Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/05/2021
  Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%  
  Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%  
  Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%  
YTD
 +2.9%  
 +9.0%  
-5.9%  
 +0.2%  
 +2.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021  
  Up arrow32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow850 or 770 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/5/21
As of 03/05/2021
  Indus: 31,496 +572.16 +1.9%  
  Trans: 13,628 +408.32 +3.1%  
  Utils: 814 +13.86 +1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 12,920 +196.68 +1.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,842 +73.47 +1.9%  
YTD
 +2.9%  
 +9.0%  
-5.9%  
 +0.2%  
 +2.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/26/2021  
  Up arrow32,750 or 30,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,500 or 12,900 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow850 or 770 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow14,200 or 12,700 by 03/15/2021
  Up arrow4,000 or 3,700 by 03/15/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/5/21

 

February 2021 Headlines

Archives


Friday 2/26/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALK, ALB, DOX, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, APOG, ARCB, ADM, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, EPAY, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CNC, CNP, CRL, CIEN, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COTY, CCRN, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, RE, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FLIR, GME, GILD, GFF, HBI, THG, HIG, HELE, HSIC, HNI, INOV, NSP, IPG, ISRG, KBAL, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, L, LXU, MHO, MANH, MAN, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, NBR, NOC, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, POR, PFG, PGR, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TXN, TRV, TZOO, TREX, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WMB, XLNX, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 35 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 6.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 17 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Semiconductor
AFLScallop, ascending      01/19/202102/25/2021Insurance (Diversified)
ALRMPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Computer Software and Svcs
AWIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/29/202102/22/2021Building Materials
AVAHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/21/202102/19/2021Electric Utility (West)
CINFScallop, ascending      01/15/202102/25/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLNEDead-cat bounce      02/23/202102/23/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
CGNXPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Precision Instrument
DTETriangle, symmetrical      01/12/202102/22/2021Electric Utility (Central)
EPAMPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021IT Services
FFIVPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Internet
IBPDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/12/202102/22/2021Retail Building Supply
LEGRectangle top      08/10/202002/25/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
LXUFlag, high and tight      12/29/202002/25/2021Building Materials
MANHPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021IT Services
MROFlag, high and tight      12/21/202002/25/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
MRKDiamond bottom      02/11/202102/25/2021Drug
MYGNBroadening top      02/04/202102/25/2021Biotechnology
NBRFlag, high and tight      12/29/202002/25/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NKEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/08/202102/19/2021Shoe
PTENTriangle, symmetrical      01/14/202102/19/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PYPLPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Financial Services
PLXSBroadening wedge, ascending      02/03/202102/24/2021Electronics
PORRectangle bottom      11/27/202002/25/2021Electric Utility (West)
PRUScallop, ascending      01/19/202102/25/2021Insurance (Life)
RNGPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Computer Software and Svcs
RHIScallop, ascending      11/24/202002/25/2021Human Resources
ROKTriangle, descending      01/27/202102/25/2021Diversified Co.
RESFlag, high and tight      12/29/202002/25/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SRScallop, ascending      01/04/202102/25/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
SSYSDead-cat bounce      02/23/202102/23/2021Electronics
SNPSPipe top      02/16/202102/16/2021Computer Software and Svcs
TREXPipe top      02/08/202102/16/2021Building Materials
VUgly double bottom      01/29/202102/22/2021Financial Services
WWWBroadening top      12/11/202002/25/2021Shoe

 

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Thursday 2/25/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 132.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 241 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 154 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 87 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/369 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index started to move up following a channel (2 parallel red lines). This channel is based on just 4 trendline touches, so it's not robust (5 touches is better). Still we can see that point A has failed to reach the top trendline...so far.

The index is moving parallel to the channel trend. I'm not sure what this means. I thought that the failure of price to rise to the top channel line was bearish. Now I'm not so sure because of the channel-following upward trend.

Make of it what you will...

$ $ $

Day 12 without water

On the home front and my water pipe burst dilemma, I found the correct plumbing fixtures at Home Depot. On the pipe burst, I cut the existing pipe out using a pipe cutter. The first time I tried, the cutter wasn't perpendicular to the pipe so it formed a spiral instead of cutting. When I did cut out the piece, the ends weren't square and had divots where the metal wasn't cut through before it broke off.

That took a lot of filing to make right and I won't know if it's okay until I pressurize it. The SharkBite coupling took a bit of work to put on but I think it's in place correctly.

After that, I started to remove 8 water shut-off valves to 4 sinks. These 8 valves have oval handles and they leak often, especially if you don't exercise them at least once a year. I got 7 valves done but the 8th is not cooperating. I've tried 3 times to unsolder the valve from the pipe. The plumber installed it too close to the wall, so I can't cut the pipe and I suspect the heat is being sucked away, into the wall, maybe to another coupling. (And I learned to heat the valve first and then grip it with pliers to twist it off. You don't want to heat it with your pliers gripping the valve and acting as a heat sink).

My plan is to replace all 8 valves and move onto two toilet valves before testing my system for leaks. The toilets should be easy.

I'll try again tomorrow and hope I don't start a fire. I put 2 lines back together with new 1/4 turn shut-off valves and will finish the 5 (hopefully 6) tomorrow. I ordered the two toilet valves, but they aren't due until the first week of March. And those are the ones that leak. Those are the ones I need to replace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AA, AYX, AEO, AEP, ANIK, ADM, ARW, ADSK, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BRKS, COG, CDNS, CAL, CENX, CF, CHD, CGNX, GLW, CROX, CW, EMN, EOG, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, GME, GPS, GL, GS, GFF, THG, HTLD, HP, HD, IEX, INOV, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, JAZZ, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LDOS, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, NBR, NCR, NFLX, NEU, NUS, ORI, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, PPL, PGR, RL, RGS, RNG, ROST, RES, SCCO, SCS, SNPS, TKR, TSCO, TRV, TG, TREX, VFC, VLO, VMC, WRB, XLNX, IYM, IDU, IAT, SLV, EWO, EIS, EWW, EWP, TUR, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PJP, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,348.92    
 Monthly S1  12,973.45  624.52   
 Daily S2  13,176.54  203.09   
 Low  13,286.59  110.05   
 Weekly S2  13,368.38  81.79   
 Daily S1  13,387.25  18.88   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Open  13,400.25  13.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,409.12  8.87   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,446.97  37.85   
 Weekly S1  13,483.17  36.20   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,484.83  1.65   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  13,497.31  12.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  13,574.28  76.98   
 Close  13,597.97  23.69   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 High  13,607.36  9.39   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  13,708.02  100.66   
 Daily R2  13,818.08  110.05   
 Weekly Pivot  13,829.15  11.07   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  13,943.94  114.80   
 Monthly R1  14,198.81  254.86   
 Weekly R2  14,289.92  91.11   
 Monthly R2  14,799.64  509.73   

