Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21
As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21

 

March 2021 Headlines

Archives


Wednesday 3/31/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Several days ago, the indicator signaled a bullish move by turning green. The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows that.

Look at the indicator line, though. It's the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. It's heading lower. That direction can change for up to a week, so the downtrend can be misleading.

Even so, the downward move is an indication of a weakening general market.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 14% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 88% on 04/01/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 42% on 04/03/2020.

Both the red and blue lines are bullish this week compared to last week. If you compared the red line with the black one, you can see that the shapes are similar. That means the red/blue lines don't add any value.

However, you do see divergence occasionally where the indicator lines will go one way (like down) and the index will go the other way (up). You can see that in the red line where the current line is far below the red's peak set in mid March. The index is near the top of the scale, though. So there's something going on. Maybe stealth weakness...

Combined, the two charts are bullish if taken at face value. The CPI chart might be warning of weakness and this chart is also showing caution.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 83 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APOG, AAPL, ARCB, AWI, ADP, BSET, CBT, COG, CALM, CAL, CE, CENX, CRL, CHD, CGNX, CAG, CONN, CSOD, DVN, EXP, EMR, EOG, EL, RE, FLEX, GE, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HTLD, HL, HD, HURC, INFN, JBLU, KBH, K, KMB, KLIC, RAMP, MCHX, MLM, MGEE, NEU, PATK, PPG, KWR, DGX, SAIA, SEE, SMTC, SR, SUM, TPX, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMC, WSO, WMB, WSM, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IYH, SLV, EWK, EWP, TUR, IBB, DBA, PJP, XLY, GLD, XRT, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/30/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Vertex Pharmaceutical

The index climbed by 0.3% or 98.49 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 617 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 499 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/388 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Vertex Pharmaceutical: VRTX (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, AES, AA, ADS, AYX, AEL, AMWD, ANIK, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, BSET, BZH, BBY, BAH, BRC, BLDR, BG, COG, CACI, CNP, CF, CHKP, CHD, CNO, CCRN, CW, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EFX, EQT, RE, FB, FAST, FLIR, FLS, GES, HAYN, HTLD, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, TILE, K, KFRC, KMB, LHX, LAWS, LEG, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NTGR, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PNW, PPG, PEG, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SLGN, SCS, TOL, TRV, UPS, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, WERN, WLK, WMB, IHF, EWH, EZA, XRT, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,635.31    
 Monthly S1  31,403.34  1,768.03   
 Weekly S2  31,753.12  349.78   
 Monthly Pivot  32,315.56  562.44   
 Weekly S1  32,462.24  146.68   
 Daily S2  32,757.96  295.72   
 Weekly Pivot  32,780.54  22.57   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  32,905.13  124.59   
 Daily S1  32,964.67  59.54   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,040.31  75.64   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,082.07  41.76   
 Open  33,087.55  5.48   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  33,111.83  24.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,123.82  11.99   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,171.37  47.55   
 High  33,259.00  87.63   
 Daily R1  33,318.54  59.54   
 Daily R2  33,465.70  147.17   
 Weekly R1  33,489.66  23.96   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  33,807.96  318.29   
 Monthly R1  34,083.59  275.63   
 Monthly R2  34,995.81  912.22   

Monday 3/29/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

The red lines outline a chart pattern I discussed back in February. It's called an ascending broadening wedge.

In that pattern, both trendlines slope upward but they diverge, like that shown on the chart.

What's useful in the pattern is a partial rise or decline. That's when price leaves one of the trendlines, heading toward the other one, but the stock doesn't make it. Rather, the trend reverses and makes an immediate breakout.

This chart shows a partial rise which appears to have failed. I show the partial rise at A. Notice that price dropped after A (as it should in a partial rise), but then rebounded. That rebound probably disqualifies the partial rise. We'll have to wait and see if that's really the case, because if the stock were to drop and breakout downward, then we could say that the partial rise was accurate.

