Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 05/16/2025
  Indus: 42,655 +331.99 +0.8%  
  Trans: 15,159 +118.21 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,043 +15.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 19,211 +98.78 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,958 +41.45 +0.7%  
YTD
 +0.3%  
-4.6%  
 +6.1%  
-0.5%  
 +1.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/12/2025  
  Up arrow43,700 or 40,900 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow16,000 or 14,000 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow19,500 or 17,700 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow6,000 or 5,600 by 06/01/2025
As of 05/16/2025
  Indus: 42,655 +331.99 +0.8%  
  Trans: 15,159 +118.21 +0.8%  
  Utils: 1,043 +15.20 +1.5%  
  Nasdaq: 19,211 +98.78 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,958 +41.45 +0.7%  
YTD
 +0.3%  
-4.6%  
 +6.1%  
-0.5%  
 +1.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/12/2025  
  Up arrow43,700 or 40,900 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow16,000 or 14,000 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow1,075 or 1,000 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow19,500 or 17,700 by 06/01/2025
  Up arrow6,000 or 5,600 by 06/01/2025

May 2025 Headlines

Archives


Monday 5/19/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

ABC is a triple top, denoted by peaks A, B, and C.

But there's another interpretation, that of an inverted roof. I show that outlined in green.

The pattern turned bearish when the index tumbled after the pattern completed.

The two red lines that slope upward on the far right of the chart show a slope that's not sustainable. That means look for the index to drop (retrace the prior gain).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 1160.72 points.
Tuesday: Down 269.67 points.
Wednesday: Down 89.37 points.
Thursday: Up 271.69 points.
Friday: Up 331.99 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1405.36 points or 3.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 1282.18 points or 7.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 298.47 points or 5.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.3% down from the high of 45,054.36 on 01/31/2025.
     16.5% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     4.5% down from the high of 20,118.61 on 01/24/2025.
     29.9% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 6,147.43 on 02/19/2025.
     23.2% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  42,086  42,370  42,517  42,801  42,948 
Weekly  41,480  42,067  42,365  42,953  43,251 
Monthly  36,217  39,436  41,050  44,269  45,883 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,890  5,924  5,941  5,976  5,993 
Weekly  5,728  5,843  5,901  6,016  6,074 
Monthly  4,816  5,387  5,673  6,244  6,530 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  18,979  19,095  19,154  19,270  19,329 
Weekly  18,225  18,718  18,966  19,459  19,706 
Monthly  14,509  16,860  18,037  20,388  21,565 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AES, APD, AMZN, AEO, AFG, APA, ATR, ARW, AZTA, BIO, CALM, CX, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CI, CTAS, CTSH, ELV, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FMC, FORM, FCX, GD, GNW, GS, GGG, GES, HTLD, HSY, HOLX, IEX, TILE, JAZZ, KLAC, KSS, LZB, MGY, MLM, MA, MTDR, MTRN, MU, JWN, NTNX, PFE, PLXS, PINC, DGX, ROP, ROST, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, STR, TGT, TZOO, VLO, VMC, XEL, IYM, IHE, DDM, FXI, IYZ, IYF, IHI, EWP, THD, TUR, DBA, PEJ, XLF, GLD, XLB, XRT, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Investment Co. (Foreign)2. Electric Utility (Central)
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Financial Services
4. Financial Services4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Metals and Mining (Div.)5. Investment Co. (Foreign)
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
7. Electric Utility (Central)7. Metals and Mining (Div.)
8. Securities Brokerage8. Short ETFs
9. Aerospace/Defense9. Electric Utility (East)
10. Natural Gas (Diversified)10. Natural Gas (Distributor)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Building Materials50. Toiletries/Cosmetics
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Computers and Peripherals
52. Biotechnology52. Semiconductor
53. Air Transport53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Chemical (Basic)54. Chemical (Basic)
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Biotechnology
56. Advertising56. Advertising
57. Human Resources57. Homebuilding
58. Homebuilding58. Human Resources
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Trucking/Transp. Leasing60. Trucking/Transp. Leasing

