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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 12/02/2016
19,192 68.35 0.4%
9,037 55.55 0.6%
627 -6.01 -0.9%
5,251 -72.57 -1.4%
2,192 0.87 0.0%
YTD
10.1%
20.4%
8.5%
4.9%
7.2%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/30/2016
18,700 or 19,300 by 12/15/2016
8,650 or 9,200 by 12/15/2016
650 or 605 by 12/15/2016
5,130 or 5,400 by 12/15/2016
2,150 or 2,300 by 12/15/2016

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Monday 12/5/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The first thing I noticed is the change in slope.

I show that with the red line at A. It has a modest slope, one you could tolerate for a few miles if you were a professional cyclist.

But look what happens to the index at B. The slope changes into a Cat 1 hill (a very steep one).

How long do you think this upward run will last?

I have found that the steeper the trendline the shorter it tends to be.

However, the trendline could break. The index would retrace for a time and then climb again, but at a more shallow slope.

That's my guess as to what will happen in the coming weeks and months.

$ $ $

Chart Patterns: After the Buy

This is a reminder to all of you that visit this free website and do business with Amazon.com. If you click on one of the pictures of my books, like those shown on the far left or the row of my books I show above, the link will take you to Amazon.com. If you purchase anything while there during that visit, I collect a small referral fee. That helps keep this website free and available to everyone.

Thank you!

$ $ $

Back in March, I visited with my optometrist for my annual eye exam. She found two veins that had burst. What was the cause? She named several, including a spike in glucose (blood sugar).

A visit to my family doctor showed that my A1c (roughly, a three month weighted average of glucose) was near the high for being normal.

So I changed my diet to lower my carb intake (carbs get changed to glucose easily). I cut carbs by 23% and yet my A1c climbed another tenth of a percentage. Another similar climb and I'd be pre-diabetic -- on my way to becoming diabetic.

So I cut my carbs more (about 50% now) and I started testing myself today.

That means I bought a meter, test strips, and lances. Just before each meal, I stabbed myself to draw blood, and did the same an hour and two hours after each meal.

It's an interesting way to track how your body responds to eating.

Let me be clear. I'm not fat (5' 9" tall and 142 pounds). Plus I get plenty of exercise (summer bicycling and winter working on a treadmill and elliptical). You might think, as I did, that diabetes is a fat person's disease. It can be but not in my case.

Anyway, yes, it's painful to stick yourself with a lancet (as it's called). My first attempt, it took me three tries to draw something, and blood then flowed from two of the holes (the first one never touched my skin). I had to dial in how far the machine would stick the needle.

Anyway, my finger is still sore from those stabs. I've had better luck with my other fingers, completing ten sticks today.

What I learned is that the vegetable soup I made is just fine for lunch. Same with the smoothie (snack). My glucose rises but not much. Breakfast and dinner are problems, though.

I think I can lower the glucose spike by either adding peanuts to my oatmeal for breakfast (or removing the highly glycemic blueberries) and only have vegan sloppy Joes (the hamburger roll is the problem) for dinner occasionally.

Anyway, it's an interesting way to live, knowing you should never have a pizza or hot fudge sundae or even potato chips again. Ever. Doing so could, in my case, lead to blindness.

And I consider that a death sentence.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 54.24 points.
Tuesday: Up 23.7 points.
Wednesday: Up 1.98 points.
Thursday: Up 68.35 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 39.79 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 147.81 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 21.4001 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 19,225.29 on 11/30/2016.
     24.2% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     2.8% down from the high of 5,403.86 on 11/29/2016.
     24.7% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     1.0% down from the high of 2,214.10 on 11/30/2016.
     21.1% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/02/2016, the CPI had:

