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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 01/17/2018
26,116 322.79 1.3%
11,258 31.16 0.3%
688 4.48 0.7%
7,298 74.59 1.0%
2,803 26.14 0.9%
YTD
5.6%
6.1%
-4.9%
5.7%
4.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 12/29/2017
26,750 or 25,000 by 02/01/2018
11,700 or 10,700 by 02/01/2018
675 or 720 by 02/01/2018
7,425 or 6,900 by 02/01/2018
2,875 or 2,700 by 02/01/2018

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Thursday 1/18/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 74.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 218 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 145 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 73 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 142/251 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/85 or 50.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I discussed in a prior blog about the slope of trendlines and how, after a trendline break, the slope often lessens.

But look at this chart. Notice how the slope increases in the three trendlines. The most recent trendline, the one which happened today (Wednesday), has a slope which is unsustainable (too steep).

Indeed, the index appears to have broken the most recent trendline.

All of this suggests the index is going to drop. When? I don't know. It could happen as soon as Thursday. Enthusiasm is awfully high now, and that enthusiasm can push the index much higher, but it also warns of a quick, steep drop when investors run for the exits (sell as a group).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,698.07    
 Monthly S1  6,998.17  300.11   
 Weekly S2  7,071.28  73.11   
 Monthly Pivot  7,131.72  60.44   
 Weekly S1  7,184.78  53.06   
 Daily S2  7,198.95  14.17   
 Weekly Pivot  7,225.02  26.07   
 Low  7,229.32  4.30   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  7,248.61  19.29   
 Open  7,257.77  9.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,259.90  2.13   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,269.34  9.44   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,278.78  9.44   
 Daily Pivot  7,278.99  0.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,298.28  19.29   
 High  7,309.36  11.08   
 Daily R1  7,328.65  19.29   
 Weekly R1  7,338.52  9.87   
 Daily R2  7,359.03  20.51   
 Weekly R2  7,378.76  19.73   
 Monthly R1  7,431.82  53.06   
 Monthly R2  7,565.37  133.54   

Wednesday 1/17/18. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice how the indicator has dropped precipitously today (Tuesday, after the close). I show that circled in magenta. At least I think it's magenta.

The indicator hasn't hit bearish territory, though. It's probably ventured into the neutral zone.

The Dow only fell 10 points today, but my portfolio got whacked. My guess is your holdings probably did, too. Maybe the transports show clearer the damage. They were down almost 150 points. That's equivalent to a drop of 371 points in the Dow.

Is this the start of a retrace or even a correction? Hard to tell. The 2018 chart predicts a sharp drop in January. This could be it.

Let's check the next chart.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Friday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 18%.
The fewest was 14% on 01/25/2017.
And the most was 30% on 08/21/2017.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 9% on 01/12/2018.
And the bottom was 16% on 08/21/2017.

This chart and the above stats say, "What? Me worry?" as if nothing happened to the broader market today. The trend for both red and blue lines is bullish.

The more sensitive red line improved by two percentage points. Even the blue one improved by a point.

My guess is it'll take more than one bummer session to drive the lines lower.

The two charts, taken together, are a contradiction. The CPI line's trend is bearish. The above chart is bullish. Maybe the CPI chart is a prediction of coming events. Let's wait and see what happens.

