Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20
As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20

 

July 2020 Headlines

Archives


Friday 7/31/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 583 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADBETriangle, symmetrical      07/13/202007/30/2020Computer Software and Svcs
ANTMRectangle bottom      06/12/202007/28/2020Medical Services
CXHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/25/202007/24/2020Cement and Aggregates
CNPBroadening top      07/13/202007/30/2020Electric Utility (Central)
^DJUDiamond top      07/17/202007/29/2020None
FFGTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/202007/30/2020Insurance (Life)
GPROTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/202007/30/2020Electronics
JBLUTriangle, descending      05/29/202007/30/2020Air Transport
KLACBroadening top      07/06/202007/24/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LBFlag, high and tight      06/25/202007/30/2020Apparel
RAMPRising wedge      06/23/202007/24/2020Computer Software and Svcs
NJRTriangle, symmetrical      07/06/202007/30/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
OMCBroadening top      07/13/202007/28/2020Advertising
OMIFlag, high and tight      06/22/202007/30/2020Medical Supplies
PATKBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/16/202007/30/2020Retail Building Supply
SEICPipe top      07/13/202007/20/2020IT Services

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/23/2020 and 07/30/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $438.88
1 Month avg volatility: $12.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $401.94 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.07%
Volume: 1,438,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $277.19
1 Month avg volatility: $6.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $293.31 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.22%
Volume: 1,080,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/12/2020 to 07/28/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $3.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.84 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.20%
Volume: 9,739,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 460 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $19.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.33 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.85%
Volume: 7,208,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/30/20 close: $828.13
1 Month avg volatility: $15.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $858.86 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.81%
Volume: 49,556,900 shares. 3 month avg: 62,233,735 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/17/2020 to 07/29/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $34.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.09 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.74%
Volume: 31,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $5.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.67 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.35%
Volume: 1,310,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $10.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.30 or 10.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.51%
Volume: 9,979,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/29/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 101 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $197.90
1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $210.77 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.07%
Volume: 1,162,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,563,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $24.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.44 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.43%
Volume: 10,518,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $45.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.78 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.28%
Volume: 409,200 shares. 3 month avg: 906,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/23/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $31.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.15 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.59%
Volume: 359,300 shares. 3 month avg: 632,043 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $53.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.17 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -34.26%
Volume: 2,506,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/28/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $16.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.96 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 216.63%
Volume: 2,016,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $65.94
1 Month avg volatility: $3.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.15 or 14.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.77%
Volume: 378,000 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/16/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $52.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.49 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.16%
Volume: 905,800 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/20/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top


Thursday 7/30/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.4% or 140.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 108 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 61 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 47 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 192/345 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What caught my eye first is the horizontal move at A. I drew a red trendline showing the move.

When I search for patterns, lines (underlying trends) are what I see first, as in this case.

Let's try this experiment. The drop from A to B, vertically, added to A will be how high the index rises over the next few days. Don't take that as gospel. It's just an experiment.

But there's some technical analysis behind it. Think of the trendline measure rule, but it's not an exact match. Or you can call this an inverted roof pattern where the height of the pattern, added to the top of it, gives you a target. That's the price I'm looking for.

Let's just see if price can reach that target: 10,640 on the Nasdaq. Because price falls twice as fast as it rises, I'll give it two days to make the trip. Deadline: Friday's close.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,172.51    
 Monthly S1  9,857.72  685.22   
 Weekly S2  9,910.77  53.05   
 Weekly S1  10,226.86  316.08   
 Monthly Pivot  10,348.83  121.97   
 Daily S2  10,421.04  72.21   
 Low  10,464.00  42.96   
 Open  10,474.70  10.70   
 Daily S1  10,481.99  7.29   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,503.69  21.70   
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,515.96  12.26   
 Daily Pivot  10,524.95  9.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,528.22  3.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  10,533.39  5.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  10,542.94  9.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  10,567.91  24.97   
 Daily R1  10,585.90  17.99   
 Daily R2  10,628.86  42.96   
 Weekly R1  10,849.48  220.62   
 Monthly R1  11,034.04  184.57   
 Weekly R2  11,156.01  121.97   
 Monthly R2  11,525.15  369.13   

Wednesday 7/29/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator today turned bearish as the vertical red line shows on the chart.

Notice that the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart has dived down for cover.

Of course, due to the way the indicator is constructed, the signal can disappear for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days. So we'll have to wait and see what happens, but as of today, the chart is bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 51% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 50%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 478 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The above text says the readings deteriorated from a week ago. That's the first time in months, I think, where that's happened.

So we have a bearish CPI chart and this chart is bearish, too, or rather the signals are deteriorating. Does it mean the world is going to end as we know it?