4 bearish patterns,
8 bullish patterns,
193 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 66.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  19,106  19,149  19,182  19,225  19,257 
Weekly  18,997  19,094  19,160  19,257  19,323 
Monthly  17,425  18,309  18,767  19,650  20,109 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,183  2,188  2,193  2,197  2,202 
Weekly  2,171  2,182  2,198  2,208  2,224 
Monthly  2,033  2,112  2,163  2,243  2,294 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,184  5,217  5,272  5,306  5,360 
Weekly  5,132  5,192  5,298  5,357  5,463 
Monthly  4,860  5,056  5,230  5,425  5,599 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks up 17.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months up 38.5%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 27.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
23Pipe bottom
12Head-and-shoulders bottom
10Triangle, symmetrical
5Dead-cat bounce
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Pipe top
3Head-and-shoulders top
3Double Top, Adam and Adam
3Triangle, descending
3Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Semiconductor
2. Insurance (Life)2. Insurance (Life)
3. Semiconductor3. Securities Brokerage
4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
50. E-Commerce50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Drug51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Information Services52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Biotechnology
54. Household Products54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Biotechnology55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Household Products
57. Short ETFs57. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/2/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 625 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AYITriangle, symmetrical      11/16/201612/01/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
BBBYTriangle, symmetrical      11/14/201612/01/2016Retail (Special Lines)
BARising wedge      10/26/201612/01/2016Aerospace/Defense
DODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/11/201611/29/2016Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
FORMBroadening top      08/03/201612/01/2016Semiconductor
IIINFlag, high and tight      10/20/201611/25/2016Building Materials
NSHRectangle top      04/21/201612/01/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
PPLTriangle, symmetrical      09/27/201612/01/2016Electric Utility (East)
RHTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/18/201611/29/2016Computer Software and Svcs
SHLMTriangle, symmetrical      11/16/201612/01/2016Chemical (Specialty)
IEOBroadening top      09/01/201611/29/2016Petroleum (Integrated)
EWATriangle, ascending      08/26/201612/01/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWJTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/201612/01/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWDTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/201612/01/2016Investment Co. (Foreign)
USOHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/04/201611/29/2016Petroleum (Producing)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/24/2016 and 12/01/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $251.46
1 Month avg volatility: $6.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $237.59 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.55%
Volume: 333,000 shares. 3 month avg: 466,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/16/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $45.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.14 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.89%
Volume: 2,042,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,230,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/14/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $152.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $157.05 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.39%
Volume: 2,825,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,601,438 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/26/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 612 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $19.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.91 or 12.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.48%
Volume: 5,525,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,901,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 11/11/2016 to 11/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FormFactor Inc. (FORM)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 19 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $10.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.43 or 20.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.00%
Volume: 488,800 shares. 3 month avg: 417,006 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/03/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 30 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $39.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.14 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 90.11%
Volume: 368,700 shares. 3 month avg: 331,248 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 10/20/2016 to 11/25/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/20/2016. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/19/2017 and a 38% chance by 04/20/2017.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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NuStar GP Holdings (NSH)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $26.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.86 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.82%
Volume: 91,800 shares. 3 month avg: 59,895 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 04/21/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PPL Corporation (PPL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 550 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $33.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.57 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.02%
Volume: 4,619,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,977,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/27/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Red Hat, Inc (RHT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 359 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $75.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.69 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.20%
Volume: 1,550,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,513,811 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/18/2016 to 11/29/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Schulman, A. (SHLM)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $33.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.50 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.03%
Volume: 226,300 shares. 3 month avg: 250,603 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/16/2016 to 12/01/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/11/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/09/2017.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Oil and Gas (IEO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $65.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.18 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.40%
Volume: 210,300 shares. 3 month avg: 107,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/01/2016 to 11/29/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $20.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.20 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.97%
Volume: 2,729,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,100,129 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/26/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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MSCI Japan Index fund (EWJ)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $49.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.78 or 1.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.04%
Volume: 6,530,700 shares. 3 month avg: 22,298,551 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/22/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Sweden Index (EWD)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $27.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.81 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.03%
Volume: 141,700 shares. 3 month avg: 222,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/04/2016 to 12/01/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United States Oil (USO)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 617
12/1/16 close: $11.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.67 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.00%
Volume: 90,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 46,684,312 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/04/2016 to 11/29/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Thursday 12/1/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 11.11 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 636 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 368 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 268 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 118/203 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/78 or 51.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

On the daily charts, I swapped directions on all of the indices. I think over the next two weeks, we're going to see a retrace.

This chart suggests it's already begun. The red line shows the uptrend following the line. The green line shows the index dropping.

Intraday, I'm not sure it's as bleak as the longer-term picture. The above probabilities suggests the index will close higher tomorrow (Thursday).

$ $ $

On 11/1/2013, I bought a Phillips Sonicare electric toothbrush for $99. Add in the cost of the brushes (about $10 a pop for 3 months of use, if you buy theirs, according to their recommendation, too) and it was an expensive investment. But it worked great, especially for reaching behind the wisdom teeth, until a few days ago.

If I registered the toothbrush with the company, which I did, then they would extend the 2 year warranty by 6 months. The extended warranty expired this past May.

A few days ago, the $%%^ thing just started running without me touching it. It woke me up that night every 1.5 hours until I buried it in the garage (I tried the office but it still woke me). The thing would start and run for 15 seconds, then shut off. Another 1.5 hours later, it would cycle again. And yes, I could stop and start it manually, so it wasn't a stuck on/off switch.

I called the company and asked about this. "It's broke" they replied. No kidding. But they gave me a 15% coupon which didn't work either. Go figure.

Buying an exact replacement toothbrush would have set me back $150. Jeepers. That's as bad as Mylan raising the price of their Epi pens.

I think it's curious that it breaks just after the extended warranty expires. For the first year, I only used it once a day. Hmm. It's as if they timed it well. The brush commits suicide as soon as the warranty expires.

At least it wasn't made by Samsung. It would have caught fire by now.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,906.57    
 Monthly S1  5,143.25  236.67   
 Monthly Pivot  5,271.08  127.84   
 Weekly S2  5,306.24  35.16   
 Daily S2  5,338.15  31.91   
 Weekly S1  5,343.08  4.93   
 Daily S1  5,359.03  15.95   
 Low  5,360.56  1.53   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  5,370.98  10.42   
 Weekly Pivot  5,371.00  0.02   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,377.10  6.10   
 Close  5,379.92  2.82   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  5,381.45  1.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,382.21  0.76   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,387.32  5.11   
 Daily R1  5,402.33  15.01   
 High  5,403.86  1.53   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  5,407.84  3.98   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  5,424.75  16.91   
 Weekly R2  5,435.76  11.01   
 Monthly R1  5,507.76  72.00   
 Monthly R2  5,635.59  127.84   

Wednesday 11/30/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice how the blue line, the chart pattern indicator, has plummeted in the last several days but ticked upward on Tuesday.

I'm not sure what to make of this. The Dow futures are up as I write this before the market opens, so maybe the bearish indications I see in the chart are just my imagination.

But it looks as if the index is rounding over and heading lower, following the indicator down.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 19% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 18%.
The fewest was 17% on 11/25/2016.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 11% on 11/25/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows weakness, too, joining the CPI. The blue line, however, shows no net change from a week ago.

If you look closely at the chart, you can see that both lines have turned lower in the last day or so. This could be another indication of the start of a downward retrace.

Of it could be a pause where stocks go horizontal for a time, gathering strength for another push upward. It's hard to tell if this foretells weakness or just a pause.

If I had to guess, I'd say this shows weakness and we'll see the indices drop over the next week or two.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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