Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/14/2025
  Indus: 44,546 -165.35 -0.4%  
  Trans: 16,607 +211.29 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,006 -5.58 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 20,027 +81.13 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 6,115 -0.44 0.0%  
YTD
 +4.7%  
 +4.5%  
 +2.4%  
 +3.7%  
 +4.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2025  
  Down arrow43,500 or 45,250 by 03/01/2025
  Up arrow16,900 or 15,800 by 03/01/2025
  Up arrow1,050 or 970 by 03/01/2025
  Down arrow19,200 or 20,500 by 03/01/2025
  Down arrow5,875 or 6,200 by 03/01/2025
As of 02/14/2025
  Indus: 44,546 -165.35 -0.4%  
  Trans: 16,607 +211.29 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,006 -5.58 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 20,027 +81.13 +0.4%  
  S&P 500: 6,115 -0.44 0.0%  
YTD
 +4.7%  
 +4.5%  
 +2.4%  
 +3.7%  
 +4.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2025  
  Down arrow43,500 or 45,250 by 03/01/2025
  Up arrow16,900 or 15,800 by 03/01/2025
  Up arrow1,050 or 970 by 03/01/2025
  Down arrow19,200 or 20,500 by 03/01/2025
  Down arrow5,875 or 6,200 by 03/01/2025

January 2025 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 2/18/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -165.35 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 960 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 488 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 472 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 302/554 or 54.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 57/121 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring United Parcel Service 2: UPS stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AA, AEP, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ADP, AVY, AVA, BSET, BKH, BG, CAL, CE, CLS, COR, CENX, CVX, CTAS, CLF, CNX, CGNX, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, FANG, DDS, DFS, ^DJU, D, DOV, EOG, EL, EXPD, FLEX, FTNT, FNV, FDP, GME, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HBI, HL, HP, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, INTC, IPAR, IPI, KALU, KFRC, LZB, LAMR, LANC, MTRN, NTGR, NJR, NI, NUS, NVDA, OLN, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PTEN, PLXS, POR, PPL, PINC, KWR, QCOM, ROP, ROST, RGLD, SAND, SHW, STR, SWX, SR, SXI, TRGP, TTD, TMO, TJX, TDG, RIG, TREX, TWLO, VRTX, WPM, WMB, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, IHE, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, ICF, IYH, IXN, ILF, SOXX, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWU, QLD, PJP, PHO, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,605.64    
 Monthly S1  42,575.86  1,970.22   
 Weekly S2  43,808.63  1,232.77   
 Monthly Pivot  43,815.11  6.48   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  44,177.36  362.25   
 Daily S2  44,334.61  157.25   
 Daily S1  44,440.34  105.74   
 Weekly Pivot  44,473.20  32.86   
 Low  44,498.96  25.76   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  44,546.08  47.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,602.13  56.05   
 Daily Pivot  44,604.70  2.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,634.00  29.31   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,665.88  31.87   
 Daily R1  44,710.43  44.56   
 Open  44,720.99  10.55   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  44,769.05  48.06   
 Weekly R1  44,841.93  72.88   
 Daily R2  44,874.79  32.86   
 Weekly R2  45,137.77  262.99   
 Monthly R1  45,785.33  647.55   
 Monthly R2  47,024.58  1,239.25   

