Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 07/19/2019
  Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%  
  Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%  
  Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%  
YTD
 +16.4%  
 +15.6%  
 +15.0%  
 +22.8%  
 +18.7%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 800 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019
As of 07/19/2019
  Industrials: 27,154 -68.77 -0.3%  
  Transports: 10,604 +66.69 +0.6%  
  Utilities: 820 -11.25 -1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 8,146 -60.75 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 2,977 -18.50 -0.6%  
YTD
 +16.4%  
 +15.6%  
 +15.0%  
 +22.8%  
 +18.7%  
  Tom's Targets    Overview: 07/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,500 or 28,000 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow10,000 or 11,000 by 08/01/2019
  Up arrow850 or 800 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow7,950 or 8,500 by 08/01/2019
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,075 by 08/01/2019

 

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Monday 7/22/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I recall drawing this chart before, with the top trendline bending over and the bottom one straight. What does it mean?

The price range (high to low) is narrowing. That means lower volatility. And I recall from playing with Bollinger bands that periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility. And vice versa.

So we're going to see a big move. When? Haven't a clue.

Notice that the top line is bending over. That means momentum is slowing. To me, that suggests a downward move and yet, Tom's Targets at the top of this page show the utilities as being the only upward move (of the indices I follow) expected going into the start of August.

Go figure. The passage of time changes my view.

It's possible we could see a big move upward. The index was upset today that the FED has signaled a smaller rate decrease than hoped. So maybe we'll see a recovery in the coming days and a push to new highs. So I'll leave my upward target intact.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 27.13 points.
Tuesday: Down 23.53 points.
Wednesday: Down 115.78 points.
Thursday: Up 3.12 points.
Friday: Down 68.77 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 177.83 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 97.65 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 37.16 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     19.9% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     1.4% down from the high of 8,264.78 on 07/15/2019.
     26.2% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 3,017.80 on 07/15/2019.
     21.8% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,017  27,086  27,214  27,283  27,411 
Weekly  26,877  27,016  27,207  27,346  27,537 
Monthly  25,559  26,356  26,878  27,675  28,196 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,956  2,966  2,986  2,996  3,016 
Weekly  2,944  2,961  2,989  3,005  3,034 
Monthly  2,830  2,903  2,961  3,034  3,091 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,078  8,112  8,179  8,213  8,280 
Weekly  8,052  8,099  8,182  8,229  8,312 
Monthly  7,622  7,884  8,075  8,337  8,527 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.2%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 42.7%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months up 39.4%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Wolfe wave, bear
11Triangle, symmetrical
8Double Top, Adam and Adam
7Triple top
7Triangle, ascending
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Pipe top
4V Bottom Extension
4Broadening top, right-angled and ascending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. IT Services1. IT Services
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services3. Information Services
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 7/19/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz (7.0.0.14). It has important bug fixes and a number of enhancements.

I released performance statistics (an article) on extended V-tops.

$ $ $

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADTNDead-cat bounce      07/18/201907/18/2019Telecom. Equipment
AABroadening wedge, ascending      06/03/201907/18/2019Aerospace/Defense
BAXTriangle, ascending      07/01/201907/17/2019Medical Supplies
CNOPipe top      07/01/201907/08/2019Insurance (Diversified)
CCKPipe top      07/01/201907/08/2019Packaging and Container
DTriangle, symmetrical      06/24/201907/17/2019Electric Utility (East)
DRQTriangle, descending      07/01/201907/18/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DTETriangle, ascending      05/30/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (Central)
DUKTriangle, symmetrical      07/01/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (East)
BOOMBroadening bottom      06/14/201907/12/2019Metal Fabricating
XOMTriple top      06/21/201907/12/2019Petroleum (Integrated)
FETriangle, ascending      06/04/201907/18/2019Electric Utility (East)
HONHead-and-shoulders top      06/20/201907/15/2019Aerospace/Defense
HOVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/02/201907/15/2019Homebuilding
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      06/13/201907/17/2019Food Processing
NJRTriangle, ascending      07/01/201907/16/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)
NXGNTriangle, symmetrical      07/02/201907/18/2019Healthcare Information
NBLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/12/2019Petroleum (Producing)
JWNChannel      06/17/201907/18/2019Retail Store
NUSDead-cat bounce      07/17/201907/17/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
SUMTriangle, descending      06/28/201907/18/2019Cement and Aggregates
TFXTriangle, ascending      06/20/201907/17/2019Diversified Co.
TXTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/16/2019Diversified Co.
TOLTriangle, symmetrical      05/16/201907/18/2019Homebuilding
RIGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/01/201907/15/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TGChannel      05/17/201907/18/2019Chemical (Specialty)
SLCADouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/15/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
UGITriangle, symmetrical      03/27/201907/18/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/11/2019 and 07/18/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 377 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $12.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.55 or 44.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.94%
Volume: 3,142,800 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/18/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $23.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.32 or 12.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.93%
Volume: 10,696,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,976,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 06/03/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 73% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

