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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
Trading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Swing and Day Trading: Evolution of a Trader book.
Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book.
Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
Class Elliott Wave Fundamentals Psychology Quiz Research Setups Software Tutorials More...
Busted
Patterns
Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/18/2018
24,987 -103.01 -0.4%
11,050 -24.14 -0.2%
681 2.25 0.3%
7,747 0.65 0.0%
2,774 -5.91 -0.2%
YTD
1.1%
4.1%
-5.9%
12.2%
3.7%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/14/2018
25,750 or 24,500 by 07/01/2018
11,350 or 10,600 by 07/01/2018
695 or 645 by 07/01/2018
8,000 or 7,500 by 07/01/2018
2,850 or 2,700 by 07/01/2018

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Tuesday 6/19/18. Life isn't Fun

Picture of facebook.

I logged into Facebook to delete my account and spent a half hour trying to figure out how to do it. I found all sorts of instructions in the help center about HOW deletion works, but no actual steps to delete the account.

I finally found the link to remove the page. It's simple enough. You just fill in your password and enter the captcha letters. The problem is, it doesn't work!

I show a pic of the screen. I don't see anything wrong with this. The password is correct. I know this because I typed it into notepad and pasted it into Facebook during log in. So it must be the captcha letters.

I tried over a dozen times, each with a different captcha sequence, but it still wouldn't let me in. So I changed browsers and tried again. This time, the captcha letters didn't appear. A message said to refresh the screen, which I did, multiple times, and still no luck.

So I spent another fifteen minutes trying to figure out how to send FB a message for help. That's no easy task, either. Most of what they have are help screens telling you how to do stuff, and not a link to customer service.

$ $ $

So then I logged into email and found a report of someone asking to reverse engineer my free patternz program.

Here's an email I received three days ago asking about how the program works.

I was wondering if you can you provide me with the mathematical formula your program uses to calculate each candlestick, the breakout, the breakout date, the stop, etc. I know this information is proprietary to you....

And here's today's email I received regarding a request for help to reverse engineer patternz.

I am looking for an experienced software expert to reverse engineer a Windows-based software. The name of the software is Patternz. This is a free software automatically finds chart and candlestick patterns for financial instruments (stocks), and I need to know how it works. In order words, I need to know how does it calculate the different candlestick patterns and chart pattern. I need to know the formulas that this program is using to calculate all 105 candlestick patterns, 66 unique chart patterns, Breakout, Breakout Date, Approx. Breakout Price, Approx. Target, Volatility Stop, etc.

Sounds to me like the same person, doesn't it?

I provide this website for free to anyone who wants to use it. I provide the software free. There's no registration required, no need to create a login Id or password to access any of this. And this type of crap is how I'm repaid. Wow.


Monday 6/18/18. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I drew the red trendline sloping down, hoping to connect three points to make a symmetrical triangle, but the peaks wouldn't cooperate.

Instead, I saw the lopping movement from B to A. That's a throwback. In this case, the index returns to trendline support before moving higher.

The bigger picture shows a measured move up chart pattern which ends at C. The second leg is AC. I've spoken enough recently about these patterns, so let me say there's a good chance that the index will return to stop somewhere between the two horizontal blue lines (the corrective phase).

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 5.78 points.
Tuesday: Down 1.58 points.
Wednesday: Down 119.53 points.
Thursday: Down 25.89 points.
Friday: Down 84.83 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 226.05 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 100.87 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 0.63 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.7% down from the high of 26,616.71 on 01/26/2018.
     7.5% up from the low of 23,344.52 on 04/02/2018.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 7,768.60 on 06/14/2018.
     16.8% up from the low of 6,630.67 on 02/09/2018.
S&P 500
     3.2% down from the high of 2,872.87 on 01/26/2018.
     9.8% up from the low of 2,532.69 on 02/09/2018.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 06/15/2018, the CPI had:

24 bearish patterns,
25 bullish patterns,
271 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 51.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,802  24,946  25,039  25,183  25,275 
Weekly  24,621  24,856  25,129  25,364  25,638 
Monthly  23,759  24,425  24,914  25,580  26,069 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,754  2,767  2,775  2,788  2,796 
Weekly  2,748  2,764  2,778  2,794  2,807 
Monthly  2,635  2,707  2,749  2,822  2,864 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,684  7,715  7,735  7,767  7,787 
Weekly  7,594  7,670  7,719  7,796  7,845 
Monthly  7,164  7,455  7,612  7,903  8,060 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.6%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months up 34.0%   The trend may continue. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks up 17.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 38.6%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks up 20.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months up 30.7%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
19Measured move up
15Measured move down
15Pipe bottom
11Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
9Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triangle, descending
6Rising wedge
6Pipe top
4Flag

