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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 08/28/2015
16,643 -11.76 -0.1%
7,909 41.94 0.5%
572 -1.55 -0.3%
4,828 15.61 0.3%
1,989 1.21 0.1%
YTD
-6.6%
-13.5%
-7.4%
1.9%
-3.4%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 08/14/2015
16,700 or 14,700 by 09/15/2015
8,100 or 7,500 by 09/15/2015
600 or 560 by 09/15/2015
5,000 or 4,500 by 09/15/2015
2,000 or 1,800 by 09/15/2015
Wilder RSI: -4.6%

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Donate now to keep this website free. Thanks -- Tom

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Monday 8/31/15. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

One of the big questions many have been pondering is what happens now? Will the recovery be V-shaped, trend lower to form a double bottom, or just continue recovering?

That follows the large drop in the indices over the last two weeks.

The answer is easy: No one knows.

But we can guess.

A look at the chart shows the red line as a line of overhead resistance setup by the almost horizontal movement this year.

The V-shaped recovery has already occurred, but it's a narrow one. I show that in a weird blue color.

The V-shaped recovery could turn into an extended V bottom. In that chart pattern, the index looks like it's forming a flag. In other words, price moves horizontally to down, forming a kind of handle on the V-turn. See the image below for a picture of this extension.

An extended V-bottom could be what we're starting to see now. The rapid recovery in the indices has slowed and we might see it drift sideways to down.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of an extended v bottom.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 588.4 points.
Tuesday: Down 204.91 points.
Wednesday: Up 619.07 points.
Thursday: Up 369.26 points.
Friday: Down 11.76 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 183.26 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 122.28 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 17.98 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.3% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
     8.3% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
     7.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
     12.5% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
     6.8% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
     6.5% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 MBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 TDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales5:00? TC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.
Productivity & costs8:30 WD+Cost of producing a unit of output.
Factory orders10:00 WD+Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
FEDs Beige book2:00 W?Reports on economic conditions.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Trade balance8:30 ThC+Signals balance of exports & imports.
4 Employment reports8:30 FANonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/28/2015, the CPI had:

1 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
246 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 75.0%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,481  16,562  16,616  16,697  16,751 
Weekly  14,928  15,786  16,228  17,085  17,527 
Monthly  14,186  15,414  16,599  17,828  19,012 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,968  1,978  1,986  1,997  2,004 
Weekly  1,823  1,906  1,950  2,033  2,076 
Monthly  1,743  1,866  1,990  2,113  2,237 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,769  4,799  4,818  4,847  4,866 
Weekly  4,108  4,468  4,652  5,013  5,197 
Monthly  3,882  4,355  4,765  5,238  5,648 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 19.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.5%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Pipe top
16Dead-cat bounce
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
10Head-and-shoulders top
8Triangle, symmetrical
6Pipe bottom
6Channel
5Triple top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Top, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Short ETFs
2. Short ETFs2. Shoe
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Internet
5. Internet5. Insurance (Life)
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Semiconductor
53. Semiconductor53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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Friday 8/28/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 15 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Chemical (Diversified)
ACXMScallop, ascending and inverted      08/03/201508/24/2015Computer Software and Svcs
AGOPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Insurance (Life)
BLLPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Packaging and Container
BZHBroadening wedge, descending      07/14/201508/24/2015Homebuilding
COGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXPPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Cement and Aggregates
ELNKPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Internet
EDEBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/26/201508/26/2015Electric Utility (Central)
FEBroadening bottom      06/15/201508/26/2015Electric Utility (East)
GSOLTriangle, symmetrical      08/10/201508/27/2015Advertising
LGBroadening top      07/22/201508/24/2015Natural Gas (Distributor)
MANPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Human Resources
MWWPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Advertising
NFGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Natural Gas (Diversified)
OXYPipe top      08/17/201508/17/2015Petroleum (Producing)
OGEPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Electric Utility (Central)
PORPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Electric Utility (West)
RHIBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/22/201508/24/2015Human Resources
COLPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Aerospace/Defense
SPFBroadening top      07/07/201508/26/2015Homebuilding
USGPipe top      08/10/201508/17/2015Building Materials

