Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/25/2020
  Indus: 27,174 +358.52 +1.3%  
  Trans: 11,270 +152.52 +1.4%  
  Utils: 808 +12.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 10,914 +241.29 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,298 +51.87 +1.6%  
YTD
-4.8%  
 +3.4%  
-8.1%  
 +21.6%  
 +2.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow28,650 or 26,000 by 10/15/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20
As of 09/25/2020
  Indus: 27,174 +358.52 +1.3%  
  Trans: 11,270 +152.52 +1.4%  
  Utils: 808 +12.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 10,914 +241.29 +2.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,298 +51.87 +1.6%  
YTD
-4.8%  
 +3.4%  
-8.1%  
 +21.6%  
 +2.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow28,650 or 26,000 by 10/15/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20

 

September 2020 Headlines

Archives


Monday 9/28/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At first, I didn't see anything in this chart and that's a bummer if I'm expected to write about it. But then I drew the trendlines.

The red support trendline, drawn along the valleys, lines up perfectly (except if you extend it to the left too far). The index rests upon it several times over the last several months.

The line suggests impenetrable support but, of course, that's an illusion. However, I thing the uptrend will last over the coming days and even weeks.

Along the tops, we have another trendline, the blue one.

This one has a problem, being that it has only 2 touches. So it's not as robust as the red line (I actually tested trendline touches, so I know what I'm talking about).

In other words, if price rises to the top trendline, it could very well pierce it. That's not a certainty, either.

What the combination of the two trendlines shows is that price has already bounced off the bottom red trendline and is heading higher. It might be a bumpy ride, but I expect the uptrend to continue. When it reaches the blue line, we'll have to reevaluate.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 509.72 points.
Tuesday: Up 140.48 points.
Wednesday: Down 525.05 points.
Thursday: Up 52.31 points.
Friday: Up 358.52 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 483.46 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 120.28 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.01 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.1% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     49.2% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     9.6% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     64.6% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     8.1% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     50.5% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,412  26,793  27,016  27,397  27,620 
Weekly  26,118  26,646  27,065  27,593  28,013 
Monthly  24,974  26,074  27,637  28,737  30,299 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,199  3,249  3,278  3,327  3,356 
Weekly  3,163  3,231  3,277  3,345  3,391 
Monthly  2,987  3,143  3,365  3,521  3,744 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,531  10,723  10,831  11,022  11,131 
Weekly  10,344  10,629  10,804  11,089  11,264 
Monthly  9,614  10,264  11,169  11,819  12,724 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AKAM, ALB, AMED, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, ANTM, ARW, AGO, ATO, ADP, BCPC, BLL, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BRKS, CPB, CF, CLX, COTY, CREE, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DHR, DFS, EIGI, EPAM, EFX, EQT, FICO, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FRD, IT, GPRO, GFF, GES, HQY, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IBKR, KMT, LB, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MAN, MAS, MRK, MGEE, NFG, NEU, PDLI, PINC, PG, RMBS, RGS, REV, RLI, SEE, SLGN, STMP, SUM, TMO, TJX, UPS, UNM, VMC, WRB, WSM, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYK, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, EWK, ECH, EWW, TUR, ROBO, MXI, XLI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Retail Building Supply2. Shoe
3. Air Transport3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Shoe4. Retail Building Supply
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Air Transport
6. Semiconductor6. Semiconductor
7. Chemical (Basic)7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. E-Commerce8. Chemical (Basic)
9. Healthcare Information9. Chemical (Diversified)
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Machinery
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
52. Chemical (Specialty)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)53. Food Processing
54. Petroleum (Integrated)54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Chemical (Specialty)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/25/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AEIS, AKAM, ALK, ALB, ADS, ALL, AMED, AEP, AXP, AFG, ATR, ARCB, ARW, AVA, BLL, BSET, BIO, BA, BOOT, BAH, BBW, CNP, CF, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CREE, CCRN, DECK, DFS, D, BOOM, EBAY, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, FICO, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GILD, GPRO, GGG, GES, HSII, HELE, HOLX, HD, ILMN, INFN, IBKR, IPI, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, L, LOW, MTSI, M, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MDT, MRK, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NXGN, NI, NBL, OXY, OGE, ASGN, OMI, PDCO, PDLI, PRU, PEG, RMBS, RGS, RNG, SEE, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TXT, TKR, TJX, TG, TREX, VEEV, WRB, WSM, XLNX, IYC, IHE, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, EWK, EWC, EIS, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 11 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALBHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Chemical (Diversified)
AXPHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Financial Services
CMCOBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/11/202009/18/2020Machinery
CCRNHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Human Resources
DOVBroadening top      08/20/202009/21/2020Machinery
FMCHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Chemical (Basic)
ILMNHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Biotechnology
IPGBroadening bottom      08/26/202009/23/2020Advertising
MCHXRectangle top      08/17/202009/23/2020Advertising
MDTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/02/202009/18/2020Medical Supplies
MRKHead-and-shoulders top      08/25/202009/18/2020Drug
PAYXBroadening wedge, ascending      08/17/202009/24/2020IT Services
TERRectangle bottom      09/08/202009/24/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TJXHorn top      08/31/202009/14/2020Retail Store
TSCORectangle bottom      09/08/202009/24/2020Retail Building Supply
TZOODead-cat bounce      09/21/202009/21/2020Internet

 

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Thursday 9/24/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Still Bearish

The index dropped by -3.0% or -330.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 35 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.7% on 17 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 18 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/352 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/115 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

The chart pattern indicator (not shown) has hit 0 again. That's a signal the bearishness will continue.

