Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20
As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20

 

January 2021 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 1/21/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.0% or 260.07 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 50 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 31 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 19 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 206/365 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't have a lot to say about the Nasdaq today. It was following a horizontal lines which formed a rectangle top. I show that as two horizontal red lines (A).

That rectangle morphed into a channel. Those are the two parallel but up-sloping red lines (B).

The channel shows price hitting the top of the channel and turning lower. If I had drawn the lower trendline better (closer), it might see the index touching it today (Wednesday). That suggests the index will bounce off the bottom trendline and head for the top of the channel.

It could break though the lower channel line or it could bounce upward. The above probabilities suggest the index will close higher.

$ $ $

I released a new chart pattern today called a pothole. It's essentially the daily (scale) version of a diving board pattern. For performance it ranks 4th out of 40 patterns, where a rank of 1 is best, but it's rare.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, AYX, DOX, ACGL, ARW, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BMRN, BOOT, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CNC, CNP, CINF, CLF, CNA, CL, CREE, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, EIX, EOG, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FFG, FIVN, FMC, FCX, IT, THG, HTLD, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, INFN, NSP, IBKR, TILE, INTU, K, KMT, KLAC, LHX, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MCHX, MTRN, MDC, MLHR, MLI, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NJR, NWL, NEE, NKE, NOC, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, PAYX, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, SAIC, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TRV, WU, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHE, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, EWA, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWY, THD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, XLY, XLP, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,001.34    
 Monthly S1  12,729.29  727.96   
 Weekly S2  12,938.66  209.36   
 Monthly Pivot  12,974.73  36.07   
 Weekly S1  13,197.95  223.23   
 Weekly Pivot  13,209.06  11.10   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  13,268.02  58.97   
 Low  13,329.77  61.75   
 Open  13,342.55  12.78   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  13,362.64  20.09   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,389.50  26.86   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,407.95  18.45   
 Daily Pivot  13,424.38  16.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,426.40  2.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,457.25  30.85   
 Weekly R1  13,468.35  11.10   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly R2  13,479.46  11.10   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  13,486.13  6.67   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R1  13,519.00  32.87   
 Daily R2  13,580.74  61.75   
 Monthly R1  13,702.68  121.94   
 Monthly R2  13,948.12  245.43   

Wednesday 1/20/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Divergence between the indicator and the index has returned, but it didn't really go away. I wondered about it going into January when the indicator climbed.

The divergence is bearish, though. The CPI is trending downward (B) even as the index climbs (A). It suggests that the index will follow the CPI lower. However, you can see that divergence can last for months without any significant retrace in the index.

We're coming up on 2 months which compares to the 2 month's worth of divergence from mid July to September. The index finally tumbled in September. Maybe it will drop soon, too.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 20% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/14/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 11% on 01/21/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red line is the only one to make a move from a week ago (among the two lines, red and blue). The red line is the more sensitive of the two, so be careful what you say. Smiley

Notice that the red line is near an all-time high. The blue line is close behind, too. That's bullish but it makes me wonder how far higher can it go without a retrace.

We'll find out, of course. All it takes is time.

The prior chart is bullish but showing bearish divergence (a warning). This chart is bullish, too, but it's long in the tooth as well. So it's time for caution. Gather your cash and be ready to buy on the dip.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AKAM, AA, AEE, AXP, AIG, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, APA, ACGL, AVA, BERY, BBY, BKH, BAH, BRC, BRKS, CBT, CALM, CE, CF, CRL, CLF, CNA, CL, CONN, GLW, COST, CTS, DHR, DFS, D, DTE, DUK, EIX, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FMC, GME, GIS, GILD, EVRG, HBI, HL, HD, HON, JBHT, HURC, IEX, KBH, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MCHX, MAS, MDCA, MGEE, MS, MLI, NFG, NOV, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, NWPX, ORI, PKG, PRFT, POL, PPG, PEG, RMBS, RGS, REV, ROK, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEE, SO, SWX, SSYS, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TJX, TOL, UPS, UNM, VMI, WRB, WMT, WAT, WERN, WWW, IYM, IAI, ITB, IHE, IDU, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, PJP, ILF, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/19/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Noven Pharma

