Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/24/2025
  Indus: 48,731 +288.75 +0.6%  
  Trans: 17,669 +32.74 +0.2%  
  Utils: 1,072 +4.41 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 23,613 +51.47 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 6,932 +22.26 +0.3%  
YTD
 +14.5%  
 +11.2%  
 +9.0%  
 +22.3%  
 +17.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/12/2025  
  Up arrow49,500 or 47,000 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow18,750 or 17,000 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,040 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow24,500 or 22,400 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow7,250 or 6,650 by 01/01/2026
As of 12/24/2025
  Indus: 48,731 +288.75 +0.6%  
  Trans: 17,669 +32.74 +0.2%  
  Utils: 1,072 +4.41 +0.4%  
  Nasdaq: 23,613 +51.47 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 6,932 +22.26 +0.3%  
YTD
 +14.5%  
 +11.2%  
 +9.0%  
 +22.3%  
 +17.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/12/2025  
  Up arrow49,500 or 47,000 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow18,750 or 17,000 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,040 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow24,500 or 22,400 by 01/01/2026
  Up arrow7,250 or 6,650 by 01/01/2026

December 2025 Headlines

Archives


Friday 12/26/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALB, ALGT, AEE, APH, APOG, ADM, AWI, BSET, BSX, BR, CBT, CPB, CMTL, CAG, COST, ^DJT, D, ELV, EG, EVRG, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, IT, GFS, GL, GES, THG, HLIT, HE, HL, HOLX, HURC, ITW, INCY, IIIN, PODD, TILE, JKHY, LXU, MCO, MOS, NFG, NOV, OMC, ORCL, PETS, PLXS, KWR, RGS, RNG, SAIA, SMG, SMTC, SR, TGT, TDOC, RIG, VECO, VC, WPM, IYK, IYC, IEV, EEM, EWG, EWI, EWM, EWY, THD, PPA, PBE, XLI, XLB, XRT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFFlag, high and tight      11/24/202512/24/2025Apparel
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/04/202512/16/2025IT Services
ACIWDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/20/202512/10/2025IT Services
ALRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/06/202511/20/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AWIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/09/202512/17/2025Building Materials
AIZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/03/202512/09/2025Insurance (Diversified)
ATOTriple top      10/15/202511/13/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
AZTADouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202512/10/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BALLHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/14/202512/10/2025Packaging and Container
BAXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/05/202511/20/2025Medical Supplies
BBYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/27/202511/26/2025Retail (Special Lines)
BKHHead-and-shoulders top      11/12/202512/12/2025Electric Utility (West)
BBWTriple bottom      11/11/202512/04/2025Retail (Special Lines)
CLSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/28/202512/10/2025Electronics
CHKPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/05/202512/12/2025E-Commerce
CTASTriple bottom      11/03/202512/10/2025Industrial Services
CNAPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CNOTriple bottom      11/04/202512/08/2025Insurance (Diversified)
CNXPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
CLHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/20/202512/18/2025Household Products
CMTLBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/16/202512/17/2025Telecom. Equipment
CAGPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Food Processing
CXWHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Industrial Services
CCKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/19/202512/10/2025Packaging and Container
CTSTriangle, symmetrical      12/09/202512/24/2025Electronics
CWRectangle bottom      11/14/202512/24/2025Machinery
DDSPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Retail Store
DSGRTriple bottom      11/07/202511/28/2025Metal Fabricating
EOGPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
EQTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/13/202512/05/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
EVHTriangle, symmetrical      11/24/202512/24/2025Healthcare Information
FISRising wedge      11/11/202512/16/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FTNTPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FRDPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Building Materials
ITTriple bottom      11/06/202512/10/2025IT Services
GDTriple bottom      12/01/202512/17/2025Aerospace/Defense
GILDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/10/202512/16/2025Biotechnology
HIGPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HWMTriple bottom      12/05/202512/17/2025Aerospace/Defense
IBPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/04/202511/18/2025Retail Building Supply
IIINDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/12/202512/18/2025Building Materials
ITGRPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Electronics
KALUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/30/202511/18/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
KBHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/03/202512/15/2025Homebuilding
KMBPipe top      11/24/202512/01/2025Household Products
LZBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/03/202512/16/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
LHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202512/01/2025Medical Services
LEGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/01/202512/12/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
LDOSHead-and-shoulders top      11/26/202512/12/2025IT Services
LNCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/18/202511/21/2025Insurance (Life)
LOWBroadening top      12/02/202512/23/2025Retail Building Supply
MHOTriangle, symmetrical      11/18/202512/18/2025Homebuilding
MTSIPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Semiconductor
MANHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/10/202512/09/2025Human Resources
MKTXHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/06/202512/02/2025Securities Brokerage
MRKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/09/202512/16/2025Drug
MGEEBroadening wedge, descending      11/10/202512/16/2025Electric Utility (Central)
MOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/24/202512/10/2025Chemical (Diversified)
NOCHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      11/14/202512/17/2025Aerospace/Defense
NVDADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/25/202512/17/2025Semiconductor
OXYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202512/05/2025Petroleum (Producing)
ORIPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
OMIPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Medical Supplies
PKGTriple bottom      11/20/202512/09/2025Packaging and Container
PANWPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Computer Software and Svcs
PKEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202505/16/2025Chemical (Specialty)
PCTYUgly double bottom      11/06/202511/20/2025E-Commerce
PHMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202512/11/2025Homebuilding
KWRUgly double bottom      11/20/202512/09/2025Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/04/202512/10/2025Apparel
RMBSHorn top      10/27/202511/10/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTXHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/21/202512/10/2025Aerospace/Defense
RLIUgly double bottom      11/03/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RHIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/03/202511/20/2025Human Resources
RCKYRectangle top      11/07/202512/24/2025Shoe
SRETriple top      10/08/202511/24/2025Electric Utility (West)
SMTCPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SLGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/10/202511/18/2025Packaging and Container
TDYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/08/202512/11/2025Aerospace/Defense
TZOODouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/21/202512/10/2025Internet
TREXRoof, inverted      11/28/202512/24/2025Building Materials
UNMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/03/202512/08/2025Insurance (Diversified)
WEXHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/31/202512/02/2025Information Services

 

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Wednesday 12/24/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal is bearish, which appears as the red vertical bar on the far right of the chart. The CPI has a reading of 14.8 in a range of 0 to 100.

