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Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Thursday 4/24/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq
The index dropped by -0.8% or -34.49 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 226 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 1.0% on 110 occasions.
Average loss was -1.4% on 116 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 59/100 or 59.0% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 24/48 or 50.0% of the time.
Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.
This is a wonderful example of a descending triangle.
The breakout from this chart pattern is downward but the drop doesn't last long. That's expected since stocks often pull back to the breakout price or triangle trendline, as in this case (A).
The index has dropped from then and that's expected, too. This maneuver suggests the index will continue lower tomorrow (Thursday).
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2014 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 3,740.77 | | |
| Weekly S2 | 3,896.72 | 155.95 |
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| Monthly S1 | 3,933.87 | 37.15 |
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| Weekly S1 | 4,011.85 | 77.98 |
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| Weekly Pivot | 4,061.15 | 49.31 |
|
| Daily S2 | 4,101.91 | 40.76 |
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| Daily S1 | 4,114.44 | 12.53 |
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| Low | 4,125.41 | 10.97 |
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| Close | 4,126.97 | 1.56 |
Yes! The Close is close to the Low. |
| Daily Pivot | 4,137.94 | 10.97 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 4,139.13 | 1.19 |
Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot. |
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 4,139.17 | 0.04 |
Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 4,143.42 | 4.25 |
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| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 4,147.68 | 4.25 |
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| Daily R1 | 4,150.47 | 2.79 |
Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. |
| Open | 4,160.90 | 10.43 |
|
| High | 4,161.44 | 0.54 |
Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
| Daily R2 | 4,173.97 | 12.53 |
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| Weekly R1 | 4,176.28 | 2.31 |
Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2. |
| Weekly R2 | 4,225.58 | 49.31 |
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| Monthly R1 | 4,332.23 | 106.65 |
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| Monthly R2 | 4,537.49 | 205.26 |
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Wednesday 4/23/14. What's Hot Wednesday
The following are taken from my database of about 560 stocks and 100 exchange traded funds (ETFs), not from the entire stock market.
Stocks and ETFs with the least amount of noise (low noise means it trends up, down, or both rather than moving sideways) make for better swing trading candidates.
ETFs, on average, have lower noise levels than stocks, but that could be due to lots of gaps (which I consider bad).
Click here for more information on noise.
Biggest winners and losers over the past week, from the close on 04/15/2014 to 04/22/2014 and year to date.
These lists are useful for momentum players, those that buy stocks moving up or trending lower. Also, look for several stocks from the same industry. Finding some may
give a clue to an industry on the move, one either trending up or suffering. The lists also include country ETFs. If those are performing well, consider diversifying into them.
Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past month.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 9.5% | $24.49 | -38.59% | Best Buy Co. (BBY) | Retail (Special Lines) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 14.3% | $2.12 | -69.76% | Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN) | Biotechnology | Dead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014 |
| 14.3% | $29.43 | 15.19% | CRH plc (CRH) | Cement and Aggregates | Scallop, ascending and inverted from 08/28/2013 to 10/09/2013 |
| 19.0% | $131.97 | 1.49% | Praxair Inc. (PX) | Chemical (Diversified) | Triple top from 11/18/2013 to 12/02/2013 |
| 19.0% | $24.01 | -14.34% | Harsco Corp (HSC) | Diversified Co. | Pipe top from 07/29/2013 to 08/05/2013 |
| 19.0% | $17.69 | 13.91% | Genworth Financial Inc (GNW) | Insurance (Life) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 19.0% | $21.23 | 19.14% | Corning Inc. (GLW) | Telecom. Equipment | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 02/13/2014 to 03/27/2014 |
| 19.0% | $26.58 | -14.06% | Brady Corp (BRC) | Chemical (Diversified) | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 03/13/2014 to 04/07/2014 |
| 19.0% | $86.20 | 0.30% | Apache Corp. (APA) | Petroleum (Producing) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| 23.8% | $66.67 | 9.23% | Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK) | Chemical (Basic) | Scallop, ascending and inverted from 02/05/2014 to 03/27/2014 |
Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 27.4% | $2.12 | -69.76% | Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN) | Biotechnology | Dead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014 |
| 29.0% | $29.43 | 15.19% | CRH plc (CRH) | Cement and Aggregates | Scallop, ascending and inverted from 08/28/2013 to 10/09/2013 |
| 29.0% | $31.27 | -7.21% | ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG) | Food Processing | Double Top, Eve and Adam from 07/18/2013 to 08/05/2013 |
| 30.6% | $39.23 | 22.44% | Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG) | Electric Utility (East) | Pipe bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/10/2014 |
| 30.6% | $84.10 | -18.37% | NetSuite Inc (N) | E-Commerce | Broadening top from 09/23/2013 to 10/29/2013 |
| 30.6% | $112.43 | 2.27% | Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 09/24/2013 to 10/17/2013 |
| 32.3% | $39.47 | -1.47% | WGL Holdings (WGL) | Natural Gas (Distributor) | Triangle, symmetrical from 03/04/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| 32.3% | $14.39 | 79.65% | Pioneer Energy Services (PES) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Triangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013 |
| 32.3% | $47.55 | -6.91% | Mens Warehouse (MW) | Retail (Special Lines) | Rectangle top from 11/27/2013 to 01/16/2014 |
| 32.3% | $86.14 | -10.77% | Dover Corp (DOV) | Machinery | Double Top, Eve and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014 |
Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 32.3% | $27.07 | 3.84% | International Rectifier Corp (IRF) | Semiconductor | Broadening top from 03/03/2014 to 04/10/2014 |
| 33.1% | $40.06 | 8.98% | Textron Inc (TXT) | Diversified Co. | Double Top, Eve and Eve from 03/07/2014 to 04/04/2014 |
| 33.9% | $422.33 | 9.96% | Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) | Medical Supplies | Pipe top from 10/07/2013 to 10/14/2013 |
| 34.7% | $79.67 | -3.24% | Home Depot, Inc (HD) | Retail Building Supply | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 11/19/2013 to 01/02/2014 |
| 34.7% | $138.89 | -0.97% | 3M Company (MMM) | Diversified Co. | Channel from 04/11/2013 to 11/13/2013 |
| 35.5% | $68.30 | -8.08% | Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) | Biotechnology | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 35.5% | $14.39 | 79.65% | Pioneer Energy Services (PES) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Triangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013 |
| 35.5% | $9.01 | -7.87% | Infinera Corp. (INFN) | Telecom. Equipment | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| 35.5% | $26.58 | -5.17% | General Electric Co (GE) | Diversified Co. | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 01/24/2014 to 02/21/2014 |
| 35.5% | $48.94 | 10.23% | Dow Chemical (DOW) | Chemical (Basic) | Broadening wedge, descending from 05/22/2013 to 07/11/2013 |
Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past month.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 4.8% | $18.03 | 15.65% | MSCI Italy Index (EWI) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 14.3% | $51.70 | 8.48% | MSCI Turkey Index (TUR) | Long ETFs | Triangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 14.3% | $13.54 | 2.81% | MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013 |
| 14.3% | $26.70 | 9.56% | MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014 |
| 19.0% | $123.78 | 6.60% | SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | Metals and Mining (Div.) | Head-and-shoulders top from 07/23/2013 to 09/19/2013 |
| 19.0% | $40.79 | 10.09% | PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE) | Biotechnology | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 19.0% | $234.72 | 3.37% | Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB) | Biotechnology | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 19.0% | $41.64 | 7.96% | MSCI Spain Index (EWP) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011 |
| 19.0% | $63.85 | -1.27% | MSCI South Korea Index (EWY) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013 |
| 19.0% | $17.55 | 7.08% | MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 17.7% | $17.55 | 7.08% | MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 19.4% | $63.85 | -1.27% | MSCI South Korea Index (EWY) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013 |
| 21.0% | $13.54 | 2.81% | MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013 |
| 21.8% | $55.06 | -0.46% | Market Vectors Money-Center (RKH) | Long ETFs | Rising wedge from 09/19/2013 to 12/04/2013 |
| 22.6% | $20.06 | 1.26% | MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014 |
| 22.6% | $26.70 | 9.56% | MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014 |
| 24.2% | $51.70 | 8.48% | MSCI Turkey Index (TUR) | Long ETFs | Triangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 24.2% | $34.71 | 5.21% | MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Roof from 02/14/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| 25.8% | $16.65 | -17.78% | UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG) | Short ETFs | Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014 |
| 25.8% | $123.78 | 6.60% | SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | Metals and Mining (Div.) | Head-and-shoulders top from 07/23/2013 to 09/19/2013 |
Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.
