Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 10/03/2023
  Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%  
  Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%  
  Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%  
YTD
-0.4%  
 +9.6%  
-18.4%  
 +24.8%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023  
  Up arrow34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow850 or 725 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023
As of 10/03/2023
  Indus: 33,002 -430.97 -1.3%  
  Trans: 14,682 -115.52 -0.8%  
  Utils: 789 +6.29 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,059 -248.30 -1.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,229 -58.94 -1.4%  
YTD
-0.4%  
 +9.6%  
-18.4%  
 +24.8%  
 +10.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2023  
  Up arrow34,000 or 32,650 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow15,500 or 14,200 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow850 or 725 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow13,750 or 12,700 by 10/15/2023
  Up arrow4,425 or 4,175 by 10/15/2023

March 2023 Headlines

Archives


Friday 3/31/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 233 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AJRD, AES, ALB, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEL, AFG, AIG, ANIK, APA, APOG, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, BECN, BBBY, BAH, BCO, BR, CBT, CX, CF, CVX, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, ED, COP, CRH, CCRN, CTS, CMI, DDS, DOV, ECL, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EL, RE, XOM, FICO, FAST, FLS, FCX, IT, GL, GMS, GS, GGG, GFF, HIG, HQY, HL, HOV, JBHT, INFN, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, KALU, KEYS, KLAC, LPLA, LXU, M, MGY, MRO, MLM, MAS, MRCY, MSFT, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NFLX, NEWR, JWN, NOC, NVDA, OLN, OMC, PKG, PAYX, PKI, PXD, PFG, PGR, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RRC, RJF, REGN, RGS, RGA, RNG, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SMG, SMTC, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SCCO, LUV, SPSC, SRDX, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TSCO, TG, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VFC, VRTX, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, IYM, IYC, ITB, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLB, SPY, XLK, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTRectangle bottom      03/10/202303/30/2023Medical Supplies
APAPipe bottom      03/13/202303/13/2023Petroleum (Producing)
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Building Materials
ATRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Packaging and Container
ACGLPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Food Processing
ARWHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202303/24/2023Electronics
ASHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Chemical (Basic)
AVNTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BMRNHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/10/202303/24/2023Biotechnology
BADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Aerospace/Defense
BCOPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Industrial Services
CBTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Chemical (Diversified)
CXPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Cement and Aggregates
CNCDiamond bottom      03/15/202303/30/2023Medical Services
CVXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
CSCODouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/01/202303/13/2023Computers and Peripherals
COPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
CCKDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/17/202303/24/2023Packaging and Container
FANGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Petroleum (Producing)
EIXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (West)
EMRHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202303/24/2023Computers and Peripherals
EOGPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
EXPIHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/01/202303/22/2023E-Commerce
FASTTriangle, symmetrical      02/24/202303/30/2023Retail Building Supply
FRDTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/202303/30/2023Building Materials
GPNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Computer Software and Svcs
HAYNPennant      03/17/202303/30/2023Building Materials
HNITriangle, symmetrical      03/08/202303/24/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
IEXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Machinery
ITGRDiamond top      02/28/202303/21/2023Electronics
KMTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Metal Fabricating
LHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Medical Services
LMTTriangle, symmetrical      03/14/202303/30/2023Aerospace/Defense
MANHPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023IT Services
MLMPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Cement and Aggregates
MDCPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Homebuilding
MRCYPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Computers and Peripherals
NFGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
NOCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/15/202303/23/2023Aerospace/Defense
OGEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/10/202303/24/2023Electric Utility (Central)
OLNPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Chemical (Basic)
PAYXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/23/2023IT Services
PXDPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Producing)
PGRPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
KWRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Apparel
RMBSPipe bottom      01/30/202302/06/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGAPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Life)
ROKDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Diversified Co.
ROLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/01/202303/13/2023Industrial Services
SAICDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023IT Services
SMTCDead-cat bounce      03/30/202303/30/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SKYWPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Air Transport
SCCOPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
LUVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Air Transport
SUMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Cement and Aggregates
SRDXPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Medical Supplies
TPRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/27/2023Apparel
TRGPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
TDOCTriangle, symmetrical      03/20/202303/30/2023Healthcare Information
TKRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Metal Fabricating
TOLTriangle, symmetrical      02/21/202303/30/2023Homebuilding
TDGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Aerospace/Defense
RIGPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VFCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Apparel
VMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Cement and Aggregates
WLKPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Chemical (Basic)
WWDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 3/30/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.8% or 210.16 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 66 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 37 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 29 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 56.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 254/449 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not much going on in this picture, so I had to do some hunting. At B, it's hard to see but there's a triple bottom.

It confirms as a valid pattern when price closes above the highest peak between the three bottoms. The rise after the breakout almost hit its target.

At A is a gap. Lots of people put faith in gaps, that they will support price. In my tests, they were the worst "supporting" patterns (versus peaks and valleys and round numbers). As support in an uptrend, they work 20% of the time.

The chart shows the recent peak nearing the Wed/Thursday peaks, so that's overhead resistance.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 247 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, APD, ALK, ALB, ALGT, AMZN, AXP, AFG, AMWD, APH, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ANET, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BALL, BECN, BIG, BKNG, BSX, BCO, BR, BBW, CBT, CX, CENX, CRL, CINF, CTAS, CSCO, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, CXW, GLW, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CMI, DVN, FANG, DOV, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EOG, RE, XOM, FICO, FAST, FLS, FORM, FTV, FCX, FDP, FRD, IT, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HQY, HOV, HWM, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KMB, LMT, L, LPLA, MHO, MGY, MAN, MRO, MLM, MRCY, MU, MSFT, MOS, MUR, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NOC, ORI, OLN, OMCL, PKG, PDCO, PEN, PXD, PPG, PFG, PGR, RRC, RJF, REGN, RGS, RGA, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SBH, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SHW, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TRGP, TGT, TDY, TPX, TXT, TDG, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VLO, VRSN, VC, VMC, WLK, WEX, ITA, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IAT, IGV, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWL, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VIS, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,609.82    
 Monthly S1  11,268.03  658.21   
 Weekly S2  11,367.01  98.98   
 Monthly Pivot  11,641.01  274.00   
 Weekly S1  11,646.62  5.61   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  11,778.81  132.19   
 Low  11,823.35  44.54   
 Weekly Pivot  11,830.31  6.96   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  11,852.53  22.22   
 Open  11,855.59  3.06   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,868.52  12.93   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,882.47  13.95   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,896.43  13.95   
 Daily Pivot  11,897.06  0.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,926.24  29.18   
 High  11,941.60  15.36   
 Daily R1  11,970.78  29.18   
 Daily R2  12,015.31  44.54   
 Weekly R1  12,109.92  94.61   
 Weekly R2  12,293.61  183.68   
 Monthly R1  12,299.22  5.61   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  12,672.20  372.98   

Wednesday 3/29/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Three trading days ago, the CPI signaled a bullish turn. Today, the index appears to be retracing that strong push upward. I'm concerned that the index could continue lower.