I drew a violet line across the peaks of both the CPI and the index. Notice that they diverge. The theory says that sooner or later the index will follow the CPI lower. That's not true, as I recall. Sometimes divergence can last for months and then it fades away.

Look back at April-May for an example. The CPI eases lower. The index ignores it and keeps rising. However, the index does dip when the CPI turns bearish, so maybe this isn't a good example of divergence not working.

Returning to the most recent signal, with light trading ahead, you might expect the CPI to bounce around. Signals can change for up to a week. The bearish signal suggests the index is going to retrace in the coming days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALRM, ALK, ALGT, AEO, AFG, AME, APH, ANIK, APOG, ADP, AVNT, BSET, BIIB, BKNG, BSX, BLDR, CBT, CE, CLNE, CAG, COP, COTY, DVN, ECL, ELV, EPAM, EXC, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GME, GAP, GIS, GNW, GPN, GFS, GOOGL, HLIT, HIG, HE, HTLD, HL, HWM, HURC, INCY, IIIN, PODD, JKHY, KEYS, KFRC, KSS, L, MHO, MTRN, META, MLKN, ^IXIC, NOV, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, OMI, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PGR, DGX, RTX, RNG, RLI, SBH, SMG, SEIC, SLGN, TGT, TSCO, VEEV, VC, WSO, ITA, FTEC, AIQ, QQQ, IEV, MXI, IXN, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWG, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, XLP, XHB, XRT, SMH, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/23/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.5% or 227.79 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 982 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 531 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 451 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 324/592 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 62/127 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Company: SO, support and resistance.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AA, AEO, AFG, ANIK, AR, AON, APOG, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ATO, AZTA, BALL, BSET, BZH, BBY, BG, CDNS, CF, CI, CTAS, CLF, CNA, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, COTY, CSGS, ^DJT, DOV, EOG, EG, EXPD, FTNT, FCX, FDP, FRD, GAP, GIS, GNW, HIG, HE, HQY, DHI, HOV, HURC, IIIN, INTC, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KSS, LEN, L, LPLA, MTSI, NFLX, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, ORI, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, PLXS, POR, PHM, PSTG, KWR, QCOM, RLI, R, ^GSPC, SBH, SMTC, TGT, TDY, TER, TMO, TJX, TREX, UGI, VRTX, WAT, WU, WPM, WWD, ITA, IYM, IYZ, MXI, IXN, SLV, IGE, ITB, EWA, EWO, EWQ, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, PPA, DBA, PHO, SSO, XLY, XLP, GLD, XHB, XRT, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,501.56    
 Monthly S1  46,432.12  1,930.56   
 Weekly S2  47,467.44  1,035.32   
 Monthly Pivot  47,659.49  192.05   
 Weekly S1  47,915.06  255.57   
 Daily S2  48,081.42  166.36   
 Low  48,199.13  117.71   
 Open  48,211.88  12.75   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  48,222.05  10.17   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  48,297.10  75.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  48,297.82  0.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  48,328.30  30.48   
 Daily Pivot  48,339.76  11.46   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  48,358.79  19.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  48,362.68  3.89   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  48,457.47  94.79   
 Daily R1  48,480.39  22.92   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  48,598.10  117.71   
 Weekly R1  48,744.72  146.62   
 Weekly R2  49,126.76  382.04   
 Monthly R1  49,590.05  463.29   
 Monthly R2  50,817.42  1,227.37   

Monday 12/22/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the S&P 500 index, on the daily scale. It shares a lot of features shown on the Nasdaq chart a week ago.

Point A is a chart pattern called a broadening top. It's not pleasant to the eye because the two lines don't completely overlap, but it's a valid broadening pattern. The breakout hasn't happened yet.

