Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 06/04/2020
  Indus: 26,282 +11.93 +0.0%  
  Trans: 9,575 +134.48 +1.4%  
  Utils: 814 -17.21 -2.1%  
  Nasdaq: 9,616 -67.10 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,112 -10.52 -0.3%  
YTD
-7.9%  
-12.2%  
-7.4%  
 +7.2%  
-3.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/29/2020  
  Up arrow27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow850 or 750 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow3,200 or 2,850 by 06/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/15/20
As of 06/04/2020
  Indus: 26,282 +11.93 +0.0%  
  Trans: 9,575 +134.48 +1.4%  
  Utils: 814 -17.21 -2.1%  
  Nasdaq: 9,616 -67.10 -0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,112 -10.52 -0.3%  
YTD
-7.9%  
-12.2%  
-7.4%  
 +7.2%  
-3.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/29/2020  
  Up arrow27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow850 or 750 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow3,200 or 2,850 by 06/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/15/20

 

April 2020 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 4/30/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 3.6% or 306.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 10 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.4% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 7 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 70.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/335 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 55/110 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I highlighted two chart patterns which appeared in the last few days.

The first is a down-sloping channel which appeared on Thursday and Friday. The more recent pattern is a broadening bottom.

Both broke out upward and posted nice gains.

It still looks like we're about to retrace some of the gains, perhaps when the jobs report comes out. I'd like to buy the dip.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  6,023.52    
 Monthly S1  7,469.12  1,445.59   
 Monthly Pivot  8,077.01  607.90   
 Weekly S2  8,135.88  58.87   
 Weekly S1  8,525.30  389.41   
 Weekly Pivot  8,605.10  79.81   
 Daily S2  8,686.74  81.64   
 Low  8,765.01  78.27   
 Daily S1  8,800.73  35.72   
 Open  8,802.70  1.97   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,838.45  35.75   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,861.13  22.69   
 Daily Pivot  8,878.99  17.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,883.82  4.83   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  8,914.71  30.89   
 High  8,957.26  42.55   
 Daily R1  8,992.98  35.72   
 Weekly R1  8,994.52  1.54   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  9,071.24  76.73   
 Weekly R2  9,074.32  3.08   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  9,522.61  448.28   
 Monthly R2  10,130.50  607.90   

Wednesday 4/29/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The last signal remains bullish as the vertical green bar indicates.

However, let's look at the price action.

The two red lines: The CPI line shows a lower peak even as the index shows a higher peak. That's bearish divergence.

What's that mean? The index will follow the CPI line downward. That sounds like a fact, but it's more of a suggestion. Divergence can last for months and when it does fulfill, the index might not drop much.

This is a nod to Christina who sent me charts shows rising wedges in the indices. This is a small one, shown here as the two converging lines drawn in red and blue.

Breakouts from rising wedges are downward 60% of the time.

So this chart is bearish using two indicators. What's the next chart say?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 67% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 78%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 481 stocks in my database are down an average of 31% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 36%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from the snapshot taken a week ago. Of course, these lines just follow the markets as they move.

From the March low, the red and blue lines have been trending higher.

Looking at this chart, I don't see anything bearish except that the narrow daily high-low range on the index has me concerned. Periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility, so I expect to see fireworks soon. With price struggling to continue higher today (Tuesday), I think it's reversal time.

Combined with the prior chart, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. (At least for one day).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/28/20. Slider Tutorial: Consecutive Closes

The index climbed by 1.5% or 358.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 159 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 81 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 78 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 202/348 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider tutorial featuring the consecutive closes. When you click the arrow button to show another slide, it may not look like the slide has changed but the captions below the chart will change. Look at the circles below the chart for another clue. It might help.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  16,153.32    
 Monthly S1  20,143.55  3,990.23   
 Monthly Pivot  22,203.88  2,060.33   
 Weekly S2  22,561.31  357.43   
 Weekly S1  23,347.54  786.24   
 Daily S2  23,693.64  346.10   
 Weekly Pivot  23,728.12  34.48   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  23,840.61  112.49   
 Open  23,866.15  25.54   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  23,913.71  47.56   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,980.82  67.11   
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,024.13  43.31   
 Daily Pivot  24,060.68  36.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,067.44  6.76   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  24,133.78  66.34   
 High  24,207.65  73.87   
 Daily R1  24,280.75  73.10   
 Daily R2  24,427.72  146.97   
 Weekly R1  24,514.35  86.63   
 Weekly R2  24,894.93  380.57   
 Monthly R1  26,194.11  1,299.18   
 Monthly R2  28,254.44  2,060.33   

Monday 4/27/20. Market Monday: Look Out Below!

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index, with such a high-low range (log scale), looks as if it moved horizontally since late October (horizontal red line). Then it plunged during the days of Covid-19. That pattern forms a diving board pattern.

