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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 05/28/2015
18,126 -36.87 -0.2%
8,367 -76.90 -0.9%
588 1.54 0.3%
5,098 -8.61 -0.2%
2,121 -2.69 -0.1%
YTD
1.7%
-8.5%
-4.9%
7.6%
3.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 05/14/2015
18,600 or 17,700 by 06/01/2015
9,000 or 8,200 by 06/01/2015
610 or 565 by 06/01/2015
5,200 or 4,825 by 06/01/2015
2,150 or 2,050 by 06/01/2015
Mutt Losers: None YTD

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Friday 5/29/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 589 stocks searched, or 4.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

The following tips may help.

  • Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
  • Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
  • Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
  • Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.

More...

Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APDTriangle, ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Chemical (Diversified)
AMWDChannel      03/25/201505/28/2015Building Materials
AWIDiamond top      04/06/201505/22/2015Building Materials
BKHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/14/201505/26/2015Electric Utility (West)
CNLRectangle top      02/05/201505/28/2015Electric Utility (Central)
CNAChannel      04/09/201505/28/2015Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMIHead-and-shoulders top      05/04/201505/22/2015Machinery
WIRETriangle, descending      04/24/201505/28/2015Metals and Mining (Div.)
FASTTriangle, ascending      02/19/201505/28/2015Retail Building Supply
HWChannel      01/02/201505/28/2015Building Materials
HSICRectangle top      02/17/201505/28/2015Medical Supplies
KLACRectangle bottom      04/10/201505/28/2015Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/201505/26/2015Metal Fabricating
NETriangle, symmetrical      04/15/201505/28/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNChannel      03/23/201505/28/2015Retail Store
PHMBroadening bottom      04/30/201505/27/2015Homebuilding
RDCDiamond top      05/06/201505/27/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SAIABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SLBTriangle, symmetrical      04/30/201505/27/2015Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SHLMChannel      04/28/201505/28/2015Chemical (Specialty)
SONSTriangle, descending      04/23/201505/28/2015Telecom. Equipment
TEVATriangle, descending      04/30/201505/28/2015Drug
UILBroadening wedge, descending      03/31/201505/28/2015Electric Utility (East)
VRSNTriangle, ascending      05/04/201505/28/2015Internet
WERNTriangle, descending      05/05/201505/28/2015Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IYCRectangle top      02/20/201505/28/2015Retail Store
PPHRising wedge      03/23/201505/28/2015Drug
DBARectangle bottom      03/13/201505/26/2015Investment Co. (Domestic)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/21/2015 and 05/28/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $148.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $141.65 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.75%
Volume: 521,300 shares. 3 month avg: 982,860 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 45 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $50.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.62 or 8.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.54%
Volume: 139,500 shares. 3 month avg: 149,240 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/25/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 143 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $55.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.25 or 4.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.53%
Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 632,232 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/06/2015 to 05/22/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

Black Hills Corp (BKH)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 489 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $48.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.03 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -8.86%
Volume: 440,100 shares. 3 month avg: 209,955 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/14/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Cleco Corp (CNL)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $54.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.74 or 1.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.07%
Volume: 101,800 shares. 3 month avg: 351,871 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/05/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $38.79
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.66 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.21%
Volume: 39,100 shares. 3 month avg: 115,311 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/09/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $139.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $143.87 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.41%
Volume: 1,163,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,579,558 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/22/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Top

Encore Wire Corp (WIRE)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 79 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $44.40
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.97 or 5.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.94%
Volume: 56,600 shares. 3 month avg: 118,934 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/24/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $42.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.12 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.53%
Volume: 1,486,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,271,060 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/19/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Headwaters Inc. (HW)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 22 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $19.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.09 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.08%
Volume: 323,700 shares. 3 month avg: 608,369 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 01/02/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $142.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $137.86 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.78%
Volume: 364,900 shares. 3 month avg: 729,837 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 481 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $60.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.74 or 4.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.29%
Volume: 936,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,370,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 04/10/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Top

Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 269 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $23.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.65 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.84%
Volume: 17,700 shares. 3 month avg: 16,437 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $17.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.36 or 10.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.38%
Volume: 6,508,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,150,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/15/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $73.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.01 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.26%
Volume: 1,217,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,194,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 03/23/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 473 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $19.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.46 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.46%
Volume: 5,140,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,472,618 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Top

Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $21.83
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.07 or 10.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.39%
Volume: 4,957,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,475,703 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/06/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Top

SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $41.49
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.94 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.05%
Volume: 229,800 shares. 3 month avg: 313,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Top

Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 375 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $90.65
1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.24 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.14%
Volume: 4,399,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,753,791 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/27/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Top

Schulman, A. (SHLM)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $43.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.62 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.91%
Volume: 65,000 shares. 3 month avg: 173,028 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/28/2015 to 05/28/2015

Top

Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $7.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.33 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -60.40%
Volume: 552,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,549,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/23/2015 to 05/28/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/24/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/23/2015 and a 38% chance by 09/22/2015.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 196 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $60.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.57 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.79%
Volume: 3,641,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,680,029 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/30/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

UIL Holdings Corp (UIL)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 36 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $50.96
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.74 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.04%
Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 465,382 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 03/31/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Top

Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $63.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.82 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.68%
Volume: 1,001,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,033,623 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/04/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Top

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 450 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $27.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.26 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.18%
Volume: 483,200 shares. 3 month avg: 733,065 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/05/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Top

DJ US consumer svcs index fnd (retail) (IYC)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $144.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $142.05 or 1.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.15%
Volume: 18,500 shares. 3 month avg: 67,665 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Top

Market Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $73.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.77 or 1.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.45%
Volume: 94,700 shares. 3 month avg: 85,003 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 03/23/2015 to 05/28/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Top

PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Industry: Investment Co. (Domestic)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 581
5/28/15 close: $21.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.37 or 1.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.69%
Volume: 364,100 shares. 3 month avg: 370,803 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 03/13/2015 to 05/26/2015
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Thursday 5/28/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.5% or 73.84 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 98 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 58 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 40 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 59.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 87/144 or 60.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 29/61 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing I noticed was the tall move from A to B, shown in the chart.

To me, this just begs to retrace. The 5100 area is a resistance level so even though we are above that now, it's still close enough to see resistance

Thus, I expect the index to close lower on Thursday. Alternatively, the index could move sideways for a time, regrouping for a new push higher.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,806.54    
 Monthly S1  4,956.56  150.03   
 Daily S2  5,013.66  57.10   
 Weekly S2  5,016.36  2.69   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  5,038.20  21.84   
 Low  5,039.37  1.17   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  5,047.86  8.49   
 Daily S1  5,060.13  12.27   
 Weekly S1  5,061.47  1.35   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,066.94  5.47   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,075.46  8.52   
 Weekly Pivot  5,082.66  7.20   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,083.97  1.31   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  5,085.83  1.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  5,106.59  20.76   
 High  5,111.54  4.95   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  5,127.77  16.23   
 Daily R1  5,132.30  4.52   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,148.96  16.66   
 Daily R2  5,158.00  9.05   
 Monthly R1  5,188.22  30.22   
 Monthly R2  5,269.86  81.63   

Wednesday 5/27/15. Chart Pattern Indicator:Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

It's hard to tell from this picture but the chart pattern indicator has turned bearish.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red lines show the bearish signals.

The indicator turned bearish three trading days ago, but that is probably deceptive. My guess is the signal turned bearish today and carried back to the prior two days. That's possible since signals can appear or disappear for up to a week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.