Average
Noise | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 18.8% | $55.06 | -0.46% | Market Vectors Money-Center (RKH) | Long ETFs | Rising wedge from 09/19/2013 to 12/04/2013 |
| 25.0% | $51.70 | 8.48% | MSCI Turkey Index (TUR) | Long ETFs | Triangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 25.0% | $26.70 | 9.56% | MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014 |
| 25.4% | $16.65 | -17.78% | UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG) | Short ETFs | Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014 |
| 26.6% | $36.31 | 1.34% | MSCI Sweden Index (EWD) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/22/2014 |
| 26.6% | $63.85 | -1.27% | MSCI South Korea Index (EWY) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013 |
| 27.4% | $41.64 | 7.96% | MSCI Spain Index (EWP) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011 |
| 27.4% | $17.55 | 7.08% | MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 28.2% | $13.54 | 2.81% | MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013 |
| 28.2% | $20.06 | 1.26% | MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO) | Investment Co. (Foreign) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014 |
Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance during the past week out of 506 stocks.
Stocks from this list may suggest what stocks or industries will do well in the future.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 41.82% | $9.80 | 42.24% | Cbeyond, Inc. (CBEY) | Telecom. Equipment | Rectangle top from 12/23/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 28.05% | $163.65 | 47.33% | Allergan, Inc (AGN) | Biotechnology | Rectangle top from 07/15/2013 to 08/08/2013 |
| 21.91% | $2.12 | -69.76% | Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN) | Biotechnology | Dead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014 |
| 18.84% | $20.06 | 53.72% | SunEdison (SUNE) | Semiconductor | Double Top, Eve and Eve from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| 18.39% | $13.52 | 24.61% | Arrowhead Research Corp (ARWR) | Biotechnology | Triangle, symmetrical from 03/31/2014 to 04/09/2014 |
| 18.09% | $26.18 | 20.37% | Micron Technology (MU) | Semiconductor | Triangle, ascending from 01/14/2014 to 02/05/2014 |
| 14.43% | $49.32 | -2.59% | Incyte Corp. (INCY) | Drug | Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| 13.46% | $4.30 | 11.11% | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) | Semiconductor | Rectangle top from 02/11/2014 to 03/06/2014 |
| 12.92% | $147.98 | 33.81% | Illumina Inc (ILMN) | Biotechnology | Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| 12.85% | $24.33 | -0.04% | Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR) | Securities Brokerage | Channel from 08/30/2013 to 11/07/2013 |
Below are the 10 worst performing stocks during the past week out of 506 stocks.
Stocks from this list suggest companies or industries that may be having difficulty and might be future short sale candidates.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| -9.54% | $41.52 | 16.89% | Lexmark International Inc. (LXK) | Computers and Peripherals | Pipe bottom from 12/09/2013 to 12/16/2013 |
| -9.30% | $17.56 | -17.64% | Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) | Internet | Scallop, descending from 01/23/2014 to 02/19/2014 |
| -6.81% | $22.99 | -14.88% | ADTRAN Inc (ADTN) | Telecom. Equipment | Broadening top from 12/02/2013 to 01/22/2014 |
| -6.06% | $241.76 | -8.05% | Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS) | Information Services | Double Top, Eve and Adam from 01/03/2014 to 01/23/2014 |
| -5.75% | $15.42 | 24.96% | Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC) | Metals and Mining (Div.) | Pipe top from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014 |
| -3.69% | $30.28 | -22.62% | Rackspace Hosting (RAX) | E-Commerce | Double Top, Eve and Eve from 09/19/2013 to 10/29/2013 |
| -3.38% | $7.15 | -2.05% | Universal American Financial Corp (UAM) | Insurance (Life) | Pipe top from 03/03/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| -3.15% | $3.07 | -0.32% | Hecla Mining Co. (HL) | Metals and Mining (Div.) | Triangle, descending from 02/19/2014 to 03/21/2014 |
| -3.14% | $3.08 | -43.28% | Cache (CACH) | Apparel | Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| -2.57% | $36.05 | -12.38% | Network Appliance (NTAP) | Computers and Peripherals | Head-and-shoulders top from 12/20/2013 to 01/09/2014 |
Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance year to date out of 506 stocks.