The neat thing about diving boards is you have a clear target to aim for. In other words, if price was trending horizontally, forming a "normal" price for the index, there's a good chance the index will return to "normal."

Of course, reaching the target could take months or maybe a year (or longer), and the ride back to overhead resistance will be a bumpy one, as we've seen.

The index has also formed a diamond top. I show that pattern in green.

You might also view this as the start of a down-sloping channel because the diamond is pushed to one side. If the slide downward continues, then yes, the pattern will form a channel and not a lazy diamond.

What does all of this mean?

Price was trending upward in the week leading to the start of the diamond but there's no guarantee that it'll breakout upward when leaving the diamond.

New research says the breakout is upward 40% of the time in a bear market and 46% of the time in a bull market, but that's for individual stocks.

I suppose if you shorten the bottom up-sloping green line (which I've drawn as a yellowish brown line), it forms a better looking diamond. It means we've already seen a downward breakout from it. Hmm. The index has now pulled back to the breakout price and there's a 65% chance that the index will continue dropping. Again, those numbers are from the latest research.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 592.05 points.
Tuesday: Down 631.56 points.
Wednesday: Up 456.94 points.
Thursday: Up 39.44 points.
Friday: Up 260.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 467.22 points or 1.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 15.62 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 37.82 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     19.6% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     30.5% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     12.2% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     30.2% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     16.4% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     29.4% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/24/2020, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
36 bullish patterns,
481 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 85.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,265  23,520  23,673  23,928  24,081 
Weekly  22,442  23,109  23,609  24,275  24,775 
Monthly  16,034  19,905  22,084  25,955  28,135 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,773  2,805  2,824  2,856  2,875 
Weekly  2,669  2,753  2,811  2,895  2,953 
Monthly  1,949  2,393  2,636  3,080  3,323 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,402  8,518  8,581  8,697  8,759 
Weekly  8,042  8,339  8,512  8,808  8,981 
Monthly  5,930  7,282  7,984  9,336  10,037 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.7%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.0%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 48.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
42Flag, high and tight
8Diamond top
8Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Pipe top
5Big W
4Head-and-shoulders bottom
4Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
3Horn bottom
2Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Semiconductor2. Biotechnology
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Semiconductor
4. Drug4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Medical Services5. Medical Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/24/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 4.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ATSGTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/202004/23/2020Air Transport
AADiamond top      04/07/202004/21/2020Aerospace/Defense
AFGPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AXETriangle, symmetrical      03/26/202004/23/2020Electronics
APAFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/23/2020Petroleum (Producing)
AXSPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BBWFlag, high and tight      04/03/202004/23/2020Retail (Special Lines)
BLDRTriangle, symmetrical      03/16/202004/23/2020Retail Building Supply
^DJIDiamond top      04/09/202004/23/2020None
DRQTriangle, symmetrical      03/16/202004/20/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EIGIFlag, high and tight      03/20/202004/23/2020E-Commerce
REPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EVHFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/23/2020Healthcare Information
FCXDiamond top      04/08/202004/23/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
HONPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Aerospace/Defense
IPARTriangle, symmetrical      03/26/202004/22/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
IBKRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/07/202004/17/2020Securities Brokerage
LOWDiamond top      04/09/202004/23/2020Retail Building Supply
MTSIBroadening top      04/09/202004/23/2020Semiconductor
MPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Retail Store
MTRNFlag, high and tight      03/19/202004/23/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
MURFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/23/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
PTENHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/11/202004/20/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^GSPCDiamond top      04/14/202004/23/2020None
SWNFlag, high and tight      03/09/202004/23/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
VFCTriangle, symmetrical      03/23/202004/23/2020Apparel
WRBPipe top      04/06/202004/13/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/16/2020 and 04/23/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Transport Services Group (ATSG)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 207 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $19.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.91 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.26%
Volume: 533,500 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $7.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.41 or 29.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -66.11%
Volume: 20,698,300 shares. 3 month avg: 8,355,648 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 04/21/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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American Financial Group (AFG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $60.97
1 Month avg volatility: $5.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.04 or 21.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.40%
Volume: 502,100 shares. 3 month avg: 346,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Anixter International Inc (AXE)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $90.04
1 Month avg volatility: $2.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.22 or 6.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.24%
Volume: 190,100 shares. 3 month avg: 173,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 536 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $10.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.83 or 25.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -58.97%
Volume: 38,511,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $33.99
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.54 or 16.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -42.82%
Volume: 1,127,700 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc (BBW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $2.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.72 or 27.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -26.54%
Volume: 240,300 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $13.96
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.38 or 18.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.06%
Volume: 717,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/20 close: $23,515.26
1 Month avg volatility: $695.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25,277.18 or 7.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.60%
Volume: 393,565,200 shares. 3 month avg: 508,364,997 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 413 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $32.86
1 Month avg volatility: $2.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.00 or 23.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -29.95%
Volume: 447,800 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/20/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 461 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $2.64
1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.11 or 20.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -43.83%
Volume: 408,200 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 390 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $177.09
1 Month avg volatility: $10.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $201.89 or 14.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -36.03%
Volume: 340,000 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Evolent Health, Inc (EVH)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $6.82
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.07 or 25.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.64%
Volume: 800,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/27/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/27/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 339 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $7.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.21 or 18.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -40.47%
Volume: 21,008,000 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/08/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Honeywell International Inc (HON)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $134.68
1 Month avg volatility: $6.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $150.63 or 11.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.91%
Volume: 2,786,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $40.54
1 Month avg volatility: $4.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.57 or 22.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.24%
Volume: 178,700 shares. 3 month avg: 72,294 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 04/22/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 248 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $39.21
1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.88 or 14.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -15.89%
Volume: 1,238,500 shares. 3 month avg: 658,995 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 04/17/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Lowes Companies, Inc (LOW)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $94.90
1 Month avg volatility: $4.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $104.89 or 10.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.76%
Volume: 4,094,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $25.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.52 or 11.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -3.65%
Volume: 348,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 569 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $4.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.40 or 30.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -71.24%
Volume: 33,517,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Materion Corp (MTRN)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $47.42
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.29 or 19.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.24%
Volume: 278,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 533 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $9.17
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.66 or 27.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -65.78%
Volume: 5,969,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $2.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.44 or 50.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -72.48%
Volume: 12,454,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,925,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2020 to 04/20/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
4/23/20 close: $2,797.80
1 Month avg volatility: $76.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,997.61 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.40%
Volume: 2,919,383,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,198,800,148 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/14/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 8 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $3.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.43 or 20.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.45%
Volume: 18,177,200 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 469 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $54.35
1 Month avg volatility: $3.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.63 or 12.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.46%
Volume: 1,656,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,795,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 04/23/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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W. R. Berkley Corp (WRB)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 402 out of 583
4/23/20 close: $50.15
1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.30 or 14.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -27.42%
Volume: 988,400 shares. 3 month avg: 444,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 4/23/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.8% or 232.15 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 19 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 8 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 11 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/335 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/109 or 49.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing that caught my eye was the measured move down chart pattern. I show the outline of it in red but you can see how price followed the same contour (to the right of the red line).

