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Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Monday 1/26/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the S & P 500 index on the daily scale.
There's not much to comment on. Why? Because I'm as confused as the market about a direction.
Although I'm bullish, it's earnings season. The Dow dropped 141 points today (Friday) on weak earnings, at least that's the rumor I'm spreading. 
I drew two red lines bounding recent price action. The market seems to be confined within those two lines, at least going back 2 weeks or so.
The top red line also merges with overhead resistance in November-December.
I expect the index to drop again, but eventually recover to make a new high. My targets at the top of this page suggest that will happen by mid February, but now I'm not so sure. We'll have to wait and see.
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Tuesday: Up 3.66 points.
Wednesday: Up 39.05 points.
Thursday: Up 259.7 points.
Friday: Down 141.38 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!
For the Week...
The Dow industrials were up 161.03 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 123.5 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 32.4 points or 1.6%.
Year to Date...
Dow Industrials
1.6% down from the high of 17,951.78 on 01/02/2015.
2.5% up from the low of 17,243.55 on 01/16/2015.
Nasdaq
0.4% down from the high of 4,777.01 on 01/02/2015.
4.3% up from the low of 4,563.11 on 01/16/2015.
S&P 500
1.0% down from the high of 2,072.36 on 01/02/2015.
3.2% up from the low of 1,988.12 on 01/16/2015.
Economic Reports
The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.
| Report | Time | A-F
Rating | Description |
| Durable goods orders | 8:30 T | B | Measures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years. |
| Consumer confidence | 10:00 T | B- | Surveys 5,000 households for trends. |
| New home sales | 10:00 T | C+ | Shows sales of single-family homes. |
| Crude inventories | 10:30 W | ? | My guess: Measures oil inventory. |
| FOMC Rate decision | 2:00 W | ? | The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes. |
| Initial jobless claims | 8:30 Th | C+ | Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. |
| Gross domestic product | 8:30 F | B | Measures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation. |
| Chicago purchasing managers index | 9:45 F | B | Monitors regional manufacturing activity. |
| Michigan sentiment | 9:55 F | B- | Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending. |
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
As of 01/23/2015, the CPI had:
12 bearish patterns,
36 bullish patterns,
445 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 75.0%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).
The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 1 of 3 half triangles showing ( ). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a
two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.
| Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
| Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 17,573 | 17,623 | 17,718 | 17,768 | 17,863 |
| Weekly | 17,126 | 17,399 | 17,620 | 17,893 | 18,114 |
| Monthly | 16,813 | 17,243 | 17,673 | 18,103 | 18,533 |
| S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 2,043 | 2,047 | 2,055 | 2,060 | 2,068 |
| Weekly | 1,981 | 2,017 | 2,040 | 2,075 | 2,098 |
| Monthly | 1,939 | 1,995 | 2,044 | 2,101 | 2,150 |
| Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 4,722 | 4,740 | 4,756 | 4,773 | 4,789 |
| Weekly | 4,540 | 4,649 | 4,710 | 4,819 | 4,880 |
| Monthly | 4,460 | 4,609 | 4,712 | 4,861 | 4,964 |
- Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Consecutive Price Trends
| Index | Consecutive
Closes So Far | % | Comments |
| Dow industrials (^DJI) | 1 week up | 43.6% |
Expect a random direction. |
| | 2 months down | 11.3% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| S & P 500 (^GSPC) | 1 week up | 42.9% |
Expect a random direction. |
| | 2 months down | 11.6% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) | 1 week up | 45.0% |
Expect a random direction. |
| | 1 month up | 48.5% |
Expect a random direction. |
How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.
Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.
The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.
Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA
This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly.
See 12-Month Moving Average for more details. Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bullish.
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.
| Found | Chart Pattern Name |
| 15 | Pipe bottom |
| 13 | Pipe top |
| 10 | Triangle, symmetrical |
| 8 | Head-and-shoulders top |
| 7 | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam |
| 5 | Triangle, ascending |
| 5 | Broadening top |
| 5 | Channel |
| 5 | Double Top, Eve and Eve |
| 5 | Head-and-shoulders bottom |
Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).
The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.