However, it looks as if price is going to continue moving higher, so that's my guess for the next week.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a sign.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 103.23 points.
Tuesday: Down 308.05 points.
Wednesday: Down 3.09 points.
Thursday: Up 199.42 points.
Friday: Up 453.4 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 444.91 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 76.51 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 61.44 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 33,227.78 on 03/18/2021.
     10.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     7.3% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     6.0% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 3,983.87 on 03/17/2021.
     8.5% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,533  32,803  32,951  33,221  33,369 
Weekly  31,720  32,397  32,748  33,424  33,775 
Monthly  29,602  31,338  32,283  34,018  34,963 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,896  3,935  3,957  3,996  4,018 
Weekly  3,811  3,893  3,935  4,017  4,060 
Monthly  3,633  3,804  3,894  4,064  4,154 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,785  12,962  13,056  13,233  13,326 
Weekly  12,458  12,798  13,127  13,467  13,796 
Monthly  11,738  12,438  13,098  13,798  14,458 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 206 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, AEIS, AES, APD, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, APOG, ARCB, AWI, ARW, BMI, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CX, CENX, CF, CRL, CNA, CNO, CL, CONN, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CW, DECK, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EOG, EFX, EQT, FLIR, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, GME, GPS, GE, GPN, GFF, GES, HBI, HAYN, HSII, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, TILE, IPI, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KMT, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NCR, NJR, NEU, NI, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PPG, PFG, PRU, RL, RJF, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SIGI, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, TGT, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, V, WERN, WLK, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLF, XHB, XRT, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Apparel4. Securities Brokerage
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Apparel
6. Securities Brokerage6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Petroleum (Integrated)7. Shoe
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Computers and Peripherals
9. Electronics9. Electronics
10. Advertising10. Petroleum (Integrated)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Healthcare Information
51. Medical Supplies51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Medical Supplies
55. Healthcare Information55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (East)
57. E-Commerce57. E-Commerce
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/26/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, AES, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMWD, APA, APOG, ARCB, ADSK, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CENX, CF, CNO, CSOD, COST, CCRN, CCK, CW, DHR, DFS, ^DJI, EXP, EIX, FDX, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GME, GPN, GOOGL, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HP, DHI, HUBG, HURC, INOV, NSP, IBP, TILE, INTU, NVTA, KBH, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LOW, LXU, MTSI, M, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NKE, OXY, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PPG, PFG, PRU, PHM, RMBS, RLI, RCKY, ROG, ROST, CRM, SLB, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCCO, STMP, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TER, TOL, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYE, ITB, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IGV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EPP, EWP, TUR, QLD, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, XLY, GLD, XHB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 4.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 21 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Electric Utility (East)
ATSGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/09/202103/19/2021Air Transport
AELPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Insurance (Life)
AMWDPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Building Materials
ARCBPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CFPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Chemical (Basic)
EXPPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Cement and Aggregates
FLSPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Machinery
FCXPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
FDPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/12/202103/19/2021Food Processing
GMEPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Retail (Special Lines)
HAYNPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Building Materials
HSIIPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Human Resources
HURCPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Machinery
INCYBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/08/202103/25/2021Drug
TILEPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
LAWSPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Metal Fabricating
NFLXBroadening bottom      03/11/202103/25/2021Internet
NEETriangle, symmetrical      03/01/202103/25/2021Electric Utility (East)
OXMPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Apparel
PKEPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Chemical (Specialty)
PATKPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Retail Building Supply
PCGHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/27/202103/23/2021Electric Utility (West)
SLBScallop, ascending and inverted      01/27/202103/25/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SOBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/16/202003/24/2021Electric Utility (East)
VFCTriangle, descending      03/04/202103/25/2021Apparel
VLOPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
WLKPipe top      03/08/202103/15/2021Chemical (Basic)

 

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Thursday 3/25/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.0% or -265.81 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 64 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.7% on 28 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 36 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/373 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB, the composite formed a double top chart pattern. It confirmed as valid when price closed below C, the lowest valley between peaks AB.

As the chart shows, price dropped but pulled back to the breakout price and continued rising to D. Then the composite made a frightening drop to end the day 2% below the prior close.

The strength of this drop suggests the move lower will continue tomorrow (Thursday), at least for a time. That assessment agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ADBE, AES, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AEL, AXP, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CLS, CNC, CF, CHKP, CNA, CNO, CSOD, COTY, CR, CTS, CW, DFS, DOV, EXP, EOG, EL, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FTNT, FCX, GME, GPN, GOOGL, GES, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HP, HOLX, HURC, INOV, NSP, INTC, TILE, IPG, KFRC, LH, LAWS, LEG, LEN, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MSFT, NBR, ^IXIC, NWL, NEU, NKE, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PETS, PGR, PRU, DGX, RLI, ROG, CRM, SAIC, SIGI, SCCO, STMP, SCS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, TRV, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, V, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, IEZ, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, QLD, PEJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, MXI, XLY, XRT, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,399.95    
 Monthly S1  12,180.92  780.97   
 Weekly S2  12,626.09  445.17   
 Daily S2  12,740.48  114.39   
 Weekly S1  12,793.99  53.51   
 Daily S1  12,851.19  57.20   
 Low  12,961.35  110.16   
 Close  12,961.89  0.54   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,072.05  110.16   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,088.01  15.96   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,127.13  39.13   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,166.26  39.13   
 Monthly Pivot  13,178.02  11.76   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  13,182.76  4.74   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  13,207.35  24.59   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  13,289.24  81.89   
 High  13,292.92  3.68   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  13,375.25  82.33   
 Daily R2  13,403.62  28.37   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  13,788.61  384.99   
 Monthly R1  13,958.99  170.38   
 Monthly R2  14,956.09  997.10   

Wednesday 3/24/21. Indicators Turning Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows. The indicator says it turned bearish 3 days ago (two days from Wednesday), but yesterday's post shows it was still bullish.

In other words, the signal can change for up to a week.

Notice that the CPI line at the bottom of the chart is at or close to 0. It's going to be hard to change this into a bullish signal over the next 7 days.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 9%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 95% on 03/25/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 9%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 42% on 04/03/2020.

Last week I highlighted how steep the red line shot higher. This week, it's the reverse with the red line taking a nice tumble.

If you look at the percentages, they echo that drop, from 9% bearish to 16%. Ouch!

So this chart is bearish and so is the CPI chart. It suggests a continued deterioration of the markets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 201 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AES, AA, ALL, AEL, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CE, CLS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CNO, CSOD, COTY, CTS, CW, XRAY, DFS, DRQ, EXP, RE, FDX, FIS, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FRD, GME, GPN, GES, HSC, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HP, HOLX, JBHT, HURC, NSP, IBP, INTC, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KBH, K, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LB, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LXU, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NWL, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NKE, OLN, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PRFT, PPG, PRU, RJF, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROG, SLB, SIGI, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SUM, TPR, TFX, TDC, TOL, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VFC, VLO, VRTX, V, WRB, WLK, WEX, XLNX, IYE, IDU, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/23/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.3% or 103.23 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1115 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 617 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 498 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/387 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Volt Information Sciences: VOL (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, AA, AMED, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, BCPC, BOOT, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CE, CF, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CGNX, CLGX, CSOD, COST, CR, CREE, CTS, DECK, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJT, BOOM, WIRE, EPAM, FFIV, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FORM, GME, GES, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HL, HP, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, ILMN, INFN, IPG, NVTA, KALU, KMB, KSS, LB, LAMR, LXU, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MLHR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NXGN, NI, NVDA, OLN, OXM, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PICO, PPG, PINC, PG, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SLB, SMG, SEE, SRE, SKX, STMP, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TXN, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, WAT, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWP, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,488.59    
 Monthly S1  31,109.89  1,621.31   
 Weekly S2  32,098.64  988.75   
 Monthly Pivot  32,168.84  70.20   
 Daily S2  32,386.87  218.04   
 Weekly S1  32,414.92  28.05   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  32,512.53  97.61   
 Daily S1  32,559.04  46.51   
 Open  32,601.82  42.78   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,626.30  24.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,661.44  35.14   
 Daily Pivot  32,684.69  23.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,696.58  11.89   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  32,731.20  34.62   
 High  32,810.35  79.15   
 Weekly Pivot  32,821.35  11.00   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  32,856.86  35.50   
 Daily R2  32,982.51  125.66   
 Weekly R1  33,137.63  155.12   
 Weekly R2  33,544.06  406.43   
 Monthly R1  33,790.14  246.09   
 Monthly R2  34,849.09  1,058.94   

