Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20
As of 10/23/2020
  Indus: 28,336 -28.09 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,880 +131.58 +1.1%  
  Utils: 894 +2.40 +0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 11,548 +42.27 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 3,465 +11.90 +0.3%  
YTD
-0.7%  
 +9.0%  
 +1.7%  
 +28.7%  
 +7.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20

 

October 2020 Headlines

Archives


Monday 10/26/20. Market Monday: Flag in S&P

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P index on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, a double bottom appears which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms.

I show the confirmation line C. After that, the index made a tasty gain.

More recently, the index has made a flag pattern. The flagpole is a loose looking thing, starting from the September low. Usually I like to see a straight-line run up as a pole and not a lot of congestion along the way. The uptrend in this case doesn't really have that.

What happens next?

The truth is, no one knows. But a good guess is the flag will breakout upward. They usually do when the trend is upward and the flag slopes downward.

Sprinkled into the mix is overhead resistance setup by the prior peak in early September. It successfully halted the upward move. If the flag breaks out upward, then the up-move may be short lived.

It's also interesting to note that the bearish signal in the chart pattern indicator (not shown in this chart) has disappeared. It can do that for up to 7 days. So it supports the bullish upward breakout.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a butterfly from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 410.89 points.
Tuesday: Up 113.37 points.
Wednesday: Down 97.97 points.
Thursday: Up 152.84 points.
Friday: Down 28.09 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 270.74 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 123.28 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 18.42 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.2% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     55.6% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     4.4% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     74.1% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     3.4% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     58.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,021  28,178  28,307  28,465  28,594 
Weekly  27,691  28,013  28,363  28,685  29,034 
Monthly  25,522  26,929  27,944  29,351  30,366 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,431  3,448  3,457  3,474  3,483 
Weekly  3,374  3,420  3,461  3,507  3,548 
Monthly  3,068  3,267  3,408  3,607  3,749 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,397  11,472  11,511  11,586  11,625 
Weekly  11,156  11,352  11,565  11,761  11,974 
Monthly  9,898  10,723  11,344  12,169  12,790 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ALRM, ADS, AEO, AXP, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ADM, AWI, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BBW, CACI, CAL, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CLR, CCRN, CTS, DRQ, DTE, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EOG, RE, FOE, FEYE, FLS, FRD, GPS, GD, GNW, GILD, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, KELYA, KMT, KMB, LH, LAMR, LLY, MRTN, MLM, MA, MGEE, NJR, NEU, NUS, OGE, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PFE, PPL, PINC, PFG, PRU, PEG, PHM, RL, RMBS, RES, SO, SWN, SR, SSYS, TFX, TDC, TEVA, WERN, WLK, FXI, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWH, EWW, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PHO, ILF, XLF, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Air Transport2. Air Transport
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail Building Supply
5. Retail Building Supply5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Semiconductor6. Furn/Home Furnishings
7. Apparel7. Semiconductor
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Chemical (Diversified)
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Human Resources
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Chemical (Basic)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. Biotechnology51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
52. Chemical (Specialty)52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Petroleum (Integrated)
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Petroleum (Producing)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Petroleum (Producing)
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Natural Gas (Distributor)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 10/23/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AJRD, DOX, AEO, AEP, AEL, APH, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, ATO, AVA, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BRC, CAL, CLS, CRL, CINF, CSCO, CTSH, CLR, CR, CRH, DVN, DFS, DUK, EIX, EIGI, EZPW, FAST, FFG, FDX, FLIR, FCX, GPS, GIS, GGG, GES, HAYN, HTLD, HOV, JBHT, HURC, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IBP, NVTA, JCOM, JAZZ, JNJ, KALU, KBAL, KMB, LAMR, LLY, L, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MRK, ^IXIC, NFG, NFLX, NOC, NWPX, OGE, OXM, PDCO, PCG, DGX, RMBS, RJF, SCHW, SAIC, SEIC, SHW, SLGN, SNPS, TECH, TSCO, TZOO, SLCA, VEEV, WMB, ITA, IYM, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IHE, FTEC, IYH, IAT, EWK, EWH, EIS, IBB, PPA, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IXN, XLE, XHB, XLB, XAR, XLK, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTHead-and-shoulders top      10/01/202010/19/2020Medical Supplies
ANFPipe top      10/05/202010/12/2020Apparel
AFLRectangle bottom      07/15/202010/22/2020Insurance (Diversified)
ALRMPennant      10/14/202010/21/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AEOHead-and-shoulders top      09/16/202010/16/2020Apparel
APATriangle, symmetrical      10/02/202010/22/2020Petroleum (Producing)
BERYTriangle, symmetrical      09/15/202010/22/2020Packaging and Container
HTLDPipe top      10/05/202010/12/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTPipe top      10/05/202010/12/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IBPPipe top      10/05/202010/12/2020Retail Building Supply
LLYPipe top      10/05/202010/12/2020Drug
PNWCup with handle      08/11/202010/21/2020Electric Utility (West)
WERNBroadening bottom      09/21/202010/21/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WLKPennant      10/14/202010/22/2020Chemical (Basic)

 

Top


Thursday 10/22/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -31.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 521 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 284 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 237 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 198/355 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern indicator (CPI, not shown) is still bearish. I'm just saying...

This chart shows a triple top at peaks 1, 2, 3. I'm counting the major tops here, even though peak 3 has two peaks similar in price to the spike between 2 and 3, on the down-slope from 2.

