Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/20/2024
  Indus: 43,408 +139.53 +0.3%  
  Trans: 17,002 -26.31 -0.2%  
  Utils: 1,055 +1.25 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 18,966 -21.33 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,917 +0.13 +0.0%  
YTD
 +15.2%  
 +6.9%  
 +19.7%  
 +26.3%  
 +24.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024  
  Up arrow46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
As of 11/20/2024
  Indus: 43,408 +139.53 +0.3%  
  Trans: 17,002 -26.31 -0.2%  
  Utils: 1,055 +1.25 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 18,966 -21.33 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,917 +0.13 +0.0%  
YTD
 +15.2%  
 +6.9%  
 +19.7%  
 +26.3%  
 +24.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024  
  Up arrow46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024
  Up arrow6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024

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Thursday 11/21/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.1% or -21.33 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 647 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 357 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 290 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 285/510 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 81/169 or 47.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, circled in green, we see a double top chart pattern. Those breakout down, and if they don't, they are not double tops. The index made a good drop to B.

The two diagonal, rising and diverging red trendlines highlight an ascending broadening wedge. Those breakout downward 52% of the time in a bull market. This one looks like price is about to pause and then resume moving upward.

At C, we have the dreaded multi-peak pattern. Those are tricky but are usually bears and I avoid them.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 171 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABM, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AES, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AMZN, AEO, AMGN, APH, AR, AON, ATR, ARCB, AGO, AVA, AZTA, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BRC, CBT, CDAY, CRL, CIEN, CI, CTAS, CLNE, CTSH, CMTL, GLW, CR, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, FANG, ^DJU, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EIX, EOG, EQT, EVRG, EVH, EXC, EXPI, EZPW, FDX, FLEX, FRD, GAP, IT, GE, GILD, GFS, GPRO, GFF, THG, HAYN, HP, HUM, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, INCY, IPAR, JKHY, KBH, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LANC, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MDT, META, MLI, NBR, NFLX, NEU, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PRU, QTWO, RMBS, RRC, RGA, RNG, ROP, RGLD, SAND, SCHW, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SHOP, SR, SPSC, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TDY, TXN, TXT, TTD, TSCO, UIS, VECO, VEEV, VRTX, V, VC, VMC, WRB, WSM, WWD, XEL, ITA, IEZ, FXL, IHF, IGV, EWJ, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PJP, PHO, XLF, GLD, XAR, UNG, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  17,523.27    
 Weekly S2  18,208.49  685.23   
 Monthly S1  18,244.70  36.21   
 Weekly S1  18,587.32  342.61   
 Daily S2  18,637.96  50.64   
 Low  18,724.39  86.43   
 Daily S1  18,802.05  77.66   
 Monthly Pivot  18,805.39  3.34   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,820.09  14.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,849.65  29.56   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,879.21  29.56   
 Daily Pivot  18,888.48  9.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  18,966.14  77.66   
 Open  18,971.31  5.17   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  18,974.91  3.60   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  18,976.69  1.78   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  19,052.57  75.88   
 Daily R2  19,139.00  86.43   
 Weekly R1  19,355.52  216.52   
 Monthly R1  19,526.82  171.31   
 Weekly R2  19,744.89  218.07   
 Monthly R2  20,087.51  342.61   

Wednesday 11/20/24. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is bearish, as the red vertical bar on the far right shows. Notice that it was neutral for almost two weeks before turning red.

Also notice that the mid to end July period shows a lot of neutral bars followed by a red one. Back then, it remained red (bearish) for about a week. Half that time, the index dropped and half it recovered while the CPI still remaining bearish.

Maybe that's what we can expect this time, but nothing is guaranteed.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

In this chart, I show the CPI at the bottom of the chart without the vertical bars hiding the indicator line.

The green lines connect the peaks on the CPI line to see where they line up with the index.

I drew violet bars which show where the index peaks after a CPI peak. Notice that the distance from the CPI peaking compared to the index peaking. In several, but not all, cases it's about a week. Maybe, in the future, you can use the timing to help determine when the CPI will show a corresponding peak in the index. Notice that the best timing (of about a week before an actual peak) corresponds to the CPI that has a sharp turn. July, October, and November are such peaks (gray circles). The wider CPI peaks tend to take longer before a index peak appears.

I don't know if this works because I only saw this relationship today, so keep that in mind, but maybe it can help you determine when the index is going to peak.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ABM, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, A, ALKS, ALGT, AMZN, AEO, AMWD, AME, APH, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ASH, AZTA, BMI, BERY, BBY, BIO, BRC, CBT, CLS, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CIEN, CI, CTAS, CSCO, CLNE, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CR, CRH, CCRN, CTS, CW, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, DOV, EXP, ECL, EME, EPAM, EXPI, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, FNV, FRD, GME, GAP, IT, GE, GILD, GS, GPRO, GFF, HAYN, HP, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INCY, IPAR, INTU, K, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LANC, LNC, RAMP, LPLA, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MDT, MLI, NBR, NEU, NKE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, ON, OUT, PAYX, PCTY, PETS, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PG, QTWO, KWR, RL, RMBS, RNG, RHI, ROP, RGLD, SAND, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, STR, SPSC, SUM, SNPS, TDY, TPX, TXN, TXT, TTD, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, UIS, UNM, VECO, VEEV, VRTX, VC, VMC, WMT, WSO, WPM, WWD, ITA, IYC, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IHF, IXN, EWK, EWI, THD, TUR, QLD, PPA, PBE, PHO, SSO, ROBO, GLD, XLB, XLK, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 11/19/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -55.39 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1401 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 733 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 668 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 296/545 or 54.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/117 or 46.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Watsco: WSO stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, AFL, APD, ALGT, AMZN, AEO, AMGN, APH, ACGL, ADM, ANET, BCPC, BBY, BIO, BKH, BRC, BLDR, BG, CENX, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CTSH, ED, GLW, COTY, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJU, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, EIX, EFX, EG, EVRG, EXC, EXPI, FIS, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FTV, FNV, GME, GIS, GS, HLIT, HL, HSIC, HSY, HNI, ILMN, IBKR, INTU, JAZZ, JNJ, KEYS, KMB, LRCX, LLY, META, NFG, NFLX, NTGR, NEU, NKE, JWN, NTNX, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PFE, PPL, PRU, RNG, CRM, SAND, SMTC, NOW, SHOP, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SR, TRGP, TECH, TMO, TJX, TG, UPS, UNM, VECO, VEEV, WRB, WMB, WDAY, IYM, IHE, FXL, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IXC, SLV, EWK, EIS, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PXJ, UNG, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,334.73    
 Monthly S1  41,862.17  1,527.43   
 Weekly S2  42,605.97  743.80   
 Weekly S1  42,997.79  391.81   
 Monthly Pivot  43,174.43  176.65   
 Daily S2  43,189.52  15.09   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  43,289.56  100.04   
 Low  43,297.57  8.01   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  43,377.06  79.49   
 Close  43,389.60  12.54   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  43,397.61  8.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  43,401.61  4.00   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  43,426.17  24.55   
 Open  43,431.89  5.72   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  43,497.65  65.76   
 High  43,505.66  8.01   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  43,605.70  100.04   
 Weekly Pivot  43,742.24  136.54   
 Weekly R1  44,134.05  391.81   
 Monthly R1  44,701.87  567.81   
 Weekly R2  44,878.51  176.64   
 Monthly R2  46,014.13  1,135.62   

 

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