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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
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Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/23/2014
16,502 -12.72 -0.1%
7,742 7.36 0.1%
543 0.33 0.1%
4,127 -34.49 -0.8%
1,875 -4.16 -0.2%
YTD
-0.5%
4.6%
10.7%
-1.2%
1.5%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/11/2014
16,600 or 15,900 by 05/01/2014
7,775 or 7,525 by 05/15/2014
560 or 530 by 05/01/2014
4,250 or 3,900 by 05/01/2014
1,900 or 1,800 by 05/01/2014
Mutt Winners: None YTD

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

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Thursday 4/24/14. Trading Thursday: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -34.49 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 226 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 110 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 116 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 59/100 or 59.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 24/48 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale from Tuesday's and Wednesday's trading.

This is a wonderful example of a descending triangle.

The breakout from this chart pattern is downward but the drop doesn't last long. That's expected since stocks often pull back to the breakout price or triangle trendline, as in this case (A). The index has dropped from then and that's expected, too. This maneuver suggests the index will continue lower tomorrow (Thursday).

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  3,740.77    
 Weekly S2  3,896.72  155.95   
 Monthly S1  3,933.87  37.15   
 Weekly S1  4,011.85  77.98   
 Weekly Pivot  4,061.15  49.31   
 Daily S2  4,101.91  40.76   
 Daily S1  4,114.44  12.53   
 Low  4,125.41  10.97   
 Close  4,126.97  1.56   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  4,137.94  10.97   
 Monthly Pivot  4,139.13  1.19   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  4,139.17  0.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  4,143.42  4.25   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  4,147.68  4.25   
 Daily R1  4,150.47  2.79   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  4,160.90  10.43   
 High  4,161.44  0.54   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  4,173.97  12.53   
 Weekly R1  4,176.28  2.31   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  4,225.58  49.31   
 Monthly R1  4,332.23  106.65   
 Monthly R2  4,537.49  205.26   

Wednesday 4/23/14. What's Hot Wednesday

The following are taken from my database of about 560 stocks and 100 exchange traded funds (ETFs), not from the entire stock market.

Stocks and ETFs with the least amount of noise (low noise means it trends up, down, or both rather than moving sideways) make for better swing trading candidates. ETFs, on average, have lower noise levels than stocks, but that could be due to lots of gaps (which I consider bad). Click here for more information on noise.

Biggest winners and losers over the past week, from the close on 04/15/2014 to 04/22/2014 and year to date. These lists are useful for momentum players, those that buy stocks moving up or trending lower. Also, look for several stocks from the same industry. Finding some may give a clue to an industry on the move, one either trending up or suffering. The lists also include country ETFs. If those are performing well, consider diversifying into them.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past month.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
9.5%$24.49-38.59%Best Buy Co. (BBY)Retail (Special Lines)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
14.3%$2.12-69.76%Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN)BiotechnologyDead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014
14.3%$29.4315.19%CRH plc (CRH)Cement and AggregatesScallop, ascending and inverted from 08/28/2013 to 10/09/2013
19.0%$131.971.49%Praxair Inc. (PX)Chemical (Diversified)Triple top from 11/18/2013 to 12/02/2013
19.0%$24.01-14.34%Harsco Corp (HSC)Diversified Co.Pipe top from 07/29/2013 to 08/05/2013
19.0%$17.6913.91%Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)Insurance (Life)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
19.0%$21.2319.14%Corning Inc. (GLW)Telecom. EquipmentBroadening top, right-angled and ascending from 02/13/2014 to 03/27/2014
19.0%$26.58-14.06%Brady Corp (BRC)Chemical (Diversified)Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 03/13/2014 to 04/07/2014
19.0%$86.200.30%Apache Corp. (APA)Petroleum (Producing)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014
23.8%$66.679.23%Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)Chemical (Basic)Scallop, ascending and inverted from 02/05/2014 to 03/27/2014