Wednesday 2/24/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Price is coming down but in the last few days, the CPI has been inching upward. Hmm. I suppose what you see on the CPI chart is best described as a failure swing.

I'm thinking that a failure swing is a good (bullish) sign, but I don't like the rounded action of the index. It looks bearish. So we have divergence, but to a minor degree.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 18%.
The fewest was 16% on 02/23/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 11% on 02/08/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

This chart shows more pronounced divergence between the index and the red indicator line. The red line slopes upward and the index drops, as highlighted by the green line.

Yes, it's a colorful display.

It's bullish, though. The above stats, for the red line, are bullish, too (the blue line shows no change from a week ago).

The CPI chart and this chart are mildly bullish. If they are correct, then look for the index to rebound soon.

$ $ $

On the home front and my water line break, I had my neighbor refill my water bottles with tap water, so I can hold out longer. I also scored 8 shutoff valves from Lowes and ordered 2 toilet valves. The ones I have tend to leak. They are the cheap, oval shaped knobs you see under your sink or toilet. The 1/4 turn valves are much better. I'm going to spend most or tomorrow replacing the 8 valves and hope I don't burn down my house (I'll need a torch to remove the old stuff but the new valves just slip on). I replaced my toilet valve about 3 years ago with a similar model, and got it done without any leaks. This time I'll see how the SharkBite works.

The bad news is there's still no end in sight to getting my main water break fixed. Mark Theriault sent me a coupling that I hope will fix the problem but the Post Office is holding it for ransom somewhere. The 1-2 day delivery "non guarantee" and huge cost of them delivering it late is a joke. I sent a nasty gram to the post office. I'm hoping to return some $ to Mark for his generosity.

Let me also offer a shout-out to Ronda P. for her hand-holding and offer to help.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACN, AEIS, AMD, ALL, AYX, AEL, AXP, ANIK, ADM, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BLL, BIG, BIO, BRKS, CACI, CDNS, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, ED, CONN, COST, CTS, CMI, DTE, EXP, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FDP, FRD, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, INOV, ISRG, NVTA, KELYA, LHX, LZB, LDOS, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MA, MDT, NTGR, NEE, NXGN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PFE, POR, PEG, QCOM, RNG, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SLGN, SKX, SR, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TOL, RIG, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VRTX, WRB, WLK, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IHI, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWL, TUR, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, IXN, XLY, XLF, XLI, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/23/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Pogo Producing

The index climbed by 0.1% or 27.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1368 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 704 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 664 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 221/384 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Pogo Producing: PPP (actual trade).

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I released a new study of chart patterns which appear before price doubles. Tell your friends!

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Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, AYX, AMZN, AEO, AEP, AFG, AON, ATR, BAX, BERY, BKH, BRC, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CF, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CLR, CTS, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, EOG, EFX, XOM, FFIV, FAST, FE, FLEX, FLIR, GME, GIS, GOOGL, EVRG, HBI, THG, HQY, HL, HSY, IPG, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, LAWS, LMT, MANH, MCHX, MSFT, MLHR, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, CNR, NCR, NEE, NKE, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OTEX, OMI, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PICO, PNW, PPL, PFG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGS, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SR, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TFX, TMO, TJX, VRSN, VC, WSO, XLNX, IYM, IYK, IYE, IHI, IHE, IDU, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IGE, EWZ, EWW, THD, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLK, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,217.28    
 Monthly S1  30,369.48  1,152.21   
 Monthly Pivot  31,008.51  639.02   
 Daily S2  31,120.34  111.83   
 Weekly S2  31,122.64  2.30   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  31,286.57  163.93   
 Daily S1  31,321.01  34.44   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly S1  31,322.16  1.15   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  31,381.12  58.96   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,426.73  45.61   
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,470.03  43.29   
 Weekly Pivot  31,484.85  14.82   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  31,487.25  2.40   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,513.32  26.07   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  31,521.69  8.37   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  31,653.48  131.79   
 Weekly R1  31,684.37  30.89   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  31,687.92  3.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  31,847.06  159.13   
 Daily R2  31,854.16  7.10   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  32,160.71  306.56   
 Monthly R2  32,799.74  639.03   

Monday 2/22/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

In the lower left corner is a broadening pattern. In this chart, I can't tell whether it's a broadening top or bottom but an extended view of another chart says it's a bottom.

On the right is a descending scallop. Those breakout downward 78% of the time. That percentage is high enough to bet on.

A check of the chart shows the index already heading lower, confirming the anticipated breakout direction, but not guaranteeing it.

$ $ $

On the pipe burst problem in my kitchen, I woke at 4 AM and couldn't get back to sleep. I was worried about the diameter of my water pipe being 5/8" when the standard size is 1/2". I removed the insulation and measured it 3 different ways to confirm the outer diameter was 5/8".

A trip to Home Depot and talking with the plumbing guy said that it's the inner diameter which is 1/2 inch, so I had the standard size pipe. Yippee! Unfortunately, three plumbing companies bought up all of the SharkBite fixtures to fix my leak. A trip to Lowes showed the same empty shelf.

So I still have no water for another day. I'm hoping a visit to HD tomorrow morning scores a SharkBite solution. I also decided that I'll have to tear down one wall (sheet rock) and replace it as well as the other work I planned on water-logged sheet rock surrounding the kitchen.

