|
Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Friday 11/16/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
I updated stats on head-and-shoulders bottoms.
I updated stats on complex head-and-shoulders bottoms.
$ $ $
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table. The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 603 stocks searched, or 2.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
More... -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 11/08/2018 and 11/15/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $1.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.17 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -82.09%
Volume: 222,200 shares.
3 month avg: 395,892 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/09/2018 to 11/09/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time. Average decline: 18%.
Altaba (AABA)
Industry: Internet
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $64.39
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.37 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.74%
Volume: 10,098,700 shares.
3 month avg: 8,140,182 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/11/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.
Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 350 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $65.83
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.29 or 9.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.84%
Volume: 8,750,000 shares.
3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/31/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $9.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.08 or 17.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.88%
Volume: 1,117,900 shares.
3 month avg: 503,903 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 10/30/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Brooks Automation (BRKS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $29.39
1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.66 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.23%
Volume: 531,000 shares.
3 month avg: 945,389 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 11/05/2018 to 11/05/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $8.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.55 or 12.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.15%
Volume: 130,800 shares.
3 month avg: 226,311 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/29/2018 to 11/05/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/02/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/31/2019. Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 523 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $47.19
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.22 or 23.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.38%
Volume: 10,218,600 shares.
3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/08/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time. Average decline: 18%.
El Paso Electric (EE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $56.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.75 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 368,400 shares.
3 month avg: 249,891 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 11/01/2018 to 11/12/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 19%. Break-even failure rate: 8%. Pullbacks occur 61% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.
GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 305 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $13.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.51 or 12.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.85%
Volume: 3,029,900 shares.
3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/05/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.
General Mills Inc (GIS)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $45.23
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.37 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.71%
Volume: 4,012,900 shares.
3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 10/10/2018 to 11/13/2018
Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.
Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $12.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.22 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 35.79%
Volume: 660,800 shares.
3 month avg: 321,822 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 10/29/2018 to 11/05/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time. Average decline: 20%. Break-even failure rate: 11%. Pullbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.
Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 367 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $54.38
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.90 or 10.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -7.44%
Volume: 314,200 shares.
3 month avg: 452,812 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/26/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 593 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $17.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.72 or 61.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -60.43%
Volume: 106,362,400 shares.
3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 11/08/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time. Average decline: 18%.
Progressive Corp (PGR)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 169 out of 596
11/15/18 close: $66.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.57 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.72%
Volume: 6,514,700 shares.
3 month avg: 3,017,600 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 09/11/2018 to 11/15/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.
Thursday 11/15/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
The index dropped by -0.9% or -64.48 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 201 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 1.0% on 95 occasions.
Average loss was -1.2% on 106 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 154/280 or 55.0% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 48/95 or 50.5% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
Let's take the letters in order.
Notice at A that price closed above the top of a broadening formation (right-angled and ascending). Then at B or perhaps a bit later, it closed below the pattern, busting
the upward breakout.
Based on the pattern's height, it appears to have met the measure rule target today (well, not quite. The height is just over 100 points and the index didn't drop that far below the horizontal
red line). We may have to wait for Thursday's trading to see if it actually meets the target.
I'm not sure that pattern CDE is a pattern or not. It looks like a head-and-shoulders top, except that the head (E) is awfully fat. By itself, E is a
rounding top.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2018 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 6,340.79 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 6,738.59 | 397.80 |
|
| Daily S2 | 6,991.98 | 253.39 |
|
| Weekly S2 | 7,004.68 | 12.71 |
Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2. |
| Daily S1 | 7,064.18 | 59.50 |
|
| Weekly S1 | 7,070.54 | 6.35 |
Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1. |
| Low | 7,101.17 | 30.63 |
|
| Close | 7,136.39 | 35.22 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 7,170.46 | 34.07 |
|
| Daily Pivot | 7,173.38 | 2.91 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 7,191.87 | 18.49 |
|
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 7,213.28 | 21.41 |
|
| Daily R1 | 7,245.58 | 32.31 |
|
| Open | 7,265.39 | 19.81 |
|
| High | 7,282.57 | 17.18 |
Yes! The High is close to the Open. |
| Monthly Pivot | 7,320.63 | 38.06 |
|
| Weekly Pivot | 7,321.73 | 1.10 |
Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot. |
| Daily R2 | 7,354.78 | 33.04 |
|
| Weekly R1 | 7,387.59 | 32.81 |
|
| Weekly R2 | 7,638.78 | 251.20 |
|
| Monthly R1 | 7,718.43 | 79.65 |
|
| Monthly R2 | 8,300.47 | 582.04 |
|
Wednesday 11/14/18. A Look At Indicators
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
The red line on the indicator says that the general market has suffered over the past week. That bearish signal can change for up to a week, but is usually solid after three days.
And this is day three.
So it looks like the market might be trending lower.
The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).
Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 51% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 15% on 01/26/2018.
And the most was 58% on 10/29/2018. Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 500 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 9% on 01/22/2018.
And the bottom was 24% on 10/29/2018. The above stats also confirm weakness. Both lines are worse today than they were a week ago.
The more sensitive red line has tumbled further than the blue line. It looks like it could form a double bottom (two valleys near the same price).
When combined with the prior chart, yes, it looks like the market will continue lower, at least in the short term.
$ $ $
I updated stats on gaps.
$ $ $
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.
See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.
|
If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.
on 