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Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
27.4%$2.12-69.76%Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN)BiotechnologyDead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014
29.0%$29.4315.19%CRH plc (CRH)Cement and AggregatesScallop, ascending and inverted from 08/28/2013 to 10/09/2013
29.0%$31.27-7.21%ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG)Food ProcessingDouble Top, Eve and Adam from 07/18/2013 to 08/05/2013
30.6%$39.2322.44%Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)Electric Utility (East)Pipe bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/10/2014
30.6%$84.10-18.37%NetSuite Inc (N)E-CommerceBroadening top from 09/23/2013 to 10/29/2013
30.6%$112.432.27%Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentBroadening top, right-angled and ascending from 09/24/2013 to 10/17/2013
32.3%$39.47-1.47%WGL Holdings (WGL)Natural Gas (Distributor)Triangle, symmetrical from 03/04/2014 to 04/03/2014
32.3%$14.3979.65%Pioneer Energy Services (PES)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentTriangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013
32.3%$47.55-6.91%Mens Warehouse (MW)Retail (Special Lines)Rectangle top from 11/27/2013 to 01/16/2014
32.3%$86.14-10.77%Dover Corp (DOV)MachineryDouble Top, Eve and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014

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Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
32.3%$27.073.84%International Rectifier Corp (IRF)SemiconductorBroadening top from 03/03/2014 to 04/10/2014
33.1%$40.068.98%Textron Inc (TXT)Diversified Co.Double Top, Eve and Eve from 03/07/2014 to 04/04/2014
33.9%$422.339.96%Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)Medical SuppliesPipe top from 10/07/2013 to 10/14/2013
34.7%$79.67-3.24%Home Depot, Inc (HD)Retail Building SupplyDouble Top, Adam and Eve from 11/19/2013 to 01/02/2014
34.7%$138.89-0.97%3M Company (MMM)Diversified Co.Channel from 04/11/2013 to 11/13/2013
35.5%$68.30-8.08%Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)BiotechnologyPipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
35.5%$14.3979.65%Pioneer Energy Services (PES)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentTriangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013
35.5%$9.01-7.87%Infinera Corp. (INFN)Telecom. EquipmentDouble Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/20/2014
35.5%$26.58-5.17%General Electric Co (GE)Diversified Co.Head-and-shoulders bottom from 01/24/2014 to 02/21/2014
35.5%$48.9410.23%Dow Chemical (DOW)Chemical (Basic)Broadening wedge, descending from 05/22/2013 to 07/11/2013

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Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past month.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
4.8%$18.0315.65%MSCI Italy Index (EWI)Investment Co. (Foreign)Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014
14.3%$51.708.48%MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)Long ETFsTriangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014
14.3%$13.542.81%MSCI Singapore Index (EWS)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013
14.3%$26.709.56%MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014
19.0%$123.786.60%SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Metals and Mining (Div.)Head-and-shoulders top from 07/23/2013 to 09/19/2013
19.0%$40.7910.09%PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)BiotechnologyPipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
19.0%$234.723.37%Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB)BiotechnologyPipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
19.0%$41.647.96%MSCI Spain Index (EWP)Investment Co. (Foreign)Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011
19.0%$63.85-1.27%MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013
19.0%$17.557.08%MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014

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Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
17.7%$17.557.08%MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014
19.4%$63.85-1.27%MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013
21.0%$13.542.81%MSCI Singapore Index (EWS)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013
21.8%$55.06-0.46%Market Vectors Money-Center (RKH)Long ETFsRising wedge from 09/19/2013 to 12/04/2013
22.6%$20.061.26%MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO)Investment Co. (Foreign)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014
22.6%$26.709.56%MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014
24.2%$51.708.48%MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)Long ETFsTriangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014
24.2%$34.715.21%MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL)Investment Co. (Foreign)Roof from 02/14/2014 to 03/20/2014
25.8%$16.65-17.78%UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)Short ETFsPipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014
25.8%$123.786.60%SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Metals and Mining (Div.)Head-and-shoulders top from 07/23/2013 to 09/19/2013

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Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.

