Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/21/2024
  Indus: 38,612 +48.44 +0.1%  
  Trans: 15,582 +118.68 +0.8%  
  Utils: 854 +11.76 +1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,581 -49.91 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,982 +6.29 +0.1%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-2.0%  
-3.1%  
 +3.8%  
 +4.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/21/2024
  Indus: 38,612 +48.44 +0.1%  
  Trans: 15,582 +118.68 +0.8%  
  Utils: 854 +11.76 +1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,581 -49.91 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,982 +6.29 +0.1%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-2.0%  
-3.1%  
 +3.8%  
 +4.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

April 2023 Headlines

Archives


Friday 4/28/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADBE, AFL, APD, AKAM, AMZN, AMED, AEL, ABC, ANIK, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, AVNT, AVA, BAX, BERY, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BCO, BMY, BBW, CBT, CLS, CNP, CF, CRL, CHD, CNX, CGNX, CAG, GLW, CSGP, COST, CROX, CTS, DSGR, D, DRQ, ELV, EME, EXPI, FARO, FLS, FTNT, FCX, FRD, GILD, GFS, GL, GMS, GGG, HLIT, HE, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HON, IEX, ITW, ILMN, TILE, IPG, KFRC, LDOS, LLY, LOW, MANH, MCHX, MRK, META, MLKN, MYGN, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NI, NWPX, OGE, ASGN, ON, PKE, PDCO, PXD, PLXS, PPL, PG, PEG, QTWO, DGX, RMBS, RNG, RHI, RCKY, ROP, ^GSPC, SAIC, SHOP, SLGN, LUV, SSYS, TECH, TDOC, TER, TJX, TSCO, TDG, RIG, UHAL, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VRSN, VC, WMT, WOLF, WWW, WWD, XEL, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IDU, BOTZ, ICF, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWT, PXJ, PJP, IEV, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLF, XHB, SPY, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DOXTriple top      02/01/202304/12/2023IT Services
ADPTriangle, symmetrical      03/06/202304/21/2023IT Services
AVNTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/03/202304/12/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BERYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/03/202304/18/2023Packaging and Container
BBWPipe top      04/10/202304/17/2023Retail (Special Lines)
CALMPipe top      03/27/202304/03/2023Food Processing
CEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/03/202304/14/2023Chemical (Basic)
CVXHead-and-shoulders top      04/03/202304/24/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
CINFDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/21/202304/03/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CTASDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/202304/18/2023Industrial Services
CLFScallop, ascending and inverted      11/03/202212/19/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CROXDead-cat bounce      04/27/202304/27/2023Shoe
CTSPipe top      03/27/202304/03/2023Electronics
CWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/03/202304/18/2023Machinery
DTEUgly double bottom      03/23/202304/13/2023Electric Utility (Central)
EPAMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/03/202304/13/2023IT Services
EXCUgly double bottom      03/23/202304/14/2023Electric Utility (East)
FDSUgly double bottom      03/23/202304/10/2023Information Services
FICOPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023IT Services
FLEXPipe top      03/27/202304/03/2023Electronics
FTVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/03/202304/14/2023Industrial Services
GILDUgly double bottom      03/17/202304/12/2023Biotechnology
GFSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/14/202303/31/2023Semiconductor
HLITPipe top      04/10/202304/17/2023Telecom. Equipment
HQYThree Falling Peaks      03/22/202304/17/2023Healthcare Information
HSICDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/11/202304/25/2023Medical Supplies
KFRCPipe top      04/10/202304/17/2023Human Resources
LANCThree Rising Valleys      02/02/202304/17/2023Food Processing
MGYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/04/202304/17/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MGEEHead-and-shoulders top      03/20/202304/21/2023Electric Utility (Central)
^IXICDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/31/202304/18/2023None
NTGRDead-cat bounce      04/27/202304/27/2023Telecom. Equipment
NTAPPipe top      04/10/202304/17/2023Computers and Peripherals
NOVTHead-and-shoulders top      03/31/202304/24/2023Precision Instrument
PANWBroadening top      03/21/202304/18/2023Computer Software and Svcs
PDCORectangle bottom      03/22/202304/27/2023Medical Supplies
PENBroadening top      04/03/202304/18/2023Medical Supplies
KWRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/03/202304/12/2023Chemical (Specialty)
DGXUgly double bottom      03/17/202304/19/2023Medical Services
REGNTriple top      03/29/202304/13/2023Biotechnology
SAIAPipe bottom      04/03/202304/10/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SEEScallop, ascending and inverted      03/24/202304/26/2023Packaging and Container
LUVHead-and-shoulders top      03/31/202304/20/2023Air Transport
SPLKHead-and-shoulders top      03/21/202304/18/2023E-Commerce
SPSCTriple top      04/04/202304/24/2023E-Commerce
TDCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/04/202304/18/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TXNHead-and-shoulders top      03/23/202304/18/2023Semiconductor
RIGHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202304/13/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/17/202304/05/2023Building Materials
UGIHead-and-shoulders top      04/03/202304/21/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
VFCUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/10/2023Apparel
WMTUgly double bottom      03/10/202304/14/2023Retail Store
WLKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/03/202304/14/2023Chemical (Basic)
WMBHead-and-shoulders top      04/03/202304/24/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
WOLFDead-cat bounce      04/27/202304/27/2023Semiconductor
IGVDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/04/202304/18/2023Computer Software and Svcs
SOXXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/23/202303/31/2023Semiconductor
XLKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/04/202304/18/2023IT Services

 

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Thursday 4/27/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.5% or 55.19 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 581 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 392 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 189 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 67.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 256/452 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/147 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much has happened on the chart. I show a line of support or resistance, in red, depending on which side of the line price is on. If price is above the line, the line acts as support. If it's below the line, it acts as overhead resistance.

Notice that at A the index bottomed but at B, it closed higher. The Dow industrials were down 228 points but the Nasdaq was up 55. At one time, the two indices would move together but we see this kind of counter-trend action in the last few years.

