Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

Wednesday 2/12/14. What's Hot Wednesday

The following are taken from my database of about 560 stocks and 100 exchange traded funds (ETFs), not from the entire stock market.

Stocks and ETFs with the least amount of noise (low noise means it trends up, down, or both rather than moving sideways) make for better swing trading candidates. ETFs, on average, have lower noise levels than stocks, but that could be due to lots of gaps (which I consider bad). Click here for more information on noise.

Biggest winners and losers over the past week, from the close on 03/04/2014 to 03/11/2014 and year to date. These lists are useful for momentum players, those that buy stocks moving up or trending lower. Also, look for several stocks from the same industry. Finding some may give a clue to an industry on the move, one either trending up or suffering. The lists also include country ETFs. If those are performing well, consider diversifying into them.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past month.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.

Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past month.

Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 3 months.

Below are the top 10 ETFs with the least amount of noise during the past 6 months.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance during the past week out of 509 stocks. Stocks from this list may suggest what stocks or industries will do well in the future.

Below are the 10 worst performing stocks during the past week out of 509 stocks. Stocks from this list suggest companies or industries that may be having difficulty and might be future short sale candidates.

Below are the top 10 stocks with the best performance year to date out of 509 stocks. Knowing which securities are trending higher makes selecting stocks for momentum trades much easier, especially if some share the same industry.

Below are the 10 worst performing stocks year to date out of 509 stocks. These stocks might represent a good momentum trade from the short side. If some stocks also share the same industry, then the industry may be weak, so concentrate your search there.

Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance this past week out of 95 ETFs. A hot ETF may suggest an industry or commodity that is doing well, so look there for individual stock picks or just trade the ETF for a momentum play.

Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs over the past week out of 95 ETFs. These funds may represent companies or industries that are suffering. Avoid going long in those stocks or buying any stocks from those industries.

Below are the top 10 exchange traded funds (ETF) with the best performance year to date out of 95 ETFs. Concentrate your individual stock picks from industries that are doing well, or trade the ETF for a momentum play.

Below are the 10 worst performing ETFs year to date out of 95 ETFs. These represent the stocks or industries you will want to avoid buying or want to concentrate selling short.

Below is a list of market index performance over the past week.

Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance this past week out of 26 ETFs. These may highlight emerging markets that are ready to soar.

Below are the top 10 country exchange traded funds with the best performance year to date out of 26 ETFs. Finding several countries from a similar region that is performing well helps identify which international mutual fund or ETF may continue to do well in the future.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/11/14. Trading Tuesday: Dow

Since I post this entry the night before, be sure to check how the futures are trading before the market opens. Large plus or minus numbers in the futures often sets the opening direction up or down, respectively.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale from Friday's and Monday's trading.

On Friday, late in the session, the Dow made a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. I show that as LS, head, and RS, but it's not a textbook example because the left shoulder (LS) is too far from the head, making it look lopsided instead of symmetrical. This confirmed as a valid pattern when the index closed above the red neckline at C. Since it was late in the session, I would have ignored the buy signal.

At the open the next day, when the index dropped, it busted the pattern (a close below the lowest valley in the pattern, which is the head). When that happens, it can lead to a powerful move down, which it did.

Today, we had another head-and-shoulders, a top, and this one busted, too. Price closed above the top of the head, busting the pattern. That suggested a powerful move up. Price HAS climbed, but my guess is there's more to come at the open tomorrow. The above probabilities suggest a higher close, too.

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/10/14. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Economic Reports
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

A broadening top chart pattern appears outlined in red. It's not a perfect example, of course, because the bottom price action doesn't touch the lower trendline as it would in the ideal case.

A support area I show highlighted in blue connects peaks and valleys and it supports the index.

Now, the index has made a curving climb from the low in February. There's a thing called a Fibonacci extension and you can read about it in the link. It's mostly fantasy, but if it works in the minds of traders, maybe it'll work in reality. Surprisingly, that's what happens in technical analysis often. If you test the idea, it doesn't work. In the marketplace, it seems to work just fine. Go figure.

A Brief Look Back

The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

Report	Time	A-F Rating	Description
Wholesale inventories	10:00 T	D-	Wholesale sales and inventory statistics.
Crude inventories	10:30 W	?	My guess: Measures oil inventory.
Treasury budget	2:00 W	D	Tracks budget deficit. Important in April (tax filing).
Initial jobless claims	8:30 Th	C+	Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits.
Retail sales	8:30 Th	A-	Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending?
International trade	8:30 Th	C+	Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others.
Business inventories	10:00 Th	C-	Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories.
Producer price index	8:30 F	B-	Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/07/2014, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Buy-and-Hold: 12-Month SMA

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Written and copyright © 2014 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.