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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 10/29/2014
16,974 -31.44 -0.2%
8,715 -44.34 -0.5%
584 -2.99 -0.5%
4,549 -15.06 -0.3%
1,982 -2.75 -0.1%
YTD
2.4%
17.8%
19.1%
8.9%
7.2%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 10/10/2014
17,100 or 16,350 by 11/15/2014
8,850 or 8,200 by 11/15/2014
600 or 560 by 11/15/2014
4,600 or 4,200 by 11/15/2014
2,000 or 1,900 by 11/15/2014

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

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Thursday 10/30/14. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -15.06 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 458 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 240 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 218 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 70/123 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 26/53 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Notice how the index has been trending higher following the blue trendline. That slope is what I like to see since it is not overheated (rising too fast) nor too slow (puts you to sleep while waiting to make money).

Today, the index cut through the trendline, suggesting a trend change. The signals for a trend change haven't occurred yet, though (see the link).

Look at the volatility shown in the red circle. That's when the FED announced the end of quantitative easing. The market seemed to be confused about whether that was a good idea or not.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,959.30    
 Weekly S2  4,189.86  230.57   
 Monthly S1  4,254.26  64.40   
 Weekly S1  4,369.55  115.28   
 Monthly Pivot  4,411.57  42.02   
 Weekly Pivot  4,427.90  16.34   
 Daily S2  4,496.14  68.24   
 Low  4,517.02  20.88   
 Daily S1  4,522.69  5.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,535.13  12.45   
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,540.73  5.60   
 Daily Pivot  4,543.56  2.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,546.33  2.76   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  4,549.23  2.90   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  4,551.37  2.14   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  4,564.44  13.07   
 Daily R1  4,570.11  5.67   
 Daily R2  4,590.98  20.88   
 Weekly R1  4,607.59  16.60   
 Weekly R2  4,665.94  58.36   
 Monthly R1  4,706.53  40.59   
 Monthly R2  4,863.84  157.30   

Wednesday 10/29/14. Market Direction: CPI

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is near 100, the highest it can go. That means it'll go down. I think it suggests the index is going to run into overhead resistance and drop.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

There's nothing on this picture that would indicate a weakening position in the indicator. It's bullish as the green lines show.

I will say that the October low turn was a good call.

Looking forward, I would expect to see neutral readings occur when the index's upward momentum slows. When the index rolls over, then I would expect to see red bars again. None of that has happened yet. However, the length of the straight line run suggests a turn is coming. So be prepared.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/28/14. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.1% or 12.53 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1255 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 643 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 612 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 82/130 or 63.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 22/40 or 55.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red chart pattern is an ascending triangle. Those breakout upward 70% of the time according to the statistics in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Notice how the index has flat lined, bumping up against overhead resistance. Now look at the two circles. These are areas where the index also moved horizontally. I'm thinking that they give a hint of what is to come. Neither circle showed the index remaining flat for the entire day, so the comparison isn't exact.

With earnings season in full swing, the breakout from the triangle can be in any direction, but if nothing else gets in the way, I am looking for an higher close tomorrow (Tuesday).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,227.55    
 Monthly S1  16,022.75  795.19   
 Weekly S2  16,078.89  56.15   
 Weekly S1  16,448.42  369.52   
 Weekly Pivot  16,630.06  181.65   
 Monthly Pivot  16,650.31  20.25   
 Daily S2  16,687.77  37.46   
 Low  16,729.83  42.06   
 Daily S1  16,752.85  23.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,770.76  17.91   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,783.40  12.64   
 Daily Pivot  16,794.92  11.51   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,796.05  1.13   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  16,796.10  0.05   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  16,817.94  21.84   
 High  16,836.98  19.04   
 Daily R1  16,860.00  23.02   
 Daily R2  16,902.07  42.06   
 Weekly R1  16,999.59  97.52   
 Weekly R2  17,181.23  181.65   
 Monthly R1  17,445.51  264.27   
 Monthly R2  18,073.07  627.57   

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.