Friday 2/14/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, A, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALGT, AMED, AEP, AMN, ANIK, AR, AON, AGO, ADP, AVY, AVA, BIO, BIIB, BCO, CE, COR, CNC, CENX, CVX, CSCO, CLNE, CNX, CSGP, CR, CCRN, CMI, FANG, ^DJU, D, DOV, EXPD, FARO, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GME, GNW, GPN, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HBI, THG, HSII, HNI, HUM, ITW, INCY, INTC, IPI, JBLU, JNJ, KMT, KMB, LHX, LZB, LAMR, RAMP, MGY, NBR, NFG, NTGR, NUS, NVDA, OMCL, OR, PTEN, PAYX, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RMBS, RGS, ROP, RGLD, SAND, SAIC, SR, SPSC, SXI, TPR, TRGP, TXN, TTD, TMO, TDG, TWLO, UGI, VRTX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYK, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, ILF, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWW, EWY, EWD, EWL, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/24/202502/03/2025Industrial Services
ADBEHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202401/27/2025Computer Software and Svcs
ACGLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/17/202501/28/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ARWDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/09/202401/22/2025Electronics
ADSKHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202401/27/2025Computer Software and Svcs
AZTADouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/30/202502/06/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BECNTriangle, ascending      01/15/202502/13/2025Retail Building Supply
BKNGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/22/202502/03/2025Internet
BRCTriangle, symmetrical      11/11/202402/11/2025Chemical (Diversified)
CPBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202502/10/2025Food Processing
CORDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/30/202502/05/2025Biotechnology
CENXPipe bottom      01/27/202502/03/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
CDAYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/06/202501/28/2025Information Services
CFHead-and-shoulders top      12/04/202402/04/2025Chemical (Basic)
CNXPipe bottom      01/27/202502/03/2025Natural Gas (Diversified)
CGNXThree Falling Peaks      01/21/202502/11/2025Precision Instrument
CMCODead-cat bounce      02/11/202502/11/2025Machinery
DFSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/23/202501/30/2025Financial Services
^DJUDiamond bottom      12/24/202402/10/2025None
DTriple bottom      01/13/202502/04/2025Electric Utility (East)
DTETriple bottom      12/19/202401/23/2025Electric Utility (Central)
EXPDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/27/202502/06/2025Cement and Aggregates
ECLUgly double bottom      01/13/202502/10/2025Chemical (Specialty)
ELUgly double bottom      11/12/202401/03/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
EXPIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/17/202501/28/2025E-Commerce
EZPWPipe bottom      12/16/202412/23/2024Financial Services
FLEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202502/03/2025Electronics
GMSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/21/202501/30/2025Cement and Aggregates
GPRODead-cat bounce      02/07/202502/07/2025Electronics
GGGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202502/03/2025Machinery
HBIDead-cat bounce      02/13/202502/13/2025Apparel
HLITDead-cat bounce      02/11/202502/11/2025Telecom. Equipment
HEUgly double bottom      01/13/202501/29/2025Electric Utility (West)
HSICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/29/202502/05/2025Medical Supplies
HOLXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/28/202502/05/2025Medical Supplies
INTCTriple bottom      12/20/202402/03/2025Semiconductor
IPGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/27/202502/04/2025Advertising
ISRGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/27/202502/03/2025Medical Supplies
KFRCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/02/202501/15/2025Human Resources
KLICHead-and-shoulders top      12/26/202401/21/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAMRRoof, inverted      01/21/202502/13/2025Advertising
LNCUgly double bottom      01/10/202502/05/2025Insurance (Life)
MTRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/21/202501/31/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDTTriple bottom      02/03/202502/12/2025Medical Supplies
MYGNTriple bottom      01/23/202502/10/2025Biotechnology
^IXICDiamond bottom      12/19/202402/12/2025None
NTGRTriple bottom      01/13/202502/06/2025Telecom. Equipment
NTAPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/22/202502/07/2025Computers and Peripherals
NWLDead-cat bounce      02/07/202502/07/2025Household Products
NWPXPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Building Materials
NVDAPipe bottom      01/27/202502/03/2025Semiconductor
OGEUgly double bottom      01/13/202501/27/2025Electric Utility (Central)
ORHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      01/06/202502/03/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
PANWUgly double bottom      01/13/202502/03/2025Computer Software and Svcs
PETSDead-cat bounce      02/11/202502/11/2025Medical Services
PNWHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/18/202401/27/2025Electric Utility (West)
PORDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/04/202502/10/2025Electric Utility (West)
DGXUgly double bottom      01/16/202502/10/2025Medical Services
RGSDead-cat bounce      02/12/202502/12/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
ROSTThree Falling Peaks      12/09/202401/31/2025Retail (Special Lines)
SMTCDead-cat bounce      02/10/202502/10/2025Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SHWDiamond top      01/21/202502/11/2025Chemical (Basic)
SCSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/13/202502/04/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
TECHDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/22/202502/05/2025Biotechnology
TFXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/06/202501/27/2025Diversified Co.
TDCDead-cat bounce      02/12/202502/12/2025Computer Software and Svcs
TTDDead-cat bounce      02/13/202502/13/2025Advertising
TMOPipe top      01/27/202502/03/2025Precision Instrument
TSCOPipe top      01/21/202501/27/2025Retail Building Supply
VMCTriple top      01/21/202502/06/2025Cement and Aggregates

 

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Thursday 2/13/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.0% or 6.09 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 720 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 411 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 309 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 288/517 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 84/173 or 48.6% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Two chart patterns come to mind when I drew trendlines. The first, at A, is a up-sloping channel. Because they are sloping upward, they breakout downward most often (because it takes extra thrust to push the index above the top of the channel and it's easier to drop).