This chart shows a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

In faded blue is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. That was on Monday and the index made a strong move upward.

Now the index is showing a complex head-and-shoulders top. This one has two left shoulders and two right ones, with a single head in between.

It has broken out downward and the index has responded by falling, fast.

Just a guess, but I think the index has fallen far enough, so I'm looking for a bounce on Thursday. The above probabilities say I'm wrong. I guess that the employment picture and a resurgence of Covid-19 also suggest I'm wrong.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 260 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADBE, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALB, ADS, ALL, AMED, AEE, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APA, ATR, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVY, AVA, BMI, BLL, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, BG, COG, CAL, CLS, CF, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CAG, COP, GLW, COTY, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CMI, CW, DHR, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DOV, DUK, BOOM, EIX, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, FB, FICO, FIS, FLEX, FLIR, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FDP, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GL, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HELE, HSY, HOLX, HD, HOV, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IBKR, JBLU, KMT, KMB, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, LEN, L, LOW, MCHX, MAS, MSFT, MUR, MYL, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NBL, NUS, OXY, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PDLI, PRFT, PG, PRU, PHM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RLI, RHI, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SAIC, SRE, SO, SCCO, SCS, TXN, TXT, TMO, TJX, TG, UGI, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WMB, WSM, XEL, XLNX, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWL, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,681.56    
 Monthly S1  10,157.27  475.72   
 Weekly S2  10,233.98  76.71   
 Daily S2  10,386.86  152.87   
 Weekly S1  10,433.49  46.63   
 Daily S1  10,509.92  76.44   
 Low  10,612.91  102.99   
 Close  10,632.99  20.08   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  10,735.98  102.99   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,746.27  10.30   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,787.47  41.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,828.67  41.20   
 Weekly Pivot  10,839.45  10.79   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  10,859.04  19.59   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  10,950.82  91.78   
 High  10,962.03  11.21   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  11,038.96  76.93   
 Daily R2  11,085.10  46.14   
 Monthly Pivot  11,115.67  30.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  11,444.92  329.26   
 Monthly R1  11,591.38  146.46   
 Monthly R2  12,549.78  958.39   

Wednesday 9/23/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The last active signal was bearish, as the vertical red line shows.

The indicator is in the neutral zone right now (neither bullish nor bearish). However the index is still trending lower as the chart shows.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 55% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 51%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both the red and blue lines followed the index lower, measured from a week ago to today.

The red line made a dramatic drop this week, too.

Both charts this week are bearish, suggesting more of a downward move coming. That makes sense because a second Covid-19 wave is striking countries and it's only a matter of a month or so before we see up-ticks happening here. We're already seeing that, but it'll get worse as it gets colder.

Of course, we might get a snap-back rally which would change the outlook. The CPI suggests that because it's in the neutral zone (meaning it has recovered from its lows).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 197 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AJRD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AYX, AEL, AXP, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ARW, AVA, BLL, BAX, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CE, CNC, CENX, CF, CRL, CTXS, CNO, CAG, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CCRN, CCK, DECK, XRAY, DFS, D, ETFC, EXP, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EIGI, EOG, EPAM, EQT, EL, FICO, FOE, FIVN, FLEX, FLIR, FMC, FORM, FCX, FDP, GME, GE, GIS, GPN, GPRO, GES, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HP, HSIC, DHI, HUBG, IDXX, ILMN, INOV, IBP, ITGR, TILE, IPG, INTU, NVTA, KALU, KBH, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LRCX, LEN, LNC, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NXGN, NBL, JWN, OXY, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PYPL, PDLI, POR, PFG, PRU, PHM, RMBS, RJF, REV, SLB, NOW, SLGN, SXI, TGT, TPX, TXT, TJX, TOL, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VRTX, WU, WLK, WSM, IYM, IAI, ITB, IEZ, FDN, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SLV, IGE, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EWD, TUR, PXJ, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/22/20. Slider Quiz! Triple Bottoms

