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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 03/25/2015
17,719 -292.60 -1.6%
8,727 -180.99 -2.0%
582 -6.77 -1.1%
4,877 -118.21 -2.4%
2,061 -30.45 -1.5%
YTD
-0.6%
-4.5%
-5.8%
3.0%
0.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 03/10/2015
18,300 or 17,250 by 04/01/2015
9,200 or 8,600 by 04/01/2015
550 or 615 by 04/01/2015
5,100 or 4,800 by 04/01/2015
2,150 or 2,025 by 04/01/2015
Mutt Losers: None YTD
Mutt Winners: None YTD

  Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You and you alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Thursday 3/26/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.4% or -118.21 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 29 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 11 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 83/138 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I can't say much about what happened today. The chart tells the tale, really. The Nasdaq just dropped in a nice run down.

The above probabilities suggest that tomorrow we'll see a higher close. I'm not so sure. It looks like the index broke through support at 4900. It would make sense that you'd see a snap-back rally, and that has happened often enough (where the next day we get a triple digit rise in the Dow). But we could just as easily continue down if the market is spooked by the possibility of a weakening economy.

Take your pick.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,721.15    
 Weekly S2  4,782.87  61.72   
 Daily S2  4,789.69  6.83   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly S1  4,798.83  9.14   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  4,829.69  30.86   
 Daily S1  4,833.11  3.41   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  4,876.52  43.41   
 Low  4,876.52  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  4,919.93  43.41   
 Monthly Pivot  4,920.49  0.55   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,926.27  5.78   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  4,935.92  9.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,941.64  5.72   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,957.01  15.37   
 Daily R1  4,963.35  6.34   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  4,982.74  19.40   
 Monthly R1  4,998.17  15.43   
 Open  5,002.86  4.69   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly R1.
 High  5,006.76  3.90   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  5,050.17  43.41   
 Weekly R2  5,088.97  38.79   
 Monthly R2  5,119.83  30.86   

Wednesday 3/25/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see in this figure of the CPI, it has formed an unconfirmed double top. The two peaks in February and March give it away. What does this mean?

The indicator will drop, of course, and it's already begun. But is that a cause for concern? I don't think so. In fact, based on my recent stock purchases, I'm betting it's not.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The indicator is bullish as the green bars show. I think today's move down is just traders reacting to the latest news, and not the start of a new downtrend.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/24/15. Dow: Ascending Triangle

The index dropped by -0.1% or -11.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1250 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 650 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 600 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 90/147 or 61.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 23/43 or 53.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The trend has moved upward for over a week now, as the blue line indicates. Maybe that's a turquoise line.

An ascending triangle I show highlighted in red. The index broke out downward from this triangle, suggesting a bearish turn. The index closes near the low for the day, too. I see support just below 18,000, so it doesn't look good for a rebound. But if the index does rebound, then maybe it'll hit that turquoise line.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,340.25    
 Weekly S2  17,503.85  163.60   
 Monthly S1  17,728.14  224.29   
 Weekly S1  17,809.94  81.80   
 Weekly Pivot  18,003.62  193.67   
 Monthly Pivot  18,008.39  4.77   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S2  18,056.11  47.73   
 Daily S1  18,086.08  29.96   
 Close  18,116.04  29.96   
 Low  18,116.04  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Open  18,136.73  20.69   
 Daily Pivot  18,146.00  9.27   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,150.38  4.38   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,160.98  10.61   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,171.59  10.61   
 Daily R1  18,175.97  4.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  18,205.93  29.96   
 Daily R2  18,235.89  29.96   
 Weekly R1  18,309.71  73.82   
 Monthly R1  18,396.28  86.57   
 Weekly R2  18,503.39  107.10   
 Monthly R2  18,676.53  173.14   

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Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.