|
Written and copyright © 2013 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Tuesday 5/28/13. Trading Tuesday: Dow
The index climbed by 0.1% or 8.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1224 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.6% on 628 occasions.
Average loss was -0.7% on 596 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 51/74 or 68.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 13/23 or 56.5% of the time.
Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.
I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's trading.
Look first at tops B and C. Is that a double top? No. Why not? Because the pattern is not confirmed as a valid one. Confirmation occurs when the index closes below the valley between
the two tops. That never happened before price closed above the top of the pattern.
Pattern A is a right-angled and descending broadening formation. This could also be a triple top, but it's also unconfirmed. By the close, the broadening pattern
did not breakout yet, but it appears to be heading toward an upward one.
Will Tuesday close higher or lower? The daily chart suggests a lower close since the index has been trending down the last few days. The probabilities say it'll close higher.
Candles show a hammer, but that candle acts as a bullish reversal 60% of the time. So, I'll vote for a higher close.
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2013 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 14,016.23 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 14,659.67 | 643.43 |
|
| Weekly S2 | 14,979.74 | 320.07 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 15,101.03 | 121.29 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 15,141.42 | 40.39 |
|
| Daily S2 | 15,162.71 | 21.29 |
|
| Low | 15,199.63 | 36.92 |
|
| Daily S1 | 15,232.91 | 33.28 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 15,240.55 | 7.64 |
Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 15,253.18 | 12.64 |
|
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 15,265.82 | 12.64 |
|
| Daily Pivot | 15,269.82 | 4.00 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
| Open | 15,290.74 | 20.92 |
|
| Close | 15,303.10 | 12.36 |
|
| High | 15,306.74 | 3.64 |
Yes! The High is close to the Close. |
| Daily R1 | 15,340.02 | 33.28 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 15,341.91 | 1.89 |
Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1. |
| Daily R2 | 15,376.93 | 35.02 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 15,503.59 | 126.66 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 15,704.08 | 200.49 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 15,744.47 | 40.39 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 16,185.83 | 441.37 |
|
Saturday 5/25/13. Saturday Supplement
 
 
 
 
This is a reminder that I have four new books available this year, pictured above. From left to right, there's Trading Basics, Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading, and
Swing and Day Trading. Those three books are part of the Evolution of a Trader series that covers the four trading styles: buy and hold, position, swing, and day trading.
The three books in the Evolution of a Trader series were written for people unfamiliar with the inner workings of the stock market, but will curl the toes of professionals, too.
Research is used to prove the ideas discussed, but is presented in an easy to understand and light-hearted manner. You will find the books to be as entertaining as they are
informative and packed with moneymaking tips and ideas. Use the ideas presented here to hone your trading style and improve your success.
Whether you are a novice who has never purchased a stock but wants to, or a professional money manager who trades daily, these books are a necessary addition to any market
enthusiast's bookshelf.
The book on the right is the Visual Guide to Chart Patterns.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns is a concise and accessible visual guide to identifying, understanding, and using chart patterns to predict the direction and extent of price moves.
Packed with visual learning enhancements and exercises, this innovative book helps savvy investors and professionals alike master the essential skills of chart pattern recognition.
Nearly 200 color charts assist in providing a step-by-step approach to finding chart patterns, interpreting them, and following them. Popular patterns such as head-and-shoulders,
double tops and bottoms, triangles, gaps, flags, and pennants are just a few of the many patterns explored throughout the book.
For the sophisticated trader or investor, the book also provides statistical research to support the claims of pattern behavior, trading signals, and setups, in an easy to understand way.
For a detailed look at each book, visit my books page. Make my publisher happy and buy a dozen of each (it'll also help me repay the advance).
Give them to your neighbors, friends, enemies...go crazy.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 5/24/13. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 625 stocks searched, or 2.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/16/2013 and 05/23/2013. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $59.16
1 Month average volatility: $2.16. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $63.71 or 7.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 37.29%
Volume: 1,391,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 925,257 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/06/2013 to 05/13/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 70% of the time.