Very pretty!

One of the things I like about measured moves is price often returns to the corrective phase. That's the retrace you see in the middle of the pattern. And you can see that the index opened on Wednesday right in the corrective phase. Clockwork.

See the above link for more details.

Today's move followed the blue trendline until the very end. If you look closely, you can see price dropping right at the end of the day.

My guess is it's a fake out. The market will gap open tomorrow (Thursday) and do what it wants regardless of how price moved at the end of today.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,893.49    
 Monthly S1  7,194.43  1,300.95   
 Weekly S2  7,766.19  571.76   
 Monthly Pivot  7,932.37  166.17   
 Weekly S1  8,130.79  198.42   
 Daily S2  8,346.31  215.52   
 Weekly Pivot  8,400.54  54.24   
 Low  8,404.54  4.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  8,420.84  16.30   
 Open  8,434.55  13.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,455.26  20.71   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,470.92  15.67   
 Daily Pivot  8,479.08  8.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,486.59  7.51   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  8,495.38  8.79   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  8,537.31  41.93   
 Daily R1  8,553.61  16.30   
 Daily R2  8,611.85  58.23   
 Weekly R1  8,765.14  153.29   
 Weekly R2  9,034.89  269.76   
 Monthly R1  9,233.31  198.42   
 Monthly R2  9,971.25  737.93   

Wednesday 4/22/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

It finally happened: The CPI indicator turned bearish. That's shown on the chart with the vertical red line. According to the chart, the signal happened yesterday (Monday), but that's not true. Yesterday the indicator was still bullish. That's the way the indicator works and why it's not a good trading vehicle. It can change what happened before for up to a week.

The question to ask now is, will the bearish signal last?

Today's (Tuesday's) reading is 0, meaning the indicator has dropped to the lowest it can go. That tells me it's going to take a big move up to pull it out of the red. If that doesn't happen for 3 days, then there's a good chance the signal will stay. After 7 days, it's guaranteed to stick. Between now and seven, the signal could disappear.

I've been expecting the markets to drop on bad earnings, but not on oil falling. That's what appears to have the markets rattled now.

This market is one surprise after another and it's hard to get a handle on it.

Let's check what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 78% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 72%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 482 stocks in my database are down an average of 37% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 33%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 48% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines have deteriorated from a week ago, but they move in concert with the index.