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 5/16/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, ACN, AFL, ALB, AMZN, AMED, AFG, AME, AON, ATR, ADM, AGO, AVY, AZTA, BOOT, BR, CACI, CALM, CX, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CVX, CTAS, CSCO, CNA, CMTL, CAG, CSGP, CR, CRH, DHR, ^DJI, ELV, EPAM, EVH, FDX, FCX, GD, GE, GNW, HTLD, HP, HOLX, HUM, TILE, JNJ, KEYS, KSS, LMT, LOW, MLM, MA, MCO, MOS, MUR, NEE, NKE, NOC, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, PANW, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PINC, QTWO, RJF, ROP, ROST, ^GSPC, SEIC, SRE, SXI, SRDX, TXN, TRV, TZOO, UNH, VFC, VEEV, WSM, ITA, IYK, ICF, IHF, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWJ, EWS, EZA, EWL, THD, TUR, DBA, PJP, SSO, XLP, XLF, GLD, SPY, UNG, USO, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDDead-cat bounce      05/13/202505/13/2025Electronics
ADTNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Telecom. Equipment
APDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/21/202505/01/2025Chemical (Diversified)
AMZNPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Internet
AEPTriple top      04/17/202505/06/2025Electric Utility (Central)
AXPPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Financial Services
AMWDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/09/202504/21/2025Building Materials
AMEPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Industrial Services
ANIKDead-cat bounce      05/09/202505/09/2025Biotechnology
APAUgly double bottom      04/09/202505/07/2025Petroleum (Producing)
APOGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/25/202505/07/2025Building Materials
ADMPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Food Processing
AVYUgly double bottom      04/08/202504/30/2025Packaging and Container
AVATriple top      04/03/202505/06/2025Electric Utility (West)
BFHPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Information Services
BCOUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Industrial Services
BBWPipe bottom      04/21/202504/28/2025Retail (Special Lines)
CALTriple bottom      04/08/202505/06/2025Shoe
CLSFlag, high and tight      04/04/202505/14/2025Electronics
CVXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/11/202504/21/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
CLFPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
EDDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/22/202505/01/2025Electric Utility (East)
GLWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Telecom. Equipment
CSGSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025IT Services
CTSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Electronics
DDSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Retail Store
DOVPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Machinery
DUKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/17/202505/06/2025Electric Utility (East)
EMNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/28/202505/07/2025Chemical (Diversified)
EMRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computers and Peripherals
EQTPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/04/202504/17/2025Electric Utility (East)
XOMUgly double bottom      04/10/202505/05/2025Petroleum (Integrated)
FFIVPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Internet
FDXUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Air Transport
FISVDead-cat bounce      05/15/202505/15/2025IT Services
FIVNHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FLSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Machinery
FCXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
GFSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/08/202504/16/2025Semiconductor
GMSBig W      03/06/202504/08/2025Cement and Aggregates
GSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
GFFDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Building Materials
HEUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/25/2025Electric Utility (West)
HTLDPipe bottom      04/28/202505/05/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HOVUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Homebuilding
HUBGTriple bottom      04/21/202505/06/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HUMPipe top      04/07/202504/14/2025Medical Services
INTCTriangle, symmetrical      04/24/202505/07/2025Semiconductor
KBHUgly double bottom      04/11/202504/30/2025Homebuilding
KELYADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/21/202505/08/2025Human Resources
KEYSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Precision Instrument
KLACPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
KLICPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LENUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Homebuilding
LPLAPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
MRTNTriple bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
MASHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Building Materials
MTDRUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Petroleum (Producing)
MGEETriangle, ascending      04/07/202505/15/2025Electric Utility (Central)
MUPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor
MCOPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Information Services
MSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
MLIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Metal Fabricating
NOVUgly double bottom      04/08/202504/30/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NJRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/17/202505/06/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWLTriple bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Household Products
JWNPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Retail Store
NOVTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/07/202505/06/2025Precision Instrument
NUSUgly double bottom      04/21/202505/06/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
OUTUgly double bottom      04/09/202505/09/2025Advertising
PKEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      04/21/202505/06/2025Chemical (Specialty)
PENDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/25/202505/09/2025Medical Supplies
PFEPipe top      04/28/202505/05/2025Drug
PLXSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Electronics
PFGHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Insurance (Diversified)
QTWOPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
QCOMUgly double bottom      04/07/202505/01/2025Telecom. Equipment
RMBSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/07/202504/22/2025Aerospace/Defense
RGLDPipe top      04/14/202504/21/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
RPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SBHDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      04/09/202504/25/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
SHOPPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
SGIPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
SOTriple top      04/17/202505/07/2025Electric Utility (East)
SRHead-and-shoulders top      03/20/202504/17/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
SSYSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Electronics
TGTUgly double bottom      04/08/202505/06/2025Retail Store
TDOCHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/07/202505/01/2025Healthcare Information
TXTPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Diversified Co.
TTDPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Advertising
TGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/11/202504/07/2025Chemical (Specialty)
TREXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Building Materials
WPMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/21/202505/09/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
WSCPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Industrial Services
WOLFDead-cat bounce      05/09/202505/09/2025Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 5/15/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.7% or 136.73 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 459 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 275 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 184 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 59.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 291/526 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 86/176 or 48.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not much to discuss in the chart.

Pattern A is called a falling wedge. It has two down-sloping trendlines that converge. Most of the time (68%), the breakout is upward. An upward breakout happens when the index closes above the top trendline. We see an upward breakout here, near B.

B points to a common retrace that I call a throwback. It happens when price returns to the breakout price within a week.

