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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
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Nasdaq (^IXIC):
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As of 07/25/2014
16,961 -123.23 -0.7%
8,428 -38.45 -0.5%
557 -4.06 -0.7%
4,450 -22.55 -0.5%
1,978 -9.64 -0.5%
YTD
2.3%
13.9%
13.4%
6.5%
7.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/15/2014
17,300 or 16,500 by 08/01/2014
8,700 or 8,150 by 08/15/2014
575 or 535 by 08/01/2014
4,500 or 4,250 by 08/01/2014
2,050 or 1,900 by 08/01/2014
Mutt Winners: None YTD

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

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Saturday 7/26/14. A Book Value Setup.

I was flipping through my book, Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading, when I came across this gem on page 35.

Pick stocks with the following attributes.

  • Select stocks priced below $16.
  • Book value per share should be below 1.0.
  • Book value per share this year should be lower than last year.
  • Select small cap stocks (less than $1 billion in market value).
  • Return on equity should be rising.

If you want more information, buy the book and read the chapter on book value. It might make you a lot of money. Or not.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Friday 7/25/10. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 40 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 605 stocks searched, or 6.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 27 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
MMMChannel      06/06/201407/24/2014Diversified Co.
ACETTriangle, symmetrical      05/16/201407/24/2014Chemical (Diversified)
AEPTriangle, symmetrical      07/01/201407/24/2014Electric Utility (Central)
ARRSPipe bottom      07/07/201407/14/2014Telecom. Equipment
BIIBBroadening top      05/30/201407/23/2014Biotechnology
BABroadening bottom      06/26/201407/24/2014Aerospace/Defense
BMYTriangle, symmetrical      05/30/201407/24/2014Drug
CALMChannel      05/21/201407/24/2014Food Processing
CEBroadening top      06/13/201407/21/2014Chemical (Basic)
CHSHead-and-shoulders top      06/10/201407/18/2014Apparel
CBTriangle, ascending      05/07/201407/24/2014Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EDTriangle, symmetrical      04/29/201407/24/2014Electric Utility (East)
CRHFalling wedge      06/25/201407/24/2014Cement and Aggregates
CROXTriangle, descending      06/09/201407/21/2014Shoe
CYBroadening wedge, descending      06/17/201407/22/2014Semiconductor
ELNKTriangle, ascending      04/21/201407/24/2014Internet
EMRTriangle, symmetrical      06/20/201407/24/2014Computers and Peripherals
EDEScallop, descending      07/01/201407/24/2014Electric Utility (Central)
HSICTriangle, symmetrical      07/07/201407/24/2014Medical Supplies
DHIHead-and-shoulders top      06/09/201407/23/2014Homebuilding
JCPRectangle top      05/22/201407/24/2014Retail Store
LTriangle, symmetrical      05/15/201407/24/2014Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MASDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/16/201407/23/2014Building Materials
MRKDiamond top      06/11/201407/24/2014Drug
MLHRTriangle, symmetrical      06/26/201407/24/2014Furn/Home Furnishings
MLIBroadening top      06/10/201407/22/2014Metal Fabricating
NFXPipe bottom      07/07/201407/14/2014Natural Gas (Diversified)
OTEXRectangle bottom      05/08/201407/24/2014E-Commerce
PREChannel      02/07/201407/24/2014Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PICOBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/05/201407/24/2014Insurance (Diversified)
QCOMBroadening top      06/06/201407/23/2014Telecom. Equipment
COLTriangle, ascending      04/17/201407/21/2014Aerospace/Defense
SWXRectangle bottom      05/15/201407/24/2014Natural Gas (Distributor)
TFXTriangle, symmetrical      06/30/201407/24/2014Diversified Co.
TSCOHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/27/201407/23/2014Retail Building Supply
UGIChannel      12/12/201307/24/2014Natural Gas (Distributor)
UNMChannel      06/05/201407/24/2014Insurance (Diversified)
WMBRectangle top      06/23/201407/24/2014Natural Gas (Distributor)
XELTriangle, symmetrical      06/30/201407/24/2014Electric Utility (West)
ECHTriangle, descending      04/29/201407/24/2014Investment Co. (Foreign)
EWMRectangle top      05/08/201407/24/2014Investment Co. (Foreign)
XLPDiamond top      06/02/201407/24/2014Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/17/2014 and 07/24/2014. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3M Company (MMM)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $145.13
1 Month average volatility: $1.23. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $142.00 or 2.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.48%
Volume: 2,580,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,038,918 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/06/2014 to 07/24/2014