I spent the rest of the day removing the kitchen cabinets (except for one) and trying to chill out. A check of my emails alerted me to the inner/outer diameter pipe problem from two people: Tom Herdman and Mark Theriault. Mark was kind enough to offer to send me a SharkBite. Thanks guys. You've made a stressful situation better with your advice.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a goose.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 64.35 points.
Wednesday: Up 90.27 points.
Thursday: Down 119.68 points.
Friday: Up 0.98 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 35.92 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 221.01 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 28.12 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 31,647.53 on 02/19/2021.
     5.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.1% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     10.6% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 3,950.43 on 02/16/2021.
     6.7% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,359  31,427  31,537  31,605  31,715 
Weekly  31,114  31,304  31,476  31,666  31,838 
Monthly  29,208  30,351  30,999  32,142  32,791 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,886  3,896  3,913  3,924  3,941 
Weekly  3,849  3,878  3,914  3,943  3,979 
Monthly  3,594  3,750  3,850  4,007  4,107 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,758  13,816  13,901  13,959  14,044 
Weekly  13,461  13,668  13,921  14,128  14,382 
Monthly  12,441  13,158  13,666  14,383  14,892 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, AEIS, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEL, AXP, APOG, AMAT, ATR, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BAH, CE, CNC, CHKP, CTXS, ED, CR, CSGS, DHR, D, EBAY, EL, RE, FDS, FDX, FIS, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GE, GIS, GOOGL, EVRG, GFF, HSC, HE, HQY, HL, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, NSP, IBP, IPG, JBLU, LAWS, LDOS, LMT, MCHX, MLM, MRK, MU, NWL, NKE, OTEX, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PEG, PHM, DGX, REV, ROK, ROG, SHW, STMP, SUM, TFX, TG, VC, WSO, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYZ, IYF, EWD, EWL, EWU, DBA, PEJ, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLB, XAR, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Securities Brokerage
5. Securities Brokerage5. Computers and Peripherals
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Electronics
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. Electronics8. Semiconductor
9. Petroleum (Producing)9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Semiconductor10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Information Services50. E-Commerce
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Information Services
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Food Processing53. Aerospace/Defense
54. E-Commerce54. Food Processing
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Electric Utility (Central)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/19/21. Brief Entry on Water Leak

Picture of the water pipe break.

I spent the mid portion of Thursday removing three kitchen cabinets to check for water damage (found none). Then searched for the water line leak. I punched a hole in the kitchen wall and figured out that a prior hole I made was where the water was coming from. I located the leak, which is shown. My plan is to fix the leak on Friday but I'm worried. The insulation says 5/8" and most water lines are 1/2". I hope Home Depot or Lowes have the repair pieces to fix it. I really don't want to get into the tight area with a blow-torch to sweat a reducing flange or some other remedy.

I'm too wound up to search my stocks for chart patterns, but the Patternz found patterns might suffice.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AFL, APH, AMAT, BCPC, BAH, CDNS, CNP, CF, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLX, EL, EXC, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, GPS, GIS, GGG, GFF, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, JBHT, INOV, IBKR, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, KMT, LB, LHX, LAWS, MTSI, M, MTRN, MLI, CNR, NJR, NXGN, NKE, NOC, OTEX, PPL, PG, PHM, REV, SCHW, SMTC, SLGN, SCS, SNPS, TXT, TZOO, VFC, WMT, WSO, WERN, XEL, BOTZ, IGE, EWK, EWZ, EWM, EWY, TUR, ROBO, MXI, GLD, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

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Thursday 2/18/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -82.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 320 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 144 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 176 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/369 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I'm not an Elliott wave follower so this might be all wrong. But it appears that the move for the last two days is an ABC correction. Price drops at A, retraces at B, and resumes the decline at C.

After the correction ends, look for a resumption of the motive wave, up in this case. Leg D might be the first of 5 segments leading price upward.

$ $ $

Picture of my kitchen.

Wednesday update: This images is part of a picture for my insurance claim so you can ignore the fine print. The two holes are in the circle. Looking into the hole, I saw the water pipes to the far left, off the picture. Maybe, if I'm lucky, the break will be easily accessible and an easy fix.

On the home front, I cut through the sheet rock in my kitchen to find my water pipe break. When I looked to the left, I saw the water pipes. I haven't found the break yet, but will cut more holes into the sheet rock in the kitchen so I can be directly below the water pipes. They are sheathed in insulation, so I'll have to rip it off and see if the problem is a broken pipe there or if it's in the floor above. If it's above, then I'll have to tunnel through cabinets and then the wall to find the break.

It doesn't appear that putting a hole in the garage is necessary because I found the pipes to the left of where I was looking this morning.

I watched a This Old House clip of a water break. It's not the ice which expands to break the pipe. Rather, is the expansion of the ice along the length of the pipe which increases pressure dramatically within the pipe, eventually causing it to fail. They showed a demonstration of how the pressure increases by a multiple.

The insurance company said it would be almost a week before an adjuster would call (not visit), so that means no water for toilet flushing or showering as well as drinking for another week.

Plumber? Forget it. Their answering machines are full of people needing help.

When I went out yesterday for water and food, I found a few tidbits of food but the shelves were clear of any bottled water. Then I had a eureka moment: I could take my empty water bottles to my neighbor to fill with tap water (I prefer tap water over bottled water, anyway).