There's not much more to say. The red line is the more sensitive of the two. It hit its low along with the market in mid March and has recovered since then (until Monday).

So there you have it. The CPI has signaled a possible downturn in the markets. These two lines are also turning lower. That's not a good sign. Maybe what we'll see is instead of the markets recovering, they just stay in a trading range, near the current low, for a year (probably longer) until the Covid pandemic goes away. Even if we get a vaccine tomorrow, you can't give it to 325 million people in a week or a month.

So recovery is going to take a long time. Some will party as if there's no tomorrow and for some of them, they'll be right.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/21/20. Slider Quiz!

The index dropped by -2.4% or -592.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 60 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.6% on 33 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 27 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 202/347 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/79 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the extended V-tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,992.21    
 Monthly S1  19,821.32  3,829.12   
 Monthly Pivot  22,042.77  2,221.44   
 Weekly S2  22,501.14  458.37   
 Weekly S1  23,075.79  574.65   
 Daily S2  23,313.94  238.15   
 Daily S1  23,482.19  168.25   
 Low  23,627.19  145.00   
 Close  23,650.44  23.25   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  23,670.00  19.56   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  23,795.44  125.44   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,811.12  15.68   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,867.94  56.82   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,924.76  56.82   
 Daily R1  23,963.69  38.93   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  24,095.10  131.41   
 High  24,108.69  13.59   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  24,244.65  135.96   
 Daily R2  24,276.94  32.29   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  24,838.86  561.92   
 Monthly R1  25,871.88  1,033.02   
 Monthly R2  28,093.33  2,221.44   

Monday 4/20/20. Market Monday: Recovery

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow utility index on the daily scale, starting from the beginning of this year. I wanted to highlight how the indices have recovered.

The horizontal red line shows the close of last year. The scale is logarithmic, so objects may seem closer than they really are. Smiley

Anyway, you can see how much the index has rebounded and how much we have yet to go. The utilities are down 6.3% for the year. The Nasdaq is even closer, off just 3.6%. The S&P 500 is off 11% and the Dow industrials are down 15.1%.

I show a head-and-shoulders bottom with the left shoulder (LS), head (guess), and right shoulder (RS) conveniently labeled.

The pattern confirmed as valid when the index closed above the green line. That was the buy signal, but it comes late in the recovery.

Of course utility stocks dropped along with the market but did not cut their dividends (at least so far as I know) like they did in 2008. That means yields have been tasty when the stock's bottomed.

Now many of them have recovered or are on their way to recovery.

What's the future look like? Hard to tell. The markets are ignoring bad news, which is a sign of recovery. However corporate earnings season is just starting and this quarter will be difficult but the coming quarters will be even worse, I think. So individual stocks will be hammered. That may well send the indices skittering lower, too.

I know that some stocks are still off by 50% or more from their highs of last year, so bargains abound. Companies which miss earnings will drop, allowing you to buy them at a price better than what you're seeing now. All you need is the cash and courage to buy.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a bird house.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 328.6 points.
Tuesday: Up 558.99 points.
Wednesday: Down 445.41 points.
Thursday: Up 33.33 points.
Friday: Up 704.81 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 523.12 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 496.56 points or 6.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 84.74 points or 3.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     18.0% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     33.1% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     12.1% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     30.4% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     15.3% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     31.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/17/2020, the CPI had:

5 bearish patterns,
60 bullish patterns,
545 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 92.3%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,661  23,952  24,108  24,399  24,555 
Weekly  22,698  23,470  23,867  24,639  25,036 
Monthly  16,190  20,216  22,240  26,267  28,291 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,813  2,844  2,862  2,892  2,910 
Weekly  2,667  2,771  2,825  2,929  2,983 
Monthly  1,961  2,418  2,649  3,105  3,336 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,479  8,564  8,617  8,703  8,756 
Weekly  7,818  8,234  8,452  8,868  9,086 
Monthly  5,945  7,298  7,984  9,336  10,023 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks up 34.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks up 36.3%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 56.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 36.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month up 48.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
35Flag, high and tight
32Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
17Pipe bottom
6Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
5Big W
4Horn bottom
3Head-and-shoulders bottom
2Triple bottom
2Diamond top
2Double Bottom, Adam and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Healthcare Information
2. Biotechnology2. Biotechnology
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Medical Services
5. Medical Services5. Drug

