As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast November Update

Released 10/30/2020.

Forecast Updated for November 2020

Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of October 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 4
chart pattern
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI is bearish, as denoted by the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart. It's been in place for six days, which usually means it won't change. Signals can change for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days.

The next chart looks at the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
chart pattern
Because of the steep drop in the Dow, the forecast looks flat (the large swing compressed the scale. See the entire forecast here, without compression).

As the chart shows, the Dow has dropped below the forecast. However, notice that the index is near the red line. It didn't look like it would recover in March, but it made a strong push upward and tagged the red line.

Going forward, I expect the Dow to recover and perhaps reach the 28,839 year end prediction.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
chart pattern
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The prediction shows the Nasdaq falling. The index has cooperated over the last three weeks by dropping, but will the decline continue?

I don't think so. I expect a recovery in the indices going into year end.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
chart pattern
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

If you believe the forecast, the index will end the year near where it began. As the chart shows, the index has tagged the red forecast. Maybe, just maybe, it'll follow the red line from here to end the year about flat.

The end.

See Also

 
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