Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/05/2021
  Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%  
  Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%  
  Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%  
YTD
 +2.9%  
 +9.0%  
-5.9%  
 +0.2%  
 +2.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021  
  Up arrow32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow850 or 770 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/5/21
As of 03/05/2021
  Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%  
  Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%  
  Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%  
YTD
 +2.9%  
 +9.0%  
-5.9%  
 +0.2%  
 +2.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021  
  Up arrow32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow850 or 770 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/5/21

 

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Monday 3/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

On this chart, I highlight a chart patterns called a broadening top (A).

That chart pattern has price following two trendlines. One slopes upward and the one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge.

The breakout from this pattern is upward 60% of the time.

Will this one breakout upward, too? Here's a hint: Look at point B. Notice how price has dropped and appears to be moving back up. It's too early to tell for sure, but B looks to me like a particle decline.

A partial decline appears in some patterns (only a few, on a regular basis, like your broadening patterns) when price leaves the top trendline, heading down. It drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An immediate upward breakout follows 72% of the time. An upward breakout looks like it's about to happen in this case, but only time will say if that's what happens.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz. It has a new feature (Main Form, Seasonality menu) called "Best Trading Time." This was inspired by Abe M. It allows you to ask the program, "What's the best time to buy if I want to make x% in y price bars?" (such as 5% in 10 bars or 100% in a year).

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 603.14 points.
Tuesday: Down 143.99 points.
Wednesday: Down 121.43 points.
Thursday: Down 345.95 points.
Friday: Up 572.16 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 563.93 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 272.19 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 30.79 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.6% down from the high of 32,009.64 on 02/24/2021.
     5.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     8.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     4.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 3,950.43 on 02/16/2021.
     4.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,468  30,982  31,281  31,795  32,095 
Weekly  30,117  30,806  31,237  31,927  32,358 
Monthly  29,179  30,338  31,174  32,332  33,168 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,686  3,764  3,808  3,886  3,929 
Weekly  3,635  3,739  3,827  3,930  4,018 
Monthly  3,611  3,727  3,839  3,954  4,066 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,209  12,564  12,753  13,109  13,297 
Weekly  11,769  12,344  12,973  13,549  14,177 
Monthly  11,386  12,153  13,164  13,931  14,942 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANIK, APA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BA, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EL, FEYE, FLEX, FCX, IT, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IVC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, RGS, ROG, SLGN, SWN, SRDX, TER, TXN, TSCO, RIG, TG, VEEV, WSO, WLK, WEX, XEL, IYM, IYC, IHE, FXI, IYZ, EWK, EEM, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, PPA, IEV, MXI, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Apparel
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Apparel4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Securities Brokerage5. Shoe
6. Shoe6. Petroleum (Producing)
7. Petroleum (Integrated)7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. Securities Brokerage
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Retail Building Supply
51. Internet51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Retail Building Supply52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. E-Commerce58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/5/21. Home Front Update. I Have Water!

Picture of the my broken pipes

No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today's activity went.

I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.

Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up. I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I'd cut earlier to make then 'square' and finished off the next burst pipe.

After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I'd made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with 1/4 turn things). All looked good.

Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.

However, my master bath faucet didn't work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn't change anything. I scratched my head over that.

Picture of the my broken pipes

I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze (inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).

I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.

In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.

All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!

I'd like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.

Mary Ann Binkowski (cousin who offered to help)
David Bulkowski (brother and sympathetic ear. Sent critical parts to fix my leaks)
Steve Murray (neighbor who has an air compressor which worked)
Phil Murphy (neighbor who has an air compressor which didn't work -- couldn't couple to my plumbing)
Ronda Palm (friend who lent a sympathetic ear and offer to help)
Rico (gave me a Christmas present of a case of water which I used first and another case a week or so ago. Both of which made this disaster survivable)
Larry Rivera (neighbor. I used him as a water source. Twice)
Mark Theriault (email contact and the first to offer help. He spent his own money to send me a part to fix the leak!)
Karen Wasserman (Production manager (editor) of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine who also offered to help)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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Thursday 3/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.7% or -361.04 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 24 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.9% on 14 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 10 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/370 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Starting on the left, there's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that's in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better if it's more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).

What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That's a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4. Of course, I'm not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached 13,000.

On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I'm looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,195.90    
 Weekly S2  12,499.85  303.95   
 Monthly S1  12,596.83  96.98   
 Daily S2  12,744.33  147.50   
 Weekly S1  12,748.80  4.47   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  12,871.04  122.24   
 Low  12,995.07  124.03   
 Close  12,997.75  2.68   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,121.78  124.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,139.26  17.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,183.79  44.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,228.33  44.54   
 Daily R1  13,248.49  20.16   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  13,252.93  4.44   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  13,336.25  83.32   
 High  13,372.52  36.27   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  13,385.97  13.45   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  13,499.23  113.26   
 Weekly R1  13,501.88  2.65   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  13,786.90  285.02   
 Weekly R2  14,006.01  219.11   
 Monthly R2  14,576.04  570.03   

 

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