Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22

November 2022 Headlines

Archives


Monday 11/28/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, we see what I call an ugly double bottom. That pattern occurs when the right bottom is at least 5% above the left one. However, when we're talking about an index, I don't use the 5% rule.

The double bottom confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms, shown here by a horizontal red line at C.

A throwback happens at D which brings the index back to the breakout price before it resumes its upward move.

At E, and the green line, I show overhead resistance setup by what looks like a tight knot of resistance. We'll have to see if the index turns lower or stalls there.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 45.41 points.
Tuesday: Up 397.82 points.
Wednesday: Up 95.96 points.
Friday: Up 152.97 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 601.34 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 80.3 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 60.78 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.1% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     19.8% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     29.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     11.3% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     16.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     15.3% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,124  34,236  34,311  34,423  34,498 
Weekly  33,270  33,809  34,098  34,636  34,925 
Monthly  28,800  31,573  32,980  35,754  37,160 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,014  4,020  4,027  4,033  4,040 
Weekly  3,897  3,962  3,998  4,062  4,099 
Monthly  3,516  3,771  3,903  4,158  4,289 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,176  11,201  11,231  11,256  11,287 
Weekly  10,836  11,031  11,171  11,366  11,506 
Monthly  9,764  10,495  10,994  11,725  12,224 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALB, DOX, AEE, APH, ATR, ATO, ADSK, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BG, CALM, CPB, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, EXC, FE, FISV, FMC, FWRD, FRD, IT, GIS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IPAR, ISRG, KBAL, LH, LRCX, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NOC, OGE, OXM, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RL, RMBS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, SO, SWX, SR, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TSCO, TZOO, VRTX, VMC, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ITA, IDU, IHF, EWK, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PJP, IXC, MXI, XLY, GLD, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Securities Brokerage2. Securities Brokerage
3. Metal Fabricating3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Machinery4. Metal Fabricating
5. Food Processing5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing6. Machinery
7. Retail Store7. Retail Store
8. Aerospace/Defense8. Food Processing
9. Biotechnology9. Petroleum (Integrated)
10. IT Services10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Investment Co. (Foreign)50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Semiconductor Cap Equip.51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Short ETFs52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electronics
56. Medical Supplies56. Medical Supplies
57. Electronics57. Chemical (Basic)
58. Chemical (Basic)58. Short ETFs
59. E-Commerce59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/25/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AJRD, AES, ALB, AMWD, ADM, ATO, ADSK, AXS, AZTA, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BFH, BMY, BG, CACI, CPB, CNP, CHS, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CGNX, CAG, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, ^DJT, EIX, EPAM, RE, FDS, FAST, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, GIS, GNW, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, IIIN, NVTA, KALU, KMB, LH, LRCX, RAMP, L, LOW, MCHX, MRTN, MU, MS, NBR, NTAP, NOC, OMCL, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PLXS, PFG, PGR, KWR, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SMG, SO, SWX, SCS, TGT, TDOC, TKR, TREX, VRTX, WRB, WLK, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, MXI, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag      11/15/202211/23/2022Electronics
ACNPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022IT Services
AMWDHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202211/04/2022Building Materials
ABCDiamond top      10/28/202211/17/2022Biotechnology
ANIKCup with handle      03/03/202211/10/2022Biotechnology
BSETUgly double bottom      10/07/202210/24/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
BAXPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Medical Supplies
BIGUgly double bottom      10/24/202211/09/2022Retail Store
BAPennant      11/11/202211/16/2022Aerospace/Defense
BLDRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Retail Building Supply
BGCup with handle      08/30/202211/08/2022Food Processing
CBTDiamond top      10/26/202211/21/2022Chemical (Diversified)
CALBroadening top      10/25/202211/23/2022Shoe
CPBPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Food Processing
CENXBig W      09/30/202210/12/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CFPipe bottom      09/19/202209/26/2022Chemical (Basic)
CHDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/10/202211/04/2022Household Products
CSCOUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Computers and Peripherals
CLNEPipe top      11/07/202211/14/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
CLXUgly double bottom      10/10/202211/03/2022Household Products
CAGPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Food Processing
GLWThree Rising Valleys      09/30/202210/25/2022Telecom. Equipment
CROXPipe bottom      10/24/202210/31/2022Shoe
CCRNPipe bottom      11/07/202211/14/2022Human Resources
DHRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Precision Instrument
BOOMDiamond top      10/31/202211/14/2022Metal Fabricating
EBAYFlag      11/14/202211/23/2022Internet
EQTPipe bottom      10/17/202210/24/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Electric Utility (East)
FMCTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202211/21/2022Chemical (Basic)
FORMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Semiconductor
FDPUgly double bottom      09/29/202210/20/2022Food Processing
GPSFlag, high and tight      09/30/202211/22/2022Apparel
GOOGLFlag      11/16/202211/22/2022Internet
HSCFlag, high and tight      09/30/202211/23/2022Diversified Co.
HTLDPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HONFlag      11/10/202211/21/2022Aerospace/Defense
JBHTCup with handle      08/16/202211/15/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCTriple bottom      09/01/202210/31/2022Machinery
IDXXCup with handle      08/08/202211/14/2022Drug
NSPTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/202211/17/2022Human Resources
KSSPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Retail Store
RAMPFlag      11/15/202211/23/2022Computer Software and Svcs
MRODouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/07/202211/14/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
MLIThree Rising Valleys      09/23/202211/03/2022Metal Fabricating
NFLXPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Internet
NJRUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
NKEPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Shoe
NIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (Central)
JWNPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Retail Store
OXYDiamond top      10/26/202211/16/2022Petroleum (Producing)
PFEUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/11/2022Drug
PPGPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Chemical (Diversified)
QCOMPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Telecom. Equipment
RCKYCup with handle      09/12/202211/11/2022Shoe
SEEPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Packaging and Container
SKXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/30/202210/27/2022Shoe
SWNRoof, inverted      10/05/202211/16/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
SRUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/07/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
TGTUgly double bottom      10/14/202211/09/2022Retail Store
TECHThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/01/2022Biotechnology
TFXTriangle, symmetrical      11/10/202211/22/2022Diversified Co.
RIGFlag, high and tight      09/23/202211/15/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VRSNRounding bottom      08/18/202210/28/2022Internet
VUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/09/2022Financial Services
WSOHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/23/202211/09/2022Retail Building Supply
WUPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Financial Services
WSMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/24/202211/03/2022Retail (Special Lines)
ZBRAFlag      11/14/202211/21/2022Computers and Peripherals
FDNBroadening wedge, descending      09/23/202211/15/2022Internet
IGVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202211/04/2022Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Wednesday 11/23/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a chart of a bullish pattern. Last week, we saw bearish divergence which has disappeared. The thin blue line (CPI line) is now coincident instead of divergent.

What does this mean? The threat of a drop in the index appears to be over (the index didn't drop much in the past week, regardless of bearish divergence). The index is rising again.

The blue line is at or approaching the top reading of 100. So it's bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 52%.
The fewest was 23% on 11/23/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 451 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line shows improvement, but the blue line is flat, compared to a week ago. The red line might encounter resistance but I don't know if that's meaningful because we're looking at the measure of stocks in bear market territory. Does such a measure have support and resistance zones? The chart suggests that yes, it does, based on prior peaks and valleys.

You can say the same for the blue line, showing support and resistance.

Combining the two charts, the CPI one is bullish. This chart is also bullish but hints of overhead resistance. If you're an Elliott waver, the CPI chart shows a motive wave where you see 5 steps (3 higher and 2 lower, 5 total) and we're in step 4 or maybe turning higher to step 5, the last stage before an ABC correction.

I don't claim to be a waver, so it's hard for me to judge, but my guess is the index is going to rise in the coming week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 192 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AJRD, AES, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AIG, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BG, CPB, CE, CNP, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CLR, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EIX, ELV, EMR, EQT, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FE, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GE, GIS, GS, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HNI, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ISRG, IVC, KALU, K, KMT, KBAL, KSS, LH, LRCX, LEG, RAMP, LOW, M, MAN, MLM, MDC, MRK, MU, MS, NFG, NTGR, JWN, NOC, OXM, PYPL, PCG, PNW, PPL, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RGS, RGA, RCKY, SAIA, SCHW, SMG, SRE, SLGN, SWX, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TER, TXN, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, VLO, WRB, WLK, WSM, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IHE, IDU, FXI, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWY, EWP, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, MXI, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/22/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -45.41 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1371 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 715 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 656 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 253/455 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/103 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teleflex 2 (TFX) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AKAM, ALRM, AYX, AMZN, AAPL, ADM, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BAX, BG, CDNS, CNP, CHS, CSCO, CLX, CTSH, CLR, XRAY, DTE, BOOM, EIX, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FE, FIVN, FTNT, GPS, GD, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, THG, HTLD, HELE, HUBG, INTU, KSS, LZB, LH, RAMP, L, MANH, MDT, MU, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NEU, NEE, JWN, NWPX, OXY, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PANW, PYPL, PCG, PPG, PG, QCOM, RNG, RCKY, CRM, SEE, SHW, TDC, TXT, TJX, TREX, SLCA, WU, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, DDM, FDN, QTEC, QQQ, IGV, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWY, THD, QLD, PPA, XLY, GLD, XLI, UNG, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,061.12    
 Monthly S1  30,880.70  2,819.58   
 Monthly Pivot  32,433.88  1,553.18   
 Weekly S2  32,895.05  461.17   
 Weekly S1  33,297.67  402.61   
 Daily S2  33,402.61  104.94   
 Daily S1  33,551.45  148.84   
 Low  33,559.18  7.73   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  33,642.36  83.18   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,675.85  33.48   
 Close  33,700.28  24.43   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  33,708.02  7.73   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,711.89  3.87   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,747.92  36.04   
 Open  33,760.30  12.38   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  33,856.85  96.55   
 High  33,864.59  7.74   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  34,013.43  148.84   
 Weekly R1  34,044.98  31.55   
 Weekly R2  34,389.67  344.70   
 Monthly R1  35,253.46  863.79   
 Monthly R2  36,806.64  1,553.18   

Monday 11/21/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

There's not a lot to discuss on this chart. It shows an index struggling to find direction with a hint of an upward move, but no conviction yet.

Outlined in red is a broadening bottom chart pattern. That pattern has price making higher highs and lower lows so that two trends form, one moving higher and one moving lower, shown by their respective red lines.

At AB is what I call a ugly double bottom. That's when the second bottom is well above the first one. In stocks, I require (or suggest) the second bottom be at least 5% above the first one. With an index, such a large rise is unusual, so I don't require it.

The chart pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes above C, the highest peak between the two bottoms. It suggests an upward move in the index. What we're seeing now is a minor retrace.

That retrace may end with the index resuming the upward run or it could grow into a trend change. Given that the trend since point A is upward, it suggests this is just a normal retrace before an upward move and not a trend change from up to down.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 211.16 points.
Tuesday: Up 56.22 points.
Wednesday: Down 39.09 points.
Thursday: Down 7.51 points.
Friday: Up 199.37 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 2.17 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 177.27 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 27.59 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.7% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     17.7% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     29.7% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     10.5% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     17.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     13.6% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,417  33,582  33,705  33,869  33,992 
Weekly  32,910  33,328  33,658  34,075  34,405 
Monthly  28,076  30,911  32,449  35,284  36,822 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,916  3,941  3,960  3,985  4,004 
Weekly  3,845  3,905  3,967  4,027  4,089 
Monthly  3,409  3,687  3,858  4,136  4,307 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,955  11,050  11,155  11,251  11,355 
Weekly  10,729  10,937  11,215  11,424  11,701 
Monthly  9,738  10,442  10,967  11,671  12,197 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, AKAM, ALB, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AEP, ABC, AON, AAPL, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, AZTA, BSET, BAX, BKNG, BMY, BG, CAL, CNP, CHS, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CTSH, ED, CONN, CR, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, DDS, ^DJU, BOOM, EMR, EPAM, RE, EVH, FICO, FIVN, FTNT, GPS, GD, GIS, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, GES, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HELE, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, IIIN, INTU, IVC, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LH, RAMP, L, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, MU, MS, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NI, JWN, OGE, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PPL, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RGS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, CRM, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SLGN, SO, SSYS, TECH, TDC, TXT, TZOO, TREX, VRSN, VRTX, WMT, WAT, WU, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, FDN, QTEC, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IGV, SLV, EWK, THD, EWU, QLD, PPA, XLY, XLP, XRT, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Securities Brokerage2. Securities Brokerage
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Metal Fabricating4. Metal Fabricating
5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment5. Shoe
6. Machinery6. Machinery
7. Retail Store7. Petroleum (Producing)
8. Food Processing8. Chemical (Diversified)
9. Petroleum (Integrated)9. Biotechnology
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Investment Co. (Foreign)51. Air Transport
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Packaging and Container
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Chemical (Basic)
55. Electronics55. Electronics
56. Medical Supplies56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Chemical (Basic)57. Household Products
58. Short ETFs58. E-Commerce
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Short ETFs
60. E-Commerce60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/18/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEL, AFG, AMGN, AAPL, ARCB, ADSK, AVNT, BAX, BBBY, BIIB, BMRN, BFH, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, CE, CENX, CHS, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CTSH, CMTL, XRAY, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, EMN, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FIS, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GPN, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HOV, HUBG, IDXX, INCY, IBP, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JNJ, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LH, RAMP, L, LXU, M, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MU, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NFLX, NWL, NKE, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PKE, PYPL, PFG, PGR, QCOM, RL, RNG, RHI, ROK, RCKY, CRM, SAIC, SMG, SEE, TDOC, TDC, TZOO, TREX, UNM, VLO, WU, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IHE, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, QQQ, IGV, IHI, EWK, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, ILF, XLY, XLB, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDTriple bottom      09/23/202211/08/2022Electronics
ACNUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022IT Services
AMWDHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202211/04/2022Building Materials
ABCDiamond top      10/28/202211/17/2022Biotechnology
ANIKCup with handle      03/03/202211/10/2022Biotechnology
BLDRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Retail Building Supply
BGCup with handle      08/30/202211/08/2022Food Processing
CFPipe bottom      09/19/202209/26/2022Chemical (Basic)
CSCOUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Computers and Peripherals
GLWThree Rising Valleys      09/30/202210/25/2022Telecom. Equipment
CROXPipe bottom      10/24/202210/31/2022Shoe
DHRHorn bottom      10/17/202210/31/2022Precision Instrument
BOOMDiamond top      10/31/202211/14/2022Metal Fabricating
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Electric Utility (East)
FDPUgly double bottom      09/29/202210/20/2022Food Processing
GOOGLPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Internet
HTLDPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTCup with handle      08/16/202211/15/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IDXXCup with handle      08/08/202211/14/2022Drug
NSPTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/202211/17/2022Human Resources
MLIThree Rising Valleys      09/23/202211/03/2022Metal Fabricating
^IXICPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022None
NFLXPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Internet
NKEPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Shoe
OXYDiamond top      10/26/202211/16/2022Petroleum (Producing)
PFEUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/11/2022Drug
PPGPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Chemical (Diversified)
RCKYCup with handle      09/12/202211/11/2022Shoe
SKXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/30/202210/27/2022Shoe
TGTUgly double bottom      10/14/202211/09/2022Retail Store
TECHThree Rising Valleys      10/13/202211/01/2022Biotechnology
RIGFlag, high and tight      09/23/202211/15/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VRSNRounding bottom      08/18/202210/28/2022Internet
VDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/03/202211/09/2022Financial Services
WSOHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/23/202211/09/2022Retail Building Supply
WSMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/24/202211/03/2022Retail (Special Lines)
FDNBroadening wedge, descending      09/23/202211/15/2022Internet
QTECPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Electronics
IGVPipe bottom      10/31/202211/07/2022Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 11/17/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

My data provider was giving me too many errors to update my database, so I'll do it in the morning. Instead, here's the chart of the Nasdaq on the 5 minute scale for the last 10 days.

The only thing remarkable about this chart is that the index is resting on support, which I show here as a horizontal red line.

My guess is that the index will tumble through the line and plummet, maybe down to the gap at 10,800, or perhaps even lower. That may take more than a day, though.

It's also possible that the index will rebound and zip upward, bouncing off support. I just get the feeling that the index is weak and we'll see it drop through support.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Wednesday 11/16/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew two brown trendlines connecting peaks and valleys to show bearish divergence. That happens when the index makes a higher peak and the indicator makes a lower peak.

The two trends diverge.

It suggests that the index is going to turn down, but divergence can linger for a long time (several months) before the turn-down actually happens.

Looking at the Dow industrials, we just had a minor retrace about 2 week ago, but we're stalling now at the price of the August high. It suggests a larger down turn is coming.

Having written that, you don't see that kind of overhead resistance on the S&P chart shown here. Yes, the retrace happened 2 weeks ago, but the index has been rising since.

So we might see the index claw its way to 4100 or maybe only 4050.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 52% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 58%.
The fewest was 22% on 11/16/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 451 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 27%.
The peak was 12% on 11/16/2021.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines show improvement from the snapshot taken a week ago. I suppose you can claim that the red line is approaching a prior peak (resistance). You can also say the same about the blue line, so maybe resistance is hiding in the bush.

The two charts, taken together, suggest the index will rise for a few more days before stalling. The Dow industrials suggests the downturn will happen sooner. For all I know, the index might find new life and continue higher in a robust fashion, but I discount that. Today the Dow had a 650 point high low range with price closing lower than it opened. Maybe it'll continue and signal a significant retrace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AKAM, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AFG, ABC, AMGN, AAPL, AIZ, ADSK, AVNT, AZTA, BAX, BERY, BIG, BG, CALM, CLS, CNC, CHS, CTSH, ED, CONN, COTY, CSGS, XRAY, DVN, EPAM, RE, EVRG, FIVN, FTNT, GPS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, THG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HELE, HOLX, HUBG, JBHT, INCY, IBP, INTU, NVTA, JAZZ, KELYA, KSS, LH, RAMP, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MTRN, MDC, MU, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFLX, NWL, NEU, JWN, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PG, KWR, QCOM, RGA, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SEE, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SKX, SRDX, TGT, TDC, TEVA, TJX, TRV, TREX, WRB, WMT, WU, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IHE, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, QQQ, ICF, IGV, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWT, THD, TUR, QLD, PPA, PJP, ILF, XLY, XRT, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/15/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.6% or -211.16 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 689 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 355 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 334 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 252/454 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/103 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teco Energy (TE) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 87 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, ADTN, AES, APD, ALL, DOX, AEE, AFG, AAPL, ASH, AGO, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BIO, BIIB, BMY, BLDR, BG, CHS, CNA, COST, CR, CROX, CSGS, CMI, DHR, D, EZPW, FFIV, FE, HLIT, HTLD, HL, HURC, IDA, ILMN, INCY, NSP, JKHY, JAZZ, K, LHX, LH, LANC, L, M, MAN, MRTN, MTRN, MS, MLI, NJR, NOC, OLN, PANW, PDCO, PFE, PLXS, RCKY, ROG, LUV, SRDX, TSCO, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VRSN, V, WRB, WERN, WMB, ITA, IHE, FXI, IYH, EWH, EWS, THD, TUR, PPA, PJP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  26,848.18    
 Monthly S1  30,192.44  3,344.26   
 Weekly S2  31,866.91  1,674.47   
 Monthly Pivot  32,005.20  138.29   
 Weekly S1  32,701.81  696.61   
 Daily S2  33,247.98  546.17   
 Weekly Pivot  33,259.88  11.90   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  33,392.34  132.46   
 Low  33,533.96  141.62   
 Close  33,536.70  2.74   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  33,662.05  125.35   
 Daily Pivot  33,678.32  16.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,698.35  20.03   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,749.13  50.78   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,799.91  50.78   
 Daily R1  33,822.68  22.77   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  33,964.30  141.62   
 Weekly R1  34,094.78  130.48   
 Daily R2  34,108.66  13.88   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  34,652.85  544.19   
 Monthly R1  35,349.46  696.61   
 Monthly R2  37,162.22  1,812.76   

Monday 11/14/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Chart pattern AB forms a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms. That means it closes above line C.

The move after confirmation was a nice one. It exceeded the price target (which is the height of the pattern added to the price of C).

Overhead, we see resistance setup by the prior peak. I show that peak with line D.

My view, and it's just a guess, is that the index will struggle to rise too much higher. It could continue to move up strongly because there's a measured move up (located almost midway between C and D). That pattern says the second leg should almost match the length of the first leg. See the link for details about what I'm talking about. If the pattern is correct, then we'll see a rise to oh, 36,500.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 423.78 points.
Tuesday: Up 333.83 points.
Wednesday: Down 646.89 points.
Thursday: Up 1201.43 points.
Friday: Up 32.49 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1344.64 points or 4.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 848.08 points or 8.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 222.38 points or 5.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.7% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     17.7% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     28.6% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     12.2% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     17.1% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     14.4% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,230  33,489  33,653  33,912  34,077 
Weekly  31,937  32,843  33,330  34,236  34,723 
Monthly  26,919  30,333  32,076  35,490  37,233 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,923  3,958  3,980  4,015  4,036 
Weekly  3,656  3,824  3,913  4,082  4,170 
Monthly  3,319  3,656  3,829  4,166  4,339 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,966  11,145  11,249  11,427  11,531 
Weekly  9,998  10,661  11,007  11,669  12,015 
Monthly  9,658  10,491  10,922  11,754  12,185 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 175 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, AEE, AFG, AON, APA, AAPL, ARCB, AGO, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BSET, BIO, BKNG, BMY, BLDR, BG, CACI, CALM, CE, CENX, CF, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CNA, CGNX, CL, GLW, COTY, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CW, DHR, DDS, ^DJT, D, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EL, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FE, FLS, FWRD, FCX, GIS, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HTLD, HP, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, NSP, NVTA, JKHY, KALU, K, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, LH, LANC, L, LXU, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MCO, MS, NBR, NOV, NCR, NJR, NKE, OLN, PKE, PFE, PLXS, PPG, KWR, RLI, RCKY, ROG, SLB, SEE, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SXI, TFX, TMO, TSCO, RIG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, WLK, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Petroleum (Integrated)
2. Securities Brokerage2. Securities Brokerage
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Metal Fabricating
4. Metal Fabricating4. Machinery
5. Shoe5. Petroleum (Producing)
6. Machinery6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
7. Petroleum (Producing)7. Food Processing
8. Chemical (Diversified)8. Insurance (Life)
9. Biotechnology9. Shoe
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Medical Supplies
51. Air Transport51. Air Transport
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Retail (Special Lines)
53. Packaging and Container53. Semiconductor
54. Chemical (Basic)54. Packaging and Container
55. Electronics55. Electronics
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Computers and Peripherals
57. Household Products57. Computer Software and Svcs
58. E-Commerce58. Chemical (Basic)
59. Short ETFs59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/11/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 370 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ACN, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AIG, APH, AON, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ARW, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BALL, BSET, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIO, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BMY, BBW, BLDR, BG, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, CLR, GLW, COST, COTY, CROX, CSGS, CW, DHR, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, D, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EVRG, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GS, GPRO, GGG, GES, THG, HLIT, HE, HELE, HP, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPG, IPI, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, KALU, KBH, K, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KLAC, KLIC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LEG, LEN, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MDT, META, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NEE, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OMI, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PCG, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PG, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RNG, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SR, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TJX, TOL, TSCO, TREX, UGI, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VC, VMC, WAT, WSO, WERN, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Diversified Co.
ABTHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/30/202211/03/2022Medical Supplies
ADTNPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022Telecom. Equipment
AKAMUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/04/2022E-Commerce
AEOHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/26/202211/03/2022Apparel
AELDead-cat bounce      11/08/202211/08/2022Insurance (Life)
AMWDUgly double bottom      10/20/202211/04/2022Building Materials
APHUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Electronics
ATOUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
BERYHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202211/03/2022Packaging and Container
BIOPipe bottom      10/24/202210/31/2022Medical Supplies
BMRNUgly double bottom      09/26/202210/11/2022Biotechnology
BKNGUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/02/2022Internet
BLDRTriangle, symmetrical      09/26/202211/09/2022Retail Building Supply
BGRounding bottom      08/29/202211/08/2022Food Processing
CEHorn bottom      09/26/202210/10/2022Chemical (Basic)
CNPUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (Central)
CINFUgly double bottom      09/26/202211/03/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMTLPipe bottom      10/17/202210/24/2022Telecom. Equipment
COSTUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Retail Store
COTYBig W      09/30/202210/24/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
CROXDiamond top      10/04/202210/26/2022Shoe
DHRBig W      10/21/202211/03/2022Precision Instrument
DECKDiamond top      10/18/202211/01/2022Shoe
DPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022Electric Utility (East)
DUKUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (East)
EFXUgly double bottom      10/21/202211/03/2022Information Services
EZPWCup with handle      08/16/202211/10/2022Financial Services
FICOUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022IT Services
HLITPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022Telecom. Equipment
HEUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (West)
HOLXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/23/202210/21/2022Medical Supplies
HOVPipe bottom      10/17/202210/24/2022Homebuilding
INTCUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Semiconductor
NVTAHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202211/09/2022Medical Services
JKHYHead-and-shoulders top      04/06/202210/28/2022IT Services
KBALUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
KLICUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LHHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/27/202210/27/2022Medical Services
LENUgly double bottom      10/21/202211/09/2022Homebuilding
LPipe top      10/24/202210/31/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
LOWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/21/202211/04/2022Retail Building Supply
MAUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Financial Services
NTAPUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Computers and Peripherals
NEEUgly double bottom      10/20/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (East)
PATKUgly double bottom      10/19/202211/03/2022Retail Building Supply
PDCOBroadening top      10/18/202211/07/2022Medical Supplies
PGUgly double bottom      10/10/202211/03/2022Household Products
PHMHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/27/202211/03/2022Homebuilding
KWRUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Chemical (Specialty)
^GSPCUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022None
SAIADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/21/202211/03/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SXIRounding bottom      08/16/202211/09/2022Diversified Co.
SUMUgly double bottom      10/11/202211/03/2022Cement and Aggregates
SNPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202211/04/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TPRUgly double bottom      09/30/202210/13/2022Apparel
TERUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/03/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TZOOHorn bottom      10/03/202210/17/2022Internet
VEEVHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/26/202211/03/2022Healthcare Information
WATDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/30/202210/13/2022Precision Instrument
WSOUgly double bottom      10/20/202211/09/2022Retail Building Supply
WLKPipe bottom      09/19/202209/26/2022Chemical (Basic)
WWWDead-cat bounce      11/09/202211/09/2022Shoe
XELUgly double bottom      10/13/202211/07/2022Electric Utility (West)
SOXXPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 11/10/22. Bitcoin Plummets!

The Nasdaq dropped by -2.5% or -263.02 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 47 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 25 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 22 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 53.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 246/436 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 68/140 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has melted down. Why? We'll explore that in a moment.

The chart shows an irregular shape, which I've outlined in red (A). The chart pattern this forms is called a descending scallop. Those breakout 78% downward and that's what we see here.

Now let's talk about the drop at B. It's a steep one but why did it happen?

The crypto currency world this year has struggled. A number of crypto firms (at least 4 by my count) have gone out of business recently. Layoffs in the industry have amounted to thousands. Worse, people who invested in cryptocurrency in those bankrupt firm are not protected by insurance from the FDIC or SIPC. The exchanges may have their own insurance, but if not, then you could lose your investment. People have been cashing in their holdings.

Yesterday, one of the biggest crypto exchanges, FTX faced a wave of investors withdrawing $6 billion of assets from the exchange. This caused a liquidity crisis (not enough cash to pay for the redemptions).

Binance (the largest crypto exchange) said they'd buy the FTX yesterday but changed their mind today after looking at the books.

This kind of turmoil has forced down cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin (down about 25% in 5 days). You can see how the coin has reacted to this news (B). Few want to own BTC any longer and are selling, hoping to cash out before their exchange goes belly up, too.

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Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, ADTN, AES, AFL, AKAM, DOX, AEO, AXP, AAPL, ASH, ADSK, AVY, BAX, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BA, BBW, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CALM, CHD, CIEN, CAG, CR, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DDS, D, WIRE, EZPW, FICO, FISV, FORM, GE, GES, HLIT, HSIC, HON, HOV, ILMN, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JNJ, K, LLY, RAMP, L, MHO, M, MDT, MRK, META, MLKN, MS, OXY, OTEX, OUT, PTEN, PNW, DGX, NOW, LUV, SXI, TDOC, TJX, TSCO, TRV, VRSN, VRTX, WWW, IYE, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FXI, IGE, EWO, EIS, EWY, EWP, PEJ, PXJ, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,415.87    
 Weekly S2  9,697.40  281.53   
 Monthly S1  9,884.53  187.13   
 Weekly S1  10,025.29  140.76   
 Daily S2  10,199.76  174.47   
 Daily S1  10,276.47  76.71   
 Low  10,344.01  67.54   
 Close  10,353.18  9.17   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  10,420.72  67.54   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,428.42  7.70   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,454.49  26.07   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,480.56  26.07   
 Daily R1  10,497.43  16.87   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  10,528.45  31.02   
 Monthly Pivot  10,557.48  29.03   
 High  10,564.97  7.49   Yes! The High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  10,590.82  25.85   
 Daily R2  10,641.68  50.86   
 Weekly R1  10,918.71  277.03   
 Monthly R1  11,026.14  107.43   
 Weekly R2  11,484.24  458.10   
 Monthly R2  11,699.09  214.85   

Wednesday 11/9/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI, shown here by the vertical green line on the far right of the chart, is solidly bullish. The CPI line, the thin blue one, appears to have lost strength from the peak in late October compared to where it is today.

It looks like the index could continue higher.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 58% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 57%.
The fewest was 21% on 11/12/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 451 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 27%.
The peak was 12% on 11/09/2021.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

When I looked at this chart, I noticed some divergence. Notice that the index at A is below the valley at B, but the blue indicator line makes a low at B and a higher low at A. I show that with the two red lines plus another slightly-up-sloping red line near the bottom of the chart.

We can see that the index climbed after the divergence. The question now becomes, what happens next?

Some indices look like they've had an extended run and should retrace soon. These two charts are bullish and we don't see that kind of run upward. With republicans slated to take over both branches of congress in today's elections, the market will love that. So I look for more of a move up before we see a retrace.

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Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ADTN, AES, AKAM, ALB, DOX, AEL, ABC, AMGN, AMN, AAPL, AWI, ASH, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BMI, BSET, BIO, BA, BBW, BLDR, BG, CBT, CALM, CLS, CENX, CNO, CAG, COST, CR, CROX, CCK, CSGS, DHR, DFS, D, EMN, WIRE, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FISV, FIVN, FORM, GME, GE, GNW, GES, HLIT, HAYN, HQY, HSY, HON, HOV, ILMN, IPG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, K, KLIC, L, LXU, MHO, M, MCHX, MDC, MS, MLI, MYGN, NTAP, ORI, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PETS, PFE, PNW, DGX, RJF, ROST, RES, SMG, SEE, NOW, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SXI, TPR, TDOC, TMO, TJX, TSCO, VRSN, V, WEX, IYM, ITB, FTEC, FXL, FXI, IYZ, EWO, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, PBE, PEJ, PJP, IXN, XLB, XLK, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/8/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.3% or 423.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 269 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 145 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 124 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 53.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 251/453 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/103 or 47.6% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Swift Transportation: SWFT (actual trade).

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Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALRM, AA, DOX, AEP, ABC, AMGN, AMAT, ARW, ATO, BCPC, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BKH, BMY, BG, CNP, CVX, CMTL, CMI, DECK, ^DJU, D, DTE, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, EZPW, FLS, GL, GS, HE, HQY, HON, HOV, IEX, IDXX, ITW, NVTA, KLAC, KSS, LXU, M, MTRX, NKE, NI, OGE, PKG, PNW, POR, PFG, PRU, DGX, RGS, ROST, SLB, SRE, SKX, LUV, SWN, SXI, SUM, TPX, TMO, VMI, XEL, IHE, IDU, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, TUR, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,108.97    
 Monthly S1  29,967.98  2,859.02   
 Weekly S2  31,197.11  1,229.13   
 Monthly Pivot  31,519.96  322.84   
 Weekly S1  32,012.06  492.10   
 Daily S2  32,245.26  233.20   
 Low  32,424.99  179.73   
 Open  32,454.10  29.11   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  32,536.13  82.03   
 Weekly Pivot  32,541.99  5.86   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,604.76  62.77   
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,660.29  55.53   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,715.82  55.53   
 Daily Pivot  32,715.86  0.04   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,827.00  111.14   
 High  32,895.59  68.59   
 Daily R1  33,006.73  111.14   
 Daily R2  33,186.46  179.73   
 Weekly R1  33,356.94  170.48   
 Weekly R2  33,886.88  529.94   
 Monthly R1  34,378.97  492.10   
 Monthly R2  35,930.95  1,551.97   

Monday 11/7/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

At AB is an Eve & Adam double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above red line C. The index makes a nice climb after.

More recently, we see the index climbing higher in a channel formed with two parallel lines. The transports broke out upward from the channel and then returned to it, as if the upward momentum had disappeared.

The index has lifted back out of the channel now, so it looks set to move higher, but it'll have to push through the knot of resistance immediately to the left of where it's at now.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 128.85 points.
Tuesday: Down 79.75 points.
Wednesday: Down 505.44 points.
Thursday: Down 146.51 points.
Friday: Up 401.97 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 458.58 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 627.2 points or 5.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 130.51 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     12.3% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     13.1% up from the low of 28,660.94 on 10/13/2022.
Nasdaq
     33.9% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     3.8% up from the low of 10,088.83 on 10/13/2022.
S&P 500
     21.8% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     8.0% up from the low of 3,491.58 on 10/13/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,645  32,024  32,318  32,697  32,990 
Weekly  31,056  31,730  32,401  33,074  33,746 
Monthly  26,968  29,685  31,379  34,096  35,790 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,671  3,721  3,759  3,808  3,846 
Weekly  3,580  3,675  3,793  3,889  4,007 
Monthly  3,304  3,537  3,725  3,958  4,145 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,140  10,308  10,431  10,598  10,721 
Weekly  9,738  10,107  10,632  11,000  11,525 
Monthly  9,457  9,966  10,598  11,108  11,740 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 109 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, ADTN, APD, AA, AMED, AFG, AMN, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AZTA, BAX, BIG, BKH, BAH, CNC, CENX, CHD, CMTL, GLW, CR, CROX, CCRN, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EL, EZPW, FDS, FISV, FLS, FCX, GE, GS, GPRO, HTLD, HL, HOV, ITW, INFN, IPAR, TILE, INTU, NVTA, JKHY, K, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, MTSI, M, MA, MU, MSFT, NFG, NOV, OLN, PANW, PGR, PRU, DGX, RGS, RGA, ROK, ROG, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TFX, TDC, TER, TSCO, VRSN, V, VC, WERN, WEX, IHF, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, ILF, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Integrated)1. Petroleum (Integrated)
2. Securities Brokerage2. Metal Fabricating
3. Metal Fabricating3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Machinery4. Securities Brokerage
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Machinery
6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment6. Insurance (Life)
7. Food Processing7. Aerospace/Defense
8. Insurance (Life)8. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
9. Shoe9. Food Processing
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Short ETFs
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Air Transport51. Air Transport
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
53. Semiconductor53. Apparel
54. Packaging and Container54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Electronics55. Medical Supplies
56. Computers and Peripherals56. Chemical (Basic)
57. Computer Software and Svcs57. Semiconductor
58. Chemical (Basic)58. Packaging and Container
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. E-Commerce
60. E-Commerce60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/4/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, DOX, AEO, AEP, ABC, ANIK, APA, ADM, AWI, AIZ, ADP, AZTA, BALL, BAX, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BKNG, BMY, CDNS, CX, CVX, CMTL, CRH, CROX, CCK, CW, DSGR, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, EZPW, FFIV, FIS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, GE, GNW, GILD, GPN, GOOGL, HSII, HELE, HP, HON, HOV, ITW, INFN, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KLIC, LHX, LANC, LNC, LMT, LXU, MTSI, M, MRO, MAS, META, MOS, NOV, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NUS, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PYPL, PPL, PRU, DGX, RJF, RGS, RCKY, ROG, SLB, SMG, SEE, SRE, LUV, SWN, SXI, TPR, TXN, RIG, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, VMC, WSM, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, FXI, IEO, EWO, EWG, EWM, EZA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, GLD, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEISPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Semiconductor
ALKSTriple bottom      09/27/202210/21/2022Drug
AYXTriangle, symmetrical      10/13/202211/02/2022Computer Software and Svcs
AXPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/21/2022Financial Services
AMNThree Rising Valleys      09/06/202210/21/2022Human Resources
ANIKRounding bottom      03/18/202211/02/2022Biotechnology
ARCBBroadening top      10/04/202211/03/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AVNTBroadening bottom      09/29/202211/02/2022Chemical (Specialty)
BAXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/05/202210/26/2022Medical Supplies
BBYHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/30/202210/21/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BIGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/03/202210/24/2022Retail Store
BMYHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/03/202210/21/2022Drug
CALHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/14/202210/13/2022Shoe
CEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/26/202210/13/2022Chemical (Basic)
CXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/27/202210/14/2022Cement and Aggregates
CFRising wedge      09/21/202210/27/2022Chemical (Basic)
CTSHUgly double bottom      10/13/202210/21/2022IT Services
COTYRectangle bottom      09/29/202211/03/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
CTSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/06/202210/24/2022Electronics
EMNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/29/202210/13/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EXCPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Electric Utility (East)
EZPWRounding bottom      08/16/202211/01/2022Financial Services
FISDead-cat bounce      11/03/202211/03/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FEHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/07/202210/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
GOOGLBroadening top      09/23/202210/25/2022Internet
HTLDRectangle bottom      09/01/202211/02/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HOLXPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Medical Supplies
HUBGBig W      09/26/202210/20/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
JBHTHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/23/202210/13/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IPIDead-cat bounce      11/03/202211/03/2022Chemical (Diversified)
JAZZDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Biotechnology
KFRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/18/202210/28/2022Human Resources
LEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/11/202210/21/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LXUBroadening wedge, ascending      10/05/202211/03/2022Building Materials
MTRNDead-cat bounce      11/02/202211/02/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDTHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202210/21/2022Medical Supplies
MLKNPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
MYGNDead-cat bounce      11/01/202211/01/2022Biotechnology
NBRFlag, high and tight      09/23/202211/03/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NFGHorn bottom      09/26/202210/10/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
NEUDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/04/202210/25/2022Chemical (Specialty)
NEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Electric Utility (East)
NIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/20/2022Electric Utility (Central)
JWNPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Retail Store
NUSPipe bottom      09/26/202210/03/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
OMCLDead-cat bounce      11/02/202211/02/2022Healthcare Information
PKGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/26/202210/13/2022Packaging and Container
DGXCup with handle      08/11/202210/31/2022Medical Services
RLTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/202211/01/2022Apparel
ROGDead-cat bounce      11/02/202211/02/2022Electronics
SMGPipe bottom      10/03/202210/10/2022Chemical (Basic)
SEICPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022IT Services
SCCOBroadening top      10/04/202211/01/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/21/2022Cement and Aggregates
WSOPipe bottom      10/10/202210/17/2022Retail Building Supply
WUDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/04/202210/18/2022Financial Services
IHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/13/202210/21/2022Medical Supplies

 

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Thursday 11/3/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -3.4% or -366.05 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 10 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.6% on 5 occasions.
     Average loss was -3.3% on 5 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 246/435 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 68/140 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not a lot to say about this chart. On the far left is a small head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern (SHS).

In the middle of the chart is a pair of double tops, BC and DE. They confirm as valid chart patterns when the index closed below the horizontal red line. The BC top didn't see price fall far enough to be a valuable trade. DE did better.

Point A shows a pullback to just above the DE neckline (the red line) before the FED announcement of an interest rate cut pulled the floor out from under the index. Down it went.

What happens next? I don't have an idea, based on this chart (it doesn't show enough history). I expect a bounce. The index is resting on support so I expect a recovery. For all I know, the index could continue lower, though.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADTN, ALKS, AMED, AEL, AAPL, ADSK, ADP, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BALL, BIG, BIIB, BA, BBW, CENX, CINF, CLX, CGNX, CMTL, CR, CSGS, XRAY, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EZPW, FFIV, FAST, FDX, GNW, GPRO, THG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HOV, ITW, INFN, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, LHX, LH, LAMR, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, M, MTRN, MYGN, NJR, NEU, NOC, NWPX, OMCL, PANW, PPG, PINC, PRU, PEG, PHM, DGX, RGA, RLI, RCKY, ROG, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SEE, SIGI, NOW, SWN, SXI, SRDX, TDOC, TXN, TMO, UNM, VRTX, WMB, WSM, WDAY, ZBRA, IYC, DDM, FDN, IGV, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EZA, PBE, PJP, PHO, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,473.08    
 Monthly S1  9,998.94  525.86   
 Daily S2  10,209.97  211.03   
 Weekly S2  10,319.12  109.15   
 Daily S1  10,367.39  48.27   
 Weekly S1  10,421.96  54.57   
 Low  10,522.90  100.94   
 Close  10,524.80  1.90   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  10,614.69  89.89   
 Daily Pivot  10,680.31  65.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,702.57  22.26   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,758.07  55.50   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,813.57  55.50   
 Weekly Pivot  10,816.17  2.60   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  10,837.73  21.56   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  10,885.01  47.28   
 Weekly R1  10,919.01  34.00   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 High  10,993.24  74.23   
 Monthly R1  11,140.55  147.31   
 Daily R2  11,150.65  10.10   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  11,313.22  162.57   
 Monthly R2  11,756.30  443.08   

Wednesday 11/2/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Yesterday, I covered the CPI in the 2022 forecast update. In this chart, we see the CPI line continuing to drop. The indicator is still bullish, but I expect it to turn neutral before going bearish.

However, tomorrow the FED meets and we've seen the markets rises after the meeting as if they markets are saying "Whew! It's over."

One can argue that once a pattern is established it'll cease to work. That could mean the markets will drop tomorrow.

In other words, the markets can go either way.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 57% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 63%.
The fewest was 21% on 11/12/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 451 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 29%.
The peak was 12% on 11/08/2021.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines are more bullish this week compared to a week ago. My feeling is that the uptrend will continue but evidence for that is thin.

The two charts shows diverging trends. The CPI chart shows growing weakness. This chart is bullish, however, one could argue that a retrace is overdue.

Let's wait for tomorrow's (Wednesday's) close to see what the indices do. If we see a big spike upward, I would expect a retrace of that move. A down move might be lasting, so that the markets will move sideways.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, AJRD, AMED, AEL, AAPL, ACGL, BCPC, BALL, BIG, BIIB, BKNG, BOOT, CX, CRL, CINF, CLF, CMTL, CCK, CSGS, DDS, DRQ, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EQT, RE, EZPW, FFIV, FDX, FRD, IT, THG, HSC, HE, HELE, HOLX, DHI, HOV, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, NVTA, KALU, LHX, LDOS, M, MANH, MAS, MUR, MYGN, NWL, NEU, NOC, OMCL, PATK, PFE, PGR, PHM, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RGS, RGA, ROST, CRM, SEE, SIGI, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TECH, TDOC, TFX, SLCA, UNM, WSM, IEZ, DDM, BOTZ, IGV, IGE, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWU, PPA, PBE, PHO, XLV, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -128.85 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 939 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 477 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 462 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 251/452 or 55.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/103 or 47.6% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 28 October 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+62%)
3. Consumer staples (-5%)
4. Health care (-6%)
2. Utilities (-6%)
6. Industrials (-11%)
8. Financials (-13%)
5. Materials (-17%)
9. Information technology (-26%)
7. Real estate (-29%)
10. Consumer discretionary (-30%)
11. Communication services (-38%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 10/28/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
4. Financials
3. Consumer discretionary
6. Industrials
5. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
10. Real estate
11. Materials

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 10/28/22. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

1. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+59%)
3. Energy equipment and services (+40%)
3. Construction and engineering (+21%)
2. Health care providers and services (+21%)
5. Food products (17%)
10. Biotechnology (+17%)
8. Pharmaceuticals (+14%)
6. Beverages (+12%)
New. Aerospace & Defense (+10%)
New. Insurance (+6%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 72 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, ALB, ALKS, AMAT, AZTA, BALL, CAL, CLF, CAG, CSGS, WIRE, EOG, EXC, EZPW, FISV, FMC, FRD, GGG, HBI, HSC, HOLX, HD, ITW, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IVC, K, LRCX, LDOS, LLY, LXU, M, MLM, MTRN, MUR, NBR, NUS, OXY, PLXS, PPG, DGX, RGS, RES, SEIC, SKX, SXI, TER, RIG, SLCA, VMC, WSO, WOLF, IYE, IEZ, FXI, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWZ, EWH, EZA, PXJ, IXC, ILF, XLE, XLV, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,199.03    
 Monthly S1  29,965.99  2,766.96   
 Weekly S2  30,532.99  567.00   
 Monthly Pivot  31,427.90  894.91   
 Weekly S1  31,632.97  205.07   
 Weekly Pivot  32,261.39  628.42   
 Daily S2  32,437.65  176.26   
 Daily S1  32,585.30  147.65   
 Low  32,586.93  1.63   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,700.36  113.43   
 Close  32,732.95  32.59   
 Daily Pivot  32,734.58  1.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,735.39  0.81   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  32,754.27  18.88   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,770.43  16.16   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  32,882.23  111.80   
 High  32,883.86  1.63   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  33,031.51  147.65   
 Weekly R1  33,361.37  329.86   
 Weekly R2  33,989.79  628.42   
 Monthly R1  34,194.86  205.07   
 Monthly R2  35,656.77  1,461.91   

 

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Legal notices: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases." Paid links).

My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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