Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

April 2024 Headlines

Archives


Monday 4/15/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

What I see that's remarkable is that the index has held up so well. Compare the sideways move in the Nasdaq with the steep drop in the Dow industrials.

I show the Dow in the inset.

Of course the industrials are only 30 stocks while the Nasdaq has substantially more issues, weighted by high-tech stocks.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 11.24 points.
Tuesday: Down 9.13 points.
Wednesday: Down 422.16 points.
Thursday: Down 2.43 points.
Friday: Down 475.84 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 920.8 points or 2.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 73.43 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 80.93 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.8% down from the high of 39,889.05 on 03/21/2024.
     2.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 16,538.86 on 03/21/2024.
     11.7% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     2.7% down from the high of 5,264.85 on 03/28/2024.
     9.4% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  37,618  37,801  38,060  38,242  38,502 
Weekly  37,155  37,569  38,291  38,705  39,427 
Monthly  36,571  37,277  38,583  39,289  40,595 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,068  5,096  5,135  5,163  5,203 
Weekly  5,035  5,079  5,152  5,196  5,269 
Monthly  4,986  5,055  5,160  5,228  5,334 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,998  16,086  16,214  16,303  16,430 
Weekly  15,871  16,023  16,244  16,396  16,616 
Monthly  15,600  15,888  16,213  16,501  16,826 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 1 days.

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, AA, AEO, AEL, ANIK, ADM, ANET, AIZ, AGO, AZTA, BALL, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, BFH, BMY, BG, CBT, CNP, CF, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CINF, CNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CSGS, DHR, XRAY, FANG, DDS, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EIX, EL, FICO, FDX, FWRD, GNW, GL, GS, HSII, HSIC, HWM, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, INFN, INTC, KALU, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LANC, LEG, LMT, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MDT, MRK, NEU, NOC, NUS, OR, PKG, PRFT, PPG, PPL, PFG, RL, RRC, RJF, RCKY, ROL, SAIC, SHW, STR, SKX, SCCO, TRGP, TFX, TDC, RIG, VFC, VLO, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WERN, WPM, WSC, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IHE, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, SLV, IYF, IHI, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EIS, EPP, EWS, EWT, PBE, PEJ, SSO, XLV, XAR, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Apparel3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Semiconductor4. Apparel
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Semiconductor
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Cement and Aggregates
7. Building Materials7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. Building Materials
9. Retail Store9. Retail Building Supply
10. Retail Building Supply10. Furn/Home Furnishings
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Biotechnology50. Biotechnology
51. Air Transport51. Medical Supplies
52. Insurance (Diversified)52. Air Transport
53. Human Resources53. Healthcare Information
54. Healthcare Information54. Human Resources
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Chemical (Diversified)
57. Medical Services57. Medical Services
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Saturday Supplement 4/13/24. Invest for Two-Comma Wealth Available Now.

Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

I released a new stock market book titled, Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (#Ad). It's available from Amazon.com at the link.

Invest for Two-Comma Wealth ($1,000,000) is an entry-level yet comprehensive book about investing in the securities markets to grow your net worth. From annuities, bonds, and CDs, to common stocks, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency, the book explains each topic in an easy-to-understand manner.

It teaches you about scams, and how to avoid them, including those “free” lunch seminars that try to sell you something, either immediately or months later. It explains why owning your home may not be a good investment and buying gold coins with huge sales charges put you at a disadvantage.

Follow Susan as she does everything right and Basketcase Bob who serves as an example of what not to do.

If knowledge is the way to wealth, then this book is for you. Use the information in this book to invest for the long term and discover that one day you’ve joined the two-comma club.

Price $20, soft cover, print only, 300+ pages.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (#Ad)

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Friday 4/12/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 172 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AES, AFL, ALRM, AEO, AEP, AFG, APA, AAPL, ADM, AIZ, AGO, ATO, AVA, AZTA, BECN, BIG, BKH, BFH, BBW, BG, CBT, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CNX, CMCO, ED, CONN, COTY, CCRN, CW, DHR, DDS, DFS, DTE, EBAY, ECL, EFX, EL, EVRG, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FE, FLS, FWRD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, GES, HE, HELE, HP, HSIC, HD, HWM, HUBG, HUM, IDA, INFN, IIIN, INTU, IRM, JAZZ, K, KELYA, KEYS, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LH, LEG, LNC, LMT, L, LXU, MAN, MA, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MCO, MLI, NJR, NTNX, OGE, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PNW, POR, PPL, PFG, PGR, RGS, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SPSC, TPR, TPX, RIG, TZOO, TWLO, UIS, UNM, VFC, MDRX, WRB, WSO, WERN, WSM, WSC, WOLF, WDAY, IHE, IDU, DDM, FDN, ICF, IHF, IAT, ILF, IYF, EWA, EWZ, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EPP, XLV, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFHorn top      03/04/202403/18/2024Apparel
AAFlag      04/04/202404/11/2024Aerospace/Defense
AIZPipe top      03/25/202404/01/2024Insurance (Diversified)
BMYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/13/202403/28/2024Drug
CFDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/20/202404/04/2024Chemical (Basic)
CONNTriple bottom      03/15/202404/11/2024Retail (Special Lines)
^DJTHead-and-shoulders top      03/22/202404/04/2024None
BOOMTriple top      03/20/202404/04/2024Metal Fabricating
FTVTriple top      02/28/202403/22/2024Industrial Services
GPNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/15/202403/13/2024Computer Software and Svcs
GLDead-cat bounce      04/11/202404/11/2024Insurance (Life)
GSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/28/202404/04/2024Securities Brokerage
ITWHead-and-shoulders top      03/18/202403/28/2024Metal Fabricating
IIINDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/21/202404/01/2024Building Materials
KSSPipe top      03/25/202404/01/2024Retail Store
MHOPipe top      03/25/202404/01/2024Homebuilding
MASTriple top      03/21/202404/04/2024Building Materials
MDTPipe top      03/25/202404/01/2024Medical Supplies
NBRTriple top      03/15/202404/03/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NUSBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/29/202404/09/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
PATKPipe top      02/26/202403/04/2024Retail Building Supply
KWRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/21/202403/28/2024Chemical (Specialty)
RLITriple top      02/28/202403/28/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RCKYBroadening bottom      03/01/202403/28/2024Shoe
SEEHorn top      02/26/202403/11/2024Packaging and Container
SKXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/01/202403/14/2024Shoe
SRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/05/202403/28/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
TXNTriangle, symmetrical      03/07/202404/11/2024Semiconductor
TGPennant      04/01/202404/11/2024Chemical (Specialty)
WOLFPipe bottom      02/20/202402/26/2024Semiconductor
IGVTriangle, descending      03/15/202404/11/2024Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 4/11/24. Bitcoin Review

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.8% or -136.28 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 272 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 136 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 136 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 274/486 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin on the daily scale.

The cryptocurrency has made a strong push higher since the January low but is it running out of steam?

I don't think so. It's paused here and formed a chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. I show that in red on the chart.

In stocks, symmetricals breakout upward 60% of the time. We see that here, when the currency closed above the top red line. Unfortunately, the breakout didn't hold and the currency returned to do more work in the triangle.

Given the strong push upward since January, I think we'll see the uptrend continue. That's just a guess. Symmetricals can be treacherous.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 173 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ABM, ACN, AEIS, AES, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALRM, AEO, AFG, AMGN, APOG, AIZ, ADSK, AXS, AZTA, BSET, BZH, BMY, BLDR, CAL, CENX, CF, CIEN, CNO, CMCO, GLW, CSGP, CCRN, CSGS, DECK, DDS, DFS, DTE, BOOM, ECL, EL, EXPI, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FARO, FDX, GFS, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HNI, DHI, HWM, HUN, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPI, IRM, JKHY, KBH, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LH, LAMR, LANC, LEN, LLY, LNC, MHO, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, NWL, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, ASGN, OTEX, PATK, PETS, PFG, PG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, RJF, REGN, ROG, ROP, R, SAIC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, SKX, LUV, SNPS, TPR, TDY, TPX, TDC, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMI, MDRX, WEX, WSC, WWW, WDAY, IYC, IYE, IHE, DDM, FTEC, IYH, IEV, IGV, IXC, ITB, EWO, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWL, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLV, XHB, XRT, XAR, XLK, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,514.39    
 Weekly S2  15,791.77  277.38   
 Monthly S1  15,842.37  50.61   
 Weekly S1  15,981.06  138.69   
 Daily S2  16,046.14  65.08   
 Low  16,092.02  45.88   
 Open  16,104.01  11.99   
 Daily S1  16,108.25  4.24   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,133.27  25.02   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,146.01  12.74   
 Daily Pivot  16,154.13  8.12   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,158.76  4.63   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,170.36  11.60   
 Monthly Pivot  16,190.62  20.26   
 High  16,200.01  9.39   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  16,216.24  16.23   
 Weekly Pivot  16,235.86  19.62   
 Daily R2  16,262.12  26.26   
 Weekly R1  16,425.15  163.03   
 Monthly R1  16,518.60  93.45   
 Weekly R2  16,679.95  161.34   
 Monthly R2  16,866.85  186.90   

Wednesday 4/10/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned neutral after being bearish, as the chart shows.

The switch from bearish to neutral could be a signal that the big retrace I've been expecting isn't happening yet.

I'm looking for the uptrend to flip the neutral bars to bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 21% on 03/28/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 11% on 03/28/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

I've decided not to include this portion of the post in the future. Why? Because the indicators on this chart just followed what the index is doing. They don't add value. If you disagree, then write me and convince me and I'll consider giving it a stay of execution.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, AFL, AEO, AFG, ANIK, APOG, ANET, ASH, AIZ, BIG, BKNG, BCO, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CX, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CNO, CL, CMCO, CONN, GLW, CROX, DECK, DDS, DUK, EXC, EZPW, FICO, FDX, FE, FISV, FCX, FRD, IT, GNW, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HOV, HUN, ITGR, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LDOS, LLY, LNC, LMT, LPLA, MANH, MAN, MRO, MLM, MTDR, MDT, MRK, MLKN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, OMCL, ORCL, PAYX, PCTY, PETS, PFG, RMBS, RJF, RGA, RNG, SIGI, NOW, SLGN, SCCO, SNPS, TPR, TRGP, TEVA, TMO, RIG, TZOO, TG, TREX, UNM, VECO, WSC, ZBRA, IHE, DDM, ICF, ILF, IEO, IYF, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, THD, PXJ, XLF, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Tuesday 4/9/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by 0.0% or -11.24 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1373 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 743 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 630 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 284/517 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/113 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring descending broadening wedges.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, A, AKAM, ALB, AEO, AEL, AXP, AIG, ASH, AZTA, BLDR, CACI, CENX, CDAY, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CLX, GLW, CSGS, DDS, EVRG, EXC, EZPW, FDX, FLEX, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GNW, GFF, THG, HL, HP, HUBG, HUN, IDXX, INTC, IPI, KELYA, KMT, LHX, LDOS, RAMP, LMT, L, MGY, MANH, MAN, MRO, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, NFG, NTGR, NEU, OLN, OTEX, ORCL, PTEN, PNW, PXD, QCOM, DGX, RL, RTX, RGS, ROST, SAND, SLB, STR, SKYW, LUV, SR, SCS, TDY, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, RIG, TZOO, TG, VMI, VRTX, VC, WPM, WSC, ZBRA, IAI, FXI, IEV, MXI, ILF, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWS, EWD, EWT, PXJ. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,648.67    
 Weekly S2  37,833.49  184.82   
 Monthly S1  38,270.74  437.25   
 Weekly S1  38,363.15  92.41   
 Daily S2  38,765.73  402.59   
 Daily S1  38,829.27  63.53   
 Low  38,857.70  28.43   
 Close  38,892.80  35.10   
 Open  38,916.40  23.60   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,917.10  0.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  38,921.23  4.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,935.45  14.21   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,953.80  18.35   
 Daily R1  38,984.77  30.96   
 High  39,013.20  28.43   
 Daily R2  39,076.73  63.54   
 Monthly Pivot  39,079.89  3.16   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly Pivot  39,089.07  9.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  39,618.73  529.65   
 Monthly R1  39,701.96  83.23   
 Weekly R2  40,344.65  642.70   
 Monthly R2  40,511.11  166.46   

Monday 4/8/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Not a lot is happening today in the Dow industrials, which I show on the daily scale.

A double top appears at AB, confirmed as a valid chart when the index closes below the lowest valley between the two peaks.

That happens, I think, on the bar before C.

The index has dropped to the brown line, a line of support. I drew that from today (Friday) to the left, so see how it lines up with prior price action.

Below that is a more substantial support, shown by the green lines (and cleverly labeled 'Support?'), setup by a sideways move in the index during December 2023/January 2024.

If we have a serious retrace, I would expect the index to touch the green area and rebound upward.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 240.52 points.
Tuesday: Down 396.61 points.
Wednesday: Down 43.1 points.
Thursday: Down 530.16 points.
Friday: Up 307.06 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 903.33 points or 2.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 130.94 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 50.01 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 39,889.05 on 03/21/2024.
     4.8% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 16,538.86 on 03/21/2024.
     12.2% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     1.1% down from the high of 5,264.85 on 03/28/2024.
     11.2% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,411  38,657  38,849  39,095  39,287 
Weekly  37,837  38,371  39,093  39,626  40,348 
Monthly  37,652  38,278  39,084  39,709  40,515 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,130  5,167  5,195  5,232  5,260 
Weekly  5,087  5,146  5,205  5,264  5,323 
Monthly  4,967  5,086  5,175  5,294  5,383 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,972  16,111  16,219  16,357  16,465 
Weekly  15,818  16,033  16,262  16,477  16,706 
Monthly  15,540  15,894  16,217  16,571  16,893 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 8 days.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, A, AKAM, ALK, AMZN, ARCB, ADM, AZTA, BMI, BALL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BIIB, BOOT, BFH, BMY, CACI, CALM, CX, CDAY, CHD, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CXW, CSGS, EIX, EQT, FDX, FNV, GD, GPN, GFS, GPRO, HL, HP, HUBG, HUM, HUN, ILMN, INTC, IPI, KALU, LLY, LPLA, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MOS, NFG, NTGR, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PINC, PFG, PG, PRU, DGX, RTX, RGS, RCKY, ROST, SCI, NOW, LUV, SWX, SWN, SPSC, SCS, TPR, TPX, RIG, TZOO, UHAL, UGI, VECO, VRTX, VC, WLK, WOLF, WWD, WDAY, XEL, IYK, IHE, BOTZ, SLV, EWG, THD, TUR, ROBO, XLV. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor
4. Apparel4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Semiconductor5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Cement and Aggregates6. Homebuilding
7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Building Materials8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Retail Building Supply9. Building Materials
10. Furn/Home Furnishings10. Retail Building Supply
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Biotechnology50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Medical Supplies51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Air Transport52. Food Processing
53. Healthcare Information53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Human Resources54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Medical Services
56. Chemical (Diversified)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Medical Services57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Friday 4/5/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 268 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, AMD, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, ALL, AEO, AXP, AME, AMAT, ANET, ARW, ASH, AVY, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BCO, BMY, BRKR, CBT, CX, COR, CNC, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CAG, CONN, GLW, CSGP, CTS, ^DJT, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EBAY, ELV, EME, EMR, EFX, EQT, EL, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIVN, FTV, FNV, IT, GPN, GFS, GS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, THG, HIG, HL, HOV, JBHT, HUN, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, PODD, INTC, JKHY, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KLAC, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LDOS, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, META, MSFT, MS, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NEE, NWPX, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OR, OMI, PDCO, PCTY, PEN, PFE, PPG, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, PEG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RJF, RGA, RNG, ROK, ROL, ROP, RES, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAND, SEIC, SRE, SHW, SHOP, SO, SWX, SWN, SR, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TDY, TXN, TTD, TMO, TKR, TOL, TDG, RIG, TZOO, UHAL, UPS, UNM, VEEV, VRTX, VC, VMC, WAT, WSO, WEX, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IHF, IYZ, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, ILF, SOXX, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWT, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XLK, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Electric Utility (East)
ADouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/08/202403/21/2024Precision Instrument
ALRMThree Falling Peaks      02/29/202403/21/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ALBUgly double bottom      03/05/202403/15/2024Chemical (Diversified)
ALGTPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Air Transport
ARPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
ARCBPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ARWUgly double bottom      02/13/202403/19/2024Electronics
ASHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      03/07/202404/04/2024Chemical (Basic)
ADSKDiamond top      02/09/202403/21/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ADPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/22/202403/28/2024IT Services
BBWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/15/202404/01/2024Retail (Special Lines)
CLSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/11/202403/19/2024Electronics
CRLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/08/202403/22/2024Biotechnology
CSCOTriple top      03/12/202404/01/2024Computers and Peripherals
CNATriangle, ascending      02/28/202403/22/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DECKTriple top      03/14/202404/01/2024Shoe
^DJIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/21/202403/28/2024None
DOVHead-and-shoulders top      03/13/202403/28/2024Machinery
EQTPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXPDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/07/202403/22/2024Air Transport
FDXCup with handle      12/18/202303/22/2024Air Transport
GMEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/06/202403/26/2024Retail (Special Lines)
GILDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      02/16/202402/29/2024Biotechnology
GGGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/14/202403/21/2024Machinery
HBIBroadening top      03/08/202404/04/2024Apparel
HQYTriple top      02/27/202404/02/2024Healthcare Information
HSYDiamond top      03/11/202404/03/2024Food Processing
PODDTriangle, symmetrical      02/22/202404/04/2024Medical Supplies
INTCHead-and-shoulders complex top      02/15/202404/01/2024Semiconductor
IBKRScallop, ascending      03/04/202404/03/2024Securities Brokerage
IPGFalling wedge      03/18/202404/04/2024Advertising
IPIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      03/14/202403/22/2024Chemical (Diversified)
IRMTriangle, symmetrical      03/08/202404/04/2024Industrial Services
JBLUTriangle, ascending      02/14/202404/04/2024Air Transport
KSSPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Retail Store
MLMRectangle top      03/04/202404/04/2024Cement and Aggregates
MTRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/21/202403/27/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDTTriple bottom      03/01/202403/25/2024Medical Supplies
MLKNDead-cat bounce      03/28/202403/28/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
MSCup with handle      01/02/202404/04/2024Securities Brokerage
MYGNTriple top      02/15/202403/06/2024Biotechnology
NFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
OGETriangle, ascending      02/21/202403/26/2024Electric Utility (Central)
OMCLHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      02/09/202403/20/2024Healthcare Information
PDCODouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/12/202403/28/2024Medical Supplies
PENHead-and-shoulders top      01/16/202403/06/2024Medical Supplies
PLXSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/18/202403/26/2024Electronics
PINCTriple bottom      02/08/202403/15/2024Healthcare Information
PGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/13/202403/28/2024Household Products
DGXTriple bottom      02/01/202403/01/2024Medical Services
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/23/202403/21/2024Apparel
RRCUgly double bottom      02/07/202403/14/2024Petroleum (Producing)
RNGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/12/202403/21/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ROKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/21/202403/28/2024Diversified Co.
ROSTHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/11/202306/01/2023Retail (Special Lines)
RGLDUgly double bottom      02/28/202403/20/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
RESPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RPipe bottom      02/12/202402/20/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
^GSPCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/21/202403/28/2024None
SBHBig M      01/02/202402/15/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
SCHWCup with handle      12/15/202304/04/2024Securities Brokerage
SEEThree Falling Peaks      02/27/202403/28/2024Packaging and Container
NOWTriangle, symmetrical      03/05/202404/04/2024IT Services
SHWTriple top      03/08/202403/28/2024Chemical (Basic)
SODouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/16/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (East)
SXIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/25/202404/01/2024Diversified Co.
SUMPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Cement and Aggregates
TPRBroadening wedge, descending      02/23/202404/01/2024Apparel
TDOCTriangle, symmetrical      03/05/202403/28/2024Healthcare Information
TTDPipe bottom      03/11/202403/18/2024Advertising
UPSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/13/202403/22/2024Air Transport
WMTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/12/202403/21/2024Retail Store
WPMUgly double bottom      02/26/202403/20/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
XELUgly double bottom      03/06/202403/26/2024Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 4/4/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.2% or 37.01 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 720 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 417 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 303 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 274/485 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index found support at the red line, mostly during Wednesday's trading activity (that is, a week ago). The index gapped around that support at A, forming a large hole on the chart.

The gap filled quickly (on 4/3) and hit resistance at the green line. From there, it plunged and recovered slightly.

To me, this suggests the index is going to struggle to rise. I'd guess another down day on Thursday before trying to push through resistance going up to 16,500, probably having trouble piercing 16,400.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 170 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, AYI, AMD, AKAM, ALK, AA, DOX, AEL, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, AWI, ADSK, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BZH, BBY, BIG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CPB, CX, CNP, CNX, COST, COTY, CROX, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DVN, FANG, DDS, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, WIRE, EOG, EL, EG, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, GPS, GNW, GPN, GFS, GFF, HLIT, HL, HELE, HP, HD, HOV, HUBG, IDA, ILMN, IBP, INTC, ISRG, JNJ, KFRC, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MHO, MTSI, M, MGY, MAN, MLM, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, NWL, NEE, JWN, ORI, PANW, PTEN, PEN, PCG, PPL, PG, PRU, PEG, PSTG, QTWO, RHI, RCKY, ROST, RES, SAND, SMG, SRE, SMTC, SHOP, SKX, SKYW, SO, LUV, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TRGP, TPX, TER, TOL, TDG, RIG, TZOO, UGI, UNH, VFC, VLO, VECO, V, WERN, WLK, WSM, WOLF, WWW, IYK, IYE, IEZ, BOTZ, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XRT, UNG, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,550.09    
 Monthly S1  15,913.77  363.69   
 Daily S2  16,091.07  177.30   
 Weekly S2  16,149.13  58.05   
 Low  16,169.31  20.18   
 Open  16,178.80  9.49   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  16,184.27  5.47   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly S1  16,213.29  29.03   
 Monthly Pivot  16,226.32  13.02   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,234.80  8.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,255.03  20.23   
 Daily Pivot  16,262.50  7.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,275.25  12.75   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,277.46  2.21   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  16,340.74  63.28   
 Weekly Pivot  16,343.34  2.60   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  16,355.70  12.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  16,407.50  51.81   
 Daily R2  16,433.93  26.43   
 Weekly R2  16,537.55  103.61   
 Monthly R1  16,590.00  52.46   
 Monthly R2  16,902.55  312.54   

Wednesday 4/3/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is 10.3, which is bearish, hence the vertical red line on the far right of the chart.

As you can see, the index has been climbing since the November low without a significant retrace (like 30%). It did move sideways in late December to January (circled), so my guess is that's where the retrace will rebound (find support).

However, we first have to see the index make a meaningful drop. This could be the start of the retrace but I've been fooled before, so we'll have to wait and see.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 21% on 03/28/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 11% on 03/28/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

I show green lines to illustrate the trend from November as I mentioned in the discussion of the prior chart.

According to this chart, there's nothing to worry about. The trend is still upward even if today (Tuesday) was a down day.

The prior chart is bearish and this is bullish. Go figure. Because signals on the CPI chart can change for up to a week, let's pretend the trend remains up for another week and then reevaluate.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, AYI, A, ALRM, AA, AEL, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, AR, AON, AAPL, AGO, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BFH, BBW, CDNS, CPB, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CNX, CMCO, CONN, COST, COTY, CRH, DHR, DECK, XRAY, EFX, EL, EG, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FDX, FE, FLEX, FNV, GE, GPN, GGG, GFF, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HOV, HURC, IIIN, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KFRC, LZB, LAMR, LEG, M, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTDR, MRCY, MS, MLI, NJR, NWL, NEE, NI, NOVT, NTNX, OMCL, ON, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PEN, PETS, PPL, PINC, PG, RNG, RHI, RCKY, ROP, CRM, SAND, SEE, SCI, STR, SKX, SWX, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TDY, TPX, TXT, TMO, TZOO, TG, TREX, VEEV, VRTX, WDAY, XEL, ITB, IHE, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IEV, IGV, IXC, IXN, SLV, IYF, IHI, EWK, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWP, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PHO, ROBO, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLK, SMH, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Tuesday 4/2/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.6% or -240.52 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 701 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 363 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 338 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 284/516 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/113 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring bump-and-run reversal top.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 225 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AMD, AES, ATSG, ALGT, AEO, AEP, AEL, AMWD, AR, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BMI, BCPC, BIG, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BG, CALM, CAL, CPB, CLS, CRL, CHD, CI, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNX, CMCO, CONN, CSGP, CRH, CCRN, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EME, EFX, EQT, EL, EVRG, EVH, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FARO, FDX, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTV, FNV, FCX, FDP, GD, GNW, GFF, THG, HLIT, HTLD, HL, HSII, HOV, HUBG, HUM, ILMN, INCY, NSP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LAMR, LEG, MANH, MAN, MRO, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MDC, MSFT, MS, MLI, MUR, NWL, NEE, NI, OMCL, ASGN, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PCTY, PYPL, PEN, PETS, PXD, PINC, PSTG, QTWO, RTX, RGS, RGA, ROP, ^GSPC, SAND, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SLGN, SMAR, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TECH, TDY, TPX, TDC, TTD, TDG, RIG, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, V, WSC, WOLF, WWW, IYK, IYC, ITB, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IEV, ILF, IYF, IHI, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, PPA, PHO, ROBO, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLB, XAR, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,873.36    
 Monthly S1  38,720.10  846.75   
 Weekly S2  38,979.48  259.38   
 Weekly S1  39,273.16  293.69   
 Daily S2  39,300.58  27.41   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  39,304.58  4.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  39,433.71  129.14   
 Low  39,491.22  57.50   
 Close  39,566.85  75.63   
 Weekly Pivot  39,570.88  4.02   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,614.90  44.03   
 Daily Pivot  39,624.36  9.45   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,653.11  28.75   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,691.32  38.21   
 Daily R1  39,757.49  66.18   
 Open  39,807.93  50.44   
 High  39,815.00  7.07   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  39,864.56  49.56   
 Daily R2  39,948.14  83.57   
 Monthly R1  40,151.32  203.19   
 Weekly R2  40,162.28  10.95   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  40,735.80  573.52   

Monday 4/1/24. April Market Forecast Update

Forecast

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 75.66 points.
Tuesday: Up 320.33 points.
Wednesday: Up 401.37 points.
Thursday: Up 269.24 points.
Friday: Down 305.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1092.6 points or 2.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 406.29 points or 2.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 137.26 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 39,889.05 on 03/21/2024.
     7.2% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 16,538.86 on 03/21/2024.
     13.1% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 5,264.85 on 03/28/2024.
     12.2% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,646  39,727  39,798  39,878  39,949 
Weekly  38,357  39,082  39,486  40,211  40,614 
Monthly  37,795  38,801  39,345  40,351  40,895 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,236  5,245  5,255  5,264  5,274 
Weekly  5,086  5,170  5,216  5,300  5,345 
Monthly  4,839  5,047  5,154  5,362  5,469 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,309  16,344  16,383  16,418  16,456 
Weekly  15,703  16,041  16,290  16,628  16,877 
Monthly  15,036  15,708  16,123  16,795  17,211 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, A, ALK, ALGT, AMED, AEL, ANIK, AR, APA, ARCB, ARW, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BA, BAH, BRC, BCO, CPB, CLS, COR, CLF, CNA, CNX, CAG, CONN, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, EIX, EOG, EQT, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FIS, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GME, IT, GIS, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HP, HOV, ILMN, IPI, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LZB, LEG, LEN, L, MHO, MRO, MDC, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEU, NEE, NI, NOC, NUS, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PFE, PCG, PXD, PPL, PFG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RGS, ROP, R, SAND, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TTD, TDG, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UIS, VFC, WRB, WPM, WSC, WOLF, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IAT, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWW, EWD, EWL, EWU, IBB, PXJ, GLD, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Semiconductor3. Semiconductor
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Homebuilding6. Homebuilding
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Building Materials9. Building Materials
10. Retail Building Supply10. Retail Building Supply
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Petroleum (Integrated)
52. Food Processing52. Food Processing
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Medical Services55. Medical Services
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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