The index dropped by -0.6% or -177.26 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 677 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 350 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 327 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 219/380 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Noven Pharmaceutical: NOVN (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 93 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AJRD, AES, AKAM, ALRM, AEP, AFG, AIG, ABC, ANIK, AON, ACGL, AVY, BERY, BRC, CNC, CF, CRL, CLX, CNA, COP, CLGX, ^DJU, DOV, EMR, RE, EXC, FFIV, FE, FRD, HL, HNI, IEX, ITW, NSP, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, LH, MGEE, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NVDA, OGE, ASGN, PDCO, PAYX, PNW, POL, PEG, RGA, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEE, TPX, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TREX, UGI, UPS, VC, WMT, WU, WMB, WSM, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, ITB, IDU, FDN, SLV, EWH, EIS, DBA, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLP, SPY, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,129.61    
 Monthly S1  29,971.93  842.33   
 Weekly S2  30,272.46  300.53   
 Daily S2  30,460.33  187.87   
 Weekly S1  30,543.36  83.03   
 Monthly Pivot  30,597.86  54.50   
 Low  30,612.67  14.81   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  30,637.29  24.62   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,738.47  101.17   
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,777.32  38.86   
 Daily Pivot  30,789.64  12.31   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  30,814.26  24.62   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,816.18  1.92   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  30,883.57  67.39   
 Open  30,926.77  43.20   
 High  30,941.98  15.21   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  30,966.60  24.62   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  31,118.95  152.34   
 Weekly R1  31,154.47  35.52   
 Monthly R1  31,440.18  285.71   
 Weekly R2  31,494.68  54.50   
 Monthly R2  32,066.11  571.43   

Friday 1/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMAT, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, BLL, BBBY, BMRN, BMY, CLS, CNC, CNP, CVX, CHS, CLX, CGNX, CL, CAG, CLGX, GLW, DECK, DDS, D, BOOM, EIX, EOG, EL, RE, FFIV, FB, FE, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GME, IT, GD, EVRG, HELE, HSY, JBHT, IDA, IEX, INCY, NSP, IPAR, IBKR, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, CNR, NEE, NOC, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, PANW, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PFE, PG, QCOM, RGA, REV, ^GSPC, CRM, SMG, SEE, NOW, SHW, LUV, SR, SSYS, TFX, TMO, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VRSN, VC, WAT, WU, WLK, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLP, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AONScallop, ascending and inverted      11/04/202001/14/2021Insurance (Diversified)
GMEFlag, high and tight      11/16/202001/14/2021Retail (Special Lines)
LRCXScallop, ascending      12/15/202001/14/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LEGRectangle top      08/10/202001/14/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
MLHRScallop, descending      12/16/202001/14/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
ASGNHorn bottom      12/21/202001/04/2021Human Resources
OTEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/12/2021E-Commerce
OUTRectangle top      11/24/202001/14/2021Advertising
PDCOPipe bottom      12/28/202001/04/2021Medical Supplies
SHWRectangle top      12/09/202001/14/2021Chemical (Basic)
SXIPennant      01/06/202101/13/2021Diversified Co.
SNPSDiamond top      12/22/202001/14/2021Computer Software and Svcs
WUBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/25/202001/14/2021Financial Services
WMBPipe bottom      12/28/202001/04/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
WSMPipe bottom      12/28/202001/04/2021Retail (Special Lines)

 

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Thursday 1/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 56.52 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 615 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 391 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 224 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 206/364 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/119 or 47.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, the index formed a broadening pattern (right-angled and descending) (flat top, down-sloping bottom). It completed a partial rise and broke out downward around C where the pattern broke out downward...and then price stopped declining.

I extended the top red line to show where resistance is.

At BCD, the pattern is a head-and-shoulders bottom, even though the right shoulder needs air to inflate it. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the blue neckline.

