Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/04/2025
  Indus: 47,851 -31.96 -0.1%  
  Trans: 17,066 +35.21 +0.2%  
  Utils: 1,088 -2.01 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 23,505 +51.05 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 6,857 +7.40 +0.1%  
YTD
 +12.5%  
 +7.4%  
 +10.7%  
 +21.7%  
 +16.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/28/2025  
  Down arrow46,500 or 49,000 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow17,400 or 15,800 by 12/15/2025
  Down arrow1,080 or 1,150 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow24,000 or 22,300 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow7,000 or 6,600 by 12/15/2025
As of 12/04/2025
  Indus: 47,851 -31.96 -0.1%  
  Trans: 17,066 +35.21 +0.2%  
  Utils: 1,088 -2.01 -0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 23,505 +51.05 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 6,857 +7.40 +0.1%  
YTD
 +12.5%  
 +7.4%  
 +10.7%  
 +21.7%  
 +16.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/28/2025  
  Down arrow46,500 or 49,000 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow17,400 or 15,800 by 12/15/2025
  Down arrow1,080 or 1,150 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow24,000 or 22,300 by 12/15/2025
  Up arrow7,000 or 6,600 by 12/15/2025

December 2025 Headlines

Archives


Friday 12/5/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AYI, ALK, AMZN, AXP, AFG, AON, ANET, AVA, BA, BRC, BMY, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CE, CTAS, CLNE, CNA, CL, CMTL, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, D, DOV, EMN, EME, EOG, EPAM, EQT, FDS, FAST, FIS, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FDP, GIS, HLIT, HTLD, HD, HOV, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, KELYA, KFRC, RAMP, LPLA, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MKTX, MA, META, NBR, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NUS, PTEN, KWR, RJF, RGA, RHI, ROK, RGLD, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, SPSC, TPR, TGT, TEVA, TDG, TG, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, UIS, UPS, UNM, WU, WPM, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, DDM, AIQ, BOTZ, ILF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, DBA, ROBO, XLF, XLI, XLU, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriangle, ascending      10/24/202512/02/2025Diversified Co.
ALKPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Air Transport
AAHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Aerospace/Defense
AEPHead-and-shoulders top      11/10/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
AMGNTriangle, ascending      11/13/202512/04/2025Biotechnology
ARUgly double bottom      10/30/202511/21/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
APAUgly double bottom      11/05/202511/21/2025Petroleum (Producing)
AZTATriple bottom      11/03/202511/18/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BAPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Aerospace/Defense
BMYUgly double bottom      10/29/202511/20/2025Drug
BBWDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Retail (Special Lines)
CPBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202511/21/2025Food Processing
CRLHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Biotechnology
CLPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Household Products
COPTriple bottom      10/16/202511/25/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
CXWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/06/202511/18/2025Industrial Services
CCRNDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Human Resources
FANGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/16/202511/05/2025Petroleum (Producing)
DPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Electric Utility (East)
DUKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/07/202511/18/2025Electric Utility (East)
EOGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/07/202511/24/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
EQTPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
ELHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
EVRGBroadening bottom      11/12/202512/04/2025Electric Utility (Central)
EXCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/17/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (East)
FLSPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025Machinery
FORMPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025Semiconductor
FWRDPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FCXTriple bottom      11/06/202511/21/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
HLITPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Telecom. Equipment
HOVDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Homebuilding
HUMPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Medical Services
JBLUBig W      10/30/202511/18/2025Air Transport
KBHDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/09/202511/18/2025Homebuilding
LHXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/24/202512/03/2025Aerospace/Defense
LAMRDiamond top      11/12/202511/20/2025Advertising
MTRNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/30/202511/18/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
NBRPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NWLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/04/202511/20/2025Household Products
NIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
OLNHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Chemical (Basic)
PTENPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PCGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/21/202511/12/2025Electric Utility (West)
PSTGDead-cat bounce      12/03/202512/03/2025Computers and Peripherals
RTXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/28/202511/11/2025Aerospace/Defense
SKYWBroadening bottom      10/09/202512/03/2025Air Transport
SRHead-and-shoulders top      10/24/202511/28/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
TXTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/23/202511/20/2025Diversified Co.
MZTITriple top      11/05/202511/21/2025Food Processing
UISPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Computers and Peripherals
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/05/202511/20/2025Air Transport
WERNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/31/202511/21/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WUPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Financial Services

 

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Thursday 12/4/25. Bitcoin Fall

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.2% or 40.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 737 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 426 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 311 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 302/549 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/181 or 48.1% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Bitcoin on the daily chart.

