Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/04/2020
  Indus: 30,218 +248.74 +0.8%  
  Trans: 12,742 +155.26 +1.2%  
  Utils: 856 -10.76 -1.2%  
  Nasdaq: 12,464 +87.05 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,699 +32.40 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.9%  
 +16.9%  
-2.6%  
 +38.9%  
 +14.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/30/2020  
  Up arrow30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020
  Down arrow830 or 925 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20
As of 12/04/2020
  Indus: 30,218 +248.74 +0.8%  
  Trans: 12,742 +155.26 +1.2%  
  Utils: 856 -10.76 -1.2%  
  Nasdaq: 12,464 +87.05 +0.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,699 +32.40 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.9%  
 +16.9%  
-2.6%  
 +38.9%  
 +14.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/30/2020  
  Up arrow30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020
  Down arrow830 or 925 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020
  Up arrow3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20

 

November 2020 Headlines

Archives


Monday 11/30/20. S&P Broadening Pattern

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

In the last month or two, two people have asked about the broadening pattern which appears in the indices. I'm guessing they saw it on some other website.

I show a chart of the S&P 500 index on the weekly scale. There's not much to say about it, though.

Price follows two trendlines. The top trendline slopes upward. The bottom one slopes downward. Price crosses the pattern from top to bottom plenty of times, filling the whitespace with price movement.

This is a nice looking broadening top.

However, a partial decline appears at A. In broadening tops, a partial decline correctly predicts an immediate and upward breakout 72% of the time. We might see an upward breakout as soon as Monday. Or not.

My guess? Yes, we'll see an upward breakout if not on Monday, then sometime this week.

It is possible that the growing Covid-19 pandemic will cause the market to pay more attention to the near term suffering that's going on. That might cause a dip. I think we're 2 to 3 weeks away before the infection rates and hospitalizations really move up. That's due to the holiday travel, of course. And Christmas is around the corner, prolonging another wave.

So I'm looking for the market to move higher marginally but take a nice dive. I plan to buy the dip if that happens.

After the pandemic is over, I think we'll be hitting new highs.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 328.09 points.
Tuesday: Up 454.67 points.
Wednesday: Down 173.77 points.
Friday: Up 37.9 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 646.89 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 350.88 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 80.81 points or 2.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.7% down from the high of 30,116.51 on 11/24/2020.
     64.2% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 12,236.23 on 11/27/2020.
     84.1% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 3,645.99 on 11/09/2020.
     66.0% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,720  29,815  29,915  30,010  30,110 
Weekly  29,003  29,457  29,787  30,240  30,570 
Monthly  24,751  27,331  28,724  31,303  32,696 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,622  3,630  3,637  3,645  3,652 
Weekly  3,520  3,579  3,612  3,671  3,703 
Monthly  3,094  3,366  3,506  3,778  3,918 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,117  12,162  12,199  12,243  12,281 
Weekly  11,640  11,923  12,080  12,363  12,519 
Monthly  10,341  11,274  11,755  12,687  13,169 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AEO, ACGL, ASH, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BKH, BAH, CNP, CMTL, CROX, DTE, DUK, RE, FDS, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FRD, GPS, HL, HON, INTC, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LNC, LMT, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, ^IXIC, NFG, NKE, OXY, OMI, PTEN, PNW, PINC, RJF, RLI, ROK, SMG, SO, SCCO, TDOC, TXT, TMO, TZOO, VFC, WRB, ITA, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IGV, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, THD, QLD, PBE, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLF, GLD, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Apparel3. Apparel
4. Semiconductor4. Shoe
5. Shoe5. Furn/Home Furnishings
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Retail (Special Lines)
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Homebuilding
8. Homebuilding8. Cement and Aggregates
9. Metal Fabricating9. Semiconductor
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Metal Fabricating
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Aerospace/Defense50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Chemical (Specialty)53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Biotechnology
57. Biotechnology57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/27/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 9 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ASH, BCPC, BAX, HL, OMI, PNW, SO, TDOC, WRB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag, high and tight      10/02/202011/25/2020Electronics
AAFlag, high and tight      10/02/202011/25/2020Aerospace/Defense
AIGCup with handle      06/08/202011/20/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
APAFlag, high and tight      10/29/202011/25/2020Petroleum (Producing)
BAXPipe top      11/09/202011/16/2020Medical Supplies
CLNEFlag, high and tight      09/24/202011/25/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
CLFFlag, high and tight      09/25/202011/25/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
DVNFlag, high and tight      10/29/202011/25/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
DDSTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202011/25/2020Retail Store
RECup with handle      08/11/202011/24/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXPDTriangle, symmetrical      11/03/202011/25/2020Air Transport
FOETriangle, symmetrical      11/04/202011/20/2020Chemical (Specialty)
GPSDead-cat bounce      11/25/202011/25/2020Apparel
HPFlag, high and tight      10/02/202011/25/2020Petroleum (Producing)
HONTriangle, symmetrical      11/09/202011/25/2020Aerospace/Defense
HOVRising wedge      08/18/202011/25/2020Homebuilding
MFlag, high and tight      10/02/202011/25/2020Retail Store
JWNFlag, high and tight      09/29/202011/25/2020Retail Store
NOCTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/202011/25/2020Aerospace/Defense
OXYFlag, high and tight      10/29/202011/25/2020Petroleum (Producing)
OMIPipe bottom      11/09/202011/16/2020Medical Supplies
RCKYTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202011/25/2020Shoe
TECHTriangle, ascending      11/10/202011/25/2020Biotechnology
SLCAFlag, high and tight      10/30/202011/25/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
VCFlag, high and tight      09/25/202011/25/2020Electronics
IGVTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202011/25/2020Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 11/26/19. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Picture of my dog