To me, this chart looks bullish, but I expect the index to retrace more followed by a resumption of the up move. Applying numbers, I'd guess a drop to 13,050 to 13,075 and then a rise back to 13,125.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AFL, AA, AMED, AXP, AMGN, AMAT, AWI, AGO, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BAH, BMY, BBW, CPB, CRL, CHKP, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, COTY, CREE, DHR, DECK, DRQ, DTE, EIX, EFX, RE, EZPW, FDS, FEYE, FE, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GME, IT, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HAYN, HELE, HSY, HNI, HUBG, HURC, INCY, INFN, NSP, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KLIC, LEG, RAMP, MTSI, MANH, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MRK, NOV, CNR, NEE, NXGN, NI, OMCL, ASGN, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PCG, RGA, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SLB, SMG, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, SWN, STMP, UGI, WAT, WLK, WMB, WSM, XLNX, IEZ, IDU, FXL, ICF, IYZ, EWK, EWW, EWT, TUR, PXJ, PHO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,857.24    
 Weekly S2  12,295.24  438.00   
 Monthly S1  12,493.10  197.85   
 Weekly S1  12,712.10  219.00   
 Monthly Pivot  12,850.59  138.50   
 Weekly Pivot  12,960.09  109.50   
 Daily S2  12,996.96  36.87   
 Low  13,051.06  54.10   
 Daily S1  13,062.96  11.90   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  13,088.01  25.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,096.93  8.92   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,111.11  14.17   
 Daily Pivot  13,117.05  5.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,125.28  8.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,128.95  3.67   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  13,171.15  42.20   
 Daily R1  13,183.05  11.90   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  13,237.14  54.10   
 Weekly R1  13,376.95  139.80   
 Monthly R1  13,486.45  109.50   
 Weekly R2  13,624.94  138.50   
 Monthly R2  13,843.94  219.00   

Wednesday 1/13/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The last green vertical bar on the right is the bullish signal of the CPI chart. The indicator has been trending lower since November, but has ticked up in the last two weeks or so (since the December low).

I thought bearish divergence shown between the two lines (CPI and index) would see the index drop, but it's climbed instead, defying gravity. With the CPI line rising, my guess is the uptrend in the market's will continue.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 29%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both the blue and red lines have made a strong comeback a few days ago, so that they are much higher than they were a week ago.

The more sensitive red line shows it moving higher even as the index has eased lower in the last day or two (or so it looks in this chart).

So both charts are bullish. It suggests the market will continue higher so that's the way I'm going to place me bets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 116 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AMED, AEL, AON, APA, ADM, AGO, BBBY, BMRN, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CDNS, CALM, CPB, CRL, CTXS, CNO, CGNX, COP, CW, DHR, DUK, EOG, EPAM, EQT, RE, EXPD, FDS, FLEX, FORM, FRD, GILD, GS, HBI, HE, HSII, HP, HURC, INOV, NSP, IIIN, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LEN, MAN, MRTN, MDCA, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, NOV, NOC, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PRFT, PEG, QCOM, RGA, RES, SCHW, SAIC, SWN, SXI, SSYS, TEVA, RIG, UNM, VMI, VC, WMT, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYE, IHI, IEO, IHE, FXI, ICF, ECH, EWH, EIS, PXJ, IXC, XLP, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 1/12/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.3% or -89.28 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1059 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 499 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 560 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 219/380 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Micron Technology: MU (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALKS, ADS, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, AON, AMAT, ASH, AGO, BZH, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BMY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, COG, CAL, CPB, CLS, CINF, CLX, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, CLGX, GLW, CROX, CSGS, DECK, D, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, EXC, FFG, FOE, FLS, FWRD, FDP, GME, GPS, GILD, GPN, GS, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, HBI, HE, HAYN, HELE, HP, IEX, INOV, JKHY, KMB, KSS, LRCX, LDOS, LLY, M, MAS, MDCA, MLI, NTGR, NXGN, OUT, OXM, PKG, PRFT, RMBS, RGS, RHI, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SHW, SWN, TPX, TER, RIG, VMI, WMT, WSM, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, FXL, ICF, EWI, PPA, PJP, XLE, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,214.67    
 Weekly S2  29,383.06  168.39   
 Monthly S1  30,111.68  728.62   
 Weekly S1  30,195.87  84.19   
 Monthly Pivot  30,652.54  456.67   
 Weekly Pivot  30,694.64  42.10   
 Daily S2  30,714.32  19.69   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  30,832.06  117.74   
 Daily S1  30,861.51  29.45   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,933.26  71.75   
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,964.52  31.26   
 Daily Pivot  30,979.24  14.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,995.78  16.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  31,008.69  12.91   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  31,015.37  6.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  31,096.98  81.61   
 Daily R1  31,126.43  29.45   
 Daily R2  31,244.16  117.74   
 Weekly R1  31,507.45  263.29   
 Monthly R1  31,549.55  42.10   
 Weekly R2  32,006.22  456.67   
 Monthly R2  32,090.41  84.19   

Monday 1/11/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Starting from the left at D, we see a flag which appears near midway along the short-term uptrend.

