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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/27/2016
17,140 -260.51 -1.5%
7,093 -227.15 -3.1%
697 11.24 1.6%
4,594 -113.54 -2.4%
2,001 -36.87 -1.8%
YTD
-1.6%
-5.5%
20.6%
-8.2%
-2.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/24/2016
18,200 or 17,100 by 07/15/2016
7,900 or 7,150 by 07/15/2016
710 or 660 by 07/01/2016
4,900 or 4,650 by 07/15/2016
2,120 or 2,020 by 07/15/2016

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Tuesday 6/28/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.5% or -260.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 171 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 82 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 89 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 118/196 or 60.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/59 or 52.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I think we will see the indices begin to move higher on Tuesday. That's a guess, but this decline is way overblown, in my opinion. As I mentioned in a prior post, I'm using this event as a buying opportunity to add to existing positions (I bought more shares today).

Instead of discussing Monday's drop, let's focus on the recovery.

After a bear market ends, do stocks that decline least perform best?

No. Stocks that dropped the most during a bear market bounce back further than do those that retained more of their value on the way down.

Stocks with drops more than the median 49% in the 2000 to 2002 bear market gained a median 107% a year after the bear market ended. This compares to a median rise of just 29% for those stocks making a more shallow bear market drop (that is, they dropped less than 49%).

When you are searching for stocks to buy now, look for those stocks that have declined most, and not those that have declined least.

For more information on this study, read price recovery.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,833.05    
 Weekly S2  16,847.82  14.77   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Daily S2  16,894.05  46.23   
 Monthly S1  16,986.64  92.60   
 Weekly S1  16,994.03  7.39   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S1  17,017.14  23.11   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  17,063.08  45.94   
 Close  17,140.24  77.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,174.67  34.43   
 Daily Pivot  17,186.18  11.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,209.14  22.97   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,243.62  34.47   
 Daily R1  17,309.27  65.66   
 Open  17,355.21  45.94   
 High  17,355.21  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  17,478.31  123.10   
 Weekly Pivot  17,502.55  24.24   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  17,509.94  7.39   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  17,648.76  138.82   
 Monthly R1  17,663.53  14.77   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  18,157.28  493.75   
 Monthly R2  18,186.83  29.55   

Monday 6/27/16. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials forecast on the daily scale.

The indices took a tumble on news of Brexit.

I used this as a buying opportunity to add to existing positions at a cheaper price. My feeling is that the indices will recover in short order. Yes, you might see the indices fall on Monday but I believe it could be two years or longer for Brexit to complete, so there is plenty of time for the economies of the world to absorb the news and recover.

Look at the chart. I show these forecasts at the start of each year. You can click on the link and read how they are created.

Notice the sharp plunge predicted to end in mid July (A). Clearly the start of this plunge occurred today (Friday) instead of a few days from now (B).

Also notice how the index will recover going into year end.

Let me mention that this prediction is rarely accurate, so do not expect the Dow to reach over 20,000 at year end. However, I am hopeful that the indices will recover quickly.

I used this opportunity to buy the dip, but I'm NOT recommending that you buy here. I could be wrong about all of this.

Addendum

With all of the nervous talk about the world's economy going to zero, this is how I think Monday is going to play out.

The market will likely be down in the morning, at the open (but it could surprise and open up a bit). You'll see the nervous people selling out to the smart money.

The smart money will buy up shares quietly and then push the indices higher. This might not happen all on Monday but I think you'll see the market rebound over the coming days.

That's just a guess, but my thinking is that the Brexit fears are overblown and the market is over sold. If you have a longer term horizon, the I think you'll do well.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 129.71 points.
Tuesday: Up 24.86 points.
Wednesday: Down 48.9 points.
Thursday: Up 230.24 points.
Friday: Down 610.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 274.41 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 92.36 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 33.81 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.2% down from the high of 18,167.63 on 04/20/2016.
     12.6% up from the low of 15,450.56 on 01/20/2016.
Nasdaq
     5.5% down from the high of 4,980.14 on 06/06/2016.
     11.8% up from the low of 4,209.76 on 02/11/2016.
S&P 500
     3.9% down from the high of 2,120.55 on 06/08/2016.
     12.6% up from the low of 1,810.10 on 02/11/2016.

