As of 03/27/2020   Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%     Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%     Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%     S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%	YTD -24.2%   -29.4%   -13.7%   -16.4%   -21.3%	Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020     19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020   6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020   600 or 800 by 04/15/2020   7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020   2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 3/27/20

As of 03/27/2020   Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%     Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%     Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%     Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%     S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%	YTD -24.2%   -29.4%   -13.7%   -16.4%   -21.3%
Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020     19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020   6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020   600 or 800 by 04/15/2020   7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020   2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 3/27/20

Monday 3/30/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

You see a nice sustainable uptrend until the market learns of Covid-19. Then down she goes. However, the index didn't drop as far as I expected it to.

I think the index (or the markets, really) will follow the red line. If I'm right, the markets will struggle to move higher and drop (A) to form a second bottom (B).

As the indices approach the level of the prior bottom (mid March), everyone will jump in and buy, sending the indices back up. So have your buy orders in place, ready to trigger automatically, placed above the price of the prior low.

Of course, the AB move might not happen. The index could continue down or resume the upward move.

I listened to the Starbucks CEO say that their stores in China were closed, but 7 weeks later, most of them (96%) are back open now.

That means America will be shut down to at least June if we follow the same schedule.

Meanwhile, the chart pattern indicator has turned bearish again, reversing the bullish signal which appeared 5 days ago. The reading (33%) is slightly below the bearish 35% minimum, so it's close and a large gain will erase it. So we'll have to see what happens.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/27/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Be careful trading high and tight flags. You'll see a lot of them this week. If they behave like they did after the 2007-2009 bear market, they'll have a high failure rate and those that make money, won't make a lot of it. But, maybe it's different this time...

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 43 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 7.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (24) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/19/2020 and 03/26/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 133 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $7.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.42 or 28.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.06%

Volume: 3,058,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 431 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $85.64

1 Month avg volatility: $7.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.70 or 24.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -37.94%

Volume: 482,200 shares. 3 month avg: 670,414 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 156 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $201.34

1 Month avg volatility: $14.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $161.32 or 19.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.32%

Volume: 1,512,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,051,743 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 241 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $20.61

1 Month avg volatility: $2.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.41 or 35.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.14%

Volume: 1,144,000 shares. 3 month avg: 625,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 321 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $93.29

1 Month avg volatility: $7.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.99 or 19.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.06%

Volume: 9,459,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 467 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $52.75

1 Month avg volatility: $7.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.04 or 29.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -49.53%

Volume: 205,900 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 509 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $21.59

1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.55 or 32.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.57%

Volume: 298,700 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 202 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $83.47

1 Month avg volatility: $6.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.21 or 21.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.17%

Volume: 310,600 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 575 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $1.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.74 or 56.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -77.82%

Volume: 548,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/24/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 425 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $51.48

1 Month avg volatility: $3.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.20 or 23.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -32.73%

Volume: 717,600 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 440 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $29.08

1 Month avg volatility: $2.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.49 or 29.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.68%

Volume: 1,101,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 551 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $6.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.42 or 34.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.83%

Volume: 92,600 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 546 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $180.55

1 Month avg volatility: $19.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.51 or 29.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.58%

Volume: 63,172,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 583 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $6.09

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.56 or 41.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -74.36%

Volume: 968,400 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/14/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/15/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/14/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 587 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $5.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.30 or 37.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -57.30%

Volume: 753,200 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 443 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $6.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.68 or 44.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.62%

Volume: 14,299,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 430 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $18.43

1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.55 or 31.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.00%

Volume: 2,284,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 347 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $57.73

1 Month avg volatility: $4.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.89 or 22.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.45%

Volume: 3,211,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 357 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $48.80

1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.67 or 22.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -36.01%

Volume: 6,629,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 364 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $36.59

1 Month avg volatility: $3.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.17 or 23.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -19.74%

Volume: 6,792,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 185 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $8.12

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.04 or 25.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -27.24%

Volume: 123,153,400 shares. 3 month avg: 74,714,158 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 565 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $7.57

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.38 or 42.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -67.10%

Volume: 953,100 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 214 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $53.56

1 Month avg volatility: $4.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.91 or 23.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -19.72%

Volume: 10,243,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,211,905 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 212 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $132.45

1 Month avg volatility: $9.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.12 or 19.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -9.89%

Volume: 1,440,300 shares. 3 month avg: 973,146 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 515 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $10.35

1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.21 or 49.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -50.41%

Volume: 305,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 117 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $6.80

1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.21 or 38.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.61%

Volume: 427,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 263 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $16.34

1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.12 or 38.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.30%

Volume: 3,951,600 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 477 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $19.08

1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.28 or 30.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.32%

Volume: 4,865,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 451 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $51.63

1 Month avg volatility: $6.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.17 or 29.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -42.16%

Volume: 1,467,600 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 366 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $30.31

1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.91 or 27.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.37%

Volume: 1,405,400 shares. 3 month avg: 981,391 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 562 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $2.24

1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.71 or 23.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -46.67%

Volume: 146,600 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/16/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/29/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/28/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 513 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $20.02

1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.18 or 34.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -49.12%

Volume: 504,500 shares. 3 month avg: 256,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 226 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $91.94

1 Month avg volatility: $5.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.55 or 14.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.96%

Volume: 12,537,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 581 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $6.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.37 or 45.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -75.00%

Volume: 12,830,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 547 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $12.79

1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.47 or 33.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -52.31%

Volume: 3,398,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 337 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $31.78

1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.59 or 38.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.39%

Volume: 479,500 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 289 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $79.34

1 Month avg volatility: $6.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.10 or 24.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.78%

Volume: 1,217,500 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 484 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $18.89

1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.64 or 27.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -48.65%

Volume: 1,156,200 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 468 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $54.65

1 Month avg volatility: $4.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.41 or 22.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -41.70%

Volume: 5,747,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,669,805 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 218 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $123.60

1 Month avg volatility: $9.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.59 or 26.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.41%

Volume: 2,017,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,356,452 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 470 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $15.16

1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.51 or 30.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.79%

Volume: 6,986,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 238 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $289.99

1 Month avg volatility: $22.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $233.54 or 19.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.97%

Volume: 366,600 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 447 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $48.09

1 Month avg volatility: $6.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.28 or 32.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.76%

Volume: 2,449,300 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 589 out of 590

3/26/20 close: $1.71

1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.81 or 52.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -72.20%

Volume: 4,297,900 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Thursday Addendum

Just a quick note. After I posted to my blog Wednesday night, I had a thought. Next month, companies will begin reporting quarterly earnings.

What do you think the results will be? The likely-poor numbers will rattle the markets, but they are already down 25% year-to-date, so maybe the earnings results are already factored in.

If not, then perhaps the results will be the catalyst to send the markets back down to their recent lows.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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