Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023
As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023

January 2023 Headlines

Archives


Monday 1/30/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The red lines highlight a chart pattern that I call an inverted roof. It looks like the top half of a diamond or a roof top flipped upside down. In this case, the index rises into the start of the pattern (the move from A to B).

That incoming rise distinguishes the roof pattern (in a case like this) from a head-and-shoulders bottom or the complex variety.

No clear right shoulder mirrors the left one near the same price, so it's not a head-and-shoulders.

Inverted roof patterns breakout upward and downward about equally (51% to 49%, respectively). They are rare patterns with a performance that's near the bottom (worst) of the list.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 254.07 points.
Tuesday: Up 104.4 points.
Wednesday: Up 9.88 points.
Thursday: Up 205.57 points.
Friday: Up 28.67 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 602.59 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 481.28 points or 4.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 97.95 points or 2.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     3.6% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.6% down from the high of 11,691.89 on 01/27/2023.
     13.2% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.6% down from the high of 4,094.21 on 01/27/2023.
     7.3% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,658  33,818  33,991  34,151  34,325 
Weekly  32,914  33,446  33,805  34,337  34,696 
Monthly  32,181  33,080  33,711  34,609  35,241 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,026  4,048  4,071  4,094  4,117 
Weekly  3,893  3,982  4,038  4,127  4,183 
Monthly  3,668  3,869  3,982  4,183  4,295 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,373  11,497  11,595  11,719  11,816 
Weekly  10,838  11,230  11,461  11,853  12,084 
Monthly  9,689  10,655  11,174  12,140  12,658 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALGT, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMN, ARCB, AVNT, AVA, BBW, CPB, CX, CNC, CNP, CVX, CHD, CNO, CL, CAG, DECK, DDS, DSGR, ^DJU, DRQ, ELV, EL, EZPW, FICO, FAST, GME, GE, GNW, GL, THG, HLIT, HAYN, HSII, HURC, IIIN, IVC, KELYA, KMT, LHX, L, MTSI, MRTN, NI, NUS, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PAYX, PLXS, POR, PPL, RJF, RNG, ROG, ROST, R, SAIA, SCHW, SMG, SHOP, SPLK, SXI, SNPS, TFX, TEVA, TG, UNH, VLO, V, VC, WERN, WSM, ZBRA, IAT, EWK, EWC, EWJ, EWW, TUR, PPA, PBE, IXN, ILF, XLY, XHB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Shoe
4. Internet4. Metals and Mining (Div.)
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Internet
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Metal Fabricating
7. Apparel7. Machinery
8. Homebuilding8. Apparel
9. Biotechnology9. Securities Brokerage
10. Metal Fabricating10. Biotechnology
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Telecom. Equipment50. Natural Gas (Diversified)
51. Computer Software and Svcs51. Furn/Home Furnishings
52. Computers and Peripherals52. Human Resources
53. Household Products53. Electronics
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Computers and Peripherals
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. E-Commerce
56. Air Transport56. Computer Software and Svcs
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Short ETFs
59. Electronics59. Air Transport
60. Healthcare Information60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/27/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AJRD, ALB, AIG, ABC, ANET, ADP, AVA, AXS, BMI, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BOOT, BBW, BLDR, CPB, CNP, CVX, CAG, COTY, DSGR, EFX, EL, EXPI, XOM, EZPW, FARO, FAST, FIS, FLS, FTNT, GNW, GS, GPRO, HLIT, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HOV, IBP, IIIN, PODD, IPAR, IRM, JBLU, RAMP, L, M, MANH, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, META, MGEE, MUR, NOV, NTAP, NXGN, NOVT, NUS, OXY, ORI, OMCL, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PFE, RJF, RGA, RLI, ROG, R, CRM, SCHW, SMG, SCI, SLGN, SKX, SWN, SNPS, TGT, TFX, TEVA, TSCO, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, V, WMT, WDAY, IYC, IEZ, IHE, QTEC, FXI, IYZ, IGV, EWC, EEM, EWS, EWT, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, IXC, ILF, XLY, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AUgly double bottom      01/06/202301/19/2023Precision Instrument
ACGLBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      12/27/202201/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BBWTriangle, symmetrical      12/14/202201/26/2023Retail (Special Lines)
CHSBroadening bottom      12/21/202201/25/2023Apparel
CIENTriangle, symmetrical      01/05/202301/26/2023Telecom. Equipment
DFSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/20/202201/19/2023Financial Services
DTriangle, symmetrical      01/04/202301/26/2023Electric Utility (East)
FARODead-cat bounce      01/20/202301/20/2023Precision Instrument
FASTHorn bottom      01/03/202301/17/2023Retail Building Supply
HLITPipe top      01/09/202301/17/2023Telecom. Equipment
HLChannel      12/20/202201/26/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
ILMNBroadening bottom      12/20/202201/10/2023Biotechnology
MRTNHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/20/202201/19/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
OMIChannel      12/20/202201/23/2023Medical Supplies
PTENTriangle, symmetrical      12/01/202201/26/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PYPLUgly double bottom      12/22/202201/20/2023Financial Services
QTWOBroadening bottom      12/01/202201/09/2023E-Commerce
RGATriangle, symmetrical      10/28/202201/19/2023Insurance (Life)
SKYWPennant      01/13/202301/26/2023Air Transport
TWLOBroadening wedge, ascending      01/06/202301/24/2023E-Commerce
SLCATriangle, symmetrical      11/22/202201/24/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
UNMHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/17/202201/19/2023Insurance (Diversified)
VMIBroadening top      12/13/202201/13/2023Metal Fabricating
VBroadening top      01/11/202301/26/2023Financial Services

 

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Thursday 1/26/23. Ethereum (ETH-USD)

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.2% or -20.91 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 538 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 280 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 258 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 249/442 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 70/144 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily scale.