At C, in blue, is a right-angled and ascending broadening formation. That's a mouthful describing what looks like a megaphone tilted upward so that the bottom of the pattern is horizontal, or nearly so.

At A is a descending triangle. The bottom of the pattern is flat and the top slopes downward. Price breaks out downward at A but quickly reverses.

The reversals sends price higher, from A to B. In examples of similar patterns, I noticed that the AB move tends to be powerful, lasting a multiple (like three, four, or more times) of the height of the triangle.

So I think the transports are in for a short-term move higher.

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a goat.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 382.59 points.
Tuesday: Up 167.71 points.
Wednesday: Up 437.8 points.
Thursday: Up 211.73 points.
Friday: Up 56.84 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 491.49 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 313.7 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 68.61 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 31,193.40 on 01/07/2021.
     4.1% up from the low of 29,881.82 on 01/04/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 13,208.09 on 01/08/2021.
     5.3% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 3,869.99 on 01/04/2021.
     4.4% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,663  30,881  31,011  31,228  31,358 
Weekly  29,413  30,255  30,724  31,567  32,036 
Monthly  29,244  30,171  30,682  31,609  32,120 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,769  3,797  3,812  3,840  3,855 
Weekly  3,579  3,702  3,786  3,909  3,993 
Monthly  3,539  3,682  3,776  3,919  4,013 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,977  13,090  13,149  13,261  13,320 
Weekly  12,320  12,761  12,984  13,426  13,649 
Monthly  11,882  12,542  12,875  13,535  13,868 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, ADS, AEL, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, APA, AGO, AVY, BMI, BAX, BZH, BERY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CE, CLS, CNP, CIEN, CMCO, COP, CSGS, CMI, DVN, D, DRQ, BOOM, WIRE, EOG, RE, EZPW, FFIV, FIS, FLIR, FDP, FRD, GNW, GPN, HBI, HE, HELE, HP, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, IVC, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, KLAC, LEN, MHO, MAN, MRO, MLM, MU, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NI, OXY, ASGN, OXM, RL, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SRE, SO, TECH, TXN, RIG, VLO, VEEV, V, VMC, WERN, XLNX, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EWS, EWY, THD, TUR, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLB, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Air Transport
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Shoe
4. Metal Fabricating4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Insurance (Life)5. Metal Fabricating
6. Electronics6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Securities Brokerage7. Homebuilding
8. Cement and Aggregates8. Semiconductor
9. Human Resources9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.10. Telecom. Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Information Services
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Information Services52. Electric Utility (East)
53. E-Commerce53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Household Products54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Biotechnology55. Biotechnology
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Electric Utility (Central)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Petroleum (Integrated)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/8/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AYX, AEE, AEP, AEL, APA, AMAT, AGO, ATO, AVY, BLL, BERY, BIO, BKH, BBW, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CAG, CLGX, CREE, CRH, DHR, DFS, ^DJU, D, DRQ, DTE, DUK, EXP, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EZPW, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FDP, GD, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HTLD, DHI, JBHT, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, K, LB, LRCX, MGEE, MLHR, MOS, NCR, NFLX, NEU, NI, NVDA, PANW, PAYX, PICO, PNW, PPL, PINC, PGR, RL, REV, RES, SRE, SKX, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TXT, TKR, RIG, UGI, UPS, VEEV, VRSN, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWO, EIS, EWY, EWT, QLD, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 41 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 7.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (17) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021IT Services
ALBFlag, high and tight      11/05/202001/07/2021Chemical (Diversified)
AELTriple bottom      12/11/202001/04/2021Insurance (Life)
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      10/28/202001/05/2021Building Materials
ANTMHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/20/202001/06/2021Medical Services
AAPLCup with handle      09/02/202001/07/2021Computers and Peripherals
AMATScallop, ascending      12/15/202001/07/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ADSKBroadening top      12/18/202001/06/2021Computer Software and Svcs
BBYDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/10/202001/04/2021Retail (Special Lines)
CALFlag, high and tight      10/30/202001/07/2021Shoe
CFScallop, ascending      12/14/202001/07/2021Chemical (Basic)
CMCODouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      12/23/202001/04/2021Machinery
GLWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021Telecom. Equipment
CREEFlag, high and tight      11/10/202001/07/2021Semiconductor
DHRRectangle bottom      11/30/202001/04/2021Precision Instrument
FFGBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/04/202001/05/2021Insurance (Life)
FISVDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/23/202001/04/2021IT Services
FDPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/22/202001/04/2021Food Processing
FRDTriangle, symmetrical      12/04/202001/05/2021Building Materials
GNWDead-cat bounce      12/31/202001/04/2021Insurance (Life)
GESFlag, high and tight      10/30/202001/07/2021Apparel
IEXTriangle, ascending      11/18/202001/05/2021Machinery
KELYADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021Human Resources
KMTScallop, ascending and inverted      11/04/202001/04/2021Metal Fabricating
KBALBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      12/09/202001/06/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
MLHRScallop, descending      12/16/202001/06/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
NVDARectangle top      11/10/202001/07/2021Semiconductor
OMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021Advertising
OUTRectangle top      11/24/202001/07/2021Advertising
PANWPipe top      12/28/202012/28/2020Computer Software and Svcs
RGADouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/21/202001/04/2021Insurance (Life)
RHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021Human Resources
RESPipe bottom      12/21/202012/28/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SLBScallop, ascending      12/17/202001/07/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
LUVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202001/04/2021Air Transport
SCSDiamond top      12/04/202001/07/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
SSYSFlag, high and tight      11/05/202001/07/2021Electronics
SUMScallop, ascending      12/04/202001/06/2021Cement and Aggregates
SNPSBroadening top      12/22/202001/06/2021Computer Software and Svcs
TGTScallop, ascending      12/01/202001/07/2021Retail Store
TPXScallop, ascending and inverted      12/10/202001/04/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
TXTTriangle, ascending      11/24/202001/07/2021Diversified Co.
RIGPipe bottom      12/21/202012/28/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