Of course, with COVID-19, we'll have to work out something where he can refill my bottles for me with tap water.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AMWD, AAPL, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AGO, BCPC, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, BLDR, CPB, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLF, CAG, COP, CSOD, CSGS, CTS, D, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EFX, EL, XOM, FDS, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GNW, GL, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HSIC, HON, JBHT, IEX, ITW, NSP, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KMT, LZB, LH, LAWS, LLY, LNC, LOW, MANH, MRTN, MDCA, MLI, MUR, CNR, NTAP, NEU, NWPX, OMC, OTEX, PATK, PICO, PFG, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RLI, SIGI, SKX, SWN, STMP, TGT, TXT, TJX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, WMT, WSO, XLNX, IYC, IHE, DDM, FXI, IGE, EZA, IXC, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,515.43    
 Monthly S1  13,240.46  725.03   
 Monthly Pivot  13,674.79  434.33   
 Weekly S2  13,709.71  34.92   
 Daily S2  13,743.22  33.51   
 Low  13,804.26  61.04   
 Weekly S1  13,837.60  33.34   
 Daily S1  13,854.36  16.76   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,870.03  15.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,890.34  20.32   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,910.66  20.32   
 Open  13,911.65  0.99   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  13,915.39  3.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 Close  13,965.49  50.10   
 Weekly Pivot  13,973.36  7.87   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  13,976.43  3.07   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  14,026.53  50.10   
 Daily R2  14,087.56  61.04   
 Weekly R1  14,101.25  13.69   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  14,237.01  135.76   
 Monthly R1  14,399.82  162.81   
 Monthly R2  14,834.15  434.33   

Wednesday 2/17/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the percent down indicators

If you live in the U.S. and listen to the news, you may have heard about the winter storm with an arctic plunge down the middle of the country. I live in one of the states who haven't got their act together. As the news reports say, we have over 800 generating stations in the state and a number of them went down because of the cold (down below 0 degrees in some spots).

Because the electric provider couldn't provide electricity, they had rolling blackouts. My neighborhood was caught in one of them. I lost power for 31 hours during the coldest snap of the storm. That means the temperature dropped below freezing inside my house. The picture is from my thermometer in my home office. Circled is the minimum temperature it recorded (29.9 degrees).

I had on 9 layers of clothing and 5 pairs of socks. I spent most of the day reading a novel in front of the window where sun beamed through a thin layer of clouds.

I know how homeless people must feel in the winter (numb) and have some sympathy for the Apollo 13 astronauts felt after their oxygen tank exploded on the way to the moon.

Fortunately, I had a can of tuna fish and some lavish bread to make sandwiches. A run to the grocery store the next morning showed empty shelves but I did stock up on some lunch meat and V-8 (a substitute for water because the shelves were bare).

All of my faucet fixtures were frozen. There was ice in my toilet bowl and bathtub. I turned off the water and opened the faucets to drain the system and hoped I'd be okay.

This morning (Wednesday), I learned that the city lost water pressure and their water tanks ran dry. "That's why I can't get any water!" So I turned on the water and promptly flooded my kitchen. The water coming in sounded like someone turned the bathtub faucet full on, so it flooded the chase that circles the kitchen, raining water down in a U-shape onto the counters below.

Apparently, I have a water leak in the wall leading to the upstairs master bath. I broke through the sheet rock this morning in the kitchen and didn't see anything except water-logged insulation and debris. And water.

I'll go into the garage later (maybe tomorrow) and tunnel through the sheet rock there to follow the pipes. Maybe I'll get lucky and this will be the only break in the house and that I'll be able to get to it to fix it (or the plumbers will. Called one but their 'memory was full' so I couldn't leave a message. I did email them last night, so maybe I'm on the list).

So that's the situation.

As to the below pictures, I'll let you figure them out. I'm not in the mood. I have to hunt down a large supply of bottled water so I have something to drink.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

Above is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 18% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 19%.
The fewest was 18% on 02/16/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 11% on 02/08/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 203 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, AYI, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALL, AYX, AMWD, ABC, APA, AAPL, ADM, AWI, ADSK, BCPC, BIIB, BMRN, BMY, BLDR, CBT, COG, CPB, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CTXS, CTSH, CMCO, ED, CAG, COP, CLR, CLGX, CSOD, CR, CTS, DVN, DOV, DRQ, DUK, WIRE, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FAST, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FCX, FDP, GME, GIS, GS, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INOV, NSP, IBKR, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, K, KMT, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, LNC, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MRK, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NWL, OXY, OMC, OMI, PATK, PTEN, PINC, PFG, PGR, DGX, RGS, REV, RES, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, STMP, SSYS, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UPS, VLO, VRSN, V, VMC, WSO, WMB, WSM, XLNX, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XHB, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 2/15/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Between the two red lines is a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. Both trendlines slope upward, but the top line has a steeper slope than the bottom one so that the two lines diverge.

What is the most likely breakout direction? Answer: It's downward but just 52% of the time. I expected it to be higher. The direction is random, in other words.

I extended the top trendline to emphasize how close the index was to the line. It suggests there's more of an upward move to come.

However, this is one of the few patterns where a partial rise can occur.

A partial rise in an ascending broadening wedge is correct at predicting a downward breakout 60% of the time. A partial rise happens when price touches the bottom trendline and moves up but doesn't come that close to touching the top trendline before price heads back down.

If a partial rise were to occur in the index, it would have to be in the next few days (price needs to drop soon).

