As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%	Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%
Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

Friday 10/30/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, AKAM, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AXP, ABC, AON, APOG, ATO, ADP, AXS, BMI, BAX, BBBY, BIG, BAH, BRC, BMY, BLDR, COG, CAL, CPB, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CLR, CLGX, CREE, DECK, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, EMR, EFX, EZPW, FB, FDS, FAST, FIS, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GNW, GL, GPRO, GES, HBI, HE, HQY, HL, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HOV, IEX, ILMN, INOV, INTC, TILE, IPI, ISRG, JCOM, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, K, KMT, LANC, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRK, MLI, MYL, NJR, NEU, OGE, OTEX, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PRFT, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PGR, RJF, RNG, ROST, RES, CRM, SEE, SIGI, STMP, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TECH, TFX, TDC, TKR, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, VEEV, V, WEX, WSM, WDAY, IYM, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, EWO, ECH, EWH, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWT, TUR, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, XLE, XLV, XLB, XRT, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 31 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 5.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 18 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/29/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Based on the number of patterns found (418, see below) by my version of Patternz, the market is angry.

Let's walk through what I see on the chart.

There's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom at LHR. L is for the left shoulders, of which there are many, one head (H) poking below the others, and R for the right shoulders (several of them, balancing and mirroring the ones on the left).

The index appears to have closed above the thin blue neckline at A and then dropped, to B.

That short spike upward and reversal to B tells me it's a busted pattern. Busted upward breakouts can lead to powerful drops. I'm not saying Thursday will be a bloodbath. The above probabilities suggest an upward close. But my guess is, yes, the index is going lower. Maybe a lot lower.

Covid-19 isn't going away, regardless of what Trump says. It's getting worse. France is in a second round of lockdown. It's a sure thing the US is going to follow. The market is realizing that.

Addendum

An hour after I posted this on Wednesday evening, I looked at the daily chart of the Dow industrials and Nasdaq. The Dow is sitting right at support. So my guess is Thursday it is going to close higher. The Nasdaq has a gap, probably an exhaustion gap. It's resting a day to two days above support. So I'm thinking the Nasdaq will drop some during the day on Thursday, but maybe close higher. It's possible the index will continue down for another day or two before finding footing and reversing.

As it says near the top of this post, check the futures before the stock market opens to get a better gauge of how things will go at the open.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 418 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AFL, APD, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, ALL, DOX, AEO, AXP, ABC, AMGN, APH, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BMY, BG, CBT, COG, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CPB, CLS, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, COP, CLR, CLGX, GLW, COTY, CR, CREE, CRH, CSGS, CMI, CW, XRAY, DVN, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, RE, EVH, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FLIR, FMC, FTNT, FRD, IT, GE, GIS, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, HUBG, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INOV, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IPG, IPI, INTU, ISRG, JCOM, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KLIC, LB, LZB, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, LMT, L, LOW, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NKE, NUS, OXY, OGE, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PAYX, PRFT, PICO, PLXS, POL, PPL, PINC, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RGA, RNG, RHI, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SO, LUV, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TDC, TXN, TKR, TJX, TG, UGI, UPS, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VMC, WU, WLK, WEX, WSM, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLK, USO, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/28/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Before I forget, NEE had a 4 for 1 stock split but I forgot to adjust it before I ran my pattern scan. Thus, in the below list, it'll show a dead-cat bounce event pattern for the stock. Ignore it.

This chart shows a bearish signal in the cpi (chart pattern indicator), just like it did a week ago except the timing of the signal changed. Signals can appear or disappear for up to a week.

But we're bearish now. Again.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

This chart remains bearish from a week ago, when it was bearish, too.

What I wrote last week still stands. Both charts are bearish. September is the weakest month of the year. October isn't that bad, despite having suffered some big hits (Black Monday in October 1987 comes to mind. The Dow dropped 22% in one session, equivalent to a 6,000 point drop in today's markets.)