I show a picture of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale, I think.

I've heard about the drop in BTC so I thought I'd take a look.

Let's run through some of the patterns. Pictured on the far left of the chart are the twin peaks of a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the cryptocurrency closes below the horizontal red line (that's below the lowest valley between the two peaks). When that happened, the squiggles on the chart turned into a real chart pattern. The double top predicted a decline, which is what we see.

The currency dropped from about 110,000 to 75,000, or about 32%.

At C, buyers flocked into the currency (or sellers stopped selling). The currency made a nice climb up to another double top.

After that, a head-and-shoulders top (LS-A-RS) signaled a reversal. The currency peaked at A, at about $125,000 and made a nice drop to bottom at B, almost 80,000 for a tidy loss of 36% in less than two months.

We're seeing a bounce now, as if this were an event pattern called a dead-cat bounce. If that pattern holds true, then expect the currency to drop below the low at B, putting it at about 65,600 (18% below B, on average). That will not be a nice Christmas present.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, AYI, AFL, ALK, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AXP, APA, ANET, ASH, AVY, AVA, BIIB, BA, BMY, BRKR, BG, CRL, CMTL, COTY, CRH, DDS, D, DOV, BOOM, EIX, EOG, EQT, EL, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FIS, FISV, FLS, FMC, FTV, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GAP, GES, HLIT, HP, HSIC, HD, HOV, IDA, IDXX, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, JAZZ, KELYA, LAMR, LEN, LNC, LPLA, MTSI, MANH, MKTX, MSFT, MOS, MUR, NBR, OXY, OMCL, ORCL, OXM, PTEN, PYPL, PFG, PRU, PSTG, KWR, RJF, REGN, RHI, ROP, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, TGT, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TG, UIS, UNM, VC, WRB, WU, WWD, XEL, IYK, IYC, IEZ, DDM, FXL, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, EWA, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLF, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLU, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,002.42    
 Weekly S2  22,211.86  1,209.44   
 Monthly S1  22,228.26  16.39   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  22,832.98  604.72   
 Weekly Pivot  23,099.38  266.41   
 Monthly Pivot  23,124.12  24.74   
 Daily S2  23,180.52  56.39   
 Low  23,271.83  91.31   
 Open  23,315.58  43.75   
 Daily S1  23,317.30  1.72   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,358.96  41.66   
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,385.88  26.92   
 Daily Pivot  23,408.62  22.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,412.79  4.18   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  23,454.09  41.29   
 High  23,499.93  45.84   
 Daily R1  23,545.40  45.47   
 Daily R2  23,636.72  91.31   
 Weekly R1  23,720.50  83.78   
 Weekly R2  23,986.90  266.41   
 Monthly R1  24,349.96  363.05   
 Monthly R2  25,245.82  895.87   

Wednesday 12/3/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish about a week ago, just as the index bottomed. The index recovered and has now formed a chart pattern called a triple top. It hasn't confirmed as a valid pattern yet, so it could be squiggles on the price chart.

To confirm it, the index would have to close below the lowest valley between the three peaks. The most recent green bar points to the confirmation price.

The CPI reads 73.1, which is bullish but just above the neutral zone below 65.