The second pattern is at B and it's called a descending broadening wedge. Those are rare but also harder to spot. They breakout upward 72% of the time, just as this one did.

Price has been sliding along the top trendline for about two weeks now. The chart pattern indicator has turned bearish and remains so. That suggests the market is weak and is going to fall. That notion is probably right for the daily charts. I don't know about intraday, though. This looks like it is going to rise tomorrow. That's a guess...

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 172 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, AEIS, A, APD, AA, AEO, AEP, ANIK, AMAT, AGO, ATO, AZTA, BALL, BAX, BZH, BERY, BIO, BIIB, BR, BLDR, CDNS, CPB, CLS, COR, CNP, CENX, CF, CVX, CHD, CNX, CMCO, CMTL, CSGP, COST, COTY, CCRN, CTS, CMI, ^DJU, DOV, EXP, EME, EXPI, FLEX, FNV, GAP, IT, GILD, GPN, GFS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HE, HSII, HSIC, DHI, IBP, TILE, IPG, IPI, INTU, IRM, KFRC, KMB, LHX, LZB, LDOS, LLY, L, LOW, MTSI, MAS, MTRN, MU, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NVDA, OMCL, OTEX, OR, PKG, PTEN, PCTY, PLXS, PEG, PSTG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RGS, RNG, ROL, ROP, RGLD, SAND, NOW, SHW, SXI, TPR, TRGP, TGT, TDC, TER, TEVA, TTD, TMO, TOL, TREX, VRTX, WMT, WAT, WPM, WMB, WSM, WWW, WDAY, IYK, IYC, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, IXN, SOXX, ITB, EWO, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWP, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, XLY, XHB, XLK, XLU, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,246.79    
 Weekly S2  18,829.82  583.03   
 Monthly S1  18,948.37  118.55   
 Weekly S1  19,239.88  291.51   
 Daily S2  19,315.62  75.73   
 Low  19,415.48  99.86   
 Open  19,436.51  21.03   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  19,482.78  46.27   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,517.49  34.70   
 Monthly Pivot  19,533.49  16.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,548.99  15.50   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  19,551.22  2.22   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,580.50  29.29   
 Daily Pivot  19,582.65  2.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  19,649.95  67.30   
 High  19,682.51  32.56   
 Daily R1  19,749.81  67.30   
 Daily R2  19,849.68  99.86   
 Weekly R1  19,961.28  111.61   
 Monthly R1  20,235.07  273.79   
 Weekly R2  20,272.62  37.55   
 Monthly R2  20,820.19  547.57   

Wednesday 2/12/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

After hovering in the neutral zone (white bars) for four times as long as in the bearish bars (red), the CPI turned to red again. That's the red bar on the far right of the chart.

Hidden beneath the bars is the signal line. That's the thin blue one at the bottom of the chart. I pasted an inset of the CPI on the top left of the chart for your viewing pleasure. Smiley

The indicator dropped to 29.3, which is bearish (below 35 is bearish). This reading suggests the index is going down, but it's not known for how long it might drop or even if it'll drop. Signals can change for up to a week, but it suggests weakness.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AEP, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AVA, AZTA, CACI, CDNS, CALM, COR, CENX, CVX, CHD, CINF, CNX, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CXW, CCRN, CMI, CW, DOV, ELV, EME, EPAM, EVH, EXC, EXPI, FIS, FLEX, FLS, FNV, GE, GPN, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HSY, JBHT, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBKR, IPG, IPI, IRM, LZB, LANC, LDOS, LEN, MRTN, META, MU, MUR, NFG, NTGR, NVDA, OMC, OR, PTEN, PETS, PSTG, QCOM, DGX, REGN, ROP, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEIC, SRE, SCI, SPSC, SXI, SNPS, TRGP, TDY, TEVA, TMO, TZOO, UNM, VRTX, VC, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYK, IDU, DDM, FTEC, ICF, IEV, IXN, SOXX, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWP, EWT, EWU, QLD, IBB, PBE, PJP, XLY, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 2/11/25. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.4% or 167.01 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1152 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 611 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 541 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 301/553 or 54.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 57/121 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring United Technologies: UTX stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, ALKS, AEE, AEP, ANIK, APOG, AIZ, BSET, BAX, BBY, BMRN, BKH, BA, BMY, CE, CENX, CMCO, COP, CSGP, COTY, EG, XOM, FDS, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, FTV, FNV, GAP, GIS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HUM, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, IBKR, INTU, KMB, KSS, LANC, LOW, MANH, MLM, MTRX, MS, NWL, NI, NWPX, OR, OMI, PKG, PETS, PGR, KWR, QCOM, DGX, REGN, RGA, ROK, ROP, ROST, SAND, SLB, SMTC, STR, SKX, SKYW, SO, TRGP, TDY, TTD, TMO, TSCO, TZOO, UGI, UNM, VRTX, WU, WWW, WWD, WDAY, XEL, IAI, IYK, IYE, IDU, FXI, IAT, IXC, IGE, IYF, EIS, PPA, PBE, PJP, PHO, XLF, GLD, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