Line C is a trendline drawn below the valleys. Given its slope, not too steep and not too shallow, it could continue going higher for quite some time. However, the general market is weakening, so I expect the uptrend to stop soon.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AMD, ALB, ALGT, AMZN, AEP, ANIK, APOG, ADM, AVA, AZTA, BSET, BZH, BRKR, CPB, CLS, CX, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CXW, GLW, CRH, CTS, DHR, ELV, EFX, EVH, EXC, FICO, FARO, FLEX, FDP, GME, GIS, GPRO, GGG, THG, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HL, HOLX, HD, HUM, HURC, ITW, PODD, JKHY, KALU, K, LH, L, LOW, NTGR, NOC, NVDA, OMCL, ASGN, PKG, PAYX, PFE, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPG, PINC, PGR, PSTG, QTWO, REGN, RCKY, ROST, RGLD, R, SEE, SO, SR, TZOO, UHAL, UPS, UNH, UNM, VEEV, WPM, FXI, IHF, IYZ, IEV, SLV, IHI, EWO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWP, TUR, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PHO, XLP, XLF, GLD, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,030.31    
 Monthly S1  16,588.56  2,558.25   
 Monthly Pivot  17,342.28  753.72   
 Weekly S2  17,655.62  313.34   
 Weekly Pivot  18,248.61  592.99   
 Weekly S1  18,401.21  152.61   
 Weekly R2  18,841.60  440.38   
 Daily S2  18,963.38  121.79   
 Weekly R1  18,994.20  30.82   
 Low  19,023.61  29.41   
 Daily S1  19,055.10  31.49   
 Open  19,074.72  19.63   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,081.65  6.93   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,099.58  17.93   
 Daily Pivot  19,115.32  15.74   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,117.51  2.19   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  19,146.81  29.30   
 High  19,175.55  28.74   
 Daily R1  19,207.04  31.49   
 Daily R2  19,267.26  60.23   
 Monthly R1  19,900.53  633.27   
 Monthly R2  20,654.25  753.72   

Wednesday 5/14/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is bullish as shown by the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. It's been bullish for about 3 weeks now.

However, look at the trend of the indicator versus the index. A line drawn along the peaks on the CPI line shows a slight downward trend. A line drawn along the peaks in the index shows a rising trend.

That's called bearish divergence. The two indicators diverge (one slopes up and one down). The theory is that the index will follow the CPI down.

I think that's likely. The index has been moving higher for too long. It's overextended and it needs to pause for a time before resuming the uptrend. So that's what I anticipate, a retrace-rise move.

Using the right scale (which is for the CPI, but I'm using it only as a reference), I expect a drop back to 288, which is where a knot appears. That should support price.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AES, ALGT, AEP, APOG, AAPL, ATR, AVY, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BA, BRKR, CPB, CLS, CX, CENX, CDAY, CI, CTAS, CTSH, CL, ED, CTS, ^DJI, D, DOV, DUK, EXP, ELV, EFX, EQT, EVRG, EVH, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FARO, FISV, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GME, GD, GIS, GGG, THG, HIG, HTLD, HP, HSY, HOLX, HD, HUM, HURC, IDA, ITW, IPAR, JKHY, KALU, KBH, KEYS, LHX, L, LOW, MA, META, ^IXIC, NVDA, OGE, ASGN, ORCL, PFE, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PINC, PRU, RGS, ROP, ROST, SAIA, SAND, SIGI, SCI, SO, SWX, SR, SCS, SRDX, TER, TDG, UHAL, UPS, UNH, WPM, WOLF, IYK, FTEC, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, IYZ, IGV, IHI, EWA, EWZ, EWQ, EWI, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, THD, TUR, QLD, DBA, PEJ, PHO, XLP, GLD, XLI, XLK, USO, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 5/13/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 2.8% or 1160.72 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 26 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 12 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 14 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 53.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 307/564 or 54.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 59/123 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Trex: (TREX) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 390 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AES, A, APD, ALK, AA, ALGT, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AEP, AXP, AMWD, AME, AMGN, APH, ANIK, AR, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ANET, AWI, ARW, ASH, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BALL, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CAL, CPB, CE, COR, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CI, CSCO, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, COP, GLW, CSGP, CR, CRH, CROX, CTS, CMI, DHR, XRAY, DVN, FANG, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DUK, EXP, EMN, EME, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FARO, FDX, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FNV, FCX, FDP, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GFS, GL, GS, GGG, GES, HBI, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IEX, IDXX, ITW, INCY, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IPI, ISRG, KALU, KBH, KMT, KEYS, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LNC, RAMP, LOW, LPLA, LXU, MHO, M, MGY, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTDR, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, JWN, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ON, ORCL, OXM, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PINC, PFG, PG, PRU, PHM, PSTG, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RRC, RJF, REGN, RGA, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROP, ROST, RES, R, ^GSPC, CRM, SBH, SLB, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SHW, STR, SKX, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SR, SPSC, SXI, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TJX, TOL, TSCO, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, UGI, UPS, VFC, VLO, V, VC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WSM, WSC, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IXC, MXI, IXN, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, ITB, IHI, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  35,103.59    
 Monthly S1  38,756.85  3,653.25   
 Monthly Pivot  40,265.04  1,508.19   
 Weekly S2  40,633.77  368.73   
 Weekly S1  41,521.93  888.17   
 Weekly Pivot  41,647.58  125.64   
 Daily S2  41,723.40  75.82   
 Low  41,899.05  175.65   
 Open  41,899.05  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  42,066.75  167.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  42,097.31  30.56   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  42,158.55  61.24   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  42,219.79  61.24   
 Daily Pivot  42,242.40  22.61   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  42,410.10  167.70   
 High  42,418.05  7.95   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  42,535.74  117.69   
 Daily R1  42,585.75  50.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  42,661.39  75.64   
 Daily R2  42,761.40  100.01   
 Monthly R1  43,918.29  1,156.89   
 Monthly R2  45,426.47  1,508.19   