Until the signal changes (and it could if the market makes a big move), the chart is bullish but it seems to be getting weaker. Indeed, it has been trending lower from the February peak.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 46% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line is easiest to see. It's slightly weaker today compared to a week ago. The line is moving sideways, struggling to find direction.

This chart is probably neutral, meaning that the red line could soar as easily as it could plummet.

Taken together, the market seems to be in a state of change, as if it's waiting for something to happen (such as a surprise FED meeting to change interest rates). A large move in either direction could start a new trend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, ALB, AEE, AFG, APH, APA, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ANET, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BERY, BKH, BFH, BCO, CBT, CALM, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COTY, CCRN, XRAY, D, DOV, DUK, EMN, EOG, EQT, RE, XOM, FICO, FISV, FLS, FORM, IT, GPN, GL, GMS, GS, GPRO, GFF, HIG, HQY, HSY, HOV, HWM, HURC, INCY, IBP, IIIN, PODD, IBKR, TILE, INTU, KALU, KEYS, KLIC, LANC, LEN, LPLA, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MRCY, META, MU, MUR, NEU, NOC, ORI, OLN, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PATK, PEN, PFE, PNW, PXD, POR, PFG, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RRC, RJF, RGS, RGA, ROL, ROST, RES, CRM, SBH, SCHW, SCI, SHW, STR, SKYW, SCCO, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TRGP, TPX, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VFC, VMI, WLK, WOLF, FTEC, FDN, QQQ, IAT, IEO, IYF, ECH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWY, TUR, QLD, ILF, XLE, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/28/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 194.55 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 891 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 503 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 388 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 261/468 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Wyeth: WYE stock.

$ $ $

I released another version of Patternz version 7.0.0.55. This supports two more quote providers (one of which you'll have to include the exchange you want quotes from, such as AAPL.US for apple computer in the US) and includes a SR (support/resistance) button on the chart form. Click it on/off to show or hide the lines. I'm nearing the end of my tweaks. I don't plan on adding any new features from here, but need to look at some graphics issues with cryptocurrencies.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, ACIW, AEIS, AES, AFL, ALKS, AMZN, AMN, APH, AR, ATR, ANET, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BAH, BRC, BMY, BR, CBT, CPB, CE, CLS, CIEN, CTAS, CLX, CNX, CSGP, COTY, DDS, EMN, EFX, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FORM, FDP, GGG, HE, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, DHI, ITW, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPG, INTU, KBH, KMT, KEYS, LH, LANC, LEG, LEN, L, LPLA, MANH, MCHX, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MU, NFG, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PKE, PEN, PRFT, PKI, PCG, POR, PPG, PPL, QCOM, RMBS, RGA, RHI, ROG, ROL, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SKYW, SMAR, SR, SPSC, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, UNH, VECO, VEEV, MDRX, V, WMT, WLK, WMB, WOLF, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IYM, IYK, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QQQ, IHI, ECH, EWJ, QLD, PPA, PBE, PJP, XLB, XAR, XLK, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,250.66    
 Monthly S1  31,341.37  1,090.71   
 Weekly S2  31,376.34  34.97   
 Weekly S1  31,904.21  527.87   
 Daily S2  32,136.99  232.78   
 Low  32,276.72  139.73   
 Open  32,276.72  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  32,284.53  7.81   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  32,333.05  48.52   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,386.46  53.41   
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,420.36  33.90   
 Daily Pivot  32,424.27  3.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,432.08  7.81   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,454.26  22.18   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  32,520.53  66.27   
 High  32,564.00  43.47   
 Daily R1  32,571.81  7.81   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  32,711.55  139.73   
 Weekly R1  32,860.92  149.38   
 Weekly R2  33,289.76  428.84   
 Monthly R1  33,611.24  321.48   
 Monthly R2  34,790.40  1,179.16   

Monday 3/27/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

At A is a chart pattern called a broadening top. That's where the price swings widen over time, forming what looks like a megaphone.

B shows a similar pattern, called a broadening bottom. It's the same as the top version except for the direction price enters the pattern.

Broadening bottoms (B) breakout upward 60% of the time, according to my research of the chart pattern. That's not much above random, but that's what I found when studying over 1,000 of them.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 382.6 points.
Tuesday: Up 316.02 points.
Wednesday: Down 530.49 points.
Thursday: Up 75.14 points.
Friday: Up 132.28 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 375.55 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 193.45 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 54.35 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     2.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     3.6% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     15.2% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     5.3% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     4.7% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,648  31,943  32,100  32,395  32,552 
Weekly  31,311  31,775  32,268  32,731  33,225 
Monthly  30,186  31,212  32,456  33,482  34,726 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,887  3,929  3,951  3,993  4,015 
Weekly  3,843  3,907  3,973  4,037  4,104 
Monthly  3,683  3,827  3,953  4,097  4,222 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,618  11,721  11,774  11,877  11,929 
Weekly  11,333  11,578  11,796  12,042  12,260 
Monthly  10,576  11,200  11,607  12,231  12,638 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ABC, APA, ASH, AZTA, BALL, BECN, BKH, BSX, CPB, CLF, CLX, CAG, COST, COTY, CR, CW, FTV, HE, HL, HSIC, HOLX, DHI, IDA, IEX, ILMN, IIIN, IPI, ISRG, JAZZ, LHX, LNC, LPLA, LXU, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, ^IXIC, NEWR, NOVT, OMCL, OXM, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PKI, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, ^GSPC, SLB, NOW, SKX, SMAR, SWN, SCS, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TMO, RIG, WAT, WOLF, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, QQQ, IYH, IYZ, IHI, EWO, EWW, EWT, QLD, DBA, PHO, SSO, XLV, SPY, USO, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Shoe3. Metals and Mining (Div.)
4. Metals and Mining (Div.)4. Shoe
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Internet
7. Metal Fabricating7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Apparel
9. Diversified Co.9. Retail Building Supply
10. Advertising10. Metal Fabricating
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Medical Services51. Insurance (Diversified)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Chemical (Diversified)
53. Healthcare Information53. Medical Services
54. Natural Gas (Distributor)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Insurance (Life)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Electric Utility (East)57. Healthcare Information
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Insurance (Life)
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Producing)
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/24/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AFL, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AEL, ABC, BECN, BERY, BKH, BAH, BCO, CNC, CF, CVX, CI, CLF, CLX, CNA, CAG, GLW, COTY, CRH, DVN, FANG, DSGR, BOOM, ELV, EOG, EVRG, EZPW, FDS, FDX, FCX, GMS, GFF, HL, HSII, HON, IPI, NVTA, KALU, KBH, LH, LAMR, LDOS, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MANH, MRO, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NFLX, OXY, OMCL, OXM, PATK, PEN, PXD, PPL, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REGN, ROL, ROST, R, SLB, SAIC, NOW, STR, SMAR, SCS, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TJX, TDG, TZOO, TWLO, SLCA, UNH, MDRX, WERN, WSM, WDAY, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FDN, FXI, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EZA, THD, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, XLY, XLE, XLF, XRT, XAR, USO, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DOXScallop, descending      02/15/202303/21/2023IT Services
BAHScallop, descending      03/06/202303/21/2023IT Services
CXPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Cement and Aggregates
CHKPTriple bottom      02/17/202303/13/2023E-Commerce
CHSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/03/202303/16/2023Apparel
GFSTriple bottom      02/23/202303/13/2023Semiconductor
GOOGLDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/24/202303/13/2023Internet
IIINTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/202303/06/2023Building Materials
PODDTriple bottom      02/22/202303/10/2023Medical Supplies
LMTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/13/202303/08/2023Aerospace/Defense
MASDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/09/2023Building Materials
NEUDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/24/202303/15/2023Chemical (Specialty)
PENPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Medical Supplies
PHMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/21/202303/13/2023Homebuilding
REGNUgly double bottom      01/09/202302/17/2023Biotechnology
SMARPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023E-Commerce
SNPSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/21/202303/13/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TFXPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Diversified Co.
VRTXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/27/202303/08/2023Biotechnology
SOXXTriple bottom      02/22/202303/13/2023Semiconductor
MGKDiamond bottom      02/27/202303/15/2023None

