Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/05/2019
  Indus: 27,678 +28.01 +0.1%  
  Trans: 10,575 +0.30 +0.0%  
  Utils: 857 +1.06 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 8,571 +4.03 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,117 +4.67 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.6%  
 +15.3%  
 +20.2%  
 +29.2%  
 +24.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019
As of 12/05/2019
  Indus: 27,678 +28.01 +0.1%  
  Trans: 10,575 +0.30 +0.0%  
  Utils: 857 +1.06 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 8,571 +4.03 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,117 +4.67 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.6%  
 +15.3%  
 +20.2%  
 +29.2%  
 +24.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019

 

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Friday 12/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/201912/05/2019Telecom. Equipment
AMNRectangle top      11/08/201912/05/2019Human Resources
AXEBroadening top      11/15/201912/03/2019Electronics
ARWDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/20/201912/03/2019Electronics
ASHFlag      11/21/201912/02/2019Chemical (Basic)
BLLTriangle, symmetrical      11/12/201912/05/2019Packaging and Container
CIENDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/13/201911/29/2019Telecom. Equipment
CTSHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/07/201912/05/2019IT Services
CLRTriangle, symmetrical      11/07/201912/05/2019Petroleum (Producing)
DTEHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/29/201912/03/2019Electric Utility (Central)
DUKHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/12/201912/03/2019Electric Utility (East)
HPTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/201912/05/2019Petroleum (Producing)
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/201912/05/2019Food Processing
MTRNTriangle, symmetrical      10/24/201912/05/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
ASGNRectangle top      11/11/201912/05/2019Human Resources
OUTRectangle bottom      11/06/201912/05/2019Advertising
PCGFlag, high and tight      10/28/201912/05/2019Electric Utility (West)
PGRTriangle, symmetrical      10/11/201912/05/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KWRHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/21/201912/03/2019Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/21/201912/03/2019Apparel
RHIRectangle top      10/30/201912/05/2019Human Resources
CRMScallop, ascending and inverted      10/23/201912/04/2019E-Commerce
SOTriangle, ascending      11/01/201912/05/2019Electric Utility (East)
SCSTriangle, ascending      10/21/201912/05/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
TSCORectangle top      10/24/201912/05/2019Retail Building Supply
RIGTriangle, symmetrical      08/15/201912/03/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      10/29/201912/05/2019Building Materials
VMIBroadening bottom      11/12/201912/05/2019Metal Fabricating

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/28/2019 and 12/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $8.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.23 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.04%
Volume: 229,600 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2019 to 12/05/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/10/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/09/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 126 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $60.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.55 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.71%
Volume: 240,400 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/08/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $88.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.65 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 63.51%
Volume: 2,311,900 shares. 3 month avg: 173,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $81.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.61 or 3.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.71%
Volume: 358,300 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $73.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.31 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.16%
Volume: 608,900 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/02/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Top

Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 355 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $66.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.52 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 43.85%
Volume: 1,487,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 382 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $36.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.17 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.02%
Volume: 4,964,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 11/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Top

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $62.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.95 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.00%
Volume: 2,882,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $31.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.51 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.59%
Volume: 2,371,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $125.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.85 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.65%
Volume: 901,500 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $89.29
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.28 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.46%
Volume: 3,055,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $38.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.74 or 7.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.40%
Volume: 1,236,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $157.97
1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.85 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.68%
Volume: 64,600 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Materion Corp (MTRN)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 483 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $58.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.31 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.21%
Volume: 121,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $66.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.28 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.79%
Volume: 150,500 shares. 3 month avg: 295,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/11/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $25.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.08 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.02%
Volume: 888,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $9.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.49 or 23.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.82%
Volume: 21,666,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/28/2019 to 12/05/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/24/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/24/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Top

Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $72.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.16 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.07%
Volume: 3,500,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $151.99
1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.01 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.47%
Volume: 135,100 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Top

Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 385 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $112.06
1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.87 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.31%
Volume: 1,296,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $58.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.49 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.08%
Volume: 1,207,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

salesforce com (CRM)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $158.22
1 Month avg volatility: $3.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.24 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.51%
Volume: 7,126,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,417,257 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 12/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

Top

Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $62.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.93 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.90%
Volume: 3,216,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.69 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.01%
Volume: 394,100 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 478 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $96.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.50 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.58%
Volume: 1,151,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,128,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $5.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.73 or 11.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.34%
Volume: 16,483,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 12/03/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $85.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.11 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 44.44%
Volume: 453,700 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 579
12/5/19 close: $142.45
1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.36 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.39%
Volume: 53,900 shares. 3 month avg: 117,540 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Thursday 12/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.5% or 46.03 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 556 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 375 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 181 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 67.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 178/320 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a tight rectangle top chart pattern today (Wednesday). I show that by the two parallel red lines on the chart.

Price breaks out upward 63% of the time from the chart pattern, so that's what I'm expected on Thursday. The above probabilities agree with that assessment. Of course, anything can happen but that's the way to bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,919.07    
 Monthly S1  8,242.87  323.80   
 Weekly S2  8,464.48  221.61   
 Monthly Pivot  8,474.39  9.91   
 Weekly S1  8,515.58  41.19   
 Daily S2  8,535.48  19.90   
 Daily S1  8,551.07  15.60   
 Low  8,552.38  1.31   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  8,557.45  5.07   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,564.79  7.34   
 Close  8,566.67  1.88   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  8,567.98  1.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,568.63  0.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,572.46  3.83   
 Daily R1  8,583.57  11.11   
 High  8,584.88  1.31   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  8,600.48  15.60   
 Weekly Pivot  8,610.74  10.27   
 Weekly R1  8,661.84  51.09   
 Weekly R2  8,757.00  95.17   
 Monthly R1  8,798.19  41.19   
 Monthly R2  9,029.71  231.52   

Wednesday 12/4/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see, the indicator is signaling a red bar on the far right of the chart. It's changed the green bar (bullish) of a few months ago into a bearish signal with today's (Tuesday's) big drop.

However, a large recovery could remove the signal and that can happen for up to a week. So we won't really know if this is as bearish as it seems.

It's my feeling that this is a temporary setback. It's all China trade war related and fears of that come and go. So this will blow over shortly unless Trump wants to deflect more from impeachment.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 25% on 11/27/2019.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 11/27/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines turned down this week compared to a week ago. They are following the index lower.

I am a bit surprised that the more sensitive red line dropped three percentage points from a week ago. That's a big move, suggesting a weakening general market. And maybe that means this retrace has legs.

Of course, time will answer that. It's been 2 months without a significant retrace, so one is overdue.

As I read over my notes, the prior chart suggests a temporary setback in the China trade war. But this chart says a retrace is overdue and might be lasting. I think I've covered the ground adequately! Smiley I'll let you decide which interpretation you like best.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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