Monday 5/12/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

A double top appears at AB which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below C. If the index doesn't close below C, then you do not have a double top. You are just looking at squiggles on the chart.

At D, the index retraces a portion of the decline. That retrace has a name: Pullback.

A pullback happens after a downward breakout from a chart pattern. The index or stock returns, or comes close to, the breakout price. The breakout price in this case, is C, the red line, which is the lowest low between the two peaks (AB).

Notice at E, that the index has reached the level of line C. It suggests that the index has climbed to a resistance level, so I'd expect the Dow to drop.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 98.6 points.
Tuesday: Down 389.83 points.
Wednesday: Up 284.97 points.
Thursday: Up 254.48 points.
Friday: Down 119.07 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 68.05 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 48.81 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.76 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.4% down from the high of 45,054.36 on 01/31/2025.
     12.7% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     10.9% down from the high of 20,118.61 on 01/24/2025.
     21.3% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     7.9% down from the high of 6,147.43 on 02/19/2025.
     17.1% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  40,942  41,096  41,304  41,458  41,666 
Weekly  40,247  40,748  41,261  41,762  42,274 
Monthly  34,717  37,983  39,878  43,144  45,040 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,618  5,639  5,665  5,686  5,713 
Weekly  5,511  5,586  5,653  5,727  5,794 
Monthly  4,520  5,090  5,405  5,975  6,290 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,735  17,832  17,951  18,047  18,166 
Weekly  17,250  17,589  17,843  18,182  18,436 
Monthly  13,624  15,777  16,936  19,089  20,248 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 141 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADBE, A, ALK, AA, ALKS, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AR, AON, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BBY, BSX, BBW, CX, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CNX, CL, ED, CSGP, DVN, DFS, ^DJI, EPAM, EVRG, EVH, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FLEX, FMC, FTNT, FNV, FRD, GL, GPRO, GFF, HE, DHI, HUM, IDA, ITW, PODD, IPG, KBH, KLAC, LH, LEN, LLY, LPLA, M, MANH, MTRX, MLKN, MUR, NOV, NTAP, NJR, OMC, OUT, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PNW, PPL, PINC, DGX, RRC, ROP, ^GSPC, CRM, SBH, SMG, SCCO, SPSC, TRGP, TEVA, TXN, TTD, RIG, TREX, WAT, WU, WPM, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, IHE, DDM, FDN, IYH, IEV, ITB, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PJP, XAR, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Electric Utility (Central)2. Financial Services
3. Financial Services3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Investment Co. (Foreign)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
6. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Investment Co. (Foreign)
8. Short ETFs8. Retail Store
9. Electric Utility (East)9. Securities Brokerage
10. Natural Gas (Distributor)10. Metals and Mining (Div.)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Toiletries/Cosmetics50. Air Transport
51. Computers and Peripherals51. Computers and Peripherals
52. Semiconductor52. Shoe
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Chemical (Basic)54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Biotechnology55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Advertising56. Homebuilding
57. Homebuilding57. Advertising
58. Human Resources58. Human Resources
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Trucking/Transp. Leasing60. Trucking/Transp. Leasing

