Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20
As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20

 

December 2020 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 12/31/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 19.78 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 689 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 400 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 289 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 205/363 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/118 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

Price closes lower 60% of the time the day before New Years based on my research. It closes higher on Monday 53% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the bottom red trendline first and then saw the symmetrical triangle when I drew the top line. It was an afterthought. The triangle does show a narrowing of price movement over the last two days, like a coil twisting tighter and tighter, waiting to spring open.

Symmetricals breakout upward 60% of the time, but I don't know the influence of holiday trading on the percentage. Given that the numbers suggest a lower close, I would expect the index to pierce the lower trendline.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BIO, BKH, BRC, BBW, CE, CF, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CL, CONN, CLGX, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DDS, EBAY, EIX, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FAST, FFG, FEYE, FISV, FMC, GES, HSC, HL, HELE, HSIC, IBKR, KALU, LAWS, LEG, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MYGN, CNR, NJR, OGE, PDCO, PCG, PPL, PINC, RMBS, RCKY, SCHW, SAIC, SWX, SCS, RIG, UNM, V, WERN, WMB, IYM, IHE, FXI, IGE, EWK, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, EWU, DBA, XLV, XLK, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,457.43    
 Monthly S1  12,163.71  706.29   
 Weekly S2  12,429.01  265.30   
 Monthly Pivot  12,502.82  73.80   
 Weekly S1  12,649.51  146.69   
 Weekly Pivot  12,745.71  96.21   
 Daily S2  12,817.06  71.35   
 Daily S1  12,843.53  26.47   
 Low  12,857.76  14.23   
 Close  12,870.00  12.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,883.42  13.42   
 Daily Pivot  12,884.23  0.81   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,891.34  7.11   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,899.27  7.93   
 Open  12,906.51  7.24   
 Daily R1  12,910.70  4.19   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  12,924.93  14.23   
 Daily R2  12,951.40  26.47   
 Weekly R1  12,966.21  14.81   
 Weekly R2  13,062.41  96.21   
 Monthly R1  13,209.10  146.69   
 Monthly R2  13,548.21  339.10   

Wednesday 12/30/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Not only is there bearish divergence, where the indicator trends downward and the index trends upward, but we have a new bearish signal today.

That's shown on the chart with the vertical red line on the far right of the chart.

The signal surprises me. The Dow industrials dropped only 68 points today (Tuesday) and yet the general market seemed to get hammered, not by a lot, but some. And yet the indicator has turned bearish. The general market was already weak and today's drop just added to the pain. We know that's true because the indicator has been trending down for weeks now.

That's kind of scary (downward indicator trend), come to think of it...

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines didn't change value from a week ago. During the past week, though, the red line (the more sensitive of the two) moved up and then came back down. Both lines have been flat for most of the month.

I show the flat top of the red line and up-sloping bottom. It's an ascending triangle but being on an indicator, I'm not sure if it's important or not. Most ascending triangles (63%) in stocks breakout upward. So there's hope the index will move higher.

The CPI chart is bearish and this chart hints of a bullish breakout. Hmmm... I'm not sure what to make of it. Maybe after the holiday passes, things will make sense, but it may take until Jan 20 before things really settle down.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ADS, DOX, AEE, AFG, AAPL, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BAX, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BMY, BRKS, COG, CAL, CE, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CR, CSGS, CTS, CMI, CW, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EOG, EQT, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FORM, IT, GIS, GFF, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HNI, HD, IDA, IDXX, NSP, IBP, IBKR, NVTA, KFRC, LB, LAMR, LEG, LNC, L, M, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRX, MSFT, MLI, MYGN, NCR, NJR, NEE, NWPX, OGE, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PLXS, PINC, PFG, DGX, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SWN, SUM, TECH, TEVA, TKR, TOL, TRV, VFC, VRSN, V, VMC, WMB, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, DDM, QTEC, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, TUR, QLD, DBA, PEJ, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, SPY, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 12/29/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.7% or 204.1 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 684 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 378 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 306 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 218/378 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring York Water: YORW stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, AFG, AMWD, AON, APA, AAPL, ACGL, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BLL, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BMY, CAL, CE, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CHD, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CLGX, COST, COTY, CR, CREE, CMI, ^DJI, D, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EMN, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, RE, EXC, XOM, FAST, FMC, GME, IT, GPN, GFF, HBI, HSC, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, INOV, IBP, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JAZZ, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEN, LOW, MHO, MANH, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MLHR, MUR, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NEU, OXY, ORI, PANW, PYPL, POR, PPG, PG, QCOM, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SMG, SEE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SXI, SSYS, TECH, TEVA, TXT, TKR, RIG, VLO, VRTX, VMC, WU, WEX, WMB, WDAY, IYM, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHE, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IYZ, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,016.02    
 Weekly S2  29,605.94  589.91   
 Monthly S1  29,710.00  104.06   
 Weekly S1  30,004.95  294.96   
 Monthly Pivot  30,026.79  21.84   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  30,154.55  127.75   
 Daily S2  30,161.88  7.34   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  30,282.93  121.04   
 Low  30,283.20  0.27   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  30,283.23  0.03   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,375.78  92.55   
 Close  30,403.97  28.19   
 Daily Pivot  30,404.24  0.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,404.38  0.14   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,432.98  28.60   
 Daily R1  30,525.29  92.31   
 High  30,525.56  0.27   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  30,553.56  28.00   
 Daily R2  30,646.60  93.04   
 Weekly R2  30,703.16  56.55   
 Monthly R1  30,720.77  17.61   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  31,037.56  316.80   

Monday 12/28/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a busy pic on the daily scale. I probably went through the patterns the last time around, but let's go through them again.

Starting from the left, we have a diamond top. It looks like a diamond although it's not perfect.

Following that is a broadening bottom pattern which turns the index upward in late September.

After that is a broadening top pattern which is the same as a bottom except price trends upward into the pattern.

Next comes the new pattern, a falling wedge. I extended the bottom line to show how the index is following it, finding support.

Notice that the wedge broke out upward but soon fumbled and returned to the bottom trendline.

If you look from the right of the chart, where the index ends, horizontally across the chart, you'll see that the index is resting on the July and August peaks. It's finding support there, suggesting the index will turn upward soon. However, since we're dealing with an average of stocks, who knows what the herd will do.

