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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Picture of Bumper.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Picture of the head's law.
Kindle
Paperback
Nook
Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/21/2017
23,591 160.50 0.7%
9,615 92.77 1.0%
758 2.01 0.3%
6,862 71.77 1.1%
2,599 16.89 0.7%
YTD
19.4%
6.3%
14.9%
27.5%
16.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2017
23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Thursday 11/22/17. 10-Year Forecast

Before I discuss the forecast, let me mention a few things.

I'll resume blogging on Monday evening. No, I'm not going anywhere. I just want to savor the holiday without having to worry about updating the website. I'll have to do some of that anyway (for the statistics), but not blogging saves time.

I'll be at home, working on building a jewelry box for my mom. I built a prototype and am refining it for the new version. She'll be 90 in three years, so I thought it would make a nice gift. I'll be delivering it as soon as I'm finished with it (taking advantage of the warm weather that's predicted: 70s) because she might not be alive in 3 years.

Although I can't recall her wearing or owning any jewelry, my dad was a carpenter/cabinet maker so she'll appreciate the woodworking. Well, that's the plan. I'll have to take out a mortgage to afford the shipping charges when I send it to her, so that's a bummer.

Chart Patterns: After the Buy

Speaking of money, with the holidays coming, remember to shop Amazon.com through my website. Just click on a picture of one of my books, like this one, pictured on the right.

It'll take you to Amazon.com with my referral code. When you buy anything during your visit, I receive a small referral fee which I use to support this website. You'll find the book pictures (links to Amazon) on the far left of each web page. All of my books are displayed there. Click one of the images. You'll be taken to Amazon where you can search for anything you wish (you don't have to buy the book. The link is an easy way to send the referral code to Amazon).

Bored? Read a book. If you want an entertaining good versus evil thriller, read Head's Law.

Need to check to see if you're still alive? For a book with an emotional ending, read, Bumper's Story

I wrote both books. See if I'm as good in writing fiction as I am in writing non-fiction.

Weekly Forecast

Picture of the weekly forecast

Now let's talk about the forecast. First, I show the weekly forecast for the next few years (as much as can fit on the chart).

It shows that the 2017 prediction of dropping prices after the October peak hasn't happened...yet. There's still time. Maybe we'll see that if or when the tax bill fails to pass congress.

The Dow is supposed to drop going into 2018 and then climb in the spring to a lower peak before heading down to the 2019 low. The predicted low is 16,440 as shown on the chart. From the current close of 23,500, that's a drop of 30%, which means a bear market is coming (any drop over 20% qualifies).

After the index bottoms in March 2019, the index begins a recovery. But for how long? The next chart shows the answer.

Monthly Forecast

Picture of the monthly forecast

This is the monthly forecast of the Dow industrials, looking ahead 10 years.

Notice that this predicted close is lower than that shown on the weekly chart. I've checked over the weekly code (software) I use to create the chart and believe it to be correct. I haven't looked into why the two lows are different. My guess is that on the weekly chart, a week's worth of prices might be missing (think 9-11 when the markets were closed for about a week. Rhetorical question: How do you adjust the prediction when the average has a missing value?).

Assuming it's correct, the chart shows the same dip going into 2019 followed by a recovery. There's another drop in 2021 but the Dow moves to new highs going forward. In 2026, the index reaches a high of almost 31,500.

You can refer to prior predictions to see how they turned out. Most of the time, they are off. Last year was the exception because it was almost dead on.

The links on that page also describe how this prediction isn't guesswork. It's all done using easy math.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 11/22/17. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Over the past two weeks or so, the indicator flipped to bearish (red vertical bar) and now it's bullish (green vertical bar). The thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart shows the indicator moving higher, probably hitting the ceiling now.

That's all good until you realize there's nowhere to go but down (for the CPI, that is).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 14% on 12/09/2016.
And the most was 29% on 08/21/2017.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 496 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 9% on 12/09/2016.
And the bottom was 16% on 08/21/2017.

The red line, the more sensitive of the two, made a nice recovery over the past two weeks. It probably bottomed last week and moved up since then.

The blue line is unchanged from a week ago, according to the above numbers. But it sure looks like it rebounded.

The charts, taken together, suggest a continued move higher in the markets. That differs from the 1-year prediction which suggested we'd be headed toward a bear market by now. Go figure.

My guess is the hope for a corporate tax break is still powering the market higher.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/21/17. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.3% or 72.09 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1078 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 597 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 481 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 151/254 or 59.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

An ascending and inverted scallop appears, shown here outlined in red. It's nicely shaped, if I may say so without being accused of any sexual impropriety.

Those types of scallops breakout upward, by definition. Otherwise, they'd be a rounded turn or just squiggles on the chart.

It's interesting how today's (Monday's) movement mirrors the scallop on Thursday. The Thursday pattern gapped up, so it's not an exact match. We'll see if Tuesday's trading takes price down a smidgen before a rebound.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,549.94    
 Monthly S1  22,990.13  440.20   
 Weekly S2  23,138.98  148.85   
 Weekly S1  23,284.66  145.67   
 Monthly Pivot  23,296.13  11.47   
 Daily S2  23,319.63  23.50   
 Low  23,360.58  40.95   
 Open  23,370.71  10.13   
 Daily S1  23,374.98  4.27   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  23,388.42  13.44   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,397.37  8.94   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,408.73  11.36   
 Daily Pivot  23,415.93  7.20   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,420.09  4.16   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  23,430.33  10.24   
 High  23,456.88  26.55   
 Daily R1  23,471.28  14.40   
 Daily R2  23,512.23  40.95   
 Weekly R1  23,534.10  21.87   
 Weekly R2  23,637.86  103.77   
 Monthly R1  23,736.32  98.46   
 Monthly R2  24,042.32  305.99   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.