Average
Noise
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
18.8%$55.06-0.46%Market Vectors Money-Center (RKH)Long ETFsRising wedge from 09/19/2013 to 12/04/2013
25.0%$51.708.48%MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)Long ETFsTriangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014
25.0%$26.709.56%MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014
25.4%$16.65-17.78%UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)Short ETFsPipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014
26.6%$36.311.34%MSCI Sweden Index (EWD)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/22/2014
26.6%$63.85-1.27%MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triple top from 05/09/2013 to 06/03/2013
27.4%$41.647.96%MSCI Spain Index (EWP)Investment Co. (Foreign)Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011
27.4%$17.557.08%MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)Investment Co. (Foreign)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014
28.2%$13.542.81%MSCI Singapore Index (EWS)Investment Co. (Foreign)Triangle, symmetrical from 12/14/2012 to 02/08/2013
28.2%$20.061.26%MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO)Investment Co. (Foreign)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014

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Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance during the past week out of 506 stocks. Stocks from this list may suggest what stocks or industries will do well in the future.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
41.82%$9.8042.24%Cbeyond, Inc. (CBEY)Telecom. EquipmentRectangle top from 12/23/2013 to 01/23/2014
28.05%$163.6547.33%Allergan, Inc (AGN)BiotechnologyRectangle top from 07/15/2013 to 08/08/2013
21.91%$2.12-69.76%Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN)BiotechnologyDead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014
18.84%$20.0653.72%SunEdison (SUNE)SemiconductorDouble Top, Eve and Eve from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014
18.39%$13.5224.61%Arrowhead Research Corp (ARWR)BiotechnologyTriangle, symmetrical from 03/31/2014 to 04/09/2014
18.09%$26.1820.37%Micron Technology (MU)SemiconductorTriangle, ascending from 01/14/2014 to 02/05/2014
14.43%$49.32-2.59%Incyte Corp. (INCY)DrugPipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014
13.46%$4.3011.11%Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)SemiconductorRectangle top from 02/11/2014 to 03/06/2014
12.92%$147.9833.81%Illumina Inc (ILMN)BiotechnologyPipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014
12.85%$24.33-0.04%Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)Securities BrokerageChannel from 08/30/2013 to 11/07/2013

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Below are the 10 worst performing stocks during the past week out of 506 stocks. Stocks from this list suggest companies or industries that may be having difficulty and might be future short sale candidates.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDStockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
-9.54%$41.5216.89%Lexmark International Inc. (LXK)Computers and PeripheralsPipe bottom from 12/09/2013 to 12/16/2013
-9.30%$17.56-17.64%Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)InternetScallop, descending from 01/23/2014 to 02/19/2014
-6.81%$22.99-14.88%ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)Telecom. EquipmentBroadening top from 12/02/2013 to 01/22/2014
-6.06%$241.76-8.05%Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)Information ServicesDouble Top, Eve and Adam from 01/03/2014 to 01/23/2014
-5.75%$15.4224.96%Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC)Metals and Mining (Div.)Pipe top from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014
-3.69%$30.28-22.62%Rackspace Hosting (RAX)E-CommerceDouble Top, Eve and Eve from 09/19/2013 to 10/29/2013
-3.38%$7.15-2.05%Universal American Financial Corp (UAM)Insurance (Life)Pipe top from 03/03/2014 to 03/03/2014
-3.15%$3.07-0.32%Hecla Mining Co. (HL)Metals and Mining (Div.)Triangle, descending from 02/19/2014 to 03/21/2014
-3.14%$3.08-43.28%Cache (CACH)ApparelPipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014
-2.57%$36.05-12.38%Network Appliance (NTAP)Computers and PeripheralsHead-and-shoulders top from 12/20/2013 to 01/09/2014

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Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance year to date out of 506 stocks. Knowing which securities are trending higher makes selecting stocks for momentum trades much easier, especially if some share the same industry.

