As of 12/05/2019   Indus: 27,678 +28.01 +0.1%     Trans: 10,575 +0.30 +0.0%     Utils: 857 +1.06 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 8,571 +4.03 +0.0%     S&P 500: 3,117 +4.67 +0.2%	YTD  +18.6%    +15.3%    +20.2%    +29.2%    +24.4%	Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019     28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019   11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019   875 or 830 by 12/15/2019   8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019   3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019
Chart pattern indicator: on 12/4/19

As of 12/05/2019   Indus: 27,678 +28.01 +0.1%     Trans: 10,575 +0.30 +0.0%     Utils: 857 +1.06 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 8,571 +4.03 +0.0%     S&P 500: 3,117 +4.67 +0.2%	YTD  +18.6%    +15.3%    +20.2%    +29.2%    +24.4%
Targets    Overview: 11/29/2019     28,600 or 27,600 by 12/15/2019   11,300 or 10,500 by 12/15/2019   875 or 830 by 12/15/2019   8,900 or 8,400 by 12/15/2019   3,250 or 3,075 by 12/15/2019
Chart pattern indicator: on 12/4/19

Friday 12/6/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/28/2019 and 12/05/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $8.91

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.23 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.04%

Volume: 229,600 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2019 to 12/05/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/10/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/09/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 126 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $60.46

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.55 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.71%

Volume: 240,400 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/08/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 16 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $88.80

1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.65 or 3.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 63.51%

Volume: 2,311,900 shares. 3 month avg: 173,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $81.16

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.61 or 3.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.71%

Volume: 358,300 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $73.20

1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.31 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.16%

Volume: 608,900 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/02/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 355 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $66.14

1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.52 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 43.85%

Volume: 1,487,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 382 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $36.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.17 or 5.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.02%

Volume: 4,964,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 11/29/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $62.21

1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.95 or 2.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.00%

Volume: 2,882,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $31.11

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.51 or 8.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.59%

Volume: 2,371,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 440 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $125.36

1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.85 or 2.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.65%

Volume: 901,500 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 362 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $89.29

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.28 or 3.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.46%

Volume: 3,055,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 551 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $38.64

1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.74 or 7.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -19.40%

Volume: 1,236,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 282 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $157.97

1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $151.85 or 3.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.68%

Volume: 64,600 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 483 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $58.13

1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.31 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 29.21%

Volume: 121,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 96 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $66.92

1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.28 or 3.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.79%

Volume: 150,500 shares. 3 month avg: 295,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/11/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 398 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $25.01

1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.08 or 4.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 38.02%

Volume: 888,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $9.78

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.49 or 23.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -58.82%

Volume: 21,666,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/28/2019 to 12/05/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/24/2020 and a 38% chance by 04/24/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 513 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $72.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.16 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 20.07%

Volume: 3,500,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/11/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 539 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $151.99

1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.01 or 6.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.47%

Volume: 135,100 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 385 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $112.06

1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.87 or 8.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.31%

Volume: 1,296,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 304 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $58.39

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.49 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.08%

Volume: 1,207,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 403 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $158.22

1 Month avg volatility: $3.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $149.24 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.51%

Volume: 7,126,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,417,257 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 10/23/2019 to 12/04/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 43%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 169 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $62.76

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.93 or 2.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 42.90%

Volume: 3,216,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $18.39

1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.69 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 24.01%

Volume: 394,100 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 10/21/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 478 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $96.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.50 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.58%

Volume: 1,151,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,128,008 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 10/24/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $5.32

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.73 or 11.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.34%

Volume: 16,483,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 12/03/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 54 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $85.74

1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $81.11 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 44.44%

Volume: 453,700 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/29/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 94 out of 579

12/5/19 close: $142.45

1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.36 or 3.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 28.39%

Volume: 53,900 shares. 3 month avg: 117,540 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 11/12/2019 to 12/05/2019

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Thursday 12/5/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a tight rectangle top chart pattern today (Wednesday). I show that by the two parallel red lines on the chart.

Price breaks out upward 63% of the time from the chart pattern, so that's what I'm expected on Thursday. The above probabilities agree with that assessment. Of course, anything can happen but that's the way to bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/4/19. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As you can see, the indicator is signaling a red bar on the far right of the chart. It's changed the green bar (bullish) of a few months ago into a bearish signal with today's (Tuesday's) big drop.

However, a large recovery could remove the signal and that can happen for up to a week. So we won't really know if this is as bearish as it seems.

It's my feeling that this is a temporary setback. It's all China trade war related and fears of that come and go. So this will blow over shortly unless Trump wants to deflect more from impeachment.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines turned down this week compared to a week ago. They are following the index lower.

I am a bit surprised that the more sensitive red line dropped three percentage points from a week ago. That's a big move, suggesting a weakening general market. And maybe that means this retrace has legs.

Of course, time will answer that. It's been 2 months without a significant retrace, so one is overdue.

As I read over my notes, the prior chart suggests a temporary setback in the China trade war. But this chart says a retrace is overdue and might be lasting. I think I've covered the ground adequately! I'll let you decide which interpretation you like best.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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