Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 08/03/2020
  Indus: 26,664 +236.08 +0.9%  
  Trans: 10,012 +16.91 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -8.43 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,903 +157.53 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 +23.49 +0.7%  
YTD
-6.6%  
-8.2%  
-6.5%  
 +21.5%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow10,600 or 9,400 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,355 or 3,100 by 08/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20
As of 08/03/2020
  Indus: 26,664 +236.08 +0.9%  
  Trans: 10,012 +16.91 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -8.43 -1.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,903 +157.53 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,295 +23.49 +0.7%  
YTD
-6.6%  
-8.2%  
-6.5%  
 +21.5%  
 +2.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow10,600 or 9,400 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,355 or 3,100 by 08/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20

 

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Tuesday 8/4/20. Slider Trading Quiz: Cypress Semiconductor

The index climbed by 0.9% or 236.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 515 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 300 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 215 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/362 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a slider trading quiz featuring Cypress Semiconductor stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,302.13    
 Monthly S1  25,483.26  1,181.14   
 Weekly S2  25,794.20  310.94   
 Weekly S1  26,229.30  435.10   
 Monthly Pivot  26,277.30  48.00   
 Weekly Pivot  26,427.38  150.08   
 Daily S2  26,462.47  35.09   
 Low  26,534.38  71.91   
 Open  26,542.32  7.94   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,563.43  21.11   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,600.42  36.99   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,620.82  20.40   
 Daily Pivot  26,635.35  14.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,641.22  5.87   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,664.40  23.18   
 High  26,707.26  42.86   
 Daily R1  26,736.31  29.05   
 Daily R2  26,808.23  71.91   
 Weekly R1  26,862.48  54.25   
 Weekly R2  27,060.56  198.08   
 Monthly R1  27,458.43  397.87   
 Monthly R2  28,252.47  794.03   

Monday 8/3/20. 2020 Market Forecast August Update

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for August, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 July 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+20.56%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+16.17%),
3. Communication services (+5.53%),
4. Health care (+3.40%),
5. Consumer staples (-0.77%),
6. Materials (-1.58%),
8. Utilities (-5.86%),
7. Real estate (-6.45%),
9. Industrials (-11.88%),
10. Financials (-21.97%),
11. and dead last is energy (-40.39%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+60.5%),
3. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+39.01%),
2. Software (+28.45%),
5. Metals & mining (+22.94%),
7. Life sciences tools & Services (+18.65%),
?. Air freight and logistics (17.86%)
8. Interactive media & Services (+14.51%),
6. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+12.59%),
13. Trading Companies & Distributors (+10.53%),
10. Specialty retail (+10.32%),

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/31/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 583 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADBETriangle, symmetrical      07/13/202007/30/2020Computer Software and Svcs
ANTMRectangle bottom      06/12/202007/28/2020Medical Services
CXHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/25/202007/24/2020Cement and Aggregates
CNPBroadening top      07/13/202007/30/2020Electric Utility (Central)
^DJUDiamond top      07/17/202007/29/2020None
FFGTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/202007/30/2020Insurance (Life)
GPROTriangle, symmetrical      06/08/202007/30/2020Electronics
JBLUTriangle, descending      05/29/202007/30/2020Air Transport
KLACBroadening top      07/06/202007/24/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LBFlag, high and tight      06/25/202007/30/2020Apparel
RAMPRising wedge      06/23/202007/24/2020Computer Software and Svcs
NJRTriangle, symmetrical      07/06/202007/30/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
OMCBroadening top      07/13/202007/28/2020Advertising
OMIFlag, high and tight      06/22/202007/30/2020Medical Supplies
PATKBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/16/202007/30/2020Retail Building Supply
SEICPipe top      07/13/202007/20/2020IT Services

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/23/2020 and 07/30/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $438.88
1 Month avg volatility: $12.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $401.94 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.07%
Volume: 1,438,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $277.19
1 Month avg volatility: $6.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $293.31 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.22%
Volume: 1,080,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/12/2020 to 07/28/2020
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 449 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $3.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.84 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.20%
Volume: 9,739,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 460 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $19.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.33 or 6.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.85%
Volume: 7,208,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
7/30/20 close: $828.13
1 Month avg volatility: $15.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $858.86 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.81%
Volume: 49,556,900 shares. 3 month avg: 62,233,735 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/17/2020 to 07/29/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $34.92
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.09 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.74%
Volume: 31,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $5.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.67 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.35%
Volume: 1,310,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 542 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $10.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.30 or 10.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.51%
Volume: 9,979,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/29/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 101 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $197.90
1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $210.77 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.07%
Volume: 1,162,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,563,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 168 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $24.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.44 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.43%
Volume: 10,518,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 136 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $45.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.78 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.28%
Volume: 409,200 shares. 3 month avg: 906,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/23/2020 to 07/24/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 444 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $31.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.15 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.59%
Volume: 359,300 shares. 3 month avg: 632,043 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $53.26
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.17 or 7.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -34.26%
Volume: 2,506,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/28/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $16.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.96 or 14.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 216.63%
Volume: 2,016,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/30/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 52 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $65.94
1 Month avg volatility: $3.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.15 or 14.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.77%
Volume: 378,000 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/16/2020 to 07/30/2020
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 578
7/30/20 close: $52.28
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.49 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.16%
Volume: 905,800 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/20/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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