Thursday is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, ALKS, ANTM, APOG, ATR, ASH, ADP, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BBY, BKH, BBW, CBT, CALM, CPB, CE, CVX, CMTL, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CMI, RE, EVH, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FTNT, FRD, GME, GPS, GD, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HL, HELE, HOV, ITW, ILMN, INOV, INTC, LANC, LEG, LXU, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MDC, MSFT, NFG, NXGN, NKE, JWN, OMI, PNW, REV, CRM, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SXI, TGT, TDOC, TXN, TXT, TREX, VRSN, V, WRB, WMT, IYM, FDN, FXL, IHF, EWG, EWM, EWL, THD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,389.51    
 Monthly S1  11,241.96  852.44   
 Monthly Pivot  11,675.01  433.06   
 Weekly S2  11,745.99  70.97   
 Weekly S1  11,920.19  174.21   
 Weekly Pivot  11,935.19  14.99   
 Daily S2  11,982.89  47.70   
 Low  12,020.95  38.06   
 Daily S1  12,038.64  17.69   
 Open  12,053.89  15.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,056.79  2.90   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,067.86  11.07   
 Daily Pivot  12,076.71  8.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,078.93  2.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  12,094.40  15.47   
 Weekly R1  12,109.39  14.99   
 High  12,114.77  5.38   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  12,124.39  9.62   
 Daily R1  12,132.46  8.08   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  12,170.53  38.06   
 Monthly R1  12,527.46  356.93   
 Monthly R2  12,960.51  433.06   

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Wednesday 11/25/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I'm bullish. I've been cutting one position to capture capital losses to use against my winnings. Then I've been using the capital to buy more stocks. The market is looking beyond the pandemic and seeing an economic recovery.

This chart doesn't give me the same kind of enthusiasm. Yes, it's still bullish, but the index is looking tired to me, like it wants to retrace. The CPI tried to signal that retrace with the recent dip, but the index ignored it. That's a sign of strength but notice that the index didn't shoot higher. It went sideways for the last week or two.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 33%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines made bullish progress this week compared to a week ago. The red line, looking from the left to the right on the chart, has made a nice move higher. In late May, early June, it got a bit frothy leading to the June peak. A retrace in the index calmed it down.

I drew two red circles on the chart. Notice that the slopes are not exact, but similar. That worries me. It suggests the index will move horizontally for a few weeks. That's if the index behaves like it did in June to July.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AYI, ALK, AA, ADS, AYX, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AON, APA, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ATO, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIO, BKH, BA, BKNG, CBT, CE, CLS, CF, CVX, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CTS, CW, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, EIGI, EOG, EPAM, EFX, RE, EXC, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FLIR, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FRD, IT, GE, GL, GS, EVRG, THG, HSC, HQY, HL, HP, HON, DHI, JBHT, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LAWS, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, OXY, OGE, OMC, OMI, OXM, PATK, PTEN, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PFG, PGR, PRU, PHM, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, ROST, RES, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SRE, NOW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SR, STMP, SXI, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TJX, TOL, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VC, VMC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IAT, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLI, XLB, XAR, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/24/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.1% or 328.09 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 369 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 213 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 156 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/374 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/84 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Human Genome Science: HGSI stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

I released a new version (7.27) of Patternz. I added support for 8 new chart patterns, including the cup with handle. It's free to download and use with no registration nor spyware/malware.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, ACIW, AYI, AFL, ALB, AA, AYX, AMED, AMWD, AMN, APA, APOG, ATR, ARW, AGO, BAX, BZH, BIO, BIIB, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CF, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, COTY, CR, CRH, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DVN, DOV, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EVH, FDS, FDX, FISV, FLS, FRD, GPS, GE, GNW, GS, EVRG, GES, HTLD, HL, HP, HNI, HON, DHI, INCY, INFN, TILE, IPG, IPI, JNJ, KALU, K, LH, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MAS, MDCA, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NJR, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OLN, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, POL, POR, PFG, PGR, QCOM, RJF, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, RES, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SCCO, SWN, SNPS, TGT, TMO, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WERN, WLK, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, PPA, PEJ, IXC, XLE, XLF, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,746.02    
 Monthly S1  27,168.80  2,422.77   
 Monthly Pivot  28,566.54  1,397.75   
 Weekly S2  28,858.84  292.29   
 Daily S2  29,195.78  336.95   
 Weekly S1  29,225.20  29.42   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  29,332.82  107.62   
 Open  29,332.82  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  29,393.68  60.86   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,460.76  67.09   
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,500.29  39.52   
 Daily Pivot  29,530.71  30.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,539.81  9.09   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  29,591.57  51.76   
 Weekly Pivot  29,594.75  3.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  29,667.75  73.00   
 Daily R1  29,728.61  60.86   
 Daily R2  29,865.64  137.04   
 Weekly R1  29,961.11  95.47   
 Weekly R2  30,330.66  369.54   
 Monthly R1  30,989.32  658.66   
 Monthly R2  32,387.06  1,397.75   

Monday 11/23/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At AB, there's a double bottom. It's not a pretty pattern (because the bottoms are uneven in price), but it's there nonetheless.

The pattern confirms at C when the index closes above the red line. That means the double bottom becomes a valid chart pattern. However, the chart shows that the index didn't shoot higher. Rather, it meandered up to sideways and is struggling to find its way.

I don't show a longer-term chart (same daily scale but more history). What you see on that longer chart is the current peak matching the height of the February peak. That's a sign of overhead resistance. It's an example of a 2B chart pattern.