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Thursday 1/7/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -78.17 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 319 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 143 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 176 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 206/364 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 57/118 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I took a break from doing nothing to go downstairs just after 2 PM EST and turned on the TV. There I saw what was happening in the capital. Notice that just after 2:00 (red line A) the composite started to drop. I was wondering how the market would react to the news. The Dow industrials dropped about the same time, too.

Notice how the composite has bottomed at the blue line. That's trendline support, but for it to be real, the composite has to turn upward here. I suspect that we'll see the markets rebound on Thursday. That goes against the above probabilities where 55% of the time the composite closes lower.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 226 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, ATSG, ALB, AA, ADS, AEO, AEP, AEL, AXP, AFG, AMGN, ANTM, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ASH, AGO, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNA, CGNX, CONN, CR, CRH, CROX, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DFS, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EIX, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FB, FISV, FCX, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GILD, GL, GPRO, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HD, JBHT, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, KBAL, LB, LZB, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, CNR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, JWN, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PANW, PKE, PATK, PRFT, PICO, POL, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RL, RMBS, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, RES, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SHW, SWX, SXI, SUM, TKR, TOL, RIG, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VC, VMC, WMT, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IHE, IDU, ICF, IHF, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWI, EWP, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,634.26    
 Monthly S1  12,187.52  553.27   
 Daily S2  12,507.16  319.64   
 Monthly Pivot  12,580.43  73.26   
 Daily S1  12,623.98  43.55   
 Low  12,649.99  26.01   
 Open  12,666.15  16.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly S2  12,693.02  26.87   
 Weekly S1  12,716.90  23.89   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Close  12,740.79  23.89   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,749.17  8.38   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  12,766.80  17.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,779.81  13.01   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,810.45  30.64   
 Weekly Pivot  12,845.12  34.67   
 Weekly R1  12,869.00  23.89   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  12,883.62  14.61   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  12,909.63  26.01   
 Weekly R2  12,997.22  87.59   
 Daily R2  13,026.44  29.23   
 Monthly R1  13,133.69  107.25   
 Monthly R2  13,526.60  392.90   

Wednesday 1/6/21. Indicators: Bulls are Back

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator shot up today (Tuesday), climbing along with the market. Any bearish signals during the past week have been erased by an indicator which can make up its mind for a week.