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/17/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      03/20/202004/16/2020Medical Services
ADTNFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Telecom. Equipment
BIGFlag, high and tight      03/16/202004/16/2020Retail Store
DECKFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Shoe
DODead-cat bounce      04/16/202004/16/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EQTFlag, high and tight      02/27/202004/16/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
FISDiamond top      03/25/202004/16/2020Computer Software and Svcs
GILDDiamond top      02/24/202004/16/2020Biotechnology
NSPFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Human Resources
NXGNFlag, high and tight      03/16/202004/15/2020Healthcare Information
NUSFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
PRFTFlag      04/09/202004/16/2020IT Services
PCGFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Electric Utility (West)
WMBFlag, high and tight      03/19/202004/16/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
WSMFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/16/2020Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/09/2020 and 04/16/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Accelerate Diagnostics Inc (AXDX)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $9.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.26 or 30.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -46.63%
Volume: 467,900 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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ADTRAN Inc (ADTN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 251 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $8.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.53 or 21.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -16.18%
Volume: 295,700 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $18.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.86 or 20.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -34.96%
Volume: 1,511,300 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/16/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 206 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $139.26
1 Month avg volatility: $10.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.01 or 17.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.53%
Volume: 258,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 583 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $0.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.23 or 151.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -87.63%
Volume: 23,773,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/16/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Equitable Resources, Inc (EQT)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $12.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.16 or 20.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 17.52%
Volume: 9,167,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 177 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $122.99
1 Month avg volatility: $7.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $137.61 or 11.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.58%
Volume: 5,082,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/25/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $76.54
1 Month avg volatility: $4.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.36 or 11.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.79%
Volume: 11,186,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,272,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/24/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $39.51
1 Month avg volatility: $3.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.83 or 22.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -54.08%
Volume: 459,600 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/13/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/12/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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NextGen Healthcare Inc (NXGN)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 438 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $10.10
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.47 or 26.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.15%
Volume: 464,000 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/15/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc (NUS)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $23.40
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.42 or 21.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.90%
Volume: 637,000 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Perficient, Inc (PRFT)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 300 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $30.66
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.94 or 25.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.45%
Volume: 375,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 17 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $11.13
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.96 or 19.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.39%
Volume: 5,488,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $16.59
1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.64 or 17.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.06%
Volume: 10,485,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,990,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/16/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 587
4/16/20 close: $48.60
1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.70 or 18.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.82%
Volume: 1,423,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Thursday 4/16/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Lower?

The index dropped by -1.4% or -122.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 107 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 43 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 64 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 59.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 188/335 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/108 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index has followed a multi-day trendline higher, as the red up-sloping line shows.

It might be hard to see but at the upper end of that trendline, the index has pierced it (going down). That's usually not a big deal, especially on the intraday charts when the opening bell can shove price gapping higher or lower.

So I'm going to take a guess here.

Using the measure rule for trendlines, I drew a vertical green line from late in Tuesday's session to the trendline directly below (A). If the rule works, I expect the index to drop following the depth of the green line at B.

So look for the Nasdaq to drop again on Thursday, but that's a guess. The pre-market trading will give a hint to the day's session, at least for the first few minutes...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,898.05    
 Monthly S1  7,145.61  1,247.57   
 Weekly S2  7,469.51  323.89   
 Monthly Pivot  7,878.99  409.48   
 Weekly S1  7,931.34  52.36   
 Weekly Pivot  8,079.63  148.28   
 Daily S2  8,233.01  153.38   
 Low  8,308.79  75.78   
 Daily S1  8,313.09  4.30   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  8,355.96  42.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,368.33  12.37   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,386.72  18.39   
 Daily Pivot  8,388.88  2.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,393.18  4.30   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,405.12  11.94   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  8,464.66  59.54   
 Daily R1  8,468.96  4.30   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  8,541.46  72.50   
 Daily R2  8,544.75  3.28   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,689.75  145.00   
 Monthly R1  9,126.55  436.81   
 Monthly R2  9,859.93  733.37   

Wednesday 4/15/20. Indicators: Bullish!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator (CPI) turned bullish in late March as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

And the market responded. It's been upward since then, well, not exactly. There was a significant dip in April but that didn't turn the indicator bearish.

The current read for the CPI is 100, which is the maximum.

My only concern is the rising wedge pattern shown by the up-sloping and converging trendlines. Rising wedges often breakout downward.

What? Me worry?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 72% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 81%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 487 stocks in my database are down an average of 34% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 39%.
The peak was 12% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 48% on 03/23/2020.

The lines are synchronized. All of them are trending higher. The hint of bearish divergence shown last week someone took an iron to and smoothed out the wrinkles. It's gone, replaced by a continued bullish recovery.

The above numbers show the improvement from a week ago, too.

So almost everything looks peachy for a continued advance. And that means the index is about to drop. I keep warning: Earnings are coming! Earnings are coming!

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/14/20. Slider Quiz!