Monday 3/22/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Highlighted isn't a chart pattern. Rather, it's just squiggles on the price chart. Do you know why?

Because the squiggles haven't confirmed as a valid chart pattern yet. If price rises to close above the red line at A, then it would qualify as a head-and-shoulders bottom.

LS is the left shoulder, RS is the right one. Between them is a head which sticks out lower than the two shoulders. Breakouts are always upward from a head-and-shoulders bottom.

This one is a nice looking one, too, because the shoulders bottom near the same price and the neckline (the red line) is horizontal.

Of course, the right shoulder hasn't seen price turn upward yet. If it continues lower, then forget about a head-and-shoulders. It'll remain squiggles on the price chart.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 174.82 points.
Tuesday: Down 127.51 points.
Wednesday: Up 189.42 points.
Thursday: Down 153.07 points.
Friday: Down 234.33 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 150.67 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 104.62 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 30.24 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.8% down from the high of 33,227.78 on 03/18/2021.
     9.3% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     6.8% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     6.6% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.8% down from the high of 3,983.87 on 03/17/2021.
     6.8% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,311  32,469  32,664  32,823  33,017 
Weekly  32,064  32,346  32,787  33,069  33,510 
Monthly  29,454  31,041  32,134  33,721  34,815 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,867  3,890  3,910  3,933  3,953 
Weekly  3,831  3,872  3,928  3,969  4,025 
Monthly  3,613  3,763  3,873  4,024  4,134 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,956  13,086  13,169  13,299  13,382 
Weekly  12,711  12,963  13,292  13,544  13,873 
Monthly  11,484  12,350  13,262  14,128  15,041 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, ALRM, AMED, AEO, AXP, AFG, AMGN, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ATR, ARW, ADSK, BSET, BBBY, BAH, EPAY, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CONN, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CTS, CMI, BOOM, WIRE, RE, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FWRD, FCX, GPRO, HBI, HSC, HQY, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, ILMN, INFN, NVTA, JNJ, KSS, LAMR, LDOS, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MA, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, NOC, NVDA, OGE, PANW, PAYX, PYPL, PPG, PINC, PG, RCKY, ROG, RES, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SRE, SCCO, SWN, STMP, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TFX, TPX, TXN, TJX, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, WSO, WDAY, XLNX, IYE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWW, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Securities Brokerage4. Apparel
5. Apparel5. Securities Brokerage
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Petroleum (Integrated)
7. Shoe7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
8. Computers and Peripherals8. Shoe
9. Electronics9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Petroleum (Integrated)10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Healthcare Information50. Healthcare Information
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Electric Utility (West)
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Medical Supplies54. Medical Supplies
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. E-Commerce57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/19/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ADBE, AMD, AES, APD, ALRM, AMED, AEO, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ADSK, AVNT, BZH, BBBY, BKH, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CNC, CENX, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, COST, CREE, CMI, ^DJT, BOOM, EXC, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GIS, HIG, HQY, HL, HELE, HSY, HOLX, HD, IEX, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPI, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KALU, K, KFRC, KSS, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MA, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, ^IXIC, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEE, NVDA, OLN, PYPL, PPG, PPL, RGS, RLI, ROG, RES, SAIA, SMG, SMTC, NOW, SO, STMP, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TXN, TJX, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, V, WMT, WERN, WU, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWZ, EWJ, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XRT, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMEDPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Medical Services
AMWDBroadening top      02/10/202103/12/2021Building Materials
BGBroadening top      02/16/202103/12/2021Food Processing
CIENPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Telecom. Equipment
CLNEPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
CCKTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/202103/18/2021Packaging and Container
BOOMHorn top      02/22/202103/08/2021Metal Fabricating
FICOPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021IT Services
GPROFlag, high and tight      02/23/202103/18/2021Electronics
HLPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
INFNPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Telecom. Equipment
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      02/23/202103/12/2021Advertising
MDCAPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Advertising
MDTTriangle, ascending      01/20/202103/18/2021Medical Supplies
MURDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/08/202103/12/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
NTGRPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Telecom. Equipment
NJRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/25/202103/18/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
RESPipe top      03/01/202103/08/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMGPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Chemical (Basic)
TXNPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Semiconductor
TZOOPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Internet
WLKDiamond top      03/08/202103/17/2021Chemical (Basic)
WDAYPipe bottom      03/01/202103/08/2021Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 3/18/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 53.63 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 617 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 392 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 225 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 211/372 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I look at a chart, my eye gets drawn to the straight lines. Rather, the minor highs or lows when connected, form a trendline. I drew the red line first because the touches are so close and it's easy for my eye to connect the minor lows.

Then I took a wider view and drew the green line followed by the blue one.

Notice that all three lines slope upward and they are almost parallel. Do you know what that means?