Point B is a feature of broadening tops as well as other chart patterns (such as rectangles). It's called a partial rise. A partial rise appears at or near the end of the chart pattern where price fails to touch the top trendline. The security drops and we often see a downward breakout. That's not clear yet. Indeed, it looks as if the index will climb instead of drop.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 41.49 points.
Tuesday: Down 302.3 points.
Wednesday: Down 228.29 points.
Thursday: Up 65.88 points.
Friday: Up 183.04 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 323.16 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 112.45 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 7.09 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 48,886.86 on 12/12/2025.
     31.5% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 24,019.99 on 10/29/2025.
     57.7% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 6,920.34 on 10/29/2025.
     41.4% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  47,818  47,977  48,133  48,291  48,448 
Weekly  47,392  47,763  48,221  48,593  49,051 
Monthly  44,426  46,280  47,584  49,438  50,741 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,775  6,805  6,822  6,852  6,870 
Weekly  6,664  6,749  6,806  6,891  6,947 
Monthly  6,372  6,603  6,753  6,985  7,135 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  23,039  23,173  23,241  23,375  23,442 
Weekly  22,462  22,885  23,115  23,538  23,769 
Monthly  21,164  22,236  22,970  24,042  24,776 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, AR, AVY, AVA, AZTA, BSET, BZH, BKH, BR, BBW, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNX, ED, CAG, CSGP, CRH, EOG, FAST, FORM, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GAP, GE, GIS, GES, HLIT, HIG, HELE, HSY, HD, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, IDXX, PODD, JKHY, KBH, KMT, LMT, MHO, MTSI, MGY, MTRN, MS, MLI, NWL, NKE, NI, NOC, ORI, OMC, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PPG, PHM, DGX, RJF, ROG, R, SMTC, SHW, TGT, TXT, TJX, TG, WU, WLK, IYM, IAI, FTEC, FXL, ITB, EWK, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWP, THD, PJP, XLY, XHB, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Telecom. Equipment1. Telecom. Equipment
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Apparel3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor4. Apparel
5. Metals and Mining (Div.)5. Metals and Mining (Div.)
6. Drug6. Drug
7. Biotechnology7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Machinery8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Electronics
10. Air Transport10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. IT Services51. E-Commerce
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. IT Services
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Computer Software and Svcs
55. Information Services55. Information Services
56. Chemical (Basic)56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Household Products57. Short ETFs
58. Short ETFs58. Household Products
59. Investment Co. (Domestic)59. Investment Co. (Domestic)
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/19/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AMZN, APH, AR, AMAT, ANET, AVNT, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BIO, BKH, BFH, BR, CACI, CDNS, COR, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNX, CMTL, CAG, CXW, CSGP, XRAY, DUK, ECL, EOG, EVH, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GE, GNW, HLIT, HIG, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, HWM, ITW, ITGR, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LEN, MTSI, MAN, MA, MU, MYGN, ^IXIC, NWL, NVDA, ORI, OMC, ON, OMI, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PCG, PPG, PPL, PHM, QTWO, KWR, DGX, RLI, ^GSPC, SMG, SMTC, SCI, NOW, TGT, TDC, TER, TXN, TJX, UHAL, UNH, VMC, WRB, WSO, WU, WSM, WWD, ITA, IYK, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, AIQ, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IXN, SOXX, IHI, EWA, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWT, QLD, PPA, DBA, SSO, XLY, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFFlag      12/02/202512/08/2025Apparel
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/04/202512/16/2025IT Services
ACIWDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/20/202512/10/2025IT Services
ALRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/06/202511/20/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AIZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/03/202512/09/2025Insurance (Diversified)
ATOTriple top      10/15/202511/13/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
AZTADouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/25/202512/10/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BALLHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/14/202512/10/2025Packaging and Container
BAXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/05/202511/20/2025Medical Supplies
BKHHead-and-shoulders top      11/12/202512/12/2025Electric Utility (West)
CLSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/28/202512/10/2025Electronics
CHKPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/05/202512/12/2025E-Commerce
CTASTriple bottom      11/03/202512/10/2025Industrial Services
CNAPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CNOTriple bottom      11/04/202512/08/2025Insurance (Diversified)
CMTLBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/16/202512/17/2025Telecom. Equipment
CAGPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Food Processing
CXWHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Industrial Services
CCKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/19/202512/10/2025Packaging and Container
DDSPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Retail Store
DSGRTriple bottom      11/07/202511/28/2025Metal Fabricating
EOGPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
EQTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/13/202512/05/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
FISRising wedge      11/11/202512/16/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FTNTPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FRDPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Building Materials
ITTriple bottom      11/06/202512/10/2025IT Services
HIGPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
IBPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/04/202511/18/2025Retail Building Supply
KALUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/30/202511/18/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
LHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/11/202512/01/2025Medical Services
LDOSHead-and-shoulders top      11/26/202512/12/2025IT Services
LNCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/18/202511/21/2025Insurance (Life)
MHOTriangle, symmetrical      11/18/202512/18/2025Homebuilding
MTSIPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Semiconductor
MANHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/10/202512/09/2025Human Resources
MKTXHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/06/202512/02/2025Securities Brokerage
MOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/24/202512/10/2025Chemical (Diversified)
OMIPipe bottom      12/01/202512/08/2025Medical Supplies
PANWPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Computer Software and Svcs
PCTYUgly double bottom      11/06/202511/20/2025E-Commerce
PHMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202512/11/2025Homebuilding
KWRTriangle, ascending      11/12/202512/17/2025Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/04/202512/10/2025Apparel
RMBSHorn top      10/27/202511/10/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RLIUgly double bottom      11/03/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RHIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/03/202511/20/2025Human Resources
SMTCPipe top      12/01/202512/08/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TDYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/08/202512/11/2025Aerospace/Defense
TZOODouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/21/202512/10/2025Internet
UNMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/03/202512/08/2025Insurance (Diversified)
WEXHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/31/202512/02/2025Information Services

 

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Thursday 12/18/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.8% or -418.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 67 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 27 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 40 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 59.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 303/551 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/181 or 48.1% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't have much to say about the chart. The index is trending lower. Because a trend in motion tends to remain in motion, I'm looking for additional declines in the index.

Sometime, however, that has to change and the index will rise.

That's it!

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AMD, AES, ALK, AMZN, AEO, AFG, AMN, APH, AR, AAPL, ADM, AIZ, ATO, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BSX, CDNS, CNP, CDAY, CHD, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNX, CMTL, ED, CAG, CXW, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DOV, EMN, EMR, EOG, EG, EVH, FDS, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GAP, GD, GE, GNW, GOOGL, HIG, HE, HSIC, HNI, HWM, ITW, IPAR, IBKR, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KELYA, LHX, LRCX, LEN, LLY, MTSI, MANH, MKTX, MLM, MAS, MTDR, MTRX, MRCY, MGEE, MCO, MUR, ^IXIC, NJR, NTNX, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PFE, PCG, PGR, QTWO, RMBS, RLI, RES, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SCI, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TSCO, TG, UGI, VMC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, AIQ, BOTZ, QQQ, IEV, IGV, ILF, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, QLD, ROBO, XLY, XLK, USO, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,959.44    
 Monthly S1  21,826.38  866.94   
 Daily S2  22,380.97  554.59   
 Daily S1  22,537.15  156.17   
 Weekly S2  22,554.40  17.25   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  22,623.86  69.46   
 Low  22,692.00  68.14   
 Close  22,693.32  1.32   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  22,765.23  71.91   
 Daily Pivot  22,848.17  82.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,870.47  22.30   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,925.60  55.13   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,980.73  55.13   
 Daily R1  23,004.35  23.62   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  23,135.61  131.26   
 High  23,159.20  23.59   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  23,163.97  4.77   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  23,233.43  69.46   
 Daily R2  23,315.37  81.94   
 Monthly R1  23,632.17  316.80   
 Weekly R2  23,773.54  141.37   
 Monthly R2  24,571.02  797.48   

Wednesday 12/17/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent CPI reading is 12.5, which is bearish on a scale of 0 to 100.

I show that with a vertical red bar on the far right of the chart. That bar appeared today, so it could change for up to a week.

The inset at B shows how today's movement pulled the CPI down. The good news is that after this type of plunge, the CPI recovers quickly. Look at A for an example of that behavior. If the CPI is the hair trigger, then the index is slow motion. After the CPI turns bullish, expect the index to follow with a move upward that might last a few weeks.

