag, high and tight      07/14/202008/05/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NKETriangle, symmetrical      06/23/202008/04/2020Shoe
PANWTriangle, ascending      07/13/202008/04/2020Computer Software and Svcs
SXIRectangle bottom      06/11/202008/06/2020Diversified Co.
SNPSTriangle, ascending      06/19/202008/06/2020Computer Software and Svcs
TDOCDead-cat bounce      08/05/202008/05/2020Healthcare Information
IGVTriangle, symmetrical      07/09/202007/31/2020Computer Software and Svcs

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/30/2020 and 08/06/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $282.99
1 Month avg volatility: $6.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $268.54 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.43%
Volume: 1,168,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,051,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 06/24/2020 to 08/04/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $25.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.33 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.76%
Volume: 1,184,100 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 07/17/2020 to 08/06/2020
Breakout is upward 80% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Alarm.com Holdings inc (ALRM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $60.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.62 or 15.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.07%
Volume: 891,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/31/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $49.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.74 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.93%
Volume: 1,249,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/06/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $2.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.31 or 18.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.79%
Volume: 3,084,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 07/31/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $343.31
1 Month avg volatility: $5.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $331.45 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.80%
Volume: 2,092,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,225,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Measured move up from 06/25/2020 to 08/06/2020

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $8.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.60 or 15.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.78%
Volume: 13,378,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 08/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/13/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/12/2020 and a 38% chance by 11/11/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $65.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.06 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.29%
Volume: 1,164,500 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 07/21/2020 to 08/05/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $65.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.88 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.82%
Volume: 56,700 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 08/06/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $51.78
1 Month avg volatility: $4.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.99 or 20.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -64.04%
Volume: 839,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/14/2020 to 08/05/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 213 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $100.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.41 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.85%
Volume: 4,060,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,538,462 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2020 to 08/04/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Palto Alto Networks Inc (PANW)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $265.88
1 Month avg volatility: $6.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $245.43 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.98%
Volume: 679,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 08/04/2020
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $56.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.81 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.86%
Volume: 43,900 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 08/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 40 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $202.26
1 Month avg volatility: $4.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $189.04 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.30%
Volume: 465,700 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/19/2020 to 08/06/2020
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Teladoc, Inc (TDOC)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $212.50
1 Month avg volatility: $12.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $245.55 or 15.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 153.82%
Volume: 10,335,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/05/2020 to 08/05/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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iShares Expanded Tech-software Sector (IGV)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 575
8/6/20 close: $303.00
1 Month avg volatility: $6.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $286.50 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.02%
Volume: 709,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/31/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 8/6/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bullish!

The index climbed by 0.5% or 57.23 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 561 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 380 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 67.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 193/346 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale but only for the last 5 days, instead of the usual 10.

On the left is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. The left shoulder is marked L, head is H, right shoulder is R. The pattern confirmed and led to a nice rally.

The blue pattern might look like a broadening pattern, right-angled and ascending, but I didn't draw it that way. There's too much white space in the middle. I just wanted to emphasize how the index has moved horizontally over the last 2 days.

Today, the red pattern, is an ascending triangle. Notice at the end of the pattern price has broken out downward. It might be hard to see, but it's there.

If you were to look at the 2 day chart, 5 min scale, you'd see that it actually broke out upward around 2:30, then downward, only to rise to the close just shy of 11,000. From 2:30 on, it takes on the shape of a broadening formation, right-angled and descending.

The breakout from these patterns is upward 63% of the time, so that's the direction I expect.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,324.33    
 Monthly S1  10,161.36  837.04   
 Weekly S2  10,364.76  203.40   
 Monthly Pivot  10,500.65  135.89   
 Weekly S1  10,681.58  180.93   
 Weekly Pivot  10,714.69  33.11   
 Daily S2  10,923.02  208.33   
 Low  10,943.72  20.70   
 Daily S1  10,960.71  16.99   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,966.03  5.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  10,967.87  1.84   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,972.92  5.04   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,979.80  6.89   
 Daily Pivot  10,981.41  1.61   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  10,998.40  16.99   
 High  11,002.11  3.71   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  11,019.10  16.99   
 Weekly R1  11,031.51  12.41   
 Daily R2  11,039.80  8.29   
 Weekly R2  11,064.62  24.82   
 Monthly R1  11,337.68  273.06   
 Monthly R2  11,676.97  339.28   

Wednesday 8/5/20. Indicators: Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish trend remains intact, despite a bearish signal appearing a week ago. That signal disappeared when more bullish patterns came on scene.

You can see the dip in the CPI line at the bottom of the chart. It didn't make it down to 35 to signal a bearish trend change. So the chart remains bullish.

However, the index has made a higher peak (it's not completed) but the indicator has not. That's bearish divergence. Nothing to worry about because the CPI line might still form a higher peak, but it does need monitoring.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 48% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 51%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago and they continue to show it week after week.

I don't see any divergence here. I don't see any failure swings. So the two charts are bullish and may remain that way for another week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/4/20. Slider Trading Quiz: Cypress Semiconductor

The index climbed by 0.9% or 236.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 515 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 300 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 215 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/362 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a slider trading quiz featuring Cypress Semiconductor stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,302.13    
 Monthly S1  25,483.26  1,181.14   
 Weekly S2  25,794.20  310.94   
 Weekly S1  26,229.30  435.10   
 Monthly Pivot  26,277.30  48.00   
 Weekly Pivot  26,427.38  150.08   
 Daily S2  26,462.47  35.09   
 Low  26,534.38  71.91   
 Open  26,542.32  7.94   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,563.43  21.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,600.42  36.99   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,620.82  20.40   
 Daily Pivot  26,635.35  14.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,641.22  5.87   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,664.40  23.18   
 High  26,707.26  42.86   
 Daily R1  26,736.31  29.05   
 Daily R2  26,808.23  71.91   
 Weekly R1  26,862.48  54.25   
 Weekly R2  27,060.56  198.08   
 Monthly R1  27,458.43  397.87   
 Monthly R2  28,252.47  794.03   

Monday 8/3/20. 2020 Market Forecast August Update

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for August, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 July 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+20.56%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+16.17%),
3. Communication services (+5.53%),
4. Health care (+3.40%),
5. Consumer staples (-0.77%),
6. Materials (-1.58%),
8. Utilities (-5.86%),
7. Real estate (-6.45%),
9. Industrials (-11.88%),
10. Financials (-21.97%),
11. and dead last is energy (-40.39%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+60.5%),
3. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+39.01%),
2. Software (+28.45%),
5. Metals & mining (+22.94%),
7. Life sciences tools & Services (+18.65%),
?. Air freight and logistics (17.86%)
8. Interactive media & Services (+14.51%),
6. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+12.59%),
13. Trading Companies & Distributors (+10.53%),
10. Specialty retail (+10.32%),

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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