As of 07/19/2019   Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%     Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%     Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%     Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%     S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%	YTD  +16.4%    +15.6%    +15.0%    +22.8%    +18.7%	Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019     26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019   10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019   850 or 800 by 08/01/2019   7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019   2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019
Chart pattern indicator: on 7/19/19

As of 07/19/2019   Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%     Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%     Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%     Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%     S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%	YTD  +16.4%    +15.6%    +15.0%    +22.8%    +18.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019     26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019   10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019   850 or 800 by 08/01/2019   7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019   2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019
Chart pattern indicator: on 7/19/19

Monday 7/22/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I recall drawing this chart before, with the top trendline bending over and the bottom one straight. What does it mean?

The price range (high to low) is narrowing. That means lower volatility. And I recall from playing with Bollinger bands that periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility. And vice versa.

So we're going to see a big move. When? Haven't a clue.

Notice that the top line is bending over. That means momentum is slowing. To me, that suggests a downward move and yet, Tom's Targets at the top of this page show the utilities as being the only upward move (of the indices I follow) expected going into the start of August.

Go figure. The passage of time changes my view.

It's possible we could see a big move upward. The index was upset today that the FED has signaled a smaller rate decrease than hoped. So maybe we'll see a recovery in the coming days and a push to new highs. So I'll leave my upward target intact.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/19/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz (7.0.0.14). It has important bug fixes and a number of enhancements.

I released performance statistics (an article) on extended V-tops.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/11/2019 and 07/18/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 377 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $12.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.55 or 44.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.94%

Volume: 3,142,800 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/18/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 524 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $23.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.32 or 12.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -11.93%

Volume: 10,696,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,976,214 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is downward 73% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 164 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $83.08

1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.94 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.22%

Volume: 3,649,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/17/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 443 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $16.51

1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.26 or 4.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.95%

Volume: 782,000 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 142 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $59.58

1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.29 or 4.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 43.32%

Volume: 3,725,500 shares. 3 month avg: 762,669 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 257 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $77.42

1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.27 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.34%

Volume: 3,089,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,422 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/24/2019 to 07/17/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 138 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $46.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.17 or 6.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 53.88%

Volume: 324,200 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 204 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $131.36

1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.75 or 4.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 19.09%

Volume: 804,400 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/30/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 351 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $89.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.15 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.04%

Volume: 1,911,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 5 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $62.18

1 Month avg volatility: $2.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.19 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 77.05%

Volume: 250,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/14/2019 to 07/12/2019

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 363 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $74.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.03 or 2.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 9.75%

Volume: 11,424,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,538,298 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 06/21/2019 to 07/12/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 237 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $44.03

1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.98 or 4.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.26%

Volume: 2,542,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/04/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 123 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $173.88

1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $178.41 or 2.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 31.61%

Volume: 4,128,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/15/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 580 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $6.98

1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.73 or 39.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -59.18%

Volume: 312,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/15/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 507 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $150.80

1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.53 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.73%

Volume: 84,500 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/13/2019 to 07/17/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 282 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $50.36

1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.14 or 4.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.27%

Volume: 309,500 shares. 3 month avg: 424,785 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 211 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $20.22

1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.01 or 6.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 33.47%

Volume: 182,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 480 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $20.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.17 or 6.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 11.09%

Volume: 5,624,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/12/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 566 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $29.37

1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.53 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -36.99%

Volume: 3,511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Channel from 06/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 567 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $39.34

1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.51 or 10.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -35.86%

Volume: 1,333,600 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/17/2019 to 07/17/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 67 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $18.51

1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.26 or 9.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 49.27%

Volume: 1,112,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/28/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 54 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $340.48

1 Month avg volatility: $5.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $321.12 or 5.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 31.72%

Volume: 169,100 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/17/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 396 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $48.85

1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.03 or 4.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 6.22%

Volume: 3,502,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 398 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $36.27

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.13 or 5.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.14%

Volume: 1,719,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/16/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 564 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $5.63

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.35 or 12.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -18.88%

Volume: 19,202,200 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 415 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $16.73

1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.69 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.49%

Volume: 68,100 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Channel from 05/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $10.93

1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.49 or 14.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 7.37%

Volume: 1,984,200 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 459 out of 587

7/18/19 close: $51.58

1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.45 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.32%

Volume: 1,270,500 shares. 3 month avg: 686,418 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2019 to 07/18/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Thursday 7/18/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

For the last two days the index has been dropping as the two red lines show. They form a chart pattern called a falling wedge.

Those breakout upward 68% of the time, according to the latest statistics.

Even if that's the case, it seems the market is headed lower. I wrote yesterday of bearish divergence in both charts. That's the first time I've seen it happen (to be fair, I wasn't always looking for divergence). The CPI has turned bearish, too, but that signal can disappear if the market advances strongly.

I've swapped direction on "Tom's Targets" at page top. I think we're in for a week of weakness. Maybe longer.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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