Top

© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,580.42    
 Monthly S1  42,525.41  1,945.00   
 Weekly S2  43,331.13  805.71   
 Monthly Pivot  43,789.89  458.76   
 Weekly S1  43,900.77  110.88   
 Daily S2  44,143.90  243.13   
 Low  44,301.42  157.52   
 Daily S1  44,307.16  5.73   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  44,396.92  89.77   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,423.95  27.03   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  44,448.70  24.75   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,461.80  13.11   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  44,464.67  2.87   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  44,470.41  5.74   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,499.66  29.25   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  44,622.19  122.54   
 Daily R1  44,627.93  5.73   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  44,785.44  157.52   
 Weekly R1  45,018.34  232.90   
 Weekly R2  45,566.27  547.93   
 Monthly R1  45,734.88  168.61   
 Monthly R2  46,999.36  1,264.47   

Monday 2/10/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow transports. It's busy, so let's go through it by the numbers and the letters.

123 is a confirmed triple bottom chart pattern. You might consider this a three rising valleys chart pattern. Whichever you pick, it's a bullish pattern.

The index climbed to form a flag at A. This pattern broke out downward to make a fourth bottom at, well, 4.

Looking ahead, I'd anticipate 4 finding a bottom right where it is. There's support setup by bottoms 123. Indeed, the index bounced off 4 and climbed.

Looking back, we see a unconfirmed double top at BD. I write unconfirmed because the index didn't close below horizontal red line C.

What does that mean? The twin peak pattern is just squiggles on a price chart. The index climbed from the low near the red line to the highest peak on the chart. The rise is a warning about waiting for confirmation.