Probably not. I'll take a guess here. The market will continue lower, maybe not fast, but it'll continue to show weakness. Unemployment will worsen. Earnings will likely be soft for some companies, but I'm seeing reports of strength there, surprising the markets. It reminds me of a company I know that supposedly had a slush fund set aside which they used too boost earnings when a quarter was soft. I don't know if that's true. I don't know if it was legal, but it sounds reasonable. I recall headquarters congratulating them on a fine quarter after they dipped into the slush.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/28/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Continental Air

The index climbed by 0.4% or 114.88 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1106 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 585 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 521 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/361 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Continental Air (CAL) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,108.74    
 Monthly S1  25,346.76  1,238.01   
 Weekly S2  26,041.91  695.15   
 Monthly Pivot  26,209.04  167.13   
 Weekly S1  26,313.34  104.30   
 Daily S2  26,347.18  33.84   
 Low  26,426.92  79.74   
 Open  26,447.67  20.75   
 Daily S1  26,465.97  18.30   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,502.76  36.79   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,526.19  23.43   
 Daily Pivot  26,545.72  19.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,549.62  3.90   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,584.77  35.15   
 High  26,625.46  40.69   
 Daily R1  26,664.51  39.05   
 Weekly Pivot  26,674.29  9.78   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  26,744.26  69.97   
 Weekly R1  26,945.72  201.46   
 Weekly R2  27,306.67  360.95   
 Monthly R1  27,447.06  140.39   
 Monthly R2  28,309.34  862.29   

Monday 7/27/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I added labels to the two peaks at AB. These highlight a double top. It will confirm as a valid double top should the index close below C.

It hasn't done that yet. C is the lowest low between the two peaks, by the way.

I also drew the red trendline, starting from the current price backward, just to see where it would hit the index.

The index has bounced off that trendline plenty of times, suggesting it's a good support area. Will the index bounce off it again?

If it plunges through, then the index could drop to 9600, which is about the height of the double top expressed below the trendline.

If the index decides to rise, then a rise to 10,800 seems easy. Maybe not in one day but certainly doable.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 8.92 points.
Tuesday: Up 159.53 points.
Wednesday: Up 165.44 points.
Thursday: Down 353.51 points.
Friday: Down 182.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 202.06 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 140.01 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 9.1 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     45.3% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     4.4% down from the high of 10,839.93 on 07/21/2020.
     56.3% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     5.2% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     46.7% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,277  26,373  26,499  26,596  26,722 
Weekly  26,004  26,237  26,636  26,869  27,268 
Monthly  24,070  25,270  26,171  27,370  28,271 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,187  3,201  3,214  3,229  3,242 
Weekly  3,152  3,184  3,232  3,264  3,312 
Monthly  2,885  3,050  3,165  3,331  3,445 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,132  10,247  10,333  10,449  10,535 
Weekly  9,851  10,107  10,473  10,730  11,096 
Monthly  9,113  9,738  10,289  10,914  11,465 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 24.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.4%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 13.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
30Head-and-shoulders bottom
26Triple bottom
25Triangle, symmetrical
21Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
16Pipe bottom
15Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
11Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
9Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
8Big W
6Flag, high and tight

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Retail Building Supply2. Semiconductor
3. Internet3. Internet
4. Semiconductor4. Retail Building Supply
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/24/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMWDTriangle, ascending      06/08/202007/21/2020Building Materials
ANIKTriangle, symmetrical      06/26/202007/22/2020Biotechnology
CSCOBroadening top      06/30/202007/23/2020Computers and Peripherals
CMTLHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/26/202007/20/2020Telecom. Equipment
CONNTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/202007/21/2020Retail (Special Lines)
COTYTriangle, descending      06/26/202007/23/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
CROXTriangle, ascending      06/08/202007/23/2020Shoe
DUKTriangle, symmetrical      06/23/202007/20/2020Electric Utility (East)
EVHFlag, high and tight      06/15/202007/22/2020Healthcare Information
FEDead-cat bounce      07/22/202007/22/2020Electric Utility (East)
FLIRTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/202007/23/2020Aerospace/Defense
GDPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Aerospace/Defense
HBIFlag      07/16/202007/22/2020Apparel
HLFlag, high and tight      06/18/202007/23/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
LMTPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Aerospace/Defense
MGEETriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202007/23/2020Electric Utility (Central)
^IXICDiamond top      07/06/202007/17/2020None
NOCPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Aerospace/Defense
OUTPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Advertising
RGAPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Insurance (Life)
SKXTriple bottom      07/09/202007/20/2020Shoe
TGTTriangle, symmetrical      05/19/202007/21/2020Retail Store
TXTPipe bottom      07/06/202007/13/2020Diversified Co.
TZOODiamond bottom      07/07/202007/21/2020Internet
QTECDiamond top      07/06/202007/17/2020Electronics