Come November, we may see some mutual funds begin rebalancing their portfolios but it's usually a good month, along with December. Of course, I'll update the forecast on Monday for the year.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 242 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, APD, ALK, ADS, ALL, AEL, AXP, AMWD, APA, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, ASH, ATO, ADP, AVA, BMI, BECN, BERY, BIG, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CRL, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CTXS, CNA, CONN, CLR, GLW, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CW, DHR, DVN, D, DOV, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EQT, EL, XOM, FFIV, FAST, FIS, FISV, FWRD, GME, IT, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, GFF, THG, HSC, HSII, HELE, HNI, HON, HURC, INOV, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, IPI, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KMT, KFRC, LB, LAMR, LDOS, LLY, LNC, L, M, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MDT, MS, MLI, MYGN, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, OUT, PAYX, PRFT, PNW, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEE, SO, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TMO, TJX, TZOO, TG, UGI, UPS, VEEV, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WSM, XLNX, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/27/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Florida Rock

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Florida Rock (FRK) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AJRD, APD, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMWD, APA, AMAT, ARW, ASH, AXS, BECN, BERY, BMRN, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CENX, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CL, CMTL, ED, COST, CCRN, CW, D, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EOG, EZPW, FIS, FEYE, FLIR, FMC, FRD, IT, GNW, GS, HTLD, HOLX, JBHT, ILMN, IBP, INTC, IBKR, NVTA, JCOM, JKHY, LEG, LDOS, LLY, MTSI, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MOS, ^IXIC, CNR, NJR, NXGN, OXY, OTEX, PKE, PRFT, PICO, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PEG, PHM, RGS, RGA, RHI, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SEE, NOW, SHW, SCS, SSYS, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TMO, TJX, TG, UPS, WERN, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYF, EWK, EWC, EWG, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, TUR, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/26/20. Market Monday: Flag in S&P

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At AB, a double bottom appears which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms.

I show the confirmation line C. After that, the index made a tasty gain.

More recently, the index has made a flag pattern. The flagpole is a loose looking thing, starting from the September low. Usually I like to see a straight-line run up as a pole and not a lot of congestion along the way. The uptrend in this case doesn't really have that.

What happens next?

The truth is, no one knows. But a good guess is the flag will breakout upward. They usually do when the trend is upward and the flag slopes downward.

Sprinkled into the mix is overhead resistance setup by the prior peak in early September. It successfully halted the upward move. If the flag breaks out upward, then the up-move may be short lived.

It's also interesting to note that the bearish signal in the chart pattern indicator (not shown in this chart) has disappeared. It can do that for up to 7 days. So it supports the bullish upward breakout.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ALRM, ADS, AEO, AXP, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ADM, AWI, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BBW, CACI, CAL, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CLR, CCRN, CTS, DRQ, DTE, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EOG, RE, FOE, FEYE, FLS, FRD, GPS, GD, GNW, GILD, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, KELYA, KMT, KMB, LH, LAMR, LLY, MRTN, MLM, MA, MGEE, NJR, NEU, NUS, OGE, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PFE, PPL, PINC, PFG, PRU, PEG, PHM, RL, RMBS, RES, SO, SWN, SR, SSYS, TFX, TDC, TEVA, WERN, WLK, FXI, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWH, EWW, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PHO, ILF, XLF, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/23/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AJRD, DOX, AEO, AEP, AEL, APH, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, ATO, AVA, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BRC, CAL, CLS, CRL, CINF, CSCO, CTSH, CLR, CR, CRH, DVN, DFS, DUK, EIX, EIGI, EZPW, FAST, FFG, FDX, FLIR, FCX, GPS, GIS, GGG, GES, HAYN, HTLD, HOV, JBHT, HURC, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IBP, NVTA, JCOM, JAZZ, JNJ, KALU, KBAL, KMB, LAMR, LLY, L, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MRK, ^IXIC, NFG, NFLX, NOC, NWPX, OGE, OXM, PDCO, PCG, DGX, RMBS, RJF, SCHW, SAIC, SEIC, SHW, SLGN, SNPS, TECH, TSCO, TZOO, SLCA, VEEV, WMB, ITA, IYM, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IHE, FTEC, IYH, IAT, EWK, EWH, EIS, IBB, PPA, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IXN, XLE, XHB, XLB, XAR, XLK, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/22/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern indicator (CPI, not shown) is still bearish. I'm just saying...

This chart shows a triple top at peaks 1, 2, 3. I'm counting the major tops here, even though peak 3 has two peaks similar in price to the spike between 2 and 3, on the down-slope from 2.

More recent, LHR is a head (H)-and-shoulders (L, R) top. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the blue line. H and R are almost at the same height so you could call this a double top, too.

In red is a broadening formation, right-angled and ascending. They breakout upward 55% of the time, which is about random.

The text at the start of this post says price will close higher 54.5% of the time, so I guess that's the way I'll bet.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 115 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, AJRD, AES, ATSG, DOX, AXP, APH, ANTM, ARCB, ACGL, BZH, BIG, BAH, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CLNE, CL, CMCO, CR, CREE, CROX, XRAY, DVN, DTE, DUK, EIGI, FAST, FDX, FE, FRD, GNW, GGG, HLIT, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HOLX, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, NVTA, JNJ, KBAL, KMB, LRCX, LLY, LXU, MCHX, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MYL, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NXGN, JWN, OXY, ORI, PATK, PYPL, PETS, PCG, RLI, SAIC, SEIC, SHW, SCS, TDC, TOL, TZOO, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VEEV, VC, WMT, WERN, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, ITB, IEO, FXI, BOTZ, EWK, EWG, EWJ, EZA, DBA, PHO, XLE, GLD, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/21/20. Indicators Bearish: Uh-Oh!

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the red vertical bar on the far right of the chart. We haven't seen one of those in a while, so you may want to avert your eyes.

It's a bearish signal. It's only two days old, so there's a good chance it will disappear. That can happen for up to a week with this indicator. Still, it's a warning.

As a reference, look back to mid August. A bearish signal appeared but the index continued higher. Other turns, like the one in February, were more dramatic.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines this week are more bearish than the snapshot taken a week ago. That's not good news either. The change wasn't much compared to what we've seen in the past, but we have both charts giving off bearish signals.

What does it mean? The sky is falling, of course (meteor shower tonight - Tuesday).

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the index has hit overhead resistance and is now retracing, something I suspected would happen a week ago and blogged about. The index will likely continue down.

You have to wonder, now that the country is about to embark on the second wave or third surge, that things are going to get bad. Very bad. And that's going to panic the market.

So hold onto your cash because you'll have a buying opportunity coming, probably before the end of the year. But maybe it's time to sell some losers now, take a tax deductions, and build up that cash for the coming drop.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, DOX, AEL, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ATO, AXS, BIO, BAH, BRC, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CHS, CINF, CMCO, CAG, CLR, CREE, CRH, CCK, CSGS, DECK, DFS, EXP, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EIGI, RE, FAST, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HOLX, JBHT, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JNJ, KMB, LH, LDOS, LLY, MLM, MYL, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PRFT, PINC, RGS, SAIC, NOW, SHW, SUM, TDOC, TDC, TSCO, TZOO, TG, SLCA, VRTX, WSO, ITA, IEO, IHE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWI, EWP, EWL, EWU, PPA, PBE, IEV, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/20/20. Slider Trading Quiz: Family Dollar!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Family Dollar (FDO) (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 203 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADBE, AJRD, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AXP, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, AVY, AXS, BLL, BSET, BMRN, BAH, BRC, BBW, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CNC, CRL, CHS, CHD, CNA, CL, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, GLW, COST, COTY, CREE, CRH, CSGS, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, D, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FOE, FRD, GD, GE, GPN, GOOGL, THG, HQY, JBHT, IEX, ILMN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JKHY, JAZZ, JNJ, KMB, KLAC, LOW, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MRK, MS, MLI, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEU, JWN, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PINC, DGX, RJF, RGS, RLI, ROG, SCHW, SAIC, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, STMP, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TRV, TG, SLCA, UGI, V, WSO, WERN, WLK, ITA, IAI, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXN, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XLK, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/19/20. Market Monday: Nasdaq Cup w/Handle?

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I'm not a big fan of patterns with rounded turns. They are hard to recognize using automated means and often don't work well anyway.

The cup with handle pattern is an exception on the performance front. A recent review of chart patterns shows its performance in bull markets ranks third out of 39 patterns, where a rank of 1 is best.

So it's at the top of the list.

Could this chart be a picture of one?

It has the ingredients of a cup. Price rises into the cup (the blue channel). A concave rounded turn follows (red line). A handle on the right follows the cup.

So far, the handle hasn't dropped far, which is a good thing. Short handles are good, too.

The cup isn't a smooth as I like to see, but few patterns are perfect.

The pattern will confirm if or when price closes above the right rim. If the handle drops below midway down the cup, then that's bad news. If the handle lasts more than 22 days, that's also bad news. We'll have to see how this pattern continues to unfold in the coming days.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AES, ALKS, ADS, AMZN, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, APH, AVY, AXS, BMI, BLL, BSET, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CF, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CNO, CMCO, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CCK, CTS, DHR, DDS, EMR, EQT, EXPD, FISV, FLEX, FCX, GE, GL, GES, IEX, ITW, INCY, INTU, ISRG, KELYA, KBAL, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LOW, MCHX, MDCA, MLHR, NWL, JWN, NUS, OMCL, PKG, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, DGX, ROG, SKX, STMP, TMO, TJX, TOL, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, WAT, WLK, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IHI, IEO, IAT, IGV, EWH, PPA, PHO, ILF, XLI, XLB, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/16/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AKAM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, APH, AON, APOG, ARCB, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, COG, CALM, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CVX, CNA, CLR, GLW, COST, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CMI, DFS, EIX, EIGI, EQT, EXC, FDS, FOE, FTNT, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GE, GIS, GPRO, GFF, THG, HSC, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IVC, KBH, KBAL, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LNC, L, LOW, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MDCA, MRK, MSFT, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, NTAP, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PTEN, PLXS, POR, PPL, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RGS, REV, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SEE, SRE, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SCS, TKR, TOL, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, VRTX, WERN, WWW, ZBRA, IAI, ITB, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IGV, IYF, EWK, EWC, EWH, EPP, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PHO, XLV, XHB, XRT, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/15/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A triple top appears on the chart as the three peaks 1-2-3. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the blue line. I use a close instead of the low price to avoid premature breakouts. In this example, the index broke out downward at A.

Following that, a flag appeared. I show that at B. The flagpole (the drop from C to the start of B) isn't really long enough to support the pattern. In other words, it doesn't look proportional. The flag is too long for the flagpole.

If you look from point 3 to the start of B, there's a measured move down chart pattern where the flag has returned to the corrective phase of the MMD. That's how MMDs often behave.

After that, the security usually resumes its downward trend, so that's what I'm looking for on Thursday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AMGN, ASH, AXS, BBBY, BMRN, COG, CAL, CLS, CVX, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, GLW, COST, CRH, DDS, EIGI, EQT, XOM, FAST, FISV, IT, GES, HLIT, HSIC, HOV, ILMN, NSP, IBP, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, JNJ, LZB, LLY, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MSFT, MLHR, NBR, NFG, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, OUT, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, QCOM, REV, CRM, SMG, SEIC, SHW, SXI, TGT, TKR, TREX, SLCA, VMI, V, WMT, WLK, ZBRA, IYC, IHE, FDN, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWK, EWW, EWP, EWL, TUR, EWU, IBB, XLY, XHB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/14/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Last week I warned about weakness in the indices coming. The index has climbed since then. Oops.

You can see that the index has peaked at the price level of the August high (at least I think it's August. Could be early September). Anyway, that's a sign of overhead resistance.

Today (Tuesday) was a down day for the indices. The CPI dipped on the news. Will it continue? I can't tell. The batteries in my crystal ball need changing.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines (red and blue) dipped today. The dip is hard to see but it's visible on the chart. That is in contrast to a rising trend from a week ago.

The two lines show weakness, but I said that last week, too. So this might be a one-day hiccup or it might lead to a more serious downturn.

My guess: It's the start of a downtrend. That's not because of what I see on the charts, using the indicators. Rather, it's based on overhead resistance. My target would be 360 on the prior chart, right scale (which is for the CPI but it gives you the level). There's a knot sitting there, ready to catch price if it falls. So I'm thinking the index hit that knot and pull back.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, ALKS, ADS, AYX, DOX, AMGN, APA, AAPL, BECN, BERY, BIG, COG, CALM, CENX, CVX, CIEN, CSCO, CTSH, CMCO, CLGX, CMI, DDS, DRQ, EMN, EOG, EQT, XOM, FISV, FORM, GPRO, HLIT, HOLX, HD, IBKR, IPI, IVC, KLIC, LDOS, MANH, MCHX, MU, MSFT, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NKE, OGE, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, PTEN, SMG, SIGI, SHW, SNPS, TKR, TSCO, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VMC, WSO, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEO, IHF, SOXX, EWW, EWP, IBB, XLE, XRT, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/13/20. Bullish Carl V Pattern Released

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I released a chart pattern new to the website, called the bullish Carl V, named after it's founder, Carl Vanhaesendonck

Mr. Vanhaesendonck lives in Belgium and spent the last two decades trading currencies, futures, and stocks (via CFD, part-time) as day-trader or occasional swing trader, while maintaining a career as global business development executive in the medical IT field. Now that he's retired, he's trading almost full time.

He wrote in an email, "I discovered that pattern probably 4-5 years ago, almost noting distractedly the [repetitive] outcome, first thinking 'that was just my imagination.' " He started trading the pattern in earnest this year and shared his discovery with me. I researched the pattern and below are the main results

Bullish Carl V: Bull Market Results

* These numbers use my traditional gauge of the rise from the breakout price (the top of the chart pattern) to ultimate high. Using that approach, the pattern would place 23rd out of 40 for performance where 1 is best. However, that's not how Vanhaesendonck trades the chart pattern. He takes a position just after bottom D forms and rides price higher, often exiting at a target price, not the ultimate high. Using his approach, price reaches the target 62% of the time in the stock market (he trades currencies).

The Carl V looks like a Fibonacci-based pattern, but it's not. There's no calculating involved, so it's easy to find.

To read the full article, click here.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 214 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AES, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ADS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEP, AFG, AIG, APH, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, CLGX, GLW, COST, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DDS, D, DOV, EMN, EMR, EOG, EZPW, FB, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FLS, FTNT, FDP, GD, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, THG, HLIT, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, LNC, L, LOW, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MDCA, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PANW, PYPL, PNW, POR, PPG, PINC, KWR, RGA, ROK, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SR, SRDX, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, TG, SLCA, UNM, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WLK, WEX, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IHI, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, QLD, DBA, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLF, XLI, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/12/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's start with the left pattern. You can't see all of it. It looks like a broadening top and it might be. But it's also part of what's called a Carl V pattern. It's a new one I'm researching with Carl Vanhaesendonck. Hopefully, we'll release details of it soon. It predicts a rise after the last bottom touch in the pattern and that's what happens in this example.

To the right of that is a double bottom (DB). The pattern confirms as valid when the index closes above the green line.

Next comes a flag and it's a pretty one, too. Two parallel lines, nice and tight, sitting atop a flagpole.

Finally, we come to a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. LS is the left shoulder, H is the head, and RS is the right shoulder. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the blue line.

The tightening of the high-low range on price as it climbs the last few days suggests a slackening of momentum. I don't know if that's true or not, but it looks like it needs supplemental oxygen.

If you measure the height of the pattern from the low price at the head to the neckline directly above it and add it to the breakout price (where the index crosses the blue line going upward), you get a measure rule target.

It suggests, but does not guarantee, that price has more to climb, probably peaking above the old high. If the index does rise, it'll probably stall just shy of the September peak.

Keep in mind that the index could drop, too.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 4 days.

Here's a symbol list of 239 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AYI, AJRD, AFL, AA, ADS, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, ATO, AVY, BSET, BIO, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BG, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNP, CF, CVX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CL, CMTL, CAG, GLW, CREE, CRH, XRAY, DOV, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EZPW, FEYE, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GD, GE, GL, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HP, HOV, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IPG, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LLY, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NXGN, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PICO, PNW, PPG, PPL, PINC, PFG, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SMTC, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SUM, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TJX, TRV, TG, UNM, VEEV, VC, WLK, WEX, WMB, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, IYH, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/9/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 228 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, APD, AA, ADS, AEO, AMN, APH, ARCB, ARW, ADP, AVY, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BIG, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CALM, CX, CNP, CVX, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, GLW, COTY, CRH, CTS, XRAY, ^DJU, DOV, DTE, EXP, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EPAM, EFX, RE, EZPW, FICO, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, GME, IT, GD, GPN, GOOGL, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HP, HON, HURC, IEX, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KMB, LZB, LEG, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, LOW, LXU, MLM, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MOS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, OXY, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PATK, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PPG, PPL, PFG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, RGA, RNG, RHI, ROK, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, NOW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, STMP, SUM, TDOC, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TKR, RIG, TRV, TG, UNM, VMI, VC, VMC, WLK, WEX, IYM, IAI, IYK, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLU, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 55 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 9.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is moving sideways (consolidating).

I found 35 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is mildly bullish. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 67 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (19) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/8/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Sometimes there's not a lot to comment on so I have to search. In this case, I focused on the two parallel red lines in the upper right of the chart.

They form an up-sloping channel. Nothing unusual about that. Will it continue?

I drew more lines, red ones. Notice anything unusual? They all have a similar slope. The slope is one of the three bear's thing: not to steep and not to shallow. The slope is just right.

If you combine overhead resistance with a reluctance of the index to continue the trend two days in a row (half the time, anyway), it suggests weakness. However, that's thin evidence.

The above probabilities say the odds favor an upward close. I leave the direction guess in your hands, but the index looks tired to me.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, AKAM, AA, ADS, AEE, APH, ARCB, AVY, BSET, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, GLW, CCK, CSGS, XRAY, ^DJU, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EMR, RE, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FEYE, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, GME, GD, GPRO, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HP, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LLY, LNC, RAMP, L, LXU, MLM, MRK, MOS, MLI, NJR, NWL, NXGN, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PICO, PPG, KWR, RGA, ROK, ROST, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, TFX, TXT, TKR, TRV, TG, UNM, VC, VMC, WAT, WLK, WEX, IYH, IHF, IAT, EWA, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, DBA, GLD, XLI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/7/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has turned green more than 7 days ago, so it's a firm, valid signal. I write that because signals can change for up to a week.

Notice that thin blue line at the bottom of the chart. That's the indicator and it has turned down today. No surprise there because the market dropped. However, it's a warning of weakness.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red and blue lines have been trending higher over the last week, following the index upward.

Looking at the two lines today, it's difficult to see but they seemed to move horizontal to down. If that's true, then it's a sign of weakness.

The two charts appear bullish on the surface, but digging in and they are signaling caution. We might see the indices continue their slide.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 264 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, AXDX, AMD, APD, ALK, AA, ALKS, ADS, AYX, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AVY, BSET, BECN, BZH, BKH, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BMY, CBT, CE, CX, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CSGS, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EFX, RE, EXPD, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FCX, GME, GD, GE, GILD, GL, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HOLX, HD, HON, DHI, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KSS, LZB, LANC, LEG, LLY, LNC, LMT, L, LXU, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, NOV, NJR, NWL, NXGN, JWN, NVDA, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PRFT, PFE, PICO, POR, PPG, PGR, PEG, PHM, KWR, RL, RJF, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROST, RES, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, STMP, SXI, TXT, TKR, TOL, TRV, TG, UNM, VRTX, V, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WERN, WLK, WEX, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IEO, IHE, IDU, DDM, FXI, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PJP, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/6/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Expeditor International

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Expeditor International (EXPD) (actual trade) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AYI, AES, AFL, ALRM, ALK, AA, AMZN, AFG, AMWD, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AGO, ATO, AVY, AXS, BLL, BIO, BG, CALM, CAL, CE, CX, CIEN, CLF, CNA, CTSH, CMTL, ED, CONN, CLR, CLGX, COTY, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DFS, DOV, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, RE, EVH, FAST, FE, FLEX, FCX, GPS, GD, GE, GILD, EVRG, HIG, HELE, HNI, HOLX, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, IPG, IPI, INTU, IVC, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LAMR, LEG, LNC, MHO, MAN, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MLI, CNR, NTGR, NEU, JWN, ORI, OLN, OMC, PATK, PYPL, PDLI, PICO, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PGR, PEG, PHM, RJF, RGA, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SCHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SUM, AMTD, TPX, TKR, TJX, TRV, UNM, VMC, WWW, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, DDM, ICF, IHF, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/5/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is the Dow transports on the daily scale. I show a few chart patterns on the figure. Let's go through them, starting from the left.

In April, the index shows a head-and-shoulders top. That appears on the chart as L-H-R for left shoulder, head, and right shoulder. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the blue neckline. Unfortunately, the index didn't drop far enough to meet the measure rule target.

The measure rule for most chart patterns measures the height of the pattern and in the case of a top, subtracts that height from the bottom of the pattern (the neckline directly below the head's peak, for this pattern). The result is a target which we can use to measure how often price reaches it.

To the right of the pattern is a double bottom, cleverly labeled DB. It confirmed and led to a big gain. Confirmation in this example is when price closes above the peak between the two valleys. Here the measure rule is the height of the pattern added to the confirmation price.

Next comes a pennant. Those patterns can be handy when they appear in the middle of the run. However, they tend to appear most often beyond the middle, as in this case.

Under LS is a diamond top. This is a small one, but it's handsome.

Finally, mostly recently, is another head-and-shoulders top. In this case, though, it has not been confirmed yet, so it's just squiggles on the price chart.

Based on what I see with the chart pattern indicator, it looks like the head-and-shoulders top will be a dud and we see the index rise to a new high. That could change with world and U.S. events, of course. It's election season. Imagine if Biden gets Covid-19 and both Trump and Biden die. Hmm. That would make for an interesting election. Likely both man's names would appear on the ballot anyway.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 11 days.

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, ADTN, ALRM, ALKS, AMZN, AEO, AAPL, ARW, AGO, ATO, AVY, BSET, BMY, CBT, CLS, CNP, CENX, CF, CHD, CINF, CLX, CNA, CL, CMTL, CONN, GLW, COTY, CW, DVN, ^DJT, D, EXP, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, EXC, FFG, FDP, GPS, GE, GNW, GES, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HOV, HUBG, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, TILE, IPG, INTU, JNJ, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, L, MHO, MAN, MLM, MDCA, MRK, MOS, MLI, MYL, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NI, NBL, NUS, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PICO, POL, PPG, PINC, PFG, PEG, PHM, KWR, RJF, RLI, RHI, ROK, RES, SAIA, SRE, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TPX, TDC, TXT, TKR, RIG, UGI, VMI, VMC, WRB, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYM, IAI, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWK, EWG, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWL, EWU, QLD, IEV, MXI, XLF, XLI, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/2/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AES, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AEL, ABC, AMN, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, AGO, ADP, AVY, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BOOT, BRC, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CX, CENX, CHD, CL, CONN, CLR, CROX, CCK, DECK, DVN, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FDP, GS, HIG, HSII, HSIC, HURC, IEX, IDXX, IIIN, ITGR, INTU, JNJ, KFRC, LAMR, LLY, MAN, MLM, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MS, MOS, MYGN, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NBL, OMI, OXM, PYPL, PETS, PICO, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RHI, SAIA, SMG, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SRDX, TJX, RIG, UGI, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WLK, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FXI, SLV, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PXJ, PJP, MXI, XLE, XHB, XLB, XLU, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 4 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast October Update

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Here's the updated 2020 forecast for October, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 29 September 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

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Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AKAM, ALRM, AMZN, AMED, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, AGO, BBBY, BIG, EPAY, CDNS, CRL, CONN, CR, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CW, DVN, DUK, EXP, EBAY, EIGI, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FIS, FEYE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, GFF, HQY, HSII, HELE, HNI, IDXX, INTU, IVC, LHX, LAWS, LXU, MHO, MLM, MLHR, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NEU, OMCL, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PDLI, PICO, RL, RJF, RHI, SHW, SKX, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TZOO, VMI, VMC, ITA, FTEC, IGE, EIS, EWY, EWT, THD, QLD, DBA, PHO, ROBO, IXC, XHB, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

-- Thomas Bulkowski