A weird looking double bottom appears at AB, but perhaps it's better called an ugly double bottom. I place a minimum move of 5% for the second bottom to form a valley above the prior one. By that I mean bottom B should be at least 5% above valley A. However, that doesn't apply to indices and probably not cryptocurrency like this one. The 5% hurdle is too high for indices and maybe cryptos.

As I was looking at the picture, I noticed the moves from the green line to D mirrors the drop from the green line to E. The drop from F to the green line mirrors the drop from the green line to A. It reminds me of the trendline measure rule where the rise above the trendline mirrors the following extent of the drop.

In this case, the drops fall short of the rises, but it's an interesting observation.

Now that the currency has peaked near the height of D, I'd expect to see a drop, finding support about halfway down to B.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AJRD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEL, AIG, AON, AMAT, ARW, AIZ, AVA, BSET, BZH, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BCO, BRKR, BBW, BLDR, CNP, CHS, CLF, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CRH, CSGS, CTS, CW, DDS, DSGR, EBAY, RE, EXC, EXPI, FAST, FORM, FDP, GD, GNW, GS, HLIT, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, IPI, IRM, KELYA, KEYS, KLIC, LZB, LEG, L, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, NBR, NFG, NTNX, PKG, PDCO, PAYX, PCG, PHM, RGA, ROG, RES, R, SEIC, NOW, SHOP, STR, SMAR, SWX, SWN, SXI, TRGP, TECH, TDY, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TDG, SLCA, VMI, VEEV, WERN, WSM, WWW, XEL, IYK, IAT, IGE, EWJ, EWS, PXJ, XLV, XRT, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,898.81    
 Monthly S1  10,606.08  707.28   
 Weekly S2  10,694.94  88.86   
 Monthly Pivot  10,914.75  219.81   
 Daily S2  10,973.88  59.13   
 Weekly S1  11,004.15  30.27   
 Low  11,069.18  65.03   
 Weekly Pivot  11,113.78  44.60   
 Daily S1  11,143.62  29.84   
 Open  11,146.53  2.91   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,170.43  23.90   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,201.70  31.27   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,232.97  31.27   
 Daily Pivot  11,238.92  5.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,313.36  74.44   
 High  11,334.22  20.86   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  11,408.66  74.44   
 Weekly R1  11,422.99  14.33   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  11,503.96  80.97   
 Weekly R2  11,532.62  28.66   
 Monthly R1  11,622.02  89.40   
 Monthly R2  11,930.69  308.66   

Wednesday 1/25/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI chart shows the most recent signal as bullish, according to the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. The blue indicator line shows it peaked and dropped back some today.

Is this a signal of a continued drop?

I don't know. I invented the Chart Pattern Indicator but that doesn't mean I know how it works (that's a joke). Back in July, we see the start of two green bars separated by about two weeks and that led to a continued move higher. So let's assume it's correct. This chart is bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 35% on 02/09/2022.
And the most was 80% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 505 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 17% on 03/29/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The blue line has merged with price but it shows no change from a week ago. The red line is bullish and has improved from last week's reading.

This week, we have two bullish charts, so let's go with the flow and say the markets over the coming week will be bullish. Of course, earnings are coming and that could upset things...so take care of each other.

$ $ $

I released a preliminary version of Patternz. It has a few bug fixes, better handling of decimal places (narrower chart margins, if you desire -- go to the chart form, the click Setup button and look for decimals) and broadening wedges finding and displaying have been improved. I continue to work on the program. Plan are to incorporate Weinstein's stages into the program and give more options for free quote uploading (yes, including you in England). That's my hope, but we'll see if I can complete it.

If you have suggestions for improvements to the program, let me know. Just remember that it's a pattern recognition program, and not an indicator program or a spreadsheet to keep track of your trades. I may tell you no and implement your feature anyway, so there's no harm in asking. Click this link for my email address.

Oh, and be sure to scan it for viruses.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADTN, AJRD, ALKS, ABC, AON, ANET, BBBY, BKNG, BBW, CPB, CNP, CENX, CHS, CIEN, CNO, CMCO, ED, CAG, CW, DECK, DSGR, BOOM, EXC, EXPI, XOM, FICO, FAST, FISV, FMC, GILD, GS, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HSIC, HNI, HUBG, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, INTU, ISRG, JKHY, JNJ, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MTRN, NFG, NOV, NEE, NXGN, NI, NUS, PKI, PNW, R, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SHOP, SLGN, STR, LUV, TDOC, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TOL, TDG, RIG, UGI, UPS, V, WU, WMB, WSM, WSC, IYZ, IGV, EWT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/24/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.8% or 254.07 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 599 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 331 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 268 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 257/460 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Transocean: RIG stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AJRD, ALB, AMGN, AON, APA, BIG, BIO, CALM, CPB, CNC, CHS, CHD, CI, CMTL, CAG, COP, CW, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, BOOM, EIX, XOM, FIS, FIVN, GME, GPS, GIS, GNW, GILD, GES, HTLD, HSIC, HOV, INFN, INTC, IVC, IRM, K, KBAL, LLY, RAMP, MU, MS, ^IXIC, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NTNX, ON, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PG, QCOM, REGN, ROG, R, CRM, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, STR, SKX, LUV, SWX, TDC, TEVA, TREX, UHAL, VLO, V, VC, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IEO, EEM, EWH, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, ROBO, IXN, XRT, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,746.21    
 Weekly S2  32,295.11  548.90   
 Monthly S1  32,687.89  392.77   
 Weekly S1  32,962.34  274.45   
 Daily S2  33,109.60  147.27   
 Low  33,316.25  206.65   
 Daily S1  33,369.58  53.33   
 Open  33,439.56  69.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,494.50  54.95   
 Monthly Pivot  33,515.10  20.60   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,549.57  34.46   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  33,576.23  26.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,604.63  28.40   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  33,616.15  11.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,629.56  13.41   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  33,782.88  153.32   
 Daily R1  33,836.21  53.33   
 Daily R2  34,042.86  206.65   
 Weekly R1  34,283.38  240.52   
 Monthly R1  34,456.78  173.40   
 Weekly R2  34,937.19  480.41   
 Monthly R2  35,283.99  346.80   