More recent, LHR is a head (H)-and-shoulders (L, R) top. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the blue line. H and R are almost at the same height so you could call this a double top, too.

In red is a broadening formation, right-angled and ascending. They breakout upward 55% of the time, which is about random.

The text at the start of this post says price will close higher 54.5% of the time, so I guess that's the way I'll bet.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 115 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, AJRD, AES, ATSG, DOX, AXP, APH, ANTM, ARCB, ACGL, BZH, BIG, BAH, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CLNE, CL, CMCO, CR, CREE, CROX, XRAY, DVN, DTE, DUK, EIGI, FAST, FDX, FE, FRD, GNW, GGG, HLIT, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HOLX, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, NVTA, JNJ, KBAL, KMB, LRCX, LLY, LXU, MCHX, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MYL, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NXGN, JWN, OXY, ORI, PATK, PYPL, PETS, PCG, RLI, SAIC, SEIC, SHW, SCS, TDC, TOL, TZOO, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VEEV, VC, WMT, WERN, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, ITB, IEO, FXI, BOTZ, EWK, EWG, EWJ, EZA, DBA, PHO, XLE, GLD, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,877.19    
 Monthly S1  10,680.94  803.75   
 Weekly S2  11,263.34  582.40   
 Monthly Pivot  11,323.24  59.90   
 Weekly S1  11,374.01  50.77   
 Daily S2  11,387.14  13.13   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  11,435.92  48.77   
 Low  11,476.08  40.16   
 Close  11,484.69  8.61   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,524.85  40.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,528.69  3.83   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  11,530.39  1.70   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,544.93  14.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,561.18  16.25   
 Daily R1  11,573.63  12.44   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  11,613.79  40.16   
 Daily R2  11,662.56  48.77   
 Weekly Pivot  11,669.78  7.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  11,780.45  110.68   
 Weekly R2  12,076.22  295.76   
 Monthly R1  12,126.99  50.77   
 Monthly R2  12,769.29  642.30   

Wednesday 10/21/20. Indicators Bearish: Uh-Oh!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the red vertical bar on the far right of the chart. We haven't seen one of those in a while, so you may want to avert your eyes.

It's a bearish signal. It's only two days old, so there's a good chance it will disappear. That can happen for up to a week with this indicator. Still, it's a warning.

As a reference, look back to mid August. A bearish signal appeared but the index continued higher. Other turns, like the one in February, were more dramatic.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 42%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines this week are more bearish than the snapshot taken a week ago. That's not good news either. The change wasn't much compared to what we've seen in the past, but we have both charts giving off bearish signals.

What does it mean? The sky is falling, of course (meteor shower tonight - Tuesday).

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the index has hit overhead resistance and is now retracing, something I suspected would happen a week ago and blogged about. The index will likely continue down.

You have to wonder, now that the country is about to embark on the second wave or third surge, that things are going to get bad. Very bad. And that's going to panic the market.

So hold onto your cash because you'll have a buying opportunity coming, probably before the end of the year. But maybe it's time to sell some losers now, take a tax deductions, and build up that cash for the coming drop.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, DOX, AEL, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ATO, AXS, BIO, BAH, BRC, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CHS, CINF, CMCO, CAG, CLR, CREE, CRH, CCK, CSGS, DECK, DFS, EXP, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EIGI, RE, FAST, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HOLX, JBHT, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JNJ, KMB, LH, LDOS, LLY, MLM, MYL, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PRFT, PINC, RGS, SAIC, NOW, SHW, SUM, TDOC, TDC, TSCO, TZOO, TG, SLCA, VRTX, WSO, ITA, IEO, IHE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWI, EWP, EWL, EWU, PPA, PBE, IEV, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 10/20/20. Slider Trading Quiz: Family Dollar!

The index dropped by -1.4% or -410.89 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 199 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 83 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 116 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/373 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Family Dollar (FDO) (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 203 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADBE, AJRD, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AXP, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, AVY, AXS, BLL, BSET, BMRN, BAH, BRC, BBW, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CNC, CRL, CHS, CHD, CNA, CL, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, GLW, COST, COTY, CREE, CRH, CSGS, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, D, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FOE, FRD, GD, GE, GPN, GOOGL, THG, HQY, JBHT, IEX, ILMN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JKHY, JAZZ, JNJ, KMB, KLAC, LOW, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MRK, MS, MLI, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEU, JWN, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PINC, DGX, RJF, RGS, RLI, ROG, SCHW, SAIC, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, STMP, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TRV, TG, SLCA, UGI, V, WSO, WERN, WLK, ITA, IAI, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXN, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XLK, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,475.22    
 Monthly S1  26,835.32  1,360.10   
 Weekly S2  27,667.93  832.61   
 Daily S2  27,776.39  108.46   
 Monthly Pivot  27,897.11  120.72   
 Weekly S1  27,931.67  34.56   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  27,985.90  54.23   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  28,139.40  153.50   
 Close  28,195.42  56.02   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  28,348.92  153.50   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,358.11  9.19   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,425.66  67.56   
 Weekly Pivot  28,445.29  19.62   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,493.22  47.94   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  28,558.43  65.21   
 Open  28,633.55  75.12   
 Weekly R1  28,709.03  75.48   
 High  28,711.93  2.90   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  28,921.45  209.52   
 Weekly R2  29,222.65  301.20   
 Monthly R1  29,257.21  34.56   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  30,319.00  1,061.79   

Monday 10/19/20. Market Monday: Nasdaq Cup w/Handle?

