Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/05/2025
  Indus: 45,401 -220.43 -0.5%  
  Trans: 15,728 -44.62 -0.3%  
  Utils: 1,079 -0.39 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 21,700 -7.30 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,482 -20.58 -0.3%  
YTD
 +6.7%  
-1.1%  
 +9.7%  
 +12.4%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/29/2025  
  Up arrow46,700 or 43,200 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,200 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow1,150 or 1,050 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow22,700 or 21,000 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow6,700 or 6,300 by 09/15/2025
As of 09/05/2025
  Indus: 45,401 -220.43 -0.5%  
  Trans: 15,728 -44.62 -0.3%  
  Utils: 1,079 -0.39 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 21,700 -7.30 0.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,482 -20.58 -0.3%  
YTD
 +6.7%  
-1.1%  
 +9.7%  
 +12.4%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/29/2025  
  Up arrow46,700 or 43,200 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,200 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow1,150 or 1,050 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow22,700 or 21,000 by 09/15/2025
  Up arrow6,700 or 6,300 by 09/15/2025

September 2025 Headlines

Archives


Monday 9/8/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show several patterns highlighted. At AB, we see a double top. This one confirmed as a valid chart pattern. The downward breakout saw the index fall to E, which is a good showing for the double top.

Pattern C is a diamond top.

Patterns D and E are both double bottoms.

What do the patterns say about what's to come? The diamond is the most recent pattern on the chart. The breakout, depending on how you draw the trendlines around the pattern, is downward. The index is now pulling back. The link describes how price rises 53% of the time after a pullback, so look for the index to rise.

However, 53 is close to random (50), so we should wait to see if a new trend develops (either up, down, or sideways).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 249.07 points.
Wednesday: Down 24.58 points.
Thursday: Up 350.06 points.
Friday: Down 220.43 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 144.02 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 244.84 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 21.24 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.8% down from the high of 45,770.20 on 09/05/2025.
     24.0% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     0.8% down from the high of 21,878.81 on 09/05/2025.
     46.8% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 6,532.65 on 09/05/2025.
     34.1% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  44,903  45,152  45,461  45,710  46,019 
Weekly  44,551  44,976  45,373  45,798  46,195 
Monthly  42,408  43,904  44,837  46,334  47,267 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  6,397  6,439  6,486  6,528  6,575 
Weekly  6,286  6,384  6,458  6,556  6,630 
Monthly  6,089  6,285  6,409  6,605  6,729 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  21,361  21,530  21,705  21,875  22,049 
Weekly  20,692  21,196  21,537  22,042  22,383 
Monthly  20,061  20,881  21,380  22,199  22,698 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 172 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMD, A, ALB, ALKS, AEE, AME, APH, ANIK, AMAT, ADSK, ADP, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BFH, CBT, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CX, COR, CNP, CDAY, CINF, CTAS, CLF, CNO, CNX, CMTL, CSGS, D, EXP, ECL, EME, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GIS, GNW, GILD, GFF, HIG, HD, DHI, HUN, ILMN, IPAR, TILE, IPI, KBH, K, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LEN, LLY, LOW, LPLA, MTSI, M, MANH, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MS, NTNX, NVDA, OMCL, OR, PKG, PAYX, PETS, PCG, PPL, PRU, PHM, QCOM, RL, RGS, RNG, RLI, ROK, ROP, RGLD, SAIA, SBH, SCHW, SEIC, SRE, SCI, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TEVA, TMO, TJX, VLO, VECO, V, WAT, WU, WLK, WPM, WWD, XEL, IAI, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, IAT, IEV, MXI, ILF, SOXX, IYF, ITB, IHI, EWZ, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, XLF, GLD, XHB, XAR, XLU, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Electronics1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor2. Metals and Mining (Div.)
3. Homebuilding3. Homebuilding
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Electronics
6. Telecom. Equipment6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Chemical (Specialty)
8. Internet8. Investment Co. (Foreign)
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Internet
10. Apparel10. Diversified Co.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Diversified)50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Insurance (Diversified)
52. Precision Instrument52. Air Transport
53. IT Services53. IT Services
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Biotechnology
55. Trucking/Transp. Leasing55. Medical Services
56. Biotechnology56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. Medical Services58. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Human Resources60. Human Resources

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 9/5/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AFL, APD, ALB, AA, ALGT, ALL, AEO, AEP, ANET, ASH, AZTA, BMI, BSET, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BMY, CDNS, CAL, CPB, COR, CHD, CINF, CLF, CMTL, CXW, CCRN, DSGR, ^DJU, D, DUK, EIX, FWRD, FDP, GAP, GNW, GFF, THG, HLIT, HOLX, HURC, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, IPG, JAZZ, L, LOW, MHO, MANH, MTRN, MUR, NBR, NFG, NTGR, NWL, PANW, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PCG, PEG, PSTG, RJF, RGS, ROL, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAND, SAIC, SHW, LUV, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TJX, TRV, UHAL, UNH, UNM, VLO, WRB, WMT, WEX, WPM, IEZ, IHE, IDU, IYH, IYZ, IYF, EWH, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, DBA, PXJ, PHO, XLV, XLU, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriangle, symmetrical      08/13/202508/29/2025Diversified Co.
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      08/08/202509/03/2025Medical Supplies
ADTNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/05/202508/20/2025Telecom. Equipment
AADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/01/202508/21/2025Aerospace/Defense
AEOFlag, high and tight      07/11/202509/04/2025Apparel
AEPDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/05/202508/20/2025Electric Utility (Central)
CIENHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/01/202509/02/2025Telecom. Equipment
EDHead-and-shoulders complex top      07/22/202508/20/2025Electric Utility (East)
COSTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/26/202509/03/2025Retail Store
CCRNPipe top      08/18/202508/25/2025Human Resources
CWRoof      07/01/202509/04/2025Machinery
DOVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/13/202508/22/2025Machinery
DTETriple top      08/05/202508/20/2025Electric Utility (Central)
HLITUgly double bottom      07/29/202508/21/2025Telecom. Equipment
HQYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/14/202508/28/2025Healthcare Information
IEXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/13/202508/22/2025Machinery
IRMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/13/202508/22/2025Industrial Services
KLACDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/18/202508/14/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXUDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      07/30/202508/08/2025Building Materials
MLMTriangle, ascending      08/07/202509/04/2025Cement and Aggregates
NTGRPipe bottom      07/28/202508/04/2025Telecom. Equipment
OMCV Bottom Extension      07/24/202508/22/2025Advertising
ONTriple top      08/13/202508/28/2025Semiconductor
PCGDiamond top      08/05/202509/04/2025Electric Utility (West)
ROLHead-and-shoulders top      08/05/202508/20/2025Industrial Services
SAICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/14/202508/22/2025IT Services
SRETriangle, ascending      08/05/202509/04/2025Electric Utility (West)
SLGNTriple top      08/13/202508/28/2025Packaging and Container
SCCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/21/202509/02/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
TSCODouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/19/202508/27/2025Retail Building Supply
VEEVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/29/202508/27/2025Healthcare Information
WEXTriangle, symmetrical      07/24/202508/29/2025Information Services
ZBRATriangle, descending      08/05/202509/04/2025Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 9/4/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.0% or 218.1 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 271 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 172 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 99 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 298/538 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 87/180 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a 4-day picture of the Nasdaq composite intraday.

The Adam & Eve double bottom is clear in the middle of the chart. The one-price bar spike is the Adam bottom and the wider Eve bottom is more rounded looking. It led to a nice rise in the index.

The double bottom is part of a larger pattern called an island bottom.

