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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
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Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 07/20/2018
25,058 -6.38 0.0%
10,742 -6.15 -0.1%
718 -5.76 -0.8%
7,820 -5.10 -0.1%
2,802 -2.66 -0.1%
YTD
1.4%
1.2%
-0.7%
13.3%
4.8%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/13/2018
25,700 or 24,000 by 08/01/2018
11,000 or 10,000 by 08/01/2018
750 or 700 by 08/01/2018
8,000 or 7,500 by 08/01/2018
2,850 or 2,725 by 08/01/2018

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

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Monday 7/23/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Price is following an upward channel, but how do you draw it?

Locate three major turning points, which I have marked ABC. Two of them with be minor highs or two of them will be minor lows.

I show AC as the two minor lows. Draw a line connecting the bottoms of those two valleys (AC) and extend it into the future.

At B, draw a line parallel to AC and extend it into the future.

This is what's called a three-point channel. It can be a bit more involved than I describe here, so click the link for more information.

$ $ $

I released new research on overhead resistance.

Here's what I learned.

  1. Stocks perform better when overhead resistance is present.
  2. Stocks priced at $20 or below outperform higher priced issues.
  3. Superior performance when overhead resistance is present occurs at nearly all decade price levels from $10 to $200 (the one exception: $30, where stocks facing no overhead resistance outperformed).
  4. The stocks peaked, on average, about midway through each period (peaked in 4 days for the 1 week period, for example)

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 44.95 points.
Tuesday: Up 55.53 points.
Wednesday: Up 79.4 points.
Thursday: Down 134.79 points.
Friday: Down 6.38 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 38.71 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 5.78 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 0.52 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.9% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     7.3% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 7,867.15 on 07/17/2018.
     17.9% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     10.6% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,918  24,988  25,056  25,126  25,194 
Weekly  24,849  24,953  25,084  25,189  25,320 
Monthly  23,539  24,298  24,757  25,517  25,975 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,794  2,798  2,804  2,808  2,814 
Weekly  2,775  2,788  2,803  2,816  2,830 
Monthly  2,645  2,724  2,770  2,848  2,895 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,788  7,804  7,832  7,848  7,876 
Weekly  7,695  7,757  7,812  7,875  7,930 
Monthly  7,255  7,537  7,702  7,985  8,150 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks up 24.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month up 54.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 24.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 4 months up 29.3%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.1%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 21.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
33Pipe bottom
11Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Triangle, symmetrical
6Broadening top
6Triple bottom
5Pipe top
4Head-and-shoulders top
4Head-and-shoulders bottom
3Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Short ETFs
2. Short ETFs2. Healthcare Information
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. E-Commerce4. Internet
5. Shoe5. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/20/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 612 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
BBBYPipe top      07/02/201807/09/2018Retail (Special Lines)
BKHPipe top      07/02/201807/09/2018Electric Utility (West)
CALBroadening top      05/31/201807/19/2018Shoe
CRHTriangle, symmetrical      06/27/201807/18/2018Cement and Aggregates
ETFCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/06/201807/13/2018Securities Brokerage
FOETriple bottom      05/29/201807/16/2018Chemical (Specialty)
GESBroadening top      06/07/201807/17/2018Apparel
HLITTriangle, symmetrical      06/14/201807/19/2018Telecom. Equipment
HIGHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/05/201807/13/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
IBPTriple bottom      07/03/201807/17/2018Retail Building Supply
MGEEPipe top      07/02/201807/09/2018Electric Utility (Central)
MOSDiamond bottom      06/28/201807/19/2018Chemical (Diversified)
PCGPipe top      07/02/201807/09/2018Electric Utility (West)
PPGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/02/201807/16/2018Chemical (Diversified)
RMBSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/02/201807/13/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SCHWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/06/201807/13/2018Securities Brokerage
TGTTriangle, ascending      06/27/201807/18/2018Retail Store
VCBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/17/201807/19/2018Electronics
XELDiamond top      06/28/201807/19/2018Electric Utility (West)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/12/2018 and 07/19/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $19.23
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.93 or 8.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.32%
Volume: 3,628,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/09/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/12/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 10/11/2018.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 127 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $60.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.33 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.31%
Volume: 564,500 shares. 3 month avg: 512,838 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $36.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.30 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.69%
Volume: 379,400 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/31/2018 to 07/19/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $35.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.34 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.19%
Volume: 435,100 shares. 3 month avg: 546,094 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/27/2018 to 07/18/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $61.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.27 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.48%
Volume: 3,787,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,308,982 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/06/2018 to 07/13/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ferro Corp (FOE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $21.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.25 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.84%
Volume: 527,500 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 07/16/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 50 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $23.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25.06 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 39.22%
Volume: 535,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/07/2018 to 07/17/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $4.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.01 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.29%
Volume: 180,200 shares. 3 month avg: 585,235 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/14/2018 to 07/19/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $52.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.09 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.41%
Volume: 1,882,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,032,532 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/05/2018 to 07/13/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Installed Building Products Inc (IBP)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $59.35
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.75 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.86%
Volume: 260,600 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/03/2018 to 07/17/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/28/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/29/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 208 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $63.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.48 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.35%
Volume: 52,000 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Mosaic Co (MOS)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 163 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $28.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.76 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.90%
Volume: 3,525,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 06/28/2018 to 07/19/2018
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $42.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.68 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.73%
Volume: 5,583,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/09/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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PPG Industries Inc (PPG)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 419 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $106.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $99.87 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.93%
Volume: 2,543,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,342,054 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/16/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rambus Inc (RMBS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $13.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.52 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.31%
Volume: 772,400 shares. 3 month avg: 963,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/02/2018 to 07/13/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 394 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $52.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.47 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.94%
Volume: 6,194,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,527,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/06/2018 to 07/13/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $78.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.08 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.25%
Volume: 5,176,100 shares. 3 month avg: 6,916,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/27/2018 to 07/18/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Visteon Corp (VC)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $129.66
1 Month avg volatility: $3.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $138.46 or 6.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.61%
Volume: 303,400 shares. 3 month avg: 325,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/17/2018 to 07/19/2018
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 299 out of 605
7/19/18 close: $45.91
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.69 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.57%
Volume: 2,906,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,202,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/28/2018 to 07/19/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 7/19/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -0.68 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 653 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 371 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 282 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 148/268 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/91 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Today's chart looks a lot like the chart of the Dow two days ago.