Top

A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 37.4 points.
Tuesday: Down 200.94 points.
Wednesday: Up 114.32 points.
Thursday: Up 70.04 points.
Friday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 20.82 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 49.09 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 6.35 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 30,343.59 on 12/18/2020.
     65.8% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 12,841.92 on 12/23/2020.
     93.1% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 3,726.70 on 12/18/2020.
     68.9% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,059  30,130  30,170  30,240  30,280 
Weekly  29,538  29,869  30,087  30,417  30,635 
Monthly  28,948  29,574  29,959  30,585  30,970 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,684  3,694  3,699  3,708  3,713 
Weekly  3,609  3,656  3,684  3,731  3,758 
Monthly  3,487  3,595  3,661  3,769  3,835 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,736  12,770  12,802  12,836  12,868 
Weekly  12,407  12,606  12,724  12,923  13,041 
Monthly  11,436  12,120  12,481  13,166  13,526 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 16 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APA, CMTL, BOOM, XOM, GME, HSIC, HOV, HURC, NVTA, MTRX, MUR, MYGN, NBR, OXY, RES, RIG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Air Transport
2. Air Transport2. Apparel
3. Shoe3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Shoe
5. Metal Fabricating5. Semiconductor
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Metal Fabricating
7. Homebuilding7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Semiconductor8. Telecom. Equipment
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Electronics
10. Telecom. Equipment10. Human Resources
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Information Services50. Food Processing
51. Petroleum (Producing)51. Biotechnology
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Biotechnology55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Sent by my nephew.

Friday 12/25/20. Market Holiday

I released two new patterns called the V pivot and inverted V pivot. They are based on the findings of Vicky Wong.

They are three-bar patterns with the middle bar extending beyond the adjacent price bars by at least 2%.

I tested them on weekly scale, but they can appear on any time period. It you happen to run across one of them, tell them I said hello.

Here's a joke to lighten the mood. "I don't care what star you're following. Get those camels off my lawn!"

Have a safe and happy holiday everyone. Next year will be better.

My nephew sent me the T-shirt a few years back...Way cool. Pictured on the right. Thanks, Nick!

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Thursday 12/24/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -36.81 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 522 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 285 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 237 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 204/362 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/118 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but I only show the last 5 days.

The thick red lines form a pattern called an ascending triangle. Those have flat tops and up-sloping bottoms, like that shown here. Price should touch the two trendlines at least 5 times, total (3 of one trendline and 2 of the other).

Ascending triangles breakout upward 63% of the time. This one broke out downward and price dropped with gusto near the end of the session.

If this were an individual stock, I'd expect a pullback to the breakout price and then a resumption of the downward move. But we're dealing with a collection of stocks.

Apparently, many stocks in the composite stampeded for the exits. We'll have to wait another day to see if this trend persists. My guess is that tech stocks will be under pressure at the opening bell. Maybe they'll recover after that.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AYI, ADBE, AFL, AKAM, ADS, AXP, AIG, AON, APA, AAPL, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BZH, BBY, CACI, CNP, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CMCO, CMTL, CLGX, CREE, CTS, DVN, DUK, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FDX, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FLIR, GME, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HON, HOV, HURC, INFN, IBP, NVTA, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, LAMR, LAWS, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MCO, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NJR, NEE, OXY, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RCKY, RES, SEE, SMTC, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TMO, TOL, TSCO, RIG, VMI, WMT, WDAY, ITB, IHI, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, IYF, EWO, EEM, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWT, TUR, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,398.61    
 Monthly S1  12,084.86  686.25   
 Weekly S2  12,294.25  209.39   
 Monthly Pivot  12,447.23  152.98   
 Weekly S1  12,532.68  85.45   
 Weekly Pivot  12,671.14  138.46   
 Daily S2  12,707.32  36.18   
 Daily S1  12,739.21  31.90   
 Low  12,758.67  19.46   
 Close  12,771.11  12.44   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,790.47  19.36   
 Daily Pivot  12,790.57  0.09   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,800.29  9.73   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,810.12  9.82   
 Daily R1  12,822.46  12.35   
 Open  12,834.94  12.48   
 High  12,841.92  6.98   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  12,873.82  31.90   
 Weekly R1  12,909.57  35.75   
 Weekly R2  13,048.03  138.46   
 Monthly R1  13,133.48  85.45   
 Monthly R2  13,495.85  362.37   

Wednesday 12/23/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

According to the chart, a bearish signal appeared 3 day ago. My recollection is it happened yesterday. Recall that signals can appear or disappear for up to a week. It's like driving down the road, passing your exit, and then hearing from the GPS that you should have turned back there. No kidding.

Still, a bearish signal is a bearish signal. It's usually solid after 3 days, so maybe this is a valid bearish turn. If tomorrow were to see the market skyrocket, the bearish signal would disappear. So keep that in mind.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

This week, the signals are worse than what they were a week ago, so this chart is bearish, too.

Look at the thick red line from June to September. The retrace from the top of the pattern to the end is more than halfway. If the thick blue line retraces a similar amount, it will mean a good drop in the index. In other words, the markets could show extended weakness in the coming days.