YTD
Change
Last
Close
StockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
87.80%$39.40Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)BiotechnologyFlag, high and tight from 12/30/2013 to 02/21/2014
79.65%$14.39Pioneer Energy Services (PES)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentTriangle, descending from 05/01/2013 to 06/27/2013
58.01%$11.93Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)Retail (Special Lines)Pipe bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014
54.07%$7.95RF Micro Devices Inc. (RFMD)SemiconductorDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam from 01/10/2014 to 01/24/2014
53.72%$20.06SunEdison (SUNE)SemiconductorDouble Top, Eve and Eve from 03/06/2014 to 03/20/2014
48.50%$25.23Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentBroadening bottom from 06/03/2013 to 06/20/2013
47.33%$163.65Allergan, Inc (AGN)BiotechnologyRectangle top from 07/15/2013 to 08/08/2013
42.24%$9.80Cbeyond, Inc. (CBEY)Telecom. EquipmentRectangle top from 12/23/2013 to 01/23/2014
38.48%$33.83Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentRectangle top from 02/26/2014 to 04/10/2014
34.71%$113.26Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)Petroleum (Producing)Diamond top from 01/21/2014 to 02/10/2014

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Below are the 10 worst performing stocks year to date out of 506 stocks. These stocks might represent a good momentum trade from the short side. If some stocks also share the same industry, then the industry may be weak, so concentrate your search there.

YTD
Change
Last
Close
StockIndustryMost Recent Chart Pattern
-69.76%$2.12Prana Biotechnology Limited (PRAN)BiotechnologyDead-cat bounce from 04/01/2014 to 04/01/2014
-45.98%$1.95Forest Oil Corp (FST)Petroleum (Producing)Dead-cat bounce from 02/26/2014 to 02/26/2014
-43.28%$3.08Cache (CACH)ApparelPipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014
-41.63%$5.30Vivus Inc (VVUS)BiotechnologyPipe bottom from 11/04/2013 to 11/11/2013
-40.30%$46.98Conns Inc (CONN)Retail (Special Lines)Pipe bottom from 03/10/2014 to 03/17/2014
-38.59%$24.49Best Buy Co. (BBY)Retail (Special Lines)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
-36.94%$8.81hhgregg, Inc (HGG)Retail (Special Lines)Head-and-shoulders top from 08/26/2013 to 10/24/2013
-35.99%$88.47Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)Household ProductsTriangle, descending from 01/16/2014 to 03/20/2014
-31.76%$4.45Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO)Petroleum (Producing)Pipe bottom from 12/09/2013 to 12/16/2013
-30.97%$4.57Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)HomebuildingFalling wedge from 06/24/2013 to 11/27/2013

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Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance this past week out of 95 ETFs. A hot ETF may suggest an industry or commodity that is doing well, so look there for individual stock picks or just trade the ETF for a momentum play.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDFundMost Recent Chart Pattern
7.86%$234.723.37%Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (IBB)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
6.79%$89.531.14%Market Vectors Biotech (BBH)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
6.35%$57.587.67%PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals (PJP)Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 08/15/2013 to 10/24/2013
6.22%$128.799.05%DJ US Pharmaceuticals index fund (IHE)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 06/06/2013 to 07/03/2013
6.00%$40.7910.09%PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
5.91%$98.79-0.81%Nasdaq 100 long 2x Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD)Broadening wedge, descending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014
5.86%$37.76-2.28%DJ US Broker-dealers index fund (IAI)Broadening wedge, descending from 09/24/2013 to 10/09/2013
5.65%$59.2611.58%Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 05/15/2013 to 05/30/2013
4.40%$18.0315.65%MSCI Italy Index (EWI)Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014
4.13%$31.49-0.85%MSCI Germany Index (EWG)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014

