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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/20/2018
24,463 -201.95 -0.8%
10,579 -92.91 -0.9%
691 -5.96 -0.9%
7,146 -91.93 -1.3%
2,670 -22.99 -0.9%
YTD
-1.0%
-0.3%
-4.5%
3.5%
-0.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/13/2018
25,300 or 23,400 by 05/01/2018
10,800 or 9,800 by 05/01/2018
670 or 710 by 05/01/2018
7,400 or 6,800 by 05/01/2018
2,750 or 2,600 by 05/01/2018

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Monday 4/23/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's review the chart of the Dow industrials, which is on the daily scale.

A nicely defined head-and-shoulders top appears on the accompanying chart as LS (left shoulder), Head, and RS (right shoulder).

It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the down-sloping neckline. Since the neckline slopes downward, the index might never close below it, so I draw a horizontal neckline, which I show at B as a horizontal line.

As you can see, the index closes below it.

Recently, however, the index has formed a rising wedge (A).

The index followed two converging and rising trendlines at A. But it broke out downward, with a target of the bottom of the wedge. It might not get there, though. In this volatile market, the index will go wherever it wants. It does this in non-volatile markets, too, come to think of it.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 212.9 points.
Tuesday: Up 213.59 points.
Wednesday: Down 38.56 points.
Thursday: Down 83.18 points.
Friday: Down 201.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 102.8 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 39.48 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 13.84 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.1% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     4.8% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     6.4% down from the high of 7,637.27 on 03/13/2018.
     7.8% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     7.1% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     5.4% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/20/2018, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
4 bullish patterns,
241 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 18.2%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,202  24,333  24,505  24,636  24,808 
Weekly  24,082  24,272  24,566  24,756  25,050 
Monthly  22,593  23,528  24,279  25,214  25,966 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,642  2,656  2,675  2,689  2,708 
Weekly  2,626  2,648  2,683  2,705  2,740 
Monthly  2,454  2,562  2,662  2,770  2,870 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,065  7,105  7,164  7,205  7,264 
Weekly  6,990  7,068  7,194  7,272  7,398 
Monthly  6,447  6,797  7,155  7,505  7,864 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 32.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 32.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 34.4%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 47.4%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
24Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
18Pipe bottom
13Triangle, symmetrical
9Head-and-shoulders top
8Triple bottom
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Dead-cat bounce
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Broadening bottom
4Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Human Resources3. Human Resources
4. Internet4. Apparel
5. Apparel5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/20/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 617 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 9 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETDead-cat bounce      04/19/201804/19/2018Chemical (Diversified)
ALKPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Air Transport
AMWDHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/201804/16/2018Building Materials
AMATHead-and-shoulders top      01/25/201804/17/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ASNARectangle bottom      06/06/201704/19/2018Apparel
BRCRising wedge      03/29/201804/19/2018Chemical (Diversified)
CLSPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Electronics
CHDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/04/201804/18/2018Household Products
CLTriple top      03/29/201804/18/2018Household Products
CYHead-and-shoulders top      01/23/201804/13/2018Semiconductor
^DJIRising wedge      03/27/201804/17/2018None
FRDPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Building Materials
HUBGPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IVCBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/07/201804/19/2018Medical Supplies
LXUPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Building Materials
MUPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Semiconductor
PGTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/201804/18/2018Household Products
RLITriangle, symmetrical      01/24/201804/18/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ROGPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Electronics
SOTriangle, ascending      02/01/201804/16/2018Electric Utility (East)
TZOOPipe bottom      04/02/201804/09/2018Internet
IYKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/05/201804/17/2018Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/12/2018 and 04/19/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 608 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $2.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.90 or 46.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -74.25%
Volume: 7,402,800 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/19/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $65.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.16 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.87%
Volume: 1,434,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $89.95
1 Month avg volatility: $3.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.59 or 14.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.94%
Volume: 194,500 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/16/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $51.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.43 or 14.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.14%
Volume: 24,258,700 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/25/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $2.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.48 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.68%
Volume: 459,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/06/2017 to 04/19/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/05/2018.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Brady Corp (BRC)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 380 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $37.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.56 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.00%
Volume: 108,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Celestica Inc (CLS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $10.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.05 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.38%
Volume: 513,400 shares. 3 month avg: 557,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 326 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $48.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.47 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.89%
Volume: 3,158,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,023,622 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/04/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 454 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $69.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.22 or 5.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.53%
Volume: 5,536,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,441,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 278 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $16.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.18 or 10.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.46%
Volume: 7,269,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,847,760 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/23/2018 to 04/13/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/19/18 close: $24,664.89
1 Month avg volatility: $422.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25,607.16 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.22%
Volume: 381,114,900 shares. 3 month avg: 440,085,218 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/27/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $6.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.64 or 8.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.15%
Volume: 700 shares. 3 month avg: 27,460 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $44.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.14 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.72%
Volume: 149,800 shares. 3 month avg: 343,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $121.27
1 Month avg volatility: $3.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $113.15 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.47%
Volume: 743,800 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $18.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.58 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.57%
Volume: 168,300 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 02/07/2018 to 04/19/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $6.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.72 or 11.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.71%
Volume: 92,300 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Micron Technology (MU)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 89 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $51.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.05 or 10.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.05%
Volume: 52,502,300 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Procter and Gamble Co (PG)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $74.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.75 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.43%
Volume: 16,951,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/29/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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RLI Corp (RLI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $64.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.80 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.77%
Volume: 167,500 shares. 3 month avg: 149,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/24/2018 to 04/18/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $120.30
1 Month avg volatility: $4.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.02 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.70%
Volume: 74,500 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/28/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/30/2018 and a 38% chance by 08/29/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $45.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.58 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.18%
Volume: 4,297,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/01/2018 to 04/16/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 420 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $7.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.91 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.28%
Volume: 3,000 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/02/2018 to 04/09/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ US consumer goods (household goods) (IYK)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 609
4/19/18 close: $116.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $121.78 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.95%
Volume: 35,300 shares. 3 month avg: 39,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/05/2018 to 04/17/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Thursday 4/19/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 14.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 662 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 382 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 280 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 145/258 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

On this chart, the broadening top isn't that clear. I've drawn the red lines to highlight it.

Broadening tops are an unusual pattern. They form from the struggle between buying demand and selling pressure, just like other patterns. In this case, the swings from peak to valley widen over time, and yet they are bounded by two diverging trendlines.

Eventually, the index will breakout from the pattern and move off, perhaps starting to trend instead of moving sideways.

Something tells me that trend will be down (a guess), but we'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,414.85    
 Monthly S1  6,855.04  440.20   
 Weekly S2  6,902.61  47.57   
 Weekly S1  7,098.93  196.31   
 Weekly Pivot  7,141.27  42.35   
 Daily S2  7,231.89  90.62   
 Monthly Pivot  7,246.16  14.26   
 Low  7,259.90  13.74   
 Daily S1  7,263.57  3.67   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,282.70  19.13   
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,289.74  7.04   
 Daily Pivot  7,291.57  1.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  7,292.38  0.81   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  7,295.24  2.86   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,296.78  1.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  7,319.58  22.80   
 Daily R1  7,323.25  3.67   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  7,337.59  14.34   
 Daily R2  7,351.25  13.67   
 Weekly R2  7,379.93  28.68   
 Monthly R1  7,686.35  306.42   
 Monthly R2  8,077.47  391.11   

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