That pattern suggests the index will drop some going forward. I don't expect a big plunge, but it'll probably be covid-news driven. Maybe politics will play a role. So I'm looking for a short-term drop followed by a recovery. If the drop lasts long enough, the approval of the vaccine for emergency use will shoot the market upward. So you can position yourself now because it's going to come.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 470.63 points.
Tuesday: Down 167.09 points.
Wednesday: Down 344.93 points.
Thursday: Up 44.81 points.
Friday: Down 219.75 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 216.33 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 25.68 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 27.61 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.3% down from the high of 29,964.29 on 11/16/2020.
     60.7% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     2.1% down from the high of 12,108.07 on 11/09/2020.
     78.8% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     2.4% down from the high of 3,645.99 on 11/09/2020.
     62.3% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,083  29,173  29,322  29,412  29,560 
Weekly  28,749  29,006  29,485  29,742  30,221 
Monthly  24,637  26,950  28,457  30,771  32,278 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,541  3,549  3,565  3,574  3,590 
Weekly  3,492  3,525  3,577  3,609  3,661 
Monthly  3,067  3,312  3,479  3,724  3,891 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,798  11,826  11,881  11,909  11,964 
Weekly  11,666  11,761  11,855  11,950  12,045 
Monthly  10,310  11,082  11,595  12,368  12,881 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

I found 79 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMZN, AMED, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, AAPL, ADM, BAX, BIO, BOOT, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CMCO, CMTL, CREE, DECK, D, DOV, EPAM, EL, RE, EXC, FEYE, FE, FLIR, FMC, FRD, GPRO, HE, HSII, HD, DHI, IDXX, INFN, IPI, JCOM, KELYA, KMT, LEG, RAMP, LXU, MAS, MDC, MCO, MLI, NFG, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PATK, PGR, QCOM, DGX, ROK, ROST, SMG, SCCO, SWN, STMP, SNPS, TEVA, TMO, TREX, UPS, VRSN, WRB, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, IHI, EWA, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, THD, PXJ, XLY, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Shoe
3. Apparel3. Homebuilding
4. Shoe4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Apparel
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Human Resources
7. Homebuilding7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Cement and Aggregates8. Metal Fabricating
9. Semiconductor9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
10. Metal Fabricating10. Retail (Special Lines)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Food Processing
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Chemical (Specialty)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Biotechnology56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Biotechnology
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/20/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 171 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AMD, AFL, ALB, AMED, AEP, AMWD, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BMI, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BKH, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHD, CINF, CTXS, CMCO, CMTL, ED, COTY, CREE, CROX, CCK, CTS, DECK, DVN, DDS, ^DJU, D, EMN, EIX, EFX, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, FAST, FIS, FISV, FORM, FRD, GPS, IT, GIS, GPN, EVRG, HLIT, HE, HSII, HSIC, HSY, DHI, JBHT, IDXX, INTU, IVC, KALU, KMT, KLAC, LB, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, MU, MCO, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NCR, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PGR, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, SWX, SXI, SNPS, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TREX, UPS, VLO, VRSN, WRB, WSO, WSM, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, ITB, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, FXI, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, TUR, QLD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, GLD, XHB, XRT, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
CBTTriangle, symmetrical      10/29/202011/19/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CHSFlag, high and tight      10/01/202011/19/2020Apparel
COTYFlag, high and tight      09/29/202011/19/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLIRRising wedge      10/23/202011/19/2020Aerospace/Defense
GFFDead-cat bounce      11/13/202011/13/2020Building Materials
HOVRising wedge      08/18/202011/19/2020Homebuilding
IPGDiamond top      11/09/202011/19/2020Advertising
LBRectangle top      10/01/202011/18/2020Apparel
MLMTriangle, symmetrical      11/06/202011/19/2020Cement and Aggregates
PTENFlag, high and tight      10/29/202011/18/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RNGBroadening top      10/05/202011/13/2020Computer Software and Svcs
SKXDiamond top      10/05/202011/19/2020Shoe
SWNBroadening top      10/09/202011/18/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
TMOPipe top      11/02/202011/09/2020Precision Instrument
RIGFlag, high and tight      10/30/202011/19/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VRSNPipe top      11/02/202011/09/2020Internet

 

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Thursday 11/19/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish Rect Breakout

The index dropped by -0.8% or -97.74 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 259 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 129 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 130 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 201/359 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a rectangle top chart pattern as the two parallel red lines. It's a nice rectangle, too, with plenty of touches on the top and bottom. It has broken out downward when the index closed below the bottom trendline.

How far will the index drop?

One answer to that is measured in probabilities. Take the height of the pattern and subtract it from the bottom trendline. That's the target but it'll only be hit 54% of the time. It's almost there now...

I show my target in green. It begins from a knot at A. Research tells there a good chance of it turning there. But that really applies to the daily charts and stocks, not the indices.