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I'm not a big fan of patterns with rounded turns. They are hard to recognize using automated means and often don't work well anyway.

The cup with handle pattern is an exception on the performance front. A recent review of chart patterns shows its performance in bull markets ranks third out of 39 patterns, where a rank of 1 is best.

So it's at the top of the list.

Could this chart be a picture of one?

It has the ingredients of a cup. Price rises into the cup (the blue channel). A concave rounded turn follows (red line). A handle on the right follows the cup.

So far, the handle hasn't dropped far, which is a good thing. Short handles are good, too.

The cup isn't a smooth as I like to see, but few patterns are perfect.

The pattern will confirm if or when price closes above the right rim. If the handle drops below midway down the cup, then that's bad news. If the handle lasts more than 22 days, that's also bad news. We'll have to see how this pattern continues to unfold in the coming days.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 250.62 points.
Tuesday: Down 157.71 points.
Wednesday: Down 165.81 points.
Thursday: Down 19.8 points.
Friday: Up 112.11 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 19.41 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 91.62 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 6.68 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     57.1% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     3.3% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     76.0% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     2.9% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     58.9% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,401  28,504  28,673  28,776  28,945 
Weekly  27,805  28,206  28,582  28,983  29,360 
Monthly  25,612  27,109  28,034  29,531  30,456 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,458  3,471  3,493  3,506  3,529 
Weekly  3,383  3,433  3,492  3,542  3,600 
Monthly  3,074  3,279  3,414  3,619  3,755 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,537  11,604  11,716  11,783  11,895 
Weekly  11,326  11,499  11,732  11,905  12,139 
Monthly  9,939  10,806  11,386  12,252  12,832 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AES, ALKS, ADS, AMZN, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, APH, AVY, AXS, BMI, BLL, BSET, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CF, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CNO, CMCO, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CCK, CTS, DHR, DDS, EMR, EQT, EXPD, FISV, FLEX, FCX, GE, GL, GES, IEX, ITW, INCY, INTU, ISRG, KELYA, KBAL, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LOW, MCHX, MDCA, MLHR, NWL, JWN, NUS, OMCL, PKG, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, DGX, ROG, SKX, STMP, TMO, TJX, TOL, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, WAT, WLK, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IHI, IEO, IAT, IGV, EWH, PPA, PHO, ILF, XLI, XLB, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Air Transport2. Air Transport
3. Shoe3. Retail Building Supply
4. Retail Building Supply4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Shoe
6. Furn/Home Furnishings6. Semiconductor
7. Semiconductor7. E-Commerce
8. Chemical (Diversified)8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Human Resources9. Internet
10. Chemical (Basic)10. Healthcare Information
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Chemical (Specialty)
51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Aerospace/Defense52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Petroleum (Integrated)54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Petroleum (Integrated)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Natural Gas (Distributor)58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 10/16/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AKAM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, APH, AON, APOG, ARCB, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, COG, CALM, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CVX, CNA, CLR, GLW, COST, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CMI, DFS, EIX, EIGI, EQT, EXC, FDS, FOE, FTNT, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GPRO, GFF, THG, HSC, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IVC, KBH, KBAL, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LNC, L, LOW, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MDCA, MRK, MSFT, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, NTAP, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PTEN, PLXS, POR, PPL, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RGS, REV, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SEE, SRE, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SCS, TKR, TOL, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, VRTX, WERN, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, ITB, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IGV, IYF, EWK, EWC, EWH, EPP, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PHO, XLV, XHB, XRT, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag      10/09/202010/15/2020Electronics
ANIKBroadening top      07/15/202010/12/2020Biotechnology
ARWPennant      10/08/202010/14/2020Electronics
CBTFlag      10/09/202010/15/2020Chemical (Diversified)
COGPipe bottom      09/28/202010/05/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
CTSPennant      10/08/202010/15/2020Electronics
DRQTriangle, symmetrical      09/30/202010/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
GPROFlag, high and tight      09/11/202010/15/2020Electronics
LLYBroadening bottom      08/21/202010/09/2020Drug
MTRXTriangle, symmetrical      08/31/202010/15/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OMCLHorn bottom      09/21/202010/05/2020Healthcare Information
OTEXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/01/202010/12/2020E-Commerce
SHWTriangle, symmetrical      09/04/202010/14/2020Chemical (Basic)
VRTXDead-cat bounce      10/15/202010/15/2020Biotechnology

 

Top


Thursday 10/15/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.8% or -95.17 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 258 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 129 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 129 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 198/354 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A triple top appears on the chart as the three peaks 1-2-3. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the blue line. I use a close instead of the low price to avoid premature breakouts. In this example, the index broke out downward at A.

Following that, a flag appeared. I show that at B. The flagpole (the drop from C to the start of B) isn't really long enough to support the pattern. In other words, it doesn't look proportional. The flag is too long for the flagpole.

If you look from point 3 to the start of B, there's a measured move down chart pattern where the flag has returned to the corrective phase of the MMD. That's how MMDs often behave.