I guess we'll have to see what happens.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a toad from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 237.52 points.
Tuesday: Down 9.93 points.
Wednesday: Up 61.97 points.
Thursday: Down 7.1 points.
Friday: Up 27.7 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 310.16 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 239.17 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 48 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 31,543.82 on 02/11/2021.
     5.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 14,109.12 on 02/10/2021.
     12.4% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 3,937.30 on 02/12/2021.
     7.4% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,300  31,379  31,427  31,507  31,555 
Weekly  31,045  31,252  31,398  31,604  31,750 
Monthly  29,265  30,362  30,953  32,049  32,640 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,894  3,915  3,926  3,946  3,957 
Weekly  3,867  3,901  3,919  3,953  3,971 
Monthly  3,612  3,774  3,855  4,017  4,099 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,881  13,988  14,045  14,152  14,209 
Weekly  13,753  13,924  14,017  14,188  14,280 
Monthly  12,559  13,327  13,718  14,486  14,877 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 252 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AES, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALKS, AXP, AIG, AMWD, APH, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BIO, BA, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CX, CENX, CF, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COP, CLR, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, DOV, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HSC, HIG, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INFN, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, LB, LHX, LNC, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SHW, SCCO, SCS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TXT, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TRV, TG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, VC, VMC, WRB, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FDN, FXL, IYH, IAT, IGV, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWQ, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, PPA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Shoe
3. Shoe3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Securities Brokerage4. Securities Brokerage
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Electronics
6. Electronics6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Metal Fabricating
8. Semiconductor8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment10. Human Resources
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. E-Commerce50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Information Services51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Electric Utility (East)52. E-Commerce
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Information Services
54. Food Processing54. Food Processing
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. Natural Gas (Diversified)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 265 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, AES, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BECN, BBBY, BA, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, COG, CALM, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CVX, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CL, COP, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EMR, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GIS, GNW, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HIG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KLIC, LB, LHX, LRCX, LNC, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MYGN, NFLX, NXGN, NUS, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PRU, PEG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, SHW, SLGN, SWX, SWN, SCS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, VFC, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WERN, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXL, FXI, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWW, EWY, PPA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 1.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 59 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 66 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACNPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021IT Services
AESPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Electric Utility (East)
ATSGPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Air Transport
ALKPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Air Transport
AAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Aerospace/Defense
AXPPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Financial Services
APAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Petroleum (Producing)
ATRPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Packaging and Container
ACGLPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADMPipe bottom      02/01/202102/01/2021Food Processing
AXSPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BMIPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Precision Instrument
BECNPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Retail Building Supply
BAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Aerospace/Defense
CBTPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Chemical (Diversified)
CLSPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Electronics
CENXPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COPPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
CREEPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Semiconductor
CROXPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Shoe
DVNPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
^DJTPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021None
EOGPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
REPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXPDPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Air Transport
FDXPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Air Transport
FLSPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Machinery
FWRDPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ITPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021IT Services
GSPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Securities Brokerage
GPROPipe top      01/25/202102/01/2021Electronics
HSCPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Diversified Co.
HSIIPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Human Resources
HSICPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Medical Supplies
HOVFlag, high and tight      01/04/202102/11/2021Homebuilding
ITWPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Metal Fabricating
INOVPipe bottom      02/01/202102/01/2021Healthcare Information
NSPPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Human Resources
IBPPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Retail Building Supply
ITGRPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Electronics
IPIFlag, high and tight      12/22/202002/11/2021Chemical (Diversified)
JBLUPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Air Transport
KALUPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
KELYAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Human Resources
LHXPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Aerospace/Defense
LEGRectangle top      08/10/202002/11/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
MTSIPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Semiconductor
MROPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
MCHXFlag, high and tight      12/30/202002/11/2021Advertising
MAHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/15/202102/09/2021Financial Services
MSPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Securities Brokerage
ASGNPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Human Resources
PATKPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Retail Building Supply
PCGPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Electric Utility (West)
KWRBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/07/202102/05/2021Chemical (Specialty)
RLPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Apparel
RLIPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SAIAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
TPRPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Apparel
VMIPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Metal Fabricating
WRBPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WLKPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Chemical (Basic)
WEXPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Information Services
WMBTriangle, ascending      12/09/202002/11/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
WWWPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Shoe
ZBRAPipe bottom      01/25/202102/01/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.3% or -35.17 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 523 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 286 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 237 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 209/368 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not a lot to say about the index this week. Not shown, but the chart pattern indicator has rounded over and is heading down. That's bad news, but things could change easily enough and the indicator could recover. It's at 85 now, still bullish.

The chart shows an uptrend, A, following a nice gentle slope higher. At B, the index tumbled but only to C. After that, it trended up, following line D.

Notice that the slope of A and D are similar. I've heard about this often enough, where a trendline break resumes at the same slope but I rarely see it in action. This is an example of that kind of trendline break which resumes. Nice.

That's it. I'll let you get back to watching Trump's impeachment trial.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 300 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AES, APD, ATSG, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BMRN, BA, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CALM, CLS, CX, CENX, CVX, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, COP, COST, COTY, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, D, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, RE, EVH, EXPD, XOM, FB, FDS, FICO, FDX, FEYE, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, IT, GL, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, LB, LHX, LEG, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MLHR, MCO, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NFLX, NTAP, NXGN, ORI, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PKE, PATK, PFE, PCG, PICO, PPL, PFG, PEG, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGA, REV, RLI, ROG, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SHW, SWN, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VLO, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXL, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EWP, PPA, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLK, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,129.72    
 Weekly S2  12,915.36  785.64   
 Monthly S1  13,051.13  135.76   
 Weekly S1  13,443.95  392.82   
 Monthly Pivot  13,464.64  20.70   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  13,661.05  196.41   
 Daily S2  13,712.06  51.00   
 Daily S1  13,842.29  130.24   
 Low  13,845.47  3.18   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,946.18  100.71   
 Close  13,972.53  26.35   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  13,975.71  3.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,977.29  1.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,008.41  31.11   
 Open  14,093.35  84.94   
 Daily R1  14,105.94  12.59   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  14,109.12  3.18   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  14,189.64  80.52   
 Daily R2  14,239.36  49.72   
 Monthly R1  14,386.05  146.69   
 Weekly R2  14,406.74  20.70   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  14,799.56  392.82   

Wednesday 2/10/21. Indicators Bullish But...

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green vertical line on the far right of the chart has beaten off the bears to change the chart bullish. However, look at the thin blue (CPI) line near the bottom of the chart.

Notice how it has rounded over at the top. That's not conclusive that the market will drop going forward because the indicator can move sideways. But it's usually a good sign of weakness.

Just look at the historical record in June and October. Those two times the indicator hit 100 and plunged, followed by the index dropping, too.

Although the chart is bullish, it's warning of a bearish retrace coming.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 19% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 19% on 02/08/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 02/08/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement this week over the prior week. They are following the index higher. I don't see anything that would cause me to be worried about the future, but these lines just follow the index anyway.