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Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs over the past week out of 95 ETFs. These funds may represent companies or industries that are suffering. Avoid going long in those stocks or buying any stocks from those industries.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDFundMost Recent Chart Pattern
-5.67%$58.23-2.89%Nasdaq 100 short 2x ProShares (QID)Broadening wedge, ascending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014
-5.45%$16.65-17.78%UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014
-5.06%$43.00-12.62%UltraShort 2x Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG)Triple bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/11/2014
-4.39%$31.14-9.03%UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/27/2014
-3.88%$28.00-5.60%S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 03/18/2013 to 04/18/2013
-3.86%$19.90-8.04%UltraShort 2x Technology ProShares (REW)Pipe top from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
-3.33%$16.70-4.11%UltraShort 2x Financials ProShares (SKF)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 10/05/2012 to 11/02/2012
-3.20%$26.88-1.97%DJIA short 2x ProShares (DXD)Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 07/03/2013 to 10/09/2013
-2.91%$18.01-1.31%Nasdaq 100 short 1x ProShares (PSQ)Broadening wedge, ascending from 03/06/2014 to 04/03/2014
-2.27%$17.22-20.24%UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 08/19/2013 to 09/03/2013

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Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance year to date out of 95 ETFs. Concentrate your individual stock picks from industries that are doing well, or trade the ETF for a momentum play.

YTD
Change
Last
Close
FundMost Recent Chart Pattern
27.60%$26.40United States Natural Gas (UNG)Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/24/2014 to 04/01/2014
19.59%$29.00PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/21/2014 to 04/02/2014
15.65%$18.03MSCI Italy Index (EWI)Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014
13.09%$84.50iShares Cohen and Steers Realty Majors (ICF)Triangle, descending from 12/04/2013 to 01/02/2014
11.58%$59.26Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)Broadening top, right-angled and ascending from 05/15/2013 to 05/30/2013
11.43%$42.31SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)Rising wedge from 02/21/2014 to 04/03/2014
10.72%$76.01MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012
10.68%$106.05DJ US Utilities sector index fund (IDU)Rising wedge from 02/24/2014 to 04/03/2014
10.09%$40.79PowerShares Dynamic Biotech and Genome (PBE)Pipe bottom from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
10.00%$79.98iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX)Broadening top from 05/29/2013 to 06/24/2013

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Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs year to date out of 95 ETFs. These represent the stocks or industries you will want to avoid buying or want to concentrate selling short.

YTD
Change
Last
Close
FundMost Recent Chart Pattern
-20.24%$17.22UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 08/19/2013 to 09/03/2013
-17.78%$16.65UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)Pipe bottom from 01/13/2014 to 01/21/2014
-12.62%$43.00UltraShort 2x Oil and Gas ProShares (DUG)Triple bottom from 02/24/2014 to 03/11/2014
-9.03%$31.14UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 03/13/2014 to 03/27/2014
-8.56%$11.10MSCI Japan Index fund (EWJ)Rectangle top from 09/09/2013 to 01/30/2014
-8.04%$19.90UltraShort 2x Technology ProShares (REW)Pipe top from 01/27/2014 to 02/03/2014
-7.71%$35.41FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index fund (FXI)Pipe bottom from 03/10/2014 to 03/17/2014
-6.24%$63.76MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt idx (EWW)Double Bottom, Adam and Adam from 03/03/2014 to 03/14/2014
-5.60%$28.00S and P short 2x ProShares (SDS)Broadening top, right-angled and descending from 03/18/2013 to 04/18/2013
-4.51%$23.70DJ US Home construction index fund (ITB)Pipe top from 02/24/2014 to 03/03/2014

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Below is a list of market index performance over the past week.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDIndexMost Recent Chart Pattern
3.59%7,734.904.52%DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)Broadening wedge, descending from 03/07/2014 to 03/31/2014
3.16%4,161.46-0.36%Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)Broadening wedge, descending from 03/06/2014 to 04/02/2014
1.98%1,879.551.69%S and P 500 (^GSPC)Head-and-shoulders top from 11/18/2013 to 12/09/2013
1.55%16,514.37-0.38%DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)Broadening top from 03/03/2014 to 04/14/2014
-0.34%542.8210.65%DJ 15 Utilities (^DJU)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 12/02/2013 to 01/03/2014

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Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance this past week out of 26 ETFs. These may highlight emerging markets that are ready to soar.

