As of 03/05/2021   Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%     Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%     Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%     Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%     S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%	YTD  +2.9%    +9.0%   -5.9%    +0.2%    +2.3%	Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021     32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021   14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021   850 or 770 by 03/15/2021   14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021   4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 3/5/21

As of 03/05/2021   Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%     Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%     Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%     Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%     S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%	YTD  +2.9%    +9.0%   -5.9%    +0.2%    +2.3%
Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021     32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021   14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021   850 or 770 by 03/15/2021   14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021   4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): on 3/5/21

Monday 3/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

On this chart, I highlight a chart patterns called a broadening top (A).

That chart pattern has price following two trendlines. One slopes upward and the one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge.

The breakout from this pattern is upward 60% of the time.

Will this one breakout upward, too? Here's a hint: Look at point B. Notice how price has dropped and appears to be moving back up. It's too early to tell for sure, but B looks to me like a particle decline.

A partial decline appears in some patterns (only a few, on a regular basis, like your broadening patterns) when price leaves the top trendline, heading down. It drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An immediate upward breakout follows 72% of the time. An upward breakout looks like it's about to happen in this case, but only time will say if that's what happens.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz. It has a new feature (Main Form, Seasonality menu) called "Best Trading Time." This was inspired by Abe M. It allows you to ask the program, "What's the best time to buy if I want to make x% in y price bars?" (such as 5% in 10 bars or 100% in a year).

$ $ $

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANIK, APA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BA, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EL, FEYE, FLEX, FCX, IT, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IVC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, RGS, ROG, SLGN, SWN, SRDX, TER, TXN, TSCO, RIG, TG, VEEV, WSO, WLK, WEX, XEL, IYM, IYC, IHE, FXI, IYZ, EWK, EEM, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, PPA, IEV, MXI, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/5/21. Home Front Update. I Have Water!

No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today's activity went.

I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.

Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up. I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I'd cut earlier to make then 'square' and finished off the next burst pipe.

After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I'd made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with 1/4 turn things). All looked good.

Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.

However, my master bath faucet didn't work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn't change anything. I scratched my head over that.

I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze (inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).

I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.

In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.

All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!

I'd like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

Thursday 3/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Starting on the left, there's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that's in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better if it's more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).

What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That's a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4. Of course, I'm not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached 13,000.

On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I'm looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:

Copyright © 2005-2021 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer ☰