So we remain bullish as the vertical green line on the right of the chart (November) shows.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 19% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 470 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The red line turned bearish compared to a week ago, but the blue line didn't budge. Both lines are about flat over the last month. The red line turning bearish doesn't concern me that much. As you look at the chart, notice that it's been wobbling up and down recently. So maybe next week it'll be up.

What's it all mean? The CPI chart is bullish. This chart is neutral. So that favors a continuation of the upward trend, I believe.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AYI, AJRD, AES, ATSG, AEO, AMN, APOG, BCPC, BERY, BKH, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CLX, COP, CLR, CLGX, CROX, CTS, DECK, D, EXP, EIX, EOG, RE, XOM, FOE, FLIR, FCX, FRD, GL, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HE, ILMN, INCY, INTC, IVC, JNJ, LXU, MCHX, MA, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OLN, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PRFT, PHM, KWR, RMBS, ROG, RES, SMG, SRE, SHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SUM, TEVA, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VMI, VEEV, VRTX, V, WRB, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYM, IYE, IDU, FDN, ICF, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWH, EWW, EWY, EWT, THD, IXC, XLB, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/5/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -1.3% or -382.59 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 214 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 111 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 103 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 51.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 218/379 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/85 or 48.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Michaels Stores: MIK (actual trade).

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Here's a symbol list of 298 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADBE, AJRD, AFL, APD, ALB, ADS, AYX, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, ABC, AMGN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AVA, AXS, BSET, BERY, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CACI, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CNP, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CL, CMTL, ED, CAG, COP, CLGX, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, CMI, CW, DDS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, DUK, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EIGI, EOG, EFX, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FB, FDX, FE, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FDP, GPS, GD, GE, GNW, GILD, GL, GOOGL, GGG, THG, HLIT, HSC, HE, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INCY, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, KALU, KMT, LB, LHX, LH, LAMR, LAWS, LEN, LLY, LNC, LMT, MHO, M, MANH, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NWPX, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, POL, PPG, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, CRM, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TPX, TDC, TXN, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VMI, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHI, IDU, DDM, FXL, ICF, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, QLD, PPA, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,934.50    
 Daily S2  29,467.54  533.03   
 Monthly S1  29,579.20  111.66   
 Daily S1  29,845.71  266.52   
 Low  29,881.82  36.11   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S2  30,015.30  133.48   
 Monthly Pivot  30,108.33  93.03   
 Weekly S1  30,119.60  11.26   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,184.54  64.94   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  30,223.89  39.35   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  30,260.00  36.11   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,278.05  18.05   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,371.56  93.51   
 Weekly Pivot  30,378.53  6.97   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  30,482.83  104.29   
 Open  30,627.47  144.64   
 Daily R1  30,638.17  10.70   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  30,674.28  36.11   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R2  30,741.76  67.48   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the High.
 Monthly R1  30,753.03  11.26   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  31,052.46  299.43   
 Monthly R2  31,282.16  229.71   

Monday 1/4/20. Year-end Review and Forecast to 2024

Here's the 2021 market performance review and forecast for the years 2021 to 2031, presented in a slider format. Keep in mind that the forecast is rarely accurate but some years it does well. To look at prior predictions, click this link. I'll update the charts there shortly.

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I don't discuss my portfolio nor the securities I own because I don't want to be accused of promoting them. However, I'm going to make an exception because some of what I have to say may help you trade or invest better. That's especially true if you're an old-timer (retired).

An article in the September 2005 issue of Active Trader magazine discussed an accounting firm that handled the tax returns for over 1,000 stock traders. In 2004, 36% of the traders showed a profit and just 4% made over $50,000. If you struggled to make money this year, or struggled to beat the averages, then you're not alone.

