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Bulkowski’s Chart Pattern Indicator Update

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Market
Dow industrials (^DJI):
Dow transports (^DJT):
Dow utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq composite (^IXIC):
Russell 2000 (^RUT):
S&P 500 (^GSPC):
Wilshire 5000 (^DWC):
As of 01/06/2009
9,015.10 62.21 0.7%
3,717.26 90.72 2.5%
379.53 -2.47 -0.6%
1,652.38 24.35 1.5%
514.71 9.68 1.9%
934.70 7.25 0.8%
9,437.30 94.17 1.0%
YTD
2.7%
5.1%
2.4%
4.8%
3.1%
3.5%
3.9%
Tom’s Targets
9,600 by 03/01/2009
4,000 by 03/01/2009
420 by 03/01/2009
1,800 by 03/01/2009
550 by 03/01/2009
1,000 by 03/01/2009
10,000 by 03/01/2009
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD
Wilder RSI: None YTD

CPI: bullish as of 12/24/2008

Written by and copyright © 2007-2008 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

This page shows two views of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale, updated each Friday evening if time allows (the charts are updated weekly but the signals are updated daily. Read on).

Red vertical lines are bearish signals, green bars are bullish ones. I only show the change in the signals (when a bullish one occurs if it used to be bearish, or the reverse). For more information on the indicator, check here. For information on the NR7 pattern used by the indicator, click here. Signals from the indicator are best interpreted on a weekly basis, not daily, because the signals can change for up to a week. Read the indicator page information for a complete understanding of how the indicator works.

The S&P 500 Index appears as price bars on the top and the indicator is the blue line (which looks black) between the red and green bars near the bottom of the chart. The chart pattern indicator line is not as important as the signals which it generates, but I have included a second chart of the indicator itself so you can check for divergence.

The free Patternz program will calculate the indicator for you. All you have to do is download the data to several hundred stock files... That sounds worse than it is. Be aware that if your data files do not agree with mine, then you may get different results. Even if the files agree, but your stocks have been adjusted for dividends and mine have not, our results may be different.

Signal changes are announced daily on the website at the home page (bottom middle of the page, below the phrase Weekly Updates: (date) as "Market outlook:...", on pages that show the boxes at page top, right, under "Test Portfolios and CPI" as "CPI:...", and in the daily RSS feed. You can sign up for that on this page (see upper right, "Subscribe to RSS feeds").

 

Chart Pattern Indicator Analysis

Chart pattern indicator chart with buy and sell signals highlighted

The charts on this page are updated weekly, usually Friday evening after the markets close, but it could be later. Also, signals can change for up to a week. Thus, a buy signal 7 days ago could disappear or change to a sell signal, depending on the number of NR7 breakouts. If you do not understand this, then read the description of the indicator. Frequently, I will receive a signal change that says, "You should have bought 3 days ago" only I got the signal today. Again, if you do not understand why this happens, then click the above link and read the page, especially the warnings section.

The most recent signal was bullish on 12/24/2008.

Signals that occur within the last 7 days are tentative and should not be relied upon, but they do give hints of coming direction. Signals older than a week are reliable and indicate a potential direction change in the market.

Raw chart pattern indicator chart

Do not be alarmed with the CPI line moving to 50 (neutral) on the last day. That is typical for the indicator, since no NR7 patterns signaled.

Be sure to check for divergence between the CPI line and the index. Divergence often gives hints as to which way the index moves in the future.

Patternz Configuration

I moved the program setup to the cpi.html page. Click the link to be taken there.

Copyright © 2008 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Warning: Dates on calendars are closer than they appear!