 

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Thursday 3/23/23. Cryptocurrency Ethereum: Broadening Top

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.6% or -190.15 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 96 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 49 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 47 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 253/448 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of cryptocurrency Ethereum on the daily scale.

This is almost a picture perfect image of a broadening top chart pattern. It appears as price trends upward into the start of the pattern.

From there, it makes higher swings upward and lower swings downward, looking like a megaphone, B.

At A, the currency has paused. This could be a partial decline. That's when price attempts to reach the bottom line, doesn't make it, and breaks out upward immediately. The signal is correct 72% of the time.

Is that what will happen this time (an upward breakout)? Answer: I don't know. The probabilities were for stocks, not cryptocurrencies.

$ $ $

My neighbor backed into his neighbors mailbox, looked at it, and walked back to his pickup, parked it, and started washing his car as if nothing had happened.

He didn't leave a note, so I sent him an email to do the right thing and tell of the accident. Will it work?

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AA, AXP, ABC, AON, ACGL, AWI, ATO, ADP, AVA, AXS, BBBY, BAH, BG, CACI, CNC, CDAY, CF, CVX, CI, CLF, CLX, CNA, CAG, CONN, GLW, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, DHR, DVN, FANG, ^DJI, EIX, ELV, EOG, EFX, EVRG, EXPI, FDS, FDX, FE, FORM, FCX, GME, GD, GE, GMS, GFF, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HON, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, IBKR, IPG, NVTA, K, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, MANH, MRO, MA, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MGEE, MOS, MUR, NBR, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OMCL, ON, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PAYX, PEN, PNW, PXD, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, ROL, ROST, R, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, NOW, STR, SMAR, LUV, SR, SPSC, SXI, SCS, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TMO, TJX, TDG, TZOO, TWLO, UNH, VECO, VRTX, V, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XRT, XAR, XLK, XLU, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,486.19    
 Weekly S2  10,684.98  198.79   
 Monthly S1  11,078.08  393.10   
 Weekly S1  11,177.47  99.39   
 Daily S2  11,436.46  258.99   
 Weekly Pivot  11,475.29  38.83   
 Daily S1  11,553.21  77.92   
 Monthly Pivot  11,574.68  21.47   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  11,666.85  92.17   
 Close  11,669.96  3.11   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,783.60  113.64   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,799.46  15.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,840.42  40.96   
 Open  11,857.50  17.08   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,881.38  23.88   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  11,900.35  18.97   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  11,967.78  67.43   
 High  12,013.99  46.21   
 Daily R2  12,130.74  116.75   
 Monthly R1  12,166.57  35.83   
 Weekly R2  12,265.60  99.03   
 Monthly R2  12,663.17  397.57   

Wednesday 3/22/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has signaled a bullish move has begun. The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart attests to that. It comes after a long downtrend that began in February. That move bottomed in March.

Because the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, it's too soon to declare the uptrend has staying power, but it looks promising.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line is unchanged from a week ago but the blue line is slightly stronger. Like the prior chart, this chart shows that weakness began at the late January or early February peak.

What does all of this mean? The prior chart is bullish but it could be a premature signal. This chart is neutral, really. So it's difficult to say we'll recover from here, but that's my guess.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, DOX, ABC, ACGL, ATO, AVA, BSET, BBY, BIO, BKH, CLS, CDAY, CVX, CLX, CMTL, CSGP, CRH, CROX, DHR, DVN, FANG, DTE, EIX, EFX, EXC, EXPI, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FCX, HLIT, HOV, IDA, IDXX, INCY, ISRG, NVTA, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, RAMP, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MLKN, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, OMCL, OXM, PANW, PKE, PEN, PNW, POR, PPL, PEG, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, SMG, NOW, SKYW, SMAR, SWN, SR, SPSC, TPR, TRGP, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TWLO, VLO, VMI, VECO, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYE, IDU, FDN, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, XLY, XLU, UNG, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/21/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Xcel Energy

The Dow climbed by 1.2% or 382.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 319 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 174 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 145 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/467 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Xcel Energy: XEL stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 101 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ATSG, AA, ALL, ABC, APOG, ATR, AIZ, BMI, BBBY, BERY, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CX, CENX, CF, CHKP, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CXW, CW, DFS, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EXC, FDP, IT, HAYN, HL, HSII, HP, HNI, HOV, IDA, NSP, IBP, PODD, IBKR, IPI, IRM, KBAL, KSS, LH, LLY, M, MGY, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MLKN, MOS, PKG, PEN, PSTG, RGS, RLI, RES, SLGN, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, RIG, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, WERN, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IGE, EIS, EWJ, EWS, TUR, PBE, PXJ, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLB, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,766.97    
 Monthly S1  31,005.78  1,238.80   
 Weekly S2  31,116.89  111.12   
 Weekly S1  31,680.74  563.84   
 Daily S2  31,724.59  43.85   
 Low  31,872.33  147.74   
 Open  31,872.33  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  31,984.58  112.25   
 Weekly Pivot  31,993.66  9.08   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,028.09  34.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,076.20  48.11   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,124.31  48.11   
 Daily Pivot  32,132.33  8.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,244.58  112.25   
 High  32,280.07  35.49   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  32,392.32  112.25   
 Daily R2  32,540.07  147.74   
 Weekly R1  32,557.51  17.44   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  32,668.62  111.12   
 Weekly R2  32,870.43  201.81   
 Monthly R1  33,907.43  1,036.99   
 Monthly R2  35,570.27  1,662.85   

Monday 3/20/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I don't show enough of the chart but it looks to me like the index could drop as far as B (where the uptrend began) to A (a minor high). That AB region could support price.

CD is a double top, confirmed when the index closes below the blue line, which is the lowest low between the two peaks.

Notice at D, a thick top, resists the pullback E, from going higher.