The index dropped by -1.8% or -509.72 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 87 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 50 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.6% on 37 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 214/369 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the triple bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 318 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, APD, ATSG, ALK, AA, ADS, AEE, AEO, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, ANTM, AON, APA, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ASH, ADP, AVY, BLL, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BLDR, COG, CX, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CSCO, CNA, CL, CMCO, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CCK, DECK, XRAY, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DUK, ETFC, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, EXC, EZPW, FFIV, FB, FDX, FOE, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GPS, IT, GD, GL, HBI, THG, HIG, HE, HQY, HSII, HELE, HSIC, DHI, HUBG, ILMN, INFN, NSP, ITGR, TILE, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, LZB, LEN, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MAS, MA, MDC, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYL, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NBL, JWN, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PATK, PDLI, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PFG, PRU, PEG, PHM, RL, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, ROK, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SUM, TFX, TPX, TXT, TKR, TJX, TOL, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, V, VC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WSM, WWW, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XRT, SPY, XLU, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,179.11    
 Daily S2  26,346.29  167.19   
 Monthly S1  26,663.40  317.11   
 Low  26,715.15  51.75   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S1  26,747.00  31.85   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S2  26,790.01  43.02   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  26,968.86  178.84   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,009.12  40.26   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,099.93  90.81   
 Daily Pivot  27,115.85  15.92   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,147.70  31.85   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,190.74  43.04   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  27,484.71  293.97   
 High  27,484.71  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  27,516.56  31.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  27,666.81  150.26   
 Weekly R1  27,845.66  178.84   
 Daily R2  27,885.41  39.76   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly Pivot  27,931.38  45.96   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  28,415.67  484.30   
 Weekly R2  28,543.61  127.94   
 Monthly R2  29,683.65  1,140.03   

Monday 9/21/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, the index made a double bottom. It confirmed when the index closed above the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Although I don't show it on the chart, the confirmation let to a whopper of a move up, easily fulfilling the measure rule (the height of the double bottom added to the breakout price to get a price target).

I think the index is going to recover but I could be wrong. In view of my belief, I used a price mirror to show what I think will happen.

That appears at C.

You can see that I reflected the last month or so across the green line.

In the short term, I expect weakness in the indices. It might drop more, but I think it'll move sideways and then start to perk up.

Despite the way I've drawn this, I don't expect the index to reach the height of the September peak. More likely, it'll fall short of that peak.

Of course, with the death of RGB (Ginsburg), there's no telling what kind of fireworks are going to happen.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 327.69 points.
Tuesday: Up 2.27 points.
Wednesday: Up 36.78 points.
Thursday: Down 130.4 points.
Friday: Down 244.56 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 8.22 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 60.27 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.5 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     51.8% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     62.8% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     7.5% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     51.4% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,239  27,448  27,697  27,907  28,156 
Weekly  26,960  27,309  27,837  28,185  28,714 
Monthly  26,349  27,003  28,101  28,755  29,854 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,255  3,287  3,325  3,357  3,395 
Weekly  3,210  3,265  3,347  3,401  3,483 
Monthly  3,104  3,212  3,400  3,508  3,696 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,466  10,630  10,804  10,967  11,141 
Weekly  10,287  10,540  10,893  11,146  11,498 
Monthly  9,735  10,264  11,169  11,698  12,603 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, AMED, ABC, AAPL, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BG, CACI, CLS, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHS, CGNX, CL, CAG, CSOD, COST, CREE, CRH, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, ETFC, EXP, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FWRD, GIS, GNW, GOOGL, HE, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HUBG, HURC, IDA, ILMN, INFN, INOV, NSP, IBKR, TILE, IPI, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, LZB, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SCCO, SR, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TOL, RIG, TREX, V, WERN, WU, WMB, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHI, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EPP, EZA, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Air Transport
2. Shoe2. Homebuilding
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor
4. Retail Building Supply4. Retail Building Supply
5. Air Transport5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Semiconductor6. E-Commerce
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Internet
8. Chemical (Basic)8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Chemical (Diversified)9. Shoe
10. Machinery10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Chemical (Specialty)56. Advertising
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/18/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMZN, AMED, APOG, ATR, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, CDNS, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLF, CRH, CSGS, DECK, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FICO, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HD, DHI, ITW, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, K, KBAL, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, MANH, MAS, MDC, MSFT, MLHR, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NUS, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PHM, RJF, REV, RLI, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TECH, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VMI, VC, WLK, WEX, WSM, WDAY, IYM, ITB, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, QLD, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADSTriangle, symmetrical      08/11/202009/17/2020Information Services
AFGRoof      08/25/202009/17/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CALFlag, high and tight      08/03/202009/17/2020Shoe
CFHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/01/202009/17/2020Chemical (Basic)
CRLPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Biotechnology
GLWDiamond top      08/21/202009/16/2020Telecom. Equipment
CRHPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Cement and Aggregates
CWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/10/202009/16/2020Machinery
DECKPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Shoe
FISVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/20/202009/17/2020IT Services
FDPTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/202009/17/2020Food Processing
DHIPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
NVTAPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Medical Services
KBHPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
LHXDiamond top      08/26/202009/16/2020Aerospace/Defense
LENPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
MHOPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
MDCPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
PCGRectangle bottom      07/13/202009/11/2020Electric Utility (West)
POLTriangle, ascending      07/31/202009/17/2020Chemical (Specialty)
PHMPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
REVTriangle, symmetrical      07/15/202009/16/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
TPXPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
TOLPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding

 

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Thursday 9/17/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.2% or -139.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 120 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 51 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 69 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/352 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The last two days have formed a chart pattern. What's its name? Do you know?