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/16/2020 and 07/23/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 487 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $77.54
1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.82 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.81%
Volume: 206,700 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $36.47
1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.66 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.66%
Volume: 79,900 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/22/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $47.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.48 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.15%
Volume: 23,689,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/30/2020 to 07/23/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $16.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.35 or 13.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -53.45%
Volume: 222,900 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/20/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 161 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $10.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.75 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.19%
Volume: 355,300 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $4.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.74 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -62.93%
Volume: 6,724,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/23/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $35.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.59 or 12.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.16%
Volume: 932,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 298 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $83.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.98 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.92%
Volume: 2,360,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2020 to 07/20/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $10.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.13 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.91%
Volume: 1,263,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/22/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/01/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/31/2020 and a 38% chance by 11/30/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $27.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.97 or 16.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.62%
Volume: 53,042,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/22/2020 to 07/22/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 406 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $41.89
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.98 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.55%
Volume: 686,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $151.01
1 Month avg volatility: $3.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.33 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.37%
Volume: 963,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $14.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.84 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.19%
Volume: 5,307,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/16/2020 to 07/22/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Hecla Mining Co. (HL)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $5.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.43 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 51.33%
Volume: 21,694,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,539,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/18/2020 to 07/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 268 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $387.62
1 Month avg volatility: $8.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $368.61 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.45%
Volume: 1,439,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $67.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.99 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.36%
Volume: 50,700 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/23/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/23/20 close: $10,461.42
1 Month avg volatility: $204.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11,137.38 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.59%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/17/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $313.06
1 Month avg volatility: $7.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $297.22 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.99%
Volume: 691,400 shares. 3 month avg: 756,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $14.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.20 or 11.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.33%
Volume: 2,283,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $88.63
1 Month avg volatility: $3.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.46 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.65%
Volume: 577,400 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Skechers USA Inc (SKX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $31.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.89 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.06%
Volume: 2,841,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,234,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/20/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $122.35
1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.31 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.57%
Volume: 3,201,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,916,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/19/2020 to 07/21/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 400 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $34.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.45 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.40%
Volume: 1,010,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $5.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.39 or 20.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.79%
Volume: 168,800 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/07/2020 to 07/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Top

First Trust NASDAQ 100 Tech Sector ETF (QTEC)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 579
7/23/20 close: $112.93
1 Month avg volatility: $2.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $120.06 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.82%
Volume: 173,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/17/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top


Thursday 7/23/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 25.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 685 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 288 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 192/344 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A down-sloping channel appears in red. The index has broken out upward from that channel. Is it significant?

Look at the orange channel. This one is up-sloping so maybe it doesn't count. Price pushed out the top of it, which is unusual when you think about it.

If I had to guess, I'd say the index will make it up to the blue line. That's the top of the channel. I don't know if it'll reach that or not, but that's the target I'd use. And I don't have a time limit on the move, either. The rule of thumb is that price drops twice as fast as it rises, so I'll give it 4 days to hit the target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,889.52    
 Monthly S1  9,797.83  908.30   
 Weekly S2  9,928.80  130.98   
 Monthly Pivot  10,311.30  382.50   
 Weekly S1  10,317.47  6.16   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  10,571.12  253.66   
 Daily S2  10,575.10  3.97   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  10,627.45  52.35   
 Daily S1  10,640.61  13.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,672.48  31.86   
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,686.38  13.91   
 Open  10,687.58  1.20   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  10,692.97  5.39   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,700.29  7.33   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  10,706.13  5.84   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  10,745.32  39.19   
 Daily R1  10,758.48  13.16   
 Daily R2  10,810.84  52.35   
 Weekly R1  10,959.79  148.95   
 Weekly R2  11,213.44  253.66   
 Monthly R1  11,219.61  6.16   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  11,733.08  513.48   

Wednesday 7/22/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator still shows green, a bullish signal and the thin blue line is at 95, close to the top of the 0-100 range.

The indicator is going down and taking the index with it. How can I be so sure? Because the indicator doesn't hang around near the top of the scale for long and the index is hitting overhead resistance.

Having said that, the market continues to brush off the implications of covid 19. They see the US opening up and it's full steam ahead. Maybe September (weakest month of the year) will slow it down. Or an October surprise will cause a drop.

Until then, though, it's up, up, and away, much to my chagrin.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 57%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 478 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 26%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines have improved from a week ago. They don't show any concern about the markets turning down.

The prior chart is bullish and so is this one. Guess that means we're set for another weak of moving higher.