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 5/9/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, ALK, AEO, AME, AMGN, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSX, BBW, CPB, CX, CHKP, CTAS, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CNX, ED, CR, CROX, CSGS, DECK, DVN, FANG, DOV, EBAY, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EXC, EXPI, FFIV, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, GL, GS, GPRO, HBI, HSII, HSY, PODD, IBKR, TILE, IRM, JAZZ, KEYS, KFRC, LHX, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MAN, MKTX, MA, MGEE, MU, MLKN, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NKE, NWPX, OGE, ORI, OR, OUT, OMI, PAYX, PCTY, PYPL, PETS, PNW, PINC, PRU, QTWO, QCOM, RL, RRC, RJF, REGN, ROP, ROST, SEE, SEIC, SKYW, SCCO, SSYS, TER, TTD, TJX, TG, TWLO, UGI, VFC, VECO, VRTX, V, WAT, WSO, WU, WWW, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IEZ, IDU, QTEC, FXL, FXI, ICF, IGV, IXN, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWK, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWD, TUR, PPA, PEJ, ROBO, XLP, XLF, XLI, XAR, XLU, UNG, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDTriple bottom      04/04/202504/30/2025Electronics
MMMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Diversified Co.
ANFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/30/202505/06/2025Apparel
ACNHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025IT Services
AEISPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor
AESHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/09/202505/01/2025Electric Utility (East)
ALRMHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs
ALKHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Air Transport
AATriangle, ascending      04/09/202505/08/2025Aerospace/Defense
ALGTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/22/2025Air Transport
AIGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/21/202505/02/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMATPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ASHPipe top      04/21/202504/28/2025Chemical (Basic)
AZTADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/21/202505/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BCPCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/09/202504/24/2025Chemical (Specialty)
BIIBUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/29/2025Biotechnology
BSXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Services
CENXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/23/202505/02/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHKPPipe bottom      04/21/202504/28/2025E-Commerce
CINFHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CTASUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Industrial Services
CNXPipe bottom      04/21/202504/28/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
COSTUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Retail Store
CSGSUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/25/2025IT Services
DVNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/30/202505/07/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
DFSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/17/202504/07/2025Financial Services
^DJUBroadening top      02/10/202505/06/2025None
EXPHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Cement and Aggregates
ELVPipe top      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Services
EQTUgly double bottom      04/04/202504/23/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
EVHDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/05/202504/21/2025Healthcare Information
EXPIDead-cat bounce      05/07/202505/07/2025E-Commerce
FASTBroadening top      04/15/202505/07/2025Retail Building Supply
FIVNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FMCPipe top      04/21/202504/28/2025Chemical (Basic)
FORMPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor
FWRDFlag, high and tight      04/09/202505/08/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FRDDead-cat bounce      05/06/202505/06/2025Building Materials
GAPPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Apparel
ITPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025IT Services
GEPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Diversified Co.
HERoof, inverted      04/16/202505/08/2025Electric Utility (West)
HQYPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Healthcare Information
HSIIHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Human Resources
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/21/202505/05/2025Medical Supplies
HNIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
JBHTHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IBKRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
TILETriangle, symmetrical      04/02/202504/30/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
ISRGPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Supplies
JNJTriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202505/08/2025Medical Supplies
KMTRising wedge      04/09/202505/06/2025Metal Fabricating
KSSHorn top      05/13/202405/28/2024Retail Store
LZBPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
LRCXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAMRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Advertising
MTSIPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor
MANHPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025IT Services
MKTXTriple bottom      04/23/202504/30/2025Securities Brokerage
MDTTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/02/2025Medical Supplies
METAHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025E-Commerce
MYGNDead-cat bounce      05/07/202505/07/2025Biotechnology
^IXICPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025None
NFGPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
NTGRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Telecom. Equipment
NTAPPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computers and Peripherals
NIUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Electric Utility (Central)
JWNUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Retail Store
NTNXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
NVDAPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Semiconductor
OXYUgly double bottom      04/09/202505/07/2025Petroleum (Producing)
OLNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/23/202505/02/2025Chemical (Basic)
OMCLDead-cat bounce      05/06/202505/06/2025Healthcare Information
PAYXHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025IT Services
PYPLPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Financial Services
PETSUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Medical Services
PSTGPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computers and Peripherals
RLPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Apparel
RJFPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
ROKPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Diversified Co.
ROPPipe bottom      04/21/202504/28/2025Industrial Services
RTriangle, symmetrical      04/02/202505/07/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CRMHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025E-Commerce
SMGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/30/2025Chemical (Basic)
SEEPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Packaging and Container
SMTCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/08/202504/21/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
STRPipe bottom      04/07/202504/14/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
SKYWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Air Transport
LUVDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Air Transport
SWXUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/30/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
SXIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Diversified Co.
SSYSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Electronics
TERTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/08/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TXNUgly double bottom      04/11/202504/30/2025Semiconductor
TDGPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Aerospace/Defense
RIGTriple bottom      04/07/202504/30/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TGPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Chemical (Specialty)
TREXUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/30/2025Building Materials
TWLOPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
UGIUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/30/2025Natural Gas (Distributor)
UISUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/30/2025Computers and Peripherals
UPSTriangle, descending      04/10/202505/08/2025Air Transport
UNMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/21/202504/30/2025Insurance (Diversified)
VMIPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Metal Fabricating
VECOTriangle, symmetrical      04/08/202505/01/2025Precision Instrument
WUPipe top      04/21/202504/28/2025Financial Services
WSCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/04/202504/22/2025Industrial Services
WOLFFlag, high and tight      04/10/202505/02/2025Semiconductor
WWDPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 5/8/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.3% or 48.5 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 697 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 381 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 316 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 290/525 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 86/176 or 48.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the green line under price valleys. Why? Because it's Wednesday and I need something to write about. Smile

The real reason is that the price trend screamed linearity (rising at a steady clip, following a trend).