The pattern's name is a mouthful: broadening formation, right-angled and descending. I show it in red on the chart.

The chart pattern indicator has turned bullish today but the signal can disappear for up to a week. I mention that because the index is resting on the bottom portion of the chart pattern.

It might have pierced the bottom line, but it's hard to tell in this chart. Anyway, these patterns breakout upward 64% of the time. So my guess is the index will bounce off the line and rise tomorrow, heading for the top trendline.

The above stats disagree with that assessment. And it's possible that news of people unemployed might send a shockwave through the markets at the open tomorrow, so anything goes these days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AMD, AMZN, AMED, AEL, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKH, BA, CBT, COG, CDNS, CAL, CNP, CENX, CRL, CSCO, CTXS, ED, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DECK, ^DJT, EXP, EIX, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HLIT, HTLD, HD, DHI, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, INOV, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, LEN, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDCA, MSFT, MYGN, CNR, NFLX, NEU, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, POL, PHM, KWR, QCOM, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, SO, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TPX, TDC, TXN, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VRSN, VC, WLK, WSM, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWU, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XHB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,938.16    
 Weekly S2  10,454.51  516.35   
 Monthly S1  10,494.31  39.80   
 Weekly S1  10,752.49  258.18   
 Daily S2  10,915.12  162.63   
 Daily S1  10,982.79  67.68   
 Weekly Pivot  11,026.01  43.22   
 Low  11,046.43  20.42   
 Close  11,050.47  4.04   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,114.11  63.64   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,122.44  8.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,145.92  23.48   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,169.41  23.48   
 Daily R1  11,181.78  12.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  11,222.08  40.30   
 High  11,245.42  23.34   
 Monthly Pivot  11,284.19  38.77   
 Daily R2  11,313.10  28.91   
 Weekly R1  11,323.99  10.89   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  11,597.51  273.52   
 Monthly R1  11,840.34  242.83   
 Monthly R2  12,630.22  789.87   

Wednesday 9/16/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal which has been in place for a month, it still active. It's the latest signal from the indicator. If the market listens to the indicator, then it's bearish.

The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart, which is the CPI, has turned down again. That suggests more weakness to come.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 51% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 55%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

A snapshot taken a week ago compared to today shows the two indicators have improved. Not by a lot, mind you, but some.

The two lines have bounced off a low and that's bullish.

Incidentally, the red lines show bearish divergence which is now convergent. I made a brief mention of divergence a week ago.

So the prior chart is bearish and this one is bullish. I put more weight on the prior chart than this one. All these two indicators show is that they move in step with the index. And that's no help at all. So the CPI chart remains bearish, but I raised my price targets for the indices. Go figure. My reasoning: Price will trend until it ends. And it hasn't ended yet.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, AJRD, AES, AFL, ADS, AEL, AFG, AXS, BLL, BAX, BZH, BERY, BIG, CPB, CX, CENX, CF, CRL, CIEN, CNA, CNO, CL, CAG, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, DTE, EXP, WIRE, RE, EZPW, FICO, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FRD, GME, GPS, GFF, HBI, THG, HQY, HTLD, HP, HD, DHI, HOV, ILMN, IBKR, NVTA, JCOM, JAZZ, KBH, KELYA, LANC, LEN, LNC, LMT, L, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NWL, NI, OGE, ORI, OMI, PATK, PDLI, PICO, POR, PINC, PG, PGR, PRU, PHM, RNG, RCKY, SRE, SLGN, SWX, SWN, STMP, TPR, TECH, TPX, TOL, TRV, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMC, WMT, WERN, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, EWA, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, IBB, PBE, PHO, ROBO, MXI, XLE, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/15/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.2% or 327.69 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 309 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 167 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 142 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 213/368 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring EMC stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 101 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADBE, AKAM, AEO, AXP, AMGN, ARW, AGO, AVY, BLL, BECN, BBBY, CALM, CLGX, COTY, CROX, CCRN, XRAY, DFS, DUK, EBAY, EIGI, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FB, FE, GME, IT, GNW, GES, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HUBG, IPI, INTU, NVTA, KALU, MANH, MA, MDCA, MU, MSFT, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NWL, OXY, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PICO, PPG, PINC, RL, ROG, RES, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SSYS, TECH, TPX, TDC, RIG, UGI, VEEV, V, WERN, WDAY, IYM, IEZ, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWY, EWT, PJP, PHO, ROBO, MXI, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,162.94    
 Monthly S1  27,078.14  915.19   
 Weekly S2  27,123.08  44.94   
 Weekly S1  27,558.20  435.13   
 Daily S2  27,565.39  7.19   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  27,718.74  153.35   
 Open  27,718.74  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  27,779.36  60.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,859.06  79.70   
 Weekly Pivot  27,882.21  23.15   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,902.40  20.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  27,932.71  30.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,945.74  13.03   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  27,993.33  47.59   
 High  28,086.06  92.73   
 Monthly Pivot  28,138.74  52.68   
 Daily R1  28,146.68  7.94   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  28,300.03  153.35   
 Weekly R1  28,317.33  17.30   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  28,641.34  324.00   
 Monthly R1  29,053.94  412.60   
 Monthly R2  30,114.54  1,060.61   

