|
Written and copyright © 2013 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Tuesday 12/10/13. Trading Tuesday: Dow
The index climbed by 0.0% or 5.33 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1192 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.6% on 632 occasions.
Average loss was -0.7% on 560 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 62/94 or 66.0% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 19/31 or 61.3% of the time.
Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.
I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Monday's trading.
This was a sloppy, directionless day. The index formed a symmetrical triangle at A. The triangle staged a downward breakout at D but the decline didn't last long.
The index waffled up and down, eventually forming double top BC which had a downward breakout at E. Again, the drop didn't amount to much.
In short, this was a trendless day better spent getting exercise by shoveling snow off the driveway than playing the markets.
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2013 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 15,255.08 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 15,640.30 | 385.23 |
|
| Weekly S2 | 15,664.90 | 24.59 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 15,845.21 | 180.32 |
|
| Monthly Pivot | 15,907.41 | 62.19 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 15,971.61 | 64.20 |
|
| Daily S2 | 15,989.96 | 18.36 |
|
| Daily S1 | 16,007.75 | 17.78 |
|
| Low | 16,015.29 | 7.54 |
|
| Open | 16,019.49 | 4.20 |
Yes! The Open is close to the Low. |
| Close | 16,025.53 | 6.04 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 16,031.76 | 6.23 |
|
| Daily Pivot | 16,033.07 | 1.32 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 16,036.84 | 3.77 |
Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 16,041.93 | 5.09 |
|
| Daily R1 | 16,050.86 | 8.92 |
|
| High | 16,058.40 | 7.54 |
|
| Daily R2 | 16,076.18 | 17.78 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 16,151.92 | 75.74 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 16,278.32 | 126.39 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 16,292.63 | 14.32 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 16,559.74 | 267.10 |
|
Monday 12/9/13. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
My Prediction
I show the S & P 500 index on the daily scale.
This is the rising wedge I remarked on in a previous post. The index touches or is near each trendline several times, making for a nice looking wedge.
The wedge broke out downward and curled around to A. That's a pullback. I'm hoping that price will continue moving higher. In studies I have
done of pullbacks in stocks, the continue rising 53% of the time (47% drop).
Will that be the case? I think so, but that's just a guess. I've been bullish for years now and the market has rewarded me for that beief.
A Brief Look Back
The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Down 77.64 points.
Tuesday: Down 94.15 points.
Wednesday: Down 24.85 points.
Thursday: Down 68.26 points.
Friday: Up 198.69 points.
For the Week...
The Dow industrials were down 66.21 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 2.63 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 0.72 points or 0.0%.
Year to Date...
Dow Industrials
1.0% down from the high of 16,174.51 on 11/29/2013.
22.3% up from the low of 13,104.30 on 01/02/2013.
Nasdaq
0.2% down from the high of 4,069.86 on 12/06/2013.
32.0% up from the low of 3,076.60 on 01/08/2013.
S&P 500
0.5% down from the high of 1,813.55 on 11/29/2013.
26.6% up from the low of 1,426.19 on 01/02/2013.
Economic Reports
The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.
| Report | Time | A-F
Rating | Description |
| Wholesale inventories | 10:00 T | D- | Wholesale sales and inventory statistics. |
| Crude inventories | 10:30 W | ? | My guess: Measures oil inventory. |
| Treasury budget | 2:00 W | D | Tracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing). |
| Initial jobless claims | 8:30 Th | C+ | Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. |
| Retail sales | 8:30 Th | A- | Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending? |
| International trade | 8:30 Th | C+ | Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others. |
| Business inventories | 10:00 Th | C- | Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories. |
| Producer price index | 8:30 F | B- | Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation. |
Options Expiration
No options expire this week.
Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
As of 12/06/2013, the CPI had:
10 bearish patterns,
16 bullish patterns,
203 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 61.5%, which is
neutral (between 35% and 65%).
The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 1 of 3 full triangles showing ( ). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.
Swing Traders: Pivot Points
The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a
two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.
| Index | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
| Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily | 15,759 | 15,890 | 15,956 | 16,087 | 16,153 |
| Weekly | 15,663 | 15,842 | 15,970 | 16,148 | 16,277 |
| Monthly | 15,253 | 15,637 | 15,906 | 16,289 | 16,558 |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC): Daily | 1,782 | 1,794 | 1,800 | 1,811 | 1,818 |
| Weekly | 1,767 | 1,786 | 1,798 | 1,817 | 1,829 |
| Monthly | 1,721 | 1,763 | 1,788 | 1,830 | 1,856 |
| Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily | 4,031 | 4,047 | 4,058 | 4,074 | 4,086 |
| Weekly | 3,981 | 4,022 | 4,046 | 4,087 | 4,111 |
| Monthly | 3,781 | 3,922 | 3,996 | 4,137 | 4,211 |
- Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
- S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
- If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
- In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
- A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
- The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
- Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
- Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
- Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.