It is possible that the chart shows a double or triple top chart pattern and the index will continue to drop. A drop will drive the CPI to 0 or close to it, before a recovery. What we do see is that the index has moved sideways since mid September. Maybe this sideway choppy motion will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABM, ACN, ALKS, AMZN, DOX, AEP, AFG, AMN, APH, AR, ARCB, AXS, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BIO, BKH, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CHD, CINF, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CNX, CGNX, CAG, CCK, DVN, DOV, DUK, EMN, EIX, EOG, EL, EVH, XOM, FICO, FTNT, FTV, FDP, FRD, GD, GNW, THG, HIG, HSIC, HWM, ITW, JKHY, KBH, LHX, LRCX, RAMP, L, LOW, MTSI, MLM, MTDR, MRK, MRCY, MGEE, MCO, NBR, NTAP, NI, NTNX, OGE, ORI, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PGR, DGX, RMBS, REGN, RLI, ROST, SEE, SRE, SMTC, SHOP, SR, SPSC, SSYS, SNPS, TJX, TOL, RIG, TG, TWLO, IYE, IEZ, FXI, AIQ, IYZ, IXC, IXN, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWK, EEM, EIS, DBA, XLP, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/16/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -41.49 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1411 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 739 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 672 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 324/591 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 62/127 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwest Airlines: LUV (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, AYI, ALB, AMZN, DOX, AMWD, AMN, APA, AAPL, ADM, AGO, AXS, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BAH, BSX, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CPB, CDAY, CHKP, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, COP, CSGP, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DDS, DSGR, DTE, EIX, ELV, EOG, FICO, FAST, FDX, FMC, FDP, GME, IT, GFF, HIG, HSIC, HSY, HOV, HUN, ITW, NSP, ISRG, IRM, JKHY, JAZZ, KBH, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LEN, LPLA, MGY, MDT, MRK, MS, NBR, NEU, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PYPL, PNW, PG, PGR, QTWO, KWR, REGN, RNG, RHI, ROK, ROP, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SRE, SKYW, SXI, TECH, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TRV, UHAL, VC, WSO, WU, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FDN, BOTZ, IXC, EWA, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, PXJ, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XHB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,519.52    
 Monthly S1  46,468.04  1,948.52   
 Weekly S2  46,831.54  363.50   
 Weekly S1  47,624.05  792.51   
 Monthly Pivot  47,677.45  53.40   
 Daily S2  48,063.79  386.34   
 Daily S1  48,240.17  176.39   
 Weekly Pivot  48,255.45  15.28   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  48,283.27  27.82   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  48,416.56  133.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  48,434.49  17.93   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  48,459.66  25.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  48,481.20  21.55   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  48,527.92  46.71   
 Open  48,594.36  66.44   
 Daily R1  48,636.04  41.68   
 High  48,679.14  43.10   
 Daily R2  48,855.53  176.39   
 Weekly R1  49,047.96  192.44   
 Monthly R1  49,625.97  578.00   
 Weekly R2  49,679.38  53.41   
 Monthly R2  50,835.38  1,156.00   

Monday 12/15/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I don't have much to report about this chart. This picture is on the daily scale.

I drew a red line under the valleys, at A. Notice that the index follows the line higher.

The channel at B is not a robust pattern. It's a channel with two touches of each side, where 3 is really a minimum (5 touches of two trendlines, minimum).

Notice that trend A is upward and tight. Trend B is downward and loose.

Of course, this means the index is searching for a new direction. My guess is it'll be upward. I suggest that because the channel slopes downward as a retrace of uptrend A, the next move is likely upward (after it completes a short downward move).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 215.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 179.03 points.
Wednesday: Up 497.46 points.
Thursday: Up 646.26 points.
Friday: Down 245.96 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 503.06 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 382.96 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 42.99 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 48,886.86 on 12/12/2025.
     32.4% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     3.4% down from the high of 24,019.99 on 10/29/2025.
     56.9% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 6,920.34 on 10/29/2025.
     41.2% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  48,007  48,232  48,560  48,785  49,112 
Weekly  46,845  47,652  48,269  49,076  49,693 
Monthly  44,533  46,496  47,691  49,654  50,849 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,745  6,786  6,843  6,884  6,941 
Weekly  6,743  6,785  6,844  6,887  6,946 
Monthly  6,369  6,598  6,751  6,980  7,132 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  22,821  23,008  23,282  23,469  23,742 
Weekly  22,722  22,958  23,331  23,568  23,941 
Monthly  21,127  22,161  22,933  23,967  24,738 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, ALK, ALB, ALKS, ALGT, AXP, AMWD, APH, AON, APA, ASH, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BBY, BAH, BCO, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CNC, CHKP, CLNE, COP, CTS, CMI, DHR, DOV, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EQT, EG, EVH, FDX, FISV, FLS, FTV, GME, GAP, GE, GNW, GS, GES, HIG, HE, HP, HOV, HUBG, HUN, ITW, IRM, JKHY, KMB, KSS, LEG, LEN, LPLA, M, MA, MTRX, MRK, MRCY, MS, NBR, NEU, NKE, NVDA, OXY, OMC, ON, OTEX, OMI, PCTY, PCG, POR, PFG, KWR, RHI, ROK, ROST, RES, SLB, SEIC, SLGN, SKYW, SCCO, SXI, TECH, TXN, TXT, TTD, TKR, TOL, TDG, RIG, UHAL, UGI, VECO, VEEV, VRSN, VC, VMC, WSO, WU, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IEZ, FDN, BOTZ, IYH, IXC, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWP, EWL, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, XLV, XHB, XRT, UNG, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Telecom. Equipment1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Apparel4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Metals and Mining (Div.)5. Drug
6. Drug6. Apparel
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Electronics
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Electronics9. Biotechnology
10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment10. Metals and Mining (Div.)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
51. E-Commerce51. Internet
52. IT Services52. Packaging and Container
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. E-Commerce
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. IT Services
55. Information Services55. Information Services
56. Chemical (Basic)56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Short ETFs57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. Short ETFs
59. Investment Co. (Domestic)59. Investment Co. (Domestic)
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/12/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, AFL, APD, AEP, AXP, AIG, APH, ANIK, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BSET, BAH, BSX, CACI, CALM, CENX, CDAY, CHKP, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CW, DECK, DOV, ELV, EMR, EFX, EQT, EXPI, FDS, FAST, FLS, FDP, FRD, GNW, GES, HLIT, HIG, HE, HSIC, HD, HON, HOV, HUM, IDA, ITW, TILE, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KMB, LH, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, MTSI, MKTX, MRK, MLKN, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, OXM, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PCG, KWR, RTX, SEIC, SO, SXI, TPR, TRGP, TECH, TTD, TZOO, UGI, UPS, WMT, WERN, WU, WEX, WSM, XEL, IDU, DDM, IHF, IEV, SLV, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWL, DBA, PEJ, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDDead-cat bounce      12/09/202512/09/2025Electronics
APDDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202512/05/2025Chemical (Diversified)
ALLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/17/202511/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DOXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/18/202512/02/2025IT Services
AEEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/20/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
AIGHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/12/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMWDUgly double bottom      11/19/202512/09/2025Building Materials
ASHTriple bottom      09/30/202511/20/2025Chemical (Basic)
BAHHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/30/202512/03/2025IT Services
CEHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Chemical (Basic)
CNPTriple top      09/29/202511/18/2025Electric Utility (Central)
CRHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/18/202511/21/2025Cement and Aggregates
^DJUTriple top      11/10/202511/28/2025None
BOOMHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/07/202512/02/2025Metal Fabricating
EMNHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Chemical (Diversified)
EGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/20/202512/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FDSUgly double bottom      11/06/202511/19/2025Information Services
FDPUgly double bottom      10/29/202511/20/2025Food Processing
FRDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/01/202512/09/2025Building Materials
GNWUgly double bottom      11/18/202512/02/2025Insurance (Life)
GLTriple bottom      11/03/202512/03/2025Insurance (Life)
GFFUgly double bottom      11/18/202512/09/2025Building Materials
HOVPipe top      11/24/202512/01/2025Homebuilding
HUNHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/14/202511/18/2025Chemical (Specialty)
IIINBig W      10/16/202511/21/2025Building Materials
IPIUgly double bottom      11/06/202511/19/2025Chemical (Diversified)
IRMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/21/202512/03/2025Industrial Services
KELYAUgly double bottom      11/21/202512/08/2025Human Resources
LAMRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/26/202512/08/2025Advertising
LENPipe top      11/24/202512/01/2025Homebuilding
LPLAPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Securities Brokerage
MANHPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025IT Services
MRKPipe top      11/24/202512/01/2025Drug
NFGRising wedge      11/05/202512/11/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
NEUTriangle, symmetrical      11/19/202512/09/2025Chemical (Specialty)
NEEDiamond top      11/10/202512/03/2025Electric Utility (East)
OGEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/12/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
OLNUgly double bottom      11/20/202512/08/2025Chemical (Basic)
OXMDead-cat bounce      12/11/202512/11/2025Apparel
PKEHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      10/30/202512/02/2025Chemical (Specialty)
PETSFlag, high and tight      12/08/202512/11/2025Medical Services
PLXSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/10/202511/21/2025Electronics
PORDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/13/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (West)
PEGHead-and-shoulders complex top      09/15/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (East)
RRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/20/202512/05/2025Petroleum (Producing)
RGAPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Insurance (Life)
RDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/23/202511/20/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SIGIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/18/202512/05/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SHOPPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025E-Commerce
SGIUgly double bottom      11/04/202511/18/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
TGTPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Retail Store
TECHPipe top      11/24/202512/01/2025Biotechnology
TWLOHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/07/202512/05/2025E-Commerce
WRBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/14/202511/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WEXPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025Information Services

 

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Thursday 12/11/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.3% or 77.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 708 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 388 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 320 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 303/550 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/181 or 48.1% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 1 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 1-minute scale.

The tall spike upward at A shows the 2 PM time when the FED was supposed to announce their decision. The quarter point cut was well received by the market, at least initially (which bar A confirms).

The index wobbled up and down, eventually forming a chart pattern called a broadening top. I show the pattern outlined with two diverging red lines.

At B is another chart pattern called a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. Confirmation happened at bar A.

The hooking rise from C to D is a pattern called an inverted and ascending scallop. Price bottoms on the right side and often continues rising above the pattern's peak.

That's what I expect to happen. The index may drop some at the open, but I expect the index to rise.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, ACIW, AES, AEO, AEP, AXP, APH, AON, AWI, ADP, BSET, BOOT, BSX, BG, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CXW, CR, CROX, DECK, DOV, EXP, ECL, EFX, EL, EVH, EXC, FIS, FISV, FLS, FMC, FRD, IT, GFF, GES, HLIT, HOV, JBHT, INTC, JKHY, KMB, LHX, LEN, MHO, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MRK, MRCY, MLI, NWL, NOC, NUS, NTNX, POR, PPL, PGR, PHM, RGS, RLI, ROG, ROST, RGLD, ^GSPC, SAIA, SMG, SHW, SO, SNPS, TECH, TER, TMO, TJX, TOL, TZOO, TWLO, UHAL, UGI, UIS, VFC, VMC, WMT, WAT, XEL, ITA, IYM, BOTZ, MXI, ITB, EWK, EWI, EWJ, EWT, PHO, SSO, XLF, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,097.88    
 Monthly S1  22,376.02  1,278.14   
 Weekly S2  22,911.63  535.61   
 Monthly Pivot  23,176.43  264.80   
 Weekly S1  23,282.89  106.46   
 Daily S2  23,328.89  46.00   
 Low  23,435.17  106.28   
 Weekly Pivot  23,481.48  46.31   
 Daily S1  23,491.53  10.05   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  23,536.00  44.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,537.89  1.89   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,569.63  31.73   
 Daily Pivot  23,597.80  28.18   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,601.36  3.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  23,654.16  52.80   
 High  23,704.08  49.92   
 Daily R1  23,760.44  56.36   
 Weekly R1  23,852.74  92.31   
 Daily R2  23,866.71  13.97   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  24,051.33  184.61   
 Monthly R1  24,454.57  403.24   
 Monthly R2  25,254.98  800.41   

Wednesday 12/10/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal has changed to neutral with a reading of 36.8.