With things so volatile at the open intraday, who knows what will happen.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 208 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, AKAM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, AMWD, ANTM, AMAT, ASH, AIZ, ADP, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BA, BG, CBT, COG, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNC, CRL, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CNA, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CRH, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DDS, DFS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, XOM, FFG, FTNT, GPS, IT, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HSC, HTLD, HSII, HOLX, DHI, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, KALU, K, KLIC, LB, LHX, LZB, LH, LNC, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MANH, MAN, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MLI, MYGN, NFG, CNR, NI, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, POL, PPG, PGR, KWR, RHI, ROK, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWX, SWN, SXI, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, RIG, TG, TREX, UPS, VLO, VRSN, WRB, WMB, WWW, IYM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IHE, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWT, EWU, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLB, SPY, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,291.91    
 Monthly S1  11,046.76  754.84   
 Weekly S2  11,094.63  47.88   
 Weekly S1  11,448.12  353.48   
 Monthly Pivot  11,577.41  129.30   
 Daily S2  11,705.49  128.07   
 Daily S1  11,753.54  48.06   
 Weekly Pivot  11,778.09  24.55   
 Low  11,799.96  21.87   
 Close  11,801.60  1.64   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,848.02  46.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,854.41  6.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,871.22  16.82   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,888.04  16.82   
 Open  11,896.06  8.02   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  11,896.07  0.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  11,942.49  46.42   
 Daily R2  11,990.55  48.06   
 Weekly R1  12,131.58  141.03   
 Monthly R1  12,332.26  200.68   
 Weekly R2  12,461.55  129.30   
 Monthly R2  12,862.91  401.36   

Wednesday 11/18/20. Indicators Bullish But...

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Over the past week, the index has continued to move higher, but it seems to be coasting upward now.

The indicator has moved sideways for most of the month. What does this mean?

Let's look at May and June (the blue circle on the left) when the index moved sideways after reaching or nearing its ceiling. Then it tumbled, dropping to the bottom of the scale. A bearish signal occurred near A which saw the index drop to B. That decline was only a few days long and it pales in comparison to the swift decline in the CPI (from 100 to 0).

So I expect a similar retrace. Not a big decline, just a week's worth of weakness which will take it to 360 or above (on the right scale, on this chart), or about 3400 on the index (left scale). After that, I expect a continued rise.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 38%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red and blue indicator lines improved from a week ago. They seem oblivious to the coming decline. That's no surprise because these two show weakness only after it happens.

They remain bullish. I'm skeptical. I think the market will remain bullish but Covid-19 news is not good and it's going to get very bad. Of course, the market is looking past it, to a recovery next year. Between now and then, I expect some bumps along the way.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALL, AMED, AEE, APOG, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, EPAY, COG, CDNS, CALM, CX, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CMTL, CSOD, COST, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, EIX, EPAM, FICO, FLIR, GE, GS, GES, HOLX, HD, DHI, HURC, IDXX, ITGR, IPG, IPI, JKHY, KSS, LB, LAMR, LAWS, RAMP, LXU, MRTN, MAS, MCO, NFG, NEU, NVDA, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PINC, PGR, RL, RJF, RGA, ROK, RES, SCHW, SMG, SWN, SR, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TMO, TREX, UPS, VRSN, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYK, IHI, IYZ, EWQ, EWS, EWL, DBA, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/17/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.6% or 470.63 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 157 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 77 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 80 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/374 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/83 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Insteel Industries (IIIN) (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 403 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ARW, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BKH, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CE, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CSGS, CMI, CW, DVN, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FE, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, EVRG, GFF, GES, THG, HSC, HE, HAYN, HL, HP, HSY, HNI, HON, ILMN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LH, LDOS, LLY, LNC, LMT, L, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NKE, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PDLI, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POL, PINC, PFG, PRU, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, WRB, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,885.95    
 Monthly S1  27,418.20  2,532.24   
 Weekly S2  28,563.77  1,145.57   
 Monthly Pivot  28,676.01  112.25   
 Weekly S1  29,257.10  581.09   
 Daily S2  29,570.43  313.33   
 Weekly Pivot  29,595.47  25.03   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  29,672.36  76.89   
 Open  29,672.36  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  29,760.44  88.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,783.88  23.44   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,818.32  34.45   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,852.77  34.45   
 Daily Pivot  29,862.36  9.59   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  29,950.44  88.08   
 High  29,964.29  13.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  30,052.37  88.08   
 Daily R2  30,154.29  101.93   
 Weekly R1  30,288.80  134.51   
 Weekly R2  30,627.17  338.36   
 Monthly R1  31,208.26  581.09   
 Monthly R2  32,466.07  1,257.82   

Monday 11/16/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This chart shows an Adam & Eve double bottom at AB. Notice how price made a strong move higher after the pattern completed. That's what's supposed to happen.

More recent is the pattern at C. What's it called?

It has the shape of a megaphone so some might call it that. But the common name for it is a broadening top. Look for two trendlines which diverge. The top trendline slopes upward and the bottom one slopes downward. The top in broadening top means it appears in an uptrend.

New research says broadening tops breakout upward 60% of the time.

The knot at D could be what I call a partial decline. A partial decline appears after the pattern obeys all of the identification guidelines (which this one does). Price bounces off the top trendline, drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before heading back up and soaring out the top of the chart pattern.

For these patterns, a partial decline means an immediate upward breakout 72% of the time. That means price will rise to the top of the pattern and breakout then. It's not a guarantee, of course, so keep that in mind.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 834.57 points.
Tuesday: Up 262.95 points.
Wednesday: Down 23.29 points.
Thursday: Down 317.46 points.
Friday: Up 399.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1156.41 points or 4.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 62.94 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 75.71 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.5% down from the high of 29,933.83 on 11/09/2020.
     61.9% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     2.3% down from the high of 12,108.07 on 11/09/2020.
     78.4% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     1.7% down from the high of 3,645.99 on 11/09/2020.
     63.6% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,059  29,269  29,414  29,625  29,770 
Weekly  28,407  28,943  29,439  29,975  30,470 
Monthly  24,729  27,104  28,519  30,895  32,309 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,536  3,561  3,577  3,602  3,618 
Weekly  3,447  3,516  3,581  3,650  3,715 
Monthly  3,076  3,331  3,488  3,743  3,900 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,664  11,747  11,798  11,881  11,932 
Weekly  11,104  11,467  11,787  12,150  12,471 
Monthly  10,301  11,065  11,587  12,351  12,872 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