Top

Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $17.90
1 Month average volatility: $0.40. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $16.96 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.43%
Volume: 115,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 380,203 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/16/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

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American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $54.01
1 Month average volatility: $0.67. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $52.39 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.55%
Volume: 2,192,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,821,706 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 58 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $33.77
1 Month average volatility: $0.75. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $31.99 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 38.74%
Volume: 1,613,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,459,778 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/07/2014 to 07/14/2014
Performance rank: 2 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $336.79
1 Month average volatility: $7.46. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $354.74 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.47%
Volume: 1,599,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,264,397 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Thursday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/30/2014 to 07/23/2014
Performance rank: 18 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 518 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $124.40
1 Month average volatility: $1.93. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $120.14 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.86%
Volume: 10,109,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 3,928,126 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/26/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 17 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 491 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $49.46
1 Month average volatility: $0.72. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $47.11 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.94%
Volume: 8,522,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 8,595,125 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/30/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $78.77
1 Month average volatility: $1.73. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $74.65 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.78%
Volume: 80,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 124,074 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/21/2014 to 07/24/2014

Top

Celanese Corp (CE)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $62.44
1 Month average volatility: $1.06. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $64.73 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.89%
Volume: 896,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,123,958 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/13/2014 to 07/21/2014
Performance rank: 18 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.

Top

Chicos FAS Inc. (CHS)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $16.29
1 Month average volatility: $0.28. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $16.94 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.54%
Volume: 1,325,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,405,925 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/10/2014 to 07/18/2014
Performance rank: 1 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Chubb Corp (CB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $92.76
1 Month average volatility: $0.71. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $91.31 or 1.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.00%
Volume: 1,074,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 992,754 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/07/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 17 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Con Edison, Inc (ED)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 253 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $57.31
1 Month average volatility: $0.63. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $55.77 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.67%
Volume: 843,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,070,517 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/29/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

CRH plc (CRH)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 486 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $24.74
1 Month average volatility: $0.27. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $24.02 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.17%
Volume: 1,125,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 192,645 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 06/25/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 20 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 70% of the time.

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CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $16.32
1 Month average volatility: $0.36. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $17.40 or 6.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.51%
Volume: 2,556,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,153,722 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/09/2014 to 07/21/2014
Performance rank: 10 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $10.55
1 Month average volatility: $0.30. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $9.90 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.48%
Volume: 2,406,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,410,468 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 06/17/2014 to 07/22/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Earthlink, Inc (ELNK)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $3.66
1 Month average volatility: $0.12. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $3.36 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.80%
Volume: 558,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 976,143 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/21/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 17 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $67.05
1 Month average volatility: $0.70. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $65.50 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.46%
Volume: 1,952,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,715,149 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/20/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Empire District (EDE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 153 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $25.50
1 Month average volatility: $0.30. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $26.11 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.38%
Volume: 112,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 191,806 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 07/01/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 15%.
Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 30% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $119.23
1 Month average volatility: $1.22. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $116.49 or 2.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.35%
Volume: 282,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 411,423 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/07/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $21.94
1 Month average volatility: $0.62. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $25.55 or 16.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.70%
Volume: 26,056,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,880,786 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/09/2014 to 07/23/2014
Performance rank: 1 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $9.06
1 Month average volatility: $0.25. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $8.28 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.98%
Volume: 16,420,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 17,033,075 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/22/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 463 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $43.85
1 Month average volatility: $0.43. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $42.93 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.10%
Volume: 911,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,166,794 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/15/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 478 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $20.60
1 Month average volatility: $0.39. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $21.93 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.53%
Volume: 5,425,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,498,057 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/16/2014 to 07/23/2014
Performance rank: 13 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 133 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $58.21
1 Month average volatility: $0.76. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $60.03 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.30%
Volume: 7,203,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 9,082,223 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/11/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 7 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Miller, Herman (MLHR)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $30.08
1 Month average volatility: $0.71. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $28.61 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.90%
Volume: 220,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 301,315 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/26/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $28.98
1 Month average volatility: $0.52. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $30.64 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -8.01%
Volume: 205,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 219,248 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/10/2014 to 07/22/2014
Performance rank: 18 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 4 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $44.98
1 Month average volatility: $0.99. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $42.86 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 82.62%
Volume: 894,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,465,240 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/07/2014 to 07/14/2014
Performance rank: 2 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 265 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $47.64
1 Month average volatility: $0.69. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $49.24 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.61%
Volume: 155,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 284,289 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/08/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.