Monday 1/23/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At DEF, we see a double top. A double top is just like it sounds. It's a twin peak pattern with the two tops at about the same price. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the bottom of the valley between the two peaks. That happens at F

AB are two peaks (not as level as DE, but they are close) but in this case, it doesn't confirm yet. At C, the price bar doesn't close below the red line, so it's just squiggles on a price chart (while waiting for confirmation).

How far will price drop? We don't know but a clue is the knot below the double bottom. I would expect the index to reverse between the two green lines but that's just a guess.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 391.76 points.
Wednesday: Down 613.89 points.
Thursday: Down 252.4 points.
Friday: Up 330.93 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 927.12 points or 2.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 61.27 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.48 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.8% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     1.7% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 11,223.41 on 01/18/2023.
     8.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 4,015.39 on 01/17/2023.
     4.7% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,802  33,089  33,235  33,522  33,668 
Weekly  32,210  32,793  33,531  34,114  34,853 
Monthly  31,662  32,519  33,430  34,287  35,199 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,873  3,923  3,948  3,998  4,023 
Weekly  3,828  3,900  3,958  4,030  4,088 
Monthly  3,667  3,820  3,917  4,071  4,168 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,799  10,970  11,056  11,227  11,314 
Weekly  10,637  10,889  11,056  11,308  11,475 
Monthly  9,841  10,491  10,857  11,507  11,873 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AFL, AEE, AEP, AFG, APA, APOG, ACGL, ADM, BKH, BA, BRKR, BG, CALM, CPB, CI, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CAG, COST, CROX, CSGS, CW, DSGR, EL, RE, EVRG, EXC, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FDX, FISV, GNW, GILD, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, HURC, IDA, JBLU, JNJ, LRCX, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LMT, L, MTSI, MANH, MRTN, MTRX, META, MGEE, MLI, NFLX, NEU, OLN, OMC, ON, PANW, PKE, PKI, POR, PPG, PPL, PEG, RTX, ROG, RES, R, SMG, SIGI, NOW, STR, SO, SR, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TEVA, TZOO, VC, WRB, WEX, WMB, WOLF, FXI, SOXX, SLV, EEM, EWH, EWM, EWY, TUR, PPA, PEJ, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Shoe
3. Shoe3. Metal Fabricating
4. Metals and Mining (Div.)4. Petroleum (Integrated)
5. Internet5. Securities Brokerage
6. Metal Fabricating6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Machinery7. Internet
8. Apparel8. Machinery
9. Securities Brokerage9. Advertising
10. Biotechnology10. Apparel
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Diversified)50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Furn/Home Furnishings51. Human Resources
52. Human Resources52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Electronics53. Telecom. Equipment
54. Computers and Peripherals54. Household Products
55. E-Commerce55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Computer Software and Svcs56. Computer Software and Svcs
57. Telecom. Equipment57. Electronics
58. Short ETFs58. Air Transport
59. Air Transport59. Healthcare Information
60. Healthcare Information60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/20/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 192 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AJRD, AKAM, AA, ALL, AEP, AXP, AFG, AMWD, APH, AON, APA, ARW, AGO, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BIIB, BFH, BCO, BRKR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CPB, CNP, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CMTL, CAG, CR, CRH, CSGS, CW, DVN, DFS, ^DJI, EMN, EBAY, EME, EMR, EL, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FE, GE, GIS, GILD, GPN, GFS, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, THG, HLIT, HIG, HE, HL, HNI, HON, HWM, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, JAZZ, KALU, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MANH, MAN, MRO, MAS, MTRN, META, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, ^IXIC, NOV, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OMC, PANW, PETS, PFE, POR, PPG, PG, PEG, KWR, RTX, RCKY, RES, R, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SRE, NOW, SHW, SHOP, STR, SO, SPSC, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TRGP, TDOC, TEVA, TXT, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, VMC, WAT, WEX, WMB, ITA, IAI, ITB, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IYF, ECH, EWH, EWW, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, IEV, IXN, XLP, XLF, XRT, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANIKPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022Biotechnology
CPBHead-and-shoulders top      12/14/202201/06/2023Food Processing
CLSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/07/202212/22/2022Electronics
CNPBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/30/202201/13/2023Electric Utility (Central)
CTASHead-and-shoulders top      11/30/202212/21/2022Industrial Services
CSCODouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/13/2022Computers and Peripherals
EMRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202201/09/2023Computers and Peripherals
FDSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/22/202201/05/2023Information Services
FTNTBroadening bottom      12/27/202201/18/2023Computer Software and Svcs
GDRoof      10/24/202201/12/2023Aerospace/Defense
HEHead-and-shoulders top      12/28/202201/13/2023Electric Utility (West)
HURCCup with handle      07/25/202201/11/2023Machinery
ITGRPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Electronics
IBKRPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Securities Brokerage
NOCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/02/202201/03/2023Aerospace/Defense
OXYBroadening bottom      12/16/202201/09/2023Petroleum (Producing)
PCGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202212/28/2022Electric Utility (West)
PORMulti-peaks      11/29/202201/12/2023Electric Utility (West)
PGTriple top      12/14/202201/09/2023Household Products
RPipe top      11/21/202211/28/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCIBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/08/202201/12/2023Industrial Services
SHOPPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022E-Commerce
SCCODiamond top      12/01/202212/29/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
SRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/05/202212/16/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
SRDXDead-cat bounce      01/19/202301/19/2023Medical Supplies
TMODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202201/06/2023Precision Instrument
MGKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/28/202201/06/2023None

 

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Thursday 1/19/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.2% or -138.1 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 129 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 55 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 74 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 57.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 249/442 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/143 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't have a lot to say about what you see in the chart. The index followed an upward trend, shown here by the red line.