American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $48.28
1 Month average volatility: $0.64. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $49.83 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.12%
Volume: 2,908,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,688,723 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/12/2013 to 05/22/2013
Performance rank: 1 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 22%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Pullbacks occur 50% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 55% of the time.
Arkansas Best (ABFS)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $17.63
1 Month average volatility: $0.95. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $14.69 or 16.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 84.61%
Volume: 603,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 469,325 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/15/2013 to 05/21/2013
Performance rank: 1 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 69%. Throwbacks occur 54% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 90% of the time.
Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $71.07
1 Month average volatility: $1.20. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $67.69 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.23%
Volume: 861,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,139,732 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/25/2013 to 05/22/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $58.95
1 Month average volatility: $0.87. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $61.00 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.80%
Volume: 7,343,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,156,997 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2013 to 05/17/2013
Performance rank: 1 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 22%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Pullbacks occur 50% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 55% of the time.
Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $49.96
1 Month average volatility: $0.95. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $51.96 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 39.48%
Volume: 921,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,250,891 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 04/11/2013 to 05/20/2013
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $26.98
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $27.99 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.32%
Volume: 559,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 469,825 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 04/30/2013 to 05/17/2013
Performance rank: 2 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 18%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 59% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 73% of the time.
Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $47.81
1 Month average volatility: $0.92. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $45.26 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.38%
Volume: 615,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 849,366 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/11/2013 to 05/23/2013
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
MannKind Corp (MNKD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $6.85
1 Month average volatility: $0.28. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $5.68 or 17.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 196.54%
Volume: 19,966,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 6,073,409 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/26/2013 to 05/22/2013
Performance rank: 1 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 69%. Throwbacks occur 54% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 90% of the time.
New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $45.88
1 Month average volatility: $0.80. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $47.65 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.80%
Volume: 117,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 158,738 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/10/2013 to 05/23/2013
Performance rank: 19 out of 21. Breakout is downward 66% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 20%. Pullbacks occur 65% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 32% of the time.
Palomar Medical Technologies Inc (PMTI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $13.58
1 Month average volatility: $0.15. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $13.09 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 47.45%
Volume: 77,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 193,280 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/01/2013 to 05/23/2013
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
PetMed Express Inc. (PETS)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $13.07
1 Month average volatility: $0.43. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $12.04 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.75%
Volume: 130,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 295,737 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/06/2013 to 05/23/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $21.78
1 Month average volatility: $0.46. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $20.23 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.45%
Volume: 425,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 121,234 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 04/22/2013 to 05/22/2013
Performance rank: 8 out of 23. Breakout is upward 69% of the time. Average rise: 36%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 53% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 81% of the time.
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $41.79
1 Month average volatility: $0.67. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $43.35 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.70%
Volume: 6,130,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 4,263,674 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 05/09/2013 to 05/17/2013
Performance rank: 15 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 18%. Break-even failure rate: 14%. Pullbacks occur 59% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 69% of the time.
Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $42.44
1 Month average volatility: $1.60. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $38.88 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 34.77%
Volume: 2,032,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,626,215 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/08/2013 to 05/21/2013
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
United Online (UNTD)
Industry: Internet
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $6.37
1 Month average volatility: $0.18. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $6.73 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.95%
Volume: 713,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 610,474 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/11/2013 to 05/23/2013
Performance rank: 7 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 76% of the time.
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $87.31
1 Month average volatility: $1.00. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $89.82 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.42%
Volume: 5,157,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 3,626,918 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/08/2013 to 05/22/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 8%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 72% of the time.
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index fund (FXI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 617
Close as of 05/23/2013: $37.18
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $38.07 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.08%
Volume: 28,755,200 shares
3 month avg volume: 16,011,949 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/08/2013 to 05/20/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 8%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 72% of the time.
Written and copyright © 2013 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
|
. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.
on 