After that, the security usually resumes its downward trend, so that's what I'm looking for on Thursday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AMGN, ASH, AXS, BBBY, BMRN, COG, CAL, CLS, CVX, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, GLW, COST, CRH, DDS, EIGI, EQT, XOM, FAST, FISV, IT, GES, HLIT, HSIC, HOV, ILMN, NSP, IBP, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, JNJ, LZB, LLY, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MSFT, MLHR, NBR, NFG, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, OUT, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, QCOM, REV, CRM, SMG, SEIC, SHW, SXI, TGT, TKR, TREX, SLCA, VMI, V, WMT, WLK, ZBRA, IYC, IHE, FDN, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWK, EWW, EWP, EWL, TUR, EWU, IBB, XLY, XHB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,228.08    
 Monthly S1  10,998.40  770.33   
 Weekly S2  11,034.69  36.29   
 Monthly Pivot  11,289.82  255.13   
 Weekly S1  11,401.71  111.89   
 Weekly Pivot  11,491.47  89.76   
 Daily S2  11,582.10  90.63   
 Daily S1  11,675.41  93.32   
 Low  11,714.35  38.94   
 Close  11,768.73  54.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,800.52  31.79   
 Daily Pivot  11,807.67  7.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,827.13  19.47   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,853.75  26.62   
 Weekly R1  11,858.49  4.74   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  11,889.07  30.58   
 Daily R1  11,900.98  11.91   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  11,939.92  38.94   
 Weekly R2  11,948.25  8.33   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  12,033.24  84.99   
 Monthly R1  12,060.14  26.91   
 Monthly R2  12,351.56  291.41   

Wednesday 10/14/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Last week I warned about weakness in the indices coming. The index has climbed since then. Oops. Smile

You can see that the index has peaked at the price level of the August high (at least I think it's August. Could be early September). Anyway, that's a sign of overhead resistance.

Today (Tuesday) was a down day for the indices. The CPI dipped on the news. Will it continue? I can't tell. The batteries in my crystal ball need changing.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 42% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines (red and blue) dipped today. The dip is hard to see but it's visible on the chart. That is in contrast to a rising trend from a week ago.

The two lines show weakness, but I said that last week, too. So this might be a one-day hiccup or it might lead to a more serious downturn.

My guess: It's the start of a downtrend. That's not because of what I see on the charts, using the indicators. Rather, it's based on overhead resistance. My target would be 360 on the prior chart, right scale (which is for the CPI but it gives you the level). There's a knot sitting there, ready to catch price if it falls. So I'm thinking the index hit that knot and pull back.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, ALKS, ADS, AYX, DOX, AMGN, APA, AAPL, BECN, BERY, BIG, COG, CALM, CENX, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTSH, CMCO, CLGX, CMI, DDS, DRQ, EMN, EOG, EQT, XOM, FISV, FORM, GPRO, HLIT, HOLX, HD, IBKR, IPI, IVC, KLIC, LDOS, MANH, MCHX, MU, MSFT, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NKE, OGE, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, PTEN, SMG, SIGI, SHW, SNPS, TKR, TSCO, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VMC, WSO, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEO, IHF, SOXX, EWW, EWP, IBB, XLE, XRT, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 10/13/20. Bullish Carl V Pattern Released

The index climbed by 0.9% or 250.62 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 516 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 301 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 215 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/372 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Carl V chart pattern

I released a chart pattern new to the website, called the bullish Carl V, named after it's founder, Carl Vanhaesendonck

Mr. Vanhaesendonck lives in Belgium and spent the last two decades trading currencies, futures, and stocks (via CFD, part-time) as day-trader or occasional swing trader, while maintaining a career as global business development executive in the medical IT field. Now that he's retired, he's trading almost full time.

He wrote in an email, "I discovered that pattern probably 4-5 years ago, almost noting distractedly the [repetitive] outcome, first thinking 'that was just my imagination.' " He started trading the pattern in earnest this year and shared his discovery with me. I researched the pattern and below are the main results

Bullish Carl V: Bull Market Results

Overall performance rank (1 is best): not ranked*
Break even failure rate: 18%*
Average rise: 41%*
Throwback rate: 67%*
Percentage meeting price target: 62% (pattern height added to the low at D)

* These numbers use my traditional gauge of the rise from the breakout price (the top of the chart pattern) to ultimate high. Using that approach, the pattern would place 23rd out of 40 for performance where 1 is best. However, that's not how Vanhaesendonck trades the chart pattern. He takes a position just after bottom D forms and rides price higher, often exiting at a target price, not the ultimate high. Using his approach, price reaches the target 62% of the time in the stock market (he trades currencies).

The Carl V looks like a Fibonacci-based pattern, but it's not. There's no calculating involved, so it's easy to find.

To read the full article, click here.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 214 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AES, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ADS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEP, AFG, AIG, APH, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, CLGX, GLW, COST, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DDS, D, DOV, EMN, EMR, EOG, EZPW, FB, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FLS, FTNT, FDP, GD, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, THG, HLIT, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, LNC, L, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MDCA, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PANW, PYPL, PNW, POR, PPG, PINC, KWR, RGA, ROK, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SR, SRDX, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, TG, SLCA, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WLK, WEX, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHI, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, QLD, DBA, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLF, XLI, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,877.66    
 Monthly S1  27,357.59  1,479.93   
 Weekly S2  27,465.69  108.10   
 Monthly Pivot  28,016.94  551.25   
 Weekly S1  28,151.60  134.66   
 Weekly Pivot  28,413.95  262.34   
 Daily S2  28,519.47  105.52   
 Low  28,659.67  140.20   
 Open  28,671.12  11.45   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  28,678.49  7.38   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  28,773.98  95.48   
 50% Down from Intraday High  28,809.29  35.31   
 Daily Pivot  28,818.70  9.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  28,837.52  18.82   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,844.59  7.07   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  28,958.90  114.31   
 Daily R1  28,977.72  18.82   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  29,099.86  122.14   
 Daily R2  29,117.93  18.06   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  29,362.21  244.28   
 Monthly R1  29,496.87  134.66   
 Monthly R2  30,156.22  659.35   