Monday 9/14/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

The top red line, A, I drew from the current day's low to the left. Notice how price rests on it in August and acts as a ceiling of resistance before that (in July). In other words, the line acts as both support and resistance.

The chart pattern indicator (CPI) remains bearish with a reading of something like 36 where 65 is bullish. It suggests the index is going lower.

How much lower?

I drew additional lines of support beneath recent lows. One of these will likely be a turning point.

I show my guess in green. The index will drop to line B and then turn upward. B is a support line, as I mentioned but it also converges with the end of a measured move down chart pattern.

After a measured move down ends, price often bounces up to the corrective phase. I circled that in blue on the chart. And that's why the green line stops there. It's my price target.

Of course, anything can happen to shape the price landscape, especially on a weekend with the election approaching. The index might make a big swing down or up.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 632.42 points.
Wednesday: Up 439.58 points.
Thursday: Down 405.89 points.
Friday: Up 131.06 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 467.67 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 459.58 points or 4.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 85.99 points or 2.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.4% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     51.9% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     10.1% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     63.7% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     6.9% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     52.4% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,267  27,466  27,648  27,847  28,028 
Weekly  27,014  27,340  27,773  28,099  28,532 
Monthly  26,054  26,860  28,030  28,835  30,005 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,282  3,311  3,340  3,370  3,399 
Weekly  3,244  3,292  3,359  3,408  3,474 
Monthly  3,136  3,238  3,413  3,516  3,691 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,567  10,710  10,872  11,015  11,177 
Weekly  10,389  10,621  10,960  11,193  11,532 
Monthly  9,873  10,363  11,219  11,709  12,565 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADBE, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, AEE, AEL, ABC, AMGN, AMN, APOG, AVA, BECN, BRC, BRKS, CENX, CHS, CNA, CAG, CSOD, CR, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, DDS, DRQ, EFX, EQT, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FFG, FISV, FIVN, GME, GPS, GE, GNW, GL, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HNI, HOLX, INTU, K, KMT, KSS, LDOS, L, MANH, MAN, MA, MDCA, MSFT, MLI, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NWL, NUS, ORI, OTEX, OMI, PDCO, PTEN, PDLI, PFE, PCG, POL, PINC, PFG, PGR, RGA, REV, ROG, SIGI, NOW, SLGN, SKX, SO, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, SUM, TPR, RIG, UGI, VEEV, V, WEX, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IEZ, IDU, FXI, IHF, IGV, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, THD, PJP, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Homebuilding2. Semiconductor
3. Semiconductor3. Internet
4. Retail Building Supply4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. E-Commerce
6. E-Commerce6. Healthcare Information
7. Internet7. Retail Building Supply
8. Retail (Special Lines)8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Shoe9. Computer Software and Svcs
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Telecom. Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Insurance (Life)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Apparel
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)53. Natural Gas (Distributor)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Petroleum (Integrated)
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Advertising56. Advertising
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Short ETFs
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/11/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 275 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACN, AYI, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, AMZN, AMED, AEE, AEO, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AMN, APH, APOG, AAPL, ACGL, ASH, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BAH, BRC, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CX, CHKP, CVX, CNA, CAG, CSOD, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CW, DECK, XRAY, ^DJI, DRQ, ETFC, EMR, EQT, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, FB, FDS, FFG, FDX, FIS, FLS, FCX, GME, GPS, IT, GE, GILD, GPN, GL, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, ITW, INFN, INOV, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, INTU, IVC, K, KMT, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, RAMP, LMT, L, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NBL, NVDA, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POL, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PFG, QCOM, DGX, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROG, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SKX, SWN, TPR, AMTD, TFX, TSCO, RIG, TREX, UGI, UPS, VLO, VEEV, V, WRB, WAT, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWP, EWL, EWT, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 1.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 1 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALRMPipe top      08/24/202008/31/2020Computer Software and Svcs
BBBYBroadening top      08/10/202009/09/2020Retail (Special Lines)
CMIBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/18/202009/10/2020Machinery
^DJTDiamond top      08/28/202009/10/2020None
DBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      08/20/202009/09/2020Electric Utility (East)
MSFTPipe top      08/24/202008/31/2020Computer Software and Svcs
PDCOPipe top      08/24/202008/31/2020Medical Supplies
VPipe top      08/24/202008/31/2020Financial Services
IGVPipe top      08/24/202008/31/2020Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 9/10/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.7% or 293.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 16 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 12 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.8% on 4 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 75.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/351 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I saw the triple bottom first when I looked at the chart. It's hard to see, but it's the three Ts at the bottom right of the chart, below the red line.