About two weeks ago, the CPI was bullish and the index climbed after the green bar appeared. Recently, however, we see the index vacillating from neutral (white bars) and the sell bar (red).

Notice that the index has moved horizontally over the last week while it makes up its mind before charting a new direction.

The upward hook in the CPI (from yesterday) probably means that the CPI is going higher. I expect the index to follow suit when the FED lowers interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow. A lower rate is good news for the stock market, but a quarter point drop is probably already factored in. The markets are waiting for confirmation. We may see a dip after the news comes out tomorrow, but I expect a rebound in the coming days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ADTN, AES, APD, ALRM, ALK, ALB, ALGT, DOX, APOG, ANET, AWI, ARW, ADSK, AZTA, BMI, BZH, BKNG, BSX, BRC, BMY, BG, CBT, CPB, CNP, CHKP, CLF, CNA, CNX, CTSH, CL, CMTL, COTY, CCRN, CTS, CMI, FANG, DDS, ^DJI, EMR, EPAM, EL, EZPW, FFIV, FLS, FMC, FTNT, GIS, GES, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KMB, KSS, LHX, LEN, LNC, LMT, MANH, MAN, MKTX, MA, MRK, MS, MLI, NEE, NUS, ORCL, PANW, PATK, PFE, PPL, PFG, PEG, PHM, QTWO, RRC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, R, ^GSPC, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, NOW, LUV, SPSC, SXI, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TKR, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, WU, WMB, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, IAI, DDM, FXI, AIQ, ICF, IYZ, SLV, IYF, ITB, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWH, EWW, EWL, PEJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, XLP, XLF, XRT, SPY, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/9/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -215.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 969 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 492 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 477 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 324/590 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 62/127 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwest Airlines v1: LUV (actual trade) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, APD, AKAM, ALK, AR, ARCB, ANET, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BALL, BIO, BA, BAH, BSX, BRC, BCO, BMY, BG, CLS, CNC, CNP, CTAS, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CNX, CMTL, COTY, CRH, CTS, CMI, DDS, ^DJI, D, DOV, EXP, EMN, EIX, EMR, EQT, EL, EVRG, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FTNT, FWRD, GAP, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, HD, HOV, JBHT, HUN, IDA, ILMN, IBP, INTC, IPAR, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, K, KMB, LEG, LEN, LPLA, MANH, MAN, MA, MTRN, MGEE, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NWL, NEE, OMCL, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PFE, PG, KWR, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, SBH, SAIC, SRE, TPR, TGT, TEVA, MZTI, TTD, TSCO, UIS, UNM, WRB, WERN, WU, XEL, IYK, IYC, DDM, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IYZ, MXI, IYF, ITB, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWH, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, PBE, SSO, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLB, SPY, XLU, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,597.30    
 Monthly S1  46,168.31  1,571.01   
 Weekly S2  46,842.64  674.33   
 Weekly S1  47,290.98  448.34   
 Monthly Pivot  47,299.94  8.96   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  47,414.67  114.73   
 Daily S1  47,577.00  162.32   
 Low  47,611.93  34.93   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  47,712.26  100.33   
 Close  47,739.32  27.06   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  47,749.29  9.97   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  47,774.25  24.96   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  47,791.72  17.46   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  47,834.15  42.43   
 Daily R1  47,936.58  102.43   
 Open  47,971.51  34.93   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  47,971.51  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  48,133.83  162.32   
 Weekly R1  48,160.60  26.77   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  48,581.88  421.28   
 Monthly R1  48,870.95  289.07   
 Monthly R2  50,002.58  1,131.63   

Monday 12/8/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

On the far right of the chart is what looks like a chart pattern called a head-and-shoulders top. LS is the left shoulder, RS is the right one, with a head in between.

The pattern doesn't become real until the index closes below the red line at A. That's a long way away from where it is now, making me believe it won't happen.

As ugly as the head-and-shoulders top looks, a handsome broadening top appears at B. The partial decline at C correctly predicts an upward breakout. That breakout happens at D, when the index closes above the top of the pattern. A nice rise followed.