I found 79 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 229 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ALRM, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, AWI, ARW, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EIX, EMR, EOG, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FICO, FIS, FISV, FMC, FORM, IT, GD, GPN, GS, EVRG, GFF, GES, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSY, HNI, ILMN, INOV, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LH, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LLY, LMT, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, NTAP, NKE, JWN, OXY, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEIC, SO, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, V, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IHE, DDM, FTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Homebuilding3. Homebuilding
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Semiconductor
5. Apparel5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Human Resources6. Retail (Special Lines)
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Retail Building Supply
8. Metal Fabricating8. Precision Instrument
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Retail (Special Lines)10. Chemical (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Advertising
51. Food Processing51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Chemical (Specialty)52. Biotechnology
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Aerospace/Defense
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Petroleum (Producing)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Natural Gas (Diversified)
57. Biotechnology57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Short ETFs
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Integrated)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/13/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 275 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, APD, ALRM, AA, ALKS, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BMY, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, EXC, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FOE, FIS, FE, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FMC, GPS, GPN, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HAYN, HL, HELE, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, ITW, ILMN, INFN, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LH, LEG, LEN, LLY, LMT, M, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, CNR, NTAP, NKE, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, LUV, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 79 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 85 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Apparel
ACNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020IT Services
AFLPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Insurance (Diversified)
AYXDead-cat bounce      11/05/202011/06/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AELPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Insurance (Life)
AXPPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Financial Services
APAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Producing)
ARWPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Electronics
ATOHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/20/202011/06/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
AXSBroadening bottom      10/05/202011/10/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BMIPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Precision Instrument
BECNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Retail Building Supply
BERYPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Packaging and Container
BIIBDead-cat bounce      11/09/202011/09/2020Biotechnology
BAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Aerospace/Defense
BKNGPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Internet
BRCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Chemical (Diversified)
CNCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Medical Services
CENXPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CFPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Chemical (Basic)
CIENPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Telecom. Equipment
CSCOPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computers and Peripherals
CMCOPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Machinery
CMTLPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Telecom. Equipment
COPPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
CLRPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Producing)
CRPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Diversified Co.
CRHBroadening top      08/24/202011/10/2020Cement and Aggregates
CSGSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020IT Services
CWPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Machinery
^DJTPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020None
^DJIPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020None
EMRPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computers and Peripherals
EOGPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
EFXPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Information Services
EXCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Electric Utility (East)
EZPWPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Financial Services
FICOPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020IT Services
FFGTriangle, symmetrical      09/04/202011/06/2020Insurance (Life)
FISPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computer Software and Svcs
GPNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computer Software and Svcs
GSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Securities Brokerage
HAYNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Building Materials
HELEBroadening top      10/12/202011/10/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
HSYPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Food Processing
HNIPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
ISRGPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Medical Supplies
JNJPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Medical Supplies
KDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/30/202011/10/2020Food Processing
KELYAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Human Resources
KFRCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Human Resources
KMBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/29/202011/10/2020Household Products
RAMPDead-cat bounce      11/10/202011/10/2020Computer Software and Svcs
MBroadening bottom      06/29/202011/09/2020Retail Store
MROPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
MRTNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Financial Services
MTRNPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
MUPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Semiconductor
MLHRPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
MSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Securities Brokerage
MURPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
MYLPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Drug
NBRFlag, high and tight      10/02/202011/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NTGRHead-and-shoulders top      10/12/202011/09/2020Telecom. Equipment
NTAPPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computers and Peripherals
NEERoof, inverted      10/12/202011/06/2020Electric Utility (East)
OXYPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Petroleum (Producing)
OLNFlag, high and tight      09/11/202011/11/2020Chemical (Basic)
OUTFlag      11/10/202011/12/2020Advertising
PANWPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Computer Software and Svcs
PKEPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Chemical (Specialty)
PDCOPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Medical Supplies
PFEPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Drug
PCGPipe bottom      11/02/202011/02/2020Electric Utility (West)
PLXSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Electronics
PRUPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Insurance (Life)
RGAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Insurance (Life)
REVPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
RNGBroadening top      10/05/202011/12/2020Computer Software and Svcs
ROSTPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Retail (Special Lines)
^GSPCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020None
SAIAPennant      11/10/202011/12/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SEICPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020IT Services
SREDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/30/202011/06/2020Electric Utility (West)
LUVPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Air Transport
SWNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/02/202011/09/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
SCSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
SSYSPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Electronics
TPRFlag, high and tight      09/10/202011/09/2020Apparel
TEVAPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Drug
TJXPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Retail Store
TGPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Chemical (Specialty)
TREXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/13/202011/09/2020Building Materials
UGIPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
UNMPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Insurance (Diversified)
VFCPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Apparel
VPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Financial Services
WEXPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Information Services
WMBPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
XARPipe bottom      10/26/202011/02/2020Aerospace/Defense

 

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Thursday 11/12/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.0% or 232.57 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 49 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 31 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 18 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 201/358 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

One week ago, I urged caution because of two ascending and inverted scallops appearing on the Nasdaq. I show them in red, cleverly labeled A.

The index moved sideways for a day and a half, perked up on Monday and then tumbled within minutes of the open. Recently, at B, it formed a symmetrical triangle.

The triangle led to a move higher at the open on Wednesday but leveled off for most of the session, hitting overhead resistance at 11,800.

