Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/27/2022
  Indus: 34,161 -7.31 0.0%  
  Trans: 14,810 -218.68 -1.5%  
  Utils: 930 +7.38 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,353 -189.34 -1.4%  
  S&P 500: 4,327 -23.42 -0.5%  
YTD
-6.0%  
-10.1%  
-5.2%  
-14.7%  
-9.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2022  
  Up arrow36,000 or 32,500 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow16,500 or 14,400 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow970 or 890 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,700 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow4,700 or 4,100 by 02/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 1/5/22
As of 01/27/2022
  Indus: 34,161 -7.31 0.0%  
  Trans: 14,810 -218.68 -1.5%  
  Utils: 930 +7.38 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,353 -189.34 -1.4%  
  S&P 500: 4,327 -23.42 -0.5%  
YTD
-6.0%  
-10.1%  
-5.2%  
-14.7%  
-9.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2022  
  Up arrow36,000 or 32,500 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow16,500 or 14,400 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow970 or 890 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,700 by 02/15/2022
  Up arrow4,700 or 4,100 by 02/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 1/5/22

 

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Friday 1/28/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Mid morning on Friday, if you can't get to thepatternsite.com (it's not found), then add an "s" to the url and see if it appears as in: https://thepatternsite.com/ (or any other links you may have to the site). I'll be working on upgrading it to https then.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 71 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEL, ABC, ADM, AIZ, ADP, BAX, BECN, BIG, CACI, CAL, CLS, CONN, COST, CTS, DHR, EIX, EZPW, FAST, FORM, FCX, GME, GNW, GILD, HBI, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, INCY, NSP, INTC, IPG, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KSS, LH, LAWS, LDOS, M, MOS, NFLX, OMC, PRFT, PCG, PEG, PHM, RCKY, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, NOW, SCCO, SR, TPX, TER, SLCA, WLK, WSM, WWW, FXI, EWJ, EPP, EWY, GLD, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/10/202201/21/2022Apparel
AMATBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/26/202101/14/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ATODouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/05/202201/19/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
BLLPipe top      12/27/202101/03/2022Packaging and Container
BBWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/01/202101/11/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CACIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/05/202201/18/2022IT Services
CEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/05/202201/13/2022Chemical (Basic)
CLSPipe top      01/03/202201/10/2022Electronics
CXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/05/202201/14/2022Cement and Aggregates
CNPBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/05/202201/27/2022Electric Utility (Central)
CLDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/05/202201/19/2022Household Products
CRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/05/202201/13/2022Diversified Co.
CCRNTriple top      11/04/202112/28/2021Human Resources
CTSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/16/202101/04/2022Electronics
WIREDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/23/202112/28/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
EPAMThree Falling Peaks      11/05/202112/27/2021IT Services
FICOBroadening top      12/30/202101/26/2022IT Services
FCXPipe top      01/10/202201/18/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
HBIHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/13/202112/31/2021Apparel
HSCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/29/202101/14/2022Diversified Co.
KLICPipe top      12/06/202112/13/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LRCXTriple top      12/09/202101/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAMRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/05/202101/04/2022Advertising
RAMPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/08/202101/04/2022Computer Software and Svcs
MNDTHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/23/202112/15/2021Computer Software and Svcs
MASBroadening top      11/16/202101/04/2022Building Materials
NFLXDead-cat bounce      01/21/202201/21/2022Internet
PKGUgly double bottom      12/20/202101/24/2022Packaging and Container
PKERectangle bottom      11/26/202101/27/2022Chemical (Specialty)
PATKThree Falling Peaks      10/04/202101/05/2022Retail Building Supply
PHMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/30/202101/13/2022Homebuilding
RLThree Falling Peaks      11/01/202101/05/2022Apparel
RHIBroadening top      12/29/202101/14/2022Human Resources
SAICUgly double bottom      12/20/202101/10/2022IT Services
SWNHorn top      12/27/202101/10/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
TECHThree Falling Peaks      09/23/202112/31/2021Biotechnology
TFXTriple top      01/05/202201/20/2022Diversified Co.
TERDead-cat bounce      01/27/202201/27/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
VMCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/09/202101/04/2022Cement and Aggregates
WERNPipe top      12/27/202101/03/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WLKPipe top      01/10/202201/18/2022Chemical (Basic)

 

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Thursday 1/27/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.0% or 2.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 693 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 395 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 298 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 234/409 or 57.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 60/127 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I like trendlines because they describe how price has moved and give hints of what will happen.

This chart is an example of that idea. The blue line shows the longer-term trend (although on this scale, it's very short term). The index tried to pierce it at point A, but failed to do so.

The red line shows a recovery. Everything was fine until the FED made their announcement. My view is that the market would shrug off their words and climb. Instead, the index dropped. I still believe their worry is overblown, so I'm still thinking that this is a buying opportunity (I bought 2 securities and may buy another tomorrow). I expect a recovery. The above probabilities (57% close higher) support that belief.