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/20/2015 and 08/27/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 93 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $22.59
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.94 or 10.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.10%
Volume: 199,600 shares. 3 month avg: 162,514 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Acxiom Corp (ACXM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $20.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.21 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.01%
Volume: 465,000 shares. 3 month avg: 562,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 08/03/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 43%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 247 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $24.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.53 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.04%
Volume: 1,545,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,301,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 306 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $65.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $70.04 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.36%
Volume: 2,358,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,020,071 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 216 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $16.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.98 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.67%
Volume: 1,174,600 shares. 3 month avg: 523,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 07/14/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $23.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.91 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.05%
Volume: 12,896,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,880,831 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $80.76
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.00 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.22%
Volume: 1,020,000 shares. 3 month avg: 714,649 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $8.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.32 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 91.80%
Volume: 913,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,236,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $22.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.01 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.96%
Volume: 214,200 shares. 3 month avg: 241,051 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/26/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $32.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.64 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.62%
Volume: 4,199,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,728,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 11 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $7.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.91 or 12.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.37%
Volume: 31,300 shares. 3 month avg: 122,458 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Laclede Group (LG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $53.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.51 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.09%
Volume: 249,700 shares. 3 month avg: 276,674 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/22/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Manpower Inc. (MAN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $87.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $92.32 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 28.78%
Volume: 703,100 shares. 3 month avg: 653,172 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $6.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.57 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 48.48%
Volume: 1,811,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,340,615 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $54.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.44 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.32%
Volume: 647,300 shares. 3 month avg: 484,265 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 345 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $70.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.49 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.47%
Volume: 8,111,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,861,582 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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OGE Energy Corp (OGE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $28.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.84 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.56%
Volume: 1,351,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,149,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $35.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.56 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.14%
Volume: 758,900 shares. 3 month avg: 759,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 401 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $52.48
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.28 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.11%
Volume: 1,089,100 shares. 3 month avg: 896,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 06/22/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 281 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $83.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $87.00 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.15%
Volume: 657,700 shares. 3 month avg: 887,025 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Standard Pacific (SPF)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 197 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $8.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.09 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.91%
Volume: 2,338,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/07/2015 to 08/26/2015
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 100 out of 572
8/27/15 close: $30.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.27 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.43%
Volume: 2,354,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,859,625 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/10/2015 to 08/17/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 8/27/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 4.2% or 191.05 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 6 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.6% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -4.4% on 3 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 91/153 or 59.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

A trading tip.

$ $ $

Here's a trading tip that I used in my day trading days that I want to pass on.

Suppose you have a trading setup that puts you long into a trade shown in the chart. At line A, the stock has made three consecutive higher peaks. That tells me we have a strong move upward. It's best if there is little overlap from price bar to price bar (I show overlap).

When the fourth price bar in the series appears, place a stop a penny or two below the prior bar. In this example, when A appears, place a stop below B.

When bar C appears, move the stop up to D. When bar E appears, raise the stop to F.

Notice that when the trend changes on bar E, it takes you out near the peak.

In these volatile times when runs are fast, I think this technique will help you get out near the top of a trend.

It also works for downtrends.

I use this technique on the opening gap setup I describe in my book, Swing and Day TradingSwing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.. I show a picture of the book on the right.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,352.61    
 Weekly S2  4,445.44  92.83   
 Daily S2  4,469.91  24.47   
 Monthly S1  4,525.07  55.17   
 Low  4,530.03  4.96   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  4,571.49  41.46   
 Daily S1  4,583.72  12.23   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,596.48  12.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,617.00  20.52   
 Open  4,633.51  16.51   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,637.52  4.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  4,643.85  6.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  4,697.54  53.69   
 High  4,703.97  6.43   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  4,757.66  53.69   
 Daily R2  4,817.79  60.12   
 Weekly Pivot  4,832.09  14.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  4,878.51  46.42   
 Weekly R1  4,958.14  79.63   
 Monthly R1  5,050.97  92.83   
 Weekly R2  5,218.74  167.77   
 Monthly R2  5,404.41  185.67   

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