Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/27/2025
  Indus: 47,545 +337.47 +0.7%  
  Trans: 15,663 +208.50 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,144 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 23,637 +432.62 +1.9%  
  S&P 500: 6,875 +83.47 +1.2%  
YTD
 +11.8%  
-1.5%  
 +16.4%  
 +22.4%  
 +16.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2025  
  Up arrow49,500 or 46,400 by 11/15/2025
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,200 by 11/01/2025
  Up arrow1,200 or 1,125 by 11/01/2025
  Up arrow24,000 or 22,400 by 11/15/2025
  Up arrow6,900 or 6,600 by 11/15/2025
As of 10/27/2025
  Indus: 47,545 +337.47 +0.7%  
  Trans: 15,663 +208.50 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,144 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 23,637 +432.62 +1.9%  
  S&P 500: 6,875 +83.47 +1.2%  
YTD
 +11.8%  
-1.5%  
 +16.4%  
 +22.4%  
 +16.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 10/14/2025  
  Up arrow49,500 or 46,400 by 11/15/2025
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,200 by 11/01/2025
  Up arrow1,200 or 1,125 by 11/01/2025
  Up arrow24,000 or 22,400 by 11/15/2025
  Up arrow6,900 or 6,600 by 11/15/2025

October 2025 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 10/28/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.7% or 337.47 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 720 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 393 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 327 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 321/586 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 61/125 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring St. Paul Travelers: STA stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AES, ALKS, AMZN, ANIK, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ANET, ARW, ATO, AVY, AVNT, BAX, BBY, BA, BAH, BRKR, BG, CPB, CLS, CF, CSCO, CLX, CNO, CNX, CGNX, GLW, COTY, CCRN, CTS, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DSGR, ^DJI, BOOM, EME, EFX, EL, EXPD, FICO, FIVN, FLS, FNV, FCX, FDP, GAP, GS, GOOGL, GGG, THG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HNI, HOV, HUM, ITW, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, KBH, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LH, LRCX, LEN, LOW, LXU, M, MGY, MAS, MTRN, MRCY, META, MSFT, MS, MOS, ^IXIC, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, ON, OR, OUT, OMI, PANW, PLXS, PPG, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RCKY, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SGI, SO, SCS, SSYS, TKR, TOL, UHAL, UIS, VFC, VMI, WAT, WU, WPM, WDAY, ZBRA, IAI, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, AIQ, BOTZ, QQQ, IYH, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, QLD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PHO, SSO, ROBO, GLD, XHB, XRT, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,899.75    
 Weekly S2  46,047.55  1,147.80   
 Monthly S1  46,222.17  174.62   
 Monthly Pivot  46,774.45  552.28   
 Weekly S1  46,796.07  21.62   
 Weekly Pivot  47,061.40  265.33   
 Daily S2  47,306.46  245.07   
 Low  47,375.96  69.50   
 Open  47,412.80  36.84   
 Daily S1  47,425.53  12.73   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  47,447.99  22.46   
 50% Down from Intraday High  47,470.24  22.25   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  47,492.49  22.25   
 Daily Pivot  47,495.02  2.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  47,544.59  49.57   
 High  47,564.52  19.93   
 Daily R1  47,614.09  49.57   
 Daily R2  47,683.58  69.50   
 Weekly R1  47,809.92  126.34   
 Weekly R2  48,075.25  265.33   
 Monthly R1  48,096.87  21.62   
 Monthly R2  48,649.15  552.28   

Monday 10/27/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I don't have a lot to say about this chart. I drew a trendline connecting the majority of the valleys, just to show how price is climbing. That's line B.

At A, we see the index has gapped upward to a new all-time high.