I don't!

Actually, it reminds me of Andrew's pitchfork, where you pick three major turns and it constructs what looks like a three-tine pitchfork. The thinking with the tool is that price will stall or reverse at one of the tines.

Price has reached the red line (even though I haven't extended it that far) and has turned lower. It could bounce off the lower trendline or it might resume the upward move. The eventual direction is hard to tell.

My guess is it'll bounce off the green line and maybe float between the red and green lines tomorrow (Thursday). The futures market, before the stock market opens, may point the way.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, ADS, AMED, AEE, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BECN, BZH, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BBW, CBT, COG, CLS, CNC, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CAG, COST, CREE, DDS, ^DJI, D, BOOM, WIRE, EVH, EXC, FICO, FFG, FLEX, FORM, GE, GGG, EVRG, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSIC, HOLX, DHI, HOV, HUBG, IDA, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPI, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, KBH, LB, LEN, MHO, MTSI, MRO, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NOC, NVDA, PYPL, PICO, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PG, PRU, PHM, RL, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SO, LUV, SR, STMP, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TJX, TOL, TZOO, SLCA, UNM, V, VC, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IAI, ITB, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWJ, EZA, EWP, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,587.72    
 Weekly S2  12,351.63  763.91   
 Monthly S1  12,556.46  204.83   
 Weekly S1  12,938.41  381.95   
 Daily S2  13,141.99  203.57   
 Weekly Pivot  13,186.02  44.03   
 Low  13,272.69  86.67   
 Daily S1  13,333.59  60.90   
 Open  13,336.91  3.32   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  13,365.79  28.88   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,395.81  30.02   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,433.84  38.03   
 Daily Pivot  13,464.30  30.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,471.88  7.58   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,525.20  53.32   
 High  13,595.00  69.80   
 Daily R1  13,655.90  60.90   
 Weekly R1  13,772.80  116.90   
 Daily R2  13,786.61  13.80   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  14,020.41  233.80   
 Monthly R1  14,334.53  314.12   
 Monthly R2  15,143.86  809.33   

Wednesday 3/17/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is still green, indicating the market remains bullish. However, look at the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart. That's the CPI line. It's heading lower.

The direction of that line can change quickly enough, as the rest of the chart shows. Keep in mind that the indicator can change for up to a week, but the downward trend isn't promising. It's showing a bearish divergence (the index is rising but the CPI is falling).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 9% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 13%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines moved higher this week compared to last week, but look at the red line. From the low at A, it has soared to B in a steep move upward. I'm tempted to write that I've never seen it so steep, but a quick look to the left shows that it has happened before. Look at the run up to the June peak, as an example. That June peak is a cautionary tale. The red line might drop just as quickly as it went up. And that means a sharp drop in the index.

The CPI line in the prior chart is heading lower, so that's bearish. The red line on this chart shows a sharp move up, but what goes up must come down (normally, that is. It could be on the way to the moon or Scotty could beam it up). Together, I think the news isn't good. I expect the index to retrace soon, so lookout below.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, AMED, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ASH, ADSK, BZH, BERY, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, COST, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CMI, BOOM, EL, XOM, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FCX, GME, GE, GIS, GPRO, HQY, HL, HOLX, HON, ILMN, INFN, IBP, INTC, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, LZB, LRCX, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MRO, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MLHR, NTGR, NEE, NI, NVDA, OXY, OXM, PKG, PANW, PKE, PYPL, PHM, RL, RMBS, ROK, ROG, RES, SAIA, SMG, LUV, SWX, SR, STMP, SSYS, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TXN, TMO, TJX, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VFC, VMC, WLK, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWJ, EZA, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XAR, XLU, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/16/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.5% or 174.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 940 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 509 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 431 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 223/386 or 57.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teradyne: TER (actual trade) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AYX, AEP, ANIK, ANTM, ARW, ATO, AXS, BERY, BKH, CPB, CNP, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CNO, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, COTY, CW, DVN, ^DJT, EIX, EOG, EQT, EVH, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FLIR, FTNT, FRD, GME, GPS, GILD, GPN, GPRO, EVRG, HE, HL, HD, DHI, IDA, ILMN, INOV, NSP, IPG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KLIC, LEN, LLY, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, MYGN, NWL, NI, JWN, NWPX, OGE, PKG, PETS, PNW, PPL, PEG, PHM, RGS, REV, SAIA, SMG, TECH, TOL, RIG, TZOO, UPS, WRB, WERN, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, IHI, IAT, IYZ, EWC, EWM, PBE, PEJ, IXC, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,852.31    
 Weekly S2  31,138.47  1,286.16   
 Monthly S1  31,402.89  264.41   
 Weekly S1  32,045.97  643.08   
 Monthly Pivot  32,098.10  52.14   
 Weekly Pivot  32,419.64  321.54   
 Daily S2  32,508.55  88.91   
 Low  32,629.75  121.20   
 Daily S1  32,731.01  101.26   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,761.02  30.02   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  32,798.84  37.82   
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,801.57  2.73   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,842.13  40.55   
 Daily Pivot  32,852.20  10.08   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,953.46  101.26   
 High  32,973.40  19.94   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,074.66  101.26   
 Daily R2  33,195.85  121.20   
 Weekly R1  33,327.14  131.29   
 Monthly R1  33,648.68  321.54   
 Weekly R2  33,700.81  52.14   
 Monthly R2  34,343.89  643.08   

Monday 3/15/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

On the far left is a pattern highlighted by yellow (or brown) lines, C. The top line slopes upward and the bottom one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge. You can't tell from this picture if it's a broadening top or bottom because I can't see the inbound price trend.

The middle top peak, to the lower right of the letter C, is farther from the trendline than I like to see, but few patterns are perfect.

