As of 12/04/2020
  Indus: 30,218 +248.74 +0.8%  
  Trans: 12,742 +155.26 +1.2%  
  Utils: 856 -10.76 -1.2%  
  Nasdaq: 12,464 +87.05 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,699 +32.40 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.9%  
 +16.9%  
-2.6%  
 +38.9%  
 +14.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/30/2020  
  Up arrow30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020
  Down arrow830 or 925 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20
As of 12/04/2020
  Indus: 30,218 +248.74 +0.8%  
  Trans: 12,742 +155.26 +1.2%  
  Utils: 856 -10.76 -1.2%  
  Nasdaq: 12,464 +87.05 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,699 +32.40 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.9%  
 +16.9%  
-2.6%  
 +38.9%  
 +14.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/30/2020  
  Up arrow30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020
  Down arrow830 or 925 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20

Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast October Update

 

Released 9/30/2020.

Forecast Updated for October 2020

Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of September 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 4
chart pattern
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The bullish signal which happened 3 days ago is still in force. Notice that the index is climbing, which suggests the signal won't fade away, but a big move in the index could change that.

I always issue this warning nearly every time I get a signal change: the signal can change for up to a week, but is usually stable after three days.

The next chart looks at the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
chart pattern
Because of the steep drop in the Dow, the forecast looks flat (the large swing compressed the scale. See the entire forecast here, without compression).

The Dow has climbed back to the prediction (the red line) and has moved horizontally (more of less) in the circled region. Going into the end of the year, look for the index to climb.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
chart pattern
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The forecast for the index peaked in March, right when Covid-19 was at its worst. The forecast has dropped since then and is supposed to end the year near its low.

I drew a blue line to show how the peak in the forecast matches with the index. If the forecast is right, the index should continue lower, about 2,200 points.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
chart pattern
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

The forecast for the index remains flat for the year. Of course, the index has bounced around a lot this year. It is supposed to move horizontally from here on out to year's end.

The end.

See Also

 
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