As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20
As of 01/20/2021
  Indus: 31,188 +257.86 +0.8%  
  Trans: 13,126 +225.85 +1.8%  
  Utils: 865 +7.27 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,457 +260.07 +2.0%  
  S&P 500: 3,852 +52.94 +1.4%  
YTD
 +1.9%  
 +4.9%  
 +0.0%  
 +4.4%  
 +2.6%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2021  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,600 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,300 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow890 or 800 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow13,500 or 12,400 by 02/01/2021
  Up arrow3,900 or 3,625 by 02/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/2/20

Bulkowski's Pogo Producing Trading Quiz

 

Released 11/24/2020.

PPP: Quiz

Below is a slider quiz to test your trading ability. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

 

1 / 7
chart pattern
What chart patterns can you find? Look for the following: 2 ascending triangles, diamond top, double top, head-and-shoulders bottom.
Answers are on the next slide.
2 / 7
chart pattern

There's not much to look at here. The diamond top is questionable (please forgive the way it's drawn). The head-and-shoulders could also be a symmetrical triangle if you connect the head and right shoulder with a trendline.

Question 1: Do you buy, short, or avoid trading this stock?
Question 2: If trading this one, what is the target price?
Question 3: If trading this one, what is the stop price?
My answers appear on the next slide.
3 / 7
chart pattern

From my notebook: "Date placed: 12/3/05, Saturday. Stop order to buy at 50.53, good-till-canceled, above round number 50.50, filled at 50.54. Volatility stop at 47.06, placed 12/5/05. Upside target: 56, site of congestion in Sept (circled in green). Indicators: Bollinger bands are narrowing. Overhead resistance at 53 (red line) setup by bottoms (circled).

Buy reason: Head-and-shoulders bottom. A big W pattern begins from the highest peak on the chart and reverses at the head-and-shoulders bottom. Oil has retraced 50% of the up move from the May 2005 low and Sept high. It looks poised to move higher. As I was researching this, I found lots of negative about the company. Nothing specific, but the stock might move down from here."

My hope was a rise back to the top of the Big W, about 60.

"Score target: 64.18" is from my Trading Classic Chart Patterns book where it scores a chart pattern for performance. This one scored -1 with a median rise to 64.18. The negative score means it was unlikely (but not impossible) to reach the target. Usually I avoid trading chart patterns with scores below 0. Then tend to fail just as the numbers suggest.

Industry and company ranks are a relative strength test of the stock's performance over the past 6 months, grouped by industry and ranked. The stock ranked 17 out of 46 industries and dead last 8 out of 8 among petroleum producers.

The following slide shows the next part of the trade.
4 / 7
chart pattern

This is a picture of the S&P 500 index. "Future market direction: Up. The S&P has paused after a run up from the October 2005 lows. It's gathering strength now." I circle the pause region. After I bought, the index moved horizontally for a month and then began a choppy move to higher ground.

My answer appears on the next slide.
5 / 7
chart pattern

This is divergence between the commodity channel index (CCI) indicator and price. It's a complicated screen with the top half showing buy (green) and red (sell) signals. I show divergence by the thick blue line. CCI/DCCI signals occur when the two cross or the CCI crosses the 0 line. I use it mostly for divergence. The DCCI is a "delayed CCI" line, a moving average of the CCI line.

My answer appears on the next slide.
6 / 7
chart pattern

"12/9/05. Stop raised to 48.78, just below the right shoulder low. 12/12/05. Stop raised to 49.63, below volatility stop and below Fibonacci retrace as price makes a new high but closes much lower. I want to narrow the possible loss."

I show the 12/9 stop as the red lines on the day (second bar from the right) and price level. The inset shows the Fibonacci retrace of the move from A to B and the 12/12 stop location (approximate).

The following slide shows what happened next.
7 / 7
chart pattern

"Date sold: 12/19/05, at: 49.59. Sell reason: hit stop."

I took a small loss when price threw back to the base of the chart pattern and took me out in the process. Price did go on to complete the Big W chart pattern, pushing through overhead resistance at 53 and 56. Too bad I wasn't in the stock at that time..."

The end.

See Also

 
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My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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