Monday 10/12/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's start with the left pattern. You can't see all of it. It looks like a broadening top and it might be. But it's also part of what's called a Carl V pattern. It's a new one I'm researching with Carl Vanhaesendonck. Hopefully, we'll release details of it soon. It predicts a rise after the last bottom touch in the pattern and that's what happens in this example.

To the right of that is a double bottom (DB). The pattern confirms as valid when the index closes above the green line.

Next comes a flag and it's a pretty one, too. Two parallel lines, nice and tight, sitting atop a flagpole.

Finally, we come to a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. LS is the left shoulder, H is the head, and RS is the right shoulder. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the blue line.

The tightening of the high-low range on price as it climbs the last few days suggests a slackening of momentum. I don't know if that's true or not, but it looks like it needs supplemental oxygen.

If you measure the height of the pattern from the low price at the head to the neckline directly above it and add it to the breakout price (where the index crosses the blue line going upward), you get a measure rule target.

It suggests, but does not guarantee, that price has more to climb, probably peaking above the old high. If the index does rise, it'll probably stall just shy of the September peak.

Keep in mind that the index could drop, too.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 465.83 points.
Tuesday: Down 375.88 points.
Wednesday: Up 530.7 points.
Thursday: Up 122.05 points.
Friday: Up 161.39 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 904.09 points or 3.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 504.92 points or 4.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 128.69 points or 3.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     57.0% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     4.1% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     74.6% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     58.6% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,332  28,460  28,568  28,695  28,804 
Weekly  27,382  27,985  28,330  28,933  29,279 
Monthly  25,794  27,191  27,933  29,330  30,073 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,448  3,463  3,473  3,487  3,497 
Weekly  3,310  3,394  3,438  3,521  3,566 
Monthly  3,117  3,297  3,390  3,570  3,663 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,441  11,511  11,546  11,615  11,651 
Weekly  10,972  11,276  11,429  11,733  11,885 
Monthly  10,165  10,873  11,227  11,934  12,289 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 4 days.

Here's a symbol list of 239 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AYI, AJRD, AFL, AA, ADS, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, ATO, AVY, BSET, BIO, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BG, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNP, CF, CVX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CL, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CREE, CRH, XRAY, DOV, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EZPW, FEYE, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GD, GE, GL, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HP, HOV, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IPG, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LLY, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NXGN, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PICO, PNW, PPG, PPL, PINC, PFG, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SMTC, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SUM, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TJX, TRV, TG, UNM, VEEV, VC, WLK, WEX, WMB, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, IYH, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Air Transport2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Retail Building Supply3. Shoe
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail Building Supply
5. Shoe5. Air Transport
6. Semiconductor6. Furn/Home Furnishings
7. E-Commerce7. Semiconductor
8. Computer Software and Svcs8. Apparel
9. Internet9. Chemical (Basic)
10. Healthcare Information10. Chemical (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Specialty)50. Aerospace/Defense
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Petroleum (Integrated)55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Petroleum (Integrated)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 10/9/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 228 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, APD, AA, ADS, AEO, AMN, APH, ARCB, ARW, ADP, AVY, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BIG, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CALM, CX, CNP, CVX, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, GLW, COTY, CRH, CTS, XRAY, ^DJU, DOV, DTE, EXP, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EPAM, EFX, RE, EZPW, FICO, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, GME, IT, GD, GPN, GOOGL, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HP, HON, HURC, IEX, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KMB, LZB, LEG, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, LOW, LXU, MLM, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MOS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, OXY, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PATK, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PPG, PPL, PFG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, RGA, RNG, RHI, ROK, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, NOW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, STMP, SUM, TDOC, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TKR, RIG, TRV, TG, UNM, VMI, VC, VMC, WLK, WEX, IYM, IAI, IYK, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLU, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 55 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 9.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is moving sideways (consolidating).