E is another double top, which did confirm as a valid chart pattern. The index dropped to F before recovering. Twin peak E is how a double top is supposed to act (meaning price drops after confirmation).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 122.75 points.
Tuesday: Up 134.13 points.
Wednesday: Up 317.24 points.
Thursday: Down 125.65 points.
Friday: Down 444.23 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 241.26 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 101.04 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.54 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 45,054.36 on 01/31/2025.
     5.9% up from the low of 41,844.89 on 01/13/2025.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 20,118.61 on 01/24/2025.
     3.7% up from the low of 18,831.91 on 01/13/2025.
S&P 500
     1.7% down from the high of 6,128.18 on 01/24/2025.
     4.4% up from the low of 5,773.31 on 01/13/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  43,903  44,103  44,480  44,680  45,057 
Weekly  43,275  43,789  44,393  44,907  45,511 
Monthly  40,525  42,414  43,734  45,624  46,944 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,968  5,997  6,049  6,078  6,130 
Weekly  5,840  5,933  6,017  6,110  6,194 
Monthly  5,621  5,823  5,976  6,178  6,331 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  19,252  19,388  19,625  19,761  19,998 
Weekly  18,788  19,156  19,509  19,877  20,230 
Monthly  18,205  18,864  19,491  20,151  20,778 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 185 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADTN, A, ALB, ALKS, AEP, ANIK, ATR, ASH, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BMY, CBT, CDNS, CNC, CINF, CTAS, CLF, CMCO, COP, CXW, CSGP, COTY, EMN, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EVH, EXC, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FNV, FCX, GAP, GPRO, HBI, HL, HP, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HON, DHI, HWM, IEX, ILMN, IIIN, PODD, INTU, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KSS, MGY, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MSFT, MS, NTGR, NWL, NKE, NWPX, NUS, NTNX, OR, OMI, PKG, PANW, PKE, PCTY, PETS, PNW, POR, PFG, PGR, PEG, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RMBS, REGN, RLI, RCKY, ROP, ROST, RGLD, RES, SAIA, CRM, SAND, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SXI, SNPS, TRGP, TXN, TXT, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, UIS, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, WMT, WU, WWW, WWD, WDAY, XEL, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, QQQ, ICF, IAT, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, ITB, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWT, QLD, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLE, XLF, XLI, SPY, XLK, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Securities Brokerage
2. Securities Brokerage2. E-Commerce
3. E-Commerce3. Internet
4. Financial Services4. Financial Services
5. Telecom. Equipment5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Furn/Home Furnishings6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Natural Gas (Diversified)7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Retail (Special Lines)8. Natural Gas (Diversified)
9. Retail Store9. Medical Supplies
10. Insurance (Diversified)10. Retail Store
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Food Processing
51. Food Processing51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Petroleum (Integrated)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Medical Services
54. Medical Services54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Short ETFs
56. Short ETFs56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Human Resources
58. Biotechnology58. Homebuilding
59. Homebuilding59. Biotechnology
60. Human Resources60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 2/7/25. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AEP, AMGN, ANIK, AR, AON, ATR, ARW, AVY, BMI, BKH, BA, BRKR, CX, CNC, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CLF, ED, CXW, COST, CRH, CSGS, DSGR, EMN, EIX, EMR, EFX, EQT, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FNV, GME, GAP, GL, GPRO, HBI, THG, HE, HSIC, JBHT, IIIN, JKHY, JNJ, KLAC, LANC, LEG, MGY, MANH, MTRX, MSFT, MUR, NOV, NTGR, NEU, NTNX, NVDA, OLN, ON, OMI, PKE, PCTY, PNW, POR, PRU, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RRC, RJF, ROP, ROST, RES, SBH, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, STR, SCCO, SWX, SR, SPSC, SXI, SCS, TPR, TRGP, TGT, TDY, TPX, TTD, TJX, TSCO, UHAL, UNM, VRTX, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WMB, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IEZ, IDU, IYZ, IEV, MXI, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, ITB, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, PBE, PJP, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLU, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag, high and tight      12/03/202402/05/2025Electronics
ABTUgly double bottom      01/15/202502/04/2025Medical Supplies
ALRMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/13/202502/03/2025Computer Software and Svcs
ALGTTriple top      01/21/202501/31/2025Air Transport
ALLPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AFGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/17/202501/28/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
APHDiamond bottom      12/27/202402/06/2025Electronics
ADMDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/13/202501/27/2025Food Processing
BCPCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/13/202502/03/2025Chemical (Specialty)
BALLPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Packaging and Container
BZHDead-cat bounce      01/31/202501/31/2025Homebuilding
BCOBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      12/20/202402/03/2025Industrial Services
BGPipe top      01/06/202501/13/2025Food Processing
CNCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/27/202502/03/2025Medical Services
CHDHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/23/202401/23/2025Household Products
CTASTriangle, ascending      01/27/202502/05/2025Industrial Services
CLFUgly double bottom      12/30/202401/23/2025Metals and Mining (Div.)
CRHUgly double bottom      01/13/202502/03/2025Cement and Aggregates
CMIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/27/202502/03/2025Machinery
DECKDead-cat bounce      01/31/202501/31/2025Shoe
DDSPipe bottom      12/09/202412/16/2024Retail Store
BOOMHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/21/202401/22/2025Metal Fabricating
ELDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/09/202401/27/2025Toiletries/Cosmetics
EGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/07/202501/27/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FDXTriple top      12/31/202401/27/2025Air Transport
FISHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202402/03/2025Computer Software and Svcs
FMCDead-cat bounce      02/05/202502/05/2025Chemical (Basic)
FORMDead-cat bounce      02/06/202502/06/2025Semiconductor
THGPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HEPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Electric Utility (West)
HNIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/21/202501/27/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
HURCUgly double bottom      01/10/202501/28/2025Machinery
ITWHead-and-shoulders top      01/21/202501/31/2025Metal Fabricating
NSPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/21/202501/28/2025Human Resources
TILEPipe bottom      01/06/202501/13/2025Furn/Home Furnishings
IPIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/22/202502/03/2025Chemical (Diversified)
IRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/28/202502/03/2025Industrial Services
KMTHead-and-shoulders top      01/06/202501/30/2025Metal Fabricating
LANCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/08/202502/03/2025Food Processing
LLYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/18/202401/17/2025Drug
MHODouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/21/202501/27/2025Homebuilding
NOVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/23/202402/04/2025Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/13/202502/03/2025Chemical (Specialty)
NWPXUgly double bottom      01/10/202501/31/2025Building Materials
NVDADouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/07/202501/24/2025Semiconductor
OMIHorn top      01/13/202501/27/2025Medical Supplies
OXMHead-and-shoulders top      12/16/202401/30/2025Apparel
PYPLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/09/202401/17/2025Financial Services
PETSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/02/202501/28/2025Medical Services
PGRHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      12/20/202401/29/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PHMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/21/202501/30/2025Homebuilding
SXIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/13/202502/03/2025Diversified Co.
SSYSUgly double bottom      01/13/202501/31/2025Electronics
TDOCPipe bottom      01/13/202501/21/2025Healthcare Information
TDCTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/202402/06/2025Computer Software and Svcs
TEVADouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/27/202401/28/2025Drug
TXNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/15/202501/23/2025Semiconductor
TTDTriple top      01/06/202501/30/2025Advertising
TDGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/23/202501/31/2025Aerospace/Defense
UNHUgly double bottom      12/17/202401/17/2025Medical Services
VEEVDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/31/202401/14/2025Healthcare Information
MDRXDead-cat bounce      01/31/202501/31/2025Healthcare Information
WRBHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202401/24/2025Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WEXDead-cat bounce      02/06/202502/06/2025Information Services
WWDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/27/202502/04/2025Precision Instrument
WDAYPipe bottom      11/25/202412/02/2024Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 2/6/25. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.2% or 38.31 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 731 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 421 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 310 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 287/516 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 84/173 or 48.6% of the time.