I guess I'm in a bullish mood, but I don't think we're going to retrace much. I'm looking for new highs and buying accordingly.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AEE, AIG, ANIK, APA, AAPL, ARW, BBY, BIG, BBW, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CLNE, CLX, CL, CMTL, CLGX, CW, D, BOOM, EMN, EOG, RE, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FDP, GME, GD, HBI, HSC, HE, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IBP, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MTRX, MDCA, MLHR, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NTAP, OXY, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PDLI, PETS, PNW, PRU, REV, RCKY, RES, SLB, SRE, NOW, TGT, TPX, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VFC, VEEV, WMT, WU, WSM, WDAY, IAI, FTEC, FXL, FXI, IAT, IYZ, IYF, EWH, EWM, EWT, DBA, PBE, XLF, XRT, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/22/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.1% or 37.4 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1365 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 702 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 663 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 218/377 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Medimmune: MEDI stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AKAM, ADS, ALL, AYX, ABC, AMGN, ACGL, ARW, BLL, BECN, BZH, BMRN, COG, CPB, CX, CNC, CNP, CRL, CHS, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CONN, GLW, CRH, CCK, CW, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EIX, EIGI, EOG, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FFG, FDX, FOE, FE, FLS, FCX, FDP, GPS, GD, GPN, GS, GGG, EVRG, GFF, THG, HSC, HE, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HUBG, IDA, NSP, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IVC, JBLU, KALU, K, KLIC, LEG, MLM, MAS, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, MS, MLI, MYGN, NOV, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NKE, NI, OXY, ORI, OMC, OTEX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPL, PFG, KWR, QCOM, REV, RHI, RCKY, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, TSCO, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, VMI, WRB, WMB, WWW, WDAY, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PXJ, QQQ, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,814.26    
 Monthly S1  29,515.36  701.09   
 Daily S2  29,543.43  28.07   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S2  29,641.96  98.53   
 Low  29,755.53  113.57   
 Daily S1  29,879.94  124.41   
 Weekly S1  29,929.20  49.26   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  29,929.47  0.27   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,965.10  35.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,029.84  64.74   
 Daily Pivot  30,092.04  62.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,094.57  2.53   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  30,136.40  41.83   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  30,159.00  22.60   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  30,216.45  57.45   
 High  30,304.14  87.69   
 Weekly R1  30,423.64  119.50   
 Daily R1  30,428.55  4.91   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R1  30,630.57  202.02   
 Weekly R2  30,630.84  0.27   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Daily R2  30,640.65  9.81   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  31,044.68  404.03   

Monday 12/21/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At valleys AB is located a double bottom. It confirms as one when price closes above the horizontal red line pointed to by line C. At D, we see a throwback to the breakout price, which is a common occurrence among chart patterns. They happen about two-thirds of the time.

Since then, the index has moved up in a stair-step fashion, something that should delight Elliott wavers.

Notice how the move from B to the end of the chart starts out steep but rolls over as if it's having trouble moving higher. That's a sign of upward momentum weakening.

The index might move sideways for a time, recovering from the BC move.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 184.82 points.
Tuesday: Up 337.76 points.
Wednesday: Down 44.77 points.
Thursday: Up 148.83 points.
Friday: Down 124.32 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 132.68 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 377.77 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 45.95 points or 1.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 30,343.59 on 12/18/2020.
     65.7% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 12,809.60 on 12/18/2020.
     92.4% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 3,726.70 on 12/18/2020.
     69.2% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,870  30,024  30,184  30,339  30,498 
Weekly  29,629  29,904  30,124  30,399  30,618 
Monthly  28,802  29,490  29,917  30,606  31,032 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,666  3,688  3,707  3,729  3,748 
Weekly  3,613  3,661  3,694  3,742  3,775 
Monthly  3,477  3,593  3,660  3,776  3,843 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,585  12,670  12,740  12,825  12,895 
Weekly  12,289  12,522  12,666  12,899  13,043 
Monthly  11,393  12,075  12,442  13,123  13,491 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ADS, DOX, AEO, AMGN, APH, AON, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BRKS, BBW, COG, CALM, CE, CX, CHS, CLNE, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CONN, CLGX, GLW, COST, CRH, CCK, DDS, ^DJU, ^DJI, DRQ, EMN, EIX, EOG, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FLIR, FLS, FRD, GME, GNW, GILD, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, IDA, ITW, INOV, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LAWS, LEN, MAN, MLM, MAS, MDCA, MGEE, MCO, MS, MLI, NTGR, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NOC, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PAYX, PNW, PLXS, POR, PFG, QCOM, REV, SO, SWN, SR, SRDX, TJX, TSCO, UGI, VMI, WRB, WMT, WWW, WDAY, IAI, IYC, IDU, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYF, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EZA, TUR, QLD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLB, XLK, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Apparel2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Apparel
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor
6. Metal Fabricating6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Human Resources
8. Telecom. Equipment8. Metal Fabricating
9. Electronics9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Human Resources10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Food Processing50. Food Processing
51. Biotechnology51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Aerospace/Defense52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Biotechnology
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Petroleum (Integrated)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Natural Gas (Diversified)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/18/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADS, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, AWI, AIZ, BZH, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, EPAY, BBW, COG, CDNS, CALM, CHKP, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLGX, CRH, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, RE, XOM, FB, FDS, FFG, FIVN, FLEX, GD, GILD, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HD, IDA, ILMN, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JBLU, LEN, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MANH, MLM, MAS, MUR, ^IXIC, NEU, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PYPL, PFE, PPG, PRU, QCOM, RMBS, REV, RNG, SCHW, SRE, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, TER, TKR, TSCO, TG, UNM, VMI, WERN, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYK, ITB, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, PPA, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, GLD, XRT, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANIKRectangle top      05/19/202012/15/2020Biotechnology
APOGScallop, ascending      10/21/202012/17/2020Building Materials
ADPTriangle, symmetrical      11/16/202012/15/2020IT Services
BMRNRectangle bottom      08/20/202012/11/2020Biotechnology
BRKSDiamond top      12/01/202012/17/2020Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CERectangle bottom      11/30/202012/17/2020Chemical (Basic)
CHKPTriangle, ascending      10/30/202012/17/2020E-Commerce
DRQFlag      12/10/202012/17/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EPAMTriangle, symmetrical      11/05/202012/16/2020IT Services
ELTriangle, symmetrical      11/30/202012/11/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
FASTRising wedge      11/09/202012/17/2020Retail Building Supply
FDPBroadening bottom      08/27/202012/14/2020Food Processing
IPARRising wedge      11/18/202012/17/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
IBKRScallop, ascending      11/17/202012/17/2020Securities Brokerage
KALUFlag      12/08/202012/17/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
MTRNBroadening top      11/16/202012/17/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
NUSRectangle bottom      11/13/202012/17/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
NVDARectangle top      11/10/202012/17/2020Semiconductor
PLXSRising wedge      11/09/202012/15/2020Electronics
POLChannel      11/09/202012/17/2020Chemical (Specialty)
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      11/13/202012/17/2020Chemical (Specialty)
SCSChannel      11/09/202012/17/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
TECHRectangle top      11/10/202012/17/2020Biotechnology
TZOOTriangle, ascending      11/24/202012/17/2020Internet
WDAYTriangle, symmetrical      09/21/202012/16/2020Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 12/17/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish

The index climbed by 0.5% or 63.13 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 567 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 384 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 183 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 67.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 203/361 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/118 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Yesterday's headline was bullish and today's is bearish. Go figure.