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Baxter International, Inc. (BAX)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $83.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.94 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.22%
Volume: 3,649,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,457,589 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $16.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.26 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.95%
Volume: 782,000 shares. 3 month avg: 898,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Crown Holdings Inc (CCK)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 142 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $59.58
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.29 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 43.32%
Volume: 3,725,500 shares. 3 month avg: 762,669 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/08/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 257 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $77.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.27 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.34%
Volume: 3,089,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,249,422 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/24/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 138 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $46.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.17 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 53.88%
Volume: 324,200 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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DTE Energy Company (DTE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 204 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $131.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.75 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.09%
Volume: 804,400 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/30/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 351 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $89.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.15 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.04%
Volume: 1,911,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 5 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $62.18
1 Month avg volatility: $2.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.19 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 77.05%
Volume: 250,500 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/14/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $74.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.03 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 9.75%
Volume: 11,424,000 shares. 3 month avg: 15,538,298 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 06/21/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $44.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.98 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.26%
Volume: 2,542,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/04/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 123 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $173.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $178.41 or 2.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.61%
Volume: 4,128,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $6.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.73 or 39.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -59.18%
Volume: 312,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $150.80
1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.53 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.73%
Volume: 84,500 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/13/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 282 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $50.36
1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.14 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.27%
Volume: 309,500 shares. 3 month avg: 424,785 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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NextGen Healthcare Inc (NXGN)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 211 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $20.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.01 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.47%
Volume: 182,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/02/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $20.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.17 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.09%
Volume: 5,624,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/12/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $29.37
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.53 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.99%
Volume: 3,511,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 06/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $39.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.51 or 10.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.86%
Volume: 1,333,600 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/17/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $18.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.26 or 9.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 49.27%
Volume: 1,112,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/28/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 54 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $340.48
1 Month avg volatility: $5.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $321.12 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 31.72%
Volume: 169,100 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/17/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Textron Inc (TXT)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $48.85
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.03 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.22%
Volume: 3,502,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/16/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Toll Brothers (TOL)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $36.27
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.13 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.14%
Volume: 1,719,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/16/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $5.63
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.35 or 12.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.88%
Volume: 19,202,200 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 415 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $16.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.69 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.49%
Volume: 68,100 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 05/17/2019 to 07/18/2019

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $10.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.49 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.37%
Volume: 1,984,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/15/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 459 out of 587
7/18/19 close: $51.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.45 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -3.32%
Volume: 1,270,500 shares. 3 month avg: 686,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/27/2019 to 07/18/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 7/18/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -37.59 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 348 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 171 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 177 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/305 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/102 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

For the last two days the index has been dropping as the two red lines show. They form a chart pattern called a falling wedge.

Those breakout upward 68% of the time, according to the latest statistics.

Even if that's the case, it seems the market is headed lower. I wrote yesterday of bearish divergence in both charts. That's the first time I've seen it happen (to be fair, I wasn't always looking for divergence). The CPI has turned bearish, too, but that signal can disappear if the market advances strongly.

I've swapped direction on "Tom's Targets" at page top. I think we're in for a week of weakness. Maybe longer.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,596.59    
 Monthly S1  7,890.90  294.31   
 Weekly S2  7,979.72  88.82   
 Monthly Pivot  8,068.28  88.56   
 Weekly S1  8,082.47  14.19   
 Daily S2  8,154.17  71.70   
 Weekly Pivot  8,164.06  9.89   
 Daily S1  8,169.69  5.63   
 Low  8,184.66  14.97   
 Close  8,185.21  0.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  8,200.18  14.97   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,202.24  2.06   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,207.67  5.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,213.09  5.43   
 Daily R1  8,215.70  2.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  8,224.00  8.30   
 High  8,230.67  6.67   
 Daily R2  8,246.19  15.52   
 Weekly R1  8,266.81  20.62   
 Weekly R2  8,348.40  81.60   
 Monthly R1  8,362.59  14.19   
 Monthly R2  8,539.97  177.38   

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