Here are the formulas:
Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price
Consecutive Price Trends
| Index | Consecutive
Closes So Far | % | Comments |
| Dow industrials (^DJI) | 1 week down | 29.1% |
The trend may continue. |
| | 1 month down | 19.9% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| S & P 500 (^GSPC) | 1 week down | 27.5% |
The trend may continue. |
| | 1 month down | 20.8% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) | 4 weeks up | 17.2% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
| | 4 months up | 20.5% |
Expect a reversal soon. |
How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.
Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.
The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.
Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA
This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly.
See 12-Month Moving Average for more details. Dow Industrials: bullish.
Nasdaq Composite: bullish.
S&P 500 Index: bullish.
Dow Transports: bullish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.
Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries
Earnings season is over.
Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).
| Found | Chart Pattern Name |
| 20 | Triangle, symmetrical |
| 12 | Channel |
| 10 | Pipe bottom |
| 9 | Head-and-shoulders top |
| 7 | Rising wedge |
| 7 | Diamond top |
| 7 | Triangle, ascending |
| 5 | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam |
| 5 | Pennant |
| 5 | Broadening top |
Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example).
However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).
The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.
The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.
| This Week | Last Week |
| 1. Shoe | 1. Internet |
| 2. Internet | 2. Shoe |
| 3. Air Transport | 3. Air Transport |
| 4. Computer Software and Svcs | 4. Aerospace/Defense |
| 5. Insurance (Life) | 5. Human Resources |
| |
| 50. Electric Utility (West) | 50. Toiletries/Cosmetics |
| 51. Cement and Aggregates | 51. Electric Utility (West) |
| 52. Toiletries/Cosmetics | 52. Cement and Aggregates |
| 53. Homebuilding | 53. Homebuilding |
| 54. Short ETFs | 54. Short ETFs |
|
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 12/6/13. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table. The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 616 stocks searched, or 4.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
| Symbol | Chart Pattern | Bullish
Bearish | Start | End | Industry | | ABC | Channel | | 08/28/2013 | 12/03/2013 | Biotechnology |
| AXS | Double Top, Adam and Adam | | 11/14/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Insurance (Prop/Casualty) |
| CHD | Triangle, symmetrical | | 11/15/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Household Products |
| DD | Triangle, symmetrical | | 10/25/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Chemical (Basic) |
| BOOM | Triangle, symmetrical | | 11/13/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Metal Fabricating |
| ETFC | Rising wedge | | 10/18/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Securities Brokerage |
| EMC | Triangle, symmetrical | | 10/22/2013 | 12/04/2013 | Computers and Peripherals |
| FAST | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending | | 11/11/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Retail Building Supply |
| GSOL | Triangle, symmetrical | | 10/21/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Advertising |
| KMB | Head-and-shoulders top | | 11/06/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Household Products |
| MRO | Broadening wedge, ascending | | 10/09/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| MDVN | Diamond top | | 10/25/2013 | 12/02/2013 | Biotechnology |
| MWW | Pipe top | | 11/18/2013 | 11/25/2013 | Advertising |
| PX | Triple top | | 11/18/2013 | 12/02/2013 | Chemical (Diversified) |
| ROK | Channel | | 10/02/2013 | 12/02/2013 | Diversified Co. |
| ^GSPC | Rising wedge | | 09/19/2013 | 11/29/2013 | None |
| SIAL | Rising wedge | | 10/30/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Chemical (Diversified) |
| TFX | Channel | | 08/15/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Diversified Co. |
| TSCO | Triangle, symmetrical | | 10/25/2013 | 12/03/2013 | Retail Building Supply |
| USG | Double Top, Adam and Adam | | 11/18/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Building Materials |
| WAT | Triangle, descending | | 10/22/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Precision Instrument |
| WSO | Double Top, Eve and Eve | | 10/30/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Retail Building Supply |
| WLK | Channel | | 05/07/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Chemical (Basic) |
| RKH | Rising wedge | | 09/19/2013 | 12/04/2013 | Long ETFs |
| EWM | Triangle, symmetrical | | 09/30/2013 | 12/05/2013 | Investment Co. (Foreign) |
| EWL | Triangle, symmetrical | | 10/25/2013 | 12/02/2013 | Investment Co. (Foreign) |
| XLB | Triangle, symmetrical | | 11/18/2013 | 11/29/2013 | Building Materials |
| SMN | Triangle, symmetrical | | 11/15/2013 | 12/02/2013 | Short ETFs |
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/28/2013 and 12/05/2013. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
AmerisourceBergen Corp (ABC)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $69.14
1 Month average volatility: $0.86. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $67.15 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 60.12%
Volume: 2,130,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,357,912 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 08/28/2013 to 12/03/2013
Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $47.41
1 Month average volatility: $0.62. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $49.25 or 3.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 36.86%
Volume: 1,249,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 745,835 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/14/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 8%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 72% of the time.
Church and Dwight Co Inc (CHD)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $65.70
1 Month average volatility: $0.80. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $63.54 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.64%
Volume: 411,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 713,371 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/15/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dupont (DD)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $60.11
1 Month average volatility: $0.70. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $58.58 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.64%
Volume: 2,525,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 4,064,485 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/25/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 73 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $21.92
1 Month average volatility: $0.59. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $20.57 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 57.70%
Volume: 27,500 shares
3 month avg volume: 45,957 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/13/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
E-Trade Financial Corp (ETFC)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 14 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $18.03
1 Month average volatility: $0.37. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $18.86 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 101.45%
Volume: 1,775,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 3,510,252 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/18/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
EMC Corporation (EMC)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $23.90
1 Month average volatility: $0.32. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $23.13 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.53%
Volume: 22,411,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 20,459,614 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/22/2013 to 12/04/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Fastenal Company (FAST)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $46.57
1 Month average volatility: $0.93. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $48.80 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -0.17%
Volume: 1,147,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,922,838 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 11/11/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 19 out of 21. Breakout is downward 66% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 20%. Pullbacks occur 65% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 32% of the time.
Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $7.46
1 Month average volatility: $0.23. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $6.93 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.12%
Volume: 18,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 32,580 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/21/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 344 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $103.90
1 Month average volatility: $1.34. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $106.97 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.06%
Volume: 2,074,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,756,498 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/06/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 1 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 22%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Pullbacks occur 50% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 55% of the time.
Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 388 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $36.31
1 Month average volatility: $0.73. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $38.18 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.43%
Volume: 6,858,800 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,552,145 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 10/09/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 14 out of 21. Breakout is downward 73% of the time. Average decline: 17%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 58% of the time.
Medivation Inc (MDVN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 109 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $61.29
1 Month average volatility: $2.32. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $67.23 or 9.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.80%
Volume: 787,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,318,106 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/25/2013 to 12/02/2013
Performance rank: 7 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 76% of the time.
Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $5.28
1 Month average volatility: $0.20. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $5.71 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -6.05%
Volume: 2,564,900 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,528,942 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/18/2013 to 11/25/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 70% of the time.
Praxair Inc. (PX)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 392 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $122.49
1 Month average volatility: $1.42. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $126.39 or 3.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.91%
Volume: 1,217,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 923,022 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 11/18/2013 to 12/02/2013
Performance rank: 7 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 40% of the time.
Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 113 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $109.21
1 Month average volatility: $1.75. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $104.99 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.03%
Volume: 624,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 723,371 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 10/02/2013 to 12/02/2013
S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
Close as of 12/05/2013: $1,785.03
1 Month average volatility: $12.68. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $1,818.17 or 1.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 25.16%
Volume: 556,844,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 513,030,600 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/19/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Sigma-Aldrich Corp (SIAL)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 403 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $87.70
1 Month average volatility: $0.98. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $89.83 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.19%
Volume: 558,400 shares
3 month avg volume: 585,666 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 10/30/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $96.39
1 Month average volatility: $1.30. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $93.16 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.17%
Volume: 154,200 shares
3 month avg volume: 254,417 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 08/15/2013 to 12/05/2013
Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 75 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $72.65
1 Month average volatility: $1.40. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $68.92 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 64.44%
Volume: 937,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 760,486 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Tuesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/25/2013 to 12/03/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
USG Corp (USG)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 428 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $25.13
1 Month average volatility: $0.79. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $27.20 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.47%
Volume: 1,852,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,564,249 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/18/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 4 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 8%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 72% of the time.
Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $98.49
1 Month average volatility: $1.14. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $101.47 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.05%
Volume: 287,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 433,354 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Wednesday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/22/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 10 out of 21. Breakout is downward 64% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 54% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 54% of the time.
Watsco, Inc (WSO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $91.73
1 Month average volatility: $1.55. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $96.13 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 22.47%
Volume: 258,700 shares
3 month avg volume: 208,529 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 10/30/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 2 out of 21. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 18%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 59% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 73% of the time.
Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $112.90
1 Month average volatility: $2.42. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $107.49 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.37%
Volume: 277,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 372,543 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Thursday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/07/2013 to 12/05/2013
Market Vectors Money-Center (RKH)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 608
Close as of 12/04/2013: $53.67
1 Month average volatility: $0.25. Volatility based stop (assuming downward breakout): $54.18 or 0.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.36%
Volume: 300 shares
3 month avg volume: 2,877 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/19/2013 to 12/04/2013
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 492 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $15.70
1 Month average volatility: $0.18. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $15.29 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.77%
Volume: 1,290,100 shares
3 month avg volume: 1,652,166 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Monday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/30/2013 to 12/05/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 373 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $31.69
1 Month average volatility: $0.20. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $31.24 or 1.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.25%
Volume: 436,300 shares
3 month avg volume: 354,497 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/25/2013 to 12/02/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
SPDR Materials Select Sector (XLB)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 307 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $43.67
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $42.76 or 2.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.33%
Volume: 4,696,600 shares
3 month avg volume: 5,427,892 shares Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Friday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/18/2013 to 11/29/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
UltraShort 2x Basic Materials ProShares (SMN)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 591 out of 608
Close as of 12/05/2013: $38.56
1 Month average volatility: $0.65. Volatility based stop (assuming upward breakout): $36.96 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.29%
Volume: 61,000 shares
3 month avg volume: 37,675 shares Based on the avg volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)! Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes (best buy day) is Thursday, and the most up closes (best sell day) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/15/2013 to 12/02/2013
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Written and copyright © 2013 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
|
. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.