I found 35 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is mildly bullish. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 67 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (19) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Electronics
ADTNHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/09/202010/02/2020Telecom. Equipment
ALKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Air Transport
ADSPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Information Services
DOXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020IT Services
AAPLDiamond top      09/29/202010/07/2020Computers and Peripherals
ARCBPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BOOTPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Shoe
BRCPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CBTPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CACIFalling wedge      09/21/202010/08/2020IT Services
CEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Chemical (Basic)
CHKPHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/08/202010/02/2020E-Commerce
CSCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Computers and Peripherals
CMTLPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Telecom. Equipment
CRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Diversified Co.
CRHHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/04/202010/02/2020Cement and Aggregates
CCRNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/20/202010/06/2020Human Resources
DVNHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
^DJUBroadening bottom      08/21/202010/02/2020None
^DJIHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/10/202010/02/2020None
DOVPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Machinery
BOOMHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/14/202010/02/2020Metal Fabricating
EMNPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Diversified)
EIXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Electric Utility (West)
EMRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Computers and Peripherals
EZPWHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/21/202010/02/2020Financial Services
FOEHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Chemical (Specialty)
FEYERectangle bottom      09/10/202010/08/2020Computer Software and Svcs
FISVRising wedge      09/02/202010/08/2020IT Services
FLSPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Machinery
FRDTriangle, symmetrical      09/17/202010/08/2020Building Materials
GDPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Aerospace/Defense
GPNTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202010/08/2020Computer Software and Svcs
GLBroadening wedge, descending      09/01/202010/08/2020Insurance (Life)
GFFRising wedge      09/09/202010/02/2020Building Materials
HSCHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/14/202010/02/2020Diversified Co.
HTLDPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HSIIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/25/202010/02/2020Human Resources
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Medical Supplies
IEXTriple bottom      09/08/202010/02/2020Machinery
IDXXPennant      09/30/202010/07/2020Drug
INCYHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Drug
INFNPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Telecom. Equipment
IPARPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
IPGPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Advertising
NVTAFlag, high and tight      08/11/202010/08/2020Medical Services
JKHYRising wedge      09/17/202010/08/2020IT Services
JBLUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Air Transport
KELYADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Human Resources
KMTPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Metal Fabricating
KLICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LZBPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
LEGPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
LDOSRoof      09/14/202010/08/2020IT Services
LPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MHOTriangle, ascending      08/18/202010/08/2020Homebuilding
MANTriangle, symmetrical      06/05/202010/08/2020Human Resources
MTRNHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/10/202010/02/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Medical Supplies
MLIPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Metal Fabricating
NFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/24/202010/07/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
NJRPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWLPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Household Products
OMCPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Advertising
ASGNPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Human Resources
OXMPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Apparel
PDCOHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Medical Supplies
PETSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/25/202010/02/2020Medical Services
PLXSHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020Electronics
PPGPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Diversified)
KWRPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Specialty)
DGXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/25/202010/02/2020Medical Services
RGAPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Insurance (Life)
^GSPCHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020None
SAICHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/11/202010/02/2020IT Services
SHWTriangle, symmetrical      09/04/202010/08/2020Chemical (Basic)
SKXPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Shoe
SCCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/24/202010/02/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
TKRPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Metal Fabricating
TRVPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TGPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Specialty)
UNMPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Insurance (Diversified)
VMIHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/10/202010/02/2020Metal Fabricating
VRTXTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202010/08/2020Biotechnology
VCPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Electronics
WUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/24/202010/02/2020Financial Services
WLKPipe bottom      09/21/202009/28/2020Chemical (Basic)
WEXTriple bottom      09/21/202010/02/2020Information Services
XARHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/10/202010/02/2020Aerospace/Defense

 

Top


Thursday 10/8/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.9% or 210 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 66 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 36 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 30 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 197/353 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Sometimes there's not a lot to comment on so I have to search. In this case, I focused on the two parallel red lines in the upper right of the chart.

They form an up-sloping channel. Nothing unusual about that. Will it continue?

I drew more lines, red ones. Notice anything unusual? They all have a similar slope. The slope is one of the three bear's thing: not to steep and not to shallow. The slope is just right.

If you combine overhead resistance with a reluctance of the index to continue the trend two days in a row (half the time, anyway), it suggests weakness. However, that's thin evidence.

The above probabilities say the odds favor an upward close. I leave the direction guess in your hands, but the index looks tired to me.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, AKAM, AA, ADS, AEE, APH, ARCB, AVY, BSET, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, GLW, CCK, CSGS, XRAY, ^DJU, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EMR, RE, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FEYE, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, GME, GD, GPRO, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HP, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LLY, LNC, RAMP, L, LXU, MLM, MRK, MOS, MLI, NJR, NWL, NXGN, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PICO, PPG, KWR, RGA, ROK, ROST, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, TFX, TXT, TKR, TRV, TG, UNM, VC, VMC, WAT, WLK, WEX, IYH, IHF, IAT, EWA, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, DBA, GLD, XLI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,764.81    
 Monthly S1  10,564.71  799.89   
 Weekly S2  10,917.63  352.93   
 Weekly S1  11,141.12  223.48   
 Daily S2  11,212.29  71.18   
 Weekly Pivot  11,242.62  30.33   
 Low  11,258.35  15.73   
 Open  11,271.68  13.33   
 Daily S1  11,288.45  16.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,305.03  16.59   
 Monthly Pivot  11,319.38  14.35   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,319.46  0.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,333.88  14.42   
 Daily Pivot  11,334.50  0.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,364.60  30.10   
 High  11,380.56  15.96   
 Daily R1  11,410.66  30.10   
 Daily R2  11,456.71  46.06   
 Weekly R1  11,466.11  9.39   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  11,567.61  101.51   
 Monthly R1  12,119.28  551.66   
 Monthly R2  12,873.95  754.68   

Wednesday 10/7/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has turned green more than 7 days ago, so it's a firm, valid signal. I write that because signals can change for up to a week.

Notice that thin blue line at the bottom of the chart. That's the indicator and it has turned down today. No surprise there because the market dropped. However, it's a warning of weakness.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 52%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red and blue lines have been trending higher over the last week, following the index upward.

Looking at the two lines today, it's difficult to see but they seemed to move horizontal to down. If that's true, then it's a sign of weakness.