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Shoe
2. Short ETFs2. Healthcare Information
3. Internet3. Short ETFs
4. Shoe4. Internet
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/15/18. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 614 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACETFlag, high and tight      04/23/201806/12/2018Chemical (Diversified)
AONTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/201806/12/2018Insurance (Diversified)
AXSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/22/201806/11/2018Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BLLBroadening wedge, descending      05/10/201806/13/2018Packaging and Container
CGNXTriangle, descending      05/14/201806/14/2018Precision Instrument
CONNPennant      06/12/201806/14/2018Retail (Special Lines)
COTYPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Toiletries/Cosmetics
HAYNPipe top      05/29/201806/04/2018Building Materials
JBHTRising wedge      05/21/201806/14/2018Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCPipe top      05/29/201806/04/2018Machinery
INFNPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Telecom. Equipment
IVCBroadening top      03/01/201806/14/2018Medical Supplies
KLICTriangle, symmetrical      05/31/201806/14/2018Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LNCPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Insurance (Life)
NWLPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Household Products
JWNBroadening top      03/13/201806/14/2018Retail Store
OTEXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/02/201806/14/2018E-Commerce
DGXFlag      06/12/201806/14/2018Medical Services
RTNTriple top      05/11/201806/08/2018Aerospace/Defense
TLRDDead-cat bounce      06/14/201806/14/2018Retail (Special Lines)
TPXPipe bottom      05/29/201806/04/2018Furn/Home Furnishings
TMOTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/201806/08/2018Precision Instrument
WATTriangle, descending      01/29/201806/08/2018Precision Instrument
BOTZTriangle, symmetrical      04/18/201806/12/2018Electronics

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 06/07/2018 and 06/14/2018. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Aceto Corp (ACET)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 606 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $3.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.14 or 17.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -63.02%
Volume: 257,300 shares. 3 month avg: 395,892 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/23/2018 to 06/12/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 04/19/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/19/2018 and a 38% chance by 10/18/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $140.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.37 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.63%
Volume: 802,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2018 to 06/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $56.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.02 or 2.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.71%
Volume: 427,100 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 05/22/2018 to 06/11/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ball Corp (BLL)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $36.88
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.69 or 3.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.56%
Volume: 2,177,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,433,769 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 05/10/2018 to 06/13/2018
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cognex (CGNX)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $45.78
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.75 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.15%
Volume: 1,015,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,157,365 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/14/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $35.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.45 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.70%
Volume: 657,700 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 06/12/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $14.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.21 or 7.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.31%
Volume: 5,634,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Haynes International Inc. (HAYN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $39.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.42 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.78%
Volume: 103,200 shares. 3 month avg: 80,035 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 166 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $129.65
1 Month avg volatility: $3.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $136.90 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.76%
Volume: 549,500 shares. 3 month avg: 898,451 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 05/21/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $44.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.60 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.98%
Volume: 14,000 shares. 3 month avg: 26,271 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Infinera Corp. (INFN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 53 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $9.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.98 or 8.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.61%
Volume: 1,041,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/10/2018. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/09/2018 and a 38% chance by 11/08/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $19.75
1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.87 or 5.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.21%
Volume: 480,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $23.47
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.03 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.53%
Volume: 556,800 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/31/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 499 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $68.05
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.50 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.47%
Volume: 2,435,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Newell Brands Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $26.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.58 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.60%
Volume: 6,486,000 shares. 3 month avg: 7,205,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/25/2018. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/26/2018.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $49.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.97 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.26%
Volume: 3,028,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/13/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $35.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.01 or 2.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.24%
Volume: 467,800 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 03/02/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 184 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $110.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.25 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.64%
Volume: 768,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/12/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 267 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $202.68
1 Month avg volatility: $3.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $213.12 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.89%
Volume: 2,058,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,302,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 05/11/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $26.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.12 or 18.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.10%
Volume: 14,607,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 06/14/2018 to 06/14/2018
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $50.20
1 Month avg volatility: $1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.55 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.92%
Volume: 1,402,200 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/29/2018 to 06/04/2018
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 194 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $216.55
1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $209.31 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.05%
Volume: 997,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/01/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Waters Corp (WAT)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 352 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $200.27
1 Month avg volatility: $3.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.62 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.66%
Volume: 2,024,800 shares. 3 month avg: 474,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 01/29/2018 to 06/08/2018
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Global X Robotics and Artificial Intell (BOTZ)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 607
6/14/18 close: $23.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.91 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.31%
Volume: 1,113,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/18/2018 to 06/12/2018
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 6/14/18. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -8.09 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 581 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 320 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 261 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 147/266 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 46/89 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The pattern shown in red is a measured move up. The first leg is inconveniently labeled A, the corrective phase is B, and the second leg is C.

Notice how the slope of A is similar to the slope of C. Also ponder how the length of A is similar to the length of B. Yes, both the slope and length of the lines could be due to the way I drew them, or it could be due to a left-wing conspiracy.

The chart pattern suggests a drop back to the corrective phase. That means the index could drop into the area between the two horizontal green lines.

Tell your neighbors...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2018 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,844.15    
 Monthly S1  7,269.92  425.78   
 Monthly Pivot  7,483.67  213.74   
 Weekly S2  7,515.23  31.56   
 Weekly S1  7,605.46  90.24   
 Daily S2  7,648.13  42.66   
 Weekly Pivot  7,651.44  3.31   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  7,671.91  20.48   
 Low  7,686.65  14.74   
 Close  7,695.70  9.05   
 Daily Pivot  7,710.44  14.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,710.45  0.02   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  7,713.90  3.45   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,717.81  3.91   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,725.16  7.35   
 Daily R1  7,734.22  9.07   
 Weekly R1  7,741.67  7.45   
 High  7,748.96  7.29   
 Daily R2  7,772.75  23.79   
 Weekly R2  7,787.65  14.90   
 Monthly R1  7,909.44  121.80   
 Monthly R2  8,123.19  213.74   

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