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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 09/24/2018
26,562 -181.45 -0.7%
11,370 -162.35 -1.4%
721 -6.64 -0.9%
7,993 6.29 0.1%
2,919 -10.30 -0.4%
YTD
7.5%
7.1%
-0.4%
15.8%
9.2%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 09/14/2018
27,000 or 26,100 by 10/01/2018
11,750 or 11,250 by 10/01/2018
755 or 720 by 10/01/2018
8,300 or 7,800 by 10/01/2018
2,975 or 2,890 by 10/15/2018

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

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Tuesday 9/25/18. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.7% or -181.45 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 573 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 281 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 292 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 172/286 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 34/68 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index showed a descending scallop chart pattern today.

There's not much of an upward hook on the end of the pattern, and I thought that suggested further deterioration in the index (re: it's going down). Now, I'm not so sure.

Plus, I've been wrong a lot recently, or think I have about my direction calls. So maybe the index will rise instead.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,036.79    
 Weekly S2  25,715.04  678.25   
 Monthly S1  25,799.42  84.38   
 Weekly S1  26,138.55  339.13   
 Monthly Pivot  26,284.29  145.74   
 Daily S2  26,445.63  161.34   
 Weekly Pivot  26,453.85  8.22   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  26,503.84  49.99   
 Low  26,548.68  44.84   
 Close  26,562.05  13.37   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  26,606.89  44.84   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,610.28  3.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,629.31  19.03   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,648.34  19.03   
 Daily R1  26,665.10  16.76   
 Open  26,705.25  40.15   
 High  26,709.94  4.69   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  26,768.15  58.21   
 Weekly R1  26,877.36  109.21   
 Monthly R1  27,046.92  169.56   
 Weekly R2  27,192.66  145.74   
 Monthly R2  27,531.79  339.13   

Monday 9/24/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

There's not much to see this week. The index has broken above the red trendline, which I arbitrarily drew along recent peaks.

The bottoms appear to be trending higher at a faster rate than the tops, at least for the majority of the time. I show that with the curved trendline.

Taken together, this looks like a rising wedge type behavior, even though the bottom of this example is curved instead of straight.

It suggests momentum is increasing. This upward trend can continue but it does favor a slowing of that momentum, meaning price will either move sideways or drop.

Unfortunately, I have no idea when that might happen. But it will happen.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 92.55 points.
Tuesday: Up 184.84 points.
Wednesday: Up 158.8 points.
Thursday: Up 251.22 points.
Friday: Up 86.52 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 588.83 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 23.08 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 24.69 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 26,769.16 on 09/21/2018.
     14.6% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 8,133.30 on 08/30/2018.
     20.5% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 2,940.91 on 09/21/2018.
     15.7% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/21/2018, the CPI had:

15 bearish patterns,
29 bullish patterns,
267 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 65.9%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,642  26,693  26,731  26,782  26,820 
Weekly  25,776  26,260  26,514  26,998  27,253 
Monthly  25,097  25,920  26,345  27,168  27,592 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,919  2,924  2,933  2,938  2,946 
Weekly  2,864  2,897  2,919  2,952  2,974 
Monthly  2,794  2,862  2,901  2,969  3,009 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,930  7,959  8,008  8,036  8,086 
Weekly  7,811  7,899  7,978  8,066  8,145 
Monthly  7,577  7,782  7,958  8,163  8,338 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 32.5%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 33.7%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 33.8%   The trend may continue. 
 6 months up 15.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 28.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 25.9%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
14Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
14Pipe bottom
12Head-and-shoulders top
10Double Top, Adam and Adam
8Head-and-shoulders bottom
7Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Pipe top
6Rising wedge
6Broadening top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Computers and Peripherals2. Short ETFs
3. Medical Services3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Short ETFs4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Medical Supplies5. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/21/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 607 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 10 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 8 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
COGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/07/201809/17/2018Natural Gas (Diversified)
CXPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Cement and Aggregates
CNPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/06/201809/14/2018Electric Utility (Central)
DOPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^DJUTriangle, symmetrical      08/01/201809/14/2018None
DTriangle, ascending      08/03/201809/18/2018Electric Utility (East)
DUKHead-and-shoulders top      08/17/201809/18/2018Electric Utility (East)
EGNPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Natural Gas (Diversified)
ESVPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EQTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/11/201809/18/2018Natural Gas (Diversified)
FMCPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Chemical (Basic)
FCXPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Metals and Mining (Div.)
GISTriple top      08/03/201809/17/2018Food Processing
IPGTriangle, symmetrical      06/29/201809/20/2018Advertising
IPITriple bottom      08/23/201809/14/2018Chemical (Diversified)
LENTriangle, symmetrical      08/09/201809/20/2018Homebuilding
MTriangle, descending      08/16/201809/19/2018Retail Store
MASTriangle, descending      07/25/201809/20/2018Building Materials
MURPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Petroleum (Integrated)
NEPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PATKBroadening top      08/27/201809/20/2018Retail Building Supply
PICOTriangle, ascending      08/09/201809/20/2018Diversified Co.
RLTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/201809/19/2018Apparel
SIGIBroadening top      08/22/201809/14/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SNPSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/27/201809/14/2018Computer Software and Svcs
TEVAPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Drug
RIGPipe bottom      09/04/201809/10/2018Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VLOHead-and-shoulders top      07/31/201809/14/2018Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/13/2018 and 09/20/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Cabot Oil and Gas A (COG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 462 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $22.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.38 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.93%
Volume: 7,179,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,196,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/07/2018 to 09/17/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $7.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.74 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.91%
Volume: 4,307,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $28.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.79 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.27%
Volume: 2,195,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/06/2018 to 09/14/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 192 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $18.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.15 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.97%
Volume: 1,124,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
9/20/18 close: $724.76
1 Month avg volatility: $7.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $699.70 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.19%
Volume: 56,381,800 shares. 3 month avg: 50,790,135 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/01/2018 to 09/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 339 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $70.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.42 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.25%
Volume: 5,143,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,422 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/03/2018 to 09/18/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 317 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $80.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.95 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.15%
Volume: 3,918,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 08/17/2018 to 09/18/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Energen Corp (EGN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 49 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $80.62
1 Month avg volatility: $1.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $76.53 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 40.04%
Volume: 1,162,000 shares. 3 month avg: 929,683 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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ENSCO International (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $7.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.09 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.51%
Volume: 11,120,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $48.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.38 or 6.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.81%
Volume: 1,982,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 09/11/2018 to 09/18/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $89.55
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.09 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.40%
Volume: 1,545,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,151,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 575 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $14.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.40 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.10%
Volume: 21,787,600 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 422 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $44.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.40 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.16%
Volume: 6,018,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 08/03/2018 to 09/17/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $22.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.80 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.45%
Volume: 2,784,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/29/2018 to 09/20/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $3.62
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.30 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.95%
Volume: 794,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/23/2018 to 09/14/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/02/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/01/2018 and a 38% chance by 01/31/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Lennar Corp. Cl A (LEN)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $50.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.15 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.80%
Volume: 4,529,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,465,638 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/09/2018 to 09/20/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $35.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.61 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 39.66%
Volume: 6,660,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/16/2018 to 09/19/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $38.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $40.37 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.13%
Volume: 1,913,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,351,771 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/25/2018 to 09/20/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 101 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $31.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.28 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.03%
Volume: 697,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 16 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $6.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.88 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 46.29%
Volume: 6,964,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $64.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.09 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.85%
Volume: 272,200 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/27/2018 to 09/20/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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PICO Holdings (PICO)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 240 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $12.40
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.73 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.13%
Volume: 61,600 shares. 3 month avg: 140,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/09/2018 to 09/20/2018
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 106 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $136.12
1 Month avg volatility: $2.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $129.52 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.28%
Volume: 767,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/31/2018 to 09/19/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 329 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $64.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.29 or 3.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.54%
Volume: 129,100 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 08/22/2018 to 09/14/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $99.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $102.74 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.06%
Volume: 1,237,000 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 08/27/2018 to 09/14/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $24.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.98 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.82%
Volume: 9,168,500 shares. 3 month avg: 26,334,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 78 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $12.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.85 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.49%
Volume: 20,765,600 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/04/2018 to 09/10/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 175 out of 600
9/20/18 close: $110.48
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $116.55 or 5.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.20%
Volume: 3,110,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/31/2018 to 09/14/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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