So the CPI chart is bullish but hinting of a bearish retrace, and this chart is bullish. I expect the uptrend to continue, but weakly. Maybe additional strong earnings will help it move higher, but weak reports can also send the market tumbling.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 270 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, AEIS, AES, ATSG, ALK, AA, ADS, AMED, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BMRN, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CBT, COG, CLS, CX, CENX, CVX, CINF, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, CSOD, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, D, DOV, EMN, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FICO, FAST, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, IT, GNW, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KBAL, LB, LHX, LAMR, LEG, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NJR, NOC, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RL, RGA, REV, RLI, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, NOW, SHW, SKX, SWX, STMP, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TPX, TDC, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, VFC, VMI, VEEV, VC, VMC, WRB, WU, WLK, WEX, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IGV, IGE, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWL, TUR, EWU, PPA, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! PEG

The index climbed by 0.8% or 237.52 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 590 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 327 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 263 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 221/383 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Public Service Enterprise Group: PEG stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AMED, AIG, APH, APOG, ARCB, ADSK, BECN, BZH, BBY, BIO, BMY, COG, CX, CENX, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, COP, CLR, CCRN, CMI, ^DJU, EMN, WIRE, EIGI, EL, EXPD, XOM, FB, FDX, FE, FLIR, FCX, GPS, GPRO, HBI, HL, HSII, HSIC, IDA, IDXX, INCY, IBP, K, KMT, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MU, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, OXY, OXM, PYPL, PRFT, PICO, PNW, POR, PEG, RL, RJF, ROG, SEE, NOW, SWX, STMP, SXI, TGT, TPX, TDC, TSCO, RIG, TREX, VLO, VMI, VRTX, VC, VMC, WU, WLK, WDAY, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EPP, THD, EWU, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLB, XAR, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,422.17    
 Weekly S2  29,647.09  224.92   
 Monthly S1  30,403.97  756.87   
 Weekly S1  30,516.43  112.46   
 Monthly Pivot  30,838.09  321.67   
 Weekly Pivot  30,884.30  46.21   
 Daily S2  31,126.12  241.82   
 Low  31,191.20  65.08   
 Open  31,191.20  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  31,255.94  64.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,265.65  9.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,288.65  23.00   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,311.65  23.00   
 Daily Pivot  31,321.02  9.37   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  31,385.76  64.74   
 High  31,386.10  0.34   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  31,450.84  64.74   
 Daily R2  31,515.92  65.08   
 Weekly R1  31,753.64  237.72   
 Monthly R1  31,819.89  66.25   
 Weekly R2  32,121.51  301.63   
 Monthly R2  32,254.01  132.50   

Monday 2/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

LHR is a head-and-shoulders bottom with L being the left shoulder, R is the right shoulder, and head (H) is in between the two.

The squiggles turn into a valid chart pattern when the composite closes above the red neckline. Notice how the index rises in a nice move upward, fulfilling the measure rule.

That rule computes the height of the pattern from the low at the head to the neckline directly above then adds the height to the breakout price (where price crosses the red neckline). Price reaches the target, on average, 71% of the time.

I drew two blue lines following the uptrend which formed after the breakout from the head-and-shoulders pattern. The lines make a pattern, too. It's called an ascending broadening wedge. That means the two lines slope upward and diverge with plenty of crossing from trendline to trendline and plenty of trendline touches. The wedge is a pain to find and rare, too.

What the chart shows is that the index is headed toward the top trendline. If it behaves like it should, you'll see the index drop after it touches the top trendline or comes close to it before tumbling.

Of course, it might drop sooner, too, or continue rising.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 229.29 points.
Tuesday: Up 475.57 points.
Wednesday: Up 36.12 points.
Thursday: Up 332.26 points.
Friday: Up 92.38 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1165.62 points or 3.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 785.61 points or 6.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 172.59 points or 4.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 31,272.22 on 01/21/2021.
     4.3% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 13,878.16 on 02/05/2021.
     10.5% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 3,894.56 on 02/05/2021.
     6.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,992  31,070  31,161  31,239  31,330 
Weekly  29,568  30,358  30,805  31,595  32,042 
Monthly  29,343  30,246  30,759  31,662  32,175 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,866  3,876  3,885  3,896  3,905 
Weekly  3,667  3,777  3,836  3,946  4,005 
Monthly  3,583  3,735  3,815  3,967  4,047 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,716  13,786  13,832  13,902  13,949 
Weekly  12,877  13,366  13,622  14,112  14,368 
Monthly  12,091  12,974  13,426  14,309  14,761 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AEIS, AJRD, APD, AEE, AEL, APH, APA, ARCB, ADP, AXS, BSET, BZH, BERY, BIO, BA, BMY, BLDR, BG, CACI, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CLX, COP, CLGX, CSOD, COTY, CCRN, CW, DFS, DTE, EMN, WIRE, EFX, EL, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FE, FCX, GME, IT, GNW, GPRO, THG, ITW, KALU, KLAC, LDOS, LLY, LOW, LXU, MRK, MGEE, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NKE, NOC, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PKE, PICO, PINC, PRU, QCOM, RJF, REV, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, STMP, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TDC, TXN, TKR, RIG, TZOO, VLO, VC, WSO, WEX, WWW, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, FDN, FXL, IHF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XHB, XLI, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Shoe2. Apparel
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Shoe
4. Securities Brokerage4. Securities Brokerage
5. Electronics5. Metal Fabricating
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Metal Fabricating7. Retail Store
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Electronics
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
10. Human Resources10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. E-Commerce52. Food Processing
53. Information Services53. Aerospace/Defense
54. Food Processing54. Information Services
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Household Products
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Household Products57. Electric Utility (Central)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Natural Gas (Diversified)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, ADS, ABC, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, BCPC, BZH, BBY, BIO, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CAL, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLX, CNO, CMTL, CLR, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CCRN, ^DJU, BOOM, EBAY, WIRE, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FDP, GME, GNW, GPN, GPRO, HSC, HSII, HP, HNI, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LB, LAMR, LANC, LDOS, L, MANH, MDCA, MRK, NBR, CNR, NEU, NI, JWN, OXY, OMC, OMI, OXM, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PGR, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RGA, SMG, SIGI, SRE, SKX, SR, SXI, SCS, TXT, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WRB, WSO, WMB, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IYF, THD, PPA, PXJ, IXC, XLF, GLD, XLI, XAR, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADBEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/19/202101/29/2021Computer Software and Svcs
APOGScallop, ascending and inverted      01/04/202102/01/2021Building Materials
^DJUDiamond top      01/19/202102/01/2021None
FLEXDiamond top      01/08/202102/04/2021Electronics
IDXXBroadening top      12/28/202002/02/2021Drug
IPGBroadening top      01/14/202102/04/2021Advertising
LDOSPipe top      01/19/202101/25/2021IT Services
NBRPipe bottom      01/19/202101/25/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NVDARectangle top      01/07/202102/04/2021Semiconductor
PPGDiamond bottom      01/22/202102/04/2021Chemical (Diversified)
PPLTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/202102/04/2021Electric Utility (East)
QCOMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/20/202102/03/2021Telecom. Equipment
SOChannel      11/19/202002/04/2021Electric Utility (East)
SWNChannel      11/11/202002/04/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

