As of 03/05/2021
Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%
Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%
Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%
Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%
S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%
|
YTD
+2.9%
+9.0%
-5.9%
+0.2%
+2.3%
|
|
As of 03/05/2021
Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%
Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%
Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%
Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%
S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%
|
YTD
+2.9%
+9.0%
-5.9%
+0.2%
+2.3%
| |
| ||
I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.
On this chart, I highlight a chart patterns called a broadening top (A).
That chart pattern has price following two trendlines. One slopes upward and the one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge.
The breakout from this pattern is upward 60% of the time.
Will this one breakout upward, too? Here's a hint: Look at point B. Notice how price has dropped and appears to be moving back up. It's too early to tell for sure, but B looks to me like a particle decline.
A partial decline appears in some patterns (only a few, on a regular basis, like your broadening patterns) when price leaves the top trendline, heading down. It drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An immediate upward breakout follows 72% of the time. An upward breakout looks like it's about to happen in this case, but only time will say if that's what happens.
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I released a new version of Patternz. It has a new feature (Main Form, Seasonality menu) called "Best Trading Time." This was inspired by Abe M. It allows you to ask the program, "What's the best time to buy if I want to make x% in y price bars?" (such as 5% in 10 bars or 100% in a year).
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The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
No options expire this week.
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.
Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 30,468 | 30,982 | 31,281 | 31,795 | 32,095 |
Weekly | 30,117 | 30,806 | 31,237 | 31,927 | 32,358 |
Monthly | 29,179 | 30,338 | 31,174 | 32,332 | 33,168 |
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 3,686 | 3,764 | 3,808 | 3,886 | 3,929 |
Weekly | 3,635 | 3,739 | 3,827 | 3,930 | 4,018 |
Monthly | 3,611 | 3,727 | 3,839 | 3,954 | 4,066 |
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 12,209 | 12,564 | 12,753 | 13,109 | 13,297 |
Weekly | 11,769 | 12,344 | 12,973 | 13,549 | 14,177 |
Monthly | 11,386 | 12,153 | 13,164 | 13,931 | 14,942 |
Here are the formulas:
Earnings season is over.
I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.
Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANIK, APA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BA, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EL, FEYE, FLEX, FCX, IT, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IVC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, RGS, ROG, SLGN, SWN, SRDX, TER, TXN, TSCO, RIG, TG, VEEV, WSO, WLK, WEX, XEL, IYM, IYC, IHE, FXI, IYZ, EWK, EEM, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, PPA, IEV, MXI, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.
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-- Thomas Bulkowski
No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today's activity went.
I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.
Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up. I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I'd cut earlier to make then 'square' and finished off the next burst pipe.
After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I'd made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with 1/4 turn things). All looked good.
Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.
However, my master bath faucet didn't work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn't change anything. I scratched my head over that.
I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze (inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).
I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.
In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.
All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!
I'd like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.
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Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
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Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
Starting on the left, there's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that's in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better if it's more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).
What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That's a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4. Of course, I'm not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached 13,000.
On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I'm looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.
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Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).
For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.
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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
© 2021 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
Monthly S2 | 12,195.90 | ||
Weekly S2 | 12,499.85 | 303.95 | |
Monthly S1 | 12,596.83 | 96.98 | |
Daily S2 | 12,744.33 | 147.50 | |
Weekly S1 | 12,748.80 | 4.47 | Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2. |
Daily S1 | 12,871.04 | 122.24 | |
Low | 12,995.07 | 124.03 | |
Close | 12,997.75 | 2.68 | Yes! The Close is close to the Low. |
Daily Pivot | 13,121.78 | 124.03 | |
61.8% Down from Intraday High | 13,139.26 | 17.48 | Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
50% Down from Intraday High | 13,183.79 | 44.54 | |
38.2% Down from Intraday High | 13,228.33 | 44.54 | |
Daily R1 | 13,248.49 | 20.16 | Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
Weekly Pivot | 13,252.93 | 4.44 | Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1. |
Open | 13,336.25 | 83.32 | |
High | 13,372.52 | 36.27 | Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
Monthly Pivot | 13,385.97 | 13.45 | Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High. |
Daily R2 | 13,499.23 | 113.26 | |
Weekly R1 | 13,501.88 | 2.65 | Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
Monthly R1 | 13,786.90 | 285.02 | |
Weekly R2 | 14,006.01 | 219.11 | |
Monthly R2 | 14,576.04 | 570.03 |
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