Bulkowski's Blog

As of 09/19/2019

Indus: 27,095 -52.29 -0.2%

Trans: 10,504 -72.12 -0.7%

Utils: 860 +3.49 +0.4%

Nasdaq: 8,183 +5.49 +0.1%

S&P 500: 3,007 +0.06 +0.0%

YTD

+16.1%

+14.5%

+20.6%

+23.3%

+19.9%

Targets Overview: 09/12/2019

26,400 or 27,600 by 10/01/2019

10,200 or 11,100 by 10/01/2019

875 or 830 by 10/01/2019

8,000 or 8,750 by 10/01/2019

2,925 or 3,050 by 10/01/2019

Chart pattern indicator: Arrows

on 8/28/19

As of 09/19/2019

Indus: 27,095 -52.29 -0.2%

Trans: 10,504 -72.12 -0.7%

Utils: 860 +3.49 +0.4%

Nasdaq: 8,183 +5.49 +0.1%

S&P 500: 3,007 +0.06 +0.0%

YTD

+16.1%

+14.5%

+20.6%

+23.3%

+19.9%

Targets Overview: 09/12/2019

26,400 or 27,600 by 10/01/2019

10,200 or 11,100 by 10/01/2019

875 or 830 by 10/01/2019

8,000 or 8,750 by 10/01/2019

2,925 or 3,050 by 10/01/2019

Chart pattern indicator: Arrows

on 8/28/19

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Friday 9/20/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Symbol	Chart Pattern	Bullish Bearish	Start	End	Industry
ACN	Diamond top		08/19/2019	09/19/2019	IT Services
ADTN	Flag		09/12/2019	09/19/2019	Telecom. Equipment
AXP	Roof		08/26/2019	09/19/2019	Financial Services
BECN	Pennant		09/13/2019	09/18/2019	Retail Building Supply
CENX	Pennant		09/16/2019	09/19/2019	Metals and Mining (Div.)
DECK	Pipe top		09/03/2019	09/09/2019	Shoe
EIGI	Dead-cat bounce		09/13/2019	09/19/2019	E-Commerce
K	Triangle, ascending		08/19/2019	09/19/2019	Food Processing
LANC	Triangle, symmetrical		09/05/2019	09/19/2019	Food Processing
LAWS	Flag		09/13/2019	09/19/2019	Metal Fabricating
MCHX	Rectangle bottom		08/09/2019	09/19/2019	Advertising
PYPL	Diamond bottom		08/19/2019	09/19/2019	Financial Services
IHI	Diamond top		08/29/2019	09/18/2019	Medical Supplies

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/12/2019 and 09/19/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions

RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.

’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.

All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.

For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Accenture plc (ACN)

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 116 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $194.67

1 Month avg volatility: $3.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $202.38 or 4.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 38.05%

Volume: 1,578,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 516 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $11.42

1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.68 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.33%

Volume: 143,800 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/12/2019 to 09/19/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/18/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/17/2019 and a 38% chance by 01/16/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

American Express Co (AXP)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 259 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $117.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.47 or 4.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 23.57%

Volume: 1,994,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 08/26/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 309 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $34.83

1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.86 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 9.80%

Volume: 500,100 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/18/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 02/05/2020.
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $7.02

1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.31 or 10.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.97%

Volume: 759,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 09/16/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 381 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $138.06

1 Month avg volatility: $3.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $147.50 or 6.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.90%

Volume: 520,500 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/03/2019 to 09/09/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 571 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $3.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.06 or 31.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -42.11%

Volume: 2,239,300 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

Kellogg Co (K)

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 108 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $63.74

1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.34 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.80%

Volume: 1,021,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 402 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $144.86

1 Month avg volatility: $3.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.31 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.09%

Volume: 141,700 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/05/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Lawson Products (LAWS)

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $41.22

1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.25 or 7.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 30.44%

Volume: 16,500 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 09/13/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Marchex, Inc (MCHX)

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $3.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.66 or 12.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 23.02%

Volume: 71,500 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 08/09/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Paypal Holdings, Inc (PYPL)

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 288 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $106.12

1 Month avg volatility: $2.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.76 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.20%

Volume: 5,024,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/19/2019 to 09/19/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 226 out of 583

9/19/19 close: $250.10

1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $258.45 or 3.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 25.17%

Volume: 128,800 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/29/2019 to 09/18/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Thursday 9/19/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -8.63 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 594 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...

Average gain was 0.8% on 330 occasions.

Average loss was -0.7% on 264 occasions.

Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.

Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:

The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 172/311 or 55.3% of the time.

The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The Federal Reserve announced a quarter point rate cut at A. Before that, according to one news report, the FED made confusing statements about future rate cuts.

The market didn't like that. Down the index went until the announcement sent the index back up.

I drew a red line highlighting a poorly-shaped (formed) measured move down.

The pattern has completed. One of the things I like about it is what happens next. After completing the MMD, the index returns to the corrective phase. That happened today when the index climbed back up to 8175, near the top of the region.

Now the question becomes, what happens next? A check of my book, Chart Patterns: After the Buy, says that a downward breakout happens 67% of the time.

That's good enough for me. I expect that we'll see price drop below the bottom of the measured move. The above probabilities say the opposite, that the index will close higher. One of us will be right.

It's possible we'll both be right. The index will close higher but it'll take a few days for price to close below the MMD.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com Metric	Value	Diff	Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)?
Monthly S2	7,518.66
Monthly S1	7,848.03	329.36
Weekly S2	7,898.84	50.81
Weekly S1	8,038.11	139.28
Monthly Pivot	8,045.91	7.80	Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
Daily S2	8,054.18	8.26	Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
Low	8,086.22	32.04
Daily S1	8,115.78	29.56
61.8% Down from Intraday High	8,121.99	6.21	Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
50% Down from Intraday High	8,133.04	11.05
Weekly Pivot	8,140.96	7.91	Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
38.2% Down from Intraday High	8,144.10	3.14	Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
Daily Pivot	8,147.83	3.73	Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
Open	8,174.62	26.79
Close	8,177.39	2.77	Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
High	8,179.87	2.48	Yes! The High is close to the Close.
Daily R1	8,209.43	29.56
Daily R2	8,241.48	32.04
Weekly R1	8,280.23	38.76
Monthly R1	8,375.28	95.04
Weekly R2	8,383.08	7.80	Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
Monthly R2	8,573.16	190.09

Wednesday 9/18/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator today is pegged at 93, close to the 100 limit. That's bullish as the green vertical bar on the far right of the chart suggests.

Yesterday (Monday), the reading was 100, so its come down some. To me, that's an indicator of weakening upward momentum, of a trend change coming.

I still think the indices will struggle to move higher because of overhead resistance setup by the July peak, but I could be wrong. It's possible we'll get some good news which will cause the markets to spike upward and break through that resistance.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...

On Tuesday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).

A week ago, it was 35%.

The fewest was 23% on 09/20/2018.

And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.

Shown as a blue line on the above chart...

The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.

A week ago, the average was 19%.

The peak was 13% on 09/20/2018.

And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago.

Both charts don't show any worries, so maybe we'll see that upward spike happening despite my concerns.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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