Given that the trend is down, I'd expect the CPI to drop into the neutral zone. It might stay there or continue lower to post a bearish signal. (It could rise, of course, but I think weakness is coming).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALK, AMZN, AEO, APH, APOG, ATR, ANET, AIZ, AVNT, BCPC, BSET, BBY, BA, BAH, BSX, BG, CBT, CALM, CAL, CPB, CDAY, CF, CMTL, COST, COTY, CRH, XRAY, DOV, EMN, EQT, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GAP, GES, HLIT, HOLX, HD, IDA, NSP, ITGR, IRM, JAZZ, KMT, LPLA, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MSFT, MOS, NBR, NFLX, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OMCL, OR, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PG, PRU, PSTG, QTWO, KWR, RL, REGN, RNG, RHI, RGLD, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWX, TRGP, TGT, TDC, TER, TMO, TDG, UIS, WSO, WU, WMB, WWD, XEL, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, IBB, DBA, XAR, XLK, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/2/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.9% or -427.09 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 451 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 220 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 231 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 51.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 324/590 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 62/126 or 49.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Peru Copper: PCU stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AA, AEO, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ASH, BOOT, BSX, BMY, BLDR, CAL, CPB, CE, COR, CDAY, CRL, CI, CINF, CXW, CRH, CROX, ^DJU, EMN, EIX, EQT, EL, FDS, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FWRD, FNV, GES, HTLD, JBHT, IEX, INCY, IBP, IRM, KALU, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LNC, LXU, MTSI, M, OLN, ASGN, OR, PGR, PRU, RHI, ROST, RGLD, SEE, SHOP, SNPS, TPR, TMO, RIG, TRV, TG, WEX, WWW, IYM, IDU, FXL, IAT, SLV, IGE, EWW, EWS, EZA, TUR, EWU, PHO, GLD, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,447.30    
 Weekly S2  45,406.61  959.30   
 Monthly S1  45,868.32  461.71   
 Weekly S1  46,347.97  479.65   
 Daily S2  47,007.24  659.27   
 Weekly Pivot  47,049.37  42.13   
 Daily S1  47,148.29  98.91   
 Monthly Pivot  47,149.94  1.66   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  47,271.11  121.17   
 Close  47,289.33  18.22   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  47,412.16  122.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  47,425.79  13.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  47,473.57  47.78   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  47,521.35  47.78   
 Daily R1  47,553.20  31.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  47,580.85  27.65   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  47,676.03  95.18   
 Daily R2  47,817.08  141.05   
 Weekly R1  47,990.73  173.65   
 Monthly R1  48,570.96  580.23   
 Weekly R2  48,692.13  121.17   
 Monthly R2  49,852.58  1,160.45   

Monday 12/1/25. 2025 Forecast Update

Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 202.86 points.
Tuesday: Up 664.18 points.
Wednesday: Up 314.67 points.
Friday: Up 289.3 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1471.01 points or 3.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 1092.61 points or 4.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 246.1 points or 3.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 48,431.57 on 11/12/2025.
     30.3% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 24,019.99 on 10/29/2025.
     58.0% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     1.0% down from the high of 6,920.34 on 10/29/2025.
     41.7% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  47,372  47,544  47,648  47,820  47,923 
Weekly  45,549  46,633  47,192  48,275  48,834 
Monthly  44,590  46,153  47,292  48,856  49,995 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,809  6,829  6,840  6,860  6,871 
Weekly  6,557  6,703  6,777  6,923  6,997 
Monthly  6,365  6,607  6,764  7,006  7,162 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  23,212  23,289  23,327  23,404  23,443 
Weekly  22,182  22,774  23,070  23,662  23,957 
Monthly  20,973  22,169  23,095  24,291  25,216 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AA, AEO, AMAT, ATO, BSET, BOOT, BAH, CE, CRL, CVX, CI, CINF, CLNE, COP, CXW, CRH, CROX, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EOG, EL, EXPI, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GME, HBI, HIG, HL, HURC, INCY, IBP, INTC, IPAR, IPI, JBLU, KLIC, LNC, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MAS, MGEE, NI, NUS, NTNX, OLN, OR, OUT, PNW, PEG, RGS, SBH, SHOP, SR, SPSC, TRGP, TXT, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, UIS, VLO, WEX, WPM, XEL, IYM, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EWT, THD, EWU, DBA, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLF, GLD, XLB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Telecom. Equipment2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Semiconductor3. Drug
4. Drug4. Semiconductor
5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Electronics6. Biotechnology
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Homebuilding8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Machinery
10. Apparel10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. E-Commerce50. IT Services
51. Packaging and Container51. Computer Software and Svcs
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Internet
53. Advertising53. Shoe
54. Internet54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Chemical (Basic)55. E-Commerce
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Information Services57. Information Services
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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