Moving on to the right, we see the index climbing and bounded on the top by a red trendline. Price can't pierce that line except in the last two days, at A.

It might be hard to see, but the industrials have pierced the line. That's not a deal breaker on a downward move (meaning it's not a guarantee that price will continue rising). However, it's a sign of strength.

The 2B pattern is one where price rises above a prior peak but then drops. Let's set that aside, but keep it in mind.

Let's look at B, the green line. Notice that the current price (A) has moved well above the prior peak (B, at the green line). Such a big move suggests it's not a 2B pattern after all (rather, it's unlikely).

Price might retrace for a week or so, but the trend I think is upward over the next 2 weeks. Having written that, it also looks like it's overdue for a retrace, so expect a dip before a resumption of the upward move.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of two lizards fighting.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 306.14 points.
Tuesday: Up 30.3 points.
Wednesday: Up 464.28 points.
Thursday: Up 188.57 points.
Friday: Up 293.05 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1282.34 points or 4.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 399.71 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 101.4 points or 2.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.0% down from the high of 32,793.32 on 03/12/2021.
     9.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     6.0% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     7.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 3,960.27 on 03/11/2021.
     7.7% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,347  32,563  32,678  32,894  33,009 
Weekly  31,080  31,929  32,361  33,211  33,643 
Monthly  29,794  31,286  32,040  33,532  34,286 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,905  3,924  3,935  3,954  3,964 
Weekly  3,767  3,855  3,908  3,996  4,049 
Monthly  3,639  3,791  3,876  4,028  4,113 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,102  13,211  13,268  13,377  13,434 
Weekly  12,283  12,802  13,118  13,636  13,952 
Monthly  11,519  12,420  13,297  14,198  15,075 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACIW, AYI, AJRD, AES, AKAM, ALKS, AYX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, ATR, ADM, ARW, ATO, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRC, COG, CNP, CF, CHS, CLNE, CLX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, COST, COTY, CW, ^DJT, ^DJI, EOG, EQT, EL, EZPW, FIS, FEYE, FLIR, FTNT, GPS, GIS, GILD, GPN, GFF, THG, HTLD, DHI, INOV, KBH, KMT, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, LOW, LXU, MHO, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, NTGR, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OGE, ORI, PAYX, PETS, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, ROG, SMG, SHW, LUV, SWX, SWN, TPX, TOL, TRV, VMI, VRSN, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, ITB, DDM, IAT, IYZ, IGE, EWO, EWC, EWU, IEV, MXI, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Apparel4. Apparel
5. Securities Brokerage5. Securities Brokerage
6. Petroleum (Integrated)6. Shoe
7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. Shoe8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Healthcare Information50. Medical Supplies
51. Electric Utility (West)51. Internet
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Retail Building Supply
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Medical Supplies54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. E-Commerce58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ALK, AA, ALKS, AEP, AEL, ANIK, ANTM, ARW, ATO, BERY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, CBT, COG, CACI, CNP, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EFX, EXPD, FDX, FLEX, FLIR, FTNT, GE, GILD, GPN, GFF, DHI, INFN, INOV, IVC, NVTA, KBH, KLIC, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEN, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MOS, NKE, NI, NWPX, OXY, OGE, PANW, PETS, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, REV, ROST, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SWX, SXI, SSYS, TMO, TOL, TREX, UPS, WU, WLK, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, ITB, DDM, FXI, IYZ, IGE, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWD, THD, PPA, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLB, SPY, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTNBroadening top      02/04/202103/11/2021Telecom. Equipment
AAFlag, high and tight      01/27/202103/11/2021Aerospace/Defense
AEPPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Electric Utility (Central)
AVYBroadening top      02/11/202103/11/2021Packaging and Container
BKHPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Electric Utility (West)
BACup with handle      12/07/202003/09/2021Aerospace/Defense
BBWFlag, high and tight      01/11/202103/10/2021Retail (Special Lines)
CENXFlag, high and tight      01/27/202103/11/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHSPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Apparel
CMTLPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Telecom. Equipment
CONNPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Retail (Special Lines)
CLRFlag, high and tight      01/04/202103/11/2021Petroleum (Producing)
CSGSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/22/202103/05/2021IT Services
EFXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/26/202103/05/2021Information Services
ITTriple bottom      02/16/202103/05/2021IT Services
HLITHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/03/202103/05/2021Telecom. Equipment
HSYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/07/202003/11/2021Food Processing
DHIPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
IEXTriangle, ascending      01/29/202103/11/2021Machinery
IVCDead-cat bounce      03/11/202103/11/2021Medical Supplies
KBHPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
LENPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
LMTDiamond top      02/12/202103/11/2021Aerospace/Defense
MHOPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
NCRBroadening bottom      02/12/202103/08/2021IT Services
NKEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/23/202103/05/2021Shoe
PNWPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Electric Utility (West)
PHMPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
TOLPipe bottom      02/22/202103/01/2021Homebuilding
RIGFlag, high and tight      01/22/202103/11/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

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Thursday 3/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -4.99 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 680 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 386 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/371 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The pattern at ABC is an ugly double bottom. Bottoms A and B aren't 5% apart, but intraday, I allow exceptions. Anyway, the pattern confirms when price closes above the peak between the two bottoms. I show that as the green line, C.