The chart pattern confirmed when price pierced (and closed above) the blue line at A. This is an unusual confirmation signal. Normally, you wait for a close above the top of the chart pattern. I show that with the orange line, at B. Using that line as confirmation would mean an unusual wait for entry and a loss of potential profit. The height of the pattern is why I chose to use the blue line as the trigger this time. You can think of the line as a neckline (used in head-and-shoulders patterns).

So far, it's worked well. I don't know if we'll get to the orange line at B before we drop below the bottom of the triple bottom, but my guess is yes, we will. I think we've hit a short-term bottom and will recover.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, AKAM, AEO, AEL, AIG, AMGN, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ARW, BECN, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BBW, COG, CVX, CHS, CHD, CL, CMTL, COP, CLR, CR, CCRN, CSGS, DVN, DRQ, EIGI, EPAM, RE, EVH, EXPD, FB, FAST, FFG, FIS, FISV, FLS, FDP, GME, GE, GPN, HLIT, HAYN, HELE, HNI, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KMB, KLAC, LRCX, LNC, L, LXU, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MSFT, NBR, NFLX, NTGR, NEU, NOC, NUS, OXY, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PPL, PGR, QCOM, REV, ROG, ^GSPC, NOW, SKX, SXI, SCS, TKR, TSCO, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VMI, VEEV, V, WEX, WSM, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEO, DDM, IHF, IGV, IYF, XLE, XLF, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,741.41    
 Weekly S2  10,165.64  424.23   
 Monthly S1  10,441.49  275.85   
 Weekly S1  10,653.60  212.11   
 Daily S2  10,862.86  209.26   
 Low  10,970.45  107.59   
 Daily S1  11,002.21  31.76   
 Open  11,064.76  62.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,064.78  0.02   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,093.92  29.14   
 Daily Pivot  11,109.80  15.88   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,123.06  13.26   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  11,141.56  18.50   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  11,217.39  75.83   
 Daily R1  11,249.15  31.76   
 Monthly Pivot  11,257.77  8.62   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  11,356.74  98.97   
 Weekly Pivot  11,363.83  7.09   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  11,851.79  487.96   
 Monthly R1  11,957.85  106.06   
 Weekly R2  12,562.02  604.17   
 Monthly R2  12,774.13  212.11   

Wednesday 9/9/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator says the index is going down, meaning it's still bearish. It attempted to turn bullish about two weeks ago, but failed. Now it's September, the worst performing month of the year.

Of course, I already discussed bearish divergence but that was 3 weeks ago. Seems like a lifetime.

Last week I wrote this: "The two charts are bearish. The prior chart is showing signs of turning bullish again. This one is bearish with that divergence I talked about. Something has to give. My guess is we're going to see the tech stocks get clipped. Maybe not soon but when it happens, there's going to be a rush for the exits and the Nasdaq is going to get hammered. And probably for more than a day."

It surprises me when I'm right...(maybe because I'm frequently wrong).

I'm concerned that the decline might be over (meaning I'm hoping it'll drop more). Circled in blue is a knot of support. Those knots usually turn price upward and are a reliable signal.

This time, though, it looks as if the index is going to drop to the red circle and turn upward there. That's my guess. However, the other indices suggest an upward turn tomorrow (Wednesday) because they are sitting right in a knot of support.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 55% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 48%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The two lines continue to show weakness.

The two charts together continue to point to the indices dropping but I just think there's a lot of support waiting for the indices to bottom before they pile in and push things back up.

That's my plan, anyway.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACIW, ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AEE, AEL, APOG, AMAT, AWI, ASH, ATO, AVA, BMI, BAX, BBBY, BRC, BRKS, CF, CVX, CHS, CNA, CGNX, CMCO, CAG, COP, CLR, CR, CCRN, CSGS, DVN, D, DRQ, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EXC, FAST, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FDP, GE, GIS, GPN, GL, THG, HSC, HIG, HE, HTLD, HNI, HURC, INOV, IPAR, IPI, KALU, KMT, KLAC, LRCX, LAWS, L, LXU, MAN, MRO, MTRN, MDCA, MGEE, MLHR, MLI, MYL, NBR, NOV, NWL, NEU, NBL, OXY, OUT, PTEN, PCG, PPL, PG, RL, RHI, ROG, SEE, SEIC, SLGN, SCCO, SWN, TPR, TECH, RIG, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VMI, VRSN, ZBRA, IYE, IEO, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWP, THD, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IXC, XLE, XLV, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/8/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.6% or -159.42 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 671 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 347 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 324 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 213/367 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Energy East (an actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,596.32    
 Monthly S1  26,364.82  1,768.49   
 Weekly S2  26,797.78  432.96   
 Daily S2  27,237.51  439.73   
 Weekly S1  27,465.54  228.03   
 Low  27,664.68  199.14   
 Daily S1  27,685.41  20.73   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  27,782.08  96.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,998.96  216.87   
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,102.21  103.26   
 Daily Pivot  28,112.58  10.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  28,133.31  20.73   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,205.47  72.16   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  28,332.45  126.97   
 Open  28,341.05  8.60   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  28,539.75  198.70   
 Daily R1  28,560.48  20.73   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  28,987.65  427.17   
 Weekly R1  29,000.21  12.56   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  29,550.58  550.36   
 Weekly R2  29,867.12  316.54   
 Monthly R2  30,967.84  1,100.73   

Monday 9/7/20. Site Support

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free, it's easy, and it supports this site.