What do I think will happen next? We'll probably see a retrace that may take the index down midway between RS and A before a resumption of the uptrend. That decline and recovery, if it happens, could take a month.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 427.09 points.
Tuesday: Up 185.13 points.
Wednesday: Up 408.44 points.
Thursday: Down 31.96 points.
Friday: Up 104.05 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 238.57 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 212.44 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 21.31 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 48,431.57 on 11/12/2025.
     31.0% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 24,019.99 on 10/29/2025.
     59.5% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     0.7% down from the high of 6,920.34 on 10/29/2025.
     42.1% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  47,725  47,840  47,987  48,102  48,249 
Weekly  46,915  47,435  47,784  48,304  48,654 
Monthly  44,669  46,312  47,372  49,015  50,074 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,837  6,854  6,875  6,891  6,912 
Weekly  6,760  6,815  6,855  6,911  6,951 
Monthly  6,389  6,630  6,763  7,003  7,137 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  23,414  23,496  23,588  23,670  23,762 
Weekly  22,886  23,232  23,456  23,802  24,026 
Monthly  21,073  22,325  23,151  24,404  25,230 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AES, ALK, ALB, AA, AXP, AMAT, ANET, ADP, AVY, AVA, BIO, BA, BOOT, BSX, BFH, BMY, CBT, CX, CNC, CLNE, CL, CMTL, COST, COTY, CROX, CSGS, D, ECL, EQT, EZPW, FDS, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HD, HWM, JBHT, IPAR, TILE, JAZZ, JNJ, KELYA, KEYS, KMB, LZB, LEG, LOW, LPLA, MGY, MANH, MAN, MCO, MOS, NBR, ORI, OMCL, OMI, PTEN, PEN, PFE, PFG, PRU, KWR, ROK, ROP, RES, CRM, SMG, SRE, SHW, SKYW, SCCO, SPSC, TPR, TGT, TEVA, TSCO, RIG, UHAL, UIS, UNM, WRB, WERN, WU, WWD, XEL, IYM, IYC, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, AIQ, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IXN, SOXX, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLB, XLK, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Telecom. Equipment2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Drug
5. Drug5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Apparel6. Electronics
7. Electronics7. Metals and Mining (Div.)
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Homebuilding
9. Biotechnology9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Metals and Mining (Div.)10. Apparel
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. E-Commerce
51. Internet51. Packaging and Container
52. Packaging and Container52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. E-Commerce53. Advertising
54. IT Services54. Internet
55. Information Services55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Chemical (Basic)56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Household Products57. Information Services
58. Short ETFs58. Household Products
59. Investment Co. (Domestic)59. Short ETFs
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 12/5/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AYI, ALK, AMZN, AXP, AFG, AON, ANET, AVA, BA, BRC, BMY, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CE, CTAS, CLNE, CNA, CL, CMTL, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, D, DOV, EMN, EME, EOG, EPAM, EQT, FDS, FAST, FIS, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FDP, GIS, HLIT, HTLD, HD, HOV, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, KELYA, KFRC, RAMP, LPLA, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MKTX, MA, META, NBR, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NUS, PTEN, KWR, RJF, RGA, RHI, ROK, RGLD, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, SPSC, TPR, TGT, TEVA, TDG, TG, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, UIS, UPS, UNM, WU, WPM, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, DDM, AIQ, BOTZ, ILF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, DBA, ROBO, XLF, XLI, XLU, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriangle, ascending      10/24/202512/02/2025Diversified Co.
ALKPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Air Transport
AAHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Aerospace/Defense
AEPHead-and-shoulders top      11/10/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
AMGNTriangle, ascending      11/13/202512/04/2025Biotechnology
ARUgly double bottom      10/30/202511/21/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
APAUgly double bottom      11/05/202511/21/2025Petroleum (Producing)
AZTATriple bottom      11/03/202511/18/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BAPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Aerospace/Defense
BMYUgly double bottom      10/29/202511/20/2025Drug
BBWDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Retail (Special Lines)
CPBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202511/21/2025Food Processing
CRLHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Biotechnology
CLPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Household Products
COPTriple bottom      10/16/202511/25/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
CXWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/06/202511/18/2025Industrial Services
CCRNDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Human Resources
FANGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/16/202511/05/2025Petroleum (Producing)
DPipe bottom      10/27/202511/03/2025Electric Utility (East)
DUKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/07/202511/18/2025Electric Utility (East)
EOGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/07/202511/24/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
EQTPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
ELHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
EVRGBroadening bottom      11/12/202512/04/2025Electric Utility (Central)
EXCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/17/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (East)
FLSPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025Machinery
FORMPipe bottom      11/10/202511/17/2025Semiconductor
FWRDPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FCXTriple bottom      11/06/202511/21/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
HLITPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Telecom. Equipment
HOVDead-cat bounce      12/04/202512/04/2025Homebuilding
HUMPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Medical Services
JBLUBig W      10/30/202511/18/2025Air Transport
KBHDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/09/202511/18/2025Homebuilding
LHXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/24/202512/03/2025Aerospace/Defense
LAMRDiamond top      11/12/202511/20/2025Advertising
MTRNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/30/202511/18/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
NBRPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NWLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/04/202511/20/2025Household Products
NIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/12/202511/28/2025Electric Utility (Central)
OLNHorn bottom      11/03/202511/17/2025Chemical (Basic)
PTENPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PCGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/21/202511/12/2025Electric Utility (West)
PSTGDead-cat bounce      12/03/202512/03/2025Computers and Peripherals
RTXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/28/202511/11/2025Aerospace/Defense
SKYWBroadening bottom      10/09/202512/03/2025Air Transport
SRHead-and-shoulders top      10/24/202511/28/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
TXTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/23/202511/20/2025Diversified Co.
MZTITriple top      11/05/202511/21/2025Food Processing
UISPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Computers and Peripherals
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/05/202511/20/2025Air Transport
WERNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/31/202511/21/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WUPipe bottom      11/17/202511/24/2025Financial Services

 

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Thursday 12/4/25. Bitcoin Fall

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.2% or 40.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 737 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 426 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 311 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 302/549 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/181 or 48.1% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Bitcoin on the daily chart.

I show a picture of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale, I think.

I've heard about the drop in BTC so I thought I'd take a look.

Let's run through some of the patterns. Pictured on the far left of the chart are the twin peaks of a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the cryptocurrency closes below the horizontal red line (that's below the lowest valley between the two peaks). When that happened, the squiggles on the chart turned into a real chart pattern. The double top predicted a decline, which is what we see.

The currency dropped from about 110,000 to 75,000, or about 32%.

At C, buyers flocked into the currency (or sellers stopped selling). The currency made a nice climb up to another double top.

After that, a head-and-shoulders top (LS-A-RS) signaled a reversal. The currency peaked at A, at about $125,000 and made a nice drop to bottom at B, almost 80,000 for a tidy loss of 36% in less than two months.

We're seeing a bounce now, as if this were an event pattern called a dead-cat bounce. If that pattern holds true, then expect the currency to drop below the low at B, putting it at about 65,600 (18% below B, on average). That will not be a nice Christmas present.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, AYI, AFL, ALK, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AXP, APA, ANET, ASH, AVY, AVA, BIIB, BA, BMY, BRKR, BG, CRL, CMTL, COTY, CRH, DDS, D, DOV, BOOM, EIX, EOG, EQT, EL, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FIS, FISV, FLS, FMC, FTV, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GAP, GES, HLIT, HP, HSIC, HD, HOV, IDA, IDXX, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, JAZZ, KELYA, LAMR, LEN, LNC, LPLA, MTSI, MANH, MKTX, MSFT, MOS, MUR, NBR, OXY, OMCL, ORCL, OXM, PTEN, PYPL, PFG, PRU, PSTG, KWR, RJF, REGN, RHI, ROP, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, TGT, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TG, UIS, UNM, VC, WRB, WU, WWD, XEL, IYK, IYC, IEZ, DDM, FXL, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, EWA, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLF, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLU, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,002.42    
 Weekly S2  22,211.86  1,209.44   
 Monthly S1  22,228.26  16.39   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  22,832.98  604.72   
 Weekly Pivot  23,099.38  266.41   
 Monthly Pivot  23,124.12  24.74   
 Daily S2  23,180.52  56.39   
 Low  23,271.83  91.31   
 Open  23,315.58  43.75   
 Daily S1  23,317.30  1.72   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  23,358.96  41.66   
 50% Down from Intraday High  23,385.88  26.92   
 Daily Pivot  23,408.62  22.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  23,412.79  4.18   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  23,454.09  41.29   
 High  23,499.93  45.84   
 Daily R1  23,545.40  45.47   
 Daily R2  23,636.72  91.31   
 Weekly R1  23,720.50  83.78   
 Weekly R2  23,986.90  266.41   
 Monthly R1  24,349.96  363.05   
 Monthly R2  25,245.82  895.87   

