As of 06/04/2020   Indus: 26,282 +11.93 +0.0%     Trans: 9,575 +134.48 +1.4%     Utils: 814 -17.21 -2.1%     Nasdaq: 9,616 -67.10 -0.7%     S&P 500: 3,112 -10.52 -0.3%	YTD -7.9%   -12.2%   -7.4%    +7.2%   -3.7%	Targets    Overview: 05/29/2020     27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020   9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020   850 or 750 by 06/15/2020   9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020   3,200 or 2,850 by 06/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 5/15/20

As of 06/04/2020   Indus: 26,282 +11.93 +0.0%     Trans: 9,575 +134.48 +1.4%     Utils: 814 -17.21 -2.1%     Nasdaq: 9,616 -67.10 -0.7%     S&P 500: 3,112 -10.52 -0.3%	YTD -7.9%   -12.2%   -7.4%    +7.2%   -3.7%
Targets    Overview: 05/29/2020     27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020   9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020   850 or 750 by 06/15/2020   9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020   3,200 or 2,850 by 06/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 5/15/20

Friday 6/5/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/28/2020 and 06/04/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 546 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $8.53

1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.96 or 18.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -49.53%

Volume: 279,100 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/22/2020 to 06/04/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 28 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $55.91

1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.91 or 10.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 30.11%

Volume: 952,900 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/18/2020 to 05/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $11.64

1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.41 or 19.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.89%

Volume: 11,422,100 shares. 3 month avg: 8,355,648 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 432 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $16.83

1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.35 or 9.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -17.50%

Volume: 1,017,300 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/20/2020 to 06/01/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $13.00

1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.57 or 18.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -49.20%

Volume: 16,013,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 06/01/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 392 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $2.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.98 or 22.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -21.30%

Volume: 358,800 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 06/02/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 571 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $9.49

1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.01 or 26.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -60.04%

Volume: 1,708,400 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/14/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/14/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 569 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $15.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.20 or 20.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -55.19%

Volume: 3,225,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/14/2020 to 06/01/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Precision Instrument

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 79 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $168.79

1 Month avg volatility: $3.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $160.35 or 5.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 9.98%

Volume: 2,599,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,378,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 05/06/2020 to 06/02/2020

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 267 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $6.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.65 or 21.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -30.39%

Volume: 2,289,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/01/2020 to 06/01/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 161 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $3.12

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.25 or 27.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.85%

Volume: 53,600 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 269 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $16.67

1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.11 or 15.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.35%

Volume: 1,861,600 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/27/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 554 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $8.21

1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.41 or 21.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -51.71%

Volume: 77,912,000 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/02/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 361 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $96.99

1 Month avg volatility: $2.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $91.30 or 5.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.51%

Volume: 8,784,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/08/2020 to 06/03/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 535 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $15.92

1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.41 or 15.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -41.54%

Volume: 1,889,900 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/07/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/07/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 99 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $7.80

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.42 or 17.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 50.87%

Volume: 1,106,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/28/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 270 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $3.66

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.84 or 22.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.15%

Volume: 2,227,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,275,503 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 06/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 101 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $33.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.24 or 7.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.91%

Volume: 1,107,300 shares. 3 month avg: 499,285 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/08/2020 to 06/03/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 524 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $16.44

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.41 or 18.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.04%

Volume: 6,863,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 04/21/2020 to 05/29/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 24 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $114.35

1 Month avg volatility: $5.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.84 or 11.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 27.23%

Volume: 1,256,900 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/18/2020 to 05/26/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 453 out of 582

6/4/20 close: $24.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.33 or 14.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.08%

Volume: 1,618,500 shares. 3 month avg: 772,149 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 06/04/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Thursday 6/4/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's start from the left with a double top. That's DD on the chart. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the horizontal blue line. Judging by its height, it didn't appear to meet the measure rule target (the pattern's height subtracted from the blue line). But it was close

The LHHR pattern is a complex head-and-shoulders bottom. L is the left shoulder, H is a head, and R is the right shoulder. This one met the measure rule target (height added to the top of the pattern) easily enough, within a day or two.

Now we come to the green lines. That's a channel. Price rises bouncing between the two green lines. The index has touched the bottom line. So either it's going to bounce upward off the line or plunge through it. Which way will it be? The above probabilities says there's a 66% chance it'll be upward, so that sounds good to me.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 6/3/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Not much has changed in the CPI pic since yesterday's post. The CPI is pegged at the top of the scale, 100, pinned there by a move up in the index.

In my study of trendlines, those which rise up at 45 degrees or less tend to last the longest. And this is going up at that rate (but it changes with the aspect ratio of your screen versus mine).

Since the green bar on the far right of the chart, the trend has been steady and the slope is good, too.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines have made progress over the last week.

I don't see anything on this chart or the last which would derail upward progress.

Of course, I'm still expecting covid-19 to surge. We're still seeing that in 15 states. With protests and little social distancing, it'll be a surprise if we didn't see more waves of covid. But I don't know if that'll stop the upward rise in the indices. They may choose to ignore it and continue looking 6 months forward.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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