The index dropped by -1.4% or -328.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 197 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 81 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 116 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 58.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 202/347 or 58.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the V top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,752.20    
 Monthly S1  19,071.49  4,319.28   
 Weekly S2  20,715.77  1,644.28   
 Weekly S1  22,053.27  1,337.50   
 Monthly Pivot  22,532.93  479.66   
 Daily S2  22,791.44  258.50   
 Weekly Pivot  23,031.13  239.69   
 Daily S1  23,091.10  59.97   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  23,095.35  4.25   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,325.92  230.57   
 Close  23,390.77  64.85   
 Daily Pivot  23,395.02  4.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,397.14  2.12   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,468.36  71.22   
 Daily R1  23,694.68  226.32   
 Open  23,698.93  4.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  23,698.93  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  23,998.60  299.67   
 Weekly R1  24,368.63  370.03   
 Weekly R2  25,346.49  977.86   
 Monthly R1  26,852.22  1,505.73   
 Monthly R2  30,313.66  3,461.45   

Monday 4/13/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S an dP 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I swapped the direction of Tom's Targets (grid at page top) because it's obvious the indices are recovering. Even though I expect earnings reports to send them lower, it's hard to fight the tape, as they say.

Another factor is that the market is ignoring bad news (Bad jobs report and the market goes up but the FED might have had something to do with it). Ignoring bad news is a sure sign it's put in a bottom.

So, until earnings begin to pull the markets back down, I have the targets pointing up. And that might also be a clue that the markets are going to tumble, as a kind of contrary indicator. That is, when Tom says the markets will rise, they'll drop. If he says they'll drop, then they'll rise.

Turning to the chart, I show two areas circled in red and blue. Those are resistance and support areas. It's where I put the mid April targets for the index (at least that's what I think I did.)

Have a good holiday weekend. Stay safe and healthy. Remember Covid-19 isn't over until we have a vaccine.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 1627.46 points.
Tuesday: Down 26.13 points.
Wednesday: Up 779.71 points.
Thursday: Up 285.8 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 2666.84 points or 12.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 780.5 points or 10.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 301.17 points or 12.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     19.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     30.2% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     17.1% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     23.0% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     17.8% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     27.3% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/10/2020, the CPI had:

0 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
0 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  23,239  23,479  23,744  23,984  24,249 
Weekly  20,825  22,272  23,141  24,588  25,456 
Monthly  14,862  19,291  22,642  27,071  30,423 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,734  2,762  2,790  2,818  2,846 
Weekly  2,484  2,637  2,728  2,881  2,972 
Monthly  1,862  2,326  2,656  3,120  3,450 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,996  8,075  8,151  8,230  8,307 
Weekly  7,390  7,772  8,000  8,382  8,610 
Monthly  5,818  6,986  7,799  8,967  9,780 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 46.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 54.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.6%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 56.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 48.9%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.7%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
49Dead-cat bounce
25Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
24Flag, high and tight
14Pipe bottom
2Triangle, symmetrical
2Broadening wedge, descending
2Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
2Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
1Double Top, Adam and Adam
1Diamond bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Short ETFs
2. Biotechnology2. Healthcare Information
3. Semiconductor3. Biotechnology
4. Medical Services4. Semiconductor
5. Drug5. Drug

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/10/20. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site. I think this only works for US based shoppers.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Thursday 4/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.6% or 203.64 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 26 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 15 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.1% on 11 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 187/334 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/108 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red trendline under the bottom of prices for the last 3 days. The index follows the uptrend quite nicely. It did pierce the trendline once today (Wednesday or at the close Tuesday), but it recovered.

So I'm wondering how long with the uptrend last?

To answer that, I looked at the historical record. Voila!

The blue trendline, although not as clean as the red line, lasts for 2.5 days. It also has price poking though the bottom early on, during the first day of the rise.

So I'm thinking the uptrend will stop on Thursday and the index will drop ~250 points, to 7850. How do I know? I'm using the trendline measure rule which is essentially the largest distance from peak to trendline directly below. That happened at Tuesday's open.

The above probabilities say I'm wrong. Indeed, the indices are flashing a buy signal based on an ugly double bottom on the daily charts. If the Dow futures are down, then I'll wait for another day before I nibble (buy the dip).

Having written that, I still think the market will tumble on bad earnings reports. If not this quarter, then next quarter.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,491.98    
 Monthly S1  6,791.44  1,299.46   
 Weekly S2  7,160.91  369.47   
 Weekly S1  7,625.90  465.00   
 Weekly Pivot  7,753.11  127.20   
 Daily S2  7,823.27  70.16   
 Low  7,901.94  78.67   
 Monthly Pivot  7,930.88  28.94   
 Daily S1  7,957.08  26.20   
 Open  7,975.72  18.64   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,983.11  7.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,008.19  25.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,033.26  25.07   
 Daily Pivot  8,035.76  2.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,090.90  55.14   
 High  8,114.43  23.53   
 Daily R1  8,169.57  55.14   
 Weekly R1  8,218.10  48.53   
 Daily R2  8,248.25  30.14   
 Weekly R2  8,345.31  97.06   
 Monthly R1  9,230.34  885.03   
 Monthly R2  10,369.78  1,139.44   

Wednesday 4/8/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart looks like the one I drew in the forecast update for 2020 a week ago. The lines are different, so let's talk about them.