Knowing which securities are trending higher makes selecting stocks for momentum trades much easier, especially if some share the same industry.
YTD
Change | Last
Close | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 87.80% | $39.40 | Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN) | Biotechnology | Flag, high and tight from 12/30/2013 to 02/21/2014 |
| 79.65% | $14.39 | Pioneer Energy Services (PES) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Triangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013 |
| 58.01% | $11.93 | Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW) | Retail (Special Lines) | Pipe bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| 54.07% | $7.95 | RF Micro Devices Inc. (RFMD) | Semiconductor | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 01/10/2014 to 01/24/2014 |
| 53.72% | $20.06 | SunEdison (SUNE) | Semiconductor | Double Top, Eve and Eve from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| 48.50% | $25.23 | Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Broadening bottom from 06/03/2013 to 06/20/2013 |
| 47.33% | $163.65 | Allergan, Inc (AGN) | Biotechnology | Rectangle top from 07/15/2013 to 08/08/2013 |
| 42.24% | $9.80 | Cbeyond, Inc. (CBEY) | Telecom. Equipment | Rectangle top from 12/23/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 38.48% | $33.83 | Matrix Service Co. (MTRX) | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment | Rectangle top from 02/26/2014 to 04/10/2014 |
| 34.71% | $113.26 | Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP) | Petroleum (Producing) | Diamond top from 01/21/2014 to 02/10/2014 |
Below are the 10 worst performing stocks year to date out of 506 stocks.
These stocks might represent a good momentum trade from the short side. If some stocks also share the same industry, then the industry may be weak, so concentrate your search there.
YTD
Change | Last
Close | Stock | Industry | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| -69.76% | $2.12 | Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN) | Biotechnology | Dead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014 |
| -45.98% | $1.95 | Forest Oil Corp (FST) | Petroleum (Producing) | Dead-cat bounce from 02/26/2014 to 02/26/2014 |
| -43.28% | $3.08 | Cache (CACH) | Apparel | Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
| -41.63% | $5.30 | Vivus Inc (VVUS) | Biotechnology | Pipe bottom from 11/04/2013 to 11/11/2013 |
| -40.30% | $46.98 | Conns Inc (CONN) | Retail (Special Lines) | Pipe bottom from 03/10/2014 to 03/17/2014 |
| -38.59% | $24.49 | Best Buy Co. (BBY) | Retail (Special Lines) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| -36.94% | $8.81 | hhgregg, Inc (HGG) | Retail (Special Lines) | Head-and-shoulders top from 08/26/2013 to 10/24/2013 |
| -35.99% | $88.47 | Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS) | Household Products | Triangle, descending from 01/16/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
| -31.76% | $4.45 | Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO) | Petroleum (Producing) | Pipe bottom from 12/09/2013 to 12/16/2013 |
| -30.97% | $4.57 | Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) | Homebuilding | Falling wedge from 06/24/2013 to 11/27/2013 |
Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance this past week out of 95 ETFs.
A hot ETF may suggest an industry or commodity that is doing well, so look there for individual stock picks or just trade the ETF for a momentum play.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 7.86% | $234.72 | 3.37% | Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 6.79% | $89.53 | 1.14% | Market Vectors Biotech (BBH) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 6.35% | $57.58 | 7.67% | PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP) | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 08/15/2013 to 10/24/2013 |
| 6.22% | $128.79 | 9.05% | DJ US Pharmaceuticals index fund (IHE) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 06/06/2013 to 07/03/2013 |
| 6.00% | $40.79 | 10.09% | PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 5.91% | $98.79 | -0.81% | Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | Broadening wedge, descending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| 5.86% | $37.76 | -2.28% | DJ US Broker-dealers index fund (IAI) | Broadening wedge, descending from 09/24/2013 to 10/09/2013 |
| 5.65% | $59.26 | 11.58% | Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 05/15/2013 to 05/30/2013 |
| 4.40% | $18.03 | 15.65% | MSCI Italy Index (EWI) | Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 4.13% | $31.49 | -0.85% | MSCI Germany Index (EWG) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014 |
Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs over the past week out of 95 ETFs.