The drop from D to E to where it is now, is a pattern called a measured move down. That pattern suggests price will rise up to the retrace (the corrective phase of the MMD) which ends at E. That's about 32,900.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 90.5 points.
Tuesday: Up 336.26 points.
Wednesday: Down 280.83 points.
Thursday: Up 371.98 points.
Friday: Down 384.57 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 47.66 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 491.62 points or 4.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.05 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.2% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     1.4% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     5.2% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     13.3% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.6% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     3.2% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,447  31,655  31,936  32,143  32,425 
Weekly  30,989  31,426  31,866  32,302  32,743 
Monthly  29,639  30,751  32,541  33,652  35,443 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,868  3,892  3,926  3,950  3,983 
Weekly  3,741  3,829  3,897  3,984  4,052 
Monthly  3,611  3,764  3,962  4,115  4,313 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,445  11,538  11,655  11,748  11,866 
Weekly  10,672  11,151  11,462  11,941  12,252 
Monthly  10,473  11,052  11,562  12,140  12,650 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMD, A, APD, AA, ATR, ANET, AVY, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BKNG, BMY, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CALM, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CIEN, CLF, DSGR, DRQ, EXP, EL, EZPW, FDX, FDP, FRD, HAYN, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, IBP, ITGR, IPI, IRM, JNJ, LH, LDOS, LNC, LMT, LOW, M, MGY, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, MSFT, MOS, NFLX, JWN, NVDA, ORI, PCTY, PKI, DGX, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROL, ROP, RES, SMTC, SXI, TECH, TPX, RIG, TG, TWLO, SLCA, WERN, WSM, WOLF, IYM, IEZ, IYH, THD, PXJ, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Metals and Mining (Div.)
3. Metals and Mining (Div.)3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Shoe4. Internet
5. Semiconductor5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Internet6. Shoe
7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing7. Apparel
8. Apparel8. Metal Fabricating
9. Retail Building Supply9. Machinery
10. Metal Fabricating10. Diversified Co.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Long ETFs
51. Insurance (Diversified)51. Chemical (Diversified)
52. Chemical (Diversified)52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Medical Services53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Medical Services
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Healthcare Information57. Healthcare Information
58. Insurance (Life)58. Electric Utility (Central)
59. Petroleum (Producing)59. Electric Utility (East)
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/17/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AA, DOX, ABC, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BKNG, BLDR, CX, CENX, CIEN, CLF, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, DRQ, DTE, EXP, EMN, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FTNT, FRD, GME, GFS, HAYN, HSII, HP, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, INCY, IBP, PODD, IPI, KELYA, LANC, LEN, LNC, LXU, MTSI, M, MGY, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, NBR, NFLX, NEU, NXGN, NWPX, NOVT, ASGN, ON, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PGR, DGX, RLI, ROP, RES, SWN, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TDY, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UPS, UNH, VFC, VECO, VEEV, VRTX, V, WSO, WERN, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IHI, EWK, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ILF. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADBEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/24/202303/13/2023Computer Software and Svcs
AAPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Aerospace/Defense
ALGTTriple top      02/02/202303/03/2023Air Transport
AIGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202201/09/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ATRPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Packaging and Container
AVADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/01/202303/10/2023Electric Utility (West)
BMIPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Precision Instrument
BKNGPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Internet
BLDRPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Retail Building Supply
CALDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/21/2023Shoe
CNPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/01/202303/10/2023Electric Utility (Central)
CENXPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLFPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
COTYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/14/202303/06/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
CCRNPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Human Resources
^DJUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/02/202303/10/2023None
DRQPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DUKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/02/202303/10/2023Electric Utility (East)
EXPPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Cement and Aggregates
FISVDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/15/202303/06/2023IT Services
FTVHead-and-shoulders top      01/17/202303/06/2023Industrial Services
HSCFalling wedge      03/07/202303/16/2023Diversified Co.
HAYNPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Building Materials
HELEHead-and-shoulders complex top      01/09/202303/07/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
HPPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Petroleum (Producing)
IEXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/17/202303/06/2023Machinery
ILMNTriple bottom      02/10/202303/10/2023Biotechnology
IBPPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Retail Building Supply
IPIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/16/202303/03/2023Chemical (Diversified)
ISRGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/02/202303/13/2023Medical Supplies
KMTPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Metal Fabricating
LLYDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/01/202303/08/2023Drug
LHead-and-shoulders top      01/31/202302/27/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MTRNPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
MGEETriangle, descending      01/20/202303/10/2023Electric Utility (Central)
MCODiamond bottom      02/24/202303/16/2023Information Services
MOSPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Chemical (Diversified)
MURThree Falling Peaks      01/27/202303/03/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
NJRBroadening top      02/14/202303/16/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
JWNPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Retail Store
NOCHead-and-shoulders top      02/13/202303/08/2023Aerospace/Defense
OXYThree Falling Peaks      01/27/202303/08/2023Petroleum (Producing)
PNWHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      01/24/202303/01/2023Electric Utility (West)
QTWODead-cat bounce      03/13/202303/13/2023E-Commerce
RLIPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RESPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RHead-and-shoulders top      02/02/202303/01/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCHWDead-cat bounce      03/08/202303/13/2023Securities Brokerage
SXIPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Diversified Co.
TDYUgly double bottom      06/17/202207/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
TERBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/22/202303/16/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TDGTriple top      02/09/202303/07/2023Aerospace/Defense
RIGPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TRVTriple top      01/06/202301/25/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
UHALPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SLCAPipe top      02/27/202303/06/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
WSOHead-and-shoulders top      02/03/202303/06/2023Retail Building Supply
WERNPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WEXPipe top      02/06/202302/13/2023Information Services
WSCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/22/202303/03/2023Industrial Services
XELDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/01/202303/10/2023Electric Utility (West)
XLKDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/02/202303/13/2023IT Services

 

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Thursday 3/16/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.1% or 5.9 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 733 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 406 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 327 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 252/447 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The 1s are left shoulders of a complex head-and-shoulders bottom. The 2s are the right shoulders. The head is the lowest low in the pattern, between 1 and 2.

Notice that there are more 2s than 1s and that's odd. It makes me suspect that this chart pattern is unreliable.

Indeed, the rise after price closed above the red neckline (A) didn't go as far up as it should have (the height of the pattern at the head to the neckline directly above added to the neckline pierce gives the typical target).

Notice that at B, the index finds support at the neckline.

The index looks to find resistance at 11,500. So it may stall there or even turn down. After a big plunge today and swift recovery, we might see the index gap open higher as a snap back recovery.

With that, I think I've covered all of the bases: down, sideways, up. 8-)

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Here's a symbol list of 287 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, AMD, AJRD, AFL, A, APD, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AA, ALGT, ALL, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, AME, AMGN, APH, AON, APA, ATR, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BERY, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BFH, BCO, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CE, CLS, CX, CENX, CF, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CONN, COP, GLW, CCK, CMI, CW, DVN, FANG, DFS, DSGR, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EME, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EVH, EXC, EXPI, XOM, EZPW, FDX, FIS, FLS, FORM, FCX, GD, GNW, GMS, GS, GFF, GES, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HSII, HP, HON, HOV, HWM, HUM, IEX, ITW, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IPI, KELYA, KMT, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LH, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, L, LPLA, LXU, M, MGY, MRO, MLM, MA, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, MSFT, MLKN, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NOV, NCR, NEU, NXGN, NWPX, OXY, OLN, OMC, PKG, PTEN, PXD, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PRU, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RGA, RLI, RHI, RES, SLB, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, VLO, VEEV, VMC, WERN, WLK, WEX, WSC, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IYH, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWA, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, TUR, EWU, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, UNG, USO, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,503.02    
 Weekly S2  10,717.88  214.87   
 Monthly S1  10,968.53  250.65   
 Weekly S1  11,075.97  107.43   
 Daily S2  11,164.00  88.04   
 Low  11,238.44  74.44   
 Open  11,291.17  52.73   
 Daily S1  11,299.03  7.86   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,318.45  19.43   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,343.17  24.72   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,367.89  24.72   
 Daily Pivot  11,373.46  5.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,434.05  60.59   
 High  11,447.90  13.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  11,451.94  4.04   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  11,508.49  56.54   
 Monthly Pivot  11,559.38  50.89   
 Daily R2  11,582.92  23.55   
 Weekly R1  11,810.03  227.10   
 Monthly R1  12,024.89  214.87   
 Weekly R2  12,186.00  161.11   
 Monthly R2  12,615.74  429.73   

Wednesday 3/15/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

After the two bank failures took the indices down Friday, they recovered and the CPI turned bullish as the green vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows.