On Wednesday, the index pierced the uptrend by tumbling on good news about inflation moderating but Fed officials sounded a cautious note. The words pulled the rug out from under the inflation news and the markets tumbled. The tumble pushed the chart pattern indicator (not shown) into bearish territory, so this retrace might have legs...or not.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 252 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALKS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEP, AEL, AMWD, AME, AMGN, AMN, APH, AR, APA, ARW, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BIIB, BKNG, BFH, BCO, BRKR, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CALM, CPB, CNP, CENX, CVX, CHS, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNX, CMTL, CR, CRH, DHR, ^DJT, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EL, RE, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, GPS, GD, GE, GIS, GILD, GPN, GFS, GPRO, GFF, THG, HLIT, HP, HON, HWM, HURC, INFN, NSP, INTC, TILE, IVC, JNJ, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, L, M, MANH, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NI, JWN, NUS, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, RMBS, RJF, RCKY, ROG, ROL, ROP, R, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SCI, SHW, SHOP, STR, LUV, SWX, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TRGP, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TSCO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UGI, UNH, UNM, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, V, VMC, WAT, WEX, WMB, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IGV, SOXX, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWM, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWT, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, IXN, XLP, XRT, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,547.87    
 Monthly S1  10,252.44  704.57   
 Weekly S2  10,382.45  130.01   
 Weekly S1  10,669.73  287.28   
 Daily S2  10,772.80  103.07   
 Daily S1  10,864.90  92.11   
 Weekly Pivot  10,876.87  11.97   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  10,912.04  35.17   
 Low  10,952.05  40.01   
 Close  10,957.01  4.96   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,044.16  87.15   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,055.71  11.55   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,087.73  32.02   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,119.75  32.02   
 Daily R1  11,136.26  16.51   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  11,164.15  27.89   
 Open  11,170.95  6.80   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  11,223.41  52.46   
 Daily R2  11,315.52  92.11   
 Weekly R2  11,371.29  55.77   
 Monthly R1  11,616.61  245.32   
 Monthly R2  12,276.21  659.60   

Wednesday 1/18/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI shows a neutral reading as the off-white vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows.

Notice that the CPI line, the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, took a big plunge. The white bar and the shape of the CPI line can change for up to a week.

The sharp drop is concerning if it continues. It suggests a retrace will occur but we won't know that for sure until it happens.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 47%.
The fewest was 35% on 02/09/2022.
And the most was 80% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 505 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 17% on 01/18/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Price obscures the blue line so look at the thin red one. Over the last 2 weeks or so, the line has climbed steeply. The strength of the move higher is startling. Look at the index over the same span.

The index climbed but not nearly as quickly as the red line. It makes me wonder.

Both charts make me cautious. Indeed, I'm waiting for the Nasdaq to retrace so I can buy one more security to complete my portfolio rebalancing.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, APD, ALB, ABC, AME, AMGN, APA, ANET, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BBBY, BCO, BRKR, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CVX, CHS, CHD, CINF, CSCO, CLX, CNO, CL, ED, COTY, CR, CMI, DTE, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, RE, EXPI, XOM, FAST, FMC, FDP, GPS, GNW, GPN, GPRO, THG, HP, HON, HOV, HUM, INFN, NSP, INTC, TILE, ISRG, JNJ, K, KELYA, KMT, KMB, LHX, LH, LLY, L, LXU, MRTN, MCO, MS, MOS, MYGN, NJR, NEE, NI, NOC, NVDA, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PFE, PNW, PGR, RGS, ROL, ROP, SEE, SIGI, SCI, SLGN, LUV, SCS, TPR, TFX, TEVA, TSCO, TDG, TG, UNH, VLO, VMI, VRTX, V, WRB, WOLF, WWD, IYM, IYC, IYE, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, EWA, EWC, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWL, EWT, TUR, IBB, PPA, IEV, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/17/23. The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, we have a chart pattern called a double top which predicts a downward breakout. That happens when the index closes below the red line. I drew the red line connecting the lowest valley between the two peaks (C), to the right.

After the index dropped, it quickly reversed and pulled back to the breakout price and kept moving up in this case, to D.

With earnings season about to start, we'll see volatility increase and I would expect a retrace of the move from the December low to D.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 112.96 points.
Tuesday: Up 186.45 points.
Wednesday: Up 268.91 points.
Thursday: Up 216.96 points.
Friday: Up 112.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 672 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 509.87 points or 4.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 104.01 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     4.5% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 11,084.01 on 01/13/2023.
     7.9% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,003.95 on 01/13/2023.
     5.4% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,760  34,031  34,187  34,458  34,614 
Weekly  33,102  33,702  34,022  34,623  34,943 
Monthly  31,724  33,013  33,863  35,152  36,002 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,927  3,963  3,984  4,019  4,040 
Weekly  3,833  3,916  3,960  4,043  4,087 
Monthly  3,618  3,809  3,955  4,145  4,291 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,837  10,958  11,021  11,142  11,205 
Weekly  10,423  10,751  10,918  11,246  11,412 
Monthly  9,589  10,334  10,953  11,698  12,317 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 0 days.

Here's a symbol list of 159 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AES, AFL, ALB, AMZN, AAPL, ATR, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BOOT, BRKR, CDNS, CNP, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, ED, COST, CR, CMI, DSGR, DRQ, DTE, DUK, EXP, ELV, EL, RE, EXPI, FDS, FARO, FE, FIVN, FTNT, FTV, GPS, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HSC, HQY, HL, HOV, HUM, IDA, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IVC, NVTA, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LAMR, LEG, LDOS, LMT, L, MANH, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MU, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFLX, NTAP, NKE, NOC, NOVT, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, ON, OMI, OXM, PANW, PKE, PATK, PETS, PFE, POR, PRU, PEG, RTX, RGS, RHI, ROG, ROL, ROST, SAIC, SMTC, SHW, SHOP, LUV, SWX, SR, SXI, SUM, TGT, TECH, TPX, TER, TEVA, TMO, TDG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TREX, MDRX, VC, WOLF, IAI, IYC, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, SLV, IHI, EEM, EWL, IBB, PBE, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLF, GLD, XHB, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Metal Fabricating3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Petroleum (Integrated)4. Metal Fabricating
5. Securities Brokerage5. Machinery
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Securities Brokerage
7. Internet7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Machinery8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Advertising9. Advertising
10. Apparel10. Internet
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Precision Instrument
51. Human Resources51. Long ETFs
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Telecom. Equipment
53. Telecom. Equipment53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Household Products54. Computers and Peripherals
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Air Transport
56. Computer Software and Svcs56. Electronics
57. Electronics57. Computer Software and Svcs
58. Air Transport58. Short ETFs
59. Healthcare Information59. E-Commerce
60. Short ETFs60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/13/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, ALB, ALKS, AEE, ABC, AMN, AMAT, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, BBBY, BBY, BMRN, BRC, BFH, BRKR, CPB, CX, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CNO, CNX, CMTL, ED, CXW, CR, DSGR, ^DJU, DTE, DUK, BOOM, ECL, RE, EXPI, XOM, FMC, GPS, GD, GPRO, HBI, THG, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HOV, IEX, INFN, IIIN, TILE, KBAL, LEG, LDOS, LNC, LOW, MAS, MU, MCO, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NUS, NVDA, PKE, PDCO, PETS, PFE, POR, PPG, PINC, PEG, RGS, ROK, ROG, ^GSPC, SLB, SKX, SKYW, LUV, SXI, TRGP, TFX, TEVA, TXN, TDG, TG, UGI, UNH, VECO, VEEV, V, VMC, WMT, WOLF, ZBRA, IAI, ITB, IDU, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IYZ, SLV, EWO, ECH, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWP, QLD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLF, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/28/202201/06/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ALBPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Chemical (Diversified)
ALGTUgly double bottom      10/12/202211/03/2022Air Transport
ATRThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/30/2022Packaging and Container
BOOTUgly double bottom      11/03/202212/20/2022Shoe
CACIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/02/202201/06/2023IT Services
CALPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Shoe
CEThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202212/22/2022Chemical (Basic)
CENXHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/06/202212/19/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLFPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/28/202201/06/2023Household Products
CXWPipe top      11/28/202212/05/2022Industrial Services
DECKThree Rising Valleys      09/30/202212/20/2022Shoe
^DJTDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      12/22/202212/30/2022None
EZPWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      12/12/202212/28/2022Financial Services
FRDPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Building Materials
HTLDTriple bottom      12/20/202201/05/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/06/202209/26/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
HOVPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Homebuilding
IDATriangle, symmetrical      12/13/202201/12/2023Electric Utility (West)
ISRGHead-and-shoulders top      12/01/202201/09/2023Medical Supplies
JKHYDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/20/202201/05/2023IT Services
JNJDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/14/202201/06/2023Medical Supplies
LAMRHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/07/202201/03/2023Advertising
MROBroadening wedge, descending      12/13/202201/09/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
MYGNPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Biotechnology
NBRPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NWLTriple bottom      11/03/202212/22/2022Household Products
NOVTTriple top      11/15/202212/02/2022Precision Instrument
NVDAPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Semiconductor
ONDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/28/202201/05/2023Semiconductor
QTWOPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022E-Commerce
RJFDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/19/202201/05/2023Securities Brokerage
ROGUgly double bottom      11/21/202212/22/2022Electronics
RESPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
CRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      12/08/202212/22/2022E-Commerce
SLBPipe bottom      12/05/202212/12/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SLGNTriangle, descending      11/30/202201/12/2023Packaging and Container
SKYWPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022Air Transport
SCCOThree Rising Valleys      09/26/202212/19/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
LUVPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Air Transport
SPLKUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/04/2022E-Commerce
SPSCThree Rising Valleys      05/18/202207/14/2022E-Commerce
SXIPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Diversified Co.
TFXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202201/10/2023Diversified Co.
TKRHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/07/202201/03/2023Metal Fabricating
TWLODead-cat bounce      11/04/202211/04/2022E-Commerce
WSMTriple bottom      12/06/202201/03/2023Retail (Special Lines)
WOLFPipe bottom      12/27/202201/03/2023Semiconductor
XLKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/28/202201/06/2023IT Services

 

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Thursday 1/12/23. What's Up with BitCoin?

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.8% or 189.04 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 64 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 35 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 29 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/441 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/143 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin on the weekly scale.

I drew a red line, composed of short segments joined together. The first one, C, has a good slope, but not nearly as steep as the one that followed, B. Trend B has more touches than the prior line (which had only 2).

Line C isn't a trendline at all because of only two touches. Indeed, I didn't focus on drawing a typical trendline, but rather just connecting peaks to see how it shows the trend.

Line A suggests that for bitcoin to change trend, it has to close above segment A. That's the big take-away of this chart.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 208 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, ADTN, APD, ALK, ALB, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AEL, AXP, AFG, ABC, APH, AR, ARW, AGO, ADP, AZTA, BZH, BBBY, BBY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BRKR, BLDR, CALM, CNP, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CMTL, COTY, CR, CRH, CROX, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, DTE, EMN, EBAY, ECL, ELV, EME, EPAM, RE, EXC, EXPI, FDS, FARO, FAST, FDX, GME, GPS, IT, GE, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HL, HD, DHI, HOV, HURC, ITW, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, TILE, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, KMT, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LH, LAMR, LEG, LDOS, LOW, MHO, MTSI, MCHX, MLM, MCO, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NCR, NWL, NXGN, NUS, NVDA, OGE, OUT, PTEN, PETS, PFE, POR, PINC, PFG, PHM, KWR, REGN, RGS, ROK, ROG, RES, R, ^GSPC, SRE, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SSYS, SNPS, TFX, TMO, TKR, TOL, TDG, TG, TREX, UHAL, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VLO, MDRX, WSO, WU, WLK, WSM, WOLF, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWD, TUR, QLD, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, UNG, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,539.42    
 Monthly S1  10,235.55  696.12   
 Weekly S2  10,255.24  19.69   
 Weekly S1  10,593.45  338.22   
 Weekly Pivot  10,603.26  9.80   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  10,705.90  102.65   
 Low  10,762.73  56.83   
 Open  10,794.99  32.26   
 Daily S1  10,818.79  23.80   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,827.56  8.77   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,847.58  20.03   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,867.61  20.03   
 Daily Pivot  10,875.61  8.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  10,903.59  27.98   
 Close  10,931.67  28.08   
 High  10,932.44  0.77   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  10,941.47  9.03   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  10,951.28  9.80   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  10,988.50  37.22   
 Daily R2  11,045.32  56.83   
 Monthly R1  11,599.72  554.39   
 Monthly R2  12,267.76  668.05   

Wednesday 1/11/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has flipped to bullish (green) as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows. As the index made a descending scallop pattern, the CPI climbed from A to B.

With the CPI so high, it suggests a retrace will come soon. That's also confirmed by the chart pattern, where the right lip is well below the left one.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 54%.
The fewest was 28% on 01/11/2022.
And the most was 80% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 505 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 26%.
The peak was 15% on 01/11/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines made progress this week compared to last week. However, look at the red line. It has climbed substantially over the past week or so.

It suggests there's strength in the move.

Although both charts are bullish, the prior one suggests caution, that the up move is overextended. So I'm cautious also. I expect a retrace to begin shortly.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, ALB, ALGT, AIG, AMN, ANIK, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BRC, BFH, BRKR, CACI, CENX, CF, CHKP, CINF, CTAS, CONN, GLW, CSGS, XRAY, DFS, BOOM, EMN, EBAY, EXPI, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FTV, GPS, IT, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HAYN, HSIC, HSY, HD, HOV, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IVC, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LDOS, LEN, LNC, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MAN, MTRX, MDC, META, MU, MCO, MS, MOS, MYGN, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NEU, NWPX, NVDA, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PFE, QTWO, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RGS, ROK, ROG, SHOP, STR, SKYW, LUV, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TDOC, TXN, TOL, TDG, TREX, TWLO, V, WSC, WOLF, WWD, IYC, ITB, BOTZ, QQQ, EWQ, EWY, TUR, QLD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XHB, SPY, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/10/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -112.96 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1081 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 511 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 570 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 257/460 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/105 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Torchmark: TMK (support and resistance) stock.

$ $ $

For those who have read or downloaded the spreadsheet according to my Retirement article, I flubbed the Excel sheet so I'm reworking the article. I should have it done sometime on Tuesday 1/10.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 205 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, A, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALGT, AEO, AIG, AMGN, APH, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ARW, AGO, AZTA, BALL, BAX, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BFH, BMY, BRKR, BBW, CACI, CLS, CX, CNC, CHKP, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CR, CSGS, CW, DECK, DFS, DSGR, ELV, EMR, EQT, XOM, FORM, FCX, FDP, FRD, GD, GPRO, HBI, HP, HSIC, DHI, HUM, INCY, INFN, NSP, INTC, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LLY, L, LOW, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MA, MDC, MRK, MYGN, NOV, NCR, NWL, NXGN, NOC, NUS, ON, PTEN, PFE, PLXS, PGR, QTWO, DGX, RL, RJF, RTX, ROK, CRM, SLB, SEE, SHOP, SLGN, SKYW, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TRGP, TER, TXN, TXT, TDG, TG, TREX, TWLO, VECO, V, WAT, ITA, IYM, IAI, IEZ, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IYZ, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLF, XLV, XLB, XAR, VHT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,462.27    
 Weekly S2  32,448.55  986.28   
 Monthly S1  32,489.96  41.41   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  32,983.10  493.14   
 Daily S2  33,199.36  216.25   
 Weekly Pivot  33,346.88  147.52   
 Daily S1  33,358.50  11.63   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  33,487.66  129.16   
 Close  33,517.65  29.99   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  33,601.12  83.47   
 Daily Pivot  33,646.81  45.69   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,658.59  11.78   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  33,664.39  5.80   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,711.39  47.00   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,764.18  52.80   
 Daily R1  33,805.95  41.77   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  33,881.43  75.48   
 High  33,935.11  53.68   
 Daily R2  34,094.26  159.15   
 Weekly R2  34,245.21  150.95   
 Monthly R1  34,628.81  383.60   
 Monthly R2  35,739.97  1,111.16   

Monday 1/9/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow xxx on the daily scale.

I completed new research on "serious" bear markets (drops of 30% or more) and found that stocks take that size hit once every 2 years, ETFs do it once every 3 years, and mutual funds once every 7.5 years. Read the article (link) for more information.

$ $ $

I looked back at a post 3 weeks ago and found that my prediction was right about the Dow turning up at support. I got one right!

$ $ $

I show the Nasdaq on the daily scale in the chart.

The red lines encompass a chart pattern called a broadening top. Notice how price enters the pattern with a strong upward run, from A. The index forms the broadening top as it decides which direction to move, and with a downward breakout, it returns the index back to the launch price (A).

This move (a return to the launch price, or A = B) is unusual for two reasons.

First, it rarely works, but when it does, it provides a handy target to plan a move.

Second, when it does work, price often stops the decline to B above the low posted at the launch price, A. In other words B > A (but not by much).

This strength suggests the index will rise in the coming week...at least that's my guess.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 10.88 points.
Wednesday: Up 133.4 points.
Thursday: Down 339.69 points.
Friday: Up 700.53 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 483.36 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 102.81 points or 1.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.58 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 33,710.66 on 01/06/2023.
     2.5% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 10,613.06 on 01/03/2023.
     3.0% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 3,906.19 on 01/06/2023.
     2.7% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,733  33,182  33,446  33,895  34,159 
Weekly  32,486  33,058  33,385  33,957  34,283 
Monthly  31,500  32,565  33,639  34,704  35,778 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,774  3,834  3,870  3,931  3,967 
Weekly  3,753  3,824  3,865  3,936  3,977 
Monthly  3,584  3,739  3,920  4,076  4,257 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,140  10,355  10,479  10,694  10,819 
Weekly  10,134  10,352  10,482  10,700  10,830 
Monthly  9,419  9,994  10,783  11,358  12,147 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 7 days.

Here's a symbol list of 173 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, AMZN, AMGN, APH, ANIK, APOG, ATR, ACGL, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BCPC, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIO, BAH, BSX, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CINF, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CTSH, GLW, COST, CR, CTS, CMI, DHR, ^DJU, ^DJT, DRQ, EXP, EMN, ECL, EL, FLS, FORM, FCX, FRD, GIS, GPN, GL, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HL, HP, DHI, HWM, HUN, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INFN, INTC, IPG, IVC, JBLU, KBH, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LAMR, LMT, L, MAN, MTRN, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MLI, NWL, NEU, JWN, NOC, NUS, ORI, OMC, ON, PKG, PATK, PNW, PPG, PGR, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROST, SEE, SMTC, SKX, SCCO, SR, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TXT, TOL, TDG, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, V, WMT, WAT, WERN, WSM, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYK, IDU, FTEC, FXI, IYZ, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EIS, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWT, THD, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLB, XAR, XLK, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Homebuilding
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Metal Fabricating
4. Metal Fabricating4. Machinery
5. Machinery5. Food Processing
6. Securities Brokerage6. Securities Brokerage
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Biotechnology
8. Metals and Mining (Div.)8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Advertising9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Internet10. Drug
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Precision Instrument50. Medical Supplies
51. Long ETFs51. Natural Gas (Diversified)
52. Telecom. Equipment52. Natural Gas (Distributor)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Computers and Peripherals54. Computers and Peripherals
55. Air Transport55. Petroleum (Producing)
56. Electronics56. Air Transport
57. Computer Software and Svcs57. Electronics
58. Short ETFs58. Healthcare Information
59. E-Commerce59. E-Commerce
60. Healthcare Information60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/6/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AEIS, AMZN, ABC, AMN, ANIK, ATR, AIZ, ATO, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BBBY, BAH, CE, CLS, CX, CSCO, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, CCK, CTS, CMI, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FLS, FORM, FDP, GIS, GL, GOOGL, HSII, DHI, HUBG, ILMN, INCY, INTC, IPI, K, KELYA, KSS, LXU, MRTN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, NXGN, NWPX, OGE, OMCL, PATK, PFE, PLXS, RGS, RGA, RES, SRDX, TJX, TG, TREX, WRB, WSC, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IDU, FXL, FXI, ICF, EWJ, EWS, TUR, DBA, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AFGPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ABCPipe top      11/28/202212/05/2022Biotechnology
APAThree Falling Peaks      11/07/202212/27/2022Petroleum (Producing)
BBBYDead-cat bounce      01/05/202301/05/2023Retail (Special Lines)
CXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/16/202212/30/2022Cement and Aggregates
CNCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/01/202212/08/2022Medical Services
CRHBroadening top      11/23/202212/16/2022Cement and Aggregates
CTSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/16/202212/22/2022Electronics
XRAYPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Medical Supplies
^DJUHead-and-shoulders top      12/01/202212/28/2022None
HUMThree Falling Peaks      11/03/202212/28/2022Medical Services
IIINPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Building Materials
PODDDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/07/202212/14/2022Medical Supplies
INTCPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022Semiconductor
IPGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/09/202212/19/2022Advertising
MCHXHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/16/202212/29/2022Advertising
PATKTriangle, symmetrical      12/12/202201/05/2023Retail Building Supply
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202212/28/2022Apparel
SAIADouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/15/202212/13/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCSPipe bottom      12/12/202212/19/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
TREXPipe bottom      12/19/202212/27/2022Building Materials
WATTriangle, symmetrical      11/29/202201/05/2023Precision Instrument
WERNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/20/202212/30/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WLKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/11/202212/13/2022Chemical (Basic)

 

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Thursday 1/5/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.7% or 71.78 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 445 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 270 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 175 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/440 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/143 or 48.3% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What struck me first is the near horizontal move of the index. I drew a horizontal red line to highlight this.

Below that is a complex head-and-shoulders bottom. I highlight the chart pattern by showing the left shoulder (LS), shoulders 1, 2, and 3, mirroring 2, 1, and RS (right shoulder) on the right side of the dual head.

All of this suggests the index will rise in the coming days. First, though, we have to see the index close above the horizontal red line. If that happens, then it'll confirm the chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALB, AMZN, AXP, ABC, ANIK, ATR, ASH, ADSK, AVA, BSET, BMRN, BKNG, BSX, BMY, BG, CLS, CX, CSCO, CNO, CMTL, CONN, COST, CRH, CCK, CMI, XRAY, DFS, DSGR, D, DUK, EL, RE, EVRG, EVH, FFIV, FLS, FDP, GE, GNW, GES, HSIC, HNI, HON, HWM, HUBG, HUN, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, INTC, IPI, ISRG, IVC, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LEN, L, LOW, M, MRO, MLM, MAS, MSFT, MCO, NCR, NWL, NEU, NKE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PYPL, PFE, PINC, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RGS, RCKY, SAIA, CRM, NOW, SKX, SWX, SR, SSYS, TFX, TEVA, TXN, TSCO, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, V, VMC, WRB, WSM, WSC, WDAY, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IEO, IHI, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWL, PPA, IEV, XHB, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,381.79    
 Monthly S1  9,920.27  538.49   
 Weekly S2  10,094.83  174.55   
 Daily S2  10,259.63  164.80   
 Weekly S1  10,276.79  17.17   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  10,337.64  60.85   
 Daily S1  10,359.19  21.55   
 Weekly Pivot  10,389.44  30.24   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,405.48  16.04   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,426.43  20.95   
 Daily Pivot  10,437.21  10.78   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,447.38  10.18   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  10,458.76  11.38   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  10,467.82  9.06   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  10,515.22  47.40   
 Daily R1  10,536.77  21.55   
 Weekly R1  10,571.40  34.63   
 Daily R2  10,614.79  43.38   
 Weekly R2  10,684.05  69.26   
 Monthly Pivot  10,745.96  61.91   
 Monthly R1  11,284.44  538.49   
 Monthly R2  12,110.13  825.68   

Wednesday 1/4/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows a transition from neutral to bullish and back to neutral. The signals can change for up to a week. Often they will change after the index makes a big move and kicks stocks to begin trending.

To me, this looks like the index is going to move higher in the coming days. Even though the signal is neutral, I remain bullish for the short term.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 54% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 53%.
The fewest was 23% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line is worse off than it was a week ago. The blue line, the less volatile of the two lines, shows no change.

Both lines appear to be moving sideways. Although the downtrend can continue and it might look like a measured move down, to me it shows strength.

Look back in June where we see the inverted image of what we see this past week. There, we see price rise, go horizontal and then drop. I expect the same now (except inverted). A down move, a horizontal move (both of which are in place), followed by a rise. Call this the January effect.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AES, AFL, ALK, ALB, ALL, AEE, AEL, AFG, ABC, APOG, AAPL, AWI, AGO, AVNT, AVA, BBBY, BA, BSX, BG, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CNC, CLNE, CMTL, COST, CCK, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EQT, EL, EVH, FICO, FTNT, FRD, GME, GNW, GFS, GFF, HL, HUBG, INFN, PODD, IPG, IPI, IVC, JAZZ, KBH, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LAMR, LANC, L, MTSI, M, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, META, NCR, NEE, NKE, JWN, NOC, NWPX, NVDA, OMC, OTEX, OUT, OMI, OXM, PANW, PYPL, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, REGN, RGS, RCKY, CRM, SCHW, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TXN, TKR, TSCO, VEEV, VRSN, WLK, WSC, WOLF, FXI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, SSO, GLD, XLB, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/3/23. 2023 Forecast

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -73.55 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1238 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 621 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 617 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 257/459 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/105 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 12/29/2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+58%)
3. Utilities (-0%)
2. Consumer staples (-3%)
4. Health care (-3%)
5. Industrials (-7%)
6. Financials (-12%)
7. Materials (-13%)
9. Real estate (-28%)
8. Information technology (-29%)
10. Consumer discretionary (-37%)
11. Communication services (-40%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 12/23/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Financials
4. Consumer discretionary
5. Industrials
6. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
10. Materials
11. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 12/29/22. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Energy equipment and services (+59%)
1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+56%)
5. Construction and engineering (+25%)
6. Independent power and renewable elec producers (+21%)
8. Aerospace & Defense (+15%)
9. Biotechnology (+14%)
7. Food products (+11%)
3. Gas utilities (+11%)
New. Insurance (+9%)
4. Health care providers and services (+7%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 56 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, APD, AEE, AEO, AFG, AVA, CBT, CAL, CENX, CLF, CNO, CMCO, ED, CAG, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EVH, GPS, GE, HE, HL, HSII, HELE, HUBG, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IBKR, KMB, LOW, NOC, OXM, PINC, PEG, RL, RGS, SCHW, SXI, SCS, WSC, IYM, EWZ, ECH, THD, PBE, PXJ, ILF, MXI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,338.80    
 Monthly S1  32,243.03  904.22   
 Weekly S2  32,587.70  344.67   
 Daily S2  32,744.48  156.78   
 Low  32,847.82  103.34   
 Weekly S1  32,867.47  19.65   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  32,945.86  78.39   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,964.23  18.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,000.18  35.96   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,036.14  35.96   
 Daily Pivot  33,049.21  13.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  33,121.61  72.40   
 Weekly Pivot  33,127.60  5.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Close  33,147.25  19.65   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  33,152.55  5.30   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,250.59  98.04   
 Daily R2  33,353.94  103.34   
 Weekly R1  33,407.38  53.44   
 Monthly Pivot  33,477.65  70.28   
 Weekly R2  33,667.50  189.84   
 Monthly R1  34,381.88  714.38   
 Monthly R2  35,616.50  1,234.63   

 

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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