I drew the red lines for the same reason. The two red lines form a chart pattern called a channel.

Earlier today, the index touched the top red line before backing down. What does that mean? I'm not sure. Often it means a trip to the other side of the channel. That's also my guess as to what happens next.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: A, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AEE, AIG, AMWD, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, ASH, ADP, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BALL, BRKR, BBW, BLDR, BG, CALM, CAL, CPB, CNC, CDAY, CHKP, CTAS, CLF, CNO, CNX, COP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, EBAY, EVRG, EXPI, FIS, FISV, FMC, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HELE, HUBG, IBP, TILE, JKHY, JAZZ, KMT, KMB, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LANC, L, MAN, MTRN, MOS, MYGN, NI, NWPX, OLN, ASGN, PAYX, PPL, PINC, PGR, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RGS, RLI, ROP, ROST, SAND, SCHW, SLGN, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SPSC, SXI, TECH, TSCO, TDG, RIG, TWLO, UGI, VLO, VMI, VRTX, V, WMT, WSO, WU, WEX, WWD, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWP, THD, TUR, PEJ. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,592.21    
 Monthly S1  15,665.18  2,072.98   
 Weekly S2  16,492.87  827.69   
 Monthly Pivot  16,857.01  364.13   
 Weekly S1  17,115.52  258.51   
 Daily S2  17,369.87  254.35   
 Low  17,503.01  133.14   
 Daily S1  17,554.01  51.00   
 Weekly Pivot  17,582.17  28.16   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,624.21  42.04   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,661.65  37.44   
 Daily Pivot  17,687.16  25.50   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,699.10  11.94   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  17,706.83  7.73   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,738.16  31.33   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 High  17,820.30  82.14   
 Daily R1  17,871.30  51.00   
 Daily R2  18,004.45  133.14   
 Weekly R1  18,204.82  200.37   
 Weekly R2  18,671.47  466.66   
 Monthly R1  18,929.98  258.51   
 Monthly R2  20,121.81  1,191.82   

Wednesday 5/7/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

After being bullish for the last two weeks or so, the CPI has slipped to neutral. That's what the two vertical white bars on the far right of the chart mean.

A clearer picture of the CPI is in the inset in the middle of the chart. The index didn't make a big drop today (Tuesday) but the CPI tumbled. It suggests more of a downward move is coming. Besides, we're due for a retrace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 89 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ALK, AMGN, AVNT, BCPC, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CPB, CE, CLS, CHKP, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CNX, CSGP, EVRG, EXPI, EZPW, FARO, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GILD, GL, GES, HSII, HNI, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IPI, JAZZ, K, KELYA, KSS, MAN, MKTX, MTRX, MOS, NEU, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMCL, OR, PKG, PKE, PINC, PGR, QCOM, ROP, SAND, SIGI, SCCO, TJX, UGI, UNM, VLO, MDRX, WU, WPM, FXI, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWH, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, GLD. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 5/6/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -98.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1271 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 636 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 635 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 307/563 or 54.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 59/123 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tribune Co.: TRB stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 87 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ALRM, ALK, DOX, AAPL, BCPC, CNC, CHKP, CINF, COP, CROX, CSGS, CMI, DUK, EXP, EBAY, EVRG, EZPW, FIVN, FMC, FNV, GILD, GES, HE, HOLX, HUM, HUN, ILMN, JAZZ, JNJ, KELYA, KSS, LH, LMT, MKTX, MAS, META, NJR, NUS, OLN, ORCL, OR, PATK, PAYX, PCTY, PFG, PGR, RTX, RCKY, ROP, RGLD, R, CRM, SKX, SKYW, SXI, TGT, TECH, TJX, TSCO, TWLO, UGI, VEEV, V, VC, WPM, WWW, IYH, ILF, SLV, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWG, EWJ, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWT, GLD, XLV, USO, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  34,300.47    
 Monthly S1  37,759.65  3,459.18   
 Weekly S2  39,142.99  1,383.34   
 Monthly Pivot  40,070.96  927.97   
 Weekly S1  40,180.91  109.95   
 Weekly Pivot  40,783.55  602.64   
 Daily S2  40,860.26  76.71   
 Daily S1  41,039.54  179.29   
 Low  41,063.44  23.90   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  41,173.38  109.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  41,209.54  36.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  41,218.83  9.29   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  41,242.73  23.90   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  41,254.68  11.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  41,299.80  45.13   
 Daily R1  41,422.01  122.21   
 High  41,445.91  23.90   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  41,625.20  179.29   
 Weekly R1  41,821.47  196.27   
 Weekly R2  42,424.11  602.64   
 Monthly R1  43,530.14  1,106.03   
 Monthly R2  45,841.45  2,311.31   

Monday 5/5/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transoprts on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale. Let's go through the patterns, starting from A.

At AB, I show a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below C. The drop down to the chart's low in April is a big dive.