I drew a trendline along the recent bottoms, from Friday onward to today (Wednesday). At A, the index poked through the bottom trendline but recovered before day's end to return above the trendline.

However, by day's end, the index had again dropped below the bottom trendline (B).

I drew a parallel line along the recent peaks to form a channel.

To recap, the index fell out of the channel, pulled back, and fell out again. I think that's bearish, hence the new headline. Maybe it takes three tries to fall out of a channel and hurt yourself.

The chart pattern indicator, not shown, flipped around and headed lower. It's in the neutral zone as I recall, looking for Romulans.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AFL, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, ADS, AEO, AFG, AIG, ANIK, AAPL, ACGL, AWI, AVY, BLL, BECN, BIO, BMRN, BRC, BLDR, COG, CAL, CE, CLS, CENX, CHKP, CLNE, CLX, CTSH, ED, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, CRH, CW, DOV, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EBAY, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FORM, GPS, GD, GE, GILD, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HNI, HOLX, HURC, IDA, KALU, KMT, KLIC, LB, LH, LEN, RAMP, MTSI, M, MANH, MLM, MAS, MA, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, MUR, CNR, NTAP, NEU, OGE, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PDLI, PNW, POL, PPG, PPL, PFG, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, REV, ROG, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, WMT, WU, ITA, IHE, FDN, QTEC, IYH, SLV, EWG, EWM, EWL, PPA, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,047.45    
 Monthly S1  11,852.82  805.37   
 Weekly S2  12,100.96  248.14   
 Monthly Pivot  12,229.98  129.02   
 Weekly S1  12,379.57  149.59   
 Weekly Pivot  12,493.36  113.78   
 Daily S2  12,516.36  23.00   
 Low  12,566.38  50.02   
 Daily S1  12,587.27  20.89   
 Open  12,611.04  23.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,612.58  1.54   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,626.85  14.27   
 Daily Pivot  12,637.30  10.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,641.12  3.82   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  12,658.19  17.07   
 High  12,687.32  29.13   
 Daily R1  12,708.21  20.89   
 Daily R2  12,758.24  50.02   
 Weekly R1  12,771.97  13.74   
 Weekly R2  12,885.76  113.78   
 Monthly R1  13,035.35  149.59   
 Monthly R2  13,412.51  377.16   

Wednesday 12/16/20. Indicators Bullish!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish CPI signal that appeared as recently as yesterday has disappeared. The indicator can change its mind for up to a week. Now, it's bullish, going back to a bullish signal in early November.

The bearish divergence between price and the indicator (the two thick blue lines) has also disappeared when the index skyrocketed today. I drew two red lines thinking that's bullish divergence, but it's not. You draw bullish divergence below the two lines (that is, below the CPI and below the index), not above them. So ignore the two red lines even if they show the CPI is more bullish than the index.

So the indicator is bullish and doesn't show any signs of weakness.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The two lines, the red and blue ones, show no difference in performance from a week ago. I'd say they are in a holding pattern.

The CPI chart is bullish. This chart is neutral. I don't see any evidence of weakness, so I'm looking for the indices to continue higher. The trend is your friend until it ends.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, APD, ADS, AEL, AAPL, AMAT, ASH, AVY, BSET, BBBY, BRC, BMY, COG, CDNS, CNC, CLNE, CONN, CCK, DFS, EOG, RE, EXC, XOM, FORM, GD, GILD, EVRG, HSII, HURC, IDA, NSP, INTU, JBLU, K, LAMR, LEN, MANH, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDCA, MU, MYGN, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PATK, PRFT, PNW, POR, PPG, PEG, QCOM, REV, ROK, SMG, SHW, LUV, SWN, SR, SUM, TFX, UGI, VFC, WERN, WEX, QTEC, FXI, ICF, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XHB, SPY, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/15/20. Scam, Shingles and Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.6% or -184.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 676 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 349 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 327 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 217/376 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of my dog.

Two items that you may find of interest. First, I received 16 phone calls on Saturday from "Apple Computer" (supposedly) telling me that my account with them had been breached. Each time they called my land line, I blocked their phone number (I have a gizmo which does this). The phone call is a scam. You've probably heard about it. Don't be fooled. Don't call them.

Second, the shingles virus. "Shingles is an outbreak of rash or blisters on the skin. It is caused by the varicella-zoster virus - the same virus that causes chickenpox. After you have chickenpox, the virus stays in your body. It may not cause problems for many years. But as you get older, the virus may reappear as shingles. Anyone who has had chickenpox is at risk for getting shingles. But this risk goes up as you get older; shingles is most common in people over age 50." The pain from the rash has been described as being stabbed with a knife.

"There are vaccines to prevent shingles or lessen its effects. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that healthy adults 50 years and older get the Shingrix vaccine. You need two doses of the vaccine, given 2 to 6 months apart." Note: Zostavax is another vaccine (about 50% effective) which is no longer available in the US as of November 18, 2020. "Shingrix provides strong protection against shingles and PHN [Postherpetic neuralgia is pain that continues after a bout of shingles. This pain may last from months to years]. Two doses of Shingrix is more than 90% effective at preventing shingles and PHN. Protection stays above 85% for at least the first four years after you get vaccinated." In other words, you'll need another shot in 4 or 5 years.

"Healthy adults 50 years and older should get two doses of Shingrix, separated by 2 to 6 months. You should get Shingrix even if in the past you..."

There is no maximum age for getting Shingrix."

I had the Zostavax shot 3 years ago and got my Shingrix shot a few days ago. I'll go back for the 2nd dose in 3 months. It's not cheap. With a goodrx.com coupon, it's $155 per shot without insurance. I had insurance and got it for free.

If you want reliable medical information, go here: https://medlineplus.gov/ (where I found the above quoted information). Notice the .gov extension. "MedlinePlus is a service of the National Library of Medicine (NLM), the world's largest medical library, which is part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Our mission is to present high-quality, relevant health and wellness information that is trusted, easy to understand, and free of advertising, in both English and Spanish. Anywhere, anytime, on any device-for free."