Recently, price has dropped following a down-sloping channel. I show that with the two down-sloping red lines. My guess, based on the spike above the channel before it began, is a downward move. An upward spike can translate into a downward move of a similar extent. I don't know if that's true or not, but it's based on the measure rule for trendlines (a move above the line means a similar drop).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 153 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ADBE, ALB, AA, ALKS, AEP, AEL, AMN, ANIK, ANTM, ARCB, ARW, AIZ, ATO, AVA, AXS, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BA, BOOT, BBW, CALM, CPB, CNP, CRL, CHS, CLNE, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, DHR, DFS, DOV, DTE, EXP, EFX, RE, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FTNT, GME, GPS, GILD, GPRO, GFF, GES, THG, HSY, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, INOV, INTU, KBH, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LLY, L, LXU, MHO, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MOS, NFG, NTAP, JWN, NWPX, OGE, PANW, PKE, PETS, PNW, POR, PPG, PRU, PEG, PHM, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SLB, SIGI, NOW, SO, SWN, SR, TDOC, TFX, TER, TJX, TOL, RIG, TRV, TG, VRSN, WU, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, FXI, ICF, IGV, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWY, EWL, THD, TUR, PBE, MXI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,435.60    
 Weekly S2  11,818.12  382.53   
 Monthly S1  12,252.21  434.09   
 Weekly S1  12,443.48  191.26   
 Daily S2  12,885.46  441.98   
 Daily S1  12,977.14  91.69   
 Weekly Pivot  13,022.40  45.26   
 Low  13,035.44  13.04   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  13,068.83  33.39   
 Daily Pivot  13,127.13  58.30   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,127.76  0.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,156.28  28.52   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,184.79  28.52   
 Monthly Pivot  13,213.67  28.88   
 Daily R1  13,218.81  5.15   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  13,234.73  15.92   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  13,277.11  42.38   
 Daily R2  13,368.80  91.69   
 Weekly R1  13,647.76  278.96   
 Monthly R1  14,030.28  382.53   
 Weekly R2  14,226.68  196.40   
 Monthly R2  14,991.74  765.05   

Wednesday 3/10/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator) has issued a bullish buy signal. According to the chart, it happened 3 days ago, but because the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, it may have happened more recently.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 13% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 13% on 03/09/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 10% on 02/24/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Both lines show improvement this week with the red indicator line suggesting bullish divergence with the index. That's not quite true because the index is rising now and could form a peak, changing divergence into convergence.

Both charts are bullish this week. Enough said.

$ $ $

On the home front, I finished patching the insulation holes I found on my house and even painted the wood and some of the siding. My neighbor and I bought two sheets of drywall, too, so I can hang that in the coming days. I also order parts to fix my broken garage door opener. Another week or two and I might be back to normal.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 190 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, AEP, AMN, ANIK, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, BAX, BZH, BIO, BKH, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CE, CNP, CHS, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CR, CRH, CW, DHR, XRAY, DOV, EMN, EMR, EPAM, EVH, EZPW, FB, FDS, FICO, FOE, FE, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FORM, GME, IT, GD, GILD, GPRO, HSC, HE, HSII, HNI, DHI, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INOV, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LEN, LLY, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MAN, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDCA, MU, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NWL, NWPX, NVDA, OGE, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PICO, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, ROG, ROST, SLB, SEE, SEIC, NOW, STMP, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, VEEV, VC, WWW, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IGV, SOXX, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, TUR, QLD, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLI, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! LUV

The index climbed by 1.0% or 306.14 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 424 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 223 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 201 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 222/385 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwest Airlines: LUV (actual trade).

$ $ $

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

On Monday, I planned to insulate my water pipes so they would be less likely to burst. I took a mirror and light and peered into the cavity where the pipes are and looked down (using the mirror). I saw daylight. I couldn't believe it!

In other words, the pipes were open to the outside air. I was wondering why I was getting such a big draft when I punched through the kitchen wall, and I remember seeing the vapor barrier moving in and out as the wind blew.

From the outside, the opening is part of a transition between brick and the paneling as the picture shows. I removed the board which slides under the flashing and lays on top of the brick.

What's left is a hole. The hole goes in about the width of a 2x4 and then vertical. The vertical move is about 26" or so. The top of that is the back of the cavity where my pipes are located in the kitchen.

I spent 7 hours on diagnosing this, buying wood, and fixing it, but it got too dark to complete the job.

As I was about to call it a night, I tried to open my garage door. It went up halfway and then stopped. The motor was still spinning, trying to lift the door, but the door was stuck. My guess is the nylon gear in the door opener is stripped. This happened once before. I haven't checked on that, yet. It could be the garage door is pinched on its rise (but I can close it manually).

The mechanism is halfway to opening so I can't open the door more than that. And that means I can't get my car out. Sigh.

If trouble really comes in threes, then I wonder what comes next. 1) Cold snap/3 burst pipes. 2) Garage door opener breaks. 3) ?

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AEIS, AFL, AEL, ANTM, BECN, BBBY, BIG, CAL, CF, CHS, CMCO, CAG, COST, CSGS, XRAY, DOV, FB, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FLS, FCX, GME, HBI, THG, HIG, HE, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, IPG, KMT, LLY, LNC, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRN, MUR, CNR, NOC, OMC, OXM, PKE, POR, PRU, RLI, CRM, SMG, SEE, SLGN, SCS, SUM, TECH, TPX, TSCO, RIG, TG, UPS, UNM, VLO, WWW, IYM, ITB, FXI, ICF, IAT, IYF, EEM, EWQ, EIS, EWY, EWT, TUR, PPA, PBE, ILF, XLF, XLI, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,281.01    
 Weekly S2  30,218.63  937.61   
 Monthly S1  30,541.73  323.10   
 Weekly S1  31,010.53  468.81   
 Daily S2  31,184.99  174.45   
 Monthly Pivot  31,275.68  90.70   
 Weekly Pivot  31,339.44  63.75   
 Daily S1  31,493.71  154.28   
 Open  31,512.15  18.44   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  31,512.15  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,755.06  242.91   
 Close  31,802.44  47.38   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  31,820.88  18.44   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,830.10  9.22   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,905.13  75.04   
 Daily R1  32,129.60  224.47   
 Weekly R1  32,131.34  1.74   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 High  32,148.04  16.70   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  32,456.77  308.73   
 Weekly R2  32,460.25  3.48   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  32,536.40  76.15   
 Monthly R2  33,270.35  733.96   

Monday 3/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

On this chart, I highlight a chart patterns called a broadening top (A).

