As of 08/03/2020
  Indus: 26,664 +236.08 +0.9%  
  Trans: 10,012 +16.91 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -8.43 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,903 +157.53 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 +23.49 +0.7%  
YTD
-6.6%  
-8.2%  
-6.5%  
 +21.5%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow10,600 or 9,400 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,355 or 3,100 by 08/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20
As of 08/03/2020
  Indus: 26,664 +236.08 +0.9%  
  Trans: 10,012 +16.91 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -8.43 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,903 +157.53 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 +23.49 +0.7%  
YTD
-6.6%  
-8.2%  
-6.5%  
 +21.5%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow10,600 or 9,400 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,355 or 3,100 by 08/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20

Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast August Update

 

Released 7/31/2020.

Forecast Updated for August 2020

Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of July 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

The prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 4
chart pattern
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The indicator shows it's neutral with a reading of 36.8, just above the bearish 35 limit. Notice how the thin blue line (chart bottom, CPI indicator line) has taken a dive.

The next chart looks at the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
chart pattern
Because of the steep drop in the Dow, the forecast looks flat (the large swing compressed the scale. See the entire forecast here, without compression).

The red line is the forecast, taken a year end 2019. On this chart, I show where the Dow industrials turned bearish and then bullish in what I think of as a flash crash.

The index climbed up to the forecast in June, but couldn't hold it.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
chart pattern
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq. Again, we're looking at where the index turned bearish and then bullish. The index is well above the forecast for the year (red line). If this is right, then the Nasdaq peaked in July and will slide now going into year's end.
The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
chart pattern
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
Again, I show where the index turned bearish and then bullish. Notice that it has rejoined the prediction. It should go flat until year end.
The end.

See Also

 
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