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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Monday 6/26/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
I drew channel lines to highlight the current and past trends.
Look first at the green line.
The index came close to or touched the line multiple times since January. Trendline research suggests it's an important trendline.
If the index were to drop to the green line, it might find support there.
A narrower channel I highlight in red. The top red trendline is longer and is a more difficult resistance line to pierce.
The bottom red line is shorter and weaker than the top trendline. Notice at A a similar situation developed. See how the index plunged to the green line after breaking out of the congestion region.
That kind of a drop could happen this time, sending the index down to touch the green line again.
A Brief Look Back
The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Up 144.71 points.
Tuesday: Down 61.85 points.
Wednesday: Down 57.11 points.
Thursday: Down 12.74 points.
Friday: Down 2.53 points.
For the Week...
The Dow industrials were up 10.48 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 113.49 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 5.15 points or 0.2%.
Year to Date...
Dow Industrials
0.7% down from the high of 21,535.30 on 06/20/2017.
8.7% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
1.2% down from the high of 6,341.70 on 06/09/2017.
16.1% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
0.6% down from the high of 2,453.82 on 06/19/2017.
8.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
As of 06/23/2017, the CPI had:
18 bearish patterns,
32 bullish patterns,
390 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 64.0%, which is
neutral (between 35% and 65%).
The chart pattern indicator is bearish
with 1 of 3 half triangles showing ( ). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a
two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.
| Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
| Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 21,296 | 21,345 | 21,383 | 21,433 | 21,471 |
| Weekly | 21,220 | 21,307 | 21,421 | 21,509 | 21,623 |
| Monthly | 20,359 | 20,877 | 21,206 | 21,724 | 22,053 |
| S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily | 2,427 | 2,432 | 2,437 | 2,443 | 2,447 |
| Weekly | 2,418 | 2,428 | 2,441 | 2,451 | 2,464 |
| Monthly | 2,337 | 2,388 | 2,421 | 2,471 | 2,504 |
| Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 6,201 | 6,233 | 6,251 | 6,283 | 6,302 |
| Weekly | 6,158 | 6,212 | 6,241 | 6,294 | 6,323 |
| Monthly | 5,954 | 6,110 | 6,226 | 6,381 | 6,497 |
- Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Consecutive Price Trends
| Index | Consecutive
Closes So Far | % | Comments |
| Dow industrials (^DJI) | 5 weeks up | 12.6% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| | 3 months up | 30.7% |
The trend may continue. |
| S & P 500 (^GSPC) | 2 weeks up | 31.4% |
The trend may continue. |
| | 3 months up | 37.6% |
The trend may continue. |
| Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) | 1 week up | 45.5% |
Expect a random direction. |
| | 8 months up | 3.3% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.
Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.
The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is over.
| Found | Chart Pattern Name |
| 17 | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam |
| 12 | Triangle, symmetrical |
| 10 | Pipe bottom |
| 9 | Head-and-shoulders bottom |
| 8 | Pipe top |
| 8 | Triangle, ascending |
| 5 | Triple bottom |
| 4 | Head-and-shoulders top |
| 4 | Broadening bottom |
| 3 | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending |
Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).
The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.
The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.
| This Week | Last Week |
| 1. Medical Supplies | 1. Medical Supplies |
| 2. Medical Services | 2. Medical Services |
| 3. Semiconductor Cap Equip. | 3. Semiconductor Cap Equip. |
| 4. Internet | 4. Semiconductor |
| 5. Computer Software and Svcs | 5. Precision Instrument |
| |
| 50. Short ETFs | 50. Retail Store |
| 51. Retail Store | 51. Petroleum (Integrated) |
| 52. Petroleum (Integrated) | 52. Natural Gas (Diversified) |
| 53. Retail (Special Lines) | 53. Apparel |
| 54. Natural Gas (Diversified) | 54. Retail (Special Lines) |
| 55. Furn/Home Furnishings | 55. Furn/Home Furnishings |
| 56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | 56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| 57. Petroleum (Producing) | 57. Petroleum (Producing) |
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-- Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 6/23/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table. The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 602 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).
Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
More... -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/15/2017 and 06/22/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $30.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.75 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 46.02%
Volume: 434,700 shares.
3 month avg: 312,229 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $144.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $139.95 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.30%
Volume: 1,008,200 shares.
3 month avg: 1,272,891 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2017 to 06/21/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 283 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $77.54
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.50 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.75%
Volume: 245,300 shares.
3 month avg: 477,566 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/08/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.
Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $34.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.84 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.92%
Volume: 1,032,200 shares.
3 month avg: 2,201,863 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/12/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $25.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.48 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -21.57%
Volume: 307,300 shares.
3 month avg: 363,828 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 05/30/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 7%. Pullbacks occur 33% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $13.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.63 or 12.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 61.92%
Volume: 1,741,200 shares.
3 month avg: 2,157,232 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $26.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.68 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.18%
Volume: 55,900 shares.
3 month avg: 119,032 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $35.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.98 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.39%
Volume: 421,400 shares.
3 month avg: 535,218 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/23/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.
Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 435 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $41.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.47 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.34%
Volume: 42,000 shares.
3 month avg: 69,194 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/02/2017 to 06/19/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Gap Inc. (GPS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $22.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.35 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.87%
Volume: 4,430,900 shares.
3 month avg: 5,989,377 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/26/2017 to 06/22/2017
Breakout is downward 66% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 20%. Pullbacks occur 65% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.
Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $35.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.37 or 13.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.52%
Volume: 49,800 shares.
3 month avg: 90,006 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 525 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $43.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.83 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.42%
Volume: 278,600 shares.
3 month avg: 501,391 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $34.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.08 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.67%
Volume: 570,400 shares.
3 month avg: 791,085 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 594
6/22/17 close: $15.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.86 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -37.08%
Volume: 54,900 shares.
3 month avg: 79,658 shares. This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)! Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 06/05/2017 to 06/12/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Thursday 6/22/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
The index climbed by 0.7% or 45.92 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 397 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 247 occasions.
Average loss was -0.8% on 150 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 131/227 or 57.7% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
The red line shows overhead resistance and how the index has bumped up against it time and again.
If price mirrors work this time, then look for the index to follow the green line.
Price should dip to mirror the drop at B and then rise to reflect the move to A.
I'm not sure I believe the path will come true, but it helps with planning a trade.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2017 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 5,845.93 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 6,039.94 | 194.01 |
|
| Weekly S2 | 6,063.43 | 23.49 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 6,148.69 | 85.26 |
|
| Daily S2 | 6,188.02 | 39.33 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 6,190.82 | 2.80 |
Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2. |
| Weekly Pivot | 6,193.11 | 2.29 |
Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
| Low | 6,200.86 | 7.75 |
|
| Open | 6,202.75 | 1.89 |
Yes! The Open is close to the Low. |
| Daily S1 | 6,210.99 | 8.24 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 6,214.54 | 3.55 |
Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 6,218.76 | 4.22 |
|
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 6,222.98 | 4.22 |
|
| Daily Pivot | 6,223.82 | 0.84 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
| Close | 6,233.95 | 10.13 |
|
| High | 6,236.66 | 2.71 |
Yes! The High is close to the Close. |
| Daily R1 | 6,246.79 | 10.13 |
|
| Daily R2 | 6,259.62 | 12.84 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 6,278.37 | 18.75 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 6,322.79 | 44.42 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 6,384.83 | 62.04 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 6,535.71 | 150.88 |
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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
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