Not sure I believe that, though.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/21/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Brooks Automation

The index climbed by 0.0% or 8.92 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1318 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 703 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 615 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 209/360 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring Brooks Automation stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,970.31    
 Monthly S1  25,325.59  1,355.28   
 Weekly S2  25,506.04  180.45   
 Weekly S1  26,093.46  587.41   
 Monthly Pivot  26,198.46  105.00   
 Daily S2  26,389.21  190.75   
 Low  26,504.20  114.99   
 Daily S1  26,535.04  30.84   
 Weekly Pivot  26,582.39  47.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,603.83  21.44   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,634.61  30.78   
 Daily Pivot  26,650.03  15.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  26,660.29  10.26   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,665.39  5.10   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  26,680.87  15.48   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  26,765.02  84.15   
 Daily R1  26,795.86  30.84   
 Daily R2  26,910.85  114.99   
 Weekly R1  27,169.81  258.96   
 Monthly R1  27,553.74  383.93   
 Weekly R2  27,658.74  105.00   
 Monthly R2  28,426.61  767.87   

Monday 7/20/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

In a prior post, I think I remarked about the following two patterns before, a diamond top (the thing that looks like a diamond), and a head-and-shoulders top (L=left shoulder, H=Head, R=Right shoulder).

More recently is a double bottom appearing at AB. The stock confirmed when the index closed above the peak between the two valleys.

What are the implications of that?

The measure rule suggests that the index will rise up as tall as the pattern, starting from the top of the pattern.

You can look at the picture and see price hasn't risen much above the red line so far, so there's a lot of growth left.

Just realize that the measure rule is arbitrary. It's just a target. It's not a guarantee that the index will climb. It might fall instead.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 10.5 points.
Tuesday: Up 556.79 points.
Wednesday: Up 227.51 points.
Thursday: Down 135.39 points.
Friday: Down 62.76 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 596.65 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 114.25 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 39.69 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     46.4% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 10,824.78 on 07/13/2020.
     58.4% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     5.0% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     47.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,512  26,592  26,700  26,780  26,889 
Weekly  25,503  26,088  26,579  27,164  27,656 
Monthly  23,967  25,320  26,195  27,548  28,424 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,193  3,209  3,221  3,237  3,249 
Weekly  3,086  3,156  3,197  3,266  3,308 
Monthly  2,870  3,048  3,143  3,320  3,416 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,374  10,439  10,486  10,550  10,597 
Weekly  9,861  10,182  10,503  10,824  11,146 
Monthly  8,822  9,663  10,244  11,084  11,665 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 24.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 24.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.2%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
25Head-and-shoulders bottom
19Triangle, symmetrical
19Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
18Triple bottom
11Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
9Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
8Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
7Big W
7Pipe bottom
4Diamond top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Semiconductor2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Internet3. Semiconductor
4. Retail Building Supply4. Internet
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Household Products

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/17/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 27 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      05/22/202007/16/2020Medical Services
ALKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/25/202007/10/2020Air Transport
AEOFalling wedge      06/11/202007/14/2020Apparel
AMNHorn bottom      06/22/202007/06/2020Human Resources
AWIHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/15/202007/14/2020Building Materials
ARWTriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/16/2020Electronics
ATOTriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202007/15/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
ADPTriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/13/2020IT Services
BATriangle, symmetrical      06/11/202007/16/2020Aerospace/Defense
CBTTriple bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CTSHTriangle, symmetrical      06/05/202007/10/2020IT Services
CRTriple bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Diversified Co.
CWDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/25/202007/14/2020Machinery
EMRHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Computers and Peripherals
FOEBig W      06/24/202007/10/2020Chemical (Specialty)
FISHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/15/202007/14/2020Computer Software and Svcs
GEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/25/202007/10/2020Diversified Co.
HSYTriple bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Food Processing
HONHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Aerospace/Defense
DHIRoof, inverted      05/28/202007/14/2020Homebuilding
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/202007/16/2020Food Processing
MOSHorn bottom      06/22/202007/06/2020Chemical (Diversified)
NEUTriple bottom      06/15/202007/10/2020Chemical (Specialty)
NBLDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/30/202007/10/2020Petroleum (Producing)
OMCHorn bottom      06/22/202007/06/2020Advertising
OMIRectangle bottom      06/11/202007/14/2020Medical Supplies
PKERectangle bottom      06/22/202007/16/2020Chemical (Specialty)
POLTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/202007/16/2020Chemical (Specialty)
LUVDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/25/202007/10/2020Air Transport
TPRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/26/202007/10/2020Apparel
TJXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/29/202007/14/2020Retail Store
RIGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/29/202007/14/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VTriangle, descending      06/10/202007/16/2020Financial Services
WSMTriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/16/2020Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/09/2020 and 07/16/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $18.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.63 or 18.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.75%
Volume: 673,800 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/22/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 528 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $37.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.98 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.97%
Volume: 1,739,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 374 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $11.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.48 or 16.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.38%
Volume: 5,543,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 06/11/2020 to 07/14/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $47.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.52 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.43%
Volume: 429,700 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $78.78
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.10 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.16%
Volume: 195,000 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/14/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $67.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.24 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.13%
Volume: 342,700 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $100.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.87 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.11%
Volume: 555,700 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/15/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $146.18
1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.78 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.26%
Volume: 1,199,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/13/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $178.70
1 Month avg volatility: $8.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.51 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.14%
Volume: 34,993,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cabot Corp. (CBT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $38.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.92 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.81%
Volume: 178,500 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $61.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.65 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.56%
Volume: 5,108,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $60.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.78 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.49%
Volume: 164,900 shares. 3 month avg: 293,374 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Curtiss-Wright (CW)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $91.86
1 Month avg volatility: $3.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.97 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -34.80%
Volume: 325,000 shares. 3 month avg: 230,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/14/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Top

Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $63.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.67 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.20%
Volume: 2,492,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 338 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $12.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.17 or 9.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.19%
Volume: 248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 06/24/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

Top

Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $138.85
1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $131.21 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.17%
Volume: 1,835,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/14/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $7.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.49 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.83%
Volume: 52,273,500 shares. 3 month avg: 74,714,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Top

Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 262 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $134.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.16 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.52%
Volume: 1,614,800 shares. 3 month avg: 973,146 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $153.08
1 Month avg volatility: $3.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.09 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.51%
Volume: 3,697,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 83 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $62.54
1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.72 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.56%
Volume: 4,221,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/14/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $158.37
1 Month avg volatility: $4.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $148.03 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.08%
Volume: 87,900 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $13.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.94 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.00%
Volume: 3,545,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $422.21
1 Month avg volatility: $9.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $388.75 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.22%
Volume: 37,800 shares. 3 month avg: 31,329 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $9.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.20 or 17.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.96%
Volume: 8,186,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/30/2020 to 07/10/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $56.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.65 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.57%
Volume: 1,352,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 12 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $8.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.86 or 8.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 57.45%
Volume: 751,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 07/14/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $11.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.85 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.27%
Volume: 88,400 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $25.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.64 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.57%
Volume: 382,700 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $34.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.55 or 10.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.62%
Volume: 11,375,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,071,869 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $14.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.24 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -47.94%
Volume: 3,145,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/10/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 40%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Top

TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $53.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.87 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.36%
Volume: 7,334,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,445 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/14/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $2.11
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.62 or 23.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -69.33%
Volume: 16,214,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/14/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Visa (V)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 211 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $193.50
1 Month avg volatility: $4.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $204.33 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.98%
Volume: 5,062,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 88 out of 579
7/16/20 close: $84.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.74 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.90%
Volume: 785,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top


Thursday 7/16/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 61.91 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 499 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 311 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 188 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 192/343 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern outlined in red, do you know its name?

It's a symmetrical triangle. Price action is bounded by two converging trendlines. The top one slopes downward and the bottom one slopes upward. Price touches the trendlines at least five times. That's three touches of one trendline and two of the other. The touches need not alternate but often do.

Price breaks out upward just over half the time, so that's the way to bet. The upward direction also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,972.60    
 Monthly S1  9,761.54  788.95   
 Monthly Pivot  10,191.95  430.40   
 Weekly S2  10,219.24  27.29   
 Daily S2  10,341.10  121.87   
 Weekly S1  10,384.86  43.76   
 Low  10,420.54  35.68   
 Daily S1  10,445.80  25.26   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,490.88  45.08   
 Weekly Pivot  10,503.61  12.73   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,512.61  9.00   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  10,525.23  12.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,534.33  9.10   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  10,550.49  16.16   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  10,576.72  26.23   
 High  10,604.67  27.95   
 Daily R1  10,629.93  25.26   
 Weekly R1  10,669.23  39.31   
 Daily R2  10,709.36  40.13   
 Weekly R2  10,787.98  78.61   
 Monthly R1  10,980.89  192.92   
 Monthly R2  11,411.30  430.40   

Wednesday 7/15/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator remains bullish, as shown by the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart.

As the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart shows, the indicator is again strong. It's not at the top of the scale, but it's close.

Of course, that means there's not much room for growth and all of that room to drop.

The index, as the chart shows, has reached overhead resistance setup by the prior peak in June. Both are near 360, using the CPI's axis numbers as a nearby reference.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 57% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 60%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 478 stocks in my database are down an average of 26% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 27%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement from this week over last.

Last week, we saw bearish divergence with a CPI that was heading down. The CPI pulled out of its dive before turning bearish and has recovered as I mentioned. The bearish divergence is still there on the blue line, but has disappeared on the more sensitive red line. That means the blue line will likely follow suit and continue higher.

Putting everything together and we see a bullish outlook emerge but I still feel covid 19 will force the indices lower. That hasn't happened, really, and I switched Tom's Targets (grid at page top) to expect an upward move.

