As of 09/27/2024
Indus: 42,313 +137.89 +0.3%
Trans: 16,186 +102.24 +0.6%
Utils: 1,055 +10.41 +1.0%
Nasdaq: 18,120 -70.70 -0.4%
S&P 500: 5,738 -7.20 -0.1%
|
YTD
+12.3%
+1.8%
+19.7%
+20.7%
+20.3%
|
 43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/202416,800 or 16,000 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024 |
As of 09/27/2024
Indus: 42,313 +137.89 +0.3%
Trans: 16,186 +102.24 +0.6%
Utils: 1,055 +10.41 +1.0%
Nasdaq: 18,120 -70.70 -0.4%
S&P 500: 5,738 -7.20 -0.1%
|
YTD
+12.3%
+1.8%
+19.7%
+20.7%
+20.3%
| |
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/202416,800 or 16,000 by 10/01/20241,100 or 1,000 by 10/01/202418,400 or 16,650 by 10/01/20245,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on May 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The indicator is neutral as the white bars on the far right of the chart shows. This comes after a bearish turn near the peak in the index. Based only on this chart, a green bar (bullish) follows a red-white bar combination most often.
This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red.
The forecast bumps up and down a lot but doesn't really go anywhere until October. Starting then, the forecast climbs from the bottom of the chart to the top. If the forecast is correct, then you'll want to be in the market in early October.
This is the Nasdaq.
You can see how the index is well above the forecast. According to the forecast, May was the low for the year and we climb from there in a series of waves to reach the top of the chart by year end, up 8%.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024
This chart also shows the performance of the index beating the forecast. We were supposed to hit bottom in February and rise from there to year end, up 8%. July is forecast to be a weak month when the market drops going into August. Over 10 years, the index almost triples (178%).
Here's the updated Nasdaq 10-year forecast.
The Nasdaq should do well until mid 2028 where it takes a significant dip. The recovery resumes, though, until early 2032 before weakness again sets in.
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