The only thing I know for certain is that I don't know what's going to happen next. I'll leave it up to the reader of this blog to decide. Maybe the futures before the open will provide direction, but even they have been acting unusual.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 304 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, AA, ALKS, DOX, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIO, BA, BKNG, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BMY, BRKS, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FFG, FOE, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FRD, GPS, GPN, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, HON, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KMB, LEG, LLY, LMT, LXU, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, NTAP, NKE, NUS, OXY, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SEIC, NOW, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,381.88    
 Weekly S2  10,420.56  38.68   
 Monthly S1  11,084.15  663.60   
 Weekly S1  11,103.49  19.34   
 Weekly Pivot  11,513.89  410.39   
 Monthly Pivot  11,524.85  10.96   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S2  11,584.96  60.12   
 Low  11,638.90  53.94   
 Open  11,656.65  17.75   
 Daily S1  11,685.70  29.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,697.98  12.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,716.24  18.25   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,734.49  18.25   
 Daily Pivot  11,739.63  5.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,786.43  46.80   
 High  11,793.57  7.14   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  11,840.37  46.80   
 Daily R2  11,894.30  53.94   
 Weekly R1  12,196.82  302.52   
 Monthly R1  12,227.12  30.30   
 Weekly R2  12,607.22  380.09   
 Monthly R2  12,667.82  60.60   

Wednesday 11/11/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A bullish signal is clear by the vertical green bar. However, look at the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart. It has peaked below 100.

It think that's an indication of it heading lower. Coupled with the index peaking and heading down today, it looks like it's time for a retrace. The last week was all uphill, so it's time for a give back.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 38% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago. That's the good news.

What's the bad news? I don't see any in this chart. These two indicators follow the price movement closely and rarely tell anything useful (in my opinion anyway).

I don't see any divergence either.

The prior chart is bullish but warning of a downturn. This chart is neutral. That downturn (CPI chart) is a weak signal, formed by today's drop and supported by the indicator not reaching 100, but peaking below that (at like 84). The index could continue higher, but I think the index is tired and a retrace will happen.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 264 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AMZN, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DHR, DDS, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FB, FICO, FIS, FLIR, FMC, FTNT, GME, GPN, GS, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSY, HNI, JBHT, ILMN, INFN, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LEG, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRN, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, MYGN, NTAP, NKE, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, RNG, ROST, RES, CRM, SEIC, NOW, SCCO, LUV, SWN, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/10/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 2.9% or 834.57 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 19 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 9 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 10 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/374 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/82 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Frontier Airlines stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 424 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AYX, DOX, AMED, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AXS, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CVX, CHS, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, ED, COP, CLR, GLW, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EL, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FFG, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, EVRG, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HON, HOV, HURC, IDA, IEX, IDXX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LB, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PRFT, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, POR, PPG, PINC, PFG, PG, PRU, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VRSN, V, VC, WRB, WMT, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  25,271.75    
 Weekly S2  26,311.00  1,039.25   
 Monthly S1  27,214.86  903.86   
 Weekly S1  27,734.48  519.63   
 Monthly Pivot  28,086.88  352.40   
 Weekly Pivot  28,114.77  27.89   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  28,604.32  489.55   
 Daily S1  28,881.14  276.83   
 Low  29,130.66  249.52   
 Close  29,157.97  27.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  29,407.49  249.52   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,437.47  29.98   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  29,467.90  30.43   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,532.24  64.34   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  29,538.25  6.01   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,627.02  88.77   
 Daily R1  29,684.31  57.29   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R2  29,918.54  234.22   
 High  29,933.83  15.29   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  30,029.99  96.16   
 Daily R2  30,210.66  180.67   
 Monthly R2  30,902.01  691.35   

Monday 11/9/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Two patterns appear on the chart, which I've highlighted in red. They are both broadening patterns. The first one, in September, is a broadening bottom.

It appears after a short-term downtrend from the peak in August. Price touches each trendline at least twice with at least five or more touches, total. The touch count is important for correct identification.

This pattern leads to a strong move higher.

The more recent broadening pattern is a broadening top. It appears in an upward price trend. It's not as good a pattern as the prior one because of the touch count.

As the pattern develops, price might touch the top trendline for a third time, giving the pattern the needed five trendline touches.

Even though it falls short of five touches, the broadening appearance is clear, so I think it's a valid pattern.

A look at the stats says broadening tops breakout upward 60% of the time, so that's the way to bet.

However, the last four days, where price attempted to reach the top trendline and fell short, suggests weakness. Lots of things can happen to sway the utilities. Price might push higher. It might continue to move sideways before making its move. Or price could tumble. We're already seeing weakness.