NBC nightly news reports on a few cases where people have caught covid twice. The antibodies appear to last for three weeks to a few months. That means any notion of a herd immunity might be wrong. It also makes me wonder how good a vaccine will be, too. If natural immunity starts fading after 3 weeks, how long can an artificial immunity last?

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/14/20. Slider Trading Quiz! APCC

The index climbed by 0.0% or 10.5 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1317 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 702 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 615 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 208/359 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring American Power Conversion Corp (APCC) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,432.70    
 Monthly S1  24,759.25  1,326.55   
 Weekly S2  25,194.93  435.68   
 Weekly S1  25,640.36  445.44   
 Daily S2  25,661.51  21.15   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  25,873.66  212.14   
 Weekly Pivot  25,968.95  95.29   
 Low  26,044.23  75.28   
 Close  26,085.80  41.57   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  26,169.73  83.93   
 Open  26,225.07  55.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  26,256.37  31.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,271.47  15.09   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,341.66  70.19   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,411.85  70.19   
 Weekly R1  26,414.38  2.53   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  26,468.52  54.13   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  26,639.09  170.57   
 Weekly R2  26,742.97  103.88   
 Daily R2  26,851.23  108.27   
 Monthly R1  27,496.28  645.05   
 Monthly R2  28,906.76  1,410.48   

Monday 7/13/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew two internal trendlines. Internal means they cut through price, which these do. I wanted to see how the plunge at A mirrored the overshoot at B.

Cool, huh? Isn't that interesting how that works? I think it's a variation of the trendline measure rule except it applies here to a channel (the two nearly-parallel red lines).

My question now is, does the two moves outside the channel at C and D have any significance?

In other words, will we see the index rise above the top of the channel by the same amount?

Answer: Probably not. It's been my experience that as soon as you see a cycle forming, it stops working.

 

The pic on the lower left is a project that kept me busy to the last 2 weekends. Not sure what a vaction is, though. It's supposed to be a vacation.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a bridge.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 459.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 396.85 points.
Wednesday: Up 177.1 points.
Thursday: Down 361.19 points.
Friday: Up 369.21 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 247.94 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 409.81 points or 4.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.03 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     43.2% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 10,622.35 on 07/10/2020.
     60.1% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     6.1% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     45.3% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,474  25,775  25,938  26,239  26,402 
Weekly  25,191  25,633  25,965  26,407  26,739 
Monthly  23,429  24,752  26,166  27,489  28,903 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,119  3,152  3,169  3,203  3,220 
Weekly  3,091  3,138  3,163  3,209  3,234 
Monthly  2,860  3,023  3,128  3,290  3,395 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,387  10,502  10,562  10,678  10,738 
Weekly  10,242  10,429  10,526  10,714  10,810 
Monthly  8,995  9,806  10,214  11,026  11,434 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 24.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 36.2%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
14Triangle, symmetrical
13Head-and-shoulders top
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Double Bottom, Eve and Eve
5Pipe bottom
4Dead-cat bounce
3Diamond top
3Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
3Flag, high and tight
2Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Computer Software and Svcs2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Internet4. Internet
5. Household Products5. Retail Building Supply

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/10/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 585 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACIWTriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/06/2020IT Services
AFLFalling wedge      05/29/202007/09/2020Insurance (Diversified)
ATOTriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202007/09/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
BBBYDead-cat bounce      07/09/202007/09/2020Retail (Special Lines)
BIGFlag, high and tight      04/28/202007/09/2020Retail Store
CPBTriangle, ascending      06/08/202007/09/2020Food Processing
CENXRoof, inverted      06/16/202007/09/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CSCOTriangle, symmetrical      06/09/202007/08/2020Computers and Peripherals
CAGPennant      07/01/202007/09/2020Food Processing
DECKTriangle, descending      06/05/202007/09/2020Shoe
EXPTriangle, symmetrical      06/05/202007/08/2020Cement and Aggregates
EIGIFlag, high and tight      05/04/202007/09/2020E-Commerce
FICODiamond top      06/02/202007/09/2020IT Services
FEPipe bottom      06/22/202006/29/2020Electric Utility (East)
FLIRScallop, descending      06/05/202007/06/2020Aerospace/Defense
GESTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/06/2020Apparel
HDTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/09/2020Retail Building Supply
KDiamond top      05/28/202007/09/2020Food Processing
LMTFlag      06/29/202007/06/2020Aerospace/Defense
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      04/28/202007/09/2020Advertising
NTGRBroadening bottom      06/16/202007/07/2020Telecom. Equipment
OTEXTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/09/2020E-Commerce
SIGITriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/07/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SLCATriangle, descending      06/09/202007/09/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/02/2020 and 07/09/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $25.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.36 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.77%
Volume: 755,000 shares. 3 month avg: 464,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $33.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.16 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -35.78%
Volume: 3,806,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/29/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Top

Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $97.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.28 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.67%
Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $7.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.88 or 38.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -54.57%
Volume: 66,263,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Top

Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $40.96
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.34 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.62%
Volume: 726,700 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $49.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.19 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.02%
Volume: 1,180,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $6.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.18 or 17.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.25%
Volume: 787,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Top

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $46.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.96 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.63%
Volume: 25,667,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/08/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $35.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.82 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.97%
Volume: 2,870,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/01/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Top

Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $190.02
1 Month avg volatility: $7.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.22 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.53%
Volume: 448,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 368 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $69.44
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.15 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.41%
Volume: 332,600 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/08/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $4.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.40 or 18.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.70%
Volume: 593,500 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/04/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $421.76
1 Month avg volatility: $14.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $457.05 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.57%
Volume: 255,300 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $40.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.42 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.30%
Volume: 3,781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 06/29/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Top

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $39.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.59 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.30%
Volume: 1,246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 15%.
Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

Top

Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $9.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.67 or 16.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.16%
Volume: 1,756,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $247.96
1 Month avg volatility: $5.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $234.96 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.55%
Volume: 2,993,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,416,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $65.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.29 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.71%
Volume: 1,708,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $339.96
1 Month avg volatility: $9.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $320.88 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.69%
Volume: 1,823,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $1.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.29 or 21.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.35%
Volume: 165,400 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/13/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $24.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.00 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.02%
Volume: 290,600 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/07/2020
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $43.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.79 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.13%
Volume: 563,200 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $51.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.45 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.26%
Volume: 377,000 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/07/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $3.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.13 or 29.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.97%
Volume: 1,054,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top


Thursday 7/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.4% or 148.61 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 107 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 60 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 47 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/342 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The head-and-shoulders bottom that appeared a week ago I show here as LS-Head-RS. The index made a nice run up after that pattern completed.

Another one formed on Monday, but it was a potential head-and-shoulders top. I show that as LHR on the chart.

I write 'potential' because the pattern never confirmed as valid (price never closed below the neckline).

Instead, a double bottom appeared at AB. This confirmed when the index closed above the top of the chart pattern. I show that at C, but it may be hard to see. It suggest price will continue moving up by, oh, 150 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,056.90    
 Weekly S2  9,508.74  451.84   
 Monthly S1  9,774.70  265.96   
 Weekly S1  10,000.62  225.92   
 Monthly Pivot  10,042.53  41.91   
 Weekly Pivot  10,155.49  112.96   
 Daily S2  10,302.36  146.87   
 Low  10,350.96  48.60   
 Daily S1  10,397.43  46.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,405.84  8.41   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  10,409.35  3.51   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,422.79  13.45   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,439.75  16.95   
 Daily Pivot  10,446.03  6.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  10,492.50  46.47   
 High  10,494.63  2.13   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  10,541.10  46.47   
 Daily R2  10,589.70  48.60   
 Weekly R1  10,647.37  57.67   
 Monthly R1  10,760.33  112.96   
 Weekly R2  10,802.24  41.91   
 Monthly R2  11,028.16  225.92   

Wednesday 7/8/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned green, which is bullish, about a week ago and it's still bullish today.

However, look at the signal line, that thin blue thing near the bottom of the chart. It has turned down, hasn't it?

Combined with the index hitting overhead resistance setup by the early June peak, it could be the index will drop from here. So the chart is bullish but hinting of a downturn.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 60% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 62%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 479 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 27%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Usually this chart doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. Why? Because the two red and blue indicator lines hug price movement. When the index burps, so do the two lines.

The above text says the more sensitive red line has shown improvement from a week ago.

Now look at A, the brown or orange lines. They show bearish divergence. In other words, the index has a higher peak and the indicators show lower peaks. That's not good.

This chart, combined with the prior one suggests the index is going down. Maybe not hard and fast, but there's weakness underlying the market. That's my take, anyway.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/7/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.8% or 459.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 109 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 66 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 43 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 208/358 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring Apache stock. It's an actual trade of mine.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  23,499.78    
 Weekly S2  24,754.28  1,254.51   
 Monthly S1  24,893.40  139.12   
 Weekly S1  25,520.66  627.25   
 Weekly Pivot  25,862.53  341.88   
 Daily S2  25,892.10  29.56   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  25,996.08  103.98   
 Open  25,996.08  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,089.56  93.48   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,111.23  21.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,146.80  35.57   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,182.38  35.57   
 Daily Pivot  26,193.55  11.17   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  26,236.81  43.26   
 Close  26,287.03  50.22   
 High  26,297.53  10.50   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  26,391.01  93.48   
 Daily R2  26,495.00  103.98   
 Weekly R1  26,628.91  133.91   
 Weekly R2  26,970.78  341.88   
 Monthly R1  27,630.43  659.65   
 Monthly R2  28,973.84  1,343.40   

Monday 7/6/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale, but there's not much to write about this chart.