Week
Change
Last
Close
YTDFundMost Recent Chart Pattern
4.40%$18.0315.65%MSCI Italy Index (EWI)Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014
4.13%$31.49-0.85%MSCI Germany Index (EWG)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/15/2014
3.58%$76.0110.72%MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012
2.63%$47.155.53%MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ)Scallop, ascending from 09/20/2013 to 10/16/2013
2.56%$41.647.96%MSCI Spain Index (EWP)Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011
2.56%$20.061.26%MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Index (EWO)Head-and-shoulders bottom from 03/03/2014 to 03/24/2014
2.53%$21.060.86%MSCI United Kingdom Index (EWU)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 12/31/2013 to 01/22/2014
2.51%$17.557.08%MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014
2.46%$26.709.56%MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014
2.44%$29.784.67%MSCI France Index (EWQ)Broadening top from 11/06/2013 to 12/31/2013

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Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance year to date out of 26 ETFs. Finding several countries from a similar region that is performing well helps identify which international mutual fund or ETF may continue to do well in the future.

YTD
Change
Last
Close
FundMost Recent Chart Pattern
15.65%$18.03MSCI Italy Index (EWI)Rising wedge from 01/15/2014 to 03/13/2014
10.72%$76.01MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index (THD)Head-and-shoulders top from 09/14/2012 to 10/18/2012
9.56%$26.70MSCI Australia Index fund (EWA)Double Bottom, Adam and Eve from 12/18/2013 to 02/03/2014
8.82%$52.69MSCI Israel Cap Invest Mt Index (EIS)Double Top, Adam and Adam from 10/11/2013 to 10/22/2013
8.48%$51.70MSCI Turkey Index (TUR)Triangle, symmetrical from 02/03/2014 to 03/13/2014
7.96%$41.64MSCI Spain Index (EWP)Pipe bottom from 09/12/2011 to 09/19/2011
7.08%$17.55MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK)Double Top, Adam and Eve from 12/31/2013 to 01/23/2014
6.74%$49.88MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index fund (EPP)Broadening top from 07/17/2013 to 09/11/2013
5.53%$47.15MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ)Scallop, ascending from 09/20/2013 to 10/16/2013
5.21%$34.71MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL)Roof from 02/14/2014 to 03/20/2014

 

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/22/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

The index climbed by 0.2% or 40.71 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1228 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 669 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 559 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 70/107 or 65.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 20/37 or 54.1% of the time.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's and Monday's trading.

A broadening top chart pattern appears at C. This one was special since it highlighted the breakout direction: up. At A, a partial decline appears that suggests an upward breakout. Unfortunately, the chart pattern hasn't staged a breakout yet since it hasn't close above the top or below the bottom of the chart pattern. Plus the upward move came today (Monday) and not Friday when the chart pattern appeared.

Today, a symmetrical triangle appears at B. Price did close above the top of the chart pattern, staging an upward breakout. Then price threw back to the triangle's apex, D, and has started moving up. This suggests the upward move will continue, at least in the morning. World events over night could change that, of course. And so could daytime events. Sigh. Did you know that a day without sunshine is like night?

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2014 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,749.09    
 Weekly S2  15,880.48  131.39   
 Monthly S1  16,099.17  218.69   
 Weekly S1  16,164.86  65.69   
 Weekly Pivot  16,312.68  147.81   
 Monthly Pivot  16,365.40  52.72   
 Daily S2  16,379.34  13.94   
 Low  16,402.08  22.74   
 Open  16,408.92  6.84   
 Daily S1  16,414.29  5.37   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,424.12  9.83   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,430.93  6.81   
 Daily Pivot  16,437.04  6.11   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,437.74  0.70   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,449.25  11.51   
 High  16,459.78  10.53   
 Daily R1  16,471.99  12.21   
 Daily R2  16,494.74  22.74   
 Weekly R1  16,597.06  102.33   
 Monthly R1  16,715.48  118.42   
 Weekly R2  16,744.88  29.40   
 Monthly R2  16,981.71  236.83   

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.