On this chart, the index has climbed at a good clip since the early April low. What worries me is that there has not been a significant retrace of that climb. When will it happen and how far will price drop? I leave you to ponder that.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 515.97 points.
Tuesday: Up 218.16 points.
Wednesday: Down 334.33 points.
Thursday: Up 144.2 points.
Friday: Up 472.51 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1016.51 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 524.86 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 127.68 points or 1.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 47,326.73 on 10/24/2025.
     28.9% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 23,261.26 on 10/24/2025.
     57.0% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 6,807.11 on 10/24/2025.
     40.5% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  46,600  46,904  47,115  47,419  47,630 
Weekly  45,935  46,571  46,949  47,585  47,963 
Monthly  44,787  45,997  46,662  47,872  48,537 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,755  6,773  6,790  6,809  6,825 
Weekly  6,600  6,696  6,751  6,847  6,903 
Monthly  6,460  6,626  6,717  6,882  6,973 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  23,065  23,135  23,198  23,268  23,331 
Weekly  22,246  22,726  22,993  23,473  23,741 
Monthly  21,809  22,507  22,884  23,582  23,959 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 212 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AES, ALK, ALB, ALKS, AEE, AXP, AFG, AMWD, AME, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ANET, ARW, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BZH, BBY, BA, BSX, BRKR, BBW, CDNS, CPB, CE, CLS, CNP, CF, CIEN, CLX, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CMCO, ED, CAG, COP, GLW, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJI, EBAY, EME, EXPD, FIVN, FLS, FDP, FRD, GAP, GD, GOOGL, HLIT, HSII, HON, HOV, INCY, INTC, TILE, INTU, KBH, KEYS, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LEN, LNC, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MTSI, M, MGY, MAN, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MU, ^IXIC, NOV, NTAP, NEU, NI, NWPX, ORI, OMC, OR, OUT, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PINC, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RNG, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SBH, SIGI, NOW, SHOP, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TXN, MZTI, TTD, TKR, TOL, RIG, TWLO, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, WAT, WU, WPM, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, AIQ, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IXN, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IHI, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, QLD, SSO, ROBO, XLP, XHB, XRT, SPY, XLK, SMH, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Telecom. Equipment3. Telecom. Equipment
4. Electronics4. Electronics
5. Diversified Co.5. Apparel
6. Apparel6. Diversified Co.
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Machinery8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Computers and Peripherals9. Machinery
10. Long ETFs10. Shoe
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Food Processing50. Insurance (Diversified)
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Packaging and Container
52. Insurance (Diversified)52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Chemical (Basic)54. IT Services
55. IT Services55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Information Services56. Information Services
57. Medical Services57. Medical Services
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Human Resources59. Human Resources
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 10/24/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ADTN, AA, ALKS, AEE, AAPL, ATR, ANET, ARW, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BZH, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BSX, CACI, CPB, CLS, CNP, CENX, CVX, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CNX, CGNX, ED, CAG, COP, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, FANG, ^DJT, D, DTE, DUK, EMN, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FIVN, FLS, FDP, GAP, GILD, GFS, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HP, HON, HOV, ILMN, NSP, IBP, ITGR, TILE, ISRG, KALU, KBH, KEYS, KMB, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, LEN, LLY, LOW, LXU, M, MAS, MTDR, MTRN, MRCY, MOS, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NWL, NI, NWPX, NTNX, ORI, OUT, OMI, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PCG, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PSTG, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RJF, RHI, RCKY, ROG, RES, SBH, SMTC, SKYW, SO, SPSC, SSYS, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TER, MZTI, TKR, TJX, TOL, RIG, TWLO, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WAT, WPM, WMB, WSC, ZBRA, IYE, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, IGV, IXC, ILF, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWY, EWD, PXJ, XLP, XLE, XHB, XRT, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMGNUgly double bottom      09/26/202510/13/2025Biotechnology
APADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/10/202510/20/2025Petroleum (Producing)
BMITriple bottom      09/17/202510/10/2025Precision Instrument
BBYPipe bottom      10/06/202510/13/2025Retail (Special Lines)
BFHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/06/202510/10/2025Information Services
CALMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/13/202510/20/2025Food Processing
CLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/07/202510/13/2025Household Products
CRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/25/202510/10/2025Diversified Co.
DHRUgly double bottom      09/25/202510/10/2025Medical Services
DTETriangle, ascending      10/03/202510/21/2025Electric Utility (Central)
EXPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/15/202510/22/2025Cement and Aggregates
FDSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/06/202510/16/2025Information Services
FNVHead-and-shoulders top      09/22/202510/16/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
HSYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/16/202510/07/2025Food Processing
IIINTriple top      09/05/202509/17/2025Building Materials
ITGRDead-cat bounce      10/23/202510/23/2025Electronics
TILEPipe bottom      10/06/202510/13/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
ISRGTriple bottom      09/16/202510/14/2025Medical Supplies
MPipe bottom      10/06/202510/13/2025Retail Store
MTRXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/10/202510/10/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/22/202510/10/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NTAPDiamond bottom      09/30/202510/22/2025Computers and Peripherals
NOVTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/30/202510/10/2025Precision Instrument
OMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/14/2025Advertising
ORHead-and-shoulders top      10/01/202510/16/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
OUTPipe bottom      10/06/202510/13/2025Advertising
OMIPipe bottom      10/06/202510/13/2025Medical Supplies
PATKDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/14/202510/21/2025Retail Building Supply
PETSHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/02/202510/21/2025Medical Services
RRCPipe top      09/29/202510/06/2025Petroleum (Producing)
SLBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/13/202510/17/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SIGITriple top      10/07/202510/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TFXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/25/202510/14/2025Diversified Co.
TXTPipe top      09/29/202510/06/2025Diversified Co.
RIGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/30/202510/10/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/09/202510/15/2025Building Materials
UPSTriple bottom      09/11/202510/14/2025Air Transport
VMIBroadening top      10/09/202510/21/2025Metal Fabricating
WPMHorn top      09/29/202510/13/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
WWDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/10/202510/17/2025Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 10/23/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.9% or -213.27 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 232 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 113 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 119 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 302/545 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/180 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 day scale.

I show a 5-day picture of the Nasdaq composite. I think the scale is 10 minutes per bar.

ABC is a buying opportunity called a triple bottom. It's a chart pattern. Buy when the index closes above the top of it. Target would be the height of the pattern (from lowest valley to highest peak between the three bottoms) added to the top of the pattern. Eyeballing it says that price met the target.

Line D highlights a new chart pattern that I call a multi-peak. It often behaves as a bull trap, showing a bullish pattern near the end, enticing bullish investors to buy before reversing and starting a move lower.

I don't see any bullish pattern near the end of the multi-peak but the resulting drop is pronounced. See the link for more details on this pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, AES, AXP, AMWD, AME, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ACGL, ANET, ARW, ASH, AVY, AVNT, BSET, BBY, BIO, BSX, BBW, CPB, CNA, CNX, CGNX, CMCO, ED, GLW, COST, CR, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, XRAY, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EXPD, FIVN, FLS, FWRD, FNV, FDP, FRD, GAP, GNW, GILD, GL, HTLD, HOV, HWM, HURC, IEX, NSP, ITGR, TILE, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LH, LEN, LOW, M, MANH, MAS, MYGN, NOV, NWPX, OLN, OR, OUT, OMI, PETS, PCG, PLXS, PPG, PG, QCOM, RMBS, ROK, RES, R, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SRE, SKYW, SSYS, TDOC, TXN, TMO, TKR, TJX, TOL, RIG, TG, VFC, VMI, VMC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WPM, WMB, WSM, WSC, WWD, ZBRA, IHI, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,578.75    
 Weekly S2  21,940.53  361.77   
 Monthly S1  22,159.58  219.05   
 Daily S2  22,279.97  120.40   
 Weekly S1  22,340.46  60.49   
 Daily S1  22,510.19  169.72   
 Low  22,514.08  3.89   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  22,613.67  99.59   
 Monthly Pivot  22,639.74  26.08   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,691.45  51.71   
 Close  22,740.40  48.95   
 Daily Pivot  22,744.29  3.89   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,746.24  1.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,801.03  54.79   
 Open  22,940.79  139.76   
 Daily R1  22,974.51  33.72   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  22,978.40  3.89   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  23,013.60  35.20   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  23,208.61  195.01   
 Monthly R1  23,220.57  11.95   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  23,286.81  66.24   
 Monthly R2  23,700.73  413.93   

Wednesday 10/22/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

There's not a lot to say about the chart. The CPI is 86.7 which is bullish. You can see the bullishness on the far right of the chart, as a vertical green bar. Signals can change for up to a week, so the green bar could disappear.

We saw a signal last week, when the day after the big plunge (circled in red) turned the CPI bar green. In this chart, it's white (neutral).

The inset at the bottom, red square, shows the CPI line without signal changes.

The only thing left to say is that the CPI is near the top of the scale (100). Often that suggests a plunge in the CPI followed by the index dropping but not plunging. You can see an example of that in the July period where the index peaked and plunged. The index dropped for a day or two, a small decline, but then continued rising. I like to say that once you see a repeatable pattern forming, it stops working so you can't depend on it. In this case, I think the index will continue rising, but that's just a guess.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AXP, APH, AAPL, ANET, ARW, ATO, AVNT, BMI, BALL, BBY, BIO, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BG, CAL, CPB, CNC, CF, CRL, CLF, CNX, CGNX, COP, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJT, D, DTE, DUK, EMN, EFX, EL, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, FIVN, FLS, FNV, FDP, GAP, HTLD, HOLX, HOV, IDA, IEX, NSP, TILE, JBLU, KBH, K, KLAC, KSS, LH, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MAS, NOV, NTAP, NJR, NWPX, OR, OUT, OMI, PETS, PNW, PLXS, PPG, QCOM, RMBS, RTX, RGLD, RES, SBH, SRE, SLGN, LUV, SSYS, TDOC, TFX, TMO, TKR, TOL, TREX, VFC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WPM, WMB, ZBRA, ITA, IGE, IEO, ITB, EWZ, EEM, EZA, EWD, EWT, PPA, PXJ, XLY, XHB, XRT, XAR. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 10/21/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.1% or 515.97 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 393 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 225 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 168 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 57.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 320/585 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 61/125 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Stancorp Financial: SFG stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: A, AKAM, ALL, AVNT, AXS, BAX, BBY, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BSX, BBW, CALM, CX, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CLX, CNX, CXW, COTY, CR, CROX, FANG, DDS, D, DOV, DTE, DUK, EME, EQT, EL, FAST, FISV, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GOOGL, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HOLX, INCY, ITGR, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, LMT, LOW, MTRN, MRK, MRCY, MU, MSFT, ^IXIC, NFLX, NI, NWPX, ON, OUT, OMI, PFE, POR, PHM, RRC, RTX, ROK, RES, R, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SCI, SHOP, LUV, SR, TGT, TER, TXN, TXT, TG, VECO, WRB, WMT, WSO, WEX, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, AIQ, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IXN, ILF, SOXX, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, QLD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLV, XLK, UNG, USO, SMH, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,805.14    
 Weekly S2  45,042.67  237.53   
 Monthly S1  45,755.86  713.19   
 Weekly S1  45,874.63  118.77   
 Daily S2  46,146.52  271.89   
 Weekly Pivot  46,283.98  137.46   
 Low  46,312.88  28.89   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  46,312.90  0.02   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  46,402.75  89.85   
 Daily S1  46,426.55  23.80   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  46,483.40  56.85   
 50% Down from Intraday High  46,536.07  52.67   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  46,588.75  52.68   
 Daily Pivot  46,592.91  4.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  46,706.58  113.67   
 High  46,759.27  52.69   
 Daily R1  46,872.94  113.67   
 Daily R2  47,039.30  166.36   
 Weekly R1  47,115.94  76.64   
 Monthly R1  47,353.47  237.53   
 Weekly R2  47,525.29  171.82   
 Monthly R2  48,000.36  475.07   

Monday 10/20/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the weekly scale. It shows the behavior of the index from the Biden presidency to the Trump term.

The vertical green line is the approximate date where Trump was inaugurated. He made noises about imposing tariffs and down went the index. As the chart shows, the index bottomed at D.

The twin peaks AB is a double top. It confirms as valid when the index closed below the horizontal red line at C.

Since bottoming at D, the index has soared. More tariff noise caused the index to plunge again just days ago. In a few weeks, when the new tariffs are imposed (Nov 1, assuming Trump doesn't change his mind), we could see more market turbulence. If you missed the recent dip, you may have another opportunity to buy-the-dip as we near November 1.

Check the index before the close each day, and if you see a large decline, place buy orders that same day on your favorite securities. In the coming days and weeks, you'll likely see a recovery (no guarantee, of course).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 587.98 points.
Tuesday: Up 202.88 points.
Wednesday: Down 17.15 points.
Thursday: Down 301.07 points.
Friday: Up 238.37 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 711.01 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 475.55 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 111.5 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.8% down from the high of 47,049.64 on 10/03/2025.
     26.2% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     1.9% down from the high of 23,119.91 on 10/10/2025.
     53.4% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 6,770.25 on 10/07/2025.
     37.8% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  45,662  45,926  46,127  46,391  46,591 
Weekly  44,871  45,531  46,112  46,772  47,353 
Monthly  44,633  45,412  46,231  47,009  47,828 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,574  6,619  6,649  6,694  6,724 
Weekly  6,479  6,571  6,648  6,740  6,817 
Monthly  6,442  6,553  6,662  6,773  6,881 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  22,265  22,472  22,604  22,812  22,944 
Weekly  21,920  22,300  22,594  22,973  23,267 
Monthly  21,559  22,119  22,620  23,180  23,681 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, AMGN, AR, APA, AVA, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, BMY, BBW, CALM, CAL, CHKP, CSCO, CLX, CNX, CMCO, COTY, CR, DVN, FANG, ^DJU, DUK, EXP, EG, EXPD, XOM, FDX, FDP, GAP, GNW, GOOGL, GFF, HLIT, IBP, ITGR, KALU, KBH, K, KLAC, LRCX, LDOS, LOW, MHO, MANH, MTRX, MRCY, NEE, NOVT, ORI, OTEX, PETS, PFE, POR, PINC, PG, KWR, RRC, RLI, ROP, R, SAIA, SAND, SEE, SO, SPSC, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXT, TOL, TREX, UIS, UNH, VECO, VRTX, IAI, IDU, ICF, IYH, ITB, EWO, EWC, EWG, EWW, EWP, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, GLD, XLV, XLU, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Telecom. Equipment3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Electronics4. Electronics
5. Apparel5. Apparel
6. Diversified Co.6. Machinery
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Diversified Co.
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Machinery9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Shoe10. Metals and Mining (Div.)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Diversified)50. Packaging and Container
51. Packaging and Container51. Food Processing
52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)52. Chemical (Basic)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Retail Building Supply
54. IT Services54. IT Services
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Information Services
56. Information Services56. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
57. Medical Services57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. Medical Services
59. Human Resources59. Human Resources
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 10/17/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AFL, A, ALB, AMWD, AR, AON, APA, ACGL, ADM, AWI, AXS, BAX, BIIB, BKNG, BFH, BMY, BBW, BLDR, BG, CAL, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNX, CMCO, CMTL, ED, COST, DVN, FANG, DDS, DSGR, ^DJU, DTE, DUK, EXP, ECL, EQT, EVRG, XOM, FDS, FRD, GNW, GFF, THG, HLIT, HIG, HSY, HUBG, JBHT, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, M, MANH, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, META, MU, NOV, NFLX, NEU, NEE, NWPX, OGE, OMC, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PKE, PETS, PFE, PNW, POR, PPL, PHM, KWR, RRC, REGN, RLI, ROL, ROST, R, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, SCI, SO, LUV, SWX, TFX, TER, TXT, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TRV, UIS, UNH, VECO, VEEV, WRB, WMT, WMB, IDU, IHF, IEV, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, XLP, GLD, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMHead-and-shoulders top      08/13/202510/03/2025Diversified Co.
ABTHead-and-shoulders top      09/12/202510/01/2025Medical Supplies
ALGTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/10/2025Air Transport
ALLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/30/202510/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ARHead-and-shoulders top      09/25/202510/09/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
ARWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/23/202510/03/2025Electronics
AIZDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/07/202510/14/2025Insurance (Diversified)
AVADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/13/2025Electric Utility (West)
BMRNBroadening bottom      09/15/202510/14/2025Biotechnology
BADouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/26/202510/08/2025Aerospace/Defense
BOOTTriple bottom      10/01/202510/10/2025Shoe
CDNSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/31/202509/19/2025Computer Software and Svcs
CFDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/25/202510/08/2025Chemical (Basic)
CLNEBroadening top      09/19/202510/16/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
CNADouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/08/202510/14/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CGNXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/23/202510/08/2025Precision Instrument
COPDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/02/202509/26/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
FANGHead-and-shoulders top      09/26/202510/09/2025Petroleum (Producing)
BOOMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/23/202510/01/2025Metal Fabricating
XOMHead-and-shoulders top      09/17/202510/09/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
GILDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/16/202510/02/2025Biotechnology
HLITBroadening top      09/08/202510/10/2025Telecom. Equipment
HIGTriple top      08/22/202510/08/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HNIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/08/202510/03/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
HUBGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/10/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IDXXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/25/202510/10/2025Drug
IIINDead-cat bounce      10/16/202510/16/2025Building Materials
IPIHead-and-shoulders top      08/28/202510/07/2025Chemical (Diversified)
KMTTriple bottom      09/17/202510/10/2025Metal Fabricating
KSSHead-and-shoulders top      09/05/202510/03/2025Retail Store
LHXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/30/202510/09/2025Aerospace/Defense
LNCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/23/202510/06/2025Insurance (Life)
MTSIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/30/202510/10/2025Semiconductor
MOSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/25/202510/08/2025Chemical (Diversified)
NFGPipe top      09/22/202509/29/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
PENHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/25/202510/07/2025Medical Supplies
PEGTriple bottom      09/18/202510/10/2025Electric Utility (East)
QCOMDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/24/202510/07/2025Telecom. Equipment
RRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/09/2025Petroleum (Producing)
ROKBroadening top      09/16/202510/10/2025Diversified Co.
SSYSBig M      09/24/202510/07/2025Electronics
TEVAFalling wedge      10/02/202510/16/2025Drug
TDGHead-and-shoulders top      09/24/202510/14/2025Aerospace/Defense
VLOPipe top      09/22/202509/29/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
VMCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/01/202510/15/2025Cement and Aggregates
WMTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/02/202510/09/2025Retail Store
WSMThree Falling Peaks      08/13/202510/03/2025Retail (Special Lines)

 

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Thursday 10/16/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.7% or 148.38 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 466 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 279 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 187 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 59.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 302/544 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/180 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite, 5-days.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite for the last 5 days.

Anatomy of a dead-cat bounce (DCB) in stocks, compared to the index.

A, with the slanting red line, is the event decline. It's the drop when news hits the wires and the market reacts. In stocks, an event decline lasts an average of 7 days (calendar not trading days) and drops price an average of 31%. It's a serious drop (I only catalogued drops of 15% or higher).

B is the bounce. If price gapped down during the event decline, in 22% of the cases, the gap closes (price bounces high enough to cover the gap). In 3 months only 38% have closed the gap. In 6 months, the total rises to 58%. So the event is serious and the market's reaction to it is serious.

C is the post bounce decline. In stocks we see them tumble again, bottoming 18% below the low posted during the event decline (during the drop to the bottom of line A). The new drop averages 49 days to hit bottom at C.

Companies suffering a DCB because of a bad earnings surprise can help stop the decline and hasten a recovery by announcing a share buyback. The good news tends to put a floor under the stock and we often see a faster recovery.

Large event declines will tend to see larger bounces.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AES, APD, ALKS, AMWD, APOG, ADM, ARW, AIZ, AXS, BZH, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BFH, BCO, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CX, COR, CHKP, CLNE, CLX, CNX, CTSH, CTS, DECK, FANG, DDS, ^DJU, DUK, EXP, EBAY, ECL, EMR, EPAM, EQT, EXPI, EZPW, FDS, FISV, FORM, GAP, IT, GD, GNW, GFF, GES, HLIT, HIG, HL, HURC, IPAR, IPG, IPI, K, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, LDOS, M, MRCY, NFLX, NWL, NWPX, OXY, OMC, ASGN, PANW, PKE, PCTY, PFE, PINC, PGR, QTWO, RRC, RTX, RNG, R, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TER, TXN, TXT, MZTI, TZOO, UGI, VMI, VECO, VEEV, VC, WSO, IYC, IHE, IDU, IHF, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWS, EWY, PHO, GLD, XHB, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,118.73    
 Weekly S2  21,734.18  615.45   
 Monthly S1  21,894.40  160.22   
 Weekly S1  22,202.13  307.73   
 Daily S2  22,232.62  30.49   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  22,427.79  195.17   
 Daily S1  22,451.35  23.56   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  22,507.16  55.81   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,585.90  78.74   
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,634.74  48.84   
 Daily Pivot  22,646.52  11.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  22,661.02  14.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  22,670.08  9.06   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,683.58  13.50   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  22,738.50  54.92   
 High  22,841.69  103.19   
 Daily R1  22,865.25  23.56   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  23,060.42  195.17   
 Weekly R1  23,128.97  68.55   
 Monthly R1  23,282.83  153.86   
 Weekly R2  23,587.86  305.03   
 Monthly R2  23,895.59  307.73   

Wednesday 10/15/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal from the indicator is bullish, as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

Big moves one day can flip the signal from bearish to bullish, like it did today (Tuesday). That's because signals can change for up to a week.

I show the rise in the inset, lower right corner.

Friday's big drop on Trump Tariff worries remind me of a dead-cat bounce event pattern. That's when a security makes a big drop, bounces, and then eases even lower over the coming weeks. With the indices, such as shown here, it's a bit different because the plunge isn't 15% (it was like 3.5%, for the Nasdaq and less for the other indices). However, today and yesterday might be the bounce with a decline resuming.

I suspect that's unlikely unless Trump ratchets up the conflict with China. November 1, when the 100% tariffs are set to be imposed will see Trump blink, I think, and back down. Maybe both sides can make nice.

If not, then look for the markets to spike up and down. Bring your own seatbelt. You may need it.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADTN, ALGT, AMWD, ANIK, ARCB, AGO, BZH, BBY, BIIB, BKH, BOOT, BMY, CBT, CX, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CCRN, CSGS, FANG, DUK, EBAY, EQT, EXC, EXPI, FLS, FTV, GL, HLIT, HP, DHI, HUM, IEX, NSP, IIIN, TILE, IPG, IRM, JBLU, KBH, KFRC, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, LPLA, MANH, MA, MDT, MRCY, NFLX, NUS, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OXM, PATK, PFE, PINC, KWR, RRC, RNG, R, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, SLGN, SGI, SO, SWX, SNPS, TFX, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TRV, TZOO, UIS, UNM, VECO, VEEV, VRSN, WMT, WU, WLK, WSC, ZBRA, IYK, ICF, IAT, IYZ, MXI, ITB, IHI, EWA, EWO, EPP, THD, TUR, PBE, PEJ, XHB, UNG, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 10/14/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.3% or 587.98 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 274 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 148 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 126 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 319/584 or 54.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 61/125 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Steelcase: SCS, Andrew's pitchfork.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEO, AMN, ARCB, ANET, AXS, BOOT, BSX, BMY, BLDR, BG, CALM, CX, CDAY, CVX, CLX, CNX, CMCO, CCRN, CW, DECK, XRAY, FANG, DDS, EIX, EOG, EVH, XOM, FAST, FMC, FORM, GE, GILD, GS, GOOGL, GES, HBI, HIG, HL, HD, HUM, IDXX, IIIN, TILE, KLIC, LRCX, LLY, MTRX, MRK, MU, MCO, NFG, NEE, OXY, ON, OUT, PANW, PG, PGR, KWR, RMBS, RNG, RCKY, ROG, RGLD, SAND, SCS, TPR, TTD, TG, UIS, VFC, VLO, VMI, WMT, IYC, IHE, FXI, AIQ, ICF, ILF, SLV, ITB, EWO, EWK, EWM, EZA, EWT, THD, DBA, PEJ, GLD, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,359.74    
 Weekly S2  44,716.15  356.41   
 Monthly S1  45,213.66  497.51   
 Weekly S1  45,391.87  178.21   
 Daily S2  45,518.15  126.28   
 Low  45,698.46  180.31   
 Open  45,698.50  0.04   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  45,792.86  94.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  45,872.28  79.42   
 50% Down from Intraday High  45,925.98  53.70   
 Daily Pivot  45,973.18  47.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  45,979.67  6.49   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  46,067.58  87.91   
 Monthly Pivot  46,131.65  64.07   
 Weekly Pivot  46,146.43  14.79   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  46,153.49  7.05   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  46,247.89  94.41   
 Daily R2  46,428.21  180.31   
 Weekly R1  46,822.15  393.94   
 Monthly R1  46,985.57  163.42   
 Weekly R2  47,576.71  591.14   
 Monthly R2  47,903.56  326.84   

Monday 10/13/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale. It looks complex, but it's not.

Let's start with CD, which is a double top. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the low between the two peaks. That happened at E, shown by the violet line.

B shows how today's (Friday's) close, based on Trump's China tariff fears, sent the index plunging through the red trendline. I drew the red trendline under the price valleys. Trendlines show areas of support.

Point A is a knot which I've proven is a potent source of support or resistance. That support/resistance doesn't last forever and price could blow through it anyway, but it looks like a good short-term down target.

I have some cash in one of my accounts. I'll probably spend it on an ETF next week, hopefully just as the snapback rally begins.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 63.31 points.
Tuesday: Up 129.03 points.
Wednesday: Down 222.22 points.
Thursday: Down 243.36 points.
Friday: Down 878.82 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1278.68 points or 2.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 576.08 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 163.28 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 47,049.64 on 10/03/2025.
     24.2% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     4.0% down from the high of 23,119.91 on 10/10/2025.
     50.2% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     3.2% down from the high of 6,770.25 on 10/07/2025.
     35.5% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  44,693  45,086  45,864  46,257  47,035 
Weekly  44,520  45,000  45,950  46,430  47,381 
Monthly  44,164  44,822  45,936  46,594  47,708 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,410  6,481  6,622  6,693  6,834 
Weekly  6,405  6,479  6,625  6,698  6,844 
Monthly  6,315  6,434  6,602  6,721  6,889 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  21,579  21,892  22,506  22,819  23,433 
Weekly  21,579  21,892  22,506  22,819  23,433 
Monthly  20,964  21,584  22,352  22,972  23,740 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

Here's a symbol list of 209 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, ABM, ADTN, AEIS, AKAM, AEO, AMGN, APH, ANIK, AR, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ANET, AWI, ARW, AZTA, BAX, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BA, BOOT, BSX, BRC, BFH, BLDR, CE, CLS, COR, CNC, CVX, CIEN, CINF, CLX, CNX, CMTL, COP, GLW, COST, COTY, CRH, CSGS, DVN, BOOM, EIX, EMR, EVH, FICO, FAST, FIS, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, IT, GS, GES, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HELE, HP, HSY, HUM, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, PODD, ITGR, INTC, TILE, IPG, IPI, KALU, KBH, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LPLA, MANH, MAN, MTRN, MRK, MLKN, MCO, MS, MYGN, NFG, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PFG, PG, PSTG, RL, RRC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SCCO, SR, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TGT, TDY, TFX, TER, TXN, TTD, TMO, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, UIS, UPS, UNH, VLO, VMI, WU, WLK, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FDN, IYH, IAT, IGV, IEO, IYF, ITB, EWA, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWP, EWD, THD, EWU, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, UNG, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Telecom. Equipment2. Semiconductor
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Telecom. Equipment
4. Electronics4. Electronics
5. Apparel5. Apparel
6. Machinery6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Diversified Co.7. Machinery
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Diversified Co.
10. Metals and Mining (Div.)10. Homebuilding
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Packaging and Container50. Packaging and Container
51. Food Processing51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
52. Chemical (Basic)52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Retail Building Supply53. Chemical (Basic)
54. IT Services54. Natural Gas (Diversified)
55. Information Services55. Insurance (Diversified)
56. Trucking/Transp. Leasing56. Information Services
57. Household Products57. Medical Services
58. Medical Services58. Household Products
59. Human Resources59. Short ETFs
60. Short ETFs60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 10/10/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABM, ALB, AR, APA, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ARW, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BAX, BMRN, BKH, BA, BAH, BRC, BFH, BLDR, CE, CX, CNC, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNO, CNX, CMTL, COTY, CRH, CTS, DECK, XRAY, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EMN, EIX, EMR, EPAM, EQT, EG, XOM, FDX, FLS, FWRD, FDP, GME, GILD, GGG, THG, HIG, HE, HTLD, HELE, HP, HSIC, HSY, HON, DHI, HUBG, HUM, IEX, ILMN, ITGR, TILE, IPG, IRM, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LEN, MANH, MAS, MA, MTDR, MTRN, NFG, NEU, NKE, NI, NUS, NVDA, ASGN, OUT, OMI, PCG, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, RL, RRC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, RGLD, RES, R, SAND, SAIC, SMG, SRE, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SR, SCS, TGT, TDY, TFX, TKR, TRV, TREX, UIS, UPS, VLO, VMI, WU, WLK, WEX, ITA, IYM, IYC, IDU, FXI, ICF, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IEO, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PPA, PEJ, XLP, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADBEHead-and-shoulders top      09/12/202509/29/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AKAMTriple bottom      09/17/202510/01/2025E-Commerce
ALRMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/22/202508/29/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/11/202509/25/2025Aerospace/Defense
AMZNTriple bottom      09/25/202510/06/2025Internet
ANIKTriangle, ascending      09/05/202510/09/2025Biotechnology
APOGTriple top      09/23/202510/03/2025Building Materials
ARCBPipe bottom      09/22/202509/29/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ACGLHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/10/202510/02/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/22/202510/01/2025Food Processing
ATOBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/25/202509/24/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
ADSKBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/11/202510/06/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AXSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/17/202510/02/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BZHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/05/202509/17/2025Homebuilding
CPBRectangle top      09/03/202509/24/2025Food Processing
CHKPDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/23/202509/30/2025E-Commerce
CVXTriple top      09/02/202509/26/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
CIENFlag, high and tight      08/20/202510/09/2025Telecom. Equipment
CNADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/19/202510/02/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COSTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/29/202510/07/2025Retail Store
CCKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/11/202509/29/2025Packaging and Container
EBAYRoof, inverted      09/04/202510/09/2025Internet
EMRBroadening bottom      08/21/202509/26/2025Computers and Peripherals
ELDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/12/202509/25/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/11/202509/18/2025Machinery
FRDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/09/202509/22/2025Building Materials
GPNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/16/202509/30/2025Computer Software and Svcs
HELEDead-cat bounce      10/09/202510/09/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
DHIPipe top      09/02/202509/08/2025Homebuilding
HOVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/19/202509/17/2025Homebuilding
HUBGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/05/202509/17/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCTriangle, symmetrical      08/22/202510/09/2025Machinery
INCYBroadening top      08/18/202510/02/2025Drug
TILEPipe top      09/15/202509/22/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
IRMUgly double bottom      09/03/202509/29/2025Industrial Services
KBHHead-and-shoulders complex top      08/22/202510/03/2025Homebuilding
KMTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/17/202509/25/2025Metal Fabricating
LZBHead-and-shoulders top      09/17/202510/03/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
MANHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/01/202510/07/2025IT Services
RCKYTriple top      08/26/202510/03/2025Shoe
SIGIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/18/202509/16/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SWXTriangle, ascending      08/21/202510/09/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/11/202509/25/2025Air Transport

 

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Thursday 10/9/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.1% or 255.02 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 213 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 135 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 78 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 302/543 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/180 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 10 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 10-minute scale.

I drew three red trendlines under the valleys as price moved higher, just to see their slope. Of course, it matters where you start and end the lines, but all three have approximately the same slope.

Peaks AB form a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the valley between the two peaks. Confirmation changed the twin peaks into a valid chart pattern.

After confirmation, the index continued lower, giving traders a big profit opportunity. The drop exceeded the measure rule target, which is the height of the double top (from A to C) subtracted from C.

Looking forward, I'm tempted to write that the same retrace-rise will continue, and it might, but often once you notice a cyclic pattern, the cycle ends.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AA, AMZN, AEO, AME, APA, ARCB, ADM, BAX, BAH, BRC, BLDR, CE, COR, CF, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CRH, DTE, EQT, EG, EXPD, XOM, FDX, FLS, FORM, FCX, FDP, GME, GAP, GIS, GS, GGG, HIG, HE, HOLX, DHI, HUBG, ILMN, IBP, KBH, KELYA, KLAC, LAMR, LEN, LXU, MHO, MAS, MA, MLI, NBR, NFG, OXY, PTEN, PEN, PCG, PPL, PG, PHM, RGS, RNG, RHI, RCKY, SAIA, SAIC, SRE, NOW, SO, SSYS, TDY, TXN, TOL, TRV, UNH, VLO, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WWD, ZBRA, IYE, IAT, IYZ, IEV, IGV, IXC, SLV, IEO, ITB, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EZA, EWP, EWD, DBA, PEJ, PHO, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLI, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,441.57    
 Monthly S1  21,742.48  1,300.90   
 Monthly Pivot  22,333.95  591.48   
 Weekly S2  22,389.45  55.50   
 Weekly S1  22,716.42  326.96   
 Daily S2  22,778.26  61.84   
 Weekly Pivot  22,820.92  42.66   
 Low  22,845.42  24.50   
 Open  22,852.32  6.90   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  22,910.82  58.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,921.71  10.89   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,945.28  23.57   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,968.85  23.57   
 Daily Pivot  22,977.98  9.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  23,043.38  65.40   
 High  23,045.14  1.76   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  23,110.54  65.40   
 Weekly R1  23,147.89  37.35   
 Daily R2  23,177.70  29.81   
 Weekly R2  23,252.39  74.69   
 Monthly R1  23,634.86  382.46   
 Monthly R2  24,226.33  591.48   

Wednesday 10/8/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Not much has changed from a week ago. The indicator is still waffling between neutral and bearish. Today (Tuesday night), it's bearish with a reading of 32.3.

If you look back at February, you'll see the same kind of white-red bar combination. Notice how the index dropped (to the April low) after the last bearish signal. I don't know if we can expect that kind of decline now.

