As of 09/18/2020   Indus: 27,657 -244.56 -0.9%     Trans: 11,432 -120.44 -1.0%     Utils: 798 -12.86 -1.6%     Nasdaq: 10,793 -117.00 -1.1%     S&P 500: 3,319 -37.54 -1.1%	YTD -3.1%    +4.9%   -9.2%    +20.3%    +2.7%	Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020     29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020   11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020   845 or 775 by 10/01/2020   11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020   3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 8/18/20

As of 09/18/2020   Indus: 27,657 -244.56 -0.9%     Trans: 11,432 -120.44 -1.0%     Utils: 798 -12.86 -1.6%     Nasdaq: 10,793 -117.00 -1.1%     S&P 500: 3,319 -37.54 -1.1%	YTD -3.1%    +4.9%   -9.2%    +20.3%    +2.7%
Targets    Overview: 09/14/2020     29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020   11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020   845 or 775 by 10/01/2020   11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020   3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 8/18/20

Monday 9/21/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, the index made a double bottom. It confirmed when the index closed above the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Although I don't show it on the chart, the confirmation let to a whopper of a move up, easily fulfilling the measure rule (the height of the double bottom added to the breakout price to get a price target).

I think the index is going to recover but I could be wrong. In view of my belief, I used a price mirror to show what I think will happen.

That appears at C.

You can see that I reflected the last month or so across the green line.

In the short term, I expect weakness in the indices. It might drop more, but I think it'll move sideways and then start to perk up.

Despite the way I've drawn this, I don't expect the index to reach the height of the September peak. More likely, it'll fall short of that peak.

Of course, with the death of RGB (Ginsburg), there's no telling what kind of fireworks are going to happen.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, AMED, ABC, AAPL, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BG, CACI, CLS, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHS, CGNX, CL, CAG, CSOD, COST, CREE, CRH, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, ETFC, EXP, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FWRD, GIS, GNW, GOOGL, HE, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HUBG, HURC, IDA, ILMN, INFN, INOV, NSP, IBKR, TILE, IPI, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, LZB, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SCCO, SR, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TOL, RIG, TREX, V, WERN, WU, WMB, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHI, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EPP, EZA, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 9/18/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMZN, AMED, APOG, ATR, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, CDNS, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLF, CRH, CSGS, DECK, EBAY, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FICO, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HD, DHI, ITW, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, K, KBAL, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, MANH, MAS, MDC, MSFT, MLHR, MLI, MYL, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NUS, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PHM, RJF, REV, RLI, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TECH, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VMI, VC, WLK, WEX, WSM, WDAY, IYM, ITB, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, QLD, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 9/17/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The last two days have formed a chart pattern. What's its name? Do you know?

The pattern's name is a mouthful: broadening formation, right-angled and descending. I show it in red on the chart.

The chart pattern indicator has turned bullish today but the signal can disappear for up to a week. I mention that because the index is resting on the bottom portion of the chart pattern.

It might have pierced the bottom line, but it's hard to tell in this chart. Anyway, these patterns breakout upward 64% of the time. So my guess is the index will bounce off the line and rise tomorrow, heading for the top trendline.

The above stats disagree with that assessment. And it's possible that news of people unemployed might send a shockwave through the markets at the open tomorrow, so anything goes these days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AMD, AMZN, AMED, AEL, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKH, BA, CBT, COG, CDNS, CAL, CNP, CENX, CRL, CSCO, CTXS, ED, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DECK, ^DJT, EXP, EIX, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GOOGL, HLIT, HTLD, HD, DHI, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, INOV, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, LEN, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDCA, MSFT, MYGN, CNR, NFLX, NEU, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, POL, PHM, KWR, QCOM, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, SO, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TPX, TDC, TXN, TOL, TSCO, UPS, VRSN, VC, WLK, WSM, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, QTEC, IGV, SOXX, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWU, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XHB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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