Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/18/2020
  Indus: 27,657 -244.56 -0.9%  
  Trans: 11,432 -120.44 -1.0%  
  Utils: 798 -12.86 -1.6%  
  Nasdaq: 10,793 -117.00 -1.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,319 -37.54 -1.1%  
YTD
-3.1%  
 +4.9%  
-9.2%  
 +20.3%  
 +2.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20
As of 09/18/2020
  Indus: 27,657 -244.56 -0.9%  
  Trans: 11,432 -120.44 -1.0%  
  Utils: 798 -12.86 -1.6%  
  Nasdaq: 10,793 -117.00 -1.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,319 -37.54 -1.1%  
YTD
-3.1%  
 +4.9%  
-9.2%  
 +20.3%  
 +2.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020  
  Up arrow29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
  Up arrow3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 8/18/20

 

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Monday 9/21/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, the index made a double bottom. It confirmed when the index closed above the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Although I don't show it on the chart, the confirmation let to a whopper of a move up, easily fulfilling the measure rule (the height of the double bottom added to the breakout price to get a price target).

I think the index is going to recover but I could be wrong. In view of my belief, I used a price mirror to show what I think will happen.

That appears at C.

You can see that I reflected the last month or so across the green line.

In the short term, I expect weakness in the indices. It might drop more, but I think it'll move sideways and then start to perk up.

Despite the way I've drawn this, I don't expect the index to reach the height of the September peak. More likely, it'll fall short of that peak.

Of course, with the death of RGB (Ginsburg), there's no telling what kind of fireworks are going to happen.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 327.69 points.
Tuesday: Up 2.27 points.
Wednesday: Up 36.78 points.
Thursday: Down 130.4 points.
Friday: Down 244.56 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 8.22 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 60.27 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.5 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     51.8% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     62.8% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     7.5% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     51.4% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,239  27,448  27,697  27,907  28,156 
Weekly  26,960  27,309  27,837  28,185  28,714 
Monthly  26,349  27,003  28,101  28,755  29,854 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,255  3,287  3,325  3,357  3,395 
Weekly  3,210  3,265  3,347  3,401  3,483 
Monthly  3,104  3,212  3,400  3,508  3,696 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,466  10,630  10,804  10,967  11,141 
Weekly  10,287  10,540  10,893  11,146  11,498 
Monthly  9,735  10,264  11,169  11,698  12,603 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, AMED, ABC, AAPL, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BG, CACI, CLS, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHS, CGNX, CL, CAG, CSOD, COST, CREE, CRH, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, ETFC, EXP, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FWRD, GIS, GNW, GOOGL, HE, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HUBG, HURC, IDA, ILMN, INFN, INOV, NSP, IBKR, TILE, IPI, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, LZB, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SCCO, SR, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TOL, RIG, TREX, V, WERN, WU, WMB, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHI, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EPP, EZA, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Air Transport
2. Shoe2. Homebuilding
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor
4. Retail Building Supply4. Retail Building Supply
5. Air Transport5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Semiconductor6. E-Commerce
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Internet
8. Chemical (Basic)8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Chemical (Diversified)9. Shoe
10. Machinery10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Petroleum (Producing)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Chemical (Specialty)56. Advertising
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/18/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMZN, AMED, APOG, ATR, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, CDNS, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLF, CRH, CSGS, DECK, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FICO, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HD, DHI, ITW, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, K, KBAL, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, MANH, MAS, MDC, MSFT, MLHR, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NUS, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PHM, RJF, REV, RLI, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TECH, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VMI, VC, WLK, WEX, WSM, WDAY, IYM, ITB, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, QLD, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADSTriangle, symmetrical      08/11/202009/17/2020Information Services
AFGRoof      08/25/202009/17/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CALFlag, high and tight      08/03/202009/17/2020Shoe
CFHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/01/202009/17/2020Chemical (Basic)
CRLPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Biotechnology
GLWDiamond top      08/21/202009/16/2020Telecom. Equipment
CRHPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Cement and Aggregates
CWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/10/202009/16/2020Machinery
DECKPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Shoe
FISVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/20/202009/17/2020IT Services
FDPTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/202009/17/2020Food Processing
DHIPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
NVTAPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Medical Services
KBHPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
LHXDiamond top      08/26/202009/16/2020Aerospace/Defense
LENPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
MHOPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
MDCPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
PCGRectangle bottom      07/13/202009/11/2020Electric Utility (West)
POLTriangle, ascending      07/31/202009/17/2020Chemical (Specialty)
PHMPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding
REVTriangle, symmetrical      07/15/202009/16/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
TPXPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
TOLPipe bottom      08/31/202009/08/2020Homebuilding

 

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Thursday 9/17/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.2% or -139.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 120 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 51 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 69 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/352 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/114 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The last two days have formed a chart pattern. What's its name? Do you know?

The pattern's name is a mouthful: broadening formation, right-angled and descending. I show it in red on the chart.

The chart pattern indicator has turned bullish today but the signal can disappear for up to a week. I mention that because the index is resting on the bottom portion of the chart pattern.

It might have pierced the bottom line, but it's hard to tell in this chart. Anyway, these patterns breakout upward 64% of the time. So my guess is the index will bounce off the line and rise tomorrow, heading for the top trendline.

The above stats disagree with that assessment. And it's possible that news of people unemployed might send a shockwave through the markets at the open tomorrow, so anything goes these days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AMD, AMZN, AMED, AEL, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKH, BA, CBT, COG, CDNS, CAL, CNP, CENX, CRL, CSCO, CTXS, ED, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DECK, ^DJT, EXP, EIX, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HLIT, HTLD, HD, DHI, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, INOV, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, LEN, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDCA, MSFT, MYGN, CNR, NFLX, NEU, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, POL, PHM, KWR, QCOM, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, SO, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TPX, TDC, TXN, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VRSN, VC, WLK, WSM, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWU, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XHB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,938.16    
 Weekly S2  10,454.51  516.35   
 Monthly S1  10,494.31  39.80   
 Weekly S1  10,752.49  258.18   
 Daily S2  10,915.12  162.63   
 Daily S1  10,982.79  67.68   
 Weekly Pivot  11,026.01  43.22   
 Low  11,046.43  20.42   
 Close  11,050.47  4.04   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,114.11  63.64   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,122.44  8.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,145.92  23.48   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,169.41  23.48   
 Daily R1  11,181.78  12.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  11,222.08  40.30   
 High  11,245.42  23.34   
 Monthly Pivot  11,284.19  38.77   
 Daily R2  11,313.10  28.91   
 Weekly R1  11,323.99  10.89   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  11,597.51  273.52   
 Monthly R1  11,840.34  242.83   
 Monthly R2  12,630.22  789.87   

 

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