    Unfortunately, I think this approach only works for those in the United States.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of it.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AFG, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ATO, BMI, BECN, BIIB, BRKS, BBW, CPB, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLNE, CL, CMCO, CAG, GLW, COST, CRH, DFS, D, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EL, EXPD, FAST, FFG, FIVN, GL, GPRO, EVRG, HQY, HNI, HOV, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KSS, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MU, CNR, NKE, NBL, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PAYX, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, REV, RNG, RLI, RES, SIGI, SWN, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, AMTD, TECH, TXT, RIG, UNM, VLO, VRSN, IAI, IYE, IYH, EWO, EWZ, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO, IXC, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/4/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 243 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AMD, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AEE, AEL, AFG, AMGN, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BIIB, BA, EPAY, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CE, CNC, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, ED, CAG, COP, COST, CR, CRH, CSGS, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, DTE, EMR, WIRE, EIGI, EOG, EL, RE, EXPD, FAST, FFG, FDX, FOE, FE, FIVN, FLS, GL, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HSC, HQY, HSII, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IIIN, INTC, INTU, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MU, MLHR, MCO, MYL, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NKE, NBL, JWN, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PDLI, PRFT, PFE, PICO, PINC, PFG, PG, PGR, KWR, DGX, RL, RGS, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, SCHW, SEIC, SIGI, SCCO, SWX, STMP, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, AMTD, TXT, TG, UNM, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, WAT, WSO, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, IAI, IHI, IHE, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, USO, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AELTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/202009/03/2020Insurance (Life)
AVYTriangle, descending      07/23/202009/01/2020Packaging and Container
CENXPipe bottom      08/17/202008/24/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHSHorn top      08/10/202008/24/2020Apparel
CIENDead-cat bounce      09/03/202009/03/2020Telecom. Equipment
ETFCTriangle, ascending      07/09/202009/02/2020Securities Brokerage
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/202009/01/2020Electric Utility (East)
GMEFlag, high and tight      07/20/202009/03/2020Retail (Special Lines)
ITTriangle, ascending      08/11/202009/03/2020IT Services
HOVFlag, high and tight      07/14/202009/03/2020Homebuilding
INFNDead-cat bounce      09/03/202009/03/2020Telecom. Equipment
IBPRectangle top      08/10/202008/31/2020Retail Building Supply
IPARTriangle, symmetrical      08/11/202009/03/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
KLACTriple top      08/17/202009/02/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSPipe bottom      08/17/202008/24/2020Metal Fabricating
LOWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/27/202009/02/2020Retail Building Supply
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      08/13/202009/03/2020Advertising
MASDouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/18/202009/02/2020Building Materials
MUPipe bottom      08/17/202008/24/2020Semiconductor
MSTriangle, ascending      07/16/202009/01/2020Securities Brokerage
OLNPipe bottom      08/17/202008/24/2020Chemical (Basic)
RLTriangle, symmetrical      07/24/202009/01/2020Apparel
RGSDead-cat bounce      08/31/202008/31/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
SKXTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/202009/03/2020Shoe
TDOCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/21/202009/02/2020Healthcare Information
VLOTriangle, symmetrical      06/19/202009/03/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
WEXPipe bottom      08/17/202008/24/2020Information Services

 

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Thursday 9/3/20. Nasdaq Trending Up

The index climbed by 1.0% or 116.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 238 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 153 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 85 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/350 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing that struck me when I looked at the pic of the Nasdaq on the 10-day chart is how it has climbed steadily.

I measured the slope of trendlines and found that they perform best when they are in the 30 degree range, but 45 is fine, too. The more shallow they are, the better they seem to work.

The Nasdaq is at the perfect angle. I drew two parallel lines to form a channel. What it shows is obvious, that the index is rising.

Will it continue? Let's find out by waiting...