Let's set D aside for a moment.

E is a flag. This one tilts against the prevailing trend, which flags do many times, but not all the time. They can slope in the direction of the trend or horizontally.

Flags can sometimes act as midway patterns, which this almost does in the run from peak B to valley in April.

F is a triple bottom if you want to group the spikes together. It might be better to call this a rectangle bottom. The rect sees price reverse and climb for a time.

Going back to D, it's a unformed rising wedge. Unformed? Yes. A true rising wedge needs more touches of each trendline. The last touch on the top, at D, price moves through the top trendline. It's not a minor high, so it really doesn't qualify as a touch. The bottom valleys have two touches when three is better.

I suppose this might qualify as a flag or pennant.

What does the pennant or flag or wedge mean? Breakouts from a rising wedge are downward 60% of the time. This might be one of the exceptions. I'm looking for the markets to continue their recovery, but it'll be interrupted by a downward retrace soon.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 114.09 points.
Tuesday: Up 300.03 points.
Wednesday: Up 141.74 points.
Thursday: Up 83.6 points.
Friday: Up 564.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1203.93 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 594.79 points or 3.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 161.46 points or 2.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.3% down from the high of 45,054.36 on 01/31/2025.
     12.9% up from the low of 36,611.78 on 04/07/2025.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 20,118.61 on 01/24/2025.
     21.6% up from the low of 14,784.03 on 04/07/2025.
S&P 500
     7.5% down from the high of 6,147.43 on 02/19/2025.
     17.6% up from the low of 4,835.04 on 04/07/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  40,796  41,057  41,221  41,482  41,647 
Weekly  39,176  40,247  40,816  41,887  42,457 
Monthly  34,333  37,825  40,104  43,596  45,874 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,618  5,652  5,677  5,711  5,735 
Weekly  5,339  5,513  5,607  5,781  5,874 
Monthly  4,542  5,114  5,407  5,980  6,273 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,709  17,844  17,946  18,080  18,183 
Weekly  16,573  17,275  17,662  18,365  18,751 
Monthly  13,672  15,825  16,937  19,090  20,202 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALRM, ALK, AXP, APA, APOG, AMAT, ASH, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BSX, BRC, BBW, CNP, CDAY, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CSCO, DECK, DVN, FANG, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, EXP, EME, EZPW, FIVN, FMC, IT, GD, GE, GILD, GFS, GS, HQY, HTLD, HOLX, HON, HUM, HUN, IBKR, ISRG, IRM, JAZZ, KELYA, KEYS, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LLY, LMT, L, MANH, MKTX, MAS, MA, MTDR, MDT, MRCY, META, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, NFG, NTAP, NEU, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ORCL, OR, PTEN, PAYX, PFG, PGR, PEG, QCOM, RJF, RTX, REGN, RCKY, ROG, ROP, RGLD, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SHW, SLGN, SKYW, SO, SWX, SXI, SRDX, TECH, TER, TSCO, UHAL, VFC, VMI, V, WLK, WPM, WMB, WSC, WOLF, ITA, IYM, IAI, IEZ, IHE, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IEV, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Internet
2. Financial Services2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Financial Services
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Metals and Mining (Div.)
6. Natural Gas (Distributor)6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Investment Co. (Foreign)7. Short ETFs
8. Retail Store8. Investment Co. (Foreign)
9. Securities Brokerage9. Securities Brokerage
10. Metals and Mining (Div.)10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Air Transport50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Computers and Peripherals51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Shoe52. Semiconductor
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Chemical (Basic)
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Human Resources
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Toiletries/Cosmetics
56. Homebuilding56. Shoe
57. Advertising57. Advertising
58. Human Resources58. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Trucking/Transp. Leasing60. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 5/2/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, APD, ALRM, ALK, ALKS, APH, APA, ANET, ARW, BCPC, BAX, BOOT, BRC, CACI, CNP, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTSH, GLW, CRH, CTS, DSGR, D, EXP, EBAY, EME, EQT, EZPW, FIVN, FTNT, FWRD, GAP, GILD, GL, HTLD, HWM, HUM, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, IPAR, TILE, LH, LEG, RAMP, LPLA, MTSI, MGY, MAS, META, MSFT, MLKN, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NUS, NTNX, OTEX, ORCL, PKE, PAYX, PFG, QTWO, RTX, RGS, RHI, RCKY, ROP, RGLD, ^GSPC, CRM, SMTC, SKX, SO, SPSC, SXI, SCS, TRGP, TECH, TDOC, TSCO, TWLO, VEEV, MDRX, VC, WMT, WU, WEX, WPM, WSM, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, IXN, ILF, SLV, EWZ, EIS, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWT, TUR, QLD, DBA, SSO, XLV, XLI, SPY, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADBEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/07/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AAPLUgly double bottom      04/08/202504/21/2025Computers and Peripherals
AMATUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ANETPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
AWIPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Building Materials
AIZTriangle, symmetrical      04/04/202505/01/2025Insurance (Diversified)
ADSKPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
BAHTriple bottom      03/03/202504/09/2025IT Services
BSXUgly double bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Services
BRCUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Chemical (Diversified)
CDNSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
CXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Cement and Aggregates
CNCPipe top      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Services
CNPRising wedge      04/09/202505/01/2025Electric Utility (Central)
CIENPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Telecom. Equipment
CINFPipe bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CNATriangle, symmetrical      04/14/202505/01/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMTLRectangle bottom      04/04/202505/01/2025Telecom. Equipment
CRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Diversified Co.
CRHPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Cement and Aggregates
CWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Machinery
DUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/21/2025Electric Utility (East)
DTEDiamond top      02/27/202505/01/2025Electric Utility (Central)
EBAYHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      03/13/202504/29/2025Internet
EMEPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Industrial Services
EGUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EVHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/18/202504/09/2025Healthcare Information
EXPDTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/01/2025Air Transport
FFIVUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Internet
FAROPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Precision Instrument
FLEXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Electronics
FTNTPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
GNWBroadening bottom      02/21/202504/09/2025Insurance (Life)
GGGUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Machinery
HONUgly double bottom      04/09/202504/21/2025Aerospace/Defense
HWMPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Aerospace/Defense
HUNTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/01/2025Chemical (Specialty)
NSPDead-cat bounce      04/29/202504/29/2025Human Resources
ITGRPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Electronics
IPGTriangle, symmetrical      04/03/202504/30/2025Advertising
IPIPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Chemical (Diversified)
INTUPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
IRMPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Industrial Services
KALUPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
LHHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Medical Services
RAMPPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
LOWTriangle, ascending      04/09/202505/01/2025Retail Building Supply
LXUDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Building Materials
MRKTriple bottom      04/09/202504/24/2025Drug
MOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/04/202504/07/2025Chemical (Diversified)
NUSPipe bottom      04/14/202504/21/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
OMCTriangle, symmetrical      04/03/202505/01/2025Advertising
OTEXPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
ORCLHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs
PKGTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/01/2025Packaging and Container
PANWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
PCTYPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
PENPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Medical Supplies
PFGTriangle, symmetrical      04/09/202505/01/2025Insurance (Diversified)
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      04/08/202505/01/2025Chemical (Specialty)
RTXHorn bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Aerospace/Defense
RLIPipe top      03/24/202503/31/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RCKYPipe bottom      04/14/202504/21/2025Shoe
SAIAHorn top      03/24/202504/07/2025Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025E-Commerce
SCHWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Securities Brokerage
SEICPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025IT Services
NOWPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025IT Services
SPSCPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025E-Commerce
SRDXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/09/202504/21/2025Medical Supplies
SNPSPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Computer Software and Svcs
TDGUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/22/2025Aerospace/Defense
TZOOPipe bottom      03/31/202504/07/2025Internet
VRTXUgly double bottom      04/07/202504/21/2025Biotechnology
VMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/10/202504/09/2025Cement and Aggregates
WDAYDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/07/202504/21/2025Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Tuesday 4/1/25. 2025 Forecast Update