Back in the 2008 bear market, the Dow industrials, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 lost between 34% and 42%. I beat them but still lost 15%. That bear market taught me that I needed to diversify more.

As of 12/31/2020, I own 23 securities, split between 6 exchange traded funds and 17 stocks. You need only 8 stocks for good diversification, but I don't mind running my own mutual fund. If figure if Fidelity Magellan can hold 75 issues, I can own 30.

Toward the end of each year I focus on positioning the portfolio for the coming year (but my computer program evaluates my holdings against the S&P 500 index daily and I make changes periodically). I'm looking to reduce my holdings of under-performing securities and adding to existing ones or buying new stocks/ETFs. Sixty-five percent of the issues I own are beating the performance of the S&P 500 over the last 6 months. I keep track of that because my goal is to beat the market.

In 2018, I decided to take the tax hit and started selling my high profit but slow growers. I sold several utility stocks, for example. Right now, I own Evergy (EVRG) which pays a 10% dividend. If you look up the stock on Yahoo, you'll see the it has a dividend rate of just below 4%. How can I make 10% when it pays only 4%? Because I bought the stock just 4 days after it bottomed in the 2009 bear market for $11.58 (pre-merger) and the dividend has increased over the years. The stock is selling at $55 now. So not only do I own a high dividend paying stock, but I can bask in the capital gains, too.

A 10% return helps pay for living expenses and it beats what banks and money market funds pay on their holdings. Plus there's the possibility of capital gains (or losses).

Compare that return to IGV, "iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF." I own that, too. In 2020, it made 51.9% and that's without counting dividends. EVRG dropped almost 13% in 2020 (including dividends). Do I hold a stock with a 10% (almost) guaranteed payout plus capital gains/losses or buy something like IGV and hope for another big gain? The answer to that is yours (and mine).

Back to IGV. Look at that ETF on the weekly or monthly scale and you'll see that it has been trending higher since near the end of the bear market in early 2008-2009. Back then it was trading below $26. Today, the fund sells for $354. That's a huge long-term gain (I love the steady upward trend) and with a one-year gain of 52%, why should I be an active trader? Why not just buy and hold IGV and use dividends from EVRG to pay for living expenses? I can live life, do what I want, and collect my paycheck without worrying about selling by day's end (as in day trading).

Of course, it's not that easy, is it? Look at IGV from 2001 to 2009. The thing went almost nowhere. If I saw it lying on the side of the road, I'd want to give it CPR.

As the market rises to nose-bleed levels, I steer my buying toward ETFs to avoid single-stock exposure. In other words, a stock can drop 66% overnight because of an earnings miss or some financial shenanigans, but you likely won't see that happen in most (long, non-leveraged) ETFs. When the markets are cheaper, or if they dip, then I jump in and buy selective stocks I've been watching.

I've been itching to sell some of my holdings to rebalance my portfolio, but it worries me if the predictions for this year turn out to be true: It's going to be a tough year to make money. But with the COVID-19 recovery on the way, who knows? I'm hoping the markets and the world economies will surprise and make a good comeback. I hope to be positioned to grab my share of the winnings.

Let me be clear. I'm not suggesting or hoping you'll buy EVRG or IGV. Rather, they could drop this year. Do your own research and find securities that work for you and boost the performance of your portfolio.

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Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AYI, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AIG, ADM, ADSK, AVA, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BIO, BKH, BRC, BRKS, CBT, CHS, CIEN, CMCO, CLR, CLGX, CSGS, D, DRQ, DTE, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FMC, FDP, IT, GPN, GES, HSY, DHI, IDXX, INTC, IPI, IVC, NVTA, K, KLIC, LAWS, LXU, M, MA, MTRX, MDC, MOS, CNR, NEE, PDCO, PRFT, RGS, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, SUM, TPX, TXN, TMO, TOL, RIG, VRTX, WERN, WMB, WWW, IHI, IHE, DDM, BOTZ, IHF, EWC, EWH, EWW, EWL, EWT, THD, DBA, ILF, SSO, XLB, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/1/21. Holiday Site Support

Picture of a lizard

Friday is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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