Back to our regularly scheduled program...

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Lyondell Chemical: LYO (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 208 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AFL, APD, ATSG, DOX, AEL, AXP, ABC, APH, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AIZ, ATO, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BRC, BMY, BG, CBT, CACI, CALM, CPB, CE, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CINF, CNO, CL, ED, CLR, GLW, CRH, CCK, CMI, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DUK, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FIS, FEYE, FISV, FCX, FRD, GPS, GNW, EVRG, HBI, HE, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, ITW, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, LHX, LAWS, LLY, LNC, L, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MDCA, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NJR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NOC, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PDLI, PRFT, PNW, PPG, PPL, PFG, PRU, KWR, RL, RJF, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SO, SR, SXI, TGT, TFX, TMO, TJX, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, VMI, VMC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WLK, WEX, WMB, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FXL, FXI, ICF, IYH, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EIS, IBB, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, SSO, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,276.89    
 Monthly S1  29,069.22  792.33   
 Weekly S2  29,501.84  432.62   
 Daily S2  29,535.52  33.69   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  29,681.69  146.17   
 Monthly Pivot  29,694.46  12.77   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  29,698.54  4.08   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  29,849.15  150.61   
 Close  29,861.55  12.40   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  30,000.70  139.15   
 Daily Pivot  30,012.16  11.47   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,031.23  19.06   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,087.47  56.24   
 Open  30,123.91  36.44   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,143.71  19.80   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  30,175.18  31.46   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  30,180.55  5.38   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 High  30,325.79  145.24   
 Monthly R1  30,486.79  161.00   
 Daily R2  30,488.80  2.01   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  30,499.56  10.75   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R2  31,112.03  612.47   

Monday 12/14/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I drew the top red line so I could see the throwback at A and see how close it was to the line.

After the top line, I drew the bottom one (B). The line slopes upward and together with the top line, it forms an ascending triangle.

Notice that peak C doesn't touch the top trendline, but it comes close. Maybe not as close as I like to see, but I think it qualifies as a touch. I like to see three touches of one trendline and two of the other, at a minimum for correctly identified patterns.

Let's return to the throwback at A. Because the index hasn't touched the top line yet, there's still more room for the index to drop. That might not happen. It's close enough now to say it tried to reach the trendline. In fact, if the index rebounds from here, it might rise farther than if it does touch the trendline.

My guess is the index will drop far enough to close the distance from the top trendline and then rebound.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of my dog.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 148.47 points.
Tuesday: Up 104.09 points.
Wednesday: Down 105.07 points.
Thursday: Down 69.55 points.
Friday: Up 47.11 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 171.89 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 86.36 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 35.66 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 30,319.70 on 12/09/2020.
     65.0% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 12,607.14 on 12/09/2020.
     86.7% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 3,712.39 on 12/09/2020.
     67.1% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,729  29,888  29,979  30,138  30,230 
Weekly  29,563  29,805  30,062  30,304  30,561 
Monthly  28,338  29,192  29,756  30,610  31,174 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,622  3,643  3,654  3,675  3,687 
Weekly  3,591  3,627  3,670  3,706  3,749 
Monthly  3,429  3,546  3,629  3,747  3,830 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,199  12,289  12,336  12,425  12,473 
Weekly  12,008  12,193  12,400  12,585  12,792 
Monthly  10,954  11,666  12,137  12,848  13,319 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 72 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ALKS, AYX, ABC, ADP, BBBY, BKH, BRC, BBW, CALM, CNC, CNP, CL, GLW, ^DJI, D, DTE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FIS, FWRD, FRD, GILD, EVRG, GFF, HL, HSY, IDA, INFN, NSP, JNJ, LZB, MRO, MDCA, MGEE, NJR, NI, OLN, POR, RL, REV, RCKY, SCCO, SWN, SR, TGT, TPX, RIG, WAT, WU, IDU, ICF, SLV, EWM, EWL, TUR, PBE, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Apparel3. Semiconductor
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Semiconductor5. Apparel
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Human Resources7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Metal Fabricating8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Human Resources
10. Electronics10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Food Processing50. Aerospace/Defense
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Biotechnology53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Biotechnology
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Petroleum (Integrated)56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/11/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AA, ALKS, AEP, AMN, ANIK, APA, AVA, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BKH, BRC, BMY, CACI, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CLF, CTSH, CAG, COP, CCRN, DRQ, EOG, EFX, RE, XOM, FDS, FICO, FFG, FDX, FE, FORM, GPN, GL, HSC, HTLD, HL, HP, HSY, HOLX, HUBG, INFN, NSP, ITGR, TILE, JCOM, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LLY, L, LXU, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NEE, NUS, OGE, ORI, OUT, OXM, PANW, PCG, PINC, DGX, RNG, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SWX, SWN, SRDX, TGT, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VRTX, V, WAT, WERN, WLK, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FXL, ICF, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EEM, EWH, EPP, THD, PXJ, IXC, SSO, GLD, SPY, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 5.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESRectangle top      11/10/202012/10/2020Electric Utility (East)
AMZNTriangle, symmetrical      09/21/202012/10/2020Internet
BOOTChannel      11/09/202012/10/2020Shoe
CENXFlag, high and tight      11/02/202012/10/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CONNDead-cat bounce      12/08/202012/08/2020Retail (Special Lines)
CROXChannel      09/04/202012/10/2020Shoe
CCKTriangle, symmetrical      11/09/202012/10/2020Packaging and Container
^DJUFalling wedge      11/19/202012/08/2020None
EXPTriangle, ascending      11/09/202012/10/2020Cement and Aggregates
EXPDTriangle, symmetrical      11/03/202012/10/2020Air Transport
FEYEHead-and-shoulders top      11/09/202012/08/2020Computer Software and Svcs
FRDPennant      12/04/202012/10/2020Building Materials
GMEDead-cat bounce      12/09/202012/09/2020Retail (Special Lines)
HBIFlag      11/24/202012/10/2020Apparel
THGTriangle, symmetrical      11/24/202012/10/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HLTriangle, symmetrical      10/30/202012/10/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
INOVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/17/202012/07/2020Healthcare Information
NSPTriangle, descending      11/19/202012/10/2020Human Resources
IPIFlag, high and tight      11/05/202012/10/2020Chemical (Diversified)
LENTriangle, symmetrical      10/30/202012/10/2020Homebuilding
MHOTriangle, symmetrical      10/30/202012/10/2020Homebuilding
MROFlag, high and tight      10/29/202012/10/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
MDCTriangle, ascending      11/05/202012/10/2020Homebuilding
MDCATriangle, symmetrical      11/16/202012/10/2020Advertising
MSFTDiamond top      11/25/202012/04/2020Computer Software and Svcs
MURFlag, high and tight      11/06/202012/10/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
NOVFlag, high and tight      10/29/202012/10/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ORITriangle, ascending      11/10/202012/10/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PINCHorn top      11/23/202011/30/2020Healthcare Information
PHMTriangle, symmetrical      10/28/202012/10/2020Homebuilding
RGATriangle, symmetrical      11/09/202012/10/2020Insurance (Life)
SEERectangle top      11/20/202012/10/2020Packaging and Container
SEICRoof, inverted      11/09/202012/10/2020IT Services
WATRising wedge      10/27/202012/09/2020Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 12/10/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish

The index dropped by -1.9% or -243.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 59 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 26 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.0% on 33 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 203/361 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/117 or 48.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a trendline connecting valleys. It's not the way to draw a trendline to detect trend changes, but it suffices for what I'm looking for. I'm talking about line B, by the way.

The index at C began a pattern that's called a measured move down. Some Elliott wave surfers might think of this as an ABC correction or a corrective wave.

The thinking behind a measured move down, is that leg D (and onward down) will equal the CA move. Right now, price might follow the blue line down, after D, ending near the bottom of the chart, just below 12,100 (I drew it in a bit long).

Since we're on the intraday scale, the index might climb tomorrow. My guess is that the jobs numbers will be enough to rattle the markets and send it lower, at least for a time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALKS, ANIK, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, ADSK, ADP, BCPC, BLL, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BAH, BRC, BMY, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CIEN, CLX, CTSH, ED, CSOD, CROX, CCK, CMI, DVN, ^DJU, D, RE, FFIV, FDX, FE, FLEX, FORM, GME, GPS, GPN, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HE, HL, HELE, HSIC, HUBG, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, K, KSS, KLIC, LH, LAWS, LLY, LOW, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MGEE, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PYPL, PFE, PICO, DGX, RL, RMBS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, SAIA, SEE, NOW, SWX, SR, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TMO, TOL, TREX, VRSN, VRTX, V, WMT, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, ITA, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IGV, SLV, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EZA, IBB, PBE, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLE, GLD, XLB, SPY, XLU, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,233.59    
 Monthly S1  11,286.27  1,052.68   
 Weekly S2  11,839.71  553.44   
 Monthly Pivot  11,875.25  35.54   
 Weekly S1  12,089.33  214.08   
 Daily S2  12,095.93  6.60   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  12,217.44  121.51   
 Weekly Pivot  12,276.78  59.34   
 Low  12,290.78  14.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  12,338.95  48.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,411.63  72.68   
 Daily Pivot  12,412.29  0.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,448.96  36.67   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,486.29  37.33   
 Weekly R1  12,526.40  40.11   
 Daily R1  12,533.80  7.40   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  12,591.69  57.89   
 High  12,607.14  15.45   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2  12,713.85  106.71   
 Daily R2  12,728.65  14.80   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  12,927.93  199.28   
 Monthly R2  13,516.91  588.98   

Wednesday 12/9/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice that the CPI is trending lower. I show that downtrend at A.

Compare that slope to the one at B, on the index. They diverge. That divergence is bearish. The idea with divergence is that sooner or later, price will follow the indicator. Keep in mind that the two can diverge for months and it can be wrong, too.

Look at the two deep purple lines at C. They diverged and the index continued higher. Of course, divergence lasted into late August, and finally (lighter purple lines), the index dropped meaningfully in September.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement this week compared to last week.

There's no divergence on this chart, at least recently. I guess that's expected because these two lines just follow the indices's trend.

So this week we have a bearish chart and a bullish one. I'll let you decide which is correct. My vote goes to the CPI chart, but as I mentioned, you might not see a downturn for a while.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AEIS, ALL, DOX, ABC, AMN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AVY, BAX, BECN, BIO, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BMY, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CONN, CSOD, GLW, CR, CROX, CCRN, EMN, EMR, EFX, RE, XOM, FDS, FICO, FDX, FOE, FEYE, FIVN, FLIR, FTNT, FDP, GE, GS, GGG, THG, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HON, INFN, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LAWS, LDOS, L, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MDT, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NEU, NEE, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, PKE, PFE, POL, POR, PGR, QCOM, RL, RJF, ROK, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SCCO, SRDX, TGT, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TRV, TG, VC, WAT, WU, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IHF, IYZ, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, THD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/8/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Lam Research

The index dropped by -0.5% or -148.47 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 771 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 388 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 383 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 216/375 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Lam Research: LRCX (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AES, AFL, ATSG, ABC, AMN, APH, AON, ATR, AGO, AVA, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BG, CBT, CX, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, ED, CONN, CLR, CCRN, DHR, EXP, RE, FDS, FWRD, FDP, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HLIT, HTLD, HSY, INCY, INFN, IIIN, KBAL, LMT, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MRK, MOS, MYGN, NBR, NEU, NWPX, OXY, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PICO, PGR, RGS, RGA, SSYS, TPR, VRTX, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEO, FXL, FXI, ECH, EIS, THD, PXJ, PJP, IXC, IXN, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,736.12    
 Monthly S1  27,402.95  2,666.84   
 Monthly Pivot  28,810.61  1,407.65   
 Weekly S2  29,162.61  352.00   
 Weekly S1  29,616.20  453.59   
 Daily S2  29,824.20  208.00   
 Weekly Pivot  29,917.23  93.03   
 Daily S1  29,947.00  29.77   
 Low  29,967.22  20.22   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,068.76  101.54   
 Close  30,069.79  1.03   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  30,090.01  20.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,100.13  10.11   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,131.49  31.37   
 Daily R1  30,212.81  81.32   
 Open  30,233.03  20.22   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  30,233.03  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  30,355.82  122.79   
 Weekly R1  30,370.82  15.00   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  30,671.85  301.03   
 Monthly R1  31,477.44  805.59   
 Monthly R2  32,885.10  1,407.65   

Monday 12/7/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I had in mind to show you the Nasdaq composite but pulled up this chart instead. I haven't lost my mind. I know exactly where I left it.