The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.
| This Week | Last Week |
| 1. Biotechnology | 1. Retail Building Supply |
| 2. Drug | 2. Biotechnology |
| 3. Electric Utility (West) | 3. Medical Supplies |
| 4. Retail Building Supply | 4. Furn/Home Furnishings |
| 5. Furn/Home Furnishings | 5. E-Commerce |
| |
| 50. Cement and Aggregates | 50. Cement and Aggregates |
| 51. Petroleum (Integrated) | 51. Petroleum (Integrated) |
| 52. Natural Gas (Diversified) | 52. Natural Gas (Diversified) |
| 53. Petroleum (Producing) | 53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| 54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | 54. Petroleum (Producing) |
|
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-- Thomas Bulkowski
Saturday 1/24/15. Bottom Fish or Play Momentum?
Buying stocks: Should you bottom fish (buy low, sell high) or play momentum (buy high, sell higher).
Research shows that bottom fishing gives better returns with less risk of failure.
See the link for more details.
$ $ $
This weekend I plan to read a book on gardening. It was a Christmas present from a friend. I love to garden! I'm looking forward to getting new ideas.
I'm already thinking about building a seat around my oak tree. The book has plans for that.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 1/23/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table. The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 593 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).
Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/15/2015 and 01/22/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Anika Therapeutics Inc (ANIK)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $39.60
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.06 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.80%
Volume: 104,600 shares.
3 month avg: 184,152 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/23/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 54% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $112.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.76 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.83%
Volume: 53,741,300 shares.
3 month avg: 51,181,706 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/16/2014 to 01/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.
Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $29.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.70 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.09%
Volume: 1,073,300 shares.
3 month avg: 1,750,335 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Computer Sciences Corp (CSC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $63.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.42 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.81%
Volume: 1,117,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,109,692 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/03/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $42.58
1 Month avg volatility: $2.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.65 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.00%
Volume: 6,777,100 shares.
3 month avg: 4,669,674 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/28/2014. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/27/2015 and a 38% chance by 05/29/2015. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Cree Inc (CREE)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $36.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.23 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.63%
Volume: 4,523,600 shares.
3 month avg: 2,878,055 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $24.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.64 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.12%
Volume: 1,756,200 shares.
3 month avg: 671,558 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 521 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $64.52
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.77 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.19%
Volume: 1,053,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,070,231 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $63.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.64 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.64%
Volume: 644,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,038,305 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/19/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 493 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $6.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.59 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.83%
Volume: 23,000 shares.
3 month avg: 20,605 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/10/2014 to 01/20/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 54% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.
Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 189 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $6.99
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.46 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.29%
Volume: 536,800 shares.
3 month avg: 568,537 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/06/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.
Informatica Corporation (INFA)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 171 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $38.49
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.40 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.93%
Volume: 1,851,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,197,632 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (JAZZ)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $176.19
1 Month avg volatility: $5.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $160.77 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.61%
Volume: 607,800 shares.
3 month avg: 731,208 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/16/2014 to 01/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.
Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $198.09
1 Month avg volatility: $3.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $188.89 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.87%
Volume: 1,307,700 shares.
3 month avg: 1,415,845 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/17/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.
Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $28.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.54 or 14.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.20%
Volume: 4,997,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,895,548 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $16.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.91 or 12.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.41%
Volume: 5,601,800 shares.
3 month avg: 8,433,231 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $46.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.37 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.45%
Volume: 2,552,600 shares.
3 month avg: 3,732,809 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/12/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 529 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $45.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.91 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.11%
Volume: 1,070,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,276,563 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/06/2014. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/05/2015 and a 38% chance by 05/07/2015. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $21.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.67 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.60%
Volume: 1,100 shares.
3 month avg: 187,791 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/27/2014 to 01/20/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.
Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 9 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $43.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.02 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.86%
Volume: 1,929,300 shares.
3 month avg: 8,897,566 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 10/15/2014 to 01/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 43%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 61% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.
Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $56.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.97 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.26%
Volume: 5,200 shares.
3 month avg: 821,245 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/17/2014 to 01/16/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.
DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $106.04
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.00 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.22%
Volume: 6,300 shares.
3 month avg: 68,789 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/16/2014 to 01/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $13.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.34 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.47%
Volume: 69,400 shares.
3 month avg: 2,531,889 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $18.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.82 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.00%
Volume: 276,500 shares.
3 month avg: 3,231,243 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/05/2015 to 01/12/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $34.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.65 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.69%
Volume: 700 shares.
3 month avg: 69,534 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/15/2014 to 01/22/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 585
1/22/15 close: $50.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.26 or 2.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.55%
Volume: 12,062,000 shares.
3 month avg: 7,890,394 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 11/28/2014 to 01/21/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.
Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
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