$ $ $

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a trendline under price action, beginning from the left to the right so that it skimmed most, but not all, valleys and peaks.

The line shows that recent price action is hovering just below the line.

Trend lines are indications of resistance. That means price may struggle to pierce that resistance. Resistance isn't a single price, but often a range or area of prices. Sometimes the stock will rise just above resistance or fall short of it (as in this case).

Often, once the index has cleared (risen above) the resistance, it soars and the line then acts as support should the index drop and return to (or near) the line. You can see this behaviour where the valleys to the left of Monday's gap found support at the red line and recently the line has acted as resistance to the upward move.

What does this mean for upcoming price movement? Hard to tell. Intraday movement isn't as easy to predict as daily or weekly movement. The struggle to pierce the line will see the index climb above the line...eventually.

It could happen tomorrow (Thursday) or it could take several more days, but I'm confident it will happen.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AMD, AES, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, ALKS, ALGT, AEE, AEP, ANIK, ADM, ARW, AVA, AXS, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BAH, BCO, BLDR, CPB, CDAY, CLNE, CLX, CNX, CMTL, GLW, CCRN, CCK, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, DOV, DTE, BOOM, EMR, EL, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FTNT, FNV, GME, GAP, HLIT, HTLD, HP, HSIC, HOV, JBHT, HURC, IEX, NSP, IIIN, ITGR, JNJ, KBH, KMT, LZB, LEG, LLY, MAN, MKTX, MTRN, MRCY, NBR, NOV, NEE, NI, JWN, NTNX, OMI, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PEN, PRU, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RRC, RJF, REGN, RLI, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAND, SAIC, SIGI, SRE, STR, SPSC, SCS, SSYS, TRGP, TECH, TDC, TXT, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TG, UNM, VRSN, VRTX, WPM, WSC, IYK, IHE, IDU, IEV, ITB, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PJP, XLP, GLD, XLU, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  18,260.92    
 Weekly S2  18,857.93  597.01   
 Monthly S1  18,976.62  118.69   
 Weekly S1  19,275.13  298.51   
 Daily S2  19,431.35  156.22   
 Low  19,498.90  67.55   
 Open  19,533.05  34.15   
 Monthly Pivot  19,547.62  14.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  19,561.84  14.22   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  19,574.55  12.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  19,597.92  23.37   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  19,621.29  23.37   
 Weekly Pivot  19,622.15  0.86   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  19,629.39  7.24   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  19,692.33  62.94   
 High  19,696.94  4.61   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  19,759.88  62.94   
 Daily R2  19,827.43  67.55   
 Weekly R1  20,039.35  211.92   
 Monthly R1  20,263.32  223.97   
 Weekly R2  20,386.37  123.04   
 Monthly R2  20,834.32  447.95   

Wednesday 2/5/25. A Look at the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI sits at 45, which is neutral. The chart reflects this by the vertical white bar on the far right of the chart.