That chart pattern has price following two trendlines. One slopes upward and the one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge.

The breakout from this pattern is upward 60% of the time.

Will this one breakout upward, too? Here's a hint: Look at point B. Notice how price has dropped and appears to be moving back up. It's too early to tell for sure, but B looks to me like a particle decline.

A partial decline appears in some patterns (only a few, on a regular basis, like your broadening patterns) when price leaves the top trendline, heading down. It drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An immediate upward breakout follows 72% of the time. An upward breakout looks like it's about to happen in this case, but only time will say if that's what happens.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz. It has a new feature (Main Form, Seasonality menu) called "Best Trading Time." This was inspired by Abe M. It allows you to ask the program, "What's the best time to buy if I want to make x% in y price bars?" (such as 5% in 10 bars or 100% in a year).

$ $ $

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 603.14 points.
Tuesday: Down 143.99 points.
Wednesday: Down 121.43 points.
Thursday: Down 345.95 points.
Friday: Up 572.16 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 563.93 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 272.19 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 30.79 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.6% down from the high of 32,009.64 on 02/24/2021.
     5.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     8.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     4.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 3,950.43 on 02/16/2021.
     4.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,468  30,982  31,281  31,795  32,095 
Weekly  30,117  30,806  31,237  31,927  32,358 
Monthly  29,179  30,338  31,174  32,332  33,168 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,686  3,764  3,808  3,886  3,929 
Weekly  3,635  3,739  3,827  3,930  4,018 
Monthly  3,611  3,727  3,839  3,954  4,066 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,209  12,564  12,753  13,109  13,297 
Weekly  11,769  12,344  12,973  13,549  14,177 
Monthly  11,386  12,153  13,164  13,931  14,942 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANIK, APA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BA, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EL, FEYE, FLEX, FCX, IT, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IVC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, RGS, ROG, SLGN, SWN, SRDX, TER, TXN, TSCO, RIG, TG, VEEV, WSO, WLK, WEX, XEL, IYM, IYC, IHE, FXI, IYZ, EWK, EEM, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, PPA, IEV, MXI, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Apparel
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Apparel4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Securities Brokerage5. Shoe
6. Shoe6. Petroleum (Producing)
7. Petroleum (Integrated)7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. Securities Brokerage
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Retail Building Supply
51. Internet51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Retail Building Supply52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. E-Commerce58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/5/21. Home Front Update. I Have Water!

Picture of the my broken pipes

No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today's activity went.

I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.

Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up. I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I'd cut earlier to make then 'square' and finished off the next burst pipe.

After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I'd made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with 1/4 turn things). All looked good.

Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.

However, my master bath faucet didn't work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn't change anything. I scratched my head over that.

Picture of the my broken pipes

I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze (inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).

I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.

In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.

All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!

I'd like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.

Mary Ann Binkowski (cousin who offered to help)
David Bulkowski (brother and sympathetic ear. Sent critical parts to fix my leaks)
Steve Murray (neighbor who has an air compressor which worked)
Phil Murphy (neighbor who has an air compressor which didn't work -- couldn't couple to my plumbing)
Ronda Palm (friend who lent a sympathetic ear and offer to help)
Rico (gave me a Christmas present of a case of water which I used first and another case a week or so ago. Both of which made this disaster survivable)
Larry Rivera (neighbor. I used him as a water source. Twice)
Mark Theriault (email contact and the first to offer help. He spent his own money to send me a part to fix the leak!)
Karen Wasserman (Production manager (editor) of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine who also offered to help)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

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Thursday 3/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.7% or -361.04 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 24 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.9% on 14 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 10 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 210/370 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/120 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Starting on the left, there's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that's in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better if it's more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).

What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That's a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4. Of course, I'm not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached 13,000.

On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I'm looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,195.90    
 Weekly S2  12,499.85  303.95   
 Monthly S1  12,596.83  96.98   
 Daily S2  12,744.33  147.50   
 Weekly S1  12,748.80  4.47   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  12,871.04  122.24   
 Low  12,995.07  124.03   
 Close  12,997.75  2.68   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,121.78  124.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,139.26  17.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,183.79  44.54   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,228.33  44.54   
 Daily R1  13,248.49  20.16   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  13,252.93  4.44   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  13,336.25  83.32   
 High  13,372.52  36.27   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  13,385.97  13.45   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  13,499.23  113.26   
 Weekly R1  13,501.88  2.65   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  13,786.90  285.02   
 Weekly R2  14,006.01  219.11   
 Monthly R2  14,576.04  570.03   

Wednesday 3/3/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red and green pair of vertical lines (far right on the chart) being so close to one another means a wicked whiplash turn. It's a sign of a strong down day followed by a strong push higher. It's interesting that the bearish signal wasn't wiped out by the bullish turn. Recall that any signal can be changed for up to a week before the concrete sets.

Right now, the indicator is bullish. If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, it looks as if the CPI has turned neutral (around 50).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 15% on 03/01/2021.
And the most was 97% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 10% on 02/24/2021.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

The two green lines show divergence. I mentioned this last week. The red line is climbing even as the index is falling.

The last chart was bullish and so is this one. So I expect the weakness in the markets to end soon.