I feel fortunate that I did some pruning, now complete, to my portfolio. That freed up 10% to 15% of cash, which I haven't used yet. I can't find much worth buying at these prices.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/12/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDPipe bottom      12/26/201701/02/2018Electronics
AESDiamond top      11/21/201701/08/2018Electric Utility (East)
AMNTriangle, ascending      12/14/201701/10/2018Human Resources
AIZHead-and-shoulders complex top      12/12/201701/09/2018Insurance (Diversified)
BERYBroadening top      11/16/201701/08/2018Packaging and Container
CAGHead-and-shoulders top      12/04/201701/05/2018Food Processing
CTSTriangle, symmetrical      11/29/201701/10/2018Electronics
XRAYHead-and-shoulders top      11/06/201701/08/2018Medical Supplies
FICOBroadening top      12/04/201701/11/2018IT Services
FFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/15/201701/09/2018Insurance (Life)
FTNTTriangle, descending      12/19/201701/11/2018Computer Software and Svcs
FRDTriangle, symmetrical      12/05/201701/11/2018Building Materials
GISDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/27/201701/08/2018Food Processing
GPRODead-cat bounce      01/08/201801/08/2018Electronics
DHIBroadening wedge, ascending      12/06/201701/10/2018Homebuilding
ITWTriangle, ascending      12/01/201701/11/2018Metal Fabricating
PFETriangle, symmetrical      12/18/201701/11/2018Drug
KWRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/14/201701/10/2018Chemical (Specialty)
SEEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/19/201701/08/2018Packaging and Container
TEVAFlag, high and tight      11/13/201701/11/2018Drug
WGLRectangle top      06/16/201701/11/2018Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/04/2018 and 01/11/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 607 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $10.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.76 or 14.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.21%
Volume: 2,750,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/26/2017 to 01/02/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/01/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/31/2018 and a 38% chance by 05/02/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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AES Corp (AES)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 479 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $10.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.38 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.20%
Volume: 8,111,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,494,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/21/2017 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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AMN Healthcare (AMN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $49.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.31 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.01%
Volume: 524,900 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/14/2017 to 01/10/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Assurant Inc (AIZ)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $95.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.91 or 4.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.01%
Volume: 461,000 shares. 3 month avg: 454,446 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 12/12/2017 to 01/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Berry Global Group Inc (BERY)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 416 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $60.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.45 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.51%
Volume: 776,600 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/16/2017 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $36.76
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.14 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.42%
Volume: 2,705,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 12/04/2017 to 01/05/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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CTS Corp (CTS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 160 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $27.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.51 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.57%
Volume: 73,700 shares. 3 month avg: 73,662 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/29/2017 to 01/10/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dentsply International, Inc. (XRAY)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $64.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.61 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.40%
Volume: 6,574,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,979,632 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/06/2017 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $160.25
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $166.02 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.60%
Volume: 198,900 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/04/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 324 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $73.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.49 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.38%
Volume: 15,300 shares. 3 month avg: 25,002 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/15/2017 to 01/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $44.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.35 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.30%
Volume: 1,271,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 12/19/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $5.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.14 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.90%
Volume: 8,800 shares. 3 month avg: 27,460 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/05/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $58.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.38 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.02%
Volume: 2,878,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 12/27/2017 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $6.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.88 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.13%
Volume: 5,239,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/08/2018 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 49 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $52.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.95 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.90%
Volume: 4,152,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 12/06/2017 to 01/10/2018
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 279 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $169.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $163.20 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.29%
Volume: 830,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/01/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 351 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $36.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.65 or 2.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.94%
Volume: 14,313,900 shares. 3 month avg: 16,141,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/18/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Quaker Chemical (KWR)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 410 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $156.90
1 Month avg volatility: $2.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.62 or 7.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.05%
Volume: 96,800 shares. 3 month avg: 69,343 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/14/2017 to 01/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $48.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.08 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.32%
Volume: 2,727,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,419,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 12/19/2017 to 01/08/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 598 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $21.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.62 or 14.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.54%
Volume: 35,163,300 shares. 3 month avg: 26,334,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 11/13/2017 to 01/11/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/02/2017. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/01/2018 and a 38% chance by 05/03/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 609
1/11/18 close: $85.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.42 or 1.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.06%
Volume: 187,000 shares. 3 month avg: 264,052 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/16/2017 to 01/11/2018
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Thursday 1/11/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -10.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 576 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 316 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 260 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 141/250 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/85 or 50.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This looks suspiciously like Tuesday's chart.

I show a long red trendline under the index, spanning about a week. The line climbs at a sustainable rate -- not steep enough to poop out too quickly, but steep enough to keep people's interest.

Here's the interesting part.

Notice the second red line, yes, the shorter one. It's slope is just about parallel to the longer line. I've not seen that before.

Often when you see a trendline break, the security will trend, but at a slower, more shallow, slope. This time it's different.

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I updated the statistics on the Big W chart pattern and the performance over time page for all chart patterns.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,605.34    
 Weekly S2  6,858.60  253.27   
 Monthly S1  6,879.45  20.85   
 Weekly S1  7,006.09  126.63   
 Monthly Pivot  7,008.25  2.16   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  7,071.56  63.32   
 Daily S2  7,097.06  25.49   
 Low  7,111.52  14.46   
 Daily S1  7,125.31  13.79   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,127.84  2.53   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  7,129.83  1.99   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,132.88  3.05   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,137.92  5.04   
 Daily Pivot  7,139.78  1.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,153.57  13.79   
 High  7,154.24  0.67   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  7,168.03  13.79   
 Daily R2  7,182.50  14.46   
 Weekly R1  7,219.05  36.55   
 Monthly R1  7,282.36  63.32   
 Weekly R2  7,284.52  2.16   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  7,411.16  126.63   

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