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Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ACIW, AMD, AYX, ABC, APA, AAPL, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BMI, BLL, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, BRC, BBW, CACI, CAL, CENX, CF, CHS, CLF, ED, CLR, GLW, DVN, DFS, ^DJI, DOV, DTE, ETFC, EIGI, EOG, EQT, XOM, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FRD, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOV, IIIN, INTC, TILE, JCOM, KBH, KMT, KSS, LZB, LANC, LAWS, LLY, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MTRX, MU, MLHR, MCO, MS, MLI, MYL, NOV, CNR, JWN, NUS, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, POL, PG, PEG, PHM, RL, RMBS, REV, ROK, ROG, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPX, TXN, RIG, TG, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IYC, IHE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IYZ, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWJ, EWL, PBE, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,821.89    
 Monthly S1  10,939.16  1,117.28   
 Weekly S2  11,262.18  323.02   
 Monthly Pivot  11,334.59  72.41   
 Weekly S1  11,659.31  324.72   
 Weekly Pivot  11,694.66  35.35   
 Daily S2  11,751.01  56.35   
 Low  11,836.18  85.17   
 Daily S1  11,903.73  67.55   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,927.05  23.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,955.12  28.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,983.19  28.07   
 Daily Pivot  11,988.89  5.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  12,047.26  58.37   
 Close  12,056.44  9.18   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  12,074.06  17.62   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  12,091.79  17.73   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  12,127.14  35.35   
 Daily R1  12,141.61  14.47   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  12,226.77  85.17   
 Monthly R1  12,451.86  225.09   
 Monthly R2  12,847.29  395.42   

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Wednesday 9/2/20. Indicators: Bearish, but Who's Listening?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator tried to turn bullish but failed to today (Tuesday). As the chart shows, it's still bearish (neutral, really). The vertical red bar on the far right of the chart confirms this.

It suggests the market is going to dive, but the tech stocks are ignoring the warning and soaring out of sight. There's a crash in them coming, I think, but I haven't specially checked on them. So that's a guess, but the Nasdaq index seems to be in overdrive (Note: I'm talking about the Nasdaq, not the S&P, which the chart shows).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 474 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red indicator line shows bearish divergence and it's quite pronounced. It's heading lower even as the index continues to rise. I mentioned this before (last week) but bearish divergence can last for months before something significant happens.

The above numbers says that nothing has changed from last week.

The two charts are bearish. The prior chart is showing signs of turning bullish again. This one is bearish with that divergence I talked about. Something has to give. My guess is we're going to see the tech stocks get clipped. Maybe not soon but when it happens, there's going to be a rush for the exits and the Nasdaq is going to get hammered. And probably for more than a day.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AJRD, AFL, APD, ATSG, ALRM, AYX, ABC, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ASH, ATO, AXS, BMI, BLL, BSET, BKNG, BRC, BBW, CBT, CAL, CPB, CE, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CNO, CMCO, ED, CAG, CR, CCRN, CTS, DFS, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FTNT, FWRD, GME, GPS, GE, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HL, HUBG, HURC, IEX, IBP, IBKR, TILE, INTU, JCOM, JNJ, KALU, KSS, LAWS, LEG, LLY, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MU, MSFT, MCO, MLI, MYL, CNR, NKE, NI, NBL, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, POL, PPG, PFG, PEG, DGX, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, ROST, RES, SIGI, SWN, SR, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TDOC, TDC, TKR, TJX, TSCO, SLCA, VLO, VEEV, WMT, WEX, WWW, XLNX, IYM, IYC, IYE, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, QTEC, IGV, EWZ, ECH, EZA, TUR, EWU, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XLI, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast September Update

The index dropped by -0.8% or -223.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 516 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 271 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 245 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 212/366 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for September, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 August 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+34.8%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+27.1%),
3. Communication services (+15.1%),
4. Health care (+6.0%),
5. Consumer staples (+3.8%),
6. Materials (+2.6%),
9. Industrials (-4.6%),
8. Real estate (-6.6%),
7. Utilities (-8.8%),
10. Financials (-18.7%),
11. and dead last is energy (-41.6%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+75.2%),
2. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+67.8%),
3. Software (+43.74%),
6. Air freight and logistics (37.8%)
7. Interactive media & Services (+30.5%),
4. Metals & mining (+27.8%),
8. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+23.9%),
?. Entertainment (+20.5%),
5. Life sciences tools & Services (+20.4%),
9. Trading Companies & Distributors (+18.1%),
10. Specialty retail (+17.9%),

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Here's a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, AJRD, AES, AFL, ALRM, AA, ADS, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ASH, AVY, AXS, BLL, BECN, BIG, BBW, CBT, CALM, CE, CNC, CVX, CHD, CLNE, CLX, CLR, COTY, CRH, CCK, CTS, DFS, ^DJI, EMN, EIGI, EQT, FIS, FLS, FWRD, FCX, GME, IT, GE, GNW, GPN, GPRO, HAYN, HSII, HP, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IDXX, IPAR, IPI, JKHY, JNJ, KELYA, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MTRN, MS, MOS, MUR, CNR, NJR, NUS, OXY, ORI, OTEX, PKG, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PPL, PINC, PFG, RGS, REV, RHI, ROG, RES, CRM, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SKX, TECH, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, SLCA, UNM, VLO, VRSN, VC, WU, WLK, WEX, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, DDM, IYH, IAT, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWM, EWY, EWL, EWT, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PHO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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