As of 04/18/2024
Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%
Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%
Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%
S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%
|
YTD
+0.2%
-6.0%
-2.4%
+3.9%
+5.1%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/18/2024
Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%
Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%
Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%
S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%
|
YTD
+0.2%
-6.0%
-2.4%
+3.9%
+5.1%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 12/1/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on December 1. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The CPI as of today's close (Dec 1), is at 87% (it peaked at 96.2 yesterday), which is bullish and high, but not unusual. The top is 100%.
A check of the CPI shows that it hit 96.4% back on October 21. So we still have bearish divergence. Knowing this, the bottom diagonal red line should touch the top of the CPI line, not cut through it near the end. When it touches the two highest peaks, you won't even see a slight downward slope, but it's there. It diverges from the top diagonal line and that's bearish.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The 2022 forecast is in red, made in January.
The industrials are trying to touch the forecast. It might make it by year's end. My guess is it won't. I think the index will turn lower, forming an inverted and ascending scallop.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
Compare this chart with the prior one. The Nasdaq is well below the forecast. The index completed a double bottom in Oct-early Nov, and that pattern confirmed. The index appears to be moving higher going into year's end.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
This chart also seems to be trending lower. It's making lower lows and lower highs, but that could change. You might see it retrace the 2-month uptrend shortly.
This is the forecast going out to 2032, using the monthly scale.
From about 10,000, the index will climb to almost 50,000 in ten years, providing the forecast is correct. It's almost never correct, though. But next year should start a new uptrend.
It suggests to buy and hold stocks.
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