Let's go through the chart, starting from the left. Smiley

The twin bottom at E is a double bottom. It has two valleys which bottom near the same price. It confirms as a valid double bottom when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Peaks DC are a double top. The twin peaks top out near the same price and it is supposed to confirm as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below valley A. I drew a horizontal brown line but it's hard to tell if price closed below the line or not.

AB is another double bottom. The two bottoms are not at the same price, so that's a flaw. It confirms as a valid pattern when price closes above the blue line.

More recently are the two up-sloping red lines highlighting a rising wedge. Rising wedges breakout downward 60% of the time. That's not much above random.

This wedge has price touching the trendlines plenty of times, but it also looks loose, not tight. That means there's not a lot of overlap between the price bars. I did a study of overlap and showed that flags (I think) with lots of overlap outperformed.

This one looks like it might breakout upward.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 271.73 points.
Tuesday: Up 185.28 points.
Wednesday: Up 59.87 points.
Thursday: Up 85.73 points.
Friday: Up 248.74 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 307.89 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 258.38 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 60.77 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 30,218.26 on 12/04/2020.
     65.9% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 12,464.23 on 12/04/2020.
     88.0% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 3,699.20 on 12/04/2020.
     68.8% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,913  30,066  30,142  30,294  30,371 
Weekly  29,212  29,715  29,967  30,470  30,721 
Monthly  24,786  27,502  28,860  31,576  32,935 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,661  3,680  3,690  3,709  3,718 
Weekly  3,559  3,629  3,664  3,734  3,769 
Monthly  3,079  3,389  3,544  3,854  4,009 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,347  12,406  12,435  12,493  12,523 
Weekly  11,881  12,173  12,319  12,610  12,756 
Monthly  10,275  11,370  11,917  13,011  13,559 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, AMN, APH, ANTM, APA, ATR, ACGL, ARW, ASH, ATO, AXS, BIG, BKH, BRC, CBT, COG, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, ED, CONN, CLR, GLW, COST, CRH, CTS, DVN, DOV, EOG, EL, RE, EXC, XOM, FDS, FCX, THG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, KALU, KMT, LANC, LNC, L, LXU, MRO, MAS, MRK, MUR, NBR, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NEU, NEE, OXY, ORI, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PFE, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, RJF, RGS, RGA, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SEIC, SO, SCCO, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TKR, TG, SLCA, UPS, UNM, V, WAT, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FTEC, BOTZ, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EEM, EWH, EWI, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, PXJ, IEV, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Air Transport1. Air Transport
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor3. Apparel
4. Shoe4. Semiconductor
5. Apparel5. Shoe
6. Telecom. Equipment6. Retail (Special Lines)
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Retail (Special Lines)8. Homebuilding
9. Human Resources9. Metal Fabricating
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Aerospace/Defense50. Aerospace/Defense
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Biotechnology54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Biotechnology
58. Petroleum (Integrated)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/4/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 141 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AES, ALRM, ALK, ALB, ALKS, ADS, DOX, AEO, APH, AMAT, AIZ, BBBY, BIIB, BKH, BA, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CE, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, COTY, CMI, DECK, DVN, D, DOV, EXP, RE, EVH, FDS, FOE, FIS, FEYE, FCX, FDP, FRD, GNW, GES, HBI, THG, HLIT, HE, HQY, HTLD, HL, HD, INTU, IVC, JKHY, LH, LAWS, LEN, LLY, LXU, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MU, MCO, MUR, NTGR, NWPX, PKG, PKE, PATK, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PG, RL, RGA, REV, SAIA, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SXI, TPR, TEVA, TOL, UGI, UPS, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWW, XLNX, FXL, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, ILF, XLF, XRT, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADBETriangle, symmetrical      10/13/202012/02/2020Computer Software and Svcs
AESRectangle top      11/10/202012/03/2020Electric Utility (East)
ADSFlag, high and tight      10/28/202012/03/2020Information Services
ALLFlag      11/25/202012/03/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADMTriangle, symmetrical      10/23/202012/02/2020Food Processing
BKNGTriangle, ascending      11/09/202012/03/2020Internet
CENXRounding bottom      09/14/202011/30/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CMCOTriangle, ascending      11/09/202012/02/2020Machinery
DTEHead-and-shoulders top      11/10/202011/27/2020Electric Utility (Central)
FBTriangle, symmetrical      08/26/202012/03/2020E-Commerce
FRDRounding bottom      09/02/202012/02/2020Building Materials
GDTriangle, ascending      11/12/202012/03/2020Aerospace/Defense
HTLDTriangle, descending      09/22/202012/03/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HONTriangle, ascending      11/09/202012/03/2020Aerospace/Defense
ITGRRising wedge      11/10/202012/01/2020Electronics
KSSFlag, high and tight      10/01/202012/03/2020Retail Store
LHTriangle, descending      11/11/202012/03/2020Medical Services
LXUFlag, high and tight      10/06/202012/03/2020Building Materials
MTSIScallop, ascending      11/09/202012/03/2020Semiconductor
MCHXCup with handle      10/09/202012/02/2020Advertising
MRTNPipe top      11/16/202011/23/2020Trucking/Transp. Leasing
PKGTriangle, symmetrical      11/17/202012/03/2020Packaging and Container
PFEPipe bottom      11/16/202011/23/2020Drug
PCGPennant      11/23/202012/03/2020Electric Utility (West)
PINCHorn top      11/23/202011/30/2020Healthcare Information
RGSFlag, high and tight      11/02/202012/03/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
REVFlag, high and tight      11/02/202012/03/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
TEVAHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      08/25/202012/02/2020Drug

 

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Thursday 12/3/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -5.74 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 678 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 384 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 202/360 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/117 or 48.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew three trendlines, shown here in red, A, B, and C. Notice that they are getting steeper and shorter.