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Thursday 2/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -2.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 679 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 385 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 208/367 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line under price at B. It shows support because the index bounced off the line three times.

Extending the line to the left, at A, shows support continues. The two red lines remind me of eyebrows.

Next came the V-shaped blue lines. Notice that the trend going down mirrors the slope going up. At the start, I drew a horizontal blue support line and then drew the one on the right. Label B was in the way, so I drew it below B, completing the symmetry of the picture.

Other than eyebrows with a V-smile, I'm not sure what it all means. If we assume symmetry will continue, then the composite will lose 100 points (to 13,500) and go horizontal, resting on the far left blue line to complete the picture.

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Here's a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AEIS, ATSG, AKAM, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, AMAT, ATO, AVA, BZH, BBBY, BKNG, BLDR, COG, CDNS, CHD, CLNE, CMTL, BOOM, WIRE, EFX, FEYE, FE, FMC, FORM, GME, GILD, GOOGL, HL, HD, HURC, INFN, IBP, IIIN, NVTA, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LDOS, LXU, MHO, MAN, MAS, MU, MUR, NBR, CNR, NFLX, ASGN, OMI, PRFT, PHM, QCOM, ROK, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SSYS, TPR, TER, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TREX, VEEV, WSO, WERN, XLNX, IHE, QTEC, IYH, SLV, EWJ, EWP, THD, TUR, IBB, DBA, PXJ, PHO, XHB, XRT, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,108.51    
 Weekly S2  12,697.59  589.08   
 Monthly S1  12,859.53  161.93   
 Weekly S1  13,154.07  294.54   
 Monthly Pivot  13,294.25  140.19   
 Weekly Pivot  13,441.52  147.27   
 Daily S2  13,501.41  59.89   
 Daily S1  13,555.98  54.56   
 Low  13,585.34  29.36   
 Close  13,610.54  25.20   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,638.24  27.70   
 Daily Pivot  13,639.90  1.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,654.58  14.68   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,670.93  16.34   
 Daily R1  13,694.47  23.54   
 Open  13,718.31  23.84   
 High  13,723.83  5.52   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  13,778.39  54.56   
 Weekly R1  13,898.00  119.60   
 Monthly R1  14,045.27  147.27   
 Weekly R2  14,185.45  140.19   
 Monthly R2  14,479.99  294.54   

Wednesday 2/3/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish yesterday (two price bars back) after briefly turning bearish. Of course, the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, so we'll have to see if the bullish signal remains.

Today's (Tuesday's) move pulled the indicator up a lot, suggesting a broad advance across many stocks. Could this be the end of the downtrend? I wondered about that and thought of flipping my targets (Tom's Targets in the grid at page top) to bullish from bearish.

I decided to leave them alone in case this is a pause (upward retrace) in the downward trend.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/20/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 11% on 01/20/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines are worse this week than they were at the same time a week ago. However, if you look at the chart, you'll see the lines (blue and red) have curled up. That's bullish.

So both charts this week are either outright bullish (CPI chart) or hinting of an upturn (this chart).

The big question is, will the uptrend continue? For that, I have no answer. Sorry.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ALL, AYX, AEO, BLL, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BLDR, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CLX, CMTL, CROX, CCRN, DECK, DVN, DRQ, WIRE, EOG, EQT, XOM, FB, FE, GME, GS, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HON, INFN, IIIN, IVC, JCOM, KELYA, KFRC, LAWS, LDOS, MHO, MRO, MA, NBR, CNR, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, JWN, OMI, PANW, POR, PHM, RMBS, RJF, RHI, CRM, SCS, SNPS, TECH, WSO, WDAY, ITB, IEO, FXI, ICF, IYZ, EEM, EWG, EWY, EWT, TUR, XHB, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/2/21. GME and AMC Intraday

The index climbed by 0.8% or 229.29 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 326 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 263 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 220/382 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz (version 7.28). This version fixes bugs. After I released it this morning, I crashed the simulator. Version 7.29 appears to fix it, so you can download that if you've already installed Patternz.

$ $ $

Picture of Gamestop.

Today, I thought I'd look at Gamestop (GME) and AMC (AMC) to see how easy/difficult it would be to make money trading them. Let's look at Gamestop first.

This is the stock for the last 4 days on the 5 minute scale.

Last Tuesday, the stock closed at 147.98. You can just seen a nubbin of it on the chart (far left).

On Wednesday, the stock gapped up to open at 354.83, a gain of 140%. I show the horizontal blue line where it opened. At A, the stock peaked at a high of 380. Notice that if you bought the stock at the open, you'd have a narrow window of opportunity to profit starting at A. For the rest of the day, you'd be losing money.

The next day, Thursday, you could buy the stock at the open, B, and ride the stock higher, much higher, to 483, representing a gain of 39% if you traded it perfectly. You had about 1.5 hours to sell the stock for a profit. Most of the day was spent below the opening price.

On Friday, the blue line at C shows that you had less than 5 minutes (the opening bar) to sell the stock for a profit.

Today, Monday, the stock opened high and dropped steadily after 11:00.