This time, though, the rectangle top has a slight upward tilt to it. I suppose you can call it a channel, but it's flat enough for me. It doesn't matter much anyway.

The green pattern is called an ascending and inverted scallop. Price rises in an inverted fishing-hook shape. Price should rise after the end but it's struggling to do that as the chart shows.

I show two other scallops, in blue. These are wider than the green one. I found that when you see three progressively smaller scallops, like you see here, expect price to drop.

Oddly the reverse is also true: 3 scallops that get progressively wider. Both configurations are rare, though.

So maybe we'll see the index drop in the coming days.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,281.88    
 Monthly S1  7,568.16  286.28   
 Weekly S2  7,651.24  83.08   
 Monthly Pivot  7,705.84  54.60   
 Weekly S1  7,752.84  47.00   
 Weekly Pivot  7,798.18  45.34   
 Daily S2  7,806.07  7.89   
 Low  7,822.83  16.76   
 Daily S1  7,830.26  7.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,838.47  8.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,843.30  4.83   
 Daily Pivot  7,847.01  3.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,848.13  1.12   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,854.44  6.31   
 Open  7,859.43  4.99   
 High  7,863.77  4.34   
 Daily R1  7,871.20  7.43   
 Daily R2  7,887.95  16.76   
 Weekly R1  7,899.78  11.83   
 Weekly R2  7,945.12  45.34   
 Monthly R1  7,992.12  47.00   
 Monthly R2  8,129.80  137.68   

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