I drew two trendlines, the top one along the peaks. It slopes upward but because price only touches it two times, it's not as reliable as other trendlines with more touches.

It may act as overhead resistance.

Along the bottom, I drew another trendline. With this one, I had to make a decision as to whether to draw the line so it cut through price at the late June bottom or just touched it like the prior two touches.

I consider the late June dip as still resting on support. The index has climbed and looks to continue climbing. That's the direction I predicted in Tom's Targets at the top of this page for the next 2 weeks, but with covid spiking across the south and west, traders and investors could freak and send the index lower. So who knows what's going to happen.

The two trendlines, taken together, form a pattern called a rising wedge.

Usually, I like to see at least five trendline touches (3 on one trendline and 2 on the other), so this one with 4 touches isn't ideal. The breakout is downward 60% of the time. Maybe it has already broken out downward with the late June drop.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 580.25 points.
Tuesday: Up 217.08 points.
Wednesday: Down 77.91 points.
Thursday: Up 92.39 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 811.81 points or 3.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 450.41 points or 4.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 120.96 points or 4.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     12.7% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     41.8% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 10,310.36 on 07/02/2020.
     53.9% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     7.8% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     42.8% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,510  25,669  25,937  26,095  26,363 
Weekly  24,601  25,214  25,709  26,322  26,818 
Monthly  23,347  24,587  26,084  27,324  28,821 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,099  3,114  3,140  3,156  3,181 
Weekly  2,932  3,031  3,099  3,197  3,265 
Monthly  2,842  2,986  3,110  3,254  3,377 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,121  10,164  10,237  10,281  10,354 
Weekly  9,414  9,811  10,061  10,457  10,707 
Monthly  8,962  9,585  9,948  10,570  10,933 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 46.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 24.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 30.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 48.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
13Head-and-shoulders top
10Pipe top
8Flag, high and tight
8Triangle, symmetrical
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
3Dead-cat bounce
3Pipe bottom
2Diamond top
2Pennant

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Computer Software and Svcs2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Internet4. Internet
5. Retail Building Supply5. Retail Building Supply

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/3/20. Heavy Lifting: Supporting ThePatternSite.com

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code (and I think it only works for customers in the US).

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Top


Thursday 7/2/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 95.86 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 235 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 151 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 84 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 190/341 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's a very pretty looking head-and-shoulders bottom on the chart. The left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) are all well defined and symmetrical about the head.

The down-sloping neckline at A shows where the buy signal is. The index climbed to the target without much of a pause along the way.

Today, the index hit overhead resistance shown by the green line and turned lower.

Will the index have enough selling pressure to keep the index down?

This page (Holiday.html) says the index closes higher 53.6% of the time the day before a holiday (which Thursday is). On Monday, expect the index to close lower 57.2% of the time.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,762.68    
 Monthly S1  9,458.66  695.97   
 Weekly S2  9,569.07  110.41   
 Monthly Pivot  9,840.25  271.18   
 Weekly S1  9,861.85  21.60   
 Daily S2  9,984.14  122.29   
 Weekly Pivot  10,041.85  57.71   
 Low  10,048.04  6.19   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  10,063.67  15.63   
 Daily S1  10,069.38  5.71   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,105.02  35.63   
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,122.62  17.60   
 Daily Pivot  10,133.29  10.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,140.21  6.93   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  10,154.63  14.42   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  10,197.19  42.56   
 Daily R1  10,218.53  21.34   
 Daily R2  10,282.44  63.90   
 Weekly R1  10,334.63  52.19   
 Weekly R2  10,514.63  180.00   
 Monthly R1  10,536.23  21.60   
 Monthly R2  10,917.82  381.60   

Wednesday 7/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast July Update

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for July, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 June 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+14.21%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+6.60%),
3. Communication services (-0.97%),
4. Health care (-1.72%),
5. Consumer staples (-7.05%),
8. Materials (-8.04%),
7. Real estate (-9.96%),
6. Utilities (-12.61%),
9. Industrials (-15.50%),
10. Financials (-24.62%),
11. and dead last is energy (-37.02%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only those in the plus column appear. Year to date returns. The rank is how they listed a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+41.05%),
2. Software (+26.50%),
5. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+20.15%),
3. Biotechnology (+12.35%),
6. Metals & mining (+11.48%),
8. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+9.18%),
7. Life sciences tools & Services (+5.81%),
4. Interactive media & Services (+5.27%),
?. Professional Services (+4.83%),
9. Specialty retail (+2.94%),
10. IT Services (+2.35%),
11. Entertainment (+2.30%).
?. Trading Companies & Distributors (+2.08%),
?. Household products (+0.39%),

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

Copyright © 2005-2020 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer