As of 12/04/2025
Indus: 47,851 -31.96 -0.1%
Trans: 17,066 +35.21 +0.2%
Utils: 1,088 -2.01 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 23,505 +51.05 +0.2%
S&P 500: 6,857 +7.40 +0.1%
|
YTD
+12.5%
+7.4%
+10.7%
+21.7%
+16.6%
|
 46,500 or 49,000 by 12/15/2025 17,400 or 15,800 by 12/15/20251,080 or 1,150 by 12/15/202524,000 or 22,300 by 12/15/20257,000 or 6,600 by 12/15/2025 |
As of 12/04/2025
Indus: 47,851 -31.96 -0.1%
Trans: 17,066 +35.21 +0.2%
Utils: 1,088 -2.01 -0.2%
Nasdaq: 23,505 +51.05 +0.2%
S&P 500: 6,857 +7.40 +0.1%
|
YTD
+12.5%
+7.4%
+10.7%
+21.7%
+16.6%
| |
|
46,500 or 49,000 by 12/15/202517,400 or 15,800 by 12/15/20251,080 or 1,150 by 12/15/202524,000 or 22,300 by 12/15/20257,000 or 6,600 by 12/15/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on November 28, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI is bullish, wildly so, with a reading of 95.6. As I mentioned in my blog, the CPI can't rise much higher (to 100), so expect a drop. Indeed, I'm expecting a retrace in some, but not all, of the indices.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
The Dow industrials outperformed the forecast since August. The forecast expects a gain at year end of 4%. It's up triple that so far, but there's still a month to go.
Here's the Nasdaq forecast.
The Nasdaq is up 21%, the best of the indices I follow. The forecast gain for year end is up 9%.
This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
The forecast is for a closing gain of 6%, compared to a year-to-date gain of 16%. Notice that December is predicted to be flat to down. If you page back to the prior charts, you'll see the same prediction, a slight move lower to year end.
This is the 10-year forecast.
This chart is on the monthly scale. The S&P 500 is forecast to gain 160%. Circled in green are areas of weakness.
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