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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 01/22/2019
24,404 -301.87 -1.2%
9,822 -189.84 -1.9%
708 1.16 0.2%
7,020 -136.87 -1.9%
2,633 -37.81 -1.4%
YTD
4.6%
7.1%
-0.7%
5.8%
5.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 01/14/2019
24,800 or 22,800 by 02/01/2019
10,100 or 8,850 by 02/01/2019
740 or 680 by 02/01/2019
6,600 or 7,300 by 02/01/2019
2,740 or 2,565 by 02/01/2019

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

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Wednesday 1/23/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

You'll notice that the indicator took a huge dive on Tuesday after the Dow's 300 point plunge.

I expected a retrace and it comes right on time. I don't expect this downturn to be a big give back, but it could see the index (Dow) drop back to 23,500. That's about 2,475 on this chart.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 57% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 60%.
The fewest was 15% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 80% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 496 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 26%.
The peak was 9% on 01/23/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement over a week ago. Today's big drop in the Dow didn't seem to affect the lines much. Yes, there was a drop but not a significant plunge.

However, if the index continues to drop then the lines will react, too, starting with the more sensitive red one.

My guess is that the lines and the index will turn lower, beginning a retrace over the coming week or so.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/18/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 598 stocks searched, or 1.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ASNAHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      11/29/201801/14/2019Apparel
EETriple bottom      12/26/201801/14/2019Electric Utility (West)
EFIIDead-cat bounce      01/16/201901/16/2019Computers and Peripherals
EQTRising wedge      12/24/201801/17/2019Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCPipe bottom      12/26/201801/04/2019Electric Utility (East)
FFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/06/201801/15/2019Insurance (Life)
FEPipe bottom      12/26/201801/04/2019Electric Utility (East)
IVCFlag, high and tight      12/21/201801/16/2019Medical Supplies
LZBPennant      01/09/201901/17/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
NEUHead-and-shoulders top      12/31/201801/14/2019Chemical (Specialty)
PEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/26/201801/14/2019Electric Utility (East)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/10/2019 and 01/17/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $3.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.51 or 18.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.71%
Volume: 2,120,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 11/29/2018 to 01/14/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 409 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $50.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.21 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.74%
Volume: 587,700 shares. 3 month avg: 249,891 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 12/26/2018 to 01/14/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Electronics For Imaging, Inc. (EFII)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 536 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $23.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.14 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.08%
Volume: 1,560,800 shares. 3 month avg: 733,492 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/16/2019 to 01/16/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $20.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.18 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.96%
Volume: 3,904,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 12/24/2018 to 01/17/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $46.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.54 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.04%
Volume: 3,965,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/26/2018 to 01/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $70.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.00 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.22%
Volume: 11,700 shares. 3 month avg: 18,072 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/06/2018 to 01/15/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $38.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.48 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.09%
Volume: 4,620,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/26/2018 to 01/04/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 590 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $5.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.43 or 15.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.33%
Volume: 531,800 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/21/2018 to 01/16/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/06/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/05/2019 and a 38% chance by 05/07/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $29.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.90 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.19%
Volume: 292,000 shares. 3 month avg: 437,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 01/09/2019 to 01/17/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $400.00
1 Month avg volatility: $9.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $421.81 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.93%
Volume: 42,600 shares. 3 month avg: 31,329 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 12/31/2018 to 01/14/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 149 out of 592
1/17/19 close: $52.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.03 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.31%
Volume: 4,588,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,334,326 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/26/2018 to 01/14/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 1/17/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 10.86 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 667 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 385 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 282 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 156/285 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 49/98 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much happens in this pic. I outlined in red a descending triangle. Those breakout downward most often (64% of the time), according to my research. This is not the same pattern that I wrote about two days ago. That pattern was an ascending triangle.

The difference between the two is an ascending triangle has an up-sloping bottom. A descending triangle has a down-sloping top.

$ $ $

I updated the performance statistics of rectangle bottoms.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,794.88    
 Monthly S1  6,414.78  619.91   
 Weekly S2  6,672.52  257.73   
 Monthly Pivot  6,810.08  137.56   
 Weekly S1  6,853.60  43.53   
 Weekly Pivot  6,922.49  68.88   
 Daily S2  6,995.97  73.48   
 Daily S1  7,015.33  19.36   
 Low  7,028.12  12.79   
 Open  7,033.75  5.63   
 Close  7,034.69  0.94   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  7,047.48  12.79   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,047.80  0.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,053.88  6.08   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,059.95  6.08   
 Daily R1  7,066.84  6.89   
 High  7,079.63  12.79   
 Daily R2  7,098.99  19.36   
 Weekly R1  7,103.57  4.58   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  7,172.46  68.88   
 Monthly R1  7,429.98  257.53   
 Monthly R2  7,825.28  395.29   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.