I drew a green trendline resting on two peaks. At A, the index has pierced the trendline moving up. However, the pierce isn't tall enough to signal a true upward breakout. We'll see what happens in the markets tomorrow.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, AEP, AME, AMAT, ASH, AIZ, AVY, AZTA, BALL, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BRKR, CALM, CPB, CE, CLS, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CNO, CL, CMTL, CSGP, CR, CCRN, DSGR, ^DJI, D, DOV, EIX, EVRG, EXPI, FICO, FAST, FMC, FCX, GME, GAP, GIS, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HOLX, HURC, IEX, IDXX, ITW, NSP, IBKR, KALU, KBH, K, KELYA, KLAC, RAMP, L, M, MANH, MTRX, MRCY, MLKN, NWL, ON, OMI, PNW, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RGS, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAND, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, TGT, TECH, TEVA, TKR, UPS, VLO, VECO, VMC, WEX, WSC, ZBRA, ITA, IDU, BOTZ, SLV, IHI, EWW, EWL, THD, PPA, PHO, GLD, XLI, XAR, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  20,043.64    
 Monthly S1  20,770.68  727.05   
 Weekly S2  21,189.74  419.05   
 Monthly Pivot  21,287.22  97.48   
 Daily S2  21,291.23  4.01   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  21,343.73  52.50   
 Low  21,370.98  27.25   
 Daily S1  21,394.48  23.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  21,440.89  46.41   
 Open  21,461.60  20.71   
 50% Down from Intraday High  21,462.48  0.88   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  21,474.23  11.75   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,484.07  9.84   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  21,497.73  13.66   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  21,543.10  45.37   
 High  21,553.98  10.88   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  21,577.48  23.50   
 Daily R2  21,657.23  79.75   
 Weekly R1  21,697.09  39.86   
 Weekly R2  21,896.46  199.36   
 Monthly R1  22,014.26  117.81   
 Monthly R2  22,530.80  516.53   

Wednesday 9/3/25. 2025 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 153 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ALL, AEO, AEP, AR, AMAT, ACGL, AIZ, ADSK, AVY, BALL, BKH, BA, BSX, BRC, CALM, CPB, CNP, CF, CNX, CGNX, GLW, CR, CRH, CCK, CTS, DDS, DSGR, D, DOV, EQT, EVRG, FDX, FRD, GME, GAP, GGG, HBI, HD, HON, ILMN, IRM, K, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LAMR, LXU, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MLKN, MCO, NFLX, NWPX, OMCL, OXM, PPG, PGR, PEG, RL, RRC, RTX, ROK, ROST, SCHW, SEIC, SRE, SHW, SO, SCCO, SPSC, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TER, TEVA, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TDG, UPS, VRTX, WOLF, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IDU, IYH, IEV, SOXX, SLV, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, XLY, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLU, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 9/2/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -92.02 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1275 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 638 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 637 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 316/578 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 61/125 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Surmodics: SRDX, support and resistance stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, AMD, A, AKAM, AA, AFG, AMN, APOG, AMAT, AIZ, ADSK, AZTA, BAX, BKH, BKNG, BRC, CAL, CE, CHD, CTS, DVN, BOOM, EMN, EME, EFX, EVRG, FFIV, FWRD, FDP, GNW, GMS, GGG, HLIT, HE, HD, HOV, HURC, IDXX, PODD, TILE, JBLU, JNJ, KLAC, LPLA, MGY, MTRX, MRCY, MGEE, MLKN, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NTGR, NWPX, OMCL, OXM, PKE, PCTY, PGR, PEG, QCOM, RTX, SAND, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SKYW, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, TDOC, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TSCO, TG, TREX, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IXN, IYF, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWU, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, XLE, XLF, XLB, XAR, XLU, UNG, USO, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Orb Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  42,463.97    
 Monthly S1  44,004.43  1,540.45   
 Monthly Pivot  44,881.13  876.71   
 Weekly S2  44,982.79  101.66   
 Weekly S1  45,263.84  281.04   
 Daily S2  45,273.80  9.96   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  45,377.21  103.41   
 Daily S1  45,409.34  32.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  45,468.49  59.15   
 Weekly Pivot  45,473.33  4.84   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  45,496.68  23.35   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  45,512.75  16.07   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  45,524.88  12.13   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  45,544.88  20.00   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  45,591.00  46.12   
 High  45,616.16  25.16   
 Daily R1  45,648.29  32.13   
 Daily R2  45,751.70  103.41   
 Weekly R1  45,754.38  2.68   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  45,963.88  209.50   
 Monthly R1  46,421.59  457.71   
 Monthly R2  47,298.29  876.71   

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