The two charts appear bullish on the surface, but digging in and they are signaling caution. We might see the indices continue their slide.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 264 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, AXDX, AMD, APD, ALK, AA, ALKS, ADS, AYX, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AVY, BSET, BECN, BZH, BKH, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BMY, CBT, CE, CX, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CSGS, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EFX, RE, EXPD, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FCX, GME, GD, GE, GILD, GL, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HOLX, HD, HON, DHI, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KSS, LZB, LANC, LEG, LLY, LNC, LMT, L, LXU, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, NOV, NJR, NWL, NXGN, JWN, NVDA, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PRFT, PFE, PICO, POR, PPG, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, RL, RJF, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROST, RES, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, STMP, SXI, TXT, TKR, TOL, TRV, TG, UNM, VRTX, V, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WERN, WLK, WEX, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IEO, IHE, IDU, DDM, FXI, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PJP, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 10/6/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Expeditor International

The index climbed by 1.7% or 465.83 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 146 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 80 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 66 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/371 or 58.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/80 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Expeditor International (EXPD) (actual trade) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AYI, AES, AFL, ALRM, ALK, AA, AMZN, AFG, AMWD, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AGO, ATO, AVY, AXS, BLL, BIO, BG, CALM, CAL, CE, CX, CIEN, CLF, CNA, CTSH, CMTL, ED, CONN, CLR, CLGX, COTY, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DFS, DOV, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, RE, EVH, FAST, FE, FLEX, FCX, GPS, GD, GE, GILD, EVRG, HIG, HELE, HNI, HOLX, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, IPG, IPI, INTU, IVC, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LAMR, LEG, LNC, MHO, MAN, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MLI, CNR, NTGR, NEU, JWN, ORI, OLN, OMC, PATK, PYPL, PDLI, PICO, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PGR, PEG, PHM, RJF, RGA, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SCHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SUM, AMTD, TPX, TKR, TJX, TRV, UNM, VMC, WWW, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, DDM, ICF, IHF, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,299.33    
 Monthly S1  26,723.98  1,424.66   
 Weekly S2  27,139.36  415.38   
 Weekly S1  27,644.00  504.64   
 Daily S2  27,708.35  64.35   
 Low  27,825.42  117.07   
 Open  27,825.42  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  27,842.73  17.31   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  27,928.49  85.76   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  27,954.24  25.74   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  27,961.67  7.43   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  27,994.03  32.36   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  28,033.82  39.79   
 Daily Pivot  28,045.57  11.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  28,148.64  103.07   
 High  28,162.64  14.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  28,265.71  103.07   
 Weekly R1  28,347.37  81.66   
 Daily R2  28,382.79  35.42   
 Weekly R2  28,546.10  163.31   
 Monthly R1  29,386.32  840.22   
 Monthly R2  30,624.01  1,237.68   

Monday 10/5/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is the Dow transports on the daily scale. I show a few chart patterns on the figure. Let's go through them, starting from the left.

In April, the index shows a head-and-shoulders top. That appears on the chart as L-H-R for left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the blue neckline. Unfortunately, the index didn't drop far enough to meet the measure rule target.

The measure rule for most chart patterns measures the height of the pattern and in the case of a top, subtracts that height from the bottom of the pattern (the neckline directly below the head's peak, for this pattern). The result is a target which we can use to measure how often price reaches it.

To the right of the pattern is a double bottom, cleverly labeled DB. It confirmed and led to a big gain. Confirmation in this example is when price closes above the peak between the two valleys. Here the measure rule is the height of the pattern added to the confirmation price.

Next comes a pennant. Those patterns can be handy when they appear in the middle of the run. However, they tend to appear most often beyond the middle, as in this case.

Under LS is a diamond top. This is a small one, but it's handsome.

Finally, mostly recently, is another head-and-shoulders top. In this case, though, it has not been confirmed yet, so it's just squiggles on the price chart.

Based on what I see with the chart pattern indicator, it looks like the head-and-shoulders top will be a dud and we see the index rise to a new high. That could change with world and U.S. events, of course. It's election season. Imagine if Biden gets Covid-19 and both Trump and Biden die. Hmm. That would make for an interesting election. Likely both man's names would appear on the ballot anyway.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 410.1 points.
Tuesday: Down 131.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 329.04 points.
Thursday: Up 35.2 points.
Friday: Down 134.09 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 508.85 points or 1.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 161.46 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 49.98 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.4% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     52.0% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     8.3% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     67.0% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     6.7% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     52.8% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,164  27,423  27,642  27,902  28,121 
Weekly  26,984  27,333  27,687  28,037  28,391 
Monthly  25,144  26,413  27,806  29,076  30,469 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,302  3,325  3,347  3,370  3,392 
Weekly  3,283  3,316  3,356  3,389  3,430 
Monthly  3,003  3,176  3,382  3,555  3,761 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,907  10,991  11,118  11,202  11,329 
Weekly  10,821  10,948  11,146  11,273  11,471 
Monthly  9,668  10,372  11,223  11,926  12,777 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 11 days.