As with many chart patterns, we won't know the breakout direction until it happens.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 423.45 points.
Tuesday: Up 554.98 points.
Wednesday: Up 367.63 points.
Thursday: Up 542.52 points.
Friday: Down 66.78 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1821.8 points or 6.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 980.64 points or 9.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 239.48 points or 7.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.2% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     55.5% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     79.3% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     60.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  28,072  28,198  28,315  28,440  28,557 
Weekly  26,033  27,178  27,837  28,982  29,640 
Monthly  24,994  26,658  27,809  29,474  30,624 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,468  3,489  3,505  3,526  3,542 
Weekly  3,190  3,350  3,439  3,599  3,689 
Monthly  3,115  3,312  3,431  3,628  3,747 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,667  11,779  11,850  11,963  12,033 
Weekly  10,456  11,174  11,549  12,267  12,642 
Monthly  10,417  11,155  11,560  12,298  12,703 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 159 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, AKAM, ALRM, AYX, AEL, AXP, AMWD, AMN, APOG, ATR, AXS, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BKH, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CX, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CLX, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CSOD, COTY, DECK, EXP, EOG, EPAM, EQT, FE, FLEX, FTNT, GPRO, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HOV, HURC, IDA, INFN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IPI, INTU, IVC, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, LB, LAWS, LEG, RAMP, LMT, MDCA, MS, MOS, MLI, MYL, NBR, CNR, NJR, NWL, NKE, NOC, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PICO, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, DGX, RL, RJF, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SRE, SKX, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, TXN, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, IYK, IYC, ICF, IAT, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWM, EWS, EWL, DBA, PJP, MXI, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Homebuilding3. Homebuilding
4. Semiconductor4. Retail Building Supply
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Cement and Aggregates
7. Retail Building Supply7. Precision Instrument
8. Precision Instrument8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Chemical (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Advertising50. Biotechnology
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Biotechnology52. Advertising
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Aerospace/Defense
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Natural Gas (Diversified)56. Short ETFs
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Short ETFs58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Petroleum (Integrated)59. Petroleum (Integrated)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/6/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, APD, AKAM, ALB, ALL, AMZN, AMED, AMWD, APH, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AXS, BSET, BAX, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CAL, CLNE, CL, CAG, CSOD, COTY, CCRN, DHR, DECK, D, EBAY, EMR, EPAM, FB, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HL, HOV, NSP, TILE, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LNC, LMT, LXU, MTSI, M, MRO, MA, MTRX, MDT, MU, MSFT, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NEE, NKE, NOC, NUS, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PINC, PGR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, ROG, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SNPS, TECH, TPX, TER, TEVA, TXN, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, VRSN, V, WAT, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, UNG, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 4 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 0.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 2 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
CGNXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/15/202010/30/2020Precision Instrument
DECKTriangle, symmetrical      10/19/202011/04/2020Shoe
HBIDead-cat bounce      11/05/202011/05/2020Apparel
HOVPipe bottom      10/19/202010/26/2020Homebuilding
NJRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/14/202011/03/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

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Thursday 11/5/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Caution!

The index climbed by 3.9% or 430.21 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 5 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 3 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 2 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/357 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/116 or 49.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At EA, the index formed an Eve & Adam double bottom. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern (when price closed above the peak between the two bottoms) and that led to a large gain.

More recent than that pattern, an ascending and inverted scallop appears at B and C. Do you notice anything peculiar about these two patterns?

Answer: Yes. C is larger than B. I've noticed this both ways: in a series of scallops in an uptrend, most get narrower the higher up the price trend they appear. In a few instances, they get larger (taller, wider). And this is an example. If we see a third inverted and ascending scallop that is wider than or taller than C, then it probably marks the end of the uptrend. No guarantees, of course.

Even the appearance of a third scallop, regardless of the size, sings a note of caution. That's especially true if the start and end of the pattern appear near the same price (so it doesn't really look like a scallop).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AXS, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CDNS, CPB, CX, CRL, CHS, ED, CSOD, COTY, DHR, EBAY, EQT, FICO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLIR, FTNT, FDP, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HOLX, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, IPI, INTU, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, LHX, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LMT, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MRO, MA, MDC, MRK, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, NXGN, JWN, NOC, OMC, OMI, PKG, PDLI, PFE, PNW, PINC, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RHI, ROG, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, TPX, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, V, WERN, WEX, IYC, ITB, IHI, IHE, QTEC, FXI, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, PPA, PJP, IXN, SSO, XLV, SPY, XLK, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,316.66    
 Weekly S2  10,596.61  279.95   
 Monthly S1  10,953.72  357.11   
 Weekly S1  11,093.69  139.97   
 Daily S2  11,280.33  186.64   
 Weekly Pivot  11,319.66  39.32   
 Low  11,394.21  74.55   
 Daily S1  11,435.56  41.35   
 Open  11,443.77  8.21   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  11,459.63  15.86   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,497.01  37.38   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,528.76  31.75   
 Daily Pivot  11,549.43  20.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,560.51  11.08   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  11,590.78  30.27   
 High  11,663.31  72.53   
 Daily R1  11,704.66  41.35   
 Weekly R1  11,816.74  112.09   
 Daily R2  11,818.53  1.79   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  12,042.71  224.17   
 Monthly R1  12,096.69  53.98   
 Monthly R2  12,602.60  505.91   

Wednesday 11/4/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

With today's (Tuesday's) gain, the indicator flipped from bearish to bullish. Although the signal appears to have flipped on Monday, it really changed on Tuesday and backdated, if you will, to Monday.

In other words, the signal can change for up to a week. We see that it's bullish now and the index is rising.

Let's check what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 46%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The more sensitive red line shows no change from a week ago, which is puzzling. The blue line, however, shows a minor move higher. That's a plus.

Taken together, the two charts are turning bullish. The prior chart shows the thin blue indicator line spiking higher, which changed Monday's view from bearish to bullish. This chart is bullish too, but very mildly.