These funds may represent companies or industries that are suffering. Avoid going long in those stocks or buying any stocks from those industries.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| -5.67% | $58.23 | -2.89% | Nasdaq 100 short 2x ProShares (QID) | Broadening wedge, ascending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| -5.45% | $16.65 | -17.78% | UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG) | Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014 |
| -5.06% | $43.00 | -12.62% | UltraShort 2x Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG) | Triple bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/11/2014 |
| -4.39% | $31.14 | -9.03% | UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/27/2014 |
| -3.88% | $28.00 | -5.60% | S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS) | Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 03/18/2013 to 04/18/2013 |
| -3.86% | $19.90 | -8.04% | UltraShort 2x Technology ProShares (REW) | Pipe top from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| -3.33% | $16.70 | -4.11% | UltraShort 2x Financials ProShares (SKF) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 10/05/2012 to 11/02/2012 |
| -3.20% | $26.88 | -1.97% | DJIA short 2x ProShares (DXD) | Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 07/03/2013 to 10/09/2013 |
| -2.91% | $18.01 | -1.31% | Nasdaq 100 short 1x ProShares (PSQ) | Broadening wedge, ascending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| -2.27% | $17.22 | -20.24% | UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 08/19/2013 to 09/03/2013 |
Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance year to date out of 95 ETFs.
Concentrate your individual stock picks from industries that are doing well, or trade the ETF for a momentum play.
YTD
Change | Last
Close | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 27.60% | $26.40 | United States Natural Gas (UNG) | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/24/2014 to 04/01/2014 |
| 19.59% | $29.00 | PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/21/2014 to 04/02/2014 |
| 15.65% | $18.03 | MSCI Italy Index (EWI) | Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 13.09% | $84.50 | iShares Cohen and Steers Realty Majors (ICF) | Triangle, descending from 12/04/2013 to 01/02/2014 |
| 11.58% | $59.26 | Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 05/15/2013 to 05/30/2013 |
| 11.43% | $42.31 | SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU) | Rising wedge from 02/21/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| 10.72% | $76.01 | MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD) | Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012 |
| 10.68% | $106.05 | DJ US Utilities sector index fund (IDU) | Rising wedge from 02/24/2014 to 04/03/2014 |
| 10.09% | $40.79 | PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE) | Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| 10.00% | $79.98 | iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX) | Broadening top from 05/29/2013 to 06/24/2013 |
Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs year to date out of 95 ETFs. These represent the stocks or industries you will want to avoid buying or want to concentrate selling short.
YTD
Change | Last
Close | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| -20.24% | $17.22 | UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 08/19/2013 to 09/03/2013 |
| -17.78% | $16.65 | UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG) | Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014 |
| -12.62% | $43.00 | UltraShort 2x Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG) | Triple bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/11/2014 |
| -9.03% | $31.14 | UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/27/2014 |
| -8.56% | $11.10 | MSCI Japan Index fund (EWJ) | Rectangle top from 09/09/2013 to 01/30/2014 |
| -8.04% | $19.90 | UltraShort 2x Technology ProShares (REW) | Pipe top from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014 |
| -7.71% | $35.41 | FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index fund (FXI) | Pipe bottom from 03/10/2014 to 03/17/2014 |
| -6.24% | $63.76 | MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt idx (EWW) | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/03/2014 to 03/14/2014 |
| -5.60% | $28.00 | S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS) | Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 03/18/2013 to 04/18/2013 |
| -4.51% | $23.70 | DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB) | Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014 |
Below is a list of market index performance over the past week.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Index | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 3.59% | 7,734.90 | 4.52% | DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT) | Broadening wedge, descending from 03/07/2014 to 03/31/2014 |
| 3.16% | 4,161.46 | -0.36% | Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | Broadening wedge, descending from 03/06/2014 to 04/02/2014 |
| 1.98% | 1,879.55 | 1.69% | S and P 500 (^GSPC) | Head-and-shoulders top from 11/18/2013 to 12/09/2013 |
| 1.55% | 16,514.37 | -0.38% | DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI) | Broadening top from 03/03/2014 to 04/14/2014 |
| -0.34% | 542.82 | 10.65% | DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 12/02/2013 to 01/03/2014 |
Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance this past week out of 26 ETFs. These may highlight emerging markets that are ready to soar.
