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Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Friday 2/27/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.
Click the link for a list of symbols from the table. The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz. There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 590 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is
trending since few consolidation patterns appear.
I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).
Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided.
The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.
In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/19/2015 and 02/26/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 24 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $63.98
1 Month avg volatility: $1.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.11 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.06%
Volume: 1,225,400 shares.
3 month avg: 1,570,955 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/11/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
Allstate Corp (ALL)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 144 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $71.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.62 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.51%
Volume: 1,903,400 shares.
3 month avg: 2,361,138 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/04/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $54.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.00 or 3.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.93%
Volume: 6,594,200 shares.
3 month avg: 8,723,762 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/18/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.
Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $25.64
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.12 or 9.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.19%
Volume: 365,900 shares.
3 month avg: 1,565,765 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/11/2015 to 02/26/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 12/09/2014. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/10/2015 and a 38% chance by 06/09/2015. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $10.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.08 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.41%
Volume: 1,745,900 shares.
3 month avg: 913,034 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/26/2015 to 02/24/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.
Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 27 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $14.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.68 or 5.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 3.71%
Volume: 5,199,000 shares.
3 month avg: 6,014,311 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/23/2014 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 21%. Break-even failure rate: 6%. Pullbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.
Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $57.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.72 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.14%
Volume: 3,878,600 shares.
3 month avg: 5,466,854 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/21/2015 to 02/24/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.
General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 190 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $139.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $134.54 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.32%
Volume: 1,059,600 shares.
3 month avg: 1,720,986 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/16/2014 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time. Average rise: 28%. Break-even failure rate: 19%. Throwbacks occur 52% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.
Lumber Liquidators, Inc. (LL)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 485 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $49.23
1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.77 or 13.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.76%
Volume: 5,730,000 shares.
3 month avg: 1,051,628 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce from 02/25/2015 to 02/26/2015
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc (MLM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 235 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $141.63
1 Month avg volatility: $3.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $133.35 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.38%
Volume: 703,400 shares.
3 month avg: 884,115 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
Newell Rubbermaid Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $39.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.05 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.91%
Volume: 998,300 shares.
3 month avg: 1,879,571 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $22.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.11 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.72%
Volume: 3,820,900 shares.
3 month avg: 5,201,345 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/17/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG (PEG)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 161 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $42.21
1 Month avg volatility: $0.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.10 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.93%
Volume: 3,750,200 shares.
3 month avg: 3,376,182 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/17/2015 to 02/17/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.
Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 32 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $48.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.37 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.36%
Volume: 1,024,700 shares.
3 month avg: 2,321,037 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/20/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 159 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $57.72
1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.38 or 4.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.69%
Volume: 168,400 shares.
3 month avg: 243,823 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/11/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
Stamps.com (STMP)
Industry: Internet
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $56.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.65 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.38%
Volume: 105,300 shares.
3 month avg: 166,015 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
Tuesday Morning Corp (TUES)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 308 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $18.95
1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.66 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -12.67%
Volume: 354,800 shares.
3 month avg: 510,242 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 02/09/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is downward 84% of the time. Average decline: 16%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Pullbacks occur 56% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.
Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 496 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $48.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.05 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.61%
Volume: 6,584,200 shares.
3 month avg: 8,999,528 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/18/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 23%. Break-even failure rate: 4%. Throwbacks occur 43% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.
MSCI Italy Index (EWI)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $14.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.36 or 3.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.82%
Volume: 949,800 shares.
3 month avg: 2,586,192 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 10/29/2014 to 02/20/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time. Average rise: 28%. Break-even failure rate: 19%. Throwbacks occur 52% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.
MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 494 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $13.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.29 or 2.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.59%
Volume: 772,000 shares.
3 month avg: 1,729,011 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 12/26/2014 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.
UltraShort 2x Real Estate ProShares (SRS)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 498 out of 582
2/26/15 close: $12.04
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.68 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -5.42%
Volume: 442,400 shares.
3 month avg: 172,543 shares. Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/28/2015 to 02/26/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.
Thursday 2/26/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq
The index dropped by 0.0% or -0.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 595 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.8% on 332 occasions.
Average loss was -0.9% on 263 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 79/133 or 59.4% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 28/58 or 48.3% of the time.
Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.
$ $ $
I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.
I drew two channel lines in red, hugging the price action for the last several days.
Notice that at A the index has broken out downward. Normally that doesn't mean much on the intraday scale since much of what happens is noise. But this time?
My guess is it's nothing to worry about. I'm still bullish and expect the index to continue to move up. If I'm wrong, then the index could drop to 4925 easily enough although it might take a few days.
$ $ $
The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences),
the area might act as support or resistance.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
| © 2015 ThePatternSite.com Metric | Value | Diff | Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? |
| Monthly S2 | 4,435.18 | | |
| Monthly S1 | 4,701.16 | 265.98 |
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| Monthly Pivot | 4,829.09 | 127.93 |
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| Weekly S2 | 4,858.55 | 29.46 |
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| Weekly S1 | 4,912.85 | 54.29 |
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| Weekly Pivot | 4,934.93 | 22.09 |
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| Daily S2 | 4,940.89 | 5.95 |
|
| Daily S1 | 4,954.01 | 13.13 |
|
| Low | 4,956.00 | 1.99 |
Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1. |
| Open | 4,960.36 | 4.36 |
|
| 61.8% Down from Intraday High | 4,966.79 | 6.43 |
|
| Close | 4,967.14 | 0.35 |
Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. |
| Daily Pivot | 4,969.13 | 1.99 |
Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close. |
| 50% Down from Intraday High | 4,970.12 | 0.99 |
Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. |
| 38.2% Down from Intraday High | 4,973.45 | 3.33 |
|
| Daily R1 | 4,982.25 | 8.80 |
|
| High | 4,984.24 | 1.99 |
Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1. |
| Weekly R1 | 4,989.23 | 4.99 |
|
| Daily R2 | 4,997.37 | 8.14 |
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| Weekly R2 | 5,011.31 | 13.95 |
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| Monthly R1 | 5,095.07 | 83.76 |
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| Monthly R2 | 5,223.00 | 127.93 |
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Wednesday 2/25/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?
This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.
Notice how the indicator has turned flat to down even as the index has continued to move up.
That's bearish divergence. It suggests the index is going to go lower, but the timing of this event is unknown.
If you look at the stock chart, the index started its climb weeks ago without pausing. That suggests it's overdue for a rest.
This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Written and copyright © 2015 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
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