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.1% or -14.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 654 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 361 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 293 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 289/524 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 86/176 or 48.9% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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Here's a symbol list of 89 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, AES, ALRM, ALK, AA, AFG, BCPC, BSET, BA, BR, BBW, CX, CHKP, CINF, CGNX, CAG, CR, EXP, EVRG, EXPI, FFIV, FIVN, FORM, FNV, FCX, GME, GILD, GFS, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HL, HUM, JBHT, IEX, NSP, KBH, LH, LEN, MTSI, MAS, META, NJR, NOVT, NUS, ON, ORCL, OMI, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PPG, PPL, PFG, RTX, RCKY, RGLD, CRM, SAND, SHW, SXI, TECH, TSCO, TRV, VFC, MDRX, WERN, WPM, WWD, IYK, IEZ, IYH, SLV, EWH, EWM, EWS, THD, TUR, DBA, PEJ, XLP, XLV, USO, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,340.07    
 Weekly S2  15,126.23  1,786.16   
 Monthly S1  15,393.20  266.98   
 Weekly S1  16,286.28  893.08   
 Daily S2  16,772.27  485.99   
 Monthly Pivot  16,837.17  64.89   
 Weekly Pivot  16,845.39  8.22   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  16,959.53  114.14   
 Open  17,099.98  140.45   
 Daily S1  17,109.31  9.33   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,159.81  50.50   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,221.68  61.87   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,283.54  61.87   
 Daily Pivot  17,296.56  13.02   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,446.34  149.78   
 High  17,483.82  37.48   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  17,633.60  149.78   
 Daily R2  17,820.85  187.26   
 Weekly R1  18,005.44  184.59   
 Weekly R2  18,564.55  559.10   
 Monthly R1  18,890.30  325.76   
 Monthly R2  20,334.27  1,443.96   

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