The inset on the upper left of the chart shows the CPI dropping for about 2 weeks now, and then bouncing off the bottom. That changed a bearish signal to neutral. If the uptrend continues, look for a bullish reading.

Will it get there? Probably, but it could depend on politics and what damage the leaders do, or intend to do, to our economy.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 130 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, A, AKAM, AA, AEP, APA, ADM, ADSK, BALL, BAX, BFH, BRKR, BBW, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CNC, CDAY, CF, CVX, CLNE, CLX, CNX, GLW, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DDS, EL, EXPI, FICO, FARO, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, GAP, GPRO, HTLD, HP, HUBG, ITW, ISRG, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LLY, LXU, M, MGY, MANH, MTRN, MTRX, MLI, NOV, NEU, JWN, NWPX, ON, OR, OMI, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PPG, PINC, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, RCKY, ROP, SAND, SLB, STR, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TDOC, TTD, TSCO, RIG, VRSN, VRTX, VC, WPM, WSC, IYE, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, IAT, IGV, IXN, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWS, EWT, THD, PXJ, SSO, XLE, XLV, XLB, XRT, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Tuesday 2/4/25. 2025 Forecast Update

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -122.75 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1106 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 523 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 583 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 301/553 or 54.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 57/120 or 47.5% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 217 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AMD, AES, APD, AKAM, ALB, AA, ALGT, ALL, AEO, AEP, APH, AON, APA, APOG, ATR, ASH, AVY, BZH, BERY, BMRN, BKH, BMY, BBW, CAL, CE, CX, CDAY, CF, CLF, CTSH, CXW, COTY, CMI, DHR, DECK, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DUK, EXP, EVRG, EVH, FDX, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FNV, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, GPN, GS, GPRO, HLIT, HTLD, HELE, HP, HWM, HUN, IDXX, INTC, IBKR, JAZZ, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, M, MGY, MANH, MRTN, MA, MRK, META, MGEE, MLKN, MOS, NFG, NOV, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ON, OR, OMI, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PCTY, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PG, PRU, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, RTX, RGS, RNG, ROK, ROG, ROP, ^GSPC, SAIA, SAND, SLB, SEE, SCI, SHW, SLGN, SR, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TXT, TTD, TZOO, UGI, UIS, UPS, UNH, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WU, WLK, WEX, WPM, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, IXN, IEO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, SPY, XLK, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,564.25    
 Monthly S1  42,493.08  1,928.83   
 Weekly S2  43,472.76  979.68   
 Daily S2  43,583.02  110.27   
 Monthly Pivot  43,773.72  190.70   
 Low  43,879.06  105.34   
 Weekly S1  43,947.33  68.27   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  44,002.46  55.13   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,152.38  149.91   
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,236.80  84.43   
 Open  44,268.15  31.35   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  44,298.50  30.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,321.23  22.72   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  44,421.91  100.68   
 Weekly Pivot  44,500.85  78.94   
 High  44,594.54  93.69   
 Daily R1  44,717.95  123.41   
 Weekly R1  44,975.42  257.48   
 Daily R2  45,013.98  38.56   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  45,528.94  514.95   
 Monthly R1  45,702.55  173.61   
 Monthly R2  46,983.19  1,280.64   

Tuesday 2/4/25. 2025 Forecast Update

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -122.75 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1106 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 523 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 583 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 301/553 or 54.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 57/120 or 47.5% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2025 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 217 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AMD, AES, APD, AKAM, ALB, AA, ALGT, ALL, AEO, AEP, APH, AON, APA, APOG, ATR, ASH, AVY, BZH, BERY, BMRN, BKH, BMY, BBW, CAL, CE, CX, CDAY, CF, CLF, CTSH, CXW, COTY, CMI, DHR, DECK, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DUK, EXP, EVRG, EVH, FDX, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FNV, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, GPN, GS, GPRO, HLIT, HTLD, HELE, HP, HWM, HUN, IDXX, INTC, IBKR, JAZZ, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, M, MGY, MANH, MRTN, MA, MRK, META, MGEE, MLKN, MOS, NFG, NOV, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ON, OR, OMI, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PCTY, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PG, PRU, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, RTX, RGS, RNG, ROK, ROG, ROP, ^GSPC, SAIA, SAND, SLB, SEE, SCI, SHW, SLGN, SR, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TXT, TTD, TZOO, UGI, UIS, UPS, UNH, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WU, WLK, WEX, WPM, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, IXN, IEO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, SPY, XLK, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2025 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  40,564.25    
 Monthly S1  42,493.08  1,928.83   
 Weekly S2  43,472.76  979.68   
 Daily S2  43,583.02  110.27   
 Monthly Pivot  43,773.72  190.70   
 Low  43,879.06  105.34   
 Weekly S1  43,947.33  68.27   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  44,002.46  55.13   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  44,152.38  149.91   
 50% Down from Intraday High  44,236.80  84.43   
 Open  44,268.15  31.35   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  44,298.50  30.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  44,321.23  22.72   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  44,421.91  100.68   
 Weekly Pivot  44,500.85  78.94   
 High  44,594.54  93.69   
 Daily R1  44,717.95  123.41   
 Weekly R1  44,975.42  257.48   
 Daily R2  45,013.98  38.56   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  45,528.94  514.95   
 Monthly R1  45,702.55  173.61   
 Monthly R2  46,983.19  1,280.64   