Week
Change | Last
Close | YTD | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 4.40% | $18.03 | 15.65% | MSCI Italy Index (EWI) | Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 4.13% | $31.49 | -0.85% | MSCI Germany Index (EWG) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014 |
| 3.58% | $76.01 | 10.72% | MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD) | Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012 |
| 2.63% | $47.15 | 5.53% | MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ) | Scallop, ascending from 09/20/2013 to 10/16/2013 |
| 2.56% | $41.64 | 7.96% | MSCI Spain Index (EWP) | Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011 |
| 2.56% | $20.06 | 1.26% | MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO) | Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014 |
| 2.53% | $21.06 | 0.86% | MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 12/31/2013 to 01/22/2014 |
| 2.51% | $17.55 | 7.08% | MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 2.46% | $26.70 | 9.56% | MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA) | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014 |
| 2.44% | $29.78 | 4.67% | MSCI France Index (EWQ) | Broadening top from 11/06/2013 to 12/31/2013 |
Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance year to date out of 26 ETFs.
Finding several countries from a similar region that is performing well helps identify which international mutual fund or ETF may continue to do well in the future.
YTD
Change | Last
Close | Fund | Most Recent Chart Pattern |
| 15.65% | $18.03 | MSCI Italy Index (EWI) | Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 10.72% | $76.01 | MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD) | Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012 |
| 9.56% | $26.70 | MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA) | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014 |
| 8.82% | $52.69 | MSCI Israel Cap Invest Mt Index (EIS) | Double Top, Adam and Adam from 10/11/2013 to 10/22/2013 |
| 8.48% | $51.70 | MSCI Turkey Index (TUR) | Triangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014 |
| 7.96% | $41.64 | MSCI Spain Index (EWP) | Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011 |
| 7.08% | $17.55 | MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK) | Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014 |
| 6.74% | $49.88 | MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index fund (EPP) | Broadening top from 07/17/2013 to 09/11/2013 |
| 5.53% | $47.15 | MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ) | Scallop, ascending from 09/20/2013 to 10/16/2013 |
| 5.21% | $34.71 | MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL) | Roof from 02/14/2014 to 03/20/2014 |
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Tuesday 4/22/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow
The index climbed by 0.2% or 40.71 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1228 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.6% on 669 occasions.
Average loss was -0.6% on 559 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 70/107 or 65.4% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/37 or 54.1% of the time.
Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.
I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's and Monday's trading.
A broadening top chart pattern appears at C. This one was special since it highlighted the breakout direction: up. At A, a partial decline appears that suggests
an upward breakout. Unfortunately, the chart pattern hasn't staged a breakout yet since it hasn't close above the top or below the bottom of the chart pattern. Plus the upward move came today (Monday) and not
Friday when the chart pattern appeared.
Today, a symmetrical triangle appears at B. Price did close above the top of the chart pattern, staging an upward breakout. Then price threw back to the triangle's apex, D,
and has started moving up. This suggests the upward move will continue, at least in the morning. World events over night could change that, of course. And so could daytime events. Sigh. Did you know that a day
without sunshine is like night? 
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2014 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 15,749.09 | | |
| Weekly S2 | 15,880.48 | 131.39 |
|
| Monthly S1 | 16,099.17 | 218.69 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 16,164.86 | 65.69 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 16,312.68 | 147.81 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 16,365.40 | 52.72 |
|
| Daily S2 | 16,379.34 | 13.94 |
|
| Low | 16,402.08 | 22.74 |
|
| Open | 16,408.92 | 6.84 |
|
| Daily S1 | 16,414.29 | 5.37 |
Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open. |
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 16,424.12 | 9.83 |
|
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 16,430.93 | 6.81 |
|
| Daily Pivot | 16,437.04 | 6.11 |
|
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 16,437.74 | 0.70 |
Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
| Close | 16,449.25 | 11.51 |
|
| High | 16,459.78 | 10.53 |
|
| Daily R1 | 16,471.99 | 12.21 |
|
| Daily R2 | 16,494.74 | 22.74 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 16,597.06 | 102.33 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 16,715.48 | 118.42 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 16,744.88 | 29.40 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 16,981.71 | 236.83 |
|
Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
|
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