The markets made a nice recovery today.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 40%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines are worse today than they were a week ago. In fact, the red line took a steep dive over the last few days. Today, the red line moved higher, following the markets upward.

The CPI chart is bullish. This chart is ambiguous. I say that because the red line has made a big drop and only a slight recovery. You can argue that the CPI chart followed the same path: big drop and slight recovery.

So where does that leave us? I thought yesterday that buying something in the financial sector (like an ETF), would serve as a short-term play. Buy when quality securities are hit because of the troubles of another. I think it's too early to say whether today's snap-back rally will last.

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Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, APD, ALK, AA, AEL, AXP, AMGN, APOG, ATR, AGO, AXS, BMI, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BBY, BKNG, BAH, BFH, BLDR, BG, CX, CNP, CENX, CI, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CNX, CAG, DECK, XRAY, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, WIRE, EXPD, FISV, FDP, GIS, GNW, GL, GMS, GES, HIG, HE, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HELE, HP, HSIC, HOLX, HON, HOV, JBHT, IDA, IBP, PODD, IPI, JKHY, KSS, LANC, LNC, LMT, LPLA, LXU, M, MGY, MKTX, MRTN, MTRN, MRCY, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NXGN, JWN, NOC, NUS, PKE, PEN, PPL, PINC, PRU, QTWO, RGA, RLI, ROL, RES, R, CRM, SMAR, LUV, SR, SXI, TDOC, RIG, TZOO, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, UNH, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, WRB, WMT, WERN, WEX, WDAY, IYM, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IYH, IEO, EWJ, EWM, EWY, THD, PXJ, XLV, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/14/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Ugly Bottom Tutorial

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -90.5 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1083 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 513 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 570 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/467 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring an ugly bottom tutorial.

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Here's a symbol list of 239 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, AFL, ALRM, ALK, ALGT, ALL, AYX, DOX, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BSET, BBY, BIO, BA, BOOT, BSX, BFH, BCO, BBW, BG, CAL, CPB, CLS, CX, CF, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, COP, CRH, CCK, CSGS, CW, DVN, FANG, DFS, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EME, EMR, WIRE, RE, EVH, EXC, EZPW, FIS, FISV, FORM, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GMS, GS, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HP, HSY, DHI, IEX, ILMN, IIIN, PODD, IBKR, TILE, JKHY, KELYA, KMT, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LNC, RAMP, L, LPLA, LXU, M, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MRCY, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, JWN, NWPX, ORI, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PRU, QTWO, RMBS, RJF, RTX, RGA, RNG, RHI, RES, R, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, SIGI, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SCS, TPR, TPX, TXT, TRV, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VFC, V, VC, WRB, WERN, WU, WEX, ITA, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IAT, SLV, IEO, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWP, THD, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, IXN, ILF, XLE, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,096.61    
 Weekly S2  30,602.78  506.17   
 Monthly S1  30,957.88  355.10   
 Weekly S1  31,210.96  253.08   
 Daily S2  31,279.31  68.35   
 Daily S1  31,549.22  269.92   
 Low  31,624.87  75.65   
 Close  31,819.14  194.27   
 Open  31,819.93  0.79   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,859.98  40.05   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  31,894.79  34.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,932.61  37.82   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,005.24  72.63   
 Daily R1  32,164.70  159.47   
 High  32,240.35  75.65   
 Weekly Pivot  32,391.59  151.24   
 Daily R2  32,510.27  118.68   
 Monthly Pivot  32,644.67  134.41   
 Weekly R1  32,999.77  355.10   
 Monthly R1  33,505.94  506.17   
 Weekly R2  34,180.40  674.46   
 Monthly R2  35,192.73  1,012.34   

Monday 3/13/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The three peaks Pattern, 1, 2, 3, is either a triple top or a three falling peaks chart pattern. It confirms as a valid chart pattern.

Pattern A is a symmetrical triangle with an upward breakout that leads to a big and strong two bar rally. From there, the index has eased lower as the blue lines attest.

It looks as if the downtrend is gathering steam. I drew the bottom blue line parallel to the top one as of the nearest minor low from the end of the chart. Notice that today's (Friday's) price bar cuts through the line, signaling a downward breakout.

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I pre-released a new version of Patternz, 7.0.0.51 which has big speed improvements, with faster loading and faster candle processing. I'm still working on improving the program's features.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 40.47 points.
Tuesday: Down 574.98 points.
Wednesday: Down 58.06 points.
Thursday: Down 543.54 points.
Friday: Down 345.22 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1481.33 points or 4.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 550.12 points or 4.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 184.05 points or 4.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     0.4% up from the low of 31,783.41 on 03/10/2023.
Nasdaq
     9.2% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     8.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     8.0% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     1.8% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,400  31,655  32,038  32,293  32,677 
Weekly  30,633  31,271  32,422  33,060  34,211 
Monthly  30,127  31,018  32,675  33,566  35,223 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,793  3,827  3,881  3,915  3,968 
Weekly  3,697  3,779  3,929  4,011  4,161 
Monthly  3,631  3,746  3,961  4,077  4,292 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,922  11,031  11,202  11,311  11,482 
Weekly  10,619  10,879  11,354  11,613  12,088 
Monthly  10,405  10,772  11,461  11,828  12,517 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 251 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, APD, ATSG, ALK, ALB, ALGT, AYX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AIG, APH, ANIK, APOG, AAPL, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BKH, BOOT, BR, BBW, BG, CLS, CX, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CIEN, CTAS, CSCO, CNO, CNX, CTSH, CMCO, COST, COTY, CR, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, DOV, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, RE, EVRG, EVH, EXC, EXPD, FAST, FIS, FLS, FORM, GPS, IT, GPN, GL, GMS, GS, HBI, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HOLX, DHI, HUM, IEX, IDXX, NSP, IIIN, TILE, INTU, JKHY, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LRCX, LEG, LNC, RAMP, LXU, M, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MA, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRCY, META, MGEE, MLKN, MYGN, NFG, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NKE, NI, NWPX, NOVT, OXY, OLN, OMC, ASGN, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, PKI, PNW, PPL, QTWO, KWR, RMBS, RJF, RTX, RGA, RNG, RHI, ROK, RES, R, SCHW, SAIC, SEIC, SMTC, SHOP, LUV, SWX, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TECH, TPX, TKR, TDG, TRV, TZOO, TWLO, UNM, VFC, VECO, VRSN, V, WERN, WU, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, QLD, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IXN, XLP, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLI, XRT, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Metals and Mining (Div.)2. Metals and Mining (Div.)
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Homebuilding
4. Internet4. Shoe
5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment5. Internet
6. Shoe6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
7. Apparel7. Metal Fabricating
8. Metal Fabricating8. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
9. Machinery9. Apparel
10. Diversified Co.10. Securities Brokerage
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Long ETFs50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Telecom. Equipment
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Medical Services
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Medical Services54. Natural Gas (Distributor)
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Healthcare Information57. Short ETFs
58. Electric Utility (Central)58. Natural Gas (Diversified)
59. Electric Utility (East)59. Electric Utility (Central)
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Electric Utility (East)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/10/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 237 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, A, ATSG, AEP, AEL, AMWD, AME, APH, APA, APOG, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ASH, AIZ, ATO, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BKH, BA, BR, BBW, CPB, CE, CX, CNC, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CTAS, CSCO, CL, CMCO, CMTL, COP, COST, CCK, DHR, FANG, ^DJU, ^DJT, ECL, EIX, ELV, EME, WIRE, EOG, EXC, EXPD, FAST, FE, FLS, FMC, FTV, IT, GE, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HSIC, HD, HWM, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, IPG, IPI, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, IRM, JKHY, JAZZ, KELYA, KMT, LAMR, LNC, L, MANH, MRO, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRX, MRCY, META, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NJR, NKE, NI, NUS, NTNX, OXY, OGE, OLN, OUT, OMI, PKG, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PG, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RMBS, RTX, RGS, RGA, ROK, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SRE, SMTC, SHOP, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, TGT, TDC, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, TDG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TWLO, UHAL, UPS, VFC, VMI, VRSN, VMC, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, IYK, IYC, FTEC, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IAT, IGV, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLP, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, VIS, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/14/202303/06/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ANIKDead-cat bounce      03/07/202303/07/2023Biotechnology
APOGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/03/202303/03/2023Building Materials
AAPLPipe bottom      02/21/202302/27/2023Computers and Peripherals
ARCBRoof, inverted      02/08/202303/09/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AVYTriangle, descending      02/07/202303/06/2023Packaging and Container
AXSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/27/202302/09/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
REDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/09/202303/01/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXPDPipe bottom      02/21/202302/27/2023Air Transport
FISVDiamond top      02/08/202303/01/2023IT Services
GNWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/15/202302/27/2023Insurance (Life)
GPNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/15/2023Computer Software and Svcs
GOOGLPipe bottom      02/21/202302/27/2023Internet
GGGTriangle, descending      02/09/202303/09/2023Machinery
GFFHead-and-shoulders top      01/18/202302/16/2023Building Materials
HSCHorn top      02/13/202302/27/2023Diversified Co.
HAYNTriangle, symmetrical      01/24/202302/28/2023Building Materials
HNIHead-and-shoulders top      02/03/202303/03/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
DHIBroadening bottom      02/22/202303/03/2023Homebuilding
HOVPipe bottom      02/13/202302/21/2023Homebuilding
INTCScallop, descending      02/15/202303/06/2023Semiconductor
IPGPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Advertising
MANHDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/15/202303/06/2023IT Services
MADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202303/01/2023Financial Services
MTRXScallop, descending      02/07/202303/06/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NXGNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/15/2023Healthcare Information
ORITriple top      01/26/202302/28/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PYPLScallop, descending      02/02/202303/06/2023Financial Services
PGRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/17/202303/09/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
QTWOThree Falling Peaks      02/02/202303/03/2023E-Commerce
SAICDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/16/202303/03/2023IT Services
SMGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/16/202303/06/2023Chemical (Basic)
SIGITriple top      02/07/202302/28/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SHOPPipe bottom      02/21/202302/27/2023E-Commerce
SCCOBroadening top      02/09/202303/03/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
VDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/24/202303/01/2023Financial Services
WERNBroadening bottom      02/14/202303/06/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing

 

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Thursday 3/9/23. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.4% or 45.67 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 627 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 230 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 252/446 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency bitcoin, BTC-USD.

At A, the currency formed what's called an ascending scallop. A smaller and more narrow scallop happens at B.

Often when you see several scallops in a row, they will get narrower as they ascend the price chart. That signals the end of the uptrend is near. In a few cases, I've seen the reverse, with scallops getting wider and taller as they ascend, also signaling a trend end nearing.

However, it does look like the currency is getting tired, that it's taking a break before setting off in a new direction.

In this case, there's only two scallops (I like to see three in a row, each consecutively narrower or wider than the previous one), so the jury is out as to what it might portend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, APD, ATSG, AME, AON, AAPL, ADSK, AXS, BBBY, BA, BOOT, BAH, BFH, CHKP, GLW, CSGS, EOG, RE, EVRG, EXPD, FARO, FIVN, GD, GL, GOOGL, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HL, HNI, HOLX, DHI, JBHT, HURC, IPG, INTU, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBAL, LZB, RAMP, L, MTSI, M, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDC, NBR, NCR, NEE, NTNX, OMCL, PKE, PXD, PINC, PGR, DGX, RTX, REGN, RGS, RGA, RCKY, ROL, ROST, NOW, SHOP, STR, SNPS, TECH, TDY, TKR, RIG, TRV, TWLO, VMI, V, ITB, FDN, FXI, IAT, SOXX, SLV, IYF, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWS, EZA, QLD, PBE, GLD, XRT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,710.45    
 Weekly S2  11,090.39  379.95   
 Monthly S1  11,143.22  52.83   
 Weekly S1  11,333.20  189.97   
 Daily S2  11,441.51  108.32   
 Low  11,487.75  46.24   
 Daily S1  11,508.76  21.01   
 Weekly Pivot  11,516.41  7.66   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,531.10  14.69   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,544.49  13.39   
 Open  11,553.09  8.60   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  11,554.99  1.90   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,557.88  2.89   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  11,576.00  18.12   
 High  11,601.23  25.23   
 Daily R1  11,622.24  21.01   
 Daily R2  11,668.47  46.24   
 Monthly Pivot  11,706.39  37.91   
 Weekly R1  11,759.22  52.83   
 Weekly R2  11,942.43  183.22   
 Monthly R1  12,139.16  196.73   
 Monthly R2  12,702.33  563.16   

Wednesday 3/8/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart is bearish, as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows.

We've had a cluster of red-neutral swing, something I can't recall seeing (that means I wasn't looking for it).

I noticed yesterday that the CPI turned bearish right at the peak. That surprised me because price had climbed to a relative high and yet the CPI had turned bearish. Today, the bearish signal remains.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 40% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 39%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Not much as changed over the prior week. The red line is a touch more bearish this week.

The chart shows the red line trending lower after peaking in late January.

Both charts are bearish. This chart isn't as bearish as the CPI chart. I say that because the drop this week compared to prior weeks is minor, just one percentage point (red line only). The CPI chart seems to indicate that the upward retrace has ended. We'll continue moving lower for a time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 205 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, APD, ATSG, ALB, ALKS, DOX, AEE, AEP, AIG, ABC, AME, AMGN, APH, ANIK, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ATO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BALL, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BMRN, BKH, BA, BOOT, BAH, BLDR, CACI, CPB, CRL, CTAS, ED, GLW, CCK, CSGS, DUK, ECL, ELV, EOG, EFX, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GD, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, IDXX, ITW, INCY, IBP, INTC, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBAL, KMB, LAMR, LLY, L, LOW, M, MRTN, MA, MTDR, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MCO, NBR, NCR, NTGR, NJR, NEWR, NEU, JWN, OLN, ASGN, OMI, PKE, PCTY, PEN, PKI, PXD, POR, PPL, PINC, PGR, QTWO, RTX, REGN, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROL, ROST, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SHOP, STR, SWX, SR, SPSC, TECH, TDY, TEVA, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, TWLO, SLCA, UIS, VFC, VMI, VECO, VRTX, V, WRB, WMT, WAT, WEX, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, ITB, IDU, DDM, FDN, FXI, IYH, SLV, ECH, EEM, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, XLP, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/7/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Tuesday Morning (TUES)

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 40.47 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1392 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 715 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 677 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/466 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tuesday Morning: TUES stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 197 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, ALGT, DOX, AMED, AXP, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, AIZ, AVY, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BALL, BSET, BECN, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CAL, CE, CRL, CIEN, CMTL, ED, CONN, GLW, CCK, CTS, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, DRQ, ECL, EMR, EZPW, FFIV, FARO, FLS, FORM, FRD, GE, GMS, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HOV, HURC, INCY, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, NVTA, JKHY, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KBAL, LRCX, LNC, RAMP, LMT, L, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDT, MSFT, MLKN, NCR, NTGR, NEWR, NOC, NWPX, NTNX, OLN, OMI, OXM, PKG, PATK, PYPL, PKI, PCG, PPG, PSTG, QTWO, RL, RGS, RLI, ROK, RCKY, SBH, SMG, SMTC, SHW, SKYW, SMAR, SR, SXI, SSYS, TFX, TER, TEVA, TTD, TKR, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, UIS, UPS, VECO, WRB, WERN, WEX, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, ITB, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IYZ, EWO, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, IXN, MXI, XLF, XLB, XRT, XLK, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,588.29    
 Weekly S2  32,207.55  619.25   
 Monthly S1  32,509.87  302.32   
 Weekly S1  32,819.49  309.63   
 Weekly Pivot  33,112.66  293.16   
 Daily S2  33,273.63  160.97   
 Daily S1  33,352.54  78.91   
 Low  33,383.47  30.93   
 Monthly Pivot  33,422.29  38.82   
 Open  33,425.32  3.04   Yes! The Open is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  33,431.44  6.12   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,455.57  24.13   
 Daily Pivot  33,462.38  6.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,477.84  15.47   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,500.12  22.27   
 Daily R1  33,541.29  41.17   
 High  33,572.22  30.93   
 Daily R2  33,651.13  78.91   
 Weekly R1  33,724.60  73.48   
 Weekly R2  34,017.77  293.16   
 Monthly R1  34,343.86  326.09   
 Monthly R2  35,256.27  912.42   

Monday 3/6/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Not much is happening on this chart. At AB, we see a pattern called an inverted and ascending scallop.

That chart pattern starts out from a valley (A), rounds over at C and drops to B. B remains above A, often by a large amount such as that shown here. In a bull market in stocks, 95% of them breakout upward.

What's a breakout? That happens when the stock (or index) closes above the top of the chart pattern after the B bottom. That hasn't happened yet. Indeed, the index could continue lower and not be a IA scallop at all.

The average retrace of the CB drop as a percentage of the AC rise is 54%, or about halfway down before the security turns up.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 72.17 points.
Tuesday: Down 232.39 points.
Wednesday: Up 5.14 points.
Thursday: Up 341.73 points.
Friday: Up 387.4 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 574.05 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 294.07 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 75.6 points or 1.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     2.7% up from the low of 32,500.71 on 03/01/2023.
Nasdaq
     4.7% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     13.9% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     3.6% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     6.6% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,871  33,131  33,268  33,528  33,666 
Weekly  32,194  32,793  33,099  33,698  34,004 
Monthly  31,575  32,483  33,409  34,317  35,243 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,977  4,011  4,030  4,064  4,083 
Weekly  3,887  3,966  4,007  4,087  4,127 
Monthly  3,789  3,917  4,056  4,185  4,324 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,450  11,569  11,634  11,754  11,819 
Weekly  11,128  11,409  11,554  11,835  11,980 
Monthly  10,748  11,219  11,744  12,215  12,740 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AFL, A, ALRM, AYX, AEP, AEL, AIG, ANET, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BZH, BIO, BKNG, BRC, BR, BRKR, CBT, CAL, CX, CENX, CDAY, CSCO, CMTL, CONN, CSGP, COTY, CCK, DHR, DFS, ^DJU, EL, EVRG, EXC, FFIV, FICO, FTNT, IT, GE, GGG, GFF, HL, HSIC, HOLX, HD, HOV, HWM, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, ISRG, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, LAMR, LDOS, MHO, MCHX, MKTX, MLM, META, MLKN, MOS, ^IXIC, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OGE, OTEX, PEN, PKI, PETS, PFE, PCG, PPG, PPL, PHM, QTWO, RMBS, RGS, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, NOW, SHOP, SCCO, SWN, SCS, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TRV, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WSO, WMB, WDAY, XEL, IYK, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, SOXX, IHI, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IXN, SSO, MXI, GLD, XHB, XRT, SPY, XLK, XLU, USO, SMH, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Homebuilding
2. Metals and Mining (Div.)2. Shoe
3. Homebuilding3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
4. Shoe4. Internet
5. Internet5. Securities Brokerage
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Metal Fabricating7. Metal Fabricating
8. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)8. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
9. Apparel9. Machinery
10. Securities Brokerage10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Telecom. Equipment51. Air Transport
52. Medical Services52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Natural Gas (Distributor)54. Computers and Peripherals
55. Healthcare Information55. Telecom. Equipment
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Short ETFs57. Petroleum (Producing)
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Electric Utility (East)
59. Electric Utility (Central)59. Healthcare Information
60. Electric Utility (East)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/3/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, AKAM, DOX, AMWD, AMN, APOG, AMAT, AWI, AIZ, BMI, BBBY, BBY, BIO, BAH, BRC, BR, BBW, CBT, CLS, CF, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CTSH, GLW, COTY, CRH, CCK, DECK, BOOM, EVRG, FFIV, FDS, FARO, FORM, FTV, GME, GD, GE, GIS, GMS, GGG, GFF, GES, HSC, HOLX, HON, HOV, IEX, IDXX, INFN, PODD, IBKR, IPG, IPI, KBAL, LHX, LZB, M, MKTX, MAS, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MU, NCR, NKE, NOC, NWPX, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PAYX, PKI, PLXS, PRU, RTX, ROK, RCKY, CRM, SEIC, STR, SPSC, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TDY, TDC, TXT, TRV, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, VFC, MDRX, WRB, WERN, WU, IAI, IYK, IYC, IDU, FTEC, FXI, IYH, IAT, IYF, EWK, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWS, EWT, EWU, PPA, PXJ, PJP, IXN, SSO, XLV, XLI, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ATSGDead-cat bounce      02/24/202302/24/2023Air Transport
AMWDThree Falling Peaks      02/02/202302/27/2023Building Materials
AAPLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/03/202302/16/2023Computers and Peripherals
AVNTPipe bottom      02/06/202302/13/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BMIBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/07/202302/28/2023Precision Instrument
BIGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/13/202302/02/2023Retail Store
BMYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/24/202302/06/2023Drug
BRKRPipe top      02/06/202302/13/2023Precision Instrument
CHSUgly double bottom      01/19/202302/24/2023Apparel
CMIBroadening top      01/31/202302/24/2023Machinery
ECLBroadening top      01/12/202302/16/2023Chemical (Specialty)
EXPDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/21/202303/01/2023Air Transport
FMCTriangle, symmetrical      02/06/202303/02/2023Chemical (Basic)
GPSPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Apparel
GILDThree Falling Peaks      12/13/202202/13/2023Biotechnology
GMSBroadening top      02/02/202303/02/2023Cement and Aggregates
GSDiamond top      02/02/202302/16/2023Securities Brokerage
HSICHorn top      01/30/202302/13/2023Medical Supplies
NVTADead-cat bounce      03/01/202303/01/2023Medical Services
KBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/20/202302/22/2023Food Processing
KSSHead-and-shoulders top      01/26/202302/15/2023Retail Store
LHTriple top      01/24/202302/17/2023Medical Services
MTSIUgly double bottom      01/20/202302/03/2023Semiconductor
NXGNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/15/2023Healthcare Information
NIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/202302/16/2023Electric Utility (Central)
ONPipe top      02/06/202302/13/2023Semiconductor
OMIDead-cat bounce      02/28/202302/28/2023Medical Supplies
PCTYPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023E-Commerce
PINCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/21/2023Healthcare Information
PEGHead-and-shoulders complex top      12/01/202202/27/2023Electric Utility (East)
RRCTriple bottom      01/04/202302/21/2023Petroleum (Producing)
RNGHorn top      01/30/202302/13/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ROPFalling wedge      12/20/202202/16/2023Industrial Services
ROSTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/06/202301/27/2023Retail (Special Lines)
SKXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/08/202302/24/2023Shoe
SMARTriangle, symmetrical      02/02/202303/02/2023E-Commerce
SRPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
SUMHorn top      01/30/202302/13/2023Cement and Aggregates
TDOCHead-and-shoulders top      01/24/202302/15/2023Healthcare Information
TDCPennant      02/16/202302/28/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TREXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/09/2023Building Materials
SLCAPipe bottom      02/13/202302/21/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
WWWPipe bottom      02/06/202302/13/2023Shoe

 

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Thursday 3/2/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.7% or -76.06 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 282 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 136 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 146 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 252/446 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/145 or 49.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This chart looks complicated, but it's really not.

At AB, we see a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. I show that level with red line C. It confirms when the market gaps up higher at D.

EF is the reverse pattern, a double top. It confirms at G, the blue line.

At H, we see two bottoms that are a potential double bottom. It is unconfirmed as yet (price has to close above the peak at H). It looks promising that the index will confirm it tomorrow or the next day.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, A, AA, ALKS, AEE, AEP, AIG, ADM, AIZ, ATO, BCPC, BSET, BKH, BRC, BBW, CENX, CLNE, CTSH, CL, ED, COST, XRAY, ^DJU, DOV, DTE, DUK, EVRG, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FCX, GME, GPS, GNW, GL, GES, HBI, THG, HAYN, HOLX, HD, HOV, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, NVTA, JKHY, K, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LANC, LNC, MGY, MKTX, MAS, MTDR, MDT, MU, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, NOV, NCR, NJR, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, PTEN, PPL, PINC, DGX, RGS, RCKY, SBH, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SR, SCS, SUM, TPR, TKR, TJX, TDG, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UGI, MDRX, VC, WU, WLK, WSM, WOLF, WWW, IAI, IYK, IYC, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, ICF, IAT, EWO, EWQ, EWI, EZA, EWL, THD, TUR, PJP, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLP, GLD, XLK, XLU, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,127.66    
 Monthly S1  10,753.57  625.91   
 Weekly S2  11,116.36  362.79   
 Weekly S1  11,247.92  131.56   
 Daily S2  11,273.65  25.73   
 Daily S1  11,326.57  52.91   
 Low  11,349.87  23.30   
 Close  11,379.48  29.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,399.20  19.72   
 Daily Pivot  11,402.78  3.59   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,414.43  11.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,429.67  15.24   
 Open  11,447.58  17.91   
 Daily R1  11,455.70  8.12   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  11,466.03  10.33   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  11,479.00  12.97   
 Monthly Pivot  11,511.56  32.56   
 Daily R2  11,531.91  20.35   
 Weekly R1  11,597.59  65.68   
 Weekly R2  11,815.70  218.11   
 Monthly R1  12,137.47  321.77   
 Monthly R2  12,895.46  757.99   

Wednesday 3/1/23. March Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 2/28/2023 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

10. Consumer discretionary (12%)
9. Information technology (10%)
11. Communication services (9%)
5. Materials (5%)
7. Financials (4%)
8. Real estate (3%)
4. Industrials (3%)
6. Consumer staples (-3%)
1. Energy (-4%)
3. Health care (-6%)
2. Utilities (-7%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 2/24/23.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Financials
4. Consumer discretionary
5. Industrials
6. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
11. Materials
10. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 2/27/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Construction and engineering (+51%)
9. Trading companies and distributors (+26%)
2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+24%)
3. Energy equipment and services (+23%)
4. Independent power and renewable electric producers (+18%)
New. Distributors (+14%)
New. Machinery (+13%)
6. Biotechnology (+11%)
New. Commercial services and supplies (+9%)
7. Insurance (+6%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALGT, AEP, APH, ANIK, AMAT, ADM, ATO, AVNT, BBBY, BERY, BKH, BBW, BG, CAL, CLS, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CTSH, ED, COP, COTY, XRAY, FANG, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EOG, EFX, FIS, FDP, FRD, GE, HSII, HOLX, HOV, HUN, HURC, NSP, ITGR, IPG, INTU, K, KMB, LZB, LDOS, LLY, LOW, MRO, MTDR, MRCY, META, MUR, MYGN, NI, NWPX, NUS, ORI, OLN, OMI, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PLXS, PPL, PINC, DGX, RL, RMBS, RES, R, SLB, SAIC, SRE, NOW, SWX, SR, SUM, TPR, TRGP, TXN, TDG, TG, TWLO, SLCA, VLO, VECO, WWD, IAI, IYK, IYE, IDU, IYH, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EWI, EWP, THD, PJP, IXC, ILF, XLP, XLE, XLB, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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