Indeed, we could see the indicator bounce back to neutral even as the index rises. I'd be cautious, though. There is going to be a retrace, but I don't know when or how big it'll be.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 189 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AFL, A, AKAM, AEO, AEP, ANIK, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AVY, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, CAL, CE, CX, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CR, CTS, CW, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, EXP, EMN, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FDX, FIS, FORM, FRD, GME, GIS, GS, GGG, GFF, HELE, DHI, HUN, ILMN, ITGR, TILE, INTU, KBH, K, KFRC, KLAC, KLIC, LEN, LNC, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MRCY, MS, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NTAP, NEE, NUS, NTNX, NVDA, ASGN, ON, OUT, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PYPL, PETS, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PSTG, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RNG, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ROST, RGLD, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SO, SPSC, SSYS, TECH, TDOC, TDY, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TDG, RIG, UIS, UNM, VLO, VRTX, VMC, WAT, WLK, WWD, WDAY, IYM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, ICF, IXN, ITB, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, PBE, PEJ, PHO, XHB, XLI, XRT, XLU, UNG, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 10/7/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -63.31 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1409 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 737 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 672 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 318/583 or 54.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 61/125 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Peru Copper: PCU, support and resistance.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AMD, AES, AFL, ALK, ALL, AEO, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, ANET, AVNT, AZTA, BAX, BZH, BBY, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BLDR, CRL, CLX, CMTL, CSGP, CSGS, XRAY, FANG, DDS, DTE, EFX, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FISV, FLS, FORM, FRD, GME, GAP, GIS, GNW, GFS, GFF, HTLD, HELE, HSIC, HOLX, DHI, HOV, TILE, IPG, INTU, KALU, KBH, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LNC, MHO, MANH, MKTX, MAS, MOS, NFLX, NWL, NWPX, ORI, PTEN, PETS, PCG, PPG, PEG, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RGS, RNG, ROK, RGLD, RES, SAND, SEE, SIGI, SHW, SHOP, SO, SR, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TTD, TREX, UNM, VFC, VRTX, WU, WMB, IYK, IYC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IXN, SOXX, IGE, ITB, EWJ, EWY, TUR, ROBO, GLD, XHB, XLI, XRT, XAR, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  44,129.44    
 Monthly S1  45,412.21  1,282.77   
 Weekly S2  45,670.15  257.94   
 Weekly S1  46,182.56  512.41   
 Monthly Pivot  46,230.92  48.36   
 Daily S2  46,236.64  5.71   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  46,426.96  190.32   
 Daily S1  46,465.80  38.84   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  46,587.21  121.40   
 Weekly Pivot  46,616.10  28.89   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  46,636.70  20.60   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  46,656.13  19.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  46,686.20  30.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  46,694.97  8.77   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  46,776.00  81.03   
 High  46,846.45  70.45   
 Daily R1  46,885.29  38.84   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  47,075.62  190.32   
 Weekly R1  47,128.51  52.89   
 Monthly R1  47,513.69  385.18   
 Weekly R2  47,562.05  48.36   
 Monthly R2  48,332.40  770.35   

Monday 10/6/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale. Let's talk about B first.

B is not a chart of a triple top. Why? Because the index had to close below the lowest valley between the three peaks to confirm it as a valid triple top. Instead, price climbed above the top of the pattern.

Rather, the pattern is an inverted roof chart pattern. That pattern looks like a roof upside down. Price can enter and exit the pattern from either up or down. The breakout direction is random, at 51% upward.

I don't highlight pattern A much nor do I search for them. It's a V-bottom. Due to the way the pattern is defined, the breakout is upward every time. However, it's a mid-list performer (ranking 24 out of 39). The failure rate is 19%, meaning 19% of patterns will fail to see price rise at least 5% above the top of the pattern.

What does this mean? It suggests a continued rise in price but it may struggle to make that climb. The prior peak (in August) will put up resistance to an advance, so it has to push through that.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 68.78 points.
Tuesday: Up 81.82 points.
Wednesday: Up 43.21 points.
Thursday: Up 78.62 points.
Friday: Up 238.56 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 510.99 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 296.44 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 72.09 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 47,049.64 on 10/03/2025.
     27.7% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 22,925.43 on 10/03/2025.
     54.1% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 6,750.87 on 10/03/2025.
     38.9% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  46,309  46,534  46,792  47,016  47,274 
Weekly  45,691  46,225  46,637  47,171  47,583 
Monthly  44,151  45,454  46,252  47,556  48,354 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,679  6,697  6,724  6,743  6,769 
Weekly  6,593  6,654  6,703  6,764  6,812 
Monthly  6,219  6,467  6,609  6,858  6,999 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  22,571  22,676  22,801  22,905  23,030 
Weekly  22,302  22,541  22,733  22,973  23,165 
Monthly  20,354  21,567  22,246  23,460  24,139 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AMD, AFL, APD, ALKS, AMZN, AME, AMN, ACGL, AZTA, BBY, BAH, BLDR, CAL, CX, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CTS, CMI, DDS, DSGR, ^DJU, D, EBAY, EQT, EXPD, FDX, GME, GAP, GNW, GES, HBI, THG, HLIT, HE, HTLD, HL, HELE, HSIC, HWM, JBHT, NSP, TILE, ISRG, JNJ, KALU, K, KMT, KEYS, KSS, LZB, LH, LXU, MAN, MRTN, META, NFLX, NJR, NKE, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, ORI, OTEX, PANW, PETS, PCG, PLXS, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, PSTG, RES, CRM, SEE, SHOP, SCCO, TECH, TEVA, TXN, TTD, VMI, VRTX, VC, WSC, WWD, IYM, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, MXI, SOXX, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWQ, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, XLI, XLB, XRT, XLU, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Semiconductor2. Telecom. Equipment
3. Telecom. Equipment3. Semiconductor
4. Electronics4. Electronics
5. Apparel5. Metals and Mining (Div.)
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Apparel
7. Machinery7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. Metals and Mining (Div.)8. Machinery
9. Diversified Co.9. Securities Brokerage
10. Homebuilding10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Packaging and Container50. IT Services
51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)51. Insurance (Diversified)
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Chemical (Basic)53. Information Services
54. Natural Gas (Diversified)54. Chemical (Basic)
55. Insurance (Diversified)55. Biotechnology
56. Information Services56. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
57. Medical Services57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. Medical Services
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 10/3/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AES, AEP, AME, AMAT, ANET, AGO, ATO, AXS, BSET, BBY, BKH, BFH, BRKR, CDNS, CE, CLS, CNC, CRL, CMCO, CMTL, CXW, CCK, CW, EXP, ECL, EFX, EL, EXPD, FICO, FCX, GME, GILD, GES, HBI, HL, HSII, HELE, HNI, HOLX, HWM, ILMN, INTC, TILE, IPG, JKHY, K, KMT, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, MGY, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, NJR, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, OTEX, PETS, POR, PINC, PFG, PG, KWR, DGX, RGA, RNG, SCI, SLGN, SGI, SR, TGT, TDY, TER, TTD, TRV, TWLO, UHAL, UIS, VFC, VEEV, WSO, WMB, IYM, IYC, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IXN, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWL, THD, PHO, ROBO, XLI, XLB, XLK, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/08/202509/18/2025Semiconductor
AFLUgly double bottom      08/01/202509/08/2025Insurance (Diversified)
AEPDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/08/202509/19/2025Electric Utility (Central)
AIGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/16/202509/22/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMGNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/15/202509/26/2025Biotechnology
AMNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/15/202509/25/2025Human Resources
ARCBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/22/202509/05/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BZHHorn top      09/02/202509/15/2025Homebuilding
BBYPipe bottom      09/15/202509/22/2025Retail (Special Lines)
BRKRUgly double bottom      09/03/202509/29/2025Precision Instrument
CEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/22/202509/05/2025Chemical (Basic)
CFThree Rising Valleys      08/07/202509/18/2025Chemical (Basic)
CROXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/15/202509/25/2025Shoe
CTSTriple top      09/05/202509/18/2025Electronics
^DJTTriangle, symmetrical      09/05/202509/26/2025None
FICOUgly double bottom      08/14/202509/22/2025IT Services
FIVNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/22/202509/23/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FWRDDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/28/202508/28/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
GFSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/11/202509/15/2025Semiconductor
HQYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/05/202509/23/2025Healthcare Information
HPTriple bottom      07/01/202508/05/2025Petroleum (Producing)
ILMNPipe top      07/21/202507/28/2025Biotechnology
INTCFlag, high and tight      08/01/202510/02/2025Semiconductor
INTUDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/22/202509/29/2025Computer Software and Svcs
JNJTriple bottom      08/28/202509/19/2025Medical Supplies
LLYPipe bottom      08/04/202508/11/2025Drug
MGYDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/03/202509/26/2025Petroleum (Producing)
METADouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/13/202509/19/2025E-Commerce
NJRTriple bottom      08/18/202509/17/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
OMIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/05/202509/18/2025Medical Supplies
PFGTriangle, symmetrical      09/15/202509/26/2025Insurance (Diversified)
RLTriple bottom      09/09/202509/25/2025Apparel
RJFDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/23/202509/30/2025Securities Brokerage
RNGTriple top      09/08/202509/22/2025Computer Software and Svcs
SODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/09/202509/19/2025Electric Utility (East)
TECHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/12/202509/25/2025Biotechnology
TEVADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/18/202509/25/2025Drug
TTDPipe bottom      09/15/202509/22/2025Advertising
TRVTriangle, symmetrical      09/04/202509/29/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VEEVDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/17/202509/25/2025Healthcare Information
VRTXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/22/202509/05/2025Biotechnology
VMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/17/202509/25/2025Cement and Aggregates
WATDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/09/202509/17/2025Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 10/2/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.4% or 95.15 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 650 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 414 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 236 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 301/542 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/180 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the 5 days of Nasdaq composite.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite intraday for 5 days.

