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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Busted
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 07/27/2016
18,472 -1.58 0.0%
7,861 -118.85 -1.5%
705 -8.39 -1.2%
5,140 29.76 0.6%
2,167 -2.60 -0.1%
YTD
6.0%
4.7%
22.0%
2.6%
6.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/14/2016
17,800 or 18,600 by 08/01/2016
8,350 or 7,600 by 08/01/2016
685 or 725 by 08/01/2016
5,250 or 4,950 by 08/15/2016
2,200 or 2,070 by 08/01/2016

  Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

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Thursday 7/28/16. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 29.76 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 468 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 290 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 178 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 109/188 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 37/75 or 49.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two peaks at A and B form a chart pattern called a double top.

It won't become an actual double top until the index closes below the red line (C). That line marks the bottom of the valley between two the tops.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

 

 

My latest book (shown) has zoomed up to number one on Amazon.com in the new releases category for business investments.

 

I remember when my first book appeared. It made it to number five in Australia.

 

You can buy a copy of the book by clicking on the link.

 

 

$ $ $

 

 

 

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,409.92    
 Monthly S1  4,774.87  364.94   
 Monthly Pivot  4,939.19  164.33   
 Weekly S2  5,015.24  76.05   
 Weekly S1  5,077.53  62.28   
 Weekly Pivot  5,090.52  13.00   
 Daily S2  5,106.78  16.25   
 Low  5,120.66  13.88   
 Daily S1  5,123.29  2.63   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,132.27  8.98   
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,135.86  3.59   
 Daily Pivot  5,137.18  1.32   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,139.45  2.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  5,139.81  0.36   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,143.84  4.03   
 High  5,151.06  7.22   
 Weekly R1  5,152.81  1.75   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  5,153.69  0.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  5,165.80  12.11   
 Daily R2  5,167.58  1.77   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  5,304.14  136.56   
 Monthly R2  5,468.46  164.33   

Wednesday 7/27/16. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The recent dip in the indicator didn't translate into a lasting bearish signal. The last green bar on the right is the most recent signal, a bullish one.

This event surprises me because I thought and still think that the indices will retrace. But it always seems to take longer than I expect for that to occur, even when I factor in a longer delay. Go figure.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Monday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 33%.
The fewest was 31% on 07/31/2015.
And the most was 70% on 02/11/2016.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 531 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 15% on 07/22/2016.
And the bottom was 32% on 02/11/2016.

The red line shows a sawtooth pattern as it struggles for direction. The above numbers say there was a slight improvement in the stocks I follow during the past week. Fewer of them are in bear market territory.

The blue line is flat, saying that the average stock I follow hasn't improved enough to change the overall average during the past two weeks.

It's possible that the two lines are showing bearish divergence. One is trending up and one is flat. I think it suggests weakness will come soon.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 7/26/16. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -77.79 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 882 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 449 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 433 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 120/199 or 60.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 31/60 or 51.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The red line is a support area.

If you believe in price mirrors, then look for the index to follow the green line. It should make a smaller peak and then drop.

Why would it do this? It's earnings season, so maybe we'll get a one-day bump after the report of good earnings followed by a drop of a few days when additional earnings push it lower.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2016 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,500.45    
 Monthly S1  17,496.76  996.30   
 Monthly Pivot  18,059.38  562.63   
 Weekly S2  18,375.91  316.52   
 Daily S2  18,397.59  21.68   
 Weekly S1  18,434.48  36.90   
 Daily S1  18,445.32  10.84   
 Low  18,452.62  7.29   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,491.88  39.26   
 Close  18,493.06  1.18   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,500.36  7.30   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,504.01  3.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,516.13  12.13   
 Weekly Pivot  18,528.25  12.11   
 Daily R1  18,548.09  19.85   
 Open  18,554.49  6.40   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  18,555.39  0.90   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  18,586.82  31.43   
 Daily R2  18,603.13  16.30   
 Weekly R2  18,680.59  77.46   
 Monthly R1  19,055.69  375.10   
 Monthly R2  19,618.31  562.63   

Written by and copyright © 2005-2016 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.