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Here's a symbol list of 229 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, AMD, AES, A, ATSG, ALRM, AA, AYX, AXP, APH, ANIK, APOG, ANET, AWI, ADP, AVY, AVNT, BALL, BAX, BERY, BAH, BSX, BCO, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CAL, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CF, CHKP, CTAS, CLNE, CGNX, CXW, GLW, CSGP, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DFS, ^DJT, D, DOV, DRQ, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, FARO, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GD, GE, GILD, GFS, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, HUN, ILMN, INCY, IBKR, TILE, IPI, INTU, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LZB, LDOS, RAMP, LMT, L, LOW, MHO, MGY, MANH, MRTN, MTRX, MRCY, META, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MYGN, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NOC, NWPX, NOVT, NVDA, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PRFT, PKI, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PG, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RJF, REGN, RNG, RHI, ROK, R, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SHOP, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SUM, TPR, TDY, TXT, TMO, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TWLO, UGI, UPS, VMI, VC, VMC, WMT, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWW, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IAI, ITB, IEZ, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IGV, SLV, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXN, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLI, XLB, XLK, SMH, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,188.75    
 Monthly S1  11,521.55  332.80   
 Daily S2  11,750.22  228.67   
 Weekly S2  11,770.26  20.04   
 Daily S1  11,802.28  32.03   
 Weekly S1  11,812.30  10.02   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  11,833.07  20.77   
 Close  11,854.35  21.28   
 Monthly Pivot  11,883.49  29.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,884.61  1.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  11,885.14  0.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,900.53  15.39   
 Open  11,913.23  12.70   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,916.45  3.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  11,937.20  20.75   
 High  11,967.99  30.79   
 Daily R2  12,020.06  52.07   
 Weekly Pivot  12,028.87  8.81   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  12,070.91  42.05   
 Monthly R1  12,216.29  145.38   
 Weekly R2  12,287.48  71.19   
 Monthly R2  12,578.23  290.75   

Wednesday 4/26/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Back on April 12 and April 19, I warned of a bearish turn the market would likely take. We've seen the downturn now. How far the market will drop will depend on earnings reports. We could see the markets rise instead of fall.

Clearly the CPI is saying the market is bearish. That's what the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart signals. Look at the thin blue line (the CPI line) near the bottom of the chart. It's at or close to 0, so it's bearish. Of course, one could argue that things couldn't get much worse for the CPI line (meaning it could bounce up). I think that's premature. I think the market will continue to drop.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 44% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 39%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 519 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 16% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines are more bearish this week than they were a week ago. Indeed, the more sensitive of the two lines, the red one, made a steep plunge today.

The two charts are bearish. Although the CPI could bounce upward here, I think we're only getting started. After earnings season ends, then it might be time to nibble on your favorite stocks or ETFs.

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I released a research article on meme stocks.

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Here's a symbol list of 201 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, ACIW, ALRM, ALK, AA, AYX, AEE, AEP, ANIK, AON, ADM, ANET, AWI, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BALL, BSET, BAX, BERY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BSX, BFH, BCO, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CF, CHKP, CINF, CTAS, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CAG, GLW, CROX, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, DDS, DFS, EBAY, EZPW, FARO, FLEX, FLS, FCX, FDP, GME, IT, GE, GILD, GFS, HLIT, HQY, HWM, HUN, HURC, INCY, NSP, PODD, ITGR, INTC, IPI, JNJ, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LZB, LNC, L, M, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MU, MLKN, MS, MYGN, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NXGN, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, PKI, PNW, PLXS, PFG, PG, PRU, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RJF, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, RES, R, SCHW, SEE, SKX, SKYW, SMAR, SO, SCCO, SNPS, TGT, TDC, TXT, RIG, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UGI, VRSN, VC, WMT, WAT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, ITB, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IHF, IAT, IGV, IHI, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, PXJ, MXI, XLB, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/25/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Werner Enterprises: WERN

The Dow climbed by 0.2% or 66.44 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1361 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 741 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 620 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 262/472 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Werner Enterprises: WERN stock.

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Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACIW, ADTN, ALK, AMED, AEP, AXP, ANIK, AR, AON, ACGL, ARW, BAX, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BRKR, CAL, CPB, CLS, CNP, CDAY, CHS, CTAS, CL, CMTL, ED, COST, COTY, CROX, CCRN, XRAY, DFS, D, EBAY, EXPD, FIVN, FORM, GME, GILD, GFS, GMS, HD, DHI, IDA, IBP, ITGR, TILE, KALU, KMB, KLIC, LH, LEN, LLY, LPLA, LXU, M, MGY, MCHX, MA, MTDR, MTRX, MU, MS, NXGN, NKE, OTEX, PKG, PTEN, PRFT, PCG, PNW, PG, PHM, PSTG, RLI, SAIA, SBH, SKYW, SMAR, SO, SWN, SPSC, SXI, TGT, TDC, TKR, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, VRSN, WMT, WSC, XEL, ITB, IEZ, IDU, FXI, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, PXJ, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLU, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,874.77    
 Monthly S1  32,375.09  1,500.31   
 Monthly Pivot  33,229.01  853.93   
 Weekly S2  33,516.38  287.36   
 Daily S2  33,665.82  149.45   
 Weekly S1  33,695.89  30.07   
 Low  33,726.09  30.20   
 Daily S1  33,770.61  44.52   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,789.14  18.54   
 Open  33,805.04  15.89   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,808.62  3.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,828.10  19.48   
 Daily Pivot  33,830.88  2.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  33,857.25  26.38   
 Close  33,875.40  18.14   
 High  33,891.15  15.75   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,935.67  44.52   
 Daily R2  33,995.94  60.27   
 Weekly R1  34,036.77  40.82   
 Weekly R2  34,198.13  161.37   
 Monthly R1  34,729.33  531.20   
 Monthly R2  35,583.25  853.93   

Monday 4/24/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. There's a bit to talk about.

At AB is a double top that confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the low between the two peaks. That happens at C.

D is another chart pattern called a broadening top.

The pattern at E is a pennant. The idea about flags and pennants is that they appear midway in the price run. The pole begins at F, rises to E, and it's expected that the FE distance will rise to the same distance above E. However, that rarely works, but it does suggest that there's more of a rise to come.

Of course, a part of that rise has already happened. What you see here could be a throwback and the rise could resume upward soon. That happens 65% of the time.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 100.71 points.
Tuesday: Down 10.55 points.
Wednesday: Down 79.62 points.
Thursday: Down 110.39 points.
Friday: Up 22.34 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 77.51 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 51.01 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 4.12 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.6% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     7.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     1.6% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     17.6% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     1.5% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     8.9% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,615  33,712  33,785  33,882  33,956 
Weekly  33,494  33,652  33,835  33,992  34,176 
Monthly  30,853  32,331  33,207  34,685  35,561 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,104  4,119  4,128  4,143  4,153 
Weekly  4,083  4,108  4,139  4,164  4,195 
Monthly  3,800  3,967  4,068  4,235  4,336 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,942  12,007  12,052  12,117  12,162 
Weekly  11,843  11,958  12,102  12,216  12,360 
Monthly  11,261  11,667  11,956  12,362  12,651 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, A, ALB, AMED, APH, ANIK, ADP, AVNT, BSET, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BR, BRKR, BG, CBT, CPB, CNP, CDAY, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CTSH, CL, ED, COP, GLW, COST, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DVN, DRQ, EOG, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, FICO, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GFS, GMS, HOLX, DHI, HWM, JBHT, TILE, KALU, KFRC, KMB, LDOS, LLY, LPLA, MHO, M, MRO, MA, MTDR, MRK, MRCY, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NXGN, NTNX, ASGN, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PCG, PG, PSTG, KWR, DGX, RTX, RHI, ROG, ROP, RES, SAIA, SMG, SMTC, SKYW, SMAR, SO, TFX, TPX, TXT, TKR, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, UIS, UNH, VLO, VMI, VC, WWW, WWD, IYE, ITB, FXI, IGE, IEO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PPA, PJP, MXI, XLP, XLE, XAR, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Internet
2. Shoe2. Homebuilding
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Internet4. Shoe
5. Toiletries/Cosmetics5. Semiconductor
6. Semiconductor6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Retail Building Supply7. Toiletries/Cosmetics
8. Air Transport8. Air Transport
9. Medical Supplies9. Advertising
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. E-Commerce
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Telecom. Equipment50. Building Materials
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Healthcare Information
52. Natural Gas (Distributor)52. Petroleum (Integrated)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Furn/Home Furnishings
54. Petroleum (Integrated)54. Medical Services
55. Medical Services55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Human Resources56. Petroleum (Producing)
57. Insurance (Life)57. Human Resources
58. Natural Gas (Diversified)58. Insurance (Life)
59. Petroleum (Producing)59. Natural Gas (Diversified)
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/21/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AEIS, AJRD, ALB, ALL, AYX, APH, ACGL, ADM, ARW, BECN, BBBY, BIO, CACI, CLS, CNP, CTAS, CSCO, CLX, GLW, COTY, CROX, CCRN, DHR, DDS, DSGR, D, ELV, EME, EPAM, EL, RE, FFIV, FICO, FE, FIVN, FLS, FDP, GME, IT, GD, GFS, GMS, GPRO, HOLX, DHI, HOV, HUM, HURC, IDXX, ITW, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, JKHY, KBH, KBAL, KMB, KSS, LEN, LMT, LPLA, MHO, MRTN, MA, MDC, MRCY, MLKN, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NEWR, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PFE, PLXS, PHM, PSTG, RMBS, ROP, R, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SPSC, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDY, TPX, TMO, TKR, TOL, TDG, TRV, TZOO, TWLO, UGI, UPS, VLO, VEEV, V, VC, WSO, WMB, ITB, FXI, IHF, IYZ, EIS, EWM, EWY, EWL, THD, XLP, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
APDUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/10/2023Chemical (Diversified)
ALKUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/13/2023Air Transport
AARectangle bottom      03/15/202304/20/2023Aerospace/Defense
AELUgly double bottom      03/16/202304/05/2023Insurance (Life)
AFGPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ARWPipe top      03/27/202304/03/2023Electronics
AXSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BECNPipe bottom      04/03/202304/10/2023Retail Building Supply
BRCRoof      03/15/202304/20/2023Chemical (Diversified)
CLSTriangle, symmetrical      03/03/202304/19/2023Electronics
CNAPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CTSHDiamond top      04/03/202304/19/2023IT Services
CSGPRising wedge      03/16/202304/19/2023Information Services
REPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FISDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Computer Software and Svcs
GESPipe bottom      03/20/202303/27/2023Apparel
HOVPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Homebuilding
INFNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/14/202303/31/2023Telecom. Equipment
IBPTriple bottom      03/16/202304/06/2023Retail Building Supply
PODDTriangle, symmetrical      03/21/202304/14/2023Medical Supplies
IBKRPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Securities Brokerage
RAMPUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/12/2023Computer Software and Svcs
LPLAPipe bottom      04/03/202304/10/2023Securities Brokerage
MANHead-and-shoulders top      03/21/202304/18/2023Human Resources
MSHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/16/202304/06/2023Securities Brokerage
MOSUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/06/2023Chemical (Diversified)
NTNXRectangle bottom      03/10/202304/20/2023E-Commerce
ORIRising wedge      03/14/202304/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
OMCLPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Healthcare Information
OMCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/04/202304/18/2023Advertising
OUTUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/10/2023Advertising
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/10/202304/13/2023Apparel
PGPennant      04/06/202304/20/2023Household Products
QCOMHead-and-shoulders top      03/23/202304/11/2023Telecom. Equipment
RJFPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Securities Brokerage
RTXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/13/202303/24/2023Aerospace/Defense
RGADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Insurance (Life)
SCHWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/05/202304/17/2023Securities Brokerage
SREUgly double bottom      03/23/202304/13/2023Electric Utility (West)
TRGPPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
UISUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/10/2023Computers and Peripherals
UNMPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Diversified)
VECOTriangle, symmetrical      02/16/202304/03/2023Precision Instrument
WEXUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/06/2023Information Services

 

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Thursday 4/20/23. Ethereum cryptocurrency

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.0% or 3.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 703 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 401 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 302 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 256/451 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/147 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

The partial decline highlighted in my March 23 post was correct in predicting an upward breakout. I show the broadening top chart pattern in red.

Today, (Wednesday) the cryptocurrency dropped almost 6%, which I consider a large drop. There have been other large drops as you can see in the chart. Such a large drop suggests the currency will continue moving lower, at least for a few more days.

Other than that, there's not much happening on the chart.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 175 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, ALK, ALB, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AXP, APH, AON, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ANET, ARW, AVY, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BSX, BBW, CACI, CAL, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CI, CTAS, CSCO, CLF, CMCO, GLW, COST, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CW, ^DJT, ELV, EXPI, FIS, FLEX, FLS, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GFS, GMS, GES, HTLD, HSY, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, HUM, JBHT, HUN, HURC, INFN, IIIN, PODD, INTC, TILE, INTU, ISRG, IRM, K, KEYS, KBAL, KMB, KLAC, KLIC, LAMR, LANC, LEN, LMT, LPLA, MHO, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTRX, MRCY, MU, MLKN, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NXGN, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PLXS, PEG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RJF, RGS, ROK, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SHW, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SWN, SXI, TDY, TFX, TPX, TKR, RIG, TZOO, TREX, UGI, UIS, UPS, VLO, VMI, VC, WSC, ZBRA, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IYZ, SOXX, IEO, EEM, EWM, EWW, EWP, EWT, THD, PEJ, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,544.19    
 Monthly S1  11,350.71  806.52   
 Monthly Pivot  11,789.32  438.61   
 Weekly S2  11,803.98  14.66   
 Weekly S1  11,980.61  176.62   
 Daily S2  12,005.24  24.63   
 Low  12,060.17  54.93   
 Open  12,063.68  3.51   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  12,081.23  17.55   
 Weekly Pivot  12,093.16  11.93   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,110.19  17.02   
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,125.63  15.45   
 Daily Pivot  12,136.17  10.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,141.08  4.92   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  12,157.23  16.15   
 High  12,191.10  33.87   
 Daily R1  12,212.16  21.06   
 Daily R2  12,267.10  54.93   
 Weekly R1  12,269.79  2.69   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  12,382.34  112.56   
 Monthly R1  12,595.84  213.50   
 Monthly R2  13,034.45  438.61   

Wednesday 4/19/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI remains bullish and it's a strong signal, too, at 91.3, where 100 is the max. Like I mentioned a week ago, I still believe the uptrend is near an end. We have overhead resistance setup by the prior peak (Feb). I believe we continue to rise only because we're coasting. I expect a downturn before next Wednesday, but that's a huge guess.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 38%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The lines this week show improvement (blue) and worsening (red). Which line should we believe? I like the red one because it's more sensitive. And I'm a sensitive guy. Smiley

If you look at the chart, they both look flat, and like the prior chart, it suggests a retrace of the uptrend or even a reversal is coming. This might be a buying opportunity and it should last a few weeks to a month or two, I think.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 194 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, ACIW, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, A, ALB, AA, AYX, AEO, AEP, AEL, AME, ANIK, APA, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, BECN, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BBW, CE, CX, CNP, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CTAS, CLF, CLX, CMCO, CONN, COP, GLW, CSGP, CR, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, D, BOOM, EMN, EFX, RE, EXPI, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FDP, FRD, GE, GNW, GL, GMS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HOLX, HD, HON, HOV, HUBG, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IPG, IPI, IRM, KELYA, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LEG, LEN, LLY, LNC, LMT, L, LOW, LPLA, M, MGY, MAN, MRTN, MRCY, MU, MLKN, MLI, MYGN, NTGR, NJR, NXGN, NOVT, OGE, OLN, OUT, OMI, PCTY, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PG, PHM, QCOM, DGX, RRC, REGN, ROK, ROP, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SMTC, SWN, SXI, TFX, TPX, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, UIS, VLO, VRTX, VC, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, ITB, IHE, IDU, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IYH, IYZ, IHI, EWO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLU, UNG, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/18/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 100.71 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1141 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 628 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 513 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 262/471 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Williams-Sonoma: WSM stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AJRD, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ABC, AR, APA, APOG, ACGL, ARW, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, CALM, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CF, CHD, CSCO, CLX, CNA, CNX, CXW, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, FANG, DFS, BOOM, EQT, FICO, FISV, FLEX, FORM, GME, GE, GNW, HBI, HLIT, HSY, HOLX, HURC, INFN, IIIN, KMB, KLIC, LANC, LEG, LLY, MGY, MANH, MRTN, MYGN, NFG, NCR, NFLX, NXGN, NI, OGE, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, PEN, PXD, PGR, PRU, PHM, QCOM, RRC, RJF, RTX, REGN, RGS, RGA, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIC, SMG, STR, SCS, SUM, TPR, TRGP, TFX, TER, SLCA, UNM, VLO, VECO, VRTX, VC, WWD, WDAY, SLV, IYF, EWM, THD, DBA, PBE, ILF, SSO, XLF, GLD, SPY, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,513.53    
 Monthly S1  32,250.35  1,736.83   
 Weekly S2  33,065.01  814.65   
 Monthly Pivot  33,166.65  101.64   
 Weekly S1  33,526.09  359.45   
 Daily S2  33,730.79  204.69   
 Low  33,796.91  66.13   
 Weekly Pivot  33,804.52  7.61   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  33,858.98  54.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,871.14  12.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,894.07  22.93   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,917.00  22.93   
 Daily Pivot  33,925.11  8.11   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  33,930.46  5.36   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,987.18  56.72   
 High  33,991.23  4.05   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  34,053.30  62.07   
 Daily R2  34,119.43  66.12   
 Weekly R1  34,265.60  146.18   
 Weekly R2  34,544.03  278.43   
 Monthly R1  34,903.47  359.45   
 Monthly R2  35,819.77  916.29   

Monday 4/17/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

There's not a lot happening in the Dow transports, which I show on the daily scale.

I highlight a chart pattern that isn't fully developed. It's a potential head-and-shoulders top or perhaps a complex head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

Those have one or more left shoulders, a head centrally located, and one or more right shoulders.

With complex head-and-shoulders chart patterns, the neckline is typically almost flat. We see that kind of slope on this neckline, so it might be a complex head-and-shoulders top forming.

The right shoulder could use more development (rising higher) and it has to close below the neckline before it becomes a valid head-and-shoulders.

The chart pattern, if verified, is bearish.

$ $ $

I released version 8 of Patternz, my free pattern recognition software. It has about a half dozen more chart patterns implemented and should work better than prior versions. I still have a bug when listing and drawing a chart of the result. The program knows the pattern is there but it can't display it. That's a function of zooming in from the List form. I'd have to redesign the List and List Chart forms to fix it. Other than that, let me know if you find any problems. If you do, please include the data file (quote file) you were using and a screen shot of the setup so I can duplicate it on my computer. Then tell me what's broken. -- Thanks. Tom

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 101.23 points.
Tuesday: Up 98.27 points.
Wednesday: Down 38.29 points.
Thursday: Up 383.19 points.
Friday: Down 143.22 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 401.18 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 35.51 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 32.62 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     7.8% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     1.2% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     18.1% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     9.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,548  33,717  33,900  34,069  34,252 
Weekly  33,031  33,459  33,771  34,198  34,510 
Monthly  30,480  32,183  33,133  34,836  35,786 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,088  4,113  4,138  4,163  4,188 
Weekly  4,034  4,086  4,124  4,176  4,215 
Monthly  3,682  3,910  4,037  4,264  4,391 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,939  12,031  12,119  12,211  12,298 
Weekly  11,793  11,958  12,082  12,247  12,371 
Monthly  10,533  11,328  11,778  12,573  13,023 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, AFL, AFG, AMWD, APH, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AGO, BECN, BZH, BCO, BLDR, CALM, CAL, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CI, CINF, CNO, CNX, CXW, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DFS, BOOM, EBAY, EFX, EZPW, FLEX, FCX, FDP, GME, GIS, GNW, GS, GFF, HBI, THG, HOLX, IIIN, PODD, KBAL, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LANC, MKTX, MLKN, MS, MYGN, NTAP, ASGN, OMI, PATK, PTEN, PGR, QCOM, RLI, R, SIGI, SMTC, SHOP, STR, SMAR, SCS, SSYS, TFX, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VECO, WRB, WERN, WU, WWD, WDAY, BOTZ, IAT, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWC, EWD, MXI, XLF, XHB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Internet1. Homebuilding
2. Homebuilding2. Internet
3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.3. Shoe
4. Shoe4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Toiletries/Cosmetics7. Diversified Co.
8. Air Transport8. Metal Fabricating
9. Advertising9. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
10. E-Commerce10. Air Transport
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Building Materials50. Insurance (Diversified)
51. Healthcare Information51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Petroleum (Integrated)52. Human Resources
53. Furn/Home Furnishings53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Medical Services54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Petroleum (Producing)56. Insurance (Life)
57. Human Resources57. Healthcare Information
58. Insurance (Life)58. Medical Services
59. Natural Gas (Diversified)59. Natural Gas (Diversified)
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/14/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 93 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AEIS, AJRD, AES, ATSG, AEO, AIG, AR, ATR, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ATO, BECN, BIO, BKNG, CALM, CAL, CX, CNP, CNO, CNX, CONN, CROX, CCK, CTS, ^DJU, D, EXP, EFX, EL, FE, FLEX, FTV, GPS, GILD, GS, GES, HBI, HE, HQY, HL, HOLX, IPAR, KALU, KBAL, KLIC, LZB, MCHX, MS, MYGN, NFG, NEE, POR, PHM, SAIA, SMG, SIGI, SCCO, SNPS, TDY, TFX, UIS, VMC, WERN, WMB, WWD, WDAY, IYE, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, SLV, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, DBA, PBE, IEV, XLE, GLD. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriple bottom      03/15/202304/10/2023Diversified Co.
ADTNDead-cat bounce      04/11/202304/11/2023Telecom. Equipment
AHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/02/202304/10/2023Precision Instrument
AMZNUgly double bottom      03/13/202303/28/2023Internet
AMEDHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/17/202303/30/2023Medical Services
AEPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/01/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (Central)
AFGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
APOGPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Building Materials
ARCBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/20/202304/05/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AIZPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Insurance (Diversified)
AVYHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/13/202303/24/2023Packaging and Container
AVNTPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Chemical (Specialty)
AVATriple bottom      03/01/202303/24/2023Electric Utility (West)
BCPCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/24/202303/31/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BECNBroadening bottom      03/15/202304/12/2023Retail Building Supply
BKHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/10/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (West)
CNPTriple bottom      03/01/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (Central)
CFPipe bottom      03/20/202303/27/2023Chemical (Basic)
CRLTriple bottom      03/17/202304/06/2023Biotechnology
CLNEHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/13/202304/04/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
CLFBroadening bottom      03/21/202304/12/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CNXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/22/202303/15/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
CGNXRectangle bottom      02/21/202304/13/2023Precision Instrument
CMTLTriangle, symmetrical      03/13/202304/04/2023Telecom. Equipment
CROXUgly double bottom      03/13/202303/27/2023Shoe
CMIBroadening bottom      03/15/202304/05/2023Machinery
DHRHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/02/202303/24/2023Medical Services
DFSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Financial Services
DBroadening bottom      03/02/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
DOVPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Machinery
DRQDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DTEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/10/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (Central)
DUKTriple bottom      03/02/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
ELVHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/15/202303/30/2023Medical Services
REDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EVHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Healthcare Information
XOMPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
FFIVHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202303/28/2023Internet
FICORectangle top      02/02/202304/13/2023IT Services
FEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
FLSPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Machinery
FMCThree Rising Valleys      03/16/202304/06/2023Chemical (Basic)
FCXHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202304/05/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
ITPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023IT Services
GMSPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Cement and Aggregates
GSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Securities Brokerage
THGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/24/2023Electric Utility (West)
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/02/202303/13/2023Medical Supplies
HOLXHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      03/02/202303/24/2023Medical Supplies
HOVTriangle, descending      02/07/202304/13/2023Homebuilding
HUMTriple bottom      02/07/202303/29/2023Medical Services
HUNFalling wedge      03/13/202304/06/2023Chemical (Specialty)
NSPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Human Resources
IBPPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Retail Building Supply
IIINRectangle bottom      03/13/202304/13/2023Building Materials
IBKRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Securities Brokerage
KALUPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
LAMRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Advertising
RAMPDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Computer Software and Svcs
MGYPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MROPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
MCHXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/10/202303/27/2023Advertising
MTDRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MDTTriangle, symmetrical      03/06/202304/10/2023Medical Supplies
MRCYUgly double bottom      03/17/202304/05/2023Computers and Peripherals
MURPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
NBRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202303/24/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NTAPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/15/202303/24/2023Computers and Peripherals
NEEHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/09/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
NKEThree Rising Valleys      03/13/202304/06/2023Shoe
NOCPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Aerospace/Defense
OXYHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/22/202303/24/2023Petroleum (Producing)
OLNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Chemical (Basic)
OMCLUgly double bottom      03/13/202303/28/2023Healthcare Information
ONTriangle, symmetrical      03/02/202304/13/2023Semiconductor
PYPLTriangle, symmetrical      03/09/202304/10/2023Financial Services
PKIHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/28/202303/24/2023Precision Instrument
PCGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/23/202303/24/2023Electric Utility (West)
PNWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (West)
PPLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
PSTGHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/02/202303/24/2023Computers and Peripherals
QCOMPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023Telecom. Equipment
RRCPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Petroleum (Producing)
SBHPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
SLBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SEICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/20/202303/24/2023IT Services
NOWPipe bottom      03/06/202303/13/2023IT Services
SLGNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Packaging and Container
STRPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
LUVUgly double bottom      03/24/202304/05/2023Air Transport
SWNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
SRTriangle, symmetrical      02/23/202303/31/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
TECHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/13/202303/24/2023Biotechnology
TEVADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/20/202303/24/2023Drug
TSCOTriple bottom      03/02/202303/24/2023Retail Building Supply
UHALPipe bottom      03/20/202303/27/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SLCAPipe bottom      03/13/202303/20/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
UNHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/10/202303/30/2023Medical Services
VEEVBroadening top, right-angled and descending      02/02/202303/31/2023Healthcare Information
WUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/24/202304/05/2023Financial Services
WMBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/16/202303/24/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
WSMTriangle, symmetrical      03/09/202304/13/2023Retail (Special Lines)
WSCPennant      04/05/202304/12/2023Industrial Services
XELTriple bottom      03/01/202303/23/2023Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 4/13/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.9% or -102.54 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 220 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 104 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 116 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 256/451 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB, the index forms a double top. It confirms at D when the index closes below blue line C. Notice that the drop after D is extensive, exceeding the measure rule target. That target, generally, is the height of the pattern subtracted from the the low price at C.

After that, we see pattern E, which is a symmetrical triangle. I ignored spike F when drawing the top trendline. Even so, the downward sloping trendline is clear and it's in keeping with the spirit of the pattern. The index has closed below the bottom trendline, suggesting the downward move will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 204 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AEIS, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, AA, DOX, AEO, AXP, AME, AMGN, ANIK, AR, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BALL, BBBY, BBY, BIG, BSX, BFH, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CHKP, CTAS, CLF, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CONN, COP, COST, CR, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, D, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, ECL, EOG, EPAM, EFX, FE, FLEX, FTV, GME, GPS, GPN, GGG, HBI, THG, HE, HAYN, HQY, HELE, HSIC, HD, HOV, HUBG, HUN, PODD, TILE, IPI, NVTA, JAZZ, LZB, LAMR, LLY, LOW, MGY, MAN, MRO, MA, MDC, MRK, MRCY, MU, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NI, JWN, NUS, NTNX, OMI, OXM, PTEN, PAYX, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PCG, POR, PPG, PPL, PSTG, QTWO, DGX, RTX, RHI, ROP, ROST, RES, SAIC, SMG, SWN, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TTD, TSCO, TZOO, TG, TWLO, UIS, UPS, VFC, VRTX, WMT, WU, WLK, WSM, WOLF, WWD, WDAY, IYM, IYK, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWD, EWL, EWU, PBE, PEJ, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLY, XRT, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,468.23    
 Monthly S1  11,198.78  730.56   
 Weekly S2  11,691.14  492.36   
 Monthly Pivot  11,713.36  22.22   
 Daily S2  11,775.50  62.14   
 Weekly S1  11,810.24  34.74   
 Daily S1  11,852.42  42.18   
 Low  11,916.54  64.12   
 Close  11,929.34  12.80   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,993.46  64.12   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,999.80  6.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  12,017.46  17.66   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,025.52  8.06   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,051.24  25.72   
 Daily R1  12,070.38  19.14   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  12,110.87  40.49   
 High  12,134.50  23.63   
 Weekly R1  12,136.56  2.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  12,211.42  74.86   
 Weekly R2  12,343.78  132.36   
 Monthly R1  12,443.91  100.13   
 Monthly R2  12,958.49  514.57   

Wednesday 4/12/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal is bullish, shown on the chart with the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. It's been there for four days, so it's probably solid (meaning it won't disappear) unless we get a huge market move (large rise or drop). Signals can change for up to a week but are usually solid after three days.

The thin blue CPI line (near chart bottom) shows it dipping lower today (Tuesday, after the close) and that's a sign of weakness. I don't know how strong that signal is.

Based on what we see on the chart, the next signal will be bearish (two green bars precede a bearish signal. You can see that in July to August 2022, Jan to Feb 2023, but three green bars in Oct to Nov 2022. However the Oct-Nov period is where price is at the bottom of the chart, rising. The other two areas are approaching a top).

So this chart is bullish but hints of a coming reversal.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 38% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 40%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line is marginally better than it was a week ago, but the blue line is flat. The red line continues to recover from the February to March dip. However, the price chart doesn't show such a robust recovery.

If you're an Elliott waver, you can count from the October low, five waves (up, retrace, rinse, repeat). It also suggests weakness. After wave 5, we can see an extension or a correction, so who knows?

Taken together, the warnings are subtle but present, I think. In the next two to four weeks, we might see a significant reversal begin. That's a guess, of course.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALB, AMED, AXP, AFG, AMWD, AMN, AAPL, AWI, ARW, AGO, AZTA, BAX, BECN, BIG, BRC, BRKR, CALM, CAL, CPB, CE, CNA, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CONN, CXW, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CW, DHR, XRAY, DFS, DSGR, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, ECL, ELV, RE, EXPI, FARO, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FTV, FCX, FDP, GNW, GL, GMS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HSC, HL, DHI, HOV, HWM, HUM, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, ISRG, IRM, KMT, LEG, LNC, MHO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MDT, META, MLI, NCR, NWL, NEU, JWN, NOC, OMCL, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PCG, PLXS, PHM, KWR, RL, RMBS, RJF, RTX, RHI, ROK, ROL, ROST, RES, R, SAIA, SMG, SHW, SCCO, LUV, SUM, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, SLCA, VFC, VRTX, V, VC, WMT, WSO, WERN, WU, WSM, WWD, WDAY, XEL, ITA, DDM, IYH, IHF, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EPP, EWY, EWD, EWU, IBB, DBA, PEJ, PHO, IEV, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/11/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 101.23 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1139 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 627 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 512 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 261/470 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Wolverine World Wide: WWW stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AFL, ALK, AMED, AFG, AMGN, AMN, ADM, AIZ, ATO, AXS, BMI, BECN, BZH, BKH, BCO, CX, CNC, CENX, CF, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, GLW, CRH, CCRN, CW, XRAY, EXP, EME, EQT, EL, EVH, EXC, FARO, FLS, GPS, GES, HTLD, HL, HWM, IIIN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LXU, MAN, MCHX, MTRX, NCR, NJR, JWN, ASGN, PTEN, PCG, PSTG, DGX, RNG, RLI, ROG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SLGN, STR, SCCO, LUV, TTD, TMO, TSCO, UHAL, UGI, IYM, IHF, EWG, EWI, EWJ, TUR, PPA, PEJ, PHO, XLI, XRT, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,678.79    
 Monthly S1  32,132.65  1,453.87   
 Monthly Pivot  32,883.69  751.03   
 Weekly S2  33,100.07  216.38   
 Daily S2  33,259.92  159.86   
 Weekly S1  33,343.29  83.37   
 Low  33,343.43  0.14   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  33,423.22  79.79   
 Open  33,425.25  2.03   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,437.71  12.46   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,466.84  29.13   
 Weekly Pivot  33,489.01  22.17   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,495.96  6.95   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  33,506.73  10.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,586.52  79.79   
 High  33,590.24  3.72   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,670.03  79.79   
 Weekly R1  33,732.23  62.20   
 Daily R2  33,753.54  21.30   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  33,877.95  124.41   
 Monthly R1  34,337.55  459.61   
 Monthly R2  35,088.59  751.03   

Monday 4/10/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead. Utilities: Down

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

One pattern jumps out and that's the triple bottom, which I highlight on the chart as 1, 2, and 3. The pattern confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest peak between the three bottoms. That's the horizontal red line.

I also drew a blue trendline connecting the recent chart peaks and today's price, at A.

If I were wanting to buy the index (an ETF based on it, really), I'd wait. I've seen these trendlines put up overhead resistance that a stock struggles to break though. I don't know if that's the case with an index, but I wouldn't take the chance.

So I'm looking for the utility index to drop this week.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 194.55 points.
Tuesday: Down 37.83 points.
Wednesday: Up 323.35 points.
Thursday: Up 141.43 points.
Friday: Up 415.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1247.76 points or 3.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 264 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 134.03 points or 3.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     6.5% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     1.5% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     17.8% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     8.2% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,245  33,365  33,446  33,566  33,646 
Weekly  32,003  32,744  33,018  33,759  34,032 
Monthly  30,687  32,086  32,829  34,228  34,972 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,057  4,081  4,094  4,118  4,132 
Weekly  3,897  4,001  4,056  4,160  4,215 
Monthly  3,706  3,906  4,008  4,208  4,310 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,828  11,958  12,028  12,158  12,228 
Weekly  11,391  11,739  11,984  12,332  12,577 
Monthly  10,521  11,305  11,766  12,550  13,011 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 7 days.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ALB, AIG, ACGL, ADM, ARW, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BSX, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CPB, CF, ED, CRH, CCRN, DHR, XRAY, DFS, BOOM, EXP, EL, EZPW, FDX, GPS, GMS, GES, HAYN, HL, HP, HURC, IDXX, INFN, TILE, IPI, INTU, NVTA, LNC, MHO, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, META, MSFT, MLKN, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NJR, NI, JWN, ORI, OMC, PATK, PTEN, PCG, POR, PG, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SHW, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, UHAL, VRTX, WAT, WEX, WMB, WSC, WWD, IHE, IDU, ICF, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWP, EWL, EWU, QLD, PXJ, IXC, SSO, SPY, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Diversified Co.7. Diversified Co.
8. Metal Fabricating8. Metal Fabricating
9. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment9. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
10. Air Transport10. Air Transport
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Diversified)50. Insurance (Diversified)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Human Resources52. Human Resources
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Insurance (Life)56. Insurance (Life)
57. Healthcare Information57. Healthcare Information
58. Medical Services58. Medical Services
59. Natural Gas (Diversified)59. Natural Gas (Diversified)
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 4/6/23. Bitcoin Review

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.1% or -129.47 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 175 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 89 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 86 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 255/450 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/146 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

On the chart two patterns and one anomaly appear. The first, A, caught my attention because I'm struggling with Patternz to teach it how to find flags. This isn't a flag but a cousin: pennant. A flag has a retrace that looks like two parallel lines. Pennants are everything else, really, except that both need to be at the end of a flagpole. The flagpole to his one began min mid January. That's when price went vertical.

At B, we see a nicely formed broadening top. Those patterns have peaks which follow an upward trend and valleys which follow a downward trend, so that the two trendlines highlighting those trends diverge.

I once read somewhere that a congestion region that appears near the breakout suggests a strong move. I was not able to prove that theory worked. I think C is an example of the type of congestion region they were talking about although this one is long.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, AMD, AJRD, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEP, ABC, AME, AMGN, APH, APA, AMAT, AWI, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BECN, BBY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, CPB, CNP, CF, CHKP, CHS, CLF, CTSH, ED, CXW, COTY, CRH, DHR, DDS, ^DJU, D, DUK, EXP, EME, EPAM, EL, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FDX, FIS, FE, FORM, GPS, GE, GNW, GS, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HELE, HSY, HNI, HOV, HUBG, IDA, ITW, IBP, IIIN, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KMT, KEYS, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LLY, RAMP, MHO, MRO, MTRX, MRK, MCO, MS, NBR, ^IXIC, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NOVT, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PATK, PKI, PFE, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPL, PG, PGR, RL, RGA, RNG, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SCHW, SEE, SRE, SO, SR, SNPS, TRGP, TECH, TER, TXN, TXT, RIG, UHAL, UGI, UPS, UNH, VRSN, VRTX, WMT, WSO, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, EWH, EWS, EWL, PBE, ROBO, ILF, SSO, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,490.73    
 Monthly S1  11,243.80  753.06   
 Weekly S2  11,360.37  116.58   
 Weekly S1  11,678.62  318.24   
 Monthly Pivot  11,735.86  57.25   
 Daily S2  11,850.25  114.39   
 Daily S1  11,923.56  73.30   
 Low  11,931.85  8.29   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  11,953.27  21.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,991.02  37.75   
 Close  11,996.86  5.84   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  12,005.15  8.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,009.30  4.15   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,027.58  18.28   
 Daily R1  12,078.46  50.88   
 Open  12,081.76  3.30   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  12,086.75  4.99   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  12,160.05  73.30   
 Weekly R1  12,271.52  111.46   
 Monthly R1  12,488.93  217.41   
 Weekly R2  12,546.17  57.25   
 Monthly R2  12,980.99  434.82   

Wednesday 4/5/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 4/3/2023 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

2. Information technology (21%)
3. Communication services (21%)
1. Consumer discretionary (15%)
4. Materials (4%)
7. Industrials (3%)
8. Consumer staples (1%)
6. Real estate (0%)
9. Energy (-1%)
10. Health care (-4%)
11. Utilities (-5%)
5. Financials (-6%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 3/31/23.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Financials
4. Consumer discretionary
5. Industrials
6. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
10. Materials
11. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 4/3/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Construction and engineering (+26%)
3. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+14%)
6. Distributors (+12%)
New. Household durables (+10%)
2. Trading companies and distributors (+8%)
8. Biotechnology (+8%)
7. Machinery (+7%)
9. Commercial services and supplies (+7%)
New. Specialty retail (+6%)
4. Energy equipment and services (+4%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 265 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ABM, AYI, AFL, ALB, AA, AFG, AMWD, AMN, APA, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BBY, BKNG, BRC, BCO, BMY, BG, CALM, CPB, CE, CX, CF, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CXW, COTY, CR, CCRN, CCK, CW, DHR, FANG, DDS, DOV, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EME, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, FDS, FAST, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FDP, FRD, GPS, GE, GPN, GMS, GS, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HL, HELE, HP, HNI, HOLX, HOV, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, INTC, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LAMR, LEN, L, LPLA, MHO, MTSI, MGY, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTDR, MTRX, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MUR, NBR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NKE, JWN, NVDA, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PAYX, PETS, PFG, PG, DGX, RL, RJF, RTX, RGS, RGA, RNG, ROK, ROP, RES, SAIA, SLB, NOW, SLGN, SKYW, SCCO, SXI, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDY, TPX, TER, TXT, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, UHAL, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VRSN, VRTX, WRB, WSO, WEX, WSM, WSC, WWW, WDAY, IYM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWG, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, PPA, PBE, ROBO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 4/4/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.0% or 327 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 442 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 232 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 210 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 261/469 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring WM Wrigley: WWY stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AJRD, ALB, AA, ALL, AFG, APA, APOG, ACGL, ADM, AIZ, AVNT, BAX, BBBY, BA, BCO, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CPB, CX, CNC, CVX, CHS, CINF, CNA, CNO, CAG, COP, CCRN, XRAY, DVN, FANG, D, DOV, DRQ, ELV, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FICO, FDX, FLS, GPS, IT, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, HIG, HQY, HL, HP, DHI, HOV, HWM, HUM, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, KALU, LAMR, LEG, LEN, L, LOW, LPLA, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTDR, MRCY, MGEE, MU, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OXY, OLN, PTEN, PXD, PPG, PFG, PGR, PHM, RRC, RJF, RTX, RGS, RGA, ROK, SAIA, SBH, SLB, STR, SKYW, SCCO, SR, SUM, SRDX, TRGP, TPX, TEVA, TXT, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VECO, WLK, WSC, WWW, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, IHF, IAT, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, TUR, EWU, PXJ, IEV, IXC, XLE, GLD, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,725.33    
 Weekly S2  32,042.01  1,316.68   
 Monthly S1  32,163.24  121.23   
 Weekly S1  32,821.58  658.34   
 Monthly Pivot  32,867.73  46.15   
 Weekly Pivot  33,056.29  188.56   
 Daily S2  33,106.16  49.87   
 Low  33,245.78  139.63   
 Open  33,245.78  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  33,353.65  107.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,393.66  40.01   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,439.34  45.68   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,485.02  45.68   
 Daily Pivot  33,493.28  8.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,601.15  107.87   
 High  33,632.90  31.75   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,740.77  107.88   
 Weekly R1  33,835.86  95.09   
 Daily R2  33,880.40  44.54   
 Weekly R2  34,070.57  190.17   
 Monthly R1  34,305.64  235.07   
 Monthly R2  35,010.13  704.49   

Monday 4/3/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead (Down)

My Prediction

Picture of the s and p 500 on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Not much is happening except for the potential drop. That's highlighted by a chart pattern called a head-and-shoulders top. I highlight the left shoulder (LS), a potential right shoulder (RS?) and a head straddling the two shoulders.

Before the squiggles can become a valid head-and-shoulders top, the index has to close below the red neckline. If that were to happen, it would represent a significant drop and that's just a start.

Worst case, the index could drop below the red line by the height of the pattern, and perhaps more.

Of course, none of this might happen. The index could continue rising but it would have to push through overhead resistance and it has already made a good move upward. That sets the stage for a downward retrace in my opinion.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 194.55 points.
Tuesday: Down 37.83 points.
Wednesday: Up 323.35 points.
Thursday: Up 141.43 points.
Friday: Up 415.12 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1036.62 points or 3.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 397.95 points or 3.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 138.32 points or 3.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     5.9% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     19.1% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     2.1% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     8.3% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,767  33,020  33,156  33,409  33,545 
Weekly  31,933  32,604  32,947  33,618  33,962 
Monthly  30,616  31,945  32,759  34,088  34,901 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,038  4,073  4,092  4,128  4,147 
Weekly  3,898  4,004  4,057  4,163  4,216 
Monthly  3,708  3,909  4,010  4,210  4,312 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,963  12,092  12,160  12,290  12,358 
Weekly  11,435  11,829  12,028  12,422  12,621 
Monthly  10,566  11,394  11,811  12,639  13,056 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 182 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, ALB, ALKS, AFG, AIG, APH, APA, APOG, ACGL, AIZ, AVNT, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BSX, BCO, BR, CBT, CX, CNC, CHS, CHD, CINF, CNA, CNO, ED, COP, CRH, CROX, XRAY, DSGR, DOV, EOG, EPAM, RE, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FTV, GME, IT, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, THG, HIG, HQY, HL, HSII, HD, HOV, HUM, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IPG, KALU, KMB, KLIC, LH, LAMR, LEG, L, LPLA, LXU, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MRCY, MSFT, MUR, NEU, NOC, NUS, OLN, OMC, OUT, OMI, PKG, PKE, PEN, PXD, PFG, PG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RRC, RJF, RGS, RGA, ROK, SBH, SCI, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SR, SRDX, TRGP, TDY, TPX, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VLO, VRSN, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWD, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHE, DDM, ICF, IAT, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, PPA, PEJ, PJP, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLV, SPY, USO, VHT, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Internet
3. Shoe3. Shoe
4. Semiconductor4. Metals and Mining (Div.)
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Diversified Co.7. Metal Fabricating
8. Metal Fabricating8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment9. Diversified Co.
10. Air Transport10. Advertising
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Diversified)50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Medical Services
52. Human Resources52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Healthcare Information
54. Petroleum (Producing)54. Natural Gas (Distributor)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Insurance (Life)
56. Insurance (Life)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Healthcare Information57. Electric Utility (East)
58. Medical Services58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. Natural Gas (Diversified)59. Short ETFs
60. Short ETFs60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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