$ $ $

warning light, courtesy Tenor.inc https://tenor.com/view/police-warning-light-gif-14464277

Today (Wednesday) the web service which hosts my website routed requests from http: to https:. The result of that was to crash the Firefox browser and make me scramble to figure out what happened.

Their response? "Nothing changed on their end." Then "Well, we did change some things but it shouldn't have any bearing on your problem." After he removed their changes, the site resumed operating as it was designed.

What this means is that I'll be trying to reconfigure my website as https: this Friday. That means images won't be shown. The pages will lose their links. If all goes well, the downtime should be an hour or even minutes to get the home page running. There may be links which won't work. I may have to abandon the attempt and rewrite my 900 something pages. If it works, you should change any link to the site to use https instead of http. (add the "s"). If the change works, you should no longer see warnings about going to an insecure site. If it works, you'll see https:// in the URL and the site will appear and work as it does now.

Mid morning on Friday, if you can't get to thepatternsite.com (it's not found), then add an "s" to the url and see if it appears as in: https://thepatternsite.com/ (or any other links you may have to the site).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACN, ACIW, AYI, APD, DOX, AEE, AEL, AFG, APOG, AWI, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVNT, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BA, CBT, CAL, CPB, CNC, CENX, CHS, CSCO, CLF, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CONN, GLW, CSGS, DECK, ^DJU, ^DJI, BOOM, EZPW, FFIV, FAST, FIS, FCX, GE, GPRO, GES, HBI, HE, HTLD, HL, HSII, HNI, HD, HON, DHI, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IVC, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KBAL, KSS, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MAS, FB, MGEE, MOS, NTAP, NEU, NKE, OMC, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PNW, POR, PPL, PHM, KWR, RL, RCKY, ROST, SMG, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TOL, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WLK, WMB, WSM, WWW, ITA, IYM, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IYZ, ECH, EEM, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PPA, PBE, XLY, XLP, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,265.38    
 Monthly S1  12,903.75  638.37   
 Daily S2  13,035.19  131.44   
 Weekly S2  13,039.33  4.14   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  13,288.66  249.32   
 Weekly S1  13,290.73  2.07   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  13,392.19  101.46   
 Close  13,542.12  149.93   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,625.39  83.27   
 Daily Pivot  13,645.65  20.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,697.42  51.77   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,769.45  72.03   
 Open  13,871.77  102.32   
 Daily R1  13,899.12  27.35   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  14,002.65  103.53   
 Weekly Pivot  14,015.63  12.98   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  14,256.11  240.48   
 Weekly R1  14,267.03  10.91   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  14,402.61  135.58   
 Weekly R2  14,991.93  589.32   
 Monthly R1  15,040.98  49.05   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  16,539.84  1,498.86   

Wednesday 1/26/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

In my view, this drop is well oversold (meaning it's time or nearly time to buy). Maybe after tomorrow's (Wednesday's) FED meeting the markets will settle down. So if I had cash to put into the market, I'd be buying. To put it another way, I think the markets will rebound and two years from now, you'll wish you'd bought. That's called buy-the-dip.

This chart is bearish. The index has made a swift drop and the CPI signaled a bearish turn soon after it happened (the red vertical bar on the far right of the chart). Good timing on that signal. However, both the CPI and index are still bearish. I will say that the indices seem to be turning or trying to turn. It's fighting to find a bottom. If I had to guess, I think we put in the low yesterday (Monday). I DO expect the markets to make a big rally tomorrow after the FED meeting. That's a guess, of course.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 44% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 36%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 44% on 01/25/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 459 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 20% on 01/21/2022.

Both the blue and red lines are bearish this week compared to a week ago. No surprise there. I'm still struck by how the red line has been trending lower for months (most of the chart, really) even as the index has climbed.

That's profound bearish divergence.

This week, we have two bearish charts and yet I expect a big rally. You don't see hints of a bullish turn on the charts and world events (covid, inflation, Russia/Ukraine) will continue to make the markets volatile. In my view, when things look bleak and you feel like selling everything, that's the time to buy. I may follow my own advice and buy some QQQs other ETF. I won't be buying individual stocks because of the risk of them making a huge decline (often due to earnings). But the QQQs have made a nice drop, so it's like buying it on sale and the diversified nature of the ETF means you don't suffer as much from single-stock risk.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 89 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AJRD, AEL, APA, APOG, ARW, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CL, CMTL, CONN, COP, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, DVN, BOOM, FAST, FCX, GPS, GL, HP, HON, NSP, IPAR, IBKR, KALU, KBH, KSS, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LMT, LXU, MAN, MRO, MOS, MUR, NBR, NOV, OXY, ORI, OMC, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PETS, PCG, RGS, REV, RLI, RES, SLB, SMG, SEE, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, RIG, SLCA, VLO, WLK, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IGE, EWM, EZA, PXJ, IXC, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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