A triple bottom appears on the chart, shown here by the red line. The green line is what's called a confirmation line. A close above the green line validates the chart pattern as a real triple bottom and signals that price will rise (but not how far).

At B, we see a common occurrence, called a throwback. That's when a chart pattern (a triple bottom in this case) breaks out upward but price soon retraces back to, or close to, the breakout price (the breakout price is the price of the green line). After a throwback completes, the security resumes the rise 65% of the time.

Indeed, the composite climbed on this chart. The rise appears to have met the target (I eyeballed this) which is the height of the triple bottom (from red to green lines) added to the price of the green line.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AKAM, AA, AR, AON, APOG, ATR, ADM, AWI, ATO, AVY, AZTA, BCPC, BBY, BKH, BKNG, BSX, BRC, BFH, BMY, BLDR, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CHD, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, CAG, DHR, ^DJU, D, DTE, EVRG, XOM, FIVN, FTNT, GPN, GES, HBI, THG, HELE, ILMN, NSP, TILE, IPG, JKHY, JNJ, K, KFRC, KLIC, LH, LEG, MANH, MRK, META, MS, NOV, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, OGE, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, OR, OUT, OMI, PYPL, PEN, POR, PINC, PG, DGX, REGN, RNG, SAIC, SO, SCCO, TECH, TTD, TSCO, UGI, UIS, WSC, WDAY, IEZ, IHE, FXL, ICF, IYH, IEV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWU, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLY, XLV, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,427.85    
 Monthly S1  21,591.51  1,163.65   
 Weekly S2  21,964.95  373.44   
 Monthly Pivot  22,196.70  231.76   
 Weekly S1  22,360.05  163.35   
 Daily S2  22,418.99  58.93   
 Low  22,516.74  97.75   
 Open  22,530.90  14.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  22,580.98  50.08   
 Daily S1  22,587.07  6.10   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  22,618.29  31.22   
 50% Down from Intraday High  22,649.66  31.37   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  22,681.03  31.37   
 Daily Pivot  22,684.83  3.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  22,755.16  70.33   
 High  22,782.58  27.42   
 Daily R1  22,852.91  70.33   
 Daily R2  22,950.67  97.75   
 Weekly R1  22,976.08  25.42   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  23,197.01  220.92   
 Monthly R1  23,360.36  163.35   
 Monthly R2  23,965.55  605.20   

Wednesday 10/1/25. 2025 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, ACIW, AYI, AFL, A, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AFG, AME, AIZ, BALL, BBY, BKNG, BRC, BFH, CAL, COR, CNP, CINF, CRH, CTS, ^DJU, DTE, EME, EOG, EVH, EXPI, FAST, FDX, FIVN, FLEX, FNV, GAP, GD, GILD, HBI, HLIT, HL, HELE, HUM, IEX, NSP, IBP, TILE, JKHY, JAZZ, K, KFRC, KLAC, KLIC, MANH, MGEE, MS, ^IXIC, NFLX, NJR, NEE, NI, NOC, NWPX, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PKE, PAYX, PYPL, PLXS, POR, PPL, PINC, PFG, RL, RRC, REGN, RGS, RNG, RHI, ROG, ROL, RGLD, ^GSPC, SAND, SAIC, SIGI, SR, SCS, SSYS, TER, TTD, UIS, UPS, VMI, WSO, WLK, WPM, WOLF, WDAY, DDM, FTEC, QQQ, IAT, IYZ, IGE, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWP, TUR, QLD, PXJ, SSO, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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