However, we could form a head-and-shoulders top pattern with the February peak in the index being the head, the left shoulder is the January peak, and the right shoulder has yet to appear. If that interpretation is correct, then look for the index to drop before rising up to the right shoulder.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AFL, ALB, ALL, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BMI, BRKS, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CSOD, GLW, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FB, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FLIR, FORM, FCX, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HQY, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JCOM, KBAL, LZB, LLY, LXU, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MS, NFG, CNR, NXGN, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, RNG, RHI, ROST, SAIC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TJX, TSCO, TG, TREX, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WU, WWW, WDAY, XLNX, ZBRA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWD, QLD, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, XLY, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Rohm and Haas

The index climbed by 1.9% or 603.14 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 97 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 42 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 55 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 56.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 222/385 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 41/86 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rohm and Haas: ROH (actual trade)

$ $ $

I ran a pressure test of my home's water lines and found two more burst pipes, joining a third one I've fixed. I'm waiting for parts to arrive so I can fix those two and run another pressure test. It's been more than 2 weeks since I've had running water at home.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALB, AEE, AXS, BMI, BERY, BKH, BBW, CACI, CENX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CMTL, CLGX, CSOD, CR, CCK, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, THG, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HP, HOLX, HON, IEX, INOV, ISRG, JKHY, K, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LANC, LNC, LMT, MHO, MANH, MTRX, MGEE, NBR, NTGR, NEU, OTEX, OXM, PKG, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PINC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SIGI, SLGN, SNPS, TPX, TRV, TG, TREX, VFC, VMI, WMT, WERN, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYK, IHI, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IAT, IYZ, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, MXI, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,980.48    
 Monthly S1  30,257.99  1,277.52   
 Weekly S2  30,387.24  129.24   
 Daily S2  30,820.81  433.57   
 Weekly S1  30,961.37  140.56   
 Low  31,065.90  104.53   
 Open  31,065.90  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  31,133.82  67.92   
 Daily S1  31,178.16  44.34   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,296.03  117.87   
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,367.12  71.09   
 Daily Pivot  31,423.25  56.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,438.21  14.96   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  31,485.51  47.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  31,535.51  50.00   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  31,668.34  132.83   
 Daily R1  31,780.60  112.26   
 Daily R2  32,025.69  245.09   
 Weekly R1  32,059.64  33.95   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  32,411.33  351.69   
 Weekly R2  32,583.78  172.44   
 Monthly R2  33,287.16  703.38   

Monday 3/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

My Prediction

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for March, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 26 February 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

6. Information technology (+36.5%)
4. Consumer discretionary (+29.4%)
9. Materials (+27.0%)
7. Communication services (+27.0%)
2. Health care (+13.6%)
10. Industrials (+13.1%)
8. Financials (+10.8%)
11. Consumer staples (+1.9%)
1. Energy (-4.7%).
3. Real estate (-7.7%)
5. Utilities (-14.4%)

Look at the month ago rank. They have bounced around a lot. Energy was top of the list last month and now it's 9th. Information technology ranks first, joining a position it held for most of last year. I'm glad it's in first place because that's where I put my bucks this year when adjusting my portfolio for year-ahead performance.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

5. Auto components (+66.2%)
(New). Metals and mining (+62.9%)
(New). Technology hardware, storage and peripherals (+59.0%)
(New). Air freight and logistics (+55.3%)
(New). Internet and direct marketing retail (50.8%)
7. Semiconductors & semiconductor equipment (+50.1%)
(New). Construction and engineering (+44.3%)
(New). Trading companies and distributors (+44.1%)
(New). Electronic equipment, instruments and components (+42.5%)
2. Life sciences tools & Services (+42.3%)

As the list shows, most of the industries are new this month. Auto components posted a blockbuster gain of 66%. The rank, for the three industries which made this list, show how well they are doing on a consistent basis. I like to see stability, so that a trend in motion remains in motion.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 27.37 points.
Tuesday: Up 15.66 points.
Wednesday: Up 424.51 points.
Thursday: Down 559.85 points.
Friday: Down 469.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 561.95 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 682.12 points or 4.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 95.56 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.4% down from the high of 32,009.64 on 02/24/2021.
     3.6% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     6.9% down from the high of 14,175.12 on 02/16/2021.
     5.2% up from the low of 12,543.24 on 01/04/2021.
S&P 500
     3.5% down from the high of 3,950.43 on 02/16/2021.
     4.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,559  30,746  31,098  31,285  31,638 
Weekly  30,186  30,559  31,284  31,658  32,383 
Monthly  28,779  29,856  30,933  32,009  33,086 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,749  3,780  3,821  3,852  3,892 
Weekly  3,704  3,758  3,843  3,897  3,982 
Monthly  3,562  3,687  3,819  3,943  4,075 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,851  13,022  13,195  13,365  13,539 
Weekly  12,565  12,879  13,318  13,632  14,071 
Monthly  12,261  12,727  13,451  13,917  14,641 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, AMD, AFL, ALK, ADS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, ABC, APOG, ARCB, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, ADP, BAX, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, BBW, CACI, CALM, CAL, CNC, CENX, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, ED, CAG, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CW, DFS, EMN, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FOE, FIS, FRD, GME, GNW, GFF, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JKHY, K, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, MHO, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MLI, NCR, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PDCO, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROST, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TRV, TREX, SLCA, WRB, WERN, WMB, XEL, XLNX, IHE, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, EWU, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Apparel
2. Apparel2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Shoe
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Shoe5. Securities Brokerage
6. Petroleum (Producing)6. Computers and Peripherals
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Securities Brokerage8. Electronics
9. Computers and Peripherals9. Petroleum (Producing)
10. Electronics10. Semiconductor
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Retail Building Supply50. Information Services
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Aerospace/Defense52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Food Processing53. Food Processing
54. Electric Utility (West)54. E-Commerce
55. Natural Gas (Diversified)55. Natural Gas (Diversified)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Household Products57. Electric Utility (Central)
58. E-Commerce58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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