Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/17/2021
  Indus: 34,585 -166.44 -0.5%  
  Trans: 14,268 -187.76 -1.3%  
  Utils: 904 -12.93 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,044 -137.95 -0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,433 -40.76 -0.9%  
YTD
 +13.0%  
 +14.1%  
 +4.5%  
 +16.7%  
 +18.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,800 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow930 or 890 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,350 by 10/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/3/21
As of 09/17/2021
  Indus: 34,585 -166.44 -0.5%  
  Trans: 14,268 -187.76 -1.3%  
  Utils: 904 -12.93 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,044 -137.95 -0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,433 -40.76 -0.9%  
YTD
 +13.0%  
 +14.1%  
 +4.5%  
 +16.7%  
 +18.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,800 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow930 or 890 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,350 by 10/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/3/21

 

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Monday 9/20/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I drew two trendlines, shown here in red. The first is along the bottom. It has 3 touches but only two are widely spaced. Touch spacing is important to the strength (performance) of the trendline (acting as support and resistance).

The top line I drew along the peaks, connecting the early ones but slicing through point A.

The index moved above the top trendline and fell back down below it. It looks as if the Nasdaq will bounce off the bottom line.

Stay tuned to see if it actually happens. That means I'm expecting the Nasdaq to continue moving lower.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 261.91 points.
Tuesday: Down 292.06 points.
Wednesday: Up 236.82 points.
Thursday: Down 63.07 points.
Friday: Down 166.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 22.84 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 71.52 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 25.59 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     15.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     21.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     21.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,368  34,476  34,628  34,737  34,888 
Weekly  34,215  34,400  34,695  34,880  35,175 
Monthly  33,788  34,186  34,909  35,307  36,030 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,400  4,417  4,444  4,460  4,488 
Weekly  4,386  4,410  4,451  4,475  4,516 
Monthly  4,271  4,352  4,449  4,530  4,627 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,902  14,973  15,070  15,141  15,238 
Weekly  14,851  14,947  15,081  15,178  15,312 
Monthly  13,977  14,510  14,957  15,491  15,937 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, APD, ALRM, AYX, AEE, AFG, ANTM, AAPL, ARCB, ASH, ADP, BLL, BAX, BECN, BOOT, EPAY, CBT, CACI, CLS, CX, CNP, CIEN, CMCO, ED, CSOD, CRH, CMI, DECK, DVN, D, DTE, EMN, RE, EXPD, FAST, FE, FIVN, FLS, FORM, GIS, GL, GS, GGG, EVRG, HIG, HAYN, HL, HP, HSIC, HD, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, IPI, INTU, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LAMR, MAN, MRTN, MAS, MTRN, MGEE, MLHR, MCO, MLI, NBR, NTGR, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, PKG, PANW, PFE, PCG, PGR, PRU, PEG, RL, RMBS, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SCS, TFX, TDC, TXN, TKR, UNM, IYM, QTEC, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, MXI, GLD, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Shoe2. Medical Supplies
3. Medical Supplies3. Shoe
4. Retail Store4. Retail Store
5. Computers and Peripherals5. E-Commerce
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. IT Services
7. E-Commerce7. Computers and Peripherals
8. IT Services8. Human Resources
9. Human Resources9. Drug
10. Drug10. Insurance (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Machinery50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Metals and Mining (Div.)51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Insurance (Life)52. Building Materials
53. Telecom. Equipment53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Natural Gas (Distributor)54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Chemical (Specialty)56. Metal Fabricating
57. Metal Fabricating57. Apparel
58. Apparel58. Short ETFs
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Integrated)
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/17/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AES, ALRM, AMZN, AEE, AMN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AMAT, ADP, AVY, AXS, BLL, BERY, BIG, BKH, BOOT, CBT, CACI, CX, CNP, CNO, ED, CR, CMI, DECK, DVN, ^DJU, DOV, WIRE, EFX, EZPW, FFIV, FE, GME, GD, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HURC, IPAR, INTU, ISRG, K, KMT, KSS, LHX, LLY, LMT, LOW, M, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MLHR, NBR, CNR, NJR, NXGN, NOC, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PFE, POR, PPG, PRU, RMBS, RHI, RCKY, ROG, RES, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SO, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TER, TXT, TSCO, TG, UNM, VLO, VMI, VRTX, VC, WMT, WAT, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IHE, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWL, TUR, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLB, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALKBroadening top      08/25/202109/15/2021Air Transport
DOXTriangle, symmetrical      07/12/202109/16/2021IT Services
BLDRScallop, ascending and inverted      08/19/202109/15/2021Retail Building Supply
CENXRising wedge      08/12/202109/16/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLFFalling wedge      08/11/202109/16/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CWBroadening bottom      08/02/202109/10/2021Machinery
DDSRectangle top      08/13/202109/16/2021Retail Store
FORMScallop, ascending and inverted      08/19/202109/15/2021Semiconductor
GERectangle top      07/21/202109/16/2021Diversified Co.
IPGBroadening top      08/25/202109/16/2021Advertising
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/202109/13/2021Building Materials
MRTNDiamond top      08/23/202109/16/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
RHIRectangle top      08/16/202109/16/2021Human Resources
TGRectangle bottom      07/06/202109/14/2021Chemical (Specialty)
TREXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/02/202109/13/2021Building Materials

 

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Thursday 9/16/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.8% or 123.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 411 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 270 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 141 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 226/394 or 57.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of BTC-USD (bitcoin).

I wrote about a month ago about the coin making a double bottom and predicting a rise. That was correct and it took the coin from about 47,000 to almost 53,000 (up to D).

There's a smaller double bottom at AB. I confirms at C when the coin closed above the peak between the two bottoms. Target: D.

I'm using the measure rule here, which is the height of the double bottom (A to the red line) added to the value of the red line. I'm eyeballing it, but it should top out near the old high (D) if it behaves itself.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 86 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AES, AA, ADS, AEE, ABC, ARCB, ADP, BLL, BIG, BRKS, CBT, CALM, CAL, CLS, CENX, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CMCO, ED, COTY, DVN, D, DUK, WIRE, EOG, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GPN, EVRG, HIG, DHI, HURC, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KALU, KLIC, LDOS, RAMP, MRO, MTRX, MGEE, NXGN, NUS, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, PINC, RMBS, REV, SIGI, NOW, SKX, LUV, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TXN, TG, WMT, WERN, IYM, IYK, IEZ, IHE, FXI, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EWP, EWL, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,015.76    
 Monthly S1  14,588.65  572.88   
 Daily S2  14,917.16  328.52   
 Weekly S2  14,933.30  16.13   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  14,984.68  51.38   
 Monthly Pivot  14,996.04  11.36   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,039.35  43.30   
 Weekly S1  15,047.41  8.07   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,057.15  9.73   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  15,071.34  14.19   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,079.53  8.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,101.92  22.38   
 Daily Pivot  15,106.86  4.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,161.53  54.67   
 High  15,174.38  12.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  15,225.43  51.05   
 Daily R1  15,229.05  3.62   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  15,296.56  67.52   
 Weekly R1  15,339.54  42.98   
 Weekly R2  15,517.56  178.01   
 Monthly R1  15,568.93  51.37   
 Monthly R2  15,976.32  407.40   

 

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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