My view is that the upswing will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADTN, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AEL, AXP, ABC, AMN, APH, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADP, AVY, AXS, BAX, BECN, BBY, BAH, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CX, CNC, CHS, CLX, CNA, COP, CLGX, CR, CRH, CTS, CMI, DECK, DDS, DFS, DOV, EQT, RE, XOM, FAST, FOE, FLIR, FLS, FCX, FRD, IT, GNW, GL, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HE, HQY, HL, HSIC, HOV, ITW, INFN, TILE, IPG, IVC, JCOM, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LH, LANC, LNC, M, MAN, MTRX, MGEE, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NXGN, OGE, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PDCO, PDLI, PNW, PPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, KWR, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, ROK, SAIA, SAIC, SO, SWX, SWN, SXI, SCS, TECH, TXT, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VRSN, IYM, IAI, DDM, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, PXJ, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/3/20. Recent Research

The index climbed by 1.6% or 423.45 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 156 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 76 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 80 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/374 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 40/81 or 49.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I've been doing research on new patterns and testing old ones. Here's a link to testing old patterns. These are short patterns, two to four days long. I wanted to know how they worked as reversal patterns. It you're interested in short term bearish patterns, take a look.

I completed my analysis of the bearish Carl V chart pattern (I mentioned the bullish version on 10/13/20). It's a new chart pattern, founded by Carl Vanhaesendonck. I include his trading rules and tested how well the pattern worked, using those rules.

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Here's a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AEL, AIG, ABC, AAPL, ADM, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, BG, CACI, CX, CF, CNA, CMCO, CONN, CLR, CLGX, COST, CRH, CMI, DFS, DOV, EMR, EIGI, FIS, FRD, GME, GFF, HSC, HE, HL, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IPI, ISRG, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, LLY, L, MANH, MDCA, MU, MOS, NEE, NKE, PFE, PPG, PFG, PGR, PRU, RGA, RHI, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SMTC, LUV, SRDX, SNPS, TXT, TKR, TREX, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VMC, WLK, WMB, WSM, ZBRA, IYK, ITB, IGE, EWK, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWY, EWT, PBE, IXC, GLD, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,527.44    
 Weekly S2  25,042.83  515.39   
 Monthly S1  25,726.25  683.42   
 Weekly S1  25,983.94  257.69   
 Daily S2  26,534.40  550.46   
 Low  26,691.28  156.88   
 Open  26,691.28  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,729.73  38.45   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,825.82  96.09   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,867.38  41.56   
 Daily Pivot  26,886.60  19.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,908.94  22.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  26,925.05  16.11   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  27,043.48  118.43   
 Daily R1  27,081.93  38.45   
 Weekly Pivot  27,084.88  2.96   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  27,238.80  153.92   
 Monthly Pivot  27,342.57  103.77   
 Weekly R1  28,025.99  683.42   
 Monthly R1  28,541.38  515.39   
 Weekly R2  29,126.93  585.55   
 Monthly R2  30,157.70  1,030.77   

Monday 11/2/20. 2020 Market Forecast October Update

My Prediction

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for November, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 October 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+35.5%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+26.6%),
3. Communication services (+15.0%),
5. Health care (+10.1%),
4. Materials (+8.5%),
6. Consumer staples (+2.6%),
8. Utilities (-0.4%),
7. Industrials (-3.4%),
9. Real estate (-11.8%),
10. Financials (-17.4%),
11. and dead last is energy (-50.4%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+75.7%),
1. Internet & direct marketing retail (+67.2%),
4. Software (+43.9%),
3. Air freight and logistics (41.7%)
6. Metals & mining (+41.4%),
7. Life sciences tools & Services (+36.0%),
5. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+32.9%),
8. Interactive media & Services (+32.0%),
10. Entertainment (+24.4%),
(New). Trading companies, distributors (17.5%)

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 650.19 points.
Tuesday: Down 222.19 points.
Wednesday: Down 943.24 points.
Thursday: Up 139.16 points.
Friday: Down 157.51 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1833.97 points or 6.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 636.69 points or 5.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 195.43 points or 5.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.4% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     45.5% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     9.6% down from the high of 12,074.06 on 09/02/2020.
     64.5% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     8.9% down from the high of 3,588.11 on 09/02/2020.
     49.2% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,933  26,217  26,428  26,713  26,924 
Weekly  24,902  25,702  26,944  27,744  28,986 
Monthly  24,386  25,444  27,201  28,259  30,017 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,199  3,234  3,270  3,305  3,341 
Weekly  3,108  3,189  3,315  3,396  3,523 
Monthly  3,035  3,153  3,351  3,469  3,667 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,647  10,780  10,955  11,087  11,262 
Weekly  10,370  10,641  11,093  11,364  11,816 
Monthly  10,090  10,501  11,233  11,644  12,376 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ALK, AA, DOX, AEO, AEP, AEL, AIG, ANIK, APA, AAPL, AXS, BMI, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CX, CNC, CNP, CVX, CIEN, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CLR, CCRN, DVN, DFS, EBAY, EOG, EZPW, FLIR, FMC, FDP, FRD, GME, HSC, HNI, HON, ILMN, INOV, TILE, ISRG, IVC, JBLU, LAMR, LEG, LNC, MANH, MDCA, ^IXIC, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, NUS, PTEN, PICO, PLXS, PFG, PRU, RGA, RHI, ROG, ROST, SEE, SWX, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TEVA, TKR, RIG, SLCA, VLO, VEEV, WLK, WMB, WSM, IYE, IEZ, FTEC, IGE, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLF, XLK, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Homebuilding
2. Shoe2. Air Transport
3. Homebuilding3. Shoe
4. Retail Building Supply4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Semiconductor5. Retail Building Supply
6. Cement and Aggregates6. Semiconductor
7. Precision Instrument7. Apparel
8. Retail (Special Lines)8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Chemical (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Biotechnology50. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
51. Electric Utility (West)51. Biotechnology
52. Advertising52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Aerospace/Defense
54. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Short ETFs56. Petroleum (Producing)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Petroleum (Integrated)59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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