The indicator at the bottom of this chart buried its head into the ceiling twice. The horizontal red line connects those two peaks.

Now look at the index. It shows two peaks moving upward. That's bearish divergence. It suggests weakness in the index, but it doesn't say when the index will tumble.

Let's look at the next chart to see what it says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 83% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 84%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 487 stocks in my database are down an average of 38% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 39%.
The peak was 12% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 48% on 03/23/2020.

This chart also shows divergence, except it's focused on the blue and red indicator lines. The red indicator line at the bottom of the chart sees a higher peak as denoted by the red up-sloping line.

The blue indicator line slopes downward (the red line shows the slope, but it's drawn a bit steeper than it really is. Sorry about that). The index agrees with the red indicator line. It slopes upward, too. Is it two against one?

I haven't see this before, where the two indicator lines diverge. The red indicator line is the more sensitive of the two lines and it shows convergence, not divergence with the index.

Combined with the prior chart, I'd say Wednesday is going to be a down day (based more on the trend reversal intraday in the index than anything else), but I also expect weakness when earnings reports come out. And here's a sobering thought. Covid-19 won't end until there's a vaccine in public distribution. And that could mean well into next year before that happens. Until then, we'll have to limit exposure.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/7/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the V top chart pattern.

$ $ $

In Texas, essential businesses (to remain open) are liquor stores, churches, and gun shops. Craft stores such as Michaels Stores and Hobby Lobby have tried to stay open, justifying that they were essential businesses because they sold supplies to make masks. Dallas sent one Hobby Lobby store a cease and desist order to close immediately.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,776.64    
 Monthly S1  18,228.31  4,451.68   
 Weekly S2  20,219.78  1,991.46   
 Daily S2  21,295.87  1,076.09   
 Weekly S1  21,449.88  154.01   
 Low  21,693.63  243.75   
 Open  21,693.63  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  21,965.13  271.50   
 Daily S1  21,987.93  22.80   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,109.94  122.01   
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,238.54  128.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,367.14  128.60   
 Daily Pivot  22,385.69  18.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  22,665.33  279.64   
 Close  22,679.99  14.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  22,783.45  103.46   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  23,077.75  294.30   
 Weekly R1  23,195.23  117.48   
 Daily R2  23,475.51  280.28   
 Weekly R2  23,710.48  234.97   
 Monthly R1  27,117.00  3,406.53   
 Monthly R2  31,554.02  4,437.01   

Monday 4/6/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the monthly scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the monthly scale, which is unusual for me. Most times I stick to the daily scale except under certain conditions. This time, I wanted to put the recent movement into context, hence the monthly scale.

Many people have written in the past few months about the indices forming a broadening top. And that's what we see here.

I've outlined the pattern in red. It's not ideal. That's clear when the spike at B plunges through the bottom line and the top line shows the index missing it at A.

It's like the index used the missing momentum at A to plunge farther below the line at B. Hmm.

Regardless, what does a broadening top tell us about coming price movement? Answer: Not much.

If you switch to the weekly scale, you get a hint of a partial rise. It's even more pronounced on the daily chart.

A partial rise in a broadening top sees price climb upward for a time, then round over and drop to the bottom trendline. Then price just keeps on going down, staging an immediate downward breakout from the chart pattern.

A partial rise correctly predicts a downward breakout from a broadening top 52% of the time. That's random, so it's not much help. However, it does give us a warning.

Will the index breakout downward? I doubt it, but covid-19 has fooled me before so my guess is as good as yours.

I do expect the markets to tumble but we're a long way from puncturing that lower trendline. With current volatility, however, that's a day's move down!

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 690.7 points.
Tuesday: Down 410.32 points.
Wednesday: Down 973.65 points.
Thursday: Up 469.93 points.
Friday: Down 360.91 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 584.25 points or 2.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 129.3 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 52.82 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     28.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     15.6% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     25.1% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     11.2% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     26.7% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     13.5% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/03/2020, the CPI had:

42 bearish patterns,
9 bullish patterns,
788 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 17.6%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,536  20,794  21,121  21,379  21,706 
Weekly  19,677  20,365  21,423  22,110  23,168 
Monthly  13,234  17,143  22,123  26,032  31,012 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,417  2,453  2,496  2,531  2,574 
Weekly  2,332  2,410  2,526  2,604  2,720 
Monthly  1,661  2,075  2,606  3,020  3,551 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,163  7,268  7,393  7,498  7,624 
Weekly  6,922  7,147  7,514  7,740  8,106 
Monthly  5,253  6,313  7,692  8,752  10,131 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.5%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months down 7.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.8%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months down 3.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 8.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
76Dead-cat bounce
25Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
23Flag, high and tight
9Vertical move down
6Double Top, Eve and Adam
6Pipe bottom
4V bottoms
2Triangle, symmetrical
2Double Top, Adam and Adam
2Double Bottom, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Healthcare Information2. Healthcare Information
3. Biotechnology3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor4. Biotechnology
5. Drug5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/3/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 1.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DVNFlag, high and tight      03/18/202004/02/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
GPROTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/202004/01/2020Electronics
MRKBroadening wedge, descending      02/04/202003/31/2020Drug
OLNTriangle, symmetrical      03/19/202004/01/2020Chemical (Basic)
OMCLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/20/202003/27/2020Healthcare Information
PKEPipe bottom      03/16/202003/23/2020Chemical (Specialty)
SAIADiamond bottom      03/09/202003/31/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SUMFlag, high and tight      03/23/202003/31/2020Cement and Aggregates
TDCRoof, inverted      02/28/202004/02/2020Computer Software and Svcs
VEEVPipe bottom      03/16/202003/23/2020Healthcare Information
VMCPipe bottom      03/16/202003/23/2020Cement and Aggregates

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/26/2020 and 04/02/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $7.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.60 or 41.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -70.00%
Volume: 24,071,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,704,349 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/02/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $2.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.69 or 28.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.85%
Volume: 4,116,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/01/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Merck and Co., Inc. (MRK)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 125 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $76.87
1 Month avg volatility: $4.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.93 or 14.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.48%
Volume: 12,254,900 shares. 3 month avg: 11,487,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 03/31/2020
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Olin Corp. (OLN)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $11.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.93 or 30.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.68%
Volume: 1,999,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/01/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Omnicell, Inc (OMCL)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $67.31
1 Month avg volatility: $5.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.19 or 26.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.63%
Volume: 445,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/20/2020 to 03/27/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Park Electrochemical (PKE)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 309 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $12.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.32 or 20.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.22%
Volume: 191,400 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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SAIA Inc (SAIA)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 361 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $64.18
1 Month avg volatility: $7.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.51 or 26.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.08%
Volume: 282,400 shares. 3 month avg: 163,825 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/31/2020
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 433 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $13.14
1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.72 or 33.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.02%
Volume: 1,681,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/31/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Teradata Corp (TDC)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 379 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $20.44
1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.34 or 19.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.65%
Volume: 1,613,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,378,918 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/28/2020 to 04/02/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/08/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/08/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 57 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $156.16
1 Month avg volatility: $10.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $126.55 or 19.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.02%
Volume: 1,278,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 334 out of 590
4/2/20 close: $107.30
1 Month avg volatility: $9.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.14 or 19.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.48%
Volume: 2,667,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Thursday 4/2/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -4.4% or -339.52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 7 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 3.6% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.8% on 4 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 187/334 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/107 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much going on in this pic. The index pierced the red up-sloping trendline. Outlined in green is a falling wedge chart pattern. I was hoping to show a channel, but...

Falling wedges can breakout in any direction but it's usually upward. However, as dire as things are now and predictions coming that covid-19 news will get worse, I expect a downward breakout.

That would agree with the above probabilities, too.

On the daily chart, I'm still expecting the index to drop to the value of the March low and I'm concerned it could go lower if the unemployment rate hits as high as 32%, which is what one news source (PBS Newshour) cited. Ouch. That's higher than the 1929 depression, according to them. Just wait until corporate earnings come out this month and in 3 months from now.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,080.17    
 Weekly S2  6,088.87  1,008.71   
 Monthly S1  6,220.37  131.50   
 Weekly S1  6,724.73  504.35   
 Daily S2  7,145.25  420.53   
 Daily S1  7,252.92  107.66   
 Weekly Pivot  7,267.27  14.36   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  7,301.98  34.71   
 Close  7,360.58  58.60   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,402.98  42.40   
 Daily Pivot  7,409.64  6.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,434.17  24.53   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  7,459.50  25.33   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,465.37  5.87   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  7,517.31  51.93   
 High  7,566.37  49.06   
 Daily R2  7,674.03  107.66   
 Monthly Pivot  7,771.63  97.59   
 Weekly R1  7,903.13  131.50   
 Weekly R2  8,445.67  542.55   
 Monthly R1  8,911.83  466.16   
 Monthly R2  10,463.09  1,551.25   

Wednesday 4/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast April Update

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for March were...

0. Health care (-4%),
1. Consumer staples (-6%),
2. Information technology (-9%),
3. Utilities (-10%),
4. Communication services (-12%),
5. Consumer discretionary (-13%),
6. Materials (-14%),
7. Real estate (-15%),
8. Industrials (-19%),
9. Financials (-21%),
10. and dead last is energy (-35%).

I rounded off the percentages.

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for April.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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