Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/13/2019
  Indus: 27,784 +92.10 +0.3%  
  Trans: 10,843 -116.63 -1.1%  
  Utils: 844 +12.11 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 8,482 -3.99 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,094 +2.20 +0.1%  
YTD
 +19.1%  
 +18.2%  
 +18.4%  
 +27.8%  
 +23.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019
As of 11/13/2019
  Indus: 27,784 +92.10 +0.3%  
  Trans: 10,843 -116.63 -1.1%  
  Utils: 844 +12.11 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 8,482 -3.99 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,094 +2.20 +0.1%  
YTD
 +19.1%  
 +18.2%  
 +18.4%  
 +27.8%  
 +23.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/31/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,100 by 11/15/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,150 or 2,950 by 11/15/2019

 

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Thursday 11/14/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Up

The index dropped by 0.0% or -3.99 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 668 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 376 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 292 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 178/319 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two trendlines following price and lo and behold, a chart pattern appeared. Do you know its name?

Answer: it's a descending triangle.

You might think that the descending triangle breaks out downward most often, but the breakout direction is really about random. In fact, it's upward 53% of the time.

Knowing that and knowing that the above probabilities favor a higher close on Thursday, then an upward breakout is my bet.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,603.57    
 Monthly S1  8,042.83  439.27   
 Monthly Pivot  8,263.00  220.16   
 Weekly S2  8,344.37  81.37   
 Weekly S1  8,413.23  68.87   
 Daily S2  8,431.22  17.99   
 Weekly Pivot  8,448.20  16.98   
 Low  8,451.34  3.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  8,455.02  3.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  8,456.66  1.64   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,468.74  12.08   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,474.12  5.38   
 Daily Pivot  8,476.78  2.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,479.50  2.72   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  8,482.10  2.60   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  8,496.90  14.80   
 Daily R1  8,502.22  5.32   
 Weekly R1  8,517.06  14.84   
 Daily R2  8,522.34  5.28   
 Weekly R2  8,552.03  29.69   
 Monthly R1  8,702.26  150.24   
 Monthly R2  8,922.43  220.16   

Wednesday 11/13/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This sounds like a repeat of last week when I discussed bearish divergence. It's baaack!

I show a nearly horizontal line on the indicator even as the index keeps rising. That's bearish divergence and it can last a long time, as the chart shows. But it also suggests weakness.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 27% on 11/08/2019.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 484 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 15% on 11/08/2019.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Only the red line shows improvement this week when compared to the same time last week.

The indicator is climbing but slowly. The rate of climb has diminished over what we saw in prior weeks, too. To me, that says the bullish buying pressure is weakening.

Although the indicator shows an upward trend, I think underneath that strength is weakening. I don't know if the index is going to turn down soon, but my guess is, yes, it is.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 11/12/19. Slider Quiz: Rounding Tops!

The index climbed by 0.0% or 10.25 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1308 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 695 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 613 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 195/330 or 59.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the rounding top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,567.12    
 Monthly S1  26,629.30  1,062.19   
 Monthly Pivot  27,201.99  572.68   
 Weekly S2  27,250.13  48.14   
 Daily S2  27,444.46  194.33   
 Weekly S1  27,470.81  26.35   
 Low  27,517.67  46.86   
 Daily S1  27,567.98  50.31   
 Open  27,580.66  12.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,592.82  12.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,616.03  23.21   
 Weekly Pivot  27,622.74  6.71   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  27,639.24  16.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  27,641.18  1.94   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  27,691.49  50.31   
 High  27,714.39  22.90   
 Daily R1  27,764.70  50.31   
 Daily R2  27,837.90  73.21   
 Weekly R1  27,843.42  5.52   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  27,995.35  151.93   
 Monthly R1  28,264.17  268.82   
 Monthly R2  28,836.86  572.68   

 

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