Look at the entire chart and notice how buying at the open and trying to sell during the same day would most likely leave your wallet or purse lighter than when you started. Also notice that the stock was higher at A than it closed today. That tells me the trend is downward.

AMC Intraday

Picture of Gamestop.

Does AMC (AMC) stock show the same behavior? Let's take a look.

This is AMC stock (one of those highlighted in the media over the last week) on the 5-minute scale.

If you bought at the open, at A, you'd have a loss. The next day, B, you would have fared better by having over half an hour to sell for a profit.

At C, the profit opportunity would happen just after noon but you'd have to weather a dip and sell when others were out to lunch.

Forget today (D). Buying at the open would result in a loss, riding the stock down from 17 to about 13, for a loss of 24%.

Trading AMC stock would not be an easy way to make money either. Of course, if you held onto the stock, you might be able to eke out a profit on succeeding days.

AMC shows a different trend. The last three days price has climbed (the open at D is higher than C, and C is higher than B), so it's an upward trend.

Buying near the day's low, if you're lucky enough to do that and selling higher (especially the next day in AMC) would be profitable as would owning the stock before these shenanigans began.

The point I'm making here is trading these stocks to make money won't be easy.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AMD, AA, AEE, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AMAT, AVA, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BRKS, CHD, CINF, CL, CMCO, CSOD, CREE, CRH, CROX, DVN, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EPAM, EQT, RE, FDS, FISV, FLIR, FTNT, GME, GPN, GS, GPRO, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSY, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LLY, LXU, MRO, MA, MTRN, MDT, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NOC, PICO, PINC, ROG, RES, SAIC, SEE, SUM, UPS, WERN, WLK, ITA, IAI, IYC, IEO, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,030.89    
 Weekly S2  29,131.42  100.53   
 Monthly S1  29,621.40  489.98   
 Weekly S1  29,671.67  50.27   
 Daily S2  29,866.66  194.99   
 Low  30,014.97  148.31   
 Daily S1  30,039.28  24.31   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  30,054.73  15.45   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,137.57  82.84   
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,175.44  37.87   
 Daily Pivot  30,187.60  12.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  30,211.91  24.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,213.31  1.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  30,335.91  122.60   
 Daily R1  30,360.22  24.31   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  30,396.54  36.32   
 Monthly Pivot  30,446.81  50.27   
 Daily R2  30,508.54  61.73   
 Weekly R1  30,936.79  428.25   
 Monthly R1  31,037.32  100.53   
 Weekly R2  31,661.66  624.34   
 Monthly R2  31,862.73  201.07   

Monday 2/1/21. Monthly Forecast Update

Forecast

Before I forget, I've created a new series of articles which I call Traps. I only have one written so far, but the category is meant to place chart patterns in the price landscape to show what works and what doesn't. The first article is The Top Trap. It describes when patterns fail after a top occurs. You can find links to Traps on the home page, too.

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for February, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 29 January 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

11. Energy (3.6%).
4. Health care (+1.3%)
9. Real estate (0.5%)
2. Consumer discretionary (+0.4%)
7. Utilities (-1.0%)
1. Information technology (-1.0%)
3. Communication services (-2.0%)
10. Financials (-2.0%)
5. Materials (-2.4%)
8. Industrials (-4.0%)
6. Consumer staples (-5.0%)

Compared to last year's totals, where the list was stable from month to month, this time the list has been shuffled. That's probably because it's only been a month. Results are easier to change after a month (YTD) compared to 12 months (YTD). Notice how a few near the bottom of last year's list (energy, real estate) are near the top now.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new). Automobiles (13.6%)
6. Life sciences tools & Services (+7.3%)
(new). Household durables (5.2%)
(new). Oil, gas & consumable fuels (4.2%)
(new). Auto components (3.8%)
(new). Independent power and renewable electric producers (3.8%)
7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+2.4%)
(new). Biotechnology (+2.3%)
(new). Health care technology (+2.1%)
(new). Pharmaceuticals (+1.8%)

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 36.98 points.
Tuesday: Down 22.96 points.
Wednesday: Down 633.87 points.
Thursday: Up 300.19 points.
Friday: Down 620.74 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1014.36 points or 3.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 472.37 points or 3.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 127.23 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.1% down from the high of 31,272.22 on 01/21/2021.
     0.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     4.8% down from the high of 13,728.98 on 01/25/2021.
     4.2% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     4.0% down from the high of 3,870.90 on 01/26/2021.
     1.4% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  29,433  29,708  30,131  30,406  30,829 
Weekly  29,055  29,519  30,320  30,784  31,585 
Monthly  28,954  29,469  30,370  30,884  31,786 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,645  3,680  3,729  3,763  3,813 
Weekly  3,583  3,649  3,760  3,825  3,937 
Monthly  3,541  3,628  3,749  3,836  3,957 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,789  12,930  13,126  13,267  13,463 
Weekly  12,518  12,794  13,262  13,538  14,006 
Monthly  11,929  12,500  13,114  13,685  14,300 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AKAM, ALKS, AEE, AIG, APA, ACGL, AVA, BMI, BAX, BIIB, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CVX, CINF, CLX, CROX, CSGS, DVN, BOOM, EQT, RE, EXPD, EZPW, FLIR, FLS, GME, GD, GPN, GS, GFF, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HSII, HSY, HOLX, JBHT, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LANC, LLY, LNC, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MLI, NBR, CNR, NJR, NOC, NVDA, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PKE, PYPL, PICO, PNW, PPG, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, SCHW, SEE, SCCO, STMP, TER, TKR, TRV, UGI, WEX, IEO, IHE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Apparel
2. Apparel2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Securities Brokerage4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Metal Fabricating5. Semiconductor
6. Computers and Peripherals6. Securities Brokerage
7. Retail Store7. Metal Fabricating
8. Electronics8. Electronics
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Cement and Aggregates10. Air Transport
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Food Processing52. Food Processing
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Natural Gas (Distributor)
54. Information Services54. Information Services
55. Household Products55. Household Products
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Electric Utility (Central)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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