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PartnerRe Ltd (PRE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $109.09
1 Month average volatility: $1.30. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $106.25 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.47%
Volume: 403,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 334,863 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 02/07/2014 to 07/24/2014

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PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $22.75
1 Month average volatility: $0.49. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $23.94 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.56%
Volume: 56,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 73,182 shares
Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)!
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/05/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 19 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 354 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $76.17
1 Month average volatility: $0.93. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $79.49 or 4.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 2.59%
Volume: 36,313,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 8,628,837 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/06/2014 to 07/23/2014
Performance rank: 18 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Rockwell Collins (COL)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $77.00
1 Month average volatility: $0.99. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $74.92 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.17%
Volume: 1,015,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 644,129 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/17/2014 to 07/21/2014
Performance rank: 17 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $51.50
1 Month average volatility: $0.65. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $53.32 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.89%
Volume: 159,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 191,806 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/15/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $106.36
1 Month average volatility: $1.27. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $103.45 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.32%
Volume: 153,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 182,483 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/30/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $65.11
1 Month average volatility: $1.13. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $61.08 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.07%
Volume: 4,156,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,387,900 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/27/2014 to 07/23/2014
Performance rank: 7 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $50.33
1 Month average volatility: $0.65. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $48.87 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.39%
Volume: 328,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 569,851 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Warning: the quarterly earnings announcement is due within the next 3 weeks (but verify to be sure), so consider avoiding a trade.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 12/12/2013 to 07/24/2014

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $35.11
1 Month average volatility: $0.42. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $33.97 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.09%
Volume: 991,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,327,895 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/05/2014 to 07/24/2014

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 10 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $58.57
1 Month average volatility: $0.79. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $56.44 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 51.85%
Volume: 3,345,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,963,254 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/23/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 155 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $31.74
1 Month average volatility: $0.33. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $30.81 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.60%
Volume: 1,719,200 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,527,489 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/30/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 16 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

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MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 351 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $45.50
1 Month average volatility: $0.56. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $46.64 or 2.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.23%
Volume: 179,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 194,366 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/29/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 10 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 54% of the time.

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MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $16.09
1 Month average volatility: $0.10. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $15.82 or 1.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.71%
Volume: 1,502,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,301,392 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/08/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 12 out of 23.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 243 out of 597
Close as of 07/24/2014: $44.97
1 Month average volatility: $0.27. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $45.59 or 1.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.63%
Volume: 3,449,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,706,558 shares
Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2014 to 07/24/2014
Performance rank: 7 out of 21.
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price meets the measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 7/24/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 17.68 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 531 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 339 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 192 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 65/112 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 25/50 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

Triple top ABC confirms (the index closes below the horizontal red line) and suggests the index is going to tumble. That it does.

The height of the triple top from highest peak to lowest valley between the three peaks subtracted from the breakout price (the red line) gives a target which the index hits easily enough. Then, about an hour later, a pullback occurs just before 2:00. After a pullback completes, there is a 47% chance that a stock will continue lower. However, that's on the daily charts and for stocks, not the index. But it gives a clue to direction for Thursday. Of course, other events will shape the opening.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,228.96    
 Weekly S2  4,326.27  97.31   
 Monthly S1  4,351.33  25.06   
 Weekly S1  4,399.99  48.66   
 Monthly Pivot  4,418.63  18.64   
 Weekly Pivot  4,425.95  7.32   
 Daily S2  4,448.00  22.05   
 Low  4,457.94  9.94   
 Daily S1  4,460.85  2.91   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,466.65  5.80   
 Open  4,468.16  1.51   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,469.33  1.17   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  4,470.79  1.46   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,472.02  1.23   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,473.70  1.68   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  4,480.73  7.03   
 Daily R1  4,483.64  2.91   
 Daily R2  4,493.58  9.94   
 Weekly R1  4,499.67  6.09   
 Weekly R2  4,525.63  25.97   
 Monthly R1  4,541.00  15.37   
 Monthly R2  4,608.30  67.30   

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.