Monday 2/3/25. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow xxx on the daily scale.

At A, we see a nicely shaped broadening top chart pattern. I extended the bottom line to see how it matched recent price action.

A broadening top breaks out downward 40% of the time, which is what happened here at the lower end of the red trendline.

After that, the index bobbled up and down, eventually forming a potential head-and-shoulders top. I've identified the left shoulder (LS) and right one (RS). The index has to drop to B and close below the green line to signal a downward breakout. A breakout would confirm the pattern as valid. Otherwise, it's just squiggles on the price chart.

The picture is bearish and with Trump threatening action (tariffs) against our allies, it'll be bad for the US and bad for the markets.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 289.33 points.
Tuesday: Up 136.77 points.
Wednesday: Down 136.83 points.
Thursday: Up 168.61 points.
Friday: Down 337.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 120.41 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 329.86 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 60.71 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 45,054.36 on 01/31/2025.
     6.5% up from the low of 41,844.89 on 01/13/2025.
Nasdaq
     2.5% down from the high of 20,118.61 on 01/24/2025.
     4.2% up from the low of 18,831.91 on 01/13/2025.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 6,128.18 on 01/24/2025.
     4.6% up from the low of 5,773.31 on 01/13/2025.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  44,155  44,350  44,702  44,897  45,249 
Weekly  43,514  44,029  44,542  45,057  45,570 
Monthly  40,605  42,575  43,815  45,784  47,024 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,974  6,007  6,064  6,097  6,154 
Weekly  5,883  5,962  6,041  6,120  6,199 
Monthly  5,626  5,833  5,981  6,188  6,336 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  19,329  19,477  19,723  19,871  20,117 
Weekly  18,835  19,230  19,600  19,994  20,364 
Monthly  18,238  18,931  19,525  20,218  20,812 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AKAM, ALB, AA, ALGT, ALL, AEO, AEP, AMGN, APH, AR, APOG, AAPL, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BMRN, BBW, CF, CVX, CLNE, CLF, CL, CMTL, CCRN, CSGS, CMI, DECK, XRAY, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DUK, BOOM, XOM, EZPW, FDX, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GMS, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, THG, HIG, HP, HWM, HUBG, INCY, IBP, INTC, JAZZ, KALU, K, KELYA, KSS, LANC, LLY, M, MGY, MSFT, MUR, NOV, NWPX, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OR, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PPG, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROP, ^GSPC, SAND, SLB, SEIC, SCI, SHW, SKYW, TRGP, TDOC, TDC, TXT, TTD, UPS, VLO, MDRX, VRTX, WU, WEX, WPM, WMB, WSM, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IXN, SLV, IGE, IEO, ITB, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWT, THD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLE, XLF, XLV, SPY, XLK, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Securities Brokerage1. Securities Brokerage
2. E-Commerce2. Internet
3. Internet3. E-Commerce
4. Financial Services4. Financial Services
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Natural Gas (Diversified)
6. Telecom. Equipment6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Machinery
8. Natural Gas (Diversified)8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Medical Supplies9. Medical Supplies
10. Retail Store10. Insurance (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Food Processing50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Food Processing
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Petroleum (Producing)
53. Medical Services53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Medical Services
55. Short ETFs55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Chemical (Basic)56. Human Resources
57. Human Resources57. Homebuilding
58. Homebuilding58. Short ETFs
59. Biotechnology59. Biotechnology
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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