Wednesday 12/3/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish about a week ago, just as the index bottomed. The index recovered and has now formed a chart pattern called a triple top. It hasn't confirmed as a valid pattern yet, so it could be squiggles on the price chart.

To confirm it, the index would have to close below the lowest valley between the three peaks. The most recent green bar points to the confirmation price.

The CPI reads 73.1, which is bullish but just above the neutral zone below 65.

Given that the trend is down, I'd expect the CPI to drop into the neutral zone. It might stay there or continue lower to post a bearish signal. (It could rise, of course, but I think weakness is coming).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALK, AMZN, AEO, APH, APOG, ATR, ANET, AIZ, AVNT, BCPC, BSET, BBY, BA, BAH, BSX, BG, CBT, CALM, CAL, CPB, CDAY, CF, CMTL, COST, COTY, CRH, XRAY, DOV, EMN, EQT, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GAP, GES, HLIT, HOLX, HD, IDA, NSP, ITGR, IRM, JAZZ, KMT, LPLA, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MSFT, MOS, NBR, NFLX, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OMCL, OR, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PG, PRU, PSTG, QTWO, KWR, RL, REGN, RNG, RHI, RGLD, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWX, TRGP, TGT, TDC, TER, TMO, TDG, UIS, WSO, WU, WMB, WWD, XEL, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, IBB, DBA, XAR, XLK, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 12/2/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.9% or -427.09 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 451 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 220 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 231 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 51.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 324/590 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 62/126 or 49.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Peru Copper: PCU stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AA, AEO, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ASH, BOOT, BSX, BMY, BLDR, CAL, CPB, CE, COR, CDAY, CRL, CI, CINF, CXW, CRH, CROX, ^DJU, EMN, EIX, EQT, EL, FDS, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FWRD, FNV, GES, HTLD, JBHT, IEX, INCY, IBP, IRM, KALU, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LNC, LXU, MTSI, M, OLN, ASGN, OR, PGR, PRU, RHI, ROST, RGLD, SEE, SHOP, SNPS, TPR, TMO, RIG, TRV, TG, WEX, WWW, IYM, IDU, FXL, IAT, SLV, IGE, EWW, EWS, EZA, TUR, EWU, PHO, GLD, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,447.30    
 Weekly S2  45,406.61  959.30   
 Monthly S1  45,868.32  461.71   
 Weekly S1  46,347.97  479.65   
 Daily S2  47,007.24  659.27   
 Weekly Pivot  47,049.37  42.13   
 Daily S1  47,148.29  98.91   
 Monthly Pivot  47,149.94  1.66   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  47,271.11  121.17   
 Close  47,289.33  18.22   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  47,412.16  122.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  47,425.79  13.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  47,473.57  47.78   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  47,521.35  47.78   
 Daily R1  47,553.20  31.85   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  47,580.85  27.65   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  47,676.03  95.18   
 Daily R2  47,817.08  141.05   
 Weekly R1  47,990.73  173.65   
 Monthly R1  48,570.96  580.23   
 Weekly R2  48,692.13  121.17   
 Monthly R2  49,852.58  1,160.45   

Monday 12/1/25. 2025 Forecast Update

Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 202.86 points.
Tuesday: Up 664.18 points.
Wednesday: Up 314.67 points.
Friday: Up 289.3 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1471.01 points or 3.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 1092.61 points or 4.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 246.1 points or 3.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 48,431.57 on 11/12/2025.
     30.3% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     2.7% down from the high of 24,019.99 on 10/29/2025.
     58.0% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     1.0% down from the high of 6,920.34 on 10/29/2025.
     41.7% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  47,372  47,544  47,648  47,820  47,923 
Weekly  45,549  46,633  47,192  48,275  48,834 
Monthly  44,590  46,153  47,292  48,856  49,995 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,809  6,829  6,840  6,860  6,871 
Weekly  6,557  6,703  6,777  6,923  6,997 
Monthly  6,365  6,607  6,764  7,006  7,162 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  23,212  23,289  23,327  23,404  23,443 
Weekly  22,182  22,774  23,070  23,662  23,957 
Monthly  20,973  22,169  23,095  24,291  25,216 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AA, AEO, AMAT, ATO, BSET, BOOT, BAH, CE, CRL, CVX, CI, CINF, CLNE, COP, CXW, CRH, CROX, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EOG, EL, EXPI, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GME, HBI, HIG, HL, HURC, INCY, IBP, INTC, IPAR, IPI, JBLU, KLIC, LNC, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MAS, MGEE, NI, NUS, NTNX, OLN, OR, OUT, PNW, PEG, RGS, SBH, SHOP, SR, SPSC, TRGP, TXT, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, UIS, VLO, WEX, WPM, XEL, IYM, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EWT, THD, EWU, DBA, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLF, GLD, XLB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Telecom. Equipment2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Semiconductor3. Drug
4. Drug4. Semiconductor
5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Electronics6. Biotechnology
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Homebuilding8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Machinery
10. Apparel10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. E-Commerce50. IT Services
51. Packaging and Container51. Computer Software and Svcs
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Internet
53. Advertising53. Shoe
54. Internet54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Chemical (Basic)55. E-Commerce
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Information Services57. Information Services
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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