As of 10/17/2024
Indus: 43,239 +161.35 +0.4%
Trans: 16,333 -229.97 -1.4%
Utils: 1,062 -5.91 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 18,374 +6.53 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,841 -1.00 0.0%
|
YTD
+14.7%
+2.7%
+20.5%
+22.4%
+22.5%
|
 43,500 or 41,600 by 11/01/202416,800 or 15,700 by 11/01/20241,075 or 1,000 by 11/01/202419,000 or 17,600 by 11/01/20245,900 or 5,675 by 11/01/2024 |
As of 10/17/2024
Indus: 43,239 +161.35 +0.4%
Trans: 16,333 -229.97 -1.4%
Utils: 1,062 -5.91 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 18,374 +6.53 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,841 -1.00 0.0%
|
YTD
+14.7%
+2.7%
+20.5%
+22.4%
+22.5%
| |
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 11/01/202416,800 or 15,700 by 11/01/20241,075 or 1,000 by 11/01/202419,000 or 17,600 by 11/01/20245,900 or 5,675 by 11/01/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on July 2, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
I circled at A the many switches between bearish (red vertical bars) and neutral (white bars). I think this is bearish but the market isn't listening to me. 
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
Highlighted in green is what might be called bearish divergence. That happens when the indicator goes down while the stock/index rises. The Dow is up 4% this year with a forecast high of 6%.
This is the Nasdaq. The horizontal green line at A shows that the index bottomed about a month earlier than the forecast. The index, with a gain of 20%, is far above the forecast high of 8%.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
The forecast says to expect weakness from today to early August and again in mid October. The forecast predicts a high up 8% while the index is up 15% year-to-date.
Here's the updated Nasdaq 10-year forecast. Look for a gain over that span of 178% (the highest close).
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