They remind me of fan lines. I looked into them once but they didn't make a lot of sense to me, so I didn't pursue them. (Fan lines are not covered on my website... I checked). You might say I'm not a fan of fan lines. Smiley To me, fan lines make as much sense as taking the width, not the height, of a rectangle and projecting it upward from the top of the pattern and claiming that's the price target. Anyway, I digress.

The blue line forms a small ascending triangle, with a flat top and up-sloping bottom. Ascending triangles breakout upward 63% of the time. That's almost 2 of every 3 trades.

Of course, that statistics comes from patterns on the daily charts. With intraday data like you see here, the opening bell can throw the index around a lot, so there's no telling what will happen.

Today was a weak day which saw the CPI (Chart Pattern Indicator) drop. The entire market looked weak to me, so I'd be cautious about expecting that upward breakout.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AFL, DOX, AXP, AIG, ANTM, ARW, BCPC, BSET, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CPB, CLS, CNP, CENX, CRL, CVX, CHS, ED, CSOD, GLW, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, EXP, RE, EXC, XOM, FAST, FIS, FE, FRD, GE, GL, HE, HTLD, HP, HON, HUBG, INCY, JKHY, LH, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MHO, MCO, NOV, NTAP, NVDA, OGE, ORI, PATK, PDCO, PFE, PICO, POR, PG, PRU, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, ROK, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SLGN, LUV, SSYS, TECH, TEVA, TG, SLCA, VLO, VRTX, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYE, FXI, IHF, IGV, IGE, IYF, EWC, EWY, EWP, EWT, PPA, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,389.06    
 Monthly S1  11,369.22  980.15   
 Weekly S2  11,687.68  318.46   
 Monthly Pivot  11,802.72  115.05   
 Weekly S1  12,018.52  215.80   
 Weekly Pivot  12,127.38  108.85   
 Daily S2  12,166.22  38.84   
 Low  12,217.35  51.13   
 Daily S1  12,257.79  40.44   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,271.87  14.07   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  12,285.75  13.88   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,288.71  2.96   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,305.54  16.84   
 Daily Pivot  12,308.93  3.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  12,349.37  40.44   
 High  12,360.06  10.69   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  12,400.50  40.44   
 Daily R2  12,451.64  51.13   
 Weekly R1  12,458.22  6.59   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  12,567.08  108.85   
 Monthly R1  12,782.88  215.80   
 Monthly R2  13,216.38  433.51   

Wednesday 12/2/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the index didn't fall and issue a bearish signal. Rather, the index climbed and took the general market with it. The CPI responded by soaring, as the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart shows.

The index broke out upward from an ascending triangle (shown here in what looks to be black but is really blue). The breakout wasn't a robust one where price shoots off. Rather, it looked like a doji candle.

That means the index closed near where it opened. It could mean underlying softness in the market, but not by the number of industries moving up today. I'm starting to rethink my position that covid news over the next 2 weeks will suck the markets lower. Guess I'll have to wait to find out for sure.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 471 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The two lines, the red and blue ones, made no net progress as measured from a week ago. I wonder if that's another signal that there's underlying weakness in the markets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 179 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, ALRM, AA, AEE, AIG, AMGN, AON, APA, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, AGO, AXS, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CALM, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, COTY, CRH, CCK, CTS, DECK, DVN, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EIX, WIRE, EOG, RE, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FRD, GIS, GL, GFF, THG, HSC, HIG, HSII, HELE, HNI, DHI, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, KALU, KSS, LRCX, LAWS, L, LOW, LXU, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MCO, MUR, NOV, NCR, NJR, ORI, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PETS, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PGR, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, SCHW, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, TER, TXN, TKR, TOL, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, VMC, WRB, WLK, WWW, IYM, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/1/20. 2020 Forecast Update for December

The index dropped by -0.9% or -271.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 430 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 207 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 51.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 216/375 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/84 or 48.8% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for December, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 November 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Information technology (+33.7%),
2. Consumer discretionary (+29.8%),
3. Communication services (+19.5%),
5. Materials (+16.5%),
7. Industrials (+8.9%),
4. Health care (+7.1%),
6. Consumer staples (+6.2%),
6. Utilities (-1.8%),
9. Real estate (-5.3%),
10. Financials (-7.8%),
11. and dead last is energy (-36.5%).

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Internet & direct marketing retail (+64.6%),
1. Technology hardware, storage & Peripherals (+53.2%),
5. Metals & mining (+38.3%),
4. Air freight and logistics (51.3%)
7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+35.9%),
3. Software (+38.7%),
10. Trading companies, distributors (30.6%)
(new). Construction & Engineering (+35.3%),
6. Life sciences tools & Services (+25.8%),
(new). Multi-line retail (+25.7%),

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Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AKAM, ALKS, AEE, AEL, AMWD, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BIG, BKH, BAH, CNC, CNP, CSCO, CMTL, ED, COP, GLW, COST, CRH, CROX, DVN, DDS, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EIGI, EQT, RE, EXC, FEYE, FRD, GME, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, DHI, HURC, ITW, INTC, IPI, JAZZ, KMB, LEG, LNC, LMT, LOW, MRO, MTRX, NJR, OXY, OGE, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PFE, PNW, PPL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SMTC, SKX, SO, SWN, TPR, TDOC, TMO, TJX, TOL, VFC, WRB, WMT, ITA, IAI, IYE, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWL, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XLF, XRT, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,660.23    
 Monthly S1  27,149.44  2,489.21   
 Monthly Pivot  28,632.97  1,483.54   
 Weekly S2  28,912.30  279.33   
 Daily S2  29,261.39  349.09   
 Weekly S1  29,275.47  14.08   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  29,450.02  174.54   
 Low  29,463.64  13.63   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,612.95  149.31   
 Close  29,638.64  25.69   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  29,652.26  13.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,659.07  6.81   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  29,695.99  36.92   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,705.20  9.21   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  29,840.89  135.69   
 Open  29,854.51  13.62   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  29,854.51  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  30,043.13  188.62   
 Weekly R1  30,059.16  16.03   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  30,479.68  420.52   
 Monthly R1  31,122.18  642.50   
 Monthly R2  32,605.71  1,483.54   

 

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