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Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

ReportTimeA-F
Rating
Description
Gross domestic product8:30 TBMeasures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation.
Consumer confidence10:00 TB-Surveys 5,000 households for trends.
Personal income & consumption8:30 WC+Measures sources of income to predict future demand.
Crude inventories10:30 W?My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Initial jobless claims8:30 ThC+Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Chicago purchasing managers index9:45 ThBMonitors regional manufacturing activity.
Construction spending10:00 FDCovers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction.
Auto & truck sales2:00 FC-Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/24/2016, the CPI had:

154 bearish patterns,
14 bullish patterns,
221 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 8.3%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 3 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  16,978  17,189  17,568  17,779  18,158 
Weekly  16,935  17,168  17,589  17,822  18,244 
Monthly  16,920  17,160  17,597  17,837  18,274 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  1,987  2,012  2,058  2,083  2,129 
Weekly  1,980  2,009  2,061  2,090  2,142 
Monthly  1,976  2,006  2,064  2,094  2,151 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  4,635  4,672  4,735  4,771  4,835 
Weekly  4,561  4,634  4,772  4,846  4,984 
Monthly  4,514  4,611  4,796  4,893  5,077 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 16.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 19.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 20.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks down 8.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.1%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Head-and-shoulders bottom
16Triangle, symmetrical
8Head-and-shoulders top
6Broadening top
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
4Rising wedge
4Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
4Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
4Broadening bottom
4Triangle, ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. Natural Gas (Diversified)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Electric Utility (West)3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Metal Fabricating
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
50. Information Services50. Insurance (Life)
51. Electronics51. Information Services
52. Insurance (Life)52. Short ETFs
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Apparel
54. Drug54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Apparel55. Drug
56. Biotechnology56. Biotechnology
57. Securities Brokerage57. Securities Brokerage

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/24/16. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 638 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACNBroadening top      05/25/201606/23/2016IT Services
ANTMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/09/201606/20/2016Medical Services
ADSKTriangle, descending      04/12/201606/21/2016Computer Software and Svcs
COHPipe bottom      06/06/201606/13/2016Apparel
CCRNTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/201606/23/2016Human Resources
ETHTriangle, symmetrical      04/26/201606/23/2016Furn/Home Furnishings
FEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/10/201606/20/2016Electric Utility (East)
FMCTriangle, symmetrical      06/01/201606/23/2016Chemical (Basic)
LXKTriangle, symmetrical      04/27/201606/23/2016Computers and Peripherals
NJRFlag      06/09/201606/23/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWLTriangle, ascending      05/10/201606/23/2016Household Products
POTTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201606/23/2016Chemical (Diversified)
SAIABroadening bottom      05/26/201606/20/2016Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SOFlag      06/14/201606/23/2016Electric Utility (East)
SWXPennant      06/10/201606/23/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
TJXBroadening top      05/27/201606/22/2016Retail Store
WGLPennant      06/10/201606/23/2016Natural Gas (Distributor)
XLPTriangle, ascending      05/10/201606/23/2016Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/16/2016 and 06/23/2016. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accenture plc (ACN)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $118.91
1 Month avg volatility: $1.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $121.73 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.79%
Volume: 2,858,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,209,314 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/25/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Anthem (ANTM)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 498 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $128.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $134.56 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.72%
Volume: 3,328,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,762,675 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/09/2016 to 06/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $59.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.18 or 3.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.07%
Volume: 1,410,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,727,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 04/12/2016 to 06/21/2016
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Coach Inc. (COH)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 85 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $40.43
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.71 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.53%
Volume: 2,485,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,735,672 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/06/2016 to 06/13/2016
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Cross Country Healthcare Inc (CCRN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $14.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.01 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.46%
Volume: 129,100 shares. 3 month avg: 279,411 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/10/2016 to 06/23/2016
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/10/2016. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/08/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 130 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $33.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.72 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.62%
Volume: 214,000 shares. 3 month avg: 178,092 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/26/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 371 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $33.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.17 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.51%
Volume: 4,121,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,365,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/10/2016 to 06/20/2016
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $49.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.77 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.99%
Volume: 1,651,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,558,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/01/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lexmark International Inc. (LXK)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $37.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.95 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.04%
Volume: 726,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,226,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/27/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 182 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $36.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.27 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.86%
Volume: 397,700 shares. 3 month avg: 499,149 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/09/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Newell Rubbermaid Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 199 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $49.46
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.62 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.21%
Volume: 3,065,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,646,323 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/10/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 464 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $17.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.94 or 8.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.10%
Volume: 17,196,500 shares. 3 month avg: 9,115,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 112 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $26.01
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.95 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.90%
Volume: 136,500 shares. 3 month avg: 291,243 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 05/26/2016 to 06/20/2016
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Southern Company (SO)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 249 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $51.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.57 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.13%
Volume: 4,063,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,842,791 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/14/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 21 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $74.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.95 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 35.53%
Volume: 144,400 shares. 3 month avg: 201,402 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/10/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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TJX Companies Inc (TJX)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $76.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.70 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.42%
Volume: 2,115,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,194,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 05/27/2016 to 06/22/2016
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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WGL Holdings (WGL)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 302 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $68.05
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.19 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.03%
Volume: 230,600 shares. 3 month avg: 255,506 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/10/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 303 out of 630
6/23/16 close: $54.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.05 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.23%
Volume: 5,629,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,834,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/10/2016 to 06/23/2016
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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