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, ADTN, ALRM, ALKS, AMZN, AEO, AAPL, ARW, AGO, ATO, AVY, BSET, BMY, CBT, CLS, CNP, CENX, CF, CHD, CINF, CLX, CNA, CL, CMTL, CONN, GLW, COTY, CW, DVN, ^DJT, D, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, EXC, FFG, FDP, GPS, GE, GNW, GES, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HOV, HUBG, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, TILE, IPG, INTU, JNJ, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, L, MHO, MAN, MLM, MDCA, MRK, MOS, MLI, MYL, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NI, NBL, NUS, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PICO, POL, PPG, PINC, PFG, PEG, PHM, KWR, RJF, RLI, RHI, ROK, RES, SAIA, SRE, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TPX, TDC, TXT, TKR, RIG, UGI, VMI, VMC, WRB, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYM, IAI, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWK, EWG, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWL, EWU, QLD, IEV, MXI, XLF, XLI, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Retail Building Supply
3. Shoe3. Air Transport
4. Retail Building Supply4. Shoe
5. Air Transport5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Furn/Home Furnishings6. Semiconductor
7. Semiconductor7. Chemical (Basic)
8. Apparel8. E-Commerce
9. Chemical (Basic)9. Healthcare Information
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Chemical (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Aerospace/Defense50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Chemical (Specialty)53. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Petroleum (Integrated)
55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment55. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
56. Petroleum (Integrated)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 10/2/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AES, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AEL, ABC, AMN, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, AGO, ADP, AVY, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BOOT, BRC, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CX, CENX, CHD, CL, CONN, CLR, CROX, CCK, DECK, DVN, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FDP, GS, HIG, HSII, HSIC, HURC, IEX, IDXX, IIIN, ITGR, INTU, JNJ, KFRC, LAMR, LLY, MAN, MLM, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MS, MOS, MYGN, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NBL, OMI, OXM, PYPL, PETS, PICO, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RHI, SAIA, SMG, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SRDX, TJX, RIG, UGI, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WLK, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FXI, SLV, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PXJ, PJP, MXI, XLE, XHB, XLB, XLU, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMNBroadening top      09/02/202009/30/2020Human Resources
AGOPipe bottom      09/14/202009/21/2020Insurance (Life)
BBBYFlag, high and tight      07/31/202010/01/2020Retail (Special Lines)
BBYTriple bottom      09/08/202009/25/2020Retail (Special Lines)
COGPipe top      09/14/202009/21/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
CLRFalling wedge      09/14/202010/01/2020Petroleum (Producing)
COSTHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/11/202009/25/2020Retail Store
EIGIPipe bottom      09/14/202009/21/2020E-Commerce
IDXXPipe bottom      09/14/202009/21/2020Drug
LANCTriangle, ascending      08/27/202009/30/2020Food Processing
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202010/01/2020Metal Fabricating
MTSIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/08/202009/25/2020Semiconductor
MASBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/18/202009/25/2020Building Materials
OMIFlag, high and tight      08/07/202010/01/2020Medical Supplies
PYPLPipe bottom      09/14/202009/21/2020Financial Services
RMBSFalling wedge      08/24/202010/01/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RHITriangle, descending      09/03/202010/01/2020Human Resources
SUMTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/202010/01/2020Cement and Aggregates
AMTDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/15/202009/25/2020Securities Brokerage
TSCORectangle bottom      09/08/202009/29/2020Retail Building Supply

 

Top


Thursday 10/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast October Update

The index climbed by 0.7% or 82.26 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 432 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 264 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 168 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 196/352 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for October, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 29 September 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+26.4%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+21.6%),
3. Communication services (+7.5%),
6. Materials (+2.7%),
4. Health care (+1.9%),
5. Consumer staples (+.7%),
7. Industrials (-5.1%),
9. Utilities (-8.9%),
8. Real estate (-9.4%),
10. Financials (-22.7%),
11. and dead last is energy (-50.0%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+59.7%),
2. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+49.0%),
4. Air freight and logistics (46.8%)
3. Software (+34.1%),
7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+23.1%),
6. Metals & mining (+21.8%),
9. Life sciences tools & Services (+17.6%),
5. Interactive media & Services (+17.0%),
11. Specialty retail (+14.0%),
8. Entertainment (+12.9%),

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AKAM, ALRM, AMZN, AMED, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, AGO, BBBY, BIG, EPAY, CDNS, CRL, CONN, CR, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CW, DVN, DUK, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FIS, FEYE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, GFF, HQY, HSII, HELE, HNI, IDXX, INTU, IVC, LHX, LAWS, LXU, MHO, MLM, MLHR, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NEU, OMCL, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PDLI, PICO, RL, RJF, RHI, SHW, SKX, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TZOO, VMI, VMC, ITA, FTEC, IGE, EIS, EWY, EWT, THD, QLD, DBA, PHO, ROBO, IXC, XHB, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,699.12    
 Weekly S2  10,428.72  729.61   
 Monthly S1  10,433.31  4.59   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  10,798.12  364.80   
 Weekly Pivot  10,888.88  90.77   
 Daily S2  10,994.40  105.51   
 Daily S1  11,080.95  86.56   
 Open  11,092.90  11.95   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  11,092.90  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,163.59  70.69   
 Close  11,167.51  3.92   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  11,179.46  11.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,185.43  5.97   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,207.27  21.84   
 Monthly Pivot  11,253.69  46.42   
 Weekly R1  11,258.28  4.59   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  11,266.01  7.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  11,277.96  11.95   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R2  11,349.04  71.08   
 Daily R2  11,364.52  15.47   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  11,987.88  623.37   
 Monthly R2  12,808.26  820.37   

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

Copyright © 2005-2020 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer