Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023
As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023

December 2022 Headlines

Archives


Friday 12/30/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ALRM, DOX, AFG, APH, AON, AAPL, AIZ, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BBW, CAL, CPB, CNP, CENX, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, GLW, COST, CRH, CCRN, XRAY, DRQ, EMN, EIX, EQT, EVH, FFIV, FICO, FISV, FTV, IT, GE, GIS, GGG, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, HD, HUBG, IEX, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, K, KELYA, LOW, MHO, MA, MSFT, MCO, NCR, NJR, NEE, NXGN, OMC, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PRU, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, RLI, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SEIC, SRE, SWN, SXI, SCS, TECH, TEVA, TXN, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, VC, VMC, WLK, IYC, IHE, FTEC, FXL, IYH, IHF, IGV, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLF, GLD, XLV, SPY, XLK, VHT, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACNHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022IT Services
AEISDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor
AMWDBig M      11/22/202212/13/2022Building Materials
AMEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202212/13/2022Industrial Services
AAPLPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022Computers and Peripherals
AWIThree Falling Peaks      08/16/202210/06/2022Building Materials
ARWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Electronics
AZTAHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BECNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/10/202212/02/2022Retail Building Supply
CDNSHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Computer Software and Svcs
CVXTriple bottom      12/09/202212/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
CMTLPipe top      12/05/202212/12/2022Telecom. Equipment
COPTriple bottom      12/09/202212/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
EMNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/11/202212/13/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EPAMTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022IT Services
EXPDTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022Air Transport
XOMThree Rising Valleys      12/07/202212/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
HBIPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Apparel
HQYTriangle, symmetrical      12/13/202212/29/2022Healthcare Information
HELEPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
NSPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/01/202212/14/2022Human Resources
KMBDiamond top      12/01/202212/29/2022Household Products
LRCXPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LOWBroadening top      11/18/202212/22/2022Retail Building Supply
MDiamond bottom      12/19/202212/29/2022Retail Store
MCOHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Information Services
NFGRoof      11/07/202212/29/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
ONThree Falling Peaks      11/14/202212/01/2022Semiconductor
PPLRectangle top      11/23/202212/29/2022Electric Utility (East)
KWRPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Chemical (Specialty)
QCOMTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022Telecom. Equipment
RMBSHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RNGTriple top      11/15/202212/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
^GSPCDiamond bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022None
SAIAPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
NOWHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022IT Services
FDNTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022Internet

 

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Thursday 12/29/22. Cryptocurrency Ethereum

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.4% or -139.94 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 47 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 69 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 59.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/440 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/142 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency called Ethereum on the daily scale.

This looks a lot like bitcoin which I reviewed in mid December. There's a double bottom at AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the currency closes above the peak between the two bottoms. That happens at C.

The rise to D sees the currency reversing there.

What do I see happening in the future? It's a guess but this looks to be the start of a measured move down. If that's true, then look for the currency to drop followed by a retrace. I show that with the bent red line.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 252 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, AYI, ADTN, AES, AFL, ALK, AA, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEP, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AME, AON, APOG, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AGO, AVY, BMI, BERY, BKNG, BAH, BSX, BFH, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CL, ED, CAG, CR, CRH, CCK, CMI, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, DTE, DUK, EXP, EMN, ECL, EIX, EMR, EQT, RE, EVRG, EZPW, FICO, FDX, FISV, FLS, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GE, GIS, GPN, GL, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HL, HELE, HD, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HUN, IDA, ITW, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, K, KMT, KMB, LH, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LMT, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, JWN, NOC, OXY, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMI, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PPL, PG, PGR, PHM, KWR, RTX, RGS, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROP, SMG, SRE, SLGN, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SR, SXI, SCS, TECH, TPX, TXT, TKR, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, V, VC, WRB, WSO, WLK, WSC, WWW, IYK, IYE, ITB, IDU, DDM, IAT, IGE, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWT, THD, PPA, DBA, PBE, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLI, XLU, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,441.10    
 Monthly S1  9,827.19  386.10   
 Weekly S2  9,986.48  159.28   
 Daily S2  10,071.18  84.70   
 Weekly S1  10,099.88  28.71   
 Daily S1  10,142.23  42.35   
 Low  10,207.47  65.24   
 Close  10,213.29  5.82   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  10,278.53  65.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,286.68  8.15   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,311.14  24.47   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,335.61  24.47   
 Open  10,339.20  3.59   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  10,349.58  10.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  10,414.82  65.24   
 Weekly Pivot  10,426.73  11.91   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  10,485.88  59.15   
 Weekly R1  10,540.13  54.26   
 Monthly Pivot  10,699.42  159.28   
 Weekly R2  10,866.98  167.56   
 Monthly R1  11,085.51  218.54   
 Monthly R2  11,957.74  872.22   

Wednesday 12/28/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal is neutral, as shown by the vertical off-white bar on the far right of the chart. This could mean the transition from bearish to bullish is underway. You often need that kind of transition. By that, I mean it's rare for a red bar to precede a green bar without any white bars in between (there are none showing on this chart).

So we're left with a neutral chart that's hinting of an upturn. Let's call it a Santa Rally or maybe the January effect.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 54% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 56%.
The fewest was 23% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 26%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

This week, both lines show improvement but it's not a substantial change. As the chart shows the red and blue lines have a rounded-looking top and are heading lower now. It looks like an inverted and ascending scallop. If that's the case, then look for the downtrend to end and the two lines to shoot higher.

I don't see any evidence of that happening on the chart.

The prior chart is neutral but tending toward being bullish. This one is bearish but could flip to bullish. Maybe we should just consider them bearish until after the New Year's holiday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AKAM, ALK, AEP, AME, APA, ARCB, ADM, ASH, ATO, AVY, BALL, BECN, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BMY, BG, CE, CNP, CF, CHS, ED, GLW, CR, CCRN, CTS, XRAY, DFS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EIX, WIRE, EVRG, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FAST, FE, FMC, FDP, GPS, GIS, GPN, GFS, GS, GFF, HLIT, HTLD, HD, HUBG, HUN, ITW, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, IPI, JKHY, JBLU, KMT, KSS, M, MGEE, MOS, NJR, NI, NOC, OGE, ORI, OMC, OMI, PFE, PGR, RHI, ROG, SEE, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, SR, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TXT, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, VEEV, V, VMC, XEL, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, BOTZ, IHF, IGE, EWC, EWH, EWM, EZA, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLU, VHT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/27/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.5% or 176.44 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 952 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 512 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 440 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 53.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 256/458 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/105 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tommy Hilfiger: TOM stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACN, AES, AFL, DOX, AEE, AIG, ABC, ASH, AZTA, BIIB, BKH, BRC, CDNS, CX, CIEN, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, ED, DECK, DVN, DSGR, DRQ, DTE, ELV, EPAM, RE, EVRG, EXC, FICO, FDX, FISV, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GES, HLIT, HE, HWM, HUBG, IDXX, INFN, PODD, JAZZ, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, LLY, L, MCHX, META, MLKN, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NJR, NEE, NI, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, POR, PPL, PEG, RMBS, RLI, RES, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, TPR, TEVA, TKR, RIG, WSC, IEZ, FDN, QTEC, EWA, EWH, EWM, EZA, THD, TUR, QLD, DBA, PBE, SSO, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,357.70    
 Weekly S2  32,207.32  849.63   
 Monthly S1  32,280.81  73.49   
 Daily S2  32,669.24  388.43   
 Weekly S1  32,705.63  36.38   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  32,814.02  108.39   
 Daily S1  32,936.59  122.57   
 Open  32,961.06  24.47   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,971.45  10.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,020.08  48.63   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,068.71  48.63   
 Weekly Pivot  33,071.73  3.02   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  33,081.36  9.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  33,203.93  122.57   
 High  33,226.14  22.21   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,348.71  122.57   
 Daily R2  33,493.48  144.78   
 Monthly Pivot  33,496.55  3.06   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  33,570.04  73.49   
 Weekly R2  33,936.14  366.11   
 Monthly R1  34,419.66  483.52   
 Monthly R2  35,635.40  1,215.73   

Friday 12/23/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AEIS, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALL, AEO, AEL, APA, APOG, AMAT, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BALL, BECN, BIIB, BFH, BBW, CDNS, CLS, CHS, CIEN, CLF, CGNX, CMTL, CTS, DRQ, BOOM, EOG, EPAM, EQT, FFIV, FAST, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FRD, GPS, HLIT, HQY, HUBG, HUN, IDXX, INFN, IBP, PODD, INTC, TILE, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KMT, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, LOW, M, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MU, MLKN, MCO, NBR, NTGR, NWPX, OXY, ON, PKG, PTEN, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, QCOM, RMBS, ROST, RES, SLB, SMG, SEE, SMTC, NOW, LUV, SWX, SCS, SUM, TGT, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMC, WSC, ZBRA, IYC, IEZ, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, SOXX, EWC, EIS, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWD, THD, TUR, QLD, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLY, XHB, XLB, XRT, XLU, SMH, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTBroadening wedge, ascending      11/14/202212/22/2022Medical Supplies
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022IT Services
AYIThree Falling Peaks      11/11/202212/13/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
ADBERectangle top      11/10/202212/22/2022Computer Software and Svcs
AFLBroadening top      12/07/202212/21/2022Insurance (Diversified)
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202212/14/2022IT Services
AXPTriple top      11/11/202212/13/2022Financial Services
AMEHead-and-shoulders complex top      11/24/202102/03/2022Industrial Services
ATODouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
ADSKPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
BSXUgly double bottom      06/16/202207/14/2022Medical Services
BFHThree Falling Peaks      11/11/202212/14/2022Information Services
BMYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/09/202212/01/2022Drug
CNPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Electric Utility (Central)
CHKPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022E-Commerce
CINFTriple top      11/14/202212/13/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/14/2022Electric Utility (East)
GLWTriple top      11/11/202212/13/2022Telecom. Equipment
CSGSPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022IT Services
DHRThree Rising Valleys      05/12/202207/14/2022Medical Services
^DJIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022None
DRQPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ECLBig M      11/11/202212/13/2022Chemical (Specialty)
FICODouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022IT Services
FDXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Air Transport
FISBig M      12/02/202212/15/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FISVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/02/202212/13/2022IT Services
FMCPipe top      11/28/202212/05/2022Chemical (Basic)
FTNTHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FTVPipe bottom      03/07/202203/14/2022Industrial Services
ITDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022IT Services
GFSPipe bottom      01/24/202201/31/2022Semiconductor
GGGBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/17/202212/16/2022Machinery
HTLDBroadening top      11/23/202212/14/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HOVTriangle, symmetrical      12/06/202212/22/2022Homebuilding
HWMTriple top      03/22/202206/07/2022Aerospace/Defense
HUMPipe bottom      09/27/202110/04/2021Medical Services
HUNHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/19/202112/13/2021Chemical (Specialty)
PODDPipe top      03/28/202204/04/2022Medical Supplies
ITGRHead-and-shoulders top      11/22/202212/09/2022Electronics
INTCThree Falling Peaks      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor
LAMRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/14/2022Advertising
MTSIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor
MANHead-and-shoulders top      11/22/202212/13/2022Human Resources
MCOTriple top      11/11/202212/13/2022Information Services
^IXICBroadening top      11/15/202212/13/2022None
NIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Electric Utility (Central)
OGEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Electric Utility (Central)
OMCLTriangle, descending      11/09/202212/22/2022Healthcare Information
OMCDiamond top      11/23/202212/22/2022Advertising
ONUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Semiconductor
OUTTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022Advertising
PENUgly double bottom      03/14/202203/25/2022Medical Supplies
PPGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/02/202212/13/2022Chemical (Diversified)
RMBSTriple top      11/14/202212/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RTXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/01/202112/20/2021Aerospace/Defense
REGNTriple bottom      01/07/202202/24/2022Biotechnology
ROKDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/14/202212/13/2022Diversified Co.
ROPThree Rising Valleys      01/28/202203/14/2022Industrial Services
^GSPCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022None
SMGPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Chemical (Basic)
SEICHead-and-shoulders top      11/25/202212/13/2022IT Services
SREDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Electric Utility (West)
SMTCHead-and-shoulders top      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LUVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/05/202212/13/2022Air Transport
TPRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202212/13/2022Apparel
TDYBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/10/202212/13/2022Aerospace/Defense
TERDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TDGTriangle, descending      11/10/202212/22/2022Aerospace/Defense
RIGPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
UNHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/03/202202/09/2022Medical Services
VRTXTriple top      11/23/202212/08/2022Biotechnology
VDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Financial Services
WUHead-and-shoulders top      11/15/202212/13/2022Financial Services
WSCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/10/202212/01/2022Industrial Services
FDNHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Internet
QTECHorn top      11/28/202212/12/2022Electronics
SOXXTriple top      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor
XLKBroadening top      11/15/202212/13/2022IT Services

 

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Thursday 12/22/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.5% or 162.26 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 120 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 72 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 48 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/439 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/142 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern indicator slipped into neutral from sell after today's close. That shift suggests the index could be turning higher (the CPI is not shown on the chart and signals can change for up to a week).

This chart shows a rounded bottom, which I highlight with a red arc. Usually the turn will continue upward, but it's early to say if that'll happen or not.

At inset A, I show today's movement. There are three peaks in the picture. I think it confirmed as a triple top when the index plunged just before the close and just before recovering. That recovery suggests upward momentum and it would make a nice holiday gift. However, it could just be a typical pullback where the index will resume the downtrend.

So we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 130 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, AYI, ADBE, ALKS, ALL, APA, AWI, ASH, AGO, AZTA, BMI, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BMY, CDNS, CVX, CIEN, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COTY, DRQ, EPAM, XOM, FICO, FIS, FISV, FTNT, FTV, FRD, GPS, GIS, GNW, GGG, HBI, HIG, HQY, HSII, HWM, HUBG, HUN, IEX, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, PODD, NVTA, JAZZ, KLAC, KLIC, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, META, MCO, NBR, NFG, NEU, NKE, NI, JWN, NWPX, OLN, OXM, PATK, PTEN, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RLI, ROK, ROP, RES, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SO, SXI, TDC, TEVA, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UPS, UNH, VLO, VRSN, WAT, IAI, IYE, IEZ, FDN, QTEC, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EIS, EWI, EZA, EWP, TUR, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, IXC, SSO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,044.83    
 Weekly S2  10,044.83  0.00   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Weekly S1  10,377.10  332.27   
 Monthly S1  10,377.10  0.00   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  10,493.01  115.91   
 Low  10,569.20  76.19   
 Open  10,592.00  22.80   
 Daily S1  10,601.19  9.19   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,639.63  38.44   
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,661.38  21.76   
 Daily Pivot  10,677.38  16.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,683.14  5.76   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  10,709.37  26.23   
 High  10,753.57  44.20   
 Daily R1  10,785.56  31.99   
 Daily R2  10,861.75  76.19   
 Monthly Pivot  10,974.37  112.62   
 Weekly Pivot  10,974.37  0.00   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  11,306.64  332.27   
 Monthly R1  11,306.64  0.00   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly R2  11,903.91  597.27   
 Weekly R2  11,903.91  0.00   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R2.

Monday 12/19/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

A double top confirms as a valid chart pattern at AB. Confirmation happens when the index closes below the horizontal red line. I drew the line connecting the valley between A and B.

What is going to happen next? For a clue, look at the rise from its compliment: C. C is a double bottom that resulted in a huge rise up to A.

Flip that around and it suggests a huge drop.

Will that happen? I have my doubts.

Circled in green is a knot that I believe will support the index. It matches with the horizontal green line that connects to a prior peak at D.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the index will drop to somewhere in the green circle and then rebound.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 528.58 points.
Tuesday: Up 103.6 points.
Wednesday: Down 142.29 points.
Thursday: Down 764.13 points.
Friday: Down 281.76 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 556 points or 1.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 299.21 points or 2.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 82.02 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     10.9% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     14.9% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     32.5% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     6.1% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     20.1% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     10.3% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,402  32,661  32,914  33,173  33,426 
Weekly  31,371  32,146  33,429  34,204  35,487 
Monthly  31,371  32,146  33,429  34,204  35,487 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,794  3,823  3,857  3,886  3,920 
Weekly  3,654  3,753  3,927  4,026  4,200 
Monthly  3,654  3,753  3,927  4,026  4,200 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,536  10,621  10,727  10,812  10,918 
Weekly  10,044  10,374  10,973  11,304  11,903 
Monthly  10,044  10,374  10,973  11,304  11,903 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 213 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, APOG, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ADSK, ADP, AXS, BAX, BECN, BKNG, BRC, BMY, CBT, CAL, CPB, CNP, CINF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, GLW, CR, CSGS, DHR, DFS, DTE, BOOM, EIX, EFX, FFIV, FAST, FLS, FMC, FDP, FRD, IT, GE, GNW, GS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HAYN, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, NSP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, TILE, IPI, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, KALU, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LNC, L, LOW, M, MAS, MTRN, META, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, JWN, NWPX, NVDA, OMC, OUT, PAYX, PPG, PFG, PRU, PEG, RGS, ROK, ROG, ^GSPC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SXI, SCS, SUM, TFX, TMO, TREX, UGI, UPS, VC, VMC, WRB, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, IYC, IYE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IHI, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLV, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Food Processing
2. Shoe2. Securities Brokerage
3. Metal Fabricating3. Biotechnology
4. Machinery4. Metal Fabricating
5. Food Processing5. Machinery
6. Securities Brokerage6. Drug
7. Biotechnology7. Shoe
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Drug10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Natural Gas (Diversified)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Natural Gas (Distributor)52. Healthcare Information
53. Toiletries/Cosmetics53. Chemical (Basic)
54. Computers and Peripherals54. Electronics
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Air Transport56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Electronics57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Healthcare Information58. Petroleum (Producing)
59. E-Commerce59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/16/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, ALK, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AFG, AMWD, ABC, AMN, ARCB, AWI, BZH, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CAL, CRL, CNA, CONN, GLW, COST, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, EMR, EOG, FAST, FLEX, FMC, GPS, GE, GGG, HBI, HSC, HAYN, HSII, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, IPI, NVTA, KBH, KMT, KSS, LHX, LH, LANC, LEG, LEN, LNC, L, M, MDC, MU, MLI, NWL, NOC, NWPX, OXY, PTEN, PETS, ROG, NOW, SCS, TOL, TZOO, UNM, WRB, WU, WMB, IYC, ITB, IHE, FXI, IAT, IGE, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, QLD, PEJ, IXC, IXN, ILF, XRT, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWRectangle bottom      11/04/202212/15/2022IT Services
ATSGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/31/202211/15/2022Air Transport
AKAMHead-and-shoulders top      11/11/202212/13/2022E-Commerce
ALBHead-and-shoulders top      11/01/202212/02/2022Chemical (Diversified)
AADouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/11/202212/05/2022Aerospace/Defense
AYXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/08/202212/07/2022Computer Software and Svcs
AMEDTriangle, symmetrical      11/07/202212/09/2022Medical Services
AMGNTriangle, descending      11/08/202212/08/2022Biotechnology
APHDiamond top      11/11/202212/09/2022Electronics
AONDiamond top      11/23/202212/09/2022Insurance (Diversified)
AMATTriangle, symmetrical      11/15/202212/09/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ARCBTriangle, symmetrical      02/01/202212/09/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ADPScallop, ascending      08/18/202212/02/2022IT Services
BCPCRoof, inverted      11/11/202211/25/2022Chemical (Specialty)
BALLThree Falling Peaks      11/15/202212/13/2022Packaging and Container
BKHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Electric Utility (West)
CLSBroadening bottom      11/22/202212/14/2022Electronics
CHSHead-and-shoulders top      10/27/202212/08/2022Apparel
CLXTriangle, symmetrical      11/17/202212/09/2022Household Products
CGNXTriangle, symmetrical      11/09/202212/09/2022Precision Instrument
CMITriple top      11/15/202211/30/2022Machinery
DOVRectangle top      11/11/202212/14/2022Machinery
DRQDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/27/202211/14/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EPAMRectangle top      11/11/202212/14/2022IT Services
FFIVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/23/202212/13/2022Internet
FASTBroadening top      11/10/202212/13/2022Retail Building Supply
FRDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/03/202212/09/2022Building Materials
GPSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/22/202212/06/2022Apparel
GEHead-and-shoulders top      11/15/202212/02/2022Diversified Co.
GOOGLHead-and-shoulders top      11/15/202212/13/2022Internet
THGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/01/202212/01/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HAYNPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Building Materials
HONDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/25/202212/13/2022Aerospace/Defense
IPARTriple bottom      09/29/202210/24/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
IBKRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/04/202211/30/2022Securities Brokerage
LZBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/15/202212/01/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LEGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/11/202212/01/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
MBroadening wedge, descending      11/28/202212/15/2022Retail Store
MASBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      11/11/202212/15/2022Building Materials
MSBroadening top      11/11/202212/13/2022Securities Brokerage
MLIHead-and-shoulders top      11/18/202212/02/2022Metal Fabricating
^IXICBroadening top      11/15/202212/13/2022None
NFLXRising wedge      10/26/202212/14/2022Internet
OTEXTriangle, ascending      10/13/202212/15/2022E-Commerce
OXMTriple top      11/23/202212/08/2022Apparel
QCOMBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/15/202212/15/2022Telecom. Equipment
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202212/13/2022Apparel
RNGPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Computer Software and Svcs
RLITriple top      11/01/202211/25/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SCHWTriple top      11/23/202212/13/2022Securities Brokerage
NOWTrend line down      03/29/202208/11/2022IT Services
SWXPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
SRPipe top      11/21/202211/28/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
TGTHead-and-shoulders top      10/26/202212/01/2022Retail Store
TXNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Semiconductor
TRVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/01/202212/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      11/16/202211/29/2022Chemical (Specialty)
VLODouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202211/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
VMIHead-and-shoulders top      11/25/202212/13/2022Metal Fabricating
VCTriple top      11/11/202212/02/2022Electronics
EZADiamond top      11/11/202212/08/2022Investment Co. (Foreign)
PJPHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/30/202210/13/2022Drug
ROBOHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202210/21/2022Electronics
IXCHead-and-shoulders top      11/07/202211/25/2022Investment Co. (Foreign)
GLDTriple bottom      09/26/202211/03/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
XLKHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/30/202211/04/2022IT Services
VISBroadening top      11/18/202212/06/2022Industrial Services
MGKBroadening top      11/15/202212/15/2022None

 

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Thursday 12/15/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.8% or -85.92 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 264 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 133 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 131 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/438 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/142 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin on the daily scale.

It's been a while since I blogged about the currency (the last post was during the drop to A).

Let's begin with the double bottom or even a triple bottom, shown here as AB. The third bottom is the spike between A and B.

The double bottom confirms as a valid chart pattern when the currency closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. I show that as line C but one could argue it's much lower because the left side isn't a minor high.

Right now, the currency is bumping up against overhead resistance setup by prior valleys. The thinking here is that once people get their money back, they'll sell the currency and it'll drop. That's what I expect to see.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 67 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, AYX, AMWD, ABC, AMN, APA, AIZ, BMI, BBBY, BMY, BBW, BG, CF, CHD, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, XRAY, DDS, DSGR, EMR, FAST, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, HLIT, HSY, HUBG, IPI, NVTA, KFRC, LH, LEG, RAMP, M, MTRX, MOS, MYGN, NWL, NWPX, PTEN, RGS, RNG, RES, NOW, SCS, RIG, TZOO, WMB, IYK, IYC, IHE, EWA, EWC, EWW, EWT, IXC, ILF, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,817.80    
 Monthly S1  10,494.34  676.55   
 Weekly S2  10,654.12  159.77   
 Daily S2  10,909.22  255.11   
 Weekly S1  10,912.50  3.28   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  11,020.56  108.05   
 Daily S1  11,040.06  19.50   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  11,065.24  25.18   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  11,169.01  103.77   
 Close  11,170.89  1.88   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,174.82  3.93   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  11,196.07  21.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,208.67  12.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,242.51  33.85   
 Open  11,248.09  5.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  11,326.91  78.82   
 High  11,352.09  25.18   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  11,427.39  75.30   
 Daily R2  11,482.92  55.53   
 Weekly R2  11,683.90  200.97   
 Monthly R1  11,697.10  13.21   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  12,223.32  526.21   

Wednesday 12/14/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

If the FED raises rates by 3/4 of a point, I think the market will drop big time. If it raises rates by 1/2 point, we'll see a flat to down market. I think such a rise has been factored in. If they hold steady or raise rates less than 1/2 point, then I think the market will soar on the news. This is just a guess, but that's my expectation. If the market drops, I'm going to be buying some new positions and adding to others.

$ $ $

Above is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator, at B, shows the CPI turning from bearish (the red vertical bar) to neutral.

Compare what happened at B to what A shows. At A, we see the same red to neutral bars followed by a green (bullish) bar. When A ended, the index soared in a nice straight-line run higher. Will the same dynamic happen following B?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 53%.
The fewest was 24% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 450 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement this week compared to the snapshot last week. The red and blue lines hit overhead resistance as I discussed in prior posts.

The prior chart is neutral. This chart is bullish (or more bullish than a week ago). I don't like the big reversal we suffered today (Tuesday) when stocks opened significantly higher only to backtrack a good portion of those gains.

I'm going to reserve judgment on the coming direction until after the FED announcement tomorrow, but I'll be voting with my money.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 237 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACN, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AMED, AEL, AMWD, ABC, AMGN, AMAT, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKNG, BAH, BRC, CE, CLS, CF, CRL, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CMTL, CONN, GLW, CRH, XRAY, DSGR, EXP, EMN, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EFX, EL, RE, EZPW, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FRD, GME, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HE, HELE, HSY, DHI, HOV, HUBG, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IBKR, IPI, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LEN, RAMP, LMT, M, MAN, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NWL, NOC, NWPX, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKE, PRFT, PFE, PGR, QCOM, RJF, RGS, RNG, ROK, RES, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TDC, TER, TEVA, TREX, UNM, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WAT, WU, WLK, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IAI, IYK, ITB, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, SOXX, SLV, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWU, PPA, DBA, PBE, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLF, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/13/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.6% or 528.58 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 164 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 83 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 81 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 254/456 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/105 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Timberland: TBL stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 116 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADBE, AJRD, AES, APD, ATSG, ALRM, AYX, AMED, AMN, AMAT, ARCB, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BERY, BMRN, BRC, BLDR, CNP, CF, CRL, CGNX, CMCO, ED, COST, CR, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, ^DJI, EPAM, EL, FLEX, FLS, GNW, HLIT, HSII, HD, HUBG, HURC, NSP, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPI, IVC, K, KMT, KBAL, KLIC, LZB, LH, RAMP, M, MANH, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NCR, NI, NWPX, ASGN, PKE, PTEN, PINC, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, SR, SCS, TGT, TER, TXN, TSCO, TZOO, TG, WU, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, DBA, PBE, PHO, ROBO, IEV, ILF, XRT, XAR, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,504.66    
 Monthly S1  32,754.85  1,250.19   
 Weekly S2  33,002.65  247.80   
 Daily S2  33,357.65  355.00   
 Weekly S1  33,503.84  146.19   
 Low  33,519.50  15.66   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  33,519.50  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  33,675.18  155.68   
 Daily S1  33,681.35  6.17   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,704.98  23.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,762.27  57.29   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,819.56  57.29   
 Daily Pivot  33,843.19  23.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  33,919.79  76.59   
 Close  34,005.04  85.25   
 High  34,005.04  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  34,166.89  161.85   
 Daily R2  34,328.73  161.85   
 Weekly R1  34,420.98  92.25   
 Weekly R2  34,836.93  415.94   
 Monthly R1  34,925.37  88.45   
 Monthly R2  35,845.70  920.33   

Monday 12/12/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

At AB is a chart pattern called a double top. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the valley between the two peaks, which happens at C. The index hasn't dropped far below C yet.

At D, circled in blue, is a loose-looking knot that may stop the decline in the transports. I think there's a good chance of that because the circled area is so tall.

For all I know, it might already have halted the decline.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 482.78 points.
Tuesday: Down 350.76 points.
Wednesday: Up 1.58 points.
Thursday: Up 183.56 points.
Friday: Down 305.02 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 953.42 points or 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 456.88 points or 4.0%.
The S&P 500 index was down 137.32 points or 3.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.4% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     16.8% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     30.6% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     9.1% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     18.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     12.7% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,213  33,345  33,595  33,727  33,977 
Weekly  32,826  33,151  33,744  34,069  34,661 
Monthly  31,328  32,402  33,499  34,573  35,670 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,904  3,919  3,948  3,963  3,992 
Weekly  3,834  3,884  3,968  4,018  4,102 
Monthly  3,570  3,752  3,926  4,109  4,283 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,908  10,956  11,048  11,096  11,187 
Weekly  10,599  10,802  11,114  11,317  11,628 
Monthly  9,762  10,383  10,965  11,586  12,168 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ATSG, AA, AEE, AXP, AIG, AMN, AMAT, ADP, AVY, AZTA, BERY, BRC, CAL, CX, CF, CSCO, CTSH, ED, CCRN, CSGS, DVN, DRQ, EPAM, EL, EVH, FFIV, FIS, FLEX, FLS, FCX, FDP, GILD, GL, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HD, HOV, HUBG, ITW, INFN, IBKR, IVC, KBAL, LZB, LH, RAMP, LMT, L, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MDT, MRK, MUR, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NEU, OXY, PKE, PTEN, PFE, RGS, RHI, SR, TJX, WMT, WWW, XEL, IYE, FXI, SLV, IGE, EWK, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWD, EWL, PBE, IEV, IXC, MXI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Food Processing1. Metal Fabricating
2. Securities Brokerage2. Food Processing
3. Biotechnology3. Securities Brokerage
4. Metal Fabricating4. Shoe
5. Machinery5. Machinery
6. Drug6. Biotechnology
7. Shoe7. Drug
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Cement and Aggregates10. Insurance (Life)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Healthcare Information
52. Healthcare Information52. Computers and Peripherals
53. Chemical (Basic)53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Electronics54. Medical Supplies
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Semiconductor
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Petroleum (Producing)58. Electronics
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. E-Commerce60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/9/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AYI, ADBE, AFL, APD, ALRM, ALK, AYX, DOX, AEP, AXP, AMN, ARCB, ADP, AVY, AVA, AZTA, BZH, BERY, BMRN, BRC, BFH, CAL, CLS, CIEN, CGNX, ED, CSGS, DDS, DFS, DSGR, EPAM, EQT, EL, EZPW, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FCX, GME, GL, HSC, HQY, HSY, HD, HOV, HUBG, INFN, INTC, IBKR, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LZB, LH, LNC, RAMP, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLKN, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, JWN, OGE, OTEX, PKE, PTEN, PFE, POR, DGX, RGS, RHI, RCKY, SWN, SR, TDOC, TMO, TJX, RIG, TG, UGI, VLO, VRTX, WEX, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FXI, IHF, SLV, IGE, IHI, EWZ, EWG, EWS, IXC, ILF, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDTriple top      11/15/202212/01/2022Semiconductor
AKAMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022E-Commerce
ALKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/15/202212/01/2022Air Transport
ALBPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Chemical (Diversified)
APOGHead-and-shoulders top      11/11/202212/01/2022Building Materials
ADMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/04/202211/23/2022Food Processing
AVYHead-and-shoulders top      11/25/202212/07/2022Packaging and Container
AVNTUgly double bottom      11/03/202211/17/2022Chemical (Specialty)
BMRNDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/26/202211/09/2022Biotechnology
BBWFlag, high and tight      09/30/202212/08/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/08/202211/30/2022Food Processing
CXTriple top      11/15/202212/01/2022Cement and Aggregates
CVXHead-and-shoulders top      11/07/202211/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
CIENUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/09/2022Telecom. Equipment
CRHTriple top      11/15/202212/01/2022Cement and Aggregates
DECKPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Shoe
DVNHead-and-shoulders top      10/07/202211/15/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
^DJTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/14/202212/01/2022None
EMNTriangle, symmetrical      11/11/202212/08/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EPAMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022IT Services
EQTTriple top      11/07/202211/23/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
ELUgly double bottom      11/03/202211/29/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
REDiamond top      11/25/202212/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
XOMTriple top      11/08/202211/22/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
EZPWDead-cat bounce      12/07/202212/07/2022Financial Services
FFIVTriple bottom      10/13/202211/09/2022Internet
GSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      11/15/202211/25/2022Securities Brokerage
GOOGLUgly double bottom      11/03/202211/22/2022Internet
GFFTriangle, symmetrical      11/25/202212/08/2022Building Materials
HLITPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Telecom. Equipment
HELEHorn bottom      10/24/202211/07/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
ITWTriple top      11/14/202212/01/2022Metal Fabricating
IPITriangle, descending      11/14/202212/08/2022Chemical (Diversified)
NVTAHead-and-shoulders top      11/02/202212/01/2022Medical Services
KALUPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
LZBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202212/01/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
MANHPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022IT Services
MUPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Semiconductor
NFLXThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/29/2022Internet
NTAPDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/15/202211/25/2022Computers and Peripherals
NOCPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
ASGNTriple top      11/11/202212/01/2022Human Resources
PKEPipe top      11/21/202211/28/2022Chemical (Specialty)
PRUHead-and-shoulders top      11/02/202212/01/2022Insurance (Life)
RGAPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Insurance (Life)
SOThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/29/2022Electric Utility (East)
SWNTriple top      11/07/202211/23/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
SUMTriangle, symmetrical      11/11/202212/08/2022Cement and Aggregates
TDOCHead-and-shoulders top      10/27/202212/01/2022Healthcare Information
TDCPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TKRTriple top      11/15/202212/01/2022Metal Fabricating
VFCTriple top      11/15/202212/01/2022Apparel
VEEVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/15/202212/01/2022Healthcare Information
VRSNThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/30/2022Internet
WRBPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WSMPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Retail (Special Lines)
WDAYHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/13/202211/22/2022Computer Software and Svcs
ZBRAUgly double bottom      11/04/202211/18/2022Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 12/8/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.5% or -56.34 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 365 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 179 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 186 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/438 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/141 or 48.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is resting on a blue line of support, which I show in the chart. As strong as that support appears, this is the intraday scale, so it's not as robust as one might think (when compared to the daily or weekly scales).

Outlined in red is a symmetrical triangle. According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad), a symmetrical triangle breaks out upward 60% of the time. That's on the daily scale and that's for a bull market. One can argue that it's an intraday scale in a bear market.

Regardless, the index is going to breakout of the triangle either upward or downward. I doubt if it'll shoot out the apex in a straight line but who knows?

The market might be in a holding pattern, waiting to see what the FED does next week about interest rates. My guess is they'll vote another 3/4% hike, the market will drop on the news, and post a nice recovery the next day. If that scenario plays out, I'll likely be in there buying securities. The recovery over the next few years is going to be tasty.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, ADTN, ATSG, ALK, DOX, AEP, AEL, APA, ASH, AZTA, BERY, BKNG, BRC, BBW, BLDR, BG, CPB, CF, CIEN, ED, CONN, CCRN, CSGS, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, EPAM, EQT, EZPW, FLS, GPS, HBI, HP, HD, HUBG, IDA, INTC, IVC, KBH, KSS, LZB, LH, LANC, RAMP, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MGEE, MLKN, MOS, MUR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OMCL, OTEX, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PG, RJF, RGS, RCKY, ROG, SEE, SWN, SR, SXI, SSYS, TDOC, TXN, TOL, RIG, VRSN, V, IYE, ITB, IGE, EWZ, EIS, EWS, EWT, QLD, IXC, IXN, ILF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,638.91    
 Monthly S1  10,298.73  659.82   
 Weekly S2  10,547.50  248.77   
 Weekly S1  10,753.02  205.53   
 Daily S2  10,840.47  87.45   
 Daily S1  10,899.51  59.04   
 Low  10,910.62  11.11   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  10,922.75  12.13   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  10,958.55  35.80   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,959.97  1.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  10,963.95  3.98   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  10,969.66  5.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,975.21  5.55   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,990.46  15.24   
 Daily R1  11,028.70  38.24   
 High  11,039.81  11.11   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  11,098.85  59.04   
 Weekly Pivot  11,149.90  51.05   
 Weekly R1  11,355.42  205.53   
 Monthly R1  11,582.57  227.15   
 Weekly R2  11,752.30  169.73   
 Monthly R2  12,206.59  454.29   

Wednesday 12/7/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A bearish signal appeared yesterday but it was probably because today's (Tuesday's) drop pulled down yesterday's results. That can happen up to a week (meaning signals can appear or disappear).

It looks like the bearish divergence with the index has taken hold and we'll see the indices drop, perhaps lasting until the FED meeting next week.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 53% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 51%.
The fewest was 24% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 450 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines are worse this week compared to a week ago. They bounced off overhead resistance and now appear headed lower.

Both charts are bearish, too, so I'm looking for the indices to retrace some of their gains. We could see a third bottom form, but I don't see us getting that low. If it does form a 3rd bottom, expect it to take about 1.5 months to get there.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ATSG, AKAM, DOX, AMGN, APA, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ASH, ADSK, AZTA, BMI, BERY, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLX, ED, CR, CSGS, DVN, DRQ, EPAM, EQT, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GPS, GE, GES, HBI, HAYN, HP, HD, HUBG, IBP, IBKR, IPG, IVC, NVTA, JNJ, K, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LH, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MANH, MRO, MAS, MRK, MOS, MLI, NOV, NTGR, JWN, NOC, ASGN, OTEX, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PHM, RES, SLB, SEE, SMTC, SO, SWX, SR, SSYS, TECH, TXN, TKR, RIG, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, WSO, WMB, WWW, IYE, IEZ, FXI, IAT, IGE, IHI, EWO, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWY, EWP, TUR, PXJ, IXC, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/6/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -1.4% or -482.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 205 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 86 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 119 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 254/456 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/104 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teradyne: TER 2 stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AMD, AKAM, AA, AEP, AEL, ABC, ANIK, APA, BCPC, BECN, BERY, BRC, CX, CENX, CF, CLNE, CMTL, ED, COP, CW, XRAY, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, XOM, FDS, FISV, FORM, GES, HAYN, HP, HD, HUBG, INTC, IPG, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, LH, RAMP, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MOS, MLI, NBR, NFG, NOV, JWN, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, DGX, ROG, RES, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SWN, SCS, TEVA, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VEEV, VMC, WSO, WMB, WWW, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IAT, IGE, EWO, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWP, TUR, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,554.76    
 Monthly S1  32,250.93  1,696.17   
 Weekly S2  33,030.39  779.46   
 Monthly Pivot  33,423.22  392.83   
 Weekly S1  33,488.74  65.52   
 Daily S2  33,554.29  65.55   
 Daily S1  33,750.70  196.40   
 Low  33,846.81  96.11   
 Close  33,947.10  100.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,033.58  86.48   
 Weekly Pivot  34,042.13  8.55   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,043.21  1.09   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,091.27  48.05   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,148.96  57.69   
 Daily R1  34,239.62  90.66   
 Open  34,335.73  96.11   
 High  34,335.73  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  34,500.48  164.75   
 Daily R2  34,532.13  31.65   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  35,053.87  521.73   
 Monthly R1  35,119.39  65.52   
 Monthly R2  36,291.68  1,172.29   

Monday 12/5/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At AB appears a double top. The chart pattern has two peaks separated by a valley. A close below the valley means confirmation and a valid chart pattern. Until confirmation happens, you don't have a double top. A close above the tallest peaks of either A or B means the pattern is invalid (before confirmation, that is).

I show confirmation happening at C.

LHR is another chart pattern called a head-and-shoulders bottom. L is the left shoulder, H is the head, and R is the right shoulder. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the right armpit, at D.

A throwback happens at E before a resumption of the upward trend. Notice the strong move upward after E.

Right now, we see the index closing in on overhead resistance (the horizontal red line without a label). The index could stall or reverse there.

$ $ $

I released new research on tax loss selling. When's the best time (of the month) to buy back in after selling?

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 497.57 points.
Tuesday: Up 3.07 points.
Wednesday: Up 737.24 points.
Thursday: Down 194.76 points.
Friday: Up 34.87 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 82.85 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 235.14 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 45.58 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     20.1% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     27.7% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     13.6% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     15.5% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     16.6% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,874  34,152  34,318  34,595  34,761 
Weekly  33,191  33,811  34,203  34,822  35,215 
Monthly  30,716  32,573  33,584  35,441  36,453 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,006  4,039  4,060  4,093  4,113 
Weekly  3,874  3,973  4,037  4,136  4,199 
Monthly  3,554  3,813  3,957  4,215  4,359 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,221  11,341  11,417  11,537  11,612 
Weekly  10,715  11,088  11,318  11,691  11,920 
Monthly  9,807  10,634  11,090  11,918  12,374 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ALRM, ALB, AA, AEO, ACGL, ATO, AVA, BECN, BERY, BA, BKNG, BG, CBT, CALM, CPB, CE, CENX, CF, CHD, CNA, CL, CMTL, ED, CAG, COST, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CW, XRAY, DOV, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EL, FISV, FLS, FMC, FCX, GD, GNW, GILD, GL, GPRO, GES, HE, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSIC, HD, HOV, HUBG, HURC, TILE, IVC, JAZZ, KALU, LH, LDOS, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MDT, MYGN, NOC, NUS, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PINC, PG, RGS, RLI, ROST, SLB, SEE, SHW, SR, SUM, TZOO, SLCA, VMC, WERN, ITA, IYM, IYK, IEZ, IHE, FXI, SLV, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, MXI, XLP, XLI, XLB, UNG, VHT, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Metal Fabricating1. Shoe
2. Food Processing2. Securities Brokerage
3. Securities Brokerage3. Metal Fabricating
4. Shoe4. Machinery
5. Machinery5. Food Processing
6. Biotechnology6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
7. Drug7. Retail Store
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Aerospace/Defense
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Biotechnology
10. Insurance (Life)10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Investment Co. (Foreign)
51. Healthcare Information51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
52. Computers and Peripherals52. Short ETFs
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Medical Supplies54. Computer Software and Svcs
55. Semiconductor55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Chemical (Basic)56. Medical Supplies
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Electronics
58. Electronics58. Chemical (Basic)
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. E-Commerce
60. E-Commerce60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 11/30/2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+64%)
2. Consumer staples (0%)
4. Utilities (-1%)
3. Health care (-2%)
5. Industrials (-4%)
6. Financials (-7%)
7. Materials (-9%)
8. Information technology (-22%)
9. Real estate (-24%)
10. Consumer discretionary (-30%)
11. Communication services (-35%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 11/30/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Financials
4. Consumer discretionary
5. Industrials
6. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
11. Materials
10. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 11/30/22. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+65%)
2. Energy equipment and services (+59%)
New. Gas utilities (+28%)
4. Health care providers and services (+23%)
3. Construction and engineering (+23%)
new. Independent power and renewable elec producers (+22%)
5. Food products (20%)
9. Aerospace & Defense (+19%)
6. Biotechnology (+19%)
7. Pharmaceuticals (+16%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, APD, AKAM, AA, ALL, AYX, AFG, AMWD, ANIK, AON, APOG, ARCB, ADM, ATO, AXS, BERY, BKH, BA, BBW, BG, CLS, CNP, CF, CVX, CSCO, CNA, CTSH, CMCO, ED, CR, CCK, DDS, ^DJU, DRQ, DUK, EFX, RE, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FORM, FTNT, IT, GE, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, GES, HE, HL, HELE, HNI, HOLX, HD, DHI, HUBG, IEX, ILMN, IBP, IBKR, INTU, IVC, KMB, LH, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MCO, MS, MOS, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, OLN, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PETS, PFE, RJF, RNG, ROK, CRM, SIGI, SRE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, LUV, SR, SXI, TECH, TFX, TDC, TJX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VMC, ITA, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, SLV, IGE, EWK, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWP, THD, EWU, PPA, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, GLD, XLK, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

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Thursday 12/1/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 4.4% or 484.22 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 3.3% on 3 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 100.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 247/437 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/141 or 48.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum (cryptocurrency) on the daily scale.

At B, the currency shows a long region of support or resistance. You can consider this a rectangle bottom. Notice how the currency shot upward after the end of B.

Now, the currency looks to climb to confirmation of a double bottom. Confirmation means the currency needs to close above the highest peak between the two bottoms. I drew the red line incorrectly to show confirmation. The highest spike after the first bottom happens a day later. So the coin would need to close above that level to confirm. If confirmed, look for the coin to rise higher.

Until confirmation, anything can happen. (Well, even after confirmation anything can happen).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, DOX, AMED, AMN, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BERY, BIG, BBW, BG, CACI, CPB, CF, CRL, CHKP, CSCO, CLX, CONN, COST, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DDS, DTE, EXC, FDS, FAST, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GIS, GNW, GES, HBI, HSY, HD, HUBG, IDXX, INTC, IBKR, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, K, LHX, LH, RAMP, MHO, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MDC, MLKN, NFG, NTAP, OXM, PKE, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PNW, CRM, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SR, TZOO, TG, VC, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWO, EEM, EWH, EIS, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, PPA, DBA, PBE, ILF, XLP, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,844.83    
 Monthly S1  10,656.41  811.59   
 Daily S2  10,799.06  142.65   
 Weekly S2  10,916.33  117.27   
 Low  10,966.53  50.20   
 Open  10,995.20  28.67   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  11,074.52  79.32   
 Daily S1  11,133.53  59.01   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,158.27  24.74   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  11,192.17  33.90   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,217.50  25.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Weekly Pivot  11,251.49  33.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,276.73  25.24   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  11,301.00  24.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,468.00  167.00   
 High  11,468.47  0.47   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  11,527.33  58.86   
 Weekly R2  11,586.65  59.33   
 Daily R1  11,635.47  48.82   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Daily R2  11,802.94  167.47   
 Monthly R1  11,886.10  83.16   
 Monthly R2  12,304.21  418.10   

Wednesday 11/30/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has flipped from neutral to bearish to neutral over three days. It's as if the indicator can't make up its mind.

The indicator is at 53% today (Tuesday, after the close), which is neutral. I do see bearish divergence between the indicator and the index. It suggests the index is going lower. Clearly with the flip to neutral to bearish, it tried but failed to stay bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 51% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 53%.
The fewest was 24% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 450 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines shows improvement, according to the above statistics, but the improvements are minor.

The blue line hugs price and the red line is like the index on steroids. Both lines appear bullish this week (trending upward, that is).

The prior chart is neutral and this one is bullish but approaching overhead resistance. I don't know what will happen in the coming week. My gut tells me the index will rise, but I'm frequently wrong.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, ATSG, AYX, AMZN, AEP, AAPL, AMAT, AIZ, ATO, AZTA, BSET, BERY, BMRN, BOOT, BLDR, BG, CE, CLS, CENX, CF, CLX, COST, CCK, EL, RE, EVRG, FFIV, FAST, GL, GES, HBI, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HUBG, IBP, IBKR, KBH, KMT, KMB, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, L, MTRN, MTRX, MU, MSFT, MS, NTGR, NEE, NUS, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PATK, PAYX, PINC, PHM, RJF, RGS, RCKY, SWX, TPR, TGT, TER, TEVA, TXN, TOL, TZOO, TG, VLO, VEEV, WRB, WLK, WEX, WSM, WOLF